Presently, the Sox are 8 games out of first, behind two juggernauts (NY and Tor) and one other team that's really good (TB). It will take some incredible baseball for Boston to pass all three teams to win the division. But they can still get back in the race. If not the division (which is still possible; they have 137 games left, after all), then at least the wild card.
As of today, the Sox are 11th in the AL in runs, at 3.60 per game. They're 9th in ops. Last in stolen bases. 9th in total bases. We have started to see *some* signs of offensive improvement though. In 5 of their last 8 games they've scored 4 runs or more, which isn't saying much, but consider that before this stretch, in their prior 8 games they scored 4+ runs ONCE (4 in a game against TB). They've averaged 3.8 runs per game over their last 8, which again is poor, but it's better than what they have been doing. And in the last 3 games they've scored 5, 4, and 5 runs. So...baby steps.
Their overall pitching is just below average as well. Team ERA of 3.64 (league average is 3.61). Starters who have pitched 80% of their starts have done well; Pivetta has been miserable though. And the bullpen has been just awful lately.
So how can they get back into it?
1. Continued signs of life from the offense. Take pressure off the pitching staff. Keep scoring 4+ runs. They don't need to be the 27 Yankees but they do need to put up some runs. They've taken small steps forward in this way. Nice to see Story doing something.
2. Figure out Houck/Whitlock's best usage. These are two of the best pitchers on the staff. Figure out the optimal roles for them. I'm not sure what that is. I wonder if Pivetta went to the pen if his velocity, and thus his effectiveness, would play up. A rotation of Eovaldi, Wacha, Whitlock, Hill, and Houck - based on their performances so far - would give the Sox a good chance to be in every single game. And Pivetta might improve while in the pen.
3. Get SOMEONE to be a dominant, consistent, reliable reliever. Robles has been good until he hasn't. Others have flashed, but largely this bullpen has been inconsistent and it's killing them. Someone - preferably two guys - needs to step up in a major way. I have no idea who that would be though.
4. Stop with the "take effective starters out in the 5th" philosophy. You can do that when you have a quality bullpen. Right now the Sox do not have a quality bullpen. Their best pitchers are starters. They need to keep pitching as long as they can be effective. I'm not talking about asking them to throw 120 pitches, obviously. But they keep getting pulled way too early, IMO. That's fine if they're showing signs of being less effective, AND you have a quality bullpen behind them. But this team can't survive getting 4-5 innings out of their starters and asking their shaky, inconsistent bullpen pitch 4-5 innings (or more if it goes extras, which has happened a lot this year so far) in tight, high-stress games, especially given the struggles of the offense. If you're up 9-1 after 5, sure. But these games have been, for the most part, very tight.
5. Do some serious evaluation of the guys in the minors to see who can help. Pitchers, hitters, whomever. There has to be someone in AAA that can help the major league club.
So I would have as a team goal to get back to .500 by the end of May. That means they would need to go 15-9 the rest of the month (.625, which seems high but it's not that much over a small sample). Get to .500 by the end of May, then you've got 113 games from there to build into a winning team. Baseball really is a marathon, so you can get back into it over enough time.
As of today, the Sox are 11th in the AL in runs, at 3.60 per game. They're 9th in ops. Last in stolen bases. 9th in total bases. We have started to see *some* signs of offensive improvement though. In 5 of their last 8 games they've scored 4 runs or more, which isn't saying much, but consider that before this stretch, in their prior 8 games they scored 4+ runs ONCE (4 in a game against TB). They've averaged 3.8 runs per game over their last 8, which again is poor, but it's better than what they have been doing. And in the last 3 games they've scored 5, 4, and 5 runs. So...baby steps.
Their overall pitching is just below average as well. Team ERA of 3.64 (league average is 3.61). Starters who have pitched 80% of their starts have done well; Pivetta has been miserable though. And the bullpen has been just awful lately.
So how can they get back into it?
1. Continued signs of life from the offense. Take pressure off the pitching staff. Keep scoring 4+ runs. They don't need to be the 27 Yankees but they do need to put up some runs. They've taken small steps forward in this way. Nice to see Story doing something.
2. Figure out Houck/Whitlock's best usage. These are two of the best pitchers on the staff. Figure out the optimal roles for them. I'm not sure what that is. I wonder if Pivetta went to the pen if his velocity, and thus his effectiveness, would play up. A rotation of Eovaldi, Wacha, Whitlock, Hill, and Houck - based on their performances so far - would give the Sox a good chance to be in every single game. And Pivetta might improve while in the pen.
3. Get SOMEONE to be a dominant, consistent, reliable reliever. Robles has been good until he hasn't. Others have flashed, but largely this bullpen has been inconsistent and it's killing them. Someone - preferably two guys - needs to step up in a major way. I have no idea who that would be though.
4. Stop with the "take effective starters out in the 5th" philosophy. You can do that when you have a quality bullpen. Right now the Sox do not have a quality bullpen. Their best pitchers are starters. They need to keep pitching as long as they can be effective. I'm not talking about asking them to throw 120 pitches, obviously. But they keep getting pulled way too early, IMO. That's fine if they're showing signs of being less effective, AND you have a quality bullpen behind them. But this team can't survive getting 4-5 innings out of their starters and asking their shaky, inconsistent bullpen pitch 4-5 innings (or more if it goes extras, which has happened a lot this year so far) in tight, high-stress games, especially given the struggles of the offense. If you're up 9-1 after 5, sure. But these games have been, for the most part, very tight.
5. Do some serious evaluation of the guys in the minors to see who can help. Pitchers, hitters, whomever. There has to be someone in AAA that can help the major league club.
So I would have as a team goal to get back to .500 by the end of May. That means they would need to go 15-9 the rest of the month (.625, which seems high but it's not that much over a small sample). Get to .500 by the end of May, then you've got 113 games from there to build into a winning team. Baseball really is a marathon, so you can get back into it over enough time.