How Much Do You Want Your Team To Bid For Yamamoto?
- Thread starter jon abbey
- Start date
Pedro was 26 when the Sox acquired him. A 12 year deal would have taken him through the rest of his career; so about four lousy years at the end. 10-12 years seems like what he’ll get (with the inevitable opt out), hard to feel real comfortable with more than 8 (especially for a guy who isn’t built like a Cole, Scherzer, or Verlander) but someone will.
Beckett is another, acquired at 26 by the Sox. Had about 5-6 good years after that.
There aren’t a ton of free agent pitchers the age of Yamamoto, but guys his age tend to be available fairly frequently via trade, no? Hell, Cole, Scherzer, and Snell were all traded in their mid 20’s too.
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I’m a little surprised not to see any mention of the size of his hands relative to Daisuke’s. Was it not ultimately the consensus that Daisuke’s stuff suffered over here from the MLB ball being critically larger than the one used in NPK? Yamamoto is on the small side, himself. Is no one worried about a repeat of this dynamic?
Please tell me he’s not the bbler Daisuke became (Roy Scheider vehemence) “Because I don’t intend to go through that hell again!”
Every MM over $200MM is going to make me increasingly anxious.
Edit; autocorrect
Please tell me he’s not the bbler Daisuke became (Roy Scheider vehemence) “Because I don’t intend to go through that hell again!”
Every MM over $200MM is going to make me increasingly anxious.
Edit; autocorrect
So what are we up to here in terms of what we think he will get?
I was at 12/324 ($27M AAV) for a while but now I think I will push that even farther, to 9/324 ($36M AAV), the same as the Cole deal. On the one hand, he hasn't yet thrown a pitch in MLB but on the other, he is a full four years younger than Cole was in FA.
I was at 12/324 ($27M AAV) for a while but now I think I will push that even farther, to 9/324 ($36M AAV), the same as the Cole deal. On the one hand, he hasn't yet thrown a pitch in MLB but on the other, he is a full four years younger than Cole was in FA.
Originally I guessed 10/315 but I will actually revise that down now, to 10/310, for the symbolism of being exactly twice the Tanaka deal. And since they're meeting with him this week, I guess I have to add the Yanks as a possibility to the Mets, Giants & Dodgers.
I originally voted 200-250. I'm thinking it will take closer to 325 now, like many others here. I think my cap would be 12/350, but I'd really prefer to be able to afford him AND Montgomery. At a certain point, Montgomery and Snell/Lugo would be more attractive.
Considering where the market is at, his youth/potential, and our need for a front of the rotation arm I think I’m at the point where throwing caution a bit to the wind is where I stand. If 10/320 or thereabouts gets it done then I say do it. Not sure that’s enough with the MFY lurking like it’s 2009 again and the Dodgers doing dodger-y things, however.
At this point, I tell his reps that the team will match/exceed any offer he receives. I'd also basically tell them to present a contract with all the provisions he's seeking and, so long as there's no poison pill type requirements, we'll agree. Plug in the $/years and any potential options. Get it done.
Then get Imanaga/Montgomery too.
Then get Imanaga/Montgomery too.
And when 3 or 4 teams tell him that, he will choose whichever one he feels like. The others will be SOL and won't get it done.
I agree. That's why I'm there at this point. If that's what it will take to convince him to join the Sox for the next 10+ years (with whatever opt outs included), the team obviously needs to be there too in order to be a suitor with any shot.
I understand why others would reasonably disagree with that approach, but, given the particular circumstances the franchise faces at the moment and this particular player's profile, this is a unique opportunity to make significant investments without relinquishing some of our promising young prospects. I believe that's the best chance they have to quickly regain some semblance of a competitive team in the AL East.
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If the bidding gets expensive, we are in the best spot to win. The Yankees want him because their window with Cole and Judge might be closing in a year or two but there must be some wariness after the Rodon deal last year. The Dodgers already got Ohtani and Glasnow, they will have a limit to how much they spend. The Mets just had a terrible season after spending a lot of money last year, I don't think they can commit to another $30-35m/year deal. But we really have no limit, we have nothing locked up long-term.
I'd offer something like 10/$330... front load the first four years to ~$40~45M per year, and then give him an opt-out. The remaining six years would be ~$25M per with opt-outs every two years, but with very significant incentives that could bring the salary back up to the $40-45M range. If he opts-out, Sox have an option to bring him back for two years at $45M per.
It gives the player a lot of security, and a lot of flexibility over his situation, and the contract would have a lot of possible outcomes, such as...
4/$180... Yamamoto is really great for four years and opts out.
-The Red Sox can exercise their option, and are guaranteed to have Yamamoto for another 2/$90... but if he gets hurt/becomes ineffective, they'd be on the hook for 6/$190.
- The Red Sox may decide at this point it's not worth the risk of hanging onto Yamamoto, and pursue other players in free agency. Yamamoto, who would still be 29, could probably get another 8-10 contract here.
Yamamoto is a solid pitcher, but not outstanding. He does not meet any of his incentives.
- After the first 4/$180 - he can either opt out, and try to beat a guaranteed 6/$150, which he may be able to do...
- ...but if he does opt out, and then has a resurgent 2028/2029, he's leaving up to another 4/$180 on the table if he's good enough... so a potential 6/$230 versus whatever the market offers.
Guarantee of 10/$330... but if he's a mostly healthy Pedro, then it's 10/$450, and no one will care about the money. Definitely not my opening offer - but if it takes something like this to get Cohen/Steinbrenner/Ohtani to piss off, then so be it.
And perhaps a player option to defer $x,000,000 of his salary per season - under pre-arranged terms (which I'm not savvy enough to even try to come up with on my own).
Throw in some other stuff. Five round-trip charter flights from Japan to Boston per year for whoever Yamamoto wants to fly in or out. Bring in a Japanese chef or something. I don't know what else. But whatever it is, do it.
It gives the player a lot of security, and a lot of flexibility over his situation, and the contract would have a lot of possible outcomes, such as...
4/$180... Yamamoto is really great for four years and opts out.
-The Red Sox can exercise their option, and are guaranteed to have Yamamoto for another 2/$90... but if he gets hurt/becomes ineffective, they'd be on the hook for 6/$190.
- The Red Sox may decide at this point it's not worth the risk of hanging onto Yamamoto, and pursue other players in free agency. Yamamoto, who would still be 29, could probably get another 8-10 contract here.
Yamamoto is a solid pitcher, but not outstanding. He does not meet any of his incentives.
- After the first 4/$180 - he can either opt out, and try to beat a guaranteed 6/$150, which he may be able to do...
- ...but if he does opt out, and then has a resurgent 2028/2029, he's leaving up to another 4/$180 on the table if he's good enough... so a potential 6/$230 versus whatever the market offers.
Guarantee of 10/$330... but if he's a mostly healthy Pedro, then it's 10/$450, and no one will care about the money. Definitely not my opening offer - but if it takes something like this to get Cohen/Steinbrenner/Ohtani to piss off, then so be it.
And perhaps a player option to defer $x,000,000 of his salary per season - under pre-arranged terms (which I'm not savvy enough to even try to come up with on my own).
Throw in some other stuff. Five round-trip charter flights from Japan to Boston per year for whoever Yamamoto wants to fly in or out. Bring in a Japanese chef or something. I don't know what else. But whatever it is, do it.
The final number is 12/325, probably not the high bid (just my guess).
View: https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/1738051081882530144
View: https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/1738051081882530144
12 years is a ton of risk, but for a guy who is 25, it was always going to be this way. Oh well.
