How much would you be willing to pay for Bregman?

[kazuneko]

While it looks like 75% of us aren't interested in Bregman, I am assuming for many of us that's because he is expected to sign a long, expensive contract. Thought it might be interesting to see what the contract limits are hand how much that changes opinions. Personally I'd love Bregman on a two year deal, but am generally against signing him because I can't imagine him settling for such a short deal.

 

[Seels]

I don't want him. I don't get the roster makeup ideas behind taking him, and personally root against him as a player. If the roster construction made sense, 4/110 makes the most sense, but again I do not want him and him signing would actively make me question the FO.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

While it looks like 75% of us aren't interested in Bregman, I am assuming for many of us that's because he is expected to sign a long, expensive contract. Thought it might be interesting to see what the contract limits are hand how much that changes opinions. Personally I'd love Bregman on a two year deal, but am generally against signing him because I can't imagine him settling for such a short deal.

I voted no.
He’s either getting a 5-7 year deal or a one year deal. I would be okay on a one year- but was reminded here by someone that it’d cost a draft pick. Do no.

 

[Cassvt2023]

Since we were allowed to vote for multiples (kind of odd) I voted for 3/yr $75m and don't want him and this is my reasoning. It mostly has to do with the QO. You can't give that up for only a year or even two of him. If they had to sign him, I think he would be worth 25 mil for 3 years (even though there is no way he will sign for that) I hate the idea of him on a long term deal, as they never work out well in the end. I'm looking at you Panda and Anthony Rendon.

 

[Rasputin]

Two years is the max for me. Unless he's playing third, which seems to be out of the question, his only role is as a transitional player to hold down second if Grissom can't and Campbell isn't ready.

 

[Nixon Now!!]

I've enjoyed watching Bregman with the Astros (except when they're beating the Red Sox). But I agree that Bregman would be a transitional player and that's not worth a draft pick.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

I voted on the 6/$156m, but would go up to 6/$168m/$28m. However that is only for him playing 3b.

I‘m extremely confident that out of Anthony / Campbell / Grissom the Red Sox will hit on 2 of them being bats don’t need a platoon and can cover LF and 2b (though I find it extremely unlikely they’re lucky enough to hit on all 3).

No interest at all in Bregman at 2b.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I'm a no. However, if it weren't for the draft pick that's attached, I can squint and see the usefulness of a one year deal as a hedge against none of the kids being ready or able to step in. I don't know if it's worth $35M for that insurance, but for one year that's a minor quibble at best.

 

[Coachster]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-eaPelZgeaA

 

[Comfortably Lomb]

I don't really want him, at least not a year or two from now. And he costs a draft pick too? Barf.

 

[grimshaw]

I'd go 5/135ish but his market could collapse (not buying the Tigers rumor. Seems like typical Boras bullshit). I'd be really surprised if he got longer than 5.

 

[DavidTai]

How much would you price the pick you'd be giving away at, war-wise? I'd consider that in salary considerations.

 

[grimshaw]

How much would you price the pick you'd be giving away at, war-wise? I'd consider that in salary considerations.

Edit: NM

 

[CKDexterHaven]

Depends. On:
• If Devers moves to DH
• Three/four years max.
• Signing him is not an excuse not to sign a top level reliever.

Changing my vote toward more money and years after just watching a 2024 highlight reel.

• Good bet to play a lot of games.
• I like his swing and eyes on the ball at contact—might be the next Mikey Doubles, and put holes in the Monsta.
• We need more impact bats, the kinds of players who are ‘tough outs’ and put stress on opposing pitchers.

 

[flredsoxfan]

I would like to have Bregman - only because I think he will love Fenway and be a real threat there. But I think it means Devers to 1B/DH and maybe trading Casas. If they can get a front line pitcher and another reliever for Casas it might turn out all right. I think Devers is a future DH down the road regardless of getting Bregman or not.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

5/145

 

[radsoxfan]

I voted yes on:

2/55
3/75
4/110
5/130

6/156 I'm on the fence, might do that too.

1 year I'd probably do also.... though 35M seems like too much, especially given the draft pick.

It's possible none of these contracts are even in the ballpark and the Tigers are going to offer 7/200 or something crazy.

This is also contingent on Bregman being 3B and moving Devers to DH. No thanks signing him to play 2B.

I'm not convinced Bregman will be a very good 2B, then you're still stuck with a pretty bad IF D with Casas/Devers on the corners and an out of position Bregman. Plus you've blocked Campbell to some degree (I know he can play anywhere but 2B seems most logical).

 

[Cassvt2023]

5/145

yuck.

 

[Cassvt2023]

I voted yes on:

2/55
3/75
4/110
5/130

6/156 I'm on the fence, might do that too.

1 year I'd probably do also.... though 35M seems like too much, especially given the draft pick.

It's possible none of these contracts are even in the ballpark and the Tigers are going to offer 7/200 or something crazy.

This is also contingent on Bregman being 3B and moving Devers to DH. No thanks signing him to play 2B.

I'm not convinced Bregman will be a very good 2B, then you're still stuck with a pretty bad IF D with Casas/Devers on the corners and an out of position Bregman. Plus you've blocked Campbell to some degree (I know he can play anywhere but 2B seems most logical).

no. What are you guys thinking with this crazy talk? we would be regretting this deal at the end of next year for gods sake.

 

[radsoxfan]

no. What are you guys thinking with this crazy talk? we would be regretting this deal at the end of next year for gods sake.

You've made your point plenty of times, you don't like Bregman. Got it.

In a vacuum the guy is certainly worth 25-30M a season on a short term contract. Our corner defense stinks and our offense needs help. If people want to keep trying Devers at 3B, bank on all of our prospects, and see how things develop.... fair enough.

Being out on the guy at any cost sounds a lot crazier to me, but I suppose everyone has their reasons.

 

[YTF]

You've made your point plenty of times, you don't like Bregman. Got it.

In a vacuum the guy is certainly worth 25-30M a season on a short term contract. Our corner defense stinks and our offense needs help. If people want to keep trying Devers at 3B, bank on all of our prospects, and see how things develop.... fair enough.

Being out on the guy at any cost sounds a lot crazier to me, but I suppose everyone has their reasons.

This is where I'm at. 3 years 27-28M if we can move Devers off from 3B and into the DH slot, but there is other work that needs to be done to make this work.

 

[Yo La Tengo]

You've made your point plenty of times, you don't like Bregman. Got it.

In a vacuum the guy is certainly worth 25-30M a season on a short term contract. Our corner defense stinks and our offense needs help. If people want to keep trying Devers at 3B, bank on all of our prospects, and see how things develop.... fair enough.

Being out on the guy at any cost sounds a lot crazier to me, but I suppose everyone has their reasons.

The "in a vacuum" part is the issue. Will Bregman be worth $28 million next year as a third baseman? I'd bet yes. Even if it is a one year deal, if that means subsidizing other moves and losing a draft pick and blocking prospects... is he worth $38 million + a second rounder, etc? Probably not.

And if the plan is to put him at second base, that is taking a huge leap of faith that he would be competent defensively. His glove would have to be excellent to justify a superstar contract with his offensive numbers in decline over three straight seasons. While digging around, I found an article about Bregman taking grounders at 1B last year because of ongoing problems with his throwing elbow. He had bone chips removed last month, the same procedure that he had in 2018. Bregman described the issue as "gremlins" in his elbow, which does raise some flags about learning a new defensive position at age 31.

 

[YTF]

The "in a vacuum" part is the issue. Will Bregman be worth $28 million next year as a third baseman? I'd bet yes. Even if it is a one year deal, if that means subsidizing other moves and losing a draft pick and blocking prospects... is he worth $38 million + a second rounder, etc? Probably not.

And if the plan is to put him at second base, that is taking a huge leap of faith that he would be competent defensively. His glove would have to be excellent to justify a superstar contract with his offensive numbers in decline over three straight seasons. While digging around, I found an article about Bregman taking grounders at 1B last year because of ongoing problems with his throwing elbow. He had bone chips removed last month, the same procedure that he had in 2018. Bregman described the issue as "gremlins" in his elbow, which does raise some flags about learning a new defensive position at age 31.

I know that it's just a matter of semantics, but concerning the lost draft pick I just see it as transferring the one received for Pivetta.

 

[grimshaw]

The "in a vacuum" part is the issue. Will Bregman be worth $28 million next year as a third baseman? I'd bet yes. Even if it is a one year deal, if that means subsidizing other moves and losing a draft pick and blocking prospects... is he worth $38 million + a second rounder, etc? Probably not.

Edit: NM, misinterpreted the rule.

 

[simplicio]

No, the Astros get a 4th round pick (since they were over CBT, otherwise it'd be 2nd), we'd lose our 2nd round one.
https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/qualifying-offer

 

[moondog80]

I know the Sox have scored recently with Anthony and Campbell as non-1st round picks, but losing one 2nd rounder isn’t *that* big of a deal relative to the value you would hope to get from Bregman on a deal to the Sox’ liking. It doesn’t move the needle much for me.

 

[marcoscutaro]

The "in a vacuum" part is the issue. Will Bregman be worth $28 million next year as a third baseman? I'd bet yes. Even if it is a one year deal, if that means subsidizing other moves and losing a draft pick and blocking prospects... is he worth $38 million + a second rounder, etc? Probably not.

And if the plan is to put him at second base, that is taking a huge leap of faith that he would be competent defensively. His glove would have to be excellent to justify a superstar contract with his offensive numbers in decline over three straight seasons. While digging around, I found an article about Bregman taking grounders at 1B last year because of ongoing problems with his throwing elbow. He had bone chips removed last month, the same procedure that he had in 2018. Bregman described the issue as "gremlins" in his elbow, which does raise some flags about learning a new defensive position at age 31.

on the other hand, it would explain his willingness to move to 2B if there are long term concerns about his elbow holding up and the bone chips issue recurring.

 

[simplicio]

I know the Sox have scored recently with Anthony and Campbell as non-1st round picks, but losing one 2nd rounder isn’t *that* big of a deal relative to the value you would hope to get from Bregman on a deal to the Sox’ liking. It doesn’t move the needle much for me.

I disagree, I think picks are extremely valuable, in terms of actual player talent but also draft pool size/flexibility and pure talent depth. Does the Crochet trade get made if it's taking away our 2nd and 3rd best prospects instead of 4th and 5th?

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

10000% no on Bregman to 2nd. WTF is this even being discussed here? There's no way in hell that that would improve the Infield defense in any way shape or form. I don't have to squint hard to see either Campbell or Grissom being almost if not AS good as Bregman might be just in 2025 and I don't have to squint at all to see how either of those guys would be a million times better than him defensively there!
I'm 90% no on him in general. 10% yes if it's just a one year deal but even then, I'd rather roll with the "status quo" (which, BTW, isn't the actual status quo since both the SS and 2B and 1B positions are expected to be significantly different than they were for the majority of 2024 already) and get Campbell at 1B and 3B duties all through Spring Training and hope he can break camp there in a platoon DH roll with Casas and Devers. It seems so obvious it's the best possibility- yes, it requires a lot of optimism.... but IMO, a more reasonable level of optimism over expecting Bregman improving the 2B defense over last season

 

[moondog80]

I disagree, I think picks are extremely valuable, in terms of actual player talent but also draft pool size/flexibility and pure talent depth. Does the Crochet trade get made if it's taking away our 2nd and 3rd best prospects instead of 4th and 5th?

Of course they are valuable. But Bregman — again, at the right price — would be valuable too. Everything matters and the pick should be part of the equation. But by itself, it’s not a relatively large piece, certainly not a deal breaker.

That said, I don’t think “the right price”, in the Sox’ eyes, is in the cards.

 

[RS2004foreever]

Steamer projections via Tyler Milliken- I know they are just that:
1. Rafael Devers - 130
2. Triston Casas - 124
3. Masataka Yoshida - 117
4. Kristian Campbell - 114
5. Rob Refsnyder - 111
6. Jarren Duran - 111
7. Wilyer Abreu - 108
8. Vaughn Grissom - 103
9. Roman Anthony - 102
Steamer projects Bregman at 122. I would rather let Campell play second than sign Bregman to play second. By this measure, Bregman does not provide much of an offensive upgrade over Devers/Yoshida/Casas. Profar is 116 and Alonso is 125.
None of the remaining FA really move the needle a lot in terms of offense.

 

[simplicio]

Of course they are valuable. But Bregman — again, at the right price — would be valuable too. Everything matters and the pick should be part of the equation. But by itself, it’s not a relatively large piece, certainly not a deal breaker.

That said, I don’t think “the right price”, in the Sox’ eyes, is in the cards.

If he was somebody that actually fit a hole on the team I wouldn't let the pick get in the way. But I don't see him as a big enough upgrade to be worth the cost.

 

[grimshaw]

10000% no on Bregman to 2nd. WTF is this even being discussed here? There's no way in hell that that would improve the Infield defense in any way shape or form. I don't have to squint hard to see either Campbell or Grissom being almost if not AS good as Bregman might be just in 2025 and I don't have to squint at all to see how either of those guys would be a million times better than him defensively there!
.It seems so obvious it's the best possibility- yes, it requires a lot of optimism.... but IMO, a more reasonable level of optimism over expecting Bregman improving the 2B defense over last season

Sometimes this board makes a huge deal for no reason about positional switches. We're talking about a fractional win if Bregman is Valdez or worse and Grissom and/or Campbell are neutral defensively. Do you really think Grissom who couldn't cut it at SS (and Bregman could) and has played 200 more career innings at 2b is going to be a million times better? And if they do sign him, it's very likely he plays the vast majority of 3b over the course of his contract.

Good lord. It's not like they'd trotting out Justin Turner or Connor Wong on the Bregman side of things. Or Trevor Story on the Grissom side of things.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Sometimes this board makes a huge deal for no reason about positional switches. We're talking about a win or two at worst if Bregman is a below average 2b and Grissom or Campbell are really good. If they are average and Bregman is a complete flop, we're still talking about fractional wins. Do you really think Grissom who couldn't cut it at SS (and Bregman could) and has played 200 more career innings at 2b is going to be a million times better? And if they do sign him, it's very likely he plays a ton at 3b over the course of his contract.

Good lord. It's not like they're trotting out Justin Turner or Connor Wong.

Okay... I was being a bit dramatic and hyperbolic here. But yes... at least.... a hundred thousand times better. I don't know where exactly but I think OCD SS found some numbers of Bregman's at SS and they were just awful. There's no way he's improving over what Grissom or Campbell would do defensively at 2B. Zero.

 

[grimshaw]

Okay... I was being a bit dramatic and hyperbolic here. But yes... at least.... a hundred thousand times better. I don't know where exactly but I think OCD SS found some numbers of Bregman's at SS and they were just awful. There's no way he's improving over what Grissom or Campbell would do defensively at 2B. Zero.

What numbers are you looking at? This is mystifying.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/alex-bregman/17678/stats?position=3B#advanced-fielding

Compare to Grissom.
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/vaughn-grissom/26031/stats?position=2B#advanced-fielding

"But he's a lot older and that was 5 years ago" is a much better argument. But I'm still not seeing a substantial impact.

I will now yield my Bregman arguments. Him blocking Campbell who could be very solid right away, and the team doing gymnastics to maximize wins is a completely legitimate take which I get. Him improving the overall team at least in the short term is where I will stand and is most important to me. Both are fine points. It's just a difference of opinion.

 

[OCD SS]

Look at Bregman’s very bad fielding numbers as a SS, which are also 5 years old. He doesn’t have enough of a sample at 2B, but his middle infield performance shouldn’t be expected to improve now that he’s past 30. Also if he has the arm for 3B (what’s this about bone chips in his throwing elbow?) it stands to reason his range, not throwing was the issue at SS.

 

[Yo La Tengo]

Look at Bregman’s very bad fielding numbers as a SS, which are also 5 years old. He doesn’t have enough of a sample at 2B, but his middle infield performance shouldn’t be expected to improve now that he’s past 30. Also if he has the arm for 3B (what’s this about bone chips in his throwing elbow?) it stands to reason his range, not throwing was the issue at SS.

For Defensive Runs Saves, Bregman's rankings at SS by year are 0, -1, 0, and +3. The last year he played there was 2019. His DRS rankings at 3B are +2, +8, 0, +3, -5, +5, +6.

Savant has his numbers at SS as 0, -1, -3, and -2 Outs Above Average. His numbers at 3B are +2, +5, +2, +2, +1, 0, +8, +2, and +6.

I think defensive metrics like these are pretty rudimentary, but the trend is consistent that Bregman ranks much better as a 3B than SS. Based on this comparison, I would have very little confidence that he would be a great or very good defensive second baseman from age 31 forward.

 

[grimshaw]

Look at Bregman’s very bad fielding numbers as a SS, which are also 5 years old. He doesn’t have enough of a sample at 2B, but his middle infield performance shouldn’t be expected to improve now that he’s past 30. Also if he has the arm for 3B (what’s this about bone chips in his throwing elbow?) it stands to reason his range, not throwing was the issue at SS.

I am genuinely asking, not disagreeing. Where are the specific very bad fielding numbers? His DRS has been completely neutral. Grissom was at -7 at short in 168 innings which is about 1/9th of a season.

I doubt he'll be worse than whomever would be playing there anyhow unless they want to roll the dice with Campbell and not sign someone which is my 2nd choice.

There are your Justin Turner's who had to move off of 2nd and excelled at 3b, but then you have Max Muncy who has been better at 2b than 3rd (excellent at both).

 

[OCD SS]

Thanks to @Yo La Tengo for posting fuller numbers; I was going from memory on FG UZR splits that I posted last week. “Very Bad” May be an overstatement (and only applied to 2B), but then you have to add 5 years to the analysis. If that’s the basis for offering him a $150+M contract, then if he & Cora can think he can do it for sure no problem bro, Breslow needs to ask “But what if you suck at it?”

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I know that it's just a matter of semantics, but concerning the lost draft pick I just see it as transferring the one received for Pivetta.

Yeah, but even if you're indifferent about having an extra pick in the 2nd round, you're losing the slotted bonus money as well, which could have an impact on who you can draft with the picks you have left. Last year, the Red Sox spot was slotted around $1.6M. That's a chunk of change in a ~$10M pool.

 

[EricFeczko]

I don't think he makes sense for the red sox -- I can tolerate him on a 1 or 2 year deal, but this is a hitter with a near career low BB/K ratio, OBP so I voted not at any price -- in addition he's been ineffective against lefties since 2022 (108, 95, 100 wRC+ for 2022, 2023, 2024), so he's not an effective right-handed bat that the red sox even need.


The slotted bonus money has more potential future value and bregman isn't a gamechanger like Soto, this should be a pass unless its on a "prove it" contract to give Campbell/mayer/anthony more time to cook in the minors.

 

[Saints Rest]

Can we spend this money instead on getting a 3B/IF defensive coaching savant? What Adrain Beltre doing? Perry Hill, Walt Weiss, Rafael Belliard, Mike Gallego? These are the names that AI tells me are considered the top IF defense coaches.

 

[YTF]

Yeah, but even if you're indifferent about having an extra pick in the 2nd round, you're losing the slotted bonus money as well, which could have an impact on who you can draft with the picks you have left. Last year, the Red Sox spot was slotted around $1.6M. That's a chunk of change in a ~$10M pool.

Fair enough.

 

[Margo McCready]

I’d rather trade for a 26 year old controllable Alex Bregman than pay market value for the post-30 version so give me the draft pick and slot money instead. Hell, maybe you get lucky and that pick turns into an Alex Bregman himself. Sure, in a vacuum he is an excellent player, but the cost of paying for the inevitable decline seems awfully high for a team that already employs Devers, Casas, Story, Rafaela, Campbell, Grissom, and Hamilton. The fit here isn’t exactly signing JD Martinez to put the cherry on top of your World Series or Bust staring lineup.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Tigers and Blue Jays most likely destinations / Heyman radio spot today
https://x.com/BOSSportsGordo/status/1874552669303677051?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1874552669303677051|twgr^6a017bf56ace3b4e8e434a40d73daed0c717231f|twcon^s1_&ref_url=https://www.bluejaysinsider.com/mlb-team/toronto-blue-jays/major-update-announced-as-things-continue-to-heat-up-between-alex-bregman-and-the-toronto-blue-jays

 

[kazuneko]

Looks like only 18% are okay with 5 years or more, even as Bregman has already rejected a six year deal from Houston. Less than 5% want to match what Houston offered and only one person (.3%) is on board for offering 7 years (which is what he is seeking). That said, 36% are on board with signing him for 4 years/$110 million.
Looks pretty clear that the vast majority of SOSH is against signing him for anything close to what he’s looking for (6 years +) or even if his price drops significantly (4 years) though a majority (54%) would sign him if his market collapses and he’s forced to sign a 3 year deal, with that going up to 74% if his price slips to 3 years/$75 million.