How Much is too Much for Soto?

[radsoxfan]

As for what is too much for Soto, I am not sure we have enough information to make this determination. For example, wouldn't you want the Sox finances and projections for this exercise?

Agreed, so hard to say. And the contract specifics matter a lot as well.

Generally speaking, for me...

500M: YES
550M: Yes
600M: yes, barely

Over 600M: No thanks. Mostly because I don't have faith there is some massive change to the budget projections for the team and in that case we're better off diversifying (and leaning pitching).

 

[E5 Yaz]

Agreed, so hard to say. And the contract specifics matter a lot as well.

Generally speaking, for me...

500M: YES
550M: Yes
600M: yes, barely

Over 600M: No thanks. Mostly because I don't have faith there is some massive change to the budget projections for the team and in that case we're better off diversifying (and leaning pitching).

This is where I've decided to come down on this. The part that concerns me, though, is the nagging feeling that a justification will be made that Soto is generational, thus the attempt to sign him to such a deal ... and they'll just backtrack and not spend on other top tier free agents, for various and sundry "logical" reasons.

 

[chrisfont9]

I said $700m. They can tolerate a lot with their revenue and LT situation before it impacts their ability to sign other needed pieces, particularly since Soto would pay some of his salary through increased revenue compared to the status quo. But there has to be some threshold where it drags down their flexibility? Hopefully this is something we can debate until we get the answer in 10-15 years.

 

[chrisfont9]

This is where I've decided to come down on this. The part that concerns me, though, is the nagging feeling that a justification will be made that Soto is generational, thus the attempt to sign him to such a deal ... and they'll just backtrack and not spend on other top tier free agents, for various and sundry "logical" reasons.

I understand the concern, but surely they know that Soto and nothing else buys only a temporary bump in ticket sales and other revenue, versus really going for it and contending for or winning titles? Even with Soto and all the position player talent, they absolutely do not have the pitching to turn around the last few years, barring a run of 100% health. They would be foolish to stop. And Soto would start planning for the first opt-out.

 

[E5 Yaz]

I understand the concern, but surely they know that Soto and nothing else buys only a temporary bump in ticket sales and other revenue, versus really going for it and contending for or winning titles? Even with Soto and all the position player talent, they absolutely do not have the pitching to turn around the last few years, barring a run of 100% health. They would be foolish to stop. And Soto would start planning for the first opt-out.

Agreed, but what I'm saying is that they backtrack if they don't sign Soto

 

[chrisfont9]

Agreed, but what I'm saying is that they backtrack if they don't sign Soto

Oh right, sorry. Hope not but I won’t assume anything.

 

[AlNipper49]

I don’t care what the number is as long as the Sox have a budget with an actual plan to surround him, if signed, with GFIN pieces.

 

[jbupstate]

I don’t care what the number is as long as the Sox have a budget with an actual plan to surround him, if signed, with GFIN pieces.

Seems like the roster is about to get much younger with potential for great growth in the big 4 plus Casas, Abreu, Duran.

What are the GFIN pieces to add?

 

[OCD SS]

Seems like the roster is about to get much younger with potential for great growth in the big 4 plus Casas, Abreu, Duran.

What are the GFIN pieces to add?

Pitching

 

[pdub]

Seems like the roster is about to get much younger with potential for great growth in the big 4 plus Casas, Abreu, Duran.

What are the GFIN pieces to add?

Fried or Burnes. I suspect they'll push harder on Crochett if they do sign Soto.

 

[jbupstate]

Pitching

My bad… I’m geared to the lineup.

Couple non tax or MLB Insider questions…

Do we think the Sox make the playoffs next year if they add -

a. Soto
b. Burnes
c. Fried
d. Soto Combo (Burnes, Fried, Flaherty, Evo, etc)
e. Combos of the above
f. Promotions from AAA
g. Injury luck

 

[Mike473]

Sotoms signing is gaining momentum, and the numbers being thrown around are truly astronomical. So where do you tap out in the bidding? Not where do JWH/ FSG, we’ll learn that soon enough, but looking at the fact that the Red Sox are still going to have to pay for a 40-man roster, at what point can the money be better spent elsewhere?

Edit: I forgot to mention that the above numbers are the present day value, but since Soto doesn’t seem to want any deferrals, it’s a minor point.

Get the Soto deal done and go from there.

 

[AlNipper49]

Pitching

Yup, pitching, pitching, pitching and perhaps an upgrade at C. Oh, and pitching.

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

The answer is pretty much, "whatever it takes to get him away from the Yankees".

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

I voted for "there is no limit", simply because I really don't think if they miss out on Soto they're going to turn around and use the money on a #1 starter (much less two #1 starters).

Which isn't to say if they miss out on Soto they won't spend, but I think it'll be more like mid range deals (so lets say something like singing Flaherty or Eovaldi and then the bullpen, maybe they find someone that will take Yoshida and then get another bat, but I don't see there being much market for him at all - and if it came to it I'd eat the money and make him a bench bat, but I don't see FSG doing that). I just don't think it's a question of do we spend $600m on Soto or $200m on Burnes, $200m on Fried and $150m on Adames.

Obviously accounting for "anyone can get injured at any time" but Soto might be the "safest" huge money free agent bet I can think of since Manny and Alex Rodriguez. If I thought that they'd turn around and allocate the money to 3 different ~$175m contracts as mentioned above, then I'd put the cap at $650m. I don't think that.

Spend whatever it takes, figure out the rest of the budget (and line up) after.

 

[cantor44]

My bad… I’m geared to the lineup.

Couple non tax or MLB Insider questions…

Do we think the Sox make the playoffs next year if they add -

a. Soto
b. Burnes
c. Fried
d. Soto Combo (Burnes, Fried, Flaherty, Evo, etc)
e. Combos of the above
f. Promotions from AAA
g. Injury luck

d, f, and g
(what's the difference between option d and e?)

 

[TheDogMan]

Agreed, so hard to say. And the contract specifics matter a lot as well.

Generally speaking, for me...

500M: YES
550M: Yes
600M: yes, barely

Over 600M: No thanks. Mostly because I don't have faith there is some massive change to the budget projections for the team and in that case we're better off diversifying (and leaning pitching).

I think 700 million is the max for 14 years. Heck, the way salaries are escalating 50 mil will be a bargain if he ages like David Ortiz. We should not look at the deal as it reales to baseball today but rather where it trends in the future.

 

[WilhelmScream]

I think you can feel free to go a little nuts on the contract because he is going to opt out in three or four or five (wherever the first opt out is) years. Money gets sillier every single offseason and he will be able to command more. It's win win tbh. Get his prime, more than likely avoid his decline. Trade him for a kings ransom in three years if you know he's gone.

You will have lots of options and most of them would be beneficial.

 

[RG33]

I think 700 million is the max for 14 years. Heck, the way salaries are escalating 50 mil will be a bargain if he ages like David Ortiz. We should not look at the deal as it reales to baseball today but rather where it trends in the future.

Judge signed for 9-years $360M two years ago and Devers obviously came in at 10 years $315M. Both are already great deals from a MV standpoint. Soto at $50M will look like a deal in 3 years, which is why he’ll be opting out after year 4 or 5 to lock in at $75M per year for his next deal.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Soto at $50M will look like a deal in 3 years, which is why he’ll be opting out after year 4 or 5 to lock in at $75M per year for his next deal.

I've been wondering about this. Will $50M look like a bargain? Who out there is likely to top it? Acuna and Witt have long-term deals. Gunnar Henderson, perhaps. But where is that next player in the chain to top Soto?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I've been wondering about this. Will $50M look like a bargain? Who out there is likely to top it? Acuna and Witt have long-term deals. Gunnar Henderson, perhaps. But where is that next player in the chain to top Soto?

I think it's less about who can top it and more about more players filling in the gap between him and the Ohtani/Trout/Betts/Judge contracts (from a total value perspective). It's raising the floor more so than the ceiling. His $50M might look like a bargain not because other players are getting paid more than him but because a bunch of inferior players will cost barely less than him.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I've been wondering about this. Will $50M look like a bargain? Who out there is likely to top it? Acuna and Witt have long-term deals. Gunnar Henderson, perhaps. But where is that next player in the chain to top Soto?

I think Witt had a chance before he signed his 11/288 deal last ST, which is looking like an absolute steal for the Royals.

 

[simplicio]

I've been wondering about this. Will $50M look like a bargain? Who out there is likely to top it? Acuna and Witt have long-term deals. Gunnar Henderson, perhaps. But where is that next player in the chain to top Soto?

Skenes maybe.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I've been wondering about this. Will $50M look like a bargain? Who out there is likely to top it? Acuna and Witt have long-term deals. Gunnar Henderson, perhaps. But where is that next player in the chain to top Soto?

You mean, besides Roman Anthony?

Kristian Campbell?

 

[AlNipper49]

Vlad is really the only one next year and in no rational world will he come close to Soto.

 

[sodenj5]

You mean, besides Roman Anthony?

Kristian Campbell?

I know this was said in jest, but I was thinking about this yesterday (no football) and if everything broke absolutely right for Roman Anthony, he has the type of profile of a guy that can be “the next guy” to get a record breaking deal.

#1 prospect in baseball, high power ceiling, good enough defense, playing for a big market team that might be very competitive during his arbitration years.

Obviously there’s a massive gulf between where he is today and where he would need to be in 7 or 8 years from now, but it feels like if there’s a superstar in the Sox system, Anthony could be him.

Agents will point at Soto and Ohtani deals for years to come trying to get their guys close, but the reality is, those two guys are unicorns. Ohtani should be self explanatory, but for a guy as good and as young as Soto to be an unrestricted free agent is exceedingly rare.

 

[koufax37]

Mea culpa on Ohtani’s present day value; I looked it up, mistyped it, and then went right on using that wrong number to build out the increments.

Anyway, I feel like the offer also has to include accounting for some kind of force majeure risk.

10/460 for an epic two-way superstar coming of an injury at his age 30 year.

Soto will definitely go above that in years, dollars, and AAV. Comparing to 10/700 is not a thing.

Ohtani is a unicorn so I will not bet against him. I typically would not love the future looking value of a RHP who throws 100 and has had two UCL surgeries paying for his 31-40 seasons, but he is so unique. I certainly think he will earn 10/460 and likely be a big value add for the Dodgers.

But Soto is a different animal. ARod was better through his age 25 season, but with some of that value in speed and defense, his contract sounded twice as expensive as people were expecting, and after ten years he had been worth more than than 10/252.

Excited to see him leave the Yankees, and happy to outbid the Mets and look silly until we look smart. Our cost controlled young players give us the opportunity to rearrange the roster around him however best allocates remaining resources with a ton of flexibility. I think the Yankees are in a slightly tougher roster situation in their minds, and are underbidding as a result, and that delights me.

 

[koufax37]

I know this was said in jest, but I was thinking about this yesterday (no football) and if everything broke absolutely right for Roman Anthony, he has the type of profile of a guy that can be “the next guy” to get a record breaking deal.

#1 prospect in baseball, high power ceiling, good enough defense, playing for a big market team that might be very competitive during his arbitration years.

Obviously there’s a massive gulf between where he is today and where he would need to be in 7 or 8 years from now, but it feels like if there’s a superstar in the Sox system, Anthony could be him.

Agents will point at Soto and Ohtani deals for years to come trying to get their guys close, but the reality is, those two guys are unicorns. Ohtani should be self explanatory, but for a guy as good and as young as Soto to be an unrestricted free agent is exceedingly rare.

I agree. I would overpay him to extend crazy years at whatever dollars it takes to make him say yes (Tatis as the role model). And right now I will take the over on any career WAR line anybody would set. Everything lines up for him to be even better than people are imagining right now.

 

[pk1627]

I said $700 and Pepin agrees. I’m a bit stunned that FSG has hit the $600 million threshold. Call it what you want, but it’s not cheap or disengaged.

https://x.com/marino_pepen/status/1864313113228509255?s=46

 

[SouthernBoSox]

I said $700 and Pepin agrees. I’m a bit stunned that FSG has hit the $600 million threshold. Call it what you want, but it’s not cheap or disengaged.

https://x.com/marino_pepen/status/1864313113228509255?s=46

14 year/$700mm at $50/AAV is the point where things to start feeling a bit wheezy. I do ultimately feel it will be in that range

 

[Hank Scorpio]

14 year/$700mm at $50/AAV is the point where things to start feeling a bit wheezy. I do ultimately feel it will be in that range

I still think that’s “doable” - and it’s not my money. But also I wonder how much over the LT threshold FSG is willing to go.

They could still afford to sign Fried and bring aboard Crochet, and not break the $261M threshold, but it would leave little room for mid-season help and additional bullpen arms.

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

I said $700 and Pepin agrees. I’m a bit stunned that FSG has hit the $600 million threshold. Call it what you want, but it’s not cheap or disengaged.

https://x.com/marino_pepen/status/1864313113228509255?s=46

Honestly, I'm not all that stunned that Boston will go up there, and I don't think they're cheap and have never said that. I think they would certainly pay up for Soto. FWIW, if he does in fact hit free agency next season (and the Red Sox haven't landed Soto) I wouldn't be at all surprised to see them massively involved in trying to land Vladdy Jr either.

Admittedly, my concern is (and always has been) what the pivot will be when Soto becomes a Yankee (or Met). I don't think that simply "not" getting Soto for $600m means in any way, shape or form that $600m or even $400m or $300m is spent elsewhere.

Maybe they'll give out something like 4/$108m/$27m for Santander and 3/$75m/$25m for Eovaldi, but I think that is the range of spending that I'd be reasonably hoping for if they don't land Soto, and I really don't see them going much higher than that. Even that, to be clear, I wouldn't consider all that bad of an off-season (I'd give that a B-).