How Much is too Much for Soto?

[OCD SS]

Sotoms signing is gaining momentum, and the numbers being thrown around are truly astronomical. So where do you tap out in the bidding? Not where do JWH/ FSG, we’ll learn that soon enough, but looking at the fact that the Red Sox are still going to have to pay for a 40-man roster, at what point can the money be better spent elsewhere?

Edit: I forgot to mention that the above numbers are the present day value, but since Soto doesn’t seem to want any deferrals, it’s a minor point.

 

[LogansDad]

It's not my money. Pay him everything.

I expect the Sox top out around $500M or so, though, and don't get him.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

I don't care. The Sox have had a nice little spending vacation for a few years, turn those pennies into Soto.

 

[tims4wins]

I mean, length matters. 15 years and $800M? Sure. 10 years? Not so much?

 

[Delicious Sponge]

26 year old potential Hall of Famer. This is what money is for. Get him at whatever cost!

 

[santadevil]

26 year old potential Hall of Famer. This is what money is for. Get him at whatever cost!

+1

 

[Beomoose]

"Too much" only matters if paying Soto means the owners fall back into pinching pennies and self-imposed spending caps. And even if they do, Soto's in the lineup so life is still good. Pay the man.

 

[loneredseat]

I think Teo +Fried > Soto, so wherever this falls. $55m/ year?

 

[AlNipper49]

Soto is a generational player and I'd have his cap as 100% of the budget of 2025 minus the cost of acquiring pitching. We could sign two sotos and we're not doing shit next year unless we have a better plan for the mound.

 

[Dewey'sCannon]

It depends on the years - I've been predicting 14/630 - 45 AAV. I think Cohen is probably the only one who might top this.

But the opt-out(s) will also be a factor, so if there are differences in these in the offers it could certainly factor in.

 

[nvalvo]

I think Teo +Fried > Soto, so wherever this falls. $55m/ year?

Is Teo + Fried > Soto + Crochet - Abreu et alia in your view?

 

[moondog80]

Obviously a line has to be drawn somewhere. Ohtani is getting 10 years and 460 mil (present day value). Soto is three years younger, but he also won't ever pitch.

I'd give him the Soto deal, with an opt out or two.

If he wants the same AAV but over 15 years because he's younger, that's 690 mil. That's a no.

Where the exact middle ground is, I don't know.

 

[Dewey'sCannon]

I thought the present value of Ohtani's deal was more like 43 AAV. I think topping this is certainly one of Boras' goals.

 

[moondog80]

I thought the present value of Ohtani's deal was more like 43 AAV. I think topping this is certainly one of Boras' goals.

Cot's lists his tax number at 46 mil. If that's wrong, my post changes accordingly but the basic idea remains the same.

 

[PayrodsFirstClutchHit]

I thought we were voting on how many Soto threads were too many. My Bad. Carry on.

 

[loneredseat]

Is Teo + Fried > Soto + Crochet - Abreu et alia in your view?

Not sure what "et alia" means but Soto + Crochet >> Teo + Fried, imo. I think Crochet is nasty.
But there's no reason we can't trade for Crochet and sign Fried.
Edit-
Sorry, I read that a little to fast-
I think it's close.
On one side (A):
Soto
Crochet
And on the other (B):
Teo
Fried
Abreu +

I guess I like (A) better. But replace Abreu + on side B with Crochet and I'm not sure.

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

I think Teo +Fried > Soto, so wherever this falls. $55m/ year?

I think with or without Soto they're going after a starter. It might just be they're more inclined to trade for Crochet or Woo instead of free agency if they sign Soto.

 

[zenax]

I thought the present value of Ohtani's deal was more like 43 AAV. I think topping this is certainly one of Boras' goals.

Ohtani is only being paid $2 million per season through 2033 with the remainder of his salary ($68 million per year) deferred from 2034 through 2043, according to Spotrac.

 

[OCD SS]

Mea culpa on Ohtani’s present day value; I looked it up, mistyped it, and then went right on using that wrong number to build out the increments.

Anyway, I feel like the offer also has to include accounting for some kind of force majeure risk.

 

[BaseballJones]

Ohtani is only being paid $2 million per season through 2033 with the remainder of his salary ($68 million per year) deferred from 2034 through 2043, according to Spotrac.

When seen like this....that's an insane contract. In so many ways.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I could care how much in a vacuum.
But I care how much relative to what the Red Sox budget is. We saw them break the bank and then not be able to afford a superstar. I'm still believing this is the case unless proven otherwise, so I don't know. I can't vote since I don't know that info.
I think pitching is the bigger need.... adding Soto and going into '25 with a rotation of Houck, Bello, Crawford, Giolito and Criswell is likely maybe a 2-3 game improvement on last seasons

 

[Otis Foster]

Anyway, I feel like the offer also has to include accounting for some kind of force majeure risk.

Like, what? Strike? Suspension of season for pandemic? Civil insurrection?

(I don't read the papers or listen to news any more.)

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

I could care how much in a vacuum.
But I care how much relative to what the Red Sox budget is. We saw them break the bank and then not be able to afford a superstar. I'm still believing this is the case unless proven otherwise, so I don't know. I can't vote since I don't know that info.
I think pitching is the bigger need.... adding Soto and going into '25 with a rotation of Houck, Bello, Crawford, Giolito and Criswell is likely maybe a 2-3 game improvement on last seasons

I think they're signing or trading for at least one starter regardless. The issue is that Soto is the first domino.

 

[CarolinaBeerGuy]

I voted whatever it takes. Sure, the Mets are going to offer the most money. I just hope the pitch the Sox put together is enough to convince him that an extra $50 million isn't going to sway him.

 

[Sox Pride]

I think the number is around 12 years 625 mill

 

[OCD SS]

Like, what? Strike? Suspension of season for pandemic? Civil insurrection?

(I don't read the papers or listen to news any more.)

I was thinking more along the lines of something that physically compromises his (but really only his, not the entire sport’s) ability to play. I guess since these guys play a sport that where serious physical trauma is only a pitch away, it may not qualify as an “act of god”, but you have to factor an incident like the Nomar HBP into the risk of a contract that will run as long as he’s looking for…

 

[Otis Foster]

Doesn't the standard players contract address that contingency, that is, no defeasance of salary for any baseball connected injury or disability? If he gets smashed up sky diving, however.....

 

[BrandyWhine]

I'll suggest to John Henry, Kennedy, Breslow, et al that they offer 14 years at 72 million a year.
Total contract would be 1 billion - 8 million.
Eventually some athlete will get a contract for more than a billion; this guy might be the one who is worth it.

 

[Rasputin]

26 year old potential Hall of Famer. This is what money is for. Get him at whatever cost!

The only way to make him more valuable would be to make him a pitcher.

 

[jon abbey]

The only way to make him more valuable would be to make him a pitcher.

Or a competent defender.

 

[Rasputin]

Or a competent defender.

Lets not be picky

 

[Hank Scorpio]

Not my money, so just do whatever to get him.

But I think the Red Sox are going to want to live in the $261-281M bracket of the salary cap. With that in mind, I don’t think they can go over say $55M AAV without it negatively impacting their long term flexibility. So maybe you do $800M/15 - if he’s the guy you REALLY want.

I don’t think it will necessarily take that, but maybe Cohen goes nuts.

Any chance of him accepting a crazy money, crazy years type deal - which I guess would be pretty much just deferring his money?

$800/20?
$900/25?

 

[nvalvo]

Any chance of him accepting a crazy money, crazy years type deal

I'm not worried about him accepting $900/25; I'm worried about the Commissioner's office accepting it.

 

[OCD SS]

Doesn't the standard players contract address that contingency, that is, no defeasance of salary for any baseball connected injury or disability? If he gets smashed up sky diving, however.....

I apologize if refering to that as “force majeure” confused the issue. I’m not thinking of a clause in his contract. I mean that downside risk (for baseball related activities) has to be built in over such a long contract. I’m thinking about things like Nomar’s HBP, or Pedroia’s knee; they’re not outside baseball, but they’re also not something that are expected or projected for.

 

[nvalvo]

Not sure what "et alia" means but Soto + Crochet >> Teo + Fried, imo. I think Crochet is nasty.

Oh sorry. "And others." Like etc. but for people.

 

[moondog80]

I apologize if refering to that as “force majeure” confused the issue. I’m not thinking of a clause in his contract. I mean that downside risk (for baseball related activities) has to be built in over such a long contract. I’m thinking about things like Nomar’s HBP, or Pedroia’s knee; they’re not outside baseball, but they’re also not something that are expected or projected for.

There is virtually no precedent for something like that. Sometimes there is a pre-existing condition, in which case a team opt-out under a very narrow, specific set of circumstances is sometimes negotiated. At one point you could insure contracts, not sure if that still takes place or not.

 

[nvalvo]

I apologize if refering to that as “force majeure” confused the issue. I’m not thinking of a clause in his contract. I mean that downside risk (for baseball related activities) has to be built in over such a long contract. I’m thinking about things like Nomar’s HBP, or Pedroia’s knee; they’re not outside baseball, but they’re also not something that are expected or projected for.

I think the CBA explicitly limits what you can do with that sort of thing, but we do see language like that with pitchers. What about a structure like this:

• $50m signing bonus.
• 5 seasons at $50m per. 2025-29.
• Soto gets an opt-out after 2029. He will be 31 and will have earned $300m.
• 3 seasons at $60m per. 2029-31. He will be 34 and could have earned $480m if he has opted in.
• Then there is a fork in the road.
  • 7 seasons at $10m per. 2032-38. At the end of the deal, he will be 41, and could have earned as much as $550m, BUT
  • After 2031, if Soto has been able to play at least 200 games in the three preceding seasons combined (or some agreed-upon standard for him not having suffered a career-ending injury in the first eight seasons of the deal), the salary for the last seven seasons steps up to 7 seasons at $40m. In this case, at the end of the deal, he will be 41 and could have earned $760m over the life of the deal.
• I think for CBT purposes, this a 15/$760m deal with an AAV of $50.67m.

That offers a huge guarantee in either eventuality but limits the risk to the club that things go completely sideways in the early years.

It's kind of like a supersized Giolito deal.

 

[LeoCarrillo]

Soto is a generational player and I'd have his cap as 100% of the budget of 2025 minus the cost of acquiring pitching. We could sign two sotos and we're not doing shit next year unless we have a better plan for the mound.

Can we add a catcher to this? Because Wong is a generational crap pitch framer.

 

[dgello1971]

My first post ever, but I have been reading for years. I went all in. Not only is he a generational talent, but the comments from the brass last year were generational as well on the opposite end. It would not only benefit the team on the field; it would benefit the support from the team off the field which are the fans and marketing.

 

[nvalvo]

Can we add a catcher to this? Because Wong is a generational crap pitch framer.

The Seby Zavala addition suggests the FO knows this.

 

[simplicio]

Zavala is a milb deal for depth, neither he nor Gasper should be the immediate solution and Teel's not ready yet.

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

Can we add a catcher to this? Because Wong is a generational crap pitch framer.

I'm not against upgrading from Wong (my vote is Langeliers), but will pitch framing matter in 2026?

 

[simplicio]

I'm not against upgrading from Wong (my vote is Langeliers), but will pitch framing matter in 2026?

Less than in 2025, but still yes. The challenges aren't unlimited. And Wong is also a generational crap pitch blocker.

 

[ookami7m]

Or a competent defender.

too soon?

 

[Hank Scorpio]

I'm not against upgrading from Wong (my vote is Langeliers), but will pitch framing matter in 2026?

I heard he gobbles everything up.



Seriously though - the numbers are telling me that Langeliers is a pretty awful defensive catcher.

Dead last in catcher blocking runs, blocks above average, most WP+PB in MLB, ranked 50 out of 58 in catcher framing runs, and 48 out of 58 in strike rate. Also among the worst in the game in defensive runs saved.

Great power bat though.

 

[simplicio]

Yeah, trying to improve possibly the worst defensive catcher in the game with possibly the other worst catcher in the game seems somewhat less than optimal.

 

[nvalvo]

Zavala is a milb deal for depth, neither he nor Gasper should be the immediate solution and Teel's not ready yet.

Agreed. But he’s a plus receiver, suggesting a priority being given to framing/blocking/throwing over offense.

 

[flredsoxfan]

I would still like the idea of signing Soto at 10/12 for 550/600 with bonuses and opt outs integrated throughout but I really like the idea of Fried, a 2 year pillow for Buelher, and Teo. If those three things were accomplished and the Sox did not get Soto they could still package a trade for Crochet.

 

[EdRalphRomero]

I hear the "not my money" points and I am closer to that perspective than before. I want them to pay him as much as they can and still have a plan to not incur the penalty where your first draft pick gets bumped back 10 spots (which I believe is $40 M above the tax threshold). If they gave him all the money and had that be an annual penalty, that would be very damaging to their competitiveness.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

I hear the "not my money" points and I am closer to that perspective than before. I want them to pay him as much as they can and still have a plan to not incur the penalty where your first draft pick gets bumped back 10 spots (which I believe is $40 M above the tax threshold). If they gave him all the money and had that be an annual penalty, that would be very damaging to their competitiveness.

That's fair. I can't speak for others but I believe those advocating for the Sox to spend more money on payroll are implying that it should be spent wisely. So for example not just throwing money at any old free agent or spending to the point where they hamstring the roster.

You are tapping into a warning we get here from time to time from those worried that the Sox spending more will cause all sorts of new issues or may not result in winning. That may absolutely be true but it would be nice to see that scenario play out for once. Imagine a much more stacked roster that has more top end talent and depth enough to weather inevitable injuries and variance, especially from the pitching staff.

As for what is too much for Soto, I am not sure we have enough information to make this determination. For example, wouldn't you want the Sox finances and projections for this exercise?