How Much Do You Want Your Team To Bid For Yamamoto?

[jon abbey]

I'm not great at poll threads, but please:

1. Vote.

2. Post how much you think he will end up signing for (years and dollars) and whether you would want your team (if your team isn't BOS, say who they are) to match or top that bid.

3. Also post the highest you would go for him in years/dollars, there has to be a limit.

 

[jon abbey]

I'm actually not going to vote myself, because I think the Yankees should only be going after him if they're going full Steve Cohen this winter, and I have no idea if they plan to do that or not. If they don't, their in-house SP options right now I think are pretty solid and they should spend resources on the lineup.

 

[Mr. Wednesday]

I voted $200-250 MM, but I'm personally right on 250.

 

[chrisfont9]

I voted up to $300 though I could be talked into a bit higher. Haven't really thought about that.

And at the risk of repeating myself from the Sox pitching thread, I'll just say that for the Sox, it's not a choice between Yamamoto and another guy who you think will cost (insert). He has both the highest ceiling and the most "prime age" years remaining of any available free agent. He is a one of one in the current market, and for the Sox, they are choosing between paying the freight for Yamamoto or significantly increasing the chance of being stuck at .500 for a while longer. In that scenario they can't afford to miss out by a million bucks here or there.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Dollar amount matters less to me than the number of years committed. He's going to be 26 so a 6-8 year deal to cover his prime plus a couple years would be ideal.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

I feel desperate - whatever it takes.

 

[jon abbey]

I feel desperate - whatever it takes.

10/500?

 

[mikeford]

Rather spend the money on Shohei tbh

 

[The Mort Report]

Rather spend the money on Shohei tbh

Problem with him is from what I've read he won't be pitching again until 2025 due to the elbow surgery, so '24 he will be only a really expensive DH. He's also turning 30 next July, so how many years do we think he'll do both? With two big injuries ending this year and killing pitching next I can't see him doing it much longer. It's also believed he will get $500 mil, though that was pre UCL injury, but it only takes one(Xander). I'd imagine if he picks one he'd hit only, and sure he can mash, but do we want 5-7 years of a $50 mil a year DH? If you can get Yamamoto at half that I think that is a much better gamble, hell even if they commanded the same salary and I had to pick one I'd take Yamamoto

 

[Mike Thomas 802]

8 for 240 or
10 for 275
take your pick Mr. Yamamoto.

 

[Jake Peavy's Demons]

I voted $200-250 MM, but I'm personally right on 250.

Same as you. I know things don't really work this way, but I want to see them 'hold on' to some cash to be able to pursue another Japanese star a year or so down the road whose last name isn't Ōtani...Rōki Sasaki.

If you can get YY for 10/$250MM, it leaves '$50MM head start' for Sasaki when he's ready. Again, I know it doesn't really work like that & if anyone more knowledgeable than I wants to chime in w/r/t logistics (or lack there of) to have both players in Red Sox uniforms down the road, I'll happily listen.

 

[snowmanny]

If you’ve finished last, or nearly last, two years in a row and you expect to actually compete for a championship the next year then you better have predictably very good pitching. If you don’t have that already and you need it now then it is either going to cost a lot of money or cost a lot of prospects. If you do it with prospects, that’s fine, but you better have a good target in mind and it might ultimately cost you money anyway in salary and in replacing the cost-controlled prospects you sent away.

Just easier to spend a lot on the right free agent. Close your eyes, write the check, hope for luck and go win.

I said 250.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I imagine he gets something 10/250 with an opt out after 3. It’s not my money, so sure, go for it.

 

[IpswichSox]

Boston needs not one but two front-line starting pitchers. Getting one for cash only significantly increases the chance we have the prospect depth to get another in a trade.

Shohei would be great, but we already have multiple DHs and/or DHs-in-waiting. We don't have room for another, which also would make our defense weaker by forcing other guys to play in the field.

I honestly don't know what it would take to land Yamamoto. But if its anything short of Xander-like craziness, I'm in.

 

[pokey_reese]

Given the way this team has cycled through GMs, this kind of call is pretty clearly up to ownership. If it were he GM's call to make, I think it's a no-brainer 'not my money' move, because clearly being frugal doesn't guarantee job security any more than a championship does in this particular role, so you might as well go for it. At this point, no candidate is going to come into this job thinking they will have the luxury of a five-year plan, so if it's up to them, might as well spend because you can't bank the money for a future that may never come.

I'm offering 8/$200m at least, and I think if that doesn't happen, it's clear that ownership wasn't willing. If a new hire comes in and goes bargain hunting, I think that's a good indication that Bloom was operating under constraints we weren't aware of, rather than leaving money on the table unspent of his own volition.

 

[Apisith]

Tanaka got 7/$175m for the same starting age season.

Yamamoto seems equally highly rated, the market has a dearth of options, I think he gets 8/$230.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Tanaka got 7/$175m for the same starting age season.

Yamamoto seems equally highly rated, the market has a dearth of options, I think he gets 8/$230.

I think that's the right ballpark.
I'm usually very much against long, expensive contracts, but sign me up for this.

 

[jon abbey]

Think that will be low, more teams willing to spend now, Japanese pitchers more proven in the US, and obviously the top option on the market.

 

[mikcou]

I'd do 9/$230 or 10/$250. Above that, theres enough additional risk about transitioning top MLB, that it seems too much to a total commitment of $275M or $300M. If for whatever reason 8/230 as suggested above got him to sign on the line, that seems like a reasonable modification of 9/$230 or 10/$250, if a bit more.

 

[jon abbey]

Can people who vote 'literally whatever it takes' please post a top number on how far they'd go? If Steve Cohen bids 12/504 ($42M AAV), are you topping that? 20 years for 1.2B ($60M per)? There has to be an upper limit somewhere, thanks.

 

[RedOctober3829]

$200-$250 is my vote. He's younger and better than any Japanese pitcher at the time he's coming over. Tanaka signed for 7/155 so with inflation and accounting for a better talent Yamamoto should go over the $200 million mark.

 

[Sad Sam Jones]

As a Cleveland fan, these things never cross my mind because outbidding the rest of the pack isn't even within the realm of possibilities... which makes me thankful they can keep churning out young arms and compete as long as 3 or more of them don't spend half the year on the IL.

 

[JimD]

Can people who vote 'literally whatever it takes' please post a top number on how far they'd go? If Steve Cohen bids 12/504 ($42M AAV), are you topping that? 20 years for 1.2B ($60M per)? There has to be an upper limit somewhere, thanks.

I'd go up to 8/$300 million for him, I think he'll be worth it.

Edit: Guess maybe I should have voted for the $250-300M option

 

[Tokyo Sox]

I'm not great at poll threads, but please:

1. Vote.

2. Post how much you think he will end up signing for (years and dollars) and whether you would want your team (if your team isn't BOS, say who they are) to match or top that bid.

3. Also post the highest you would go for him in years/dollars, there has to be a limit.

1. I went 250~300.
2. 10/315 to one of the Mets, Giants, or Dodgers, and no, I don't think the Sox should match that.
3. 8/260

 

[YTF]

Rather spend the money on Shohei tbh

The problem for me is adding a potential full time DH to a team with multiple DHs in waiting.

 

[simplicio]

I think he ends up 8/240 with a player option after 4, and I hope we're the ones paying him.

 

[Max Power]

Why are we all playing the second part of the GM game where we guess how much money a guy is going to make versus the first where we guess how he'll actually pitch? You don't get to part two without giving your best guess at one. And it's more interesting, to me at least. I watch the players play the game, not cash their checks.

I've seen comparisons to Pedro at 25, but looking at the numbers, I don't get it. They're both under 6 foot righties, but that's where the similarities end. Pedro led the NL in K/9 while Yamamoto is 5th in his much smaller league. Yamamoto has the second best BB/9 and best WHIP in the league, plus a microscopic HR/9 (0.1). He's more of a Greg Maddux type. Maybe that's better news for his ability to age well. The big question is whether he's going to be able to keep the ball in the park against MLB hitters who are much more willing to strike out to hit homers.

He doesn't appear to be a max-effort guy, with a fastball in the mid-90s and a forkball as his main offspeed pitch. Pinpoint control is his biggest weapon. Even with the miles on his arm, an 8-year deal is as good a bet as any of these long term contracts. Whether it's $25 or $30 million a year is up to the teams and their accountants.

 

[Tokyo Sox]

I've seen comparisons to Pedro at 25, but looking at the numbers, I don't get it. They're both under 6 foot righties, but that's where the similarities end. Pedro led the NL in K/9 while Yamamoto is 5th in his much smaller league. Yamamoto has the second best BB/9 and best WHIP in the league, plus a microscopic HR/9 (0.1). He's more of a Greg Maddux type. Maybe that's better news for his ability to age well. The big question is whether he's going to be able to keep the ball in the park against MLB hitters who are much more willing to strike out to hit homers.

I’ve got no idea who the best comp is but just for the sake of accuracy:
- Yamamoto is in his Age 24 season. Pedro didn’t lead the NL in K/9 in his.
- Yamamoto is 3rd in the PL in K/9; if you were looking at all of NPB then yes he’s 5th, but then that’s 12 teams, as opposed to 14 in the 1997 NL, ie not really that much smaller.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Wasn’t Matsuzaka known for his pinpoint control too? 1.6 BB rate his last year in Japan, and then 4.4 in the majors. How well do BB rate and HR rate usually translate?

 

[Wingack]

I don't know how much it will be, but I could see Texas getting involved.

They are clearly in win now mode.

 

[jbupstate]

What kind of mileage does Yamamoto have on his arm?

I know he’s young but is there an injury factor that should be factored?

 

[jon abbey]

View: https://twitter.com/yakyucosmo/status/1708806122696823283?s=46&t=0GHHaPVUX26Io0V2HIcS0g

 

[Hank Scorpio]

Is Yamamoto a typical free agent, where teams and the player can go back and forth on negotiations, or is it that "one time, submit your best offer" posting deal?

He's 25, so if he projects to be even a semblance of the pitcher he's been in Japan, sign me up for 10 years if that's what it takes.

If he's anything resembling an ace in MLB, I'd be thrilled to get him for 7/$180, but would be okay with going up to 10/$320. But that's carrying the stipulation that actual talent evaluators really like the guy - versus me really liking his ERA. Players take huge steps back coming over from Japan all the time, even if they're still great/good/serviceable. Even Ichiro saw his OPS take a huge hit in MLB. Mastuzaka saw his walk rate explode. Yoshida had a decent year, but nothing like he had in Japan.

I have little doubt that Yamamoto can be an effective MLB pitcher... but are we bidding on Pedro Martinez or Mark Portugal?

His numbers in Japan are pretty similar to Yu Darvish. Same age too.

 

[Laser Show]

Is Yamamoto a typical free agent, where teams and the player can go back and forth on negotiations, or is it that "one time, submit your best offer" posting deal?

He's 25, so if he projects to be even a semblance of the pitcher he's been in Japan, sign me up for 10 years if that's what it takes.

If he's anything resembling an ace in MLB, I'd be thrilled to get him for 7/$180, but would be okay with going up to 10/$320. But that's carrying the stipulation that actual talent evaluators really like the guy - versus me really liking his ERA. Players take huge steps back coming over from Japan all the time, even if they're still great/good/serviceable. Even Ichiro saw his OPS take a huge hit in MLB. Mastuzaka saw his walk rate explode. Yoshida had a decent year, but nothing like he had in Japan.

I have little doubt that Yamamoto can be an effective MLB pitcher... but are we bidding on Pedro Martinez or Mark Portugal?

His numbers in Japan are pretty similar to Yu Darvish. Same age too.

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/japanese-posting-system

Under posting rules that were instituted in the 2018-19 offseason, the "release fee" -- an amount that an NPB club must receive in the event an agreement is reached between a posted player and a Major League club -- depends on the guaranteed value of the contract a posted player signs with a Major League club.
All 30 MLB clubs have 45 days to negotiate with a player after he is posted. If no agreement is reached in that timeframe, the player returns to his NPB club for the coming season. He cannot be posted again until the following offseason.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I don't get these types of polls. I'd bid maybe $20 for him personally. What would I want the team to bid on him? I guess the answer is "whatever it takes".... what do I think they actually WILL BID for him? Or even if they will (I think they will)?
My answer there is $32.5M for 6 years with lots of player options at the end.

 

[jon abbey]

I don't get these types of polls. I'd bid maybe $20 for him personally. What would I want the team to bid on him? I guess the answer is "whatever it takes".... what do I think they actually WILL BID for him? Or even if they will (I think they will)?

The thread title really clearly addresses this:


How Much Do You Want Your Team To Bid For Yamamoto?

 

[jon abbey]

Players take huge steps back coming over from Japan all the time, even if they're still great/good/serviceable. Even Ichiro saw his OPS take a huge hit in MLB. Mastuzaka saw his walk rate explode. Yoshida had a decent year, but nothing like he had in Japan.

I think it makes sense to separate hitters and pitchers in this case, Japanese hitters often struggle coming over but Japanese pitchers increasingly are successful in their MLB transition (I don't think going back to guys like Matsuzaka or Kei Igawa is especially relevant anymore). Yamamoto was decidedly better than Senga in their Japanese careers, Senga might end up top 5 in the NL Cy Young in his first season in the US (2023).

 

[JM3]

https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/japanese-posting-system

To expand on that a bit:

• For Major League contracts with a total guaranteed value of $50,000,001 or more, the release fee will be 20 percent of the first $25 million plus 17.5 percent of next $25 million plus 15 percent of the total guaranteed value exceeding $50 million.

The posting fee (or release fee as it is now called) is just math. The player agrees to a contract with a team, & the Japanese team gets an amount based on the size of that contract.

So if, for example, Yamamoto signed a $200m contract, the posting fee to his Japanese team from the team that signed him to the $200m contract would be $31,875,000. That amount would not count against the luxury tax threshold.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

The thread title really clearly addresses this:


How Much Do You Want Your Team To Bid For Yamamoto?

Thanks. It still doesn’t make sense. How much do I WANT Henry to spend? I answered “whatever”. Why would anyone anything differently?
How much do I THINK they WILL spend seems like a more reasonable question.

 

[jon abbey]

Thanks. It still doesn’t make sense. How much do I WANT Henry to spend? I answered “whatever”. Why would anyone anything differently?

Because payrolls aren't unlimited, no matter how rich the owner is. Even Steve Cohen has limits (maybe). If Cohen offers Yamamoto 10/600 (he won't), you want Henry to outbid that? Presumably you have never once complained about a BOS player not living up to his contract.

Anyway, feel free not to vote if you don't like the poll.

 

[jon abbey]

I think he is so many teams' top target outside of the few actually in the Ohtani running, the more genuinely open YY is to just going to the highest bidder (or close), the crazier the bidding will get.

If I had to guess as of this second, I'll say he will get 12/324 (27M AAV), maybe from the Mets.

 

[PRabbit]

11/somewhere between 300-330m is what I'd bid.

12/400 is what I'd guess the highest bid actually is.

 

[Van Everyman]

11/somewhere between 300-330m is what I'd bid.

12/400 is what I'd guess the highest bid actually is.

That’s … a lot to pay for a guy who’s never made a single pitch in the majors.

I’m excited about what Breslow may bring to this team. I’m less excited that the premiere guy on the market has never pitched in the league and hope the whole posting arms race garbage doesn’t prevent him from doing what he wants to do and what is best for the team, even if bidding for Yamamoto is part of that.

 

[Thurms Ghost]

Using Yu Darvish as a comp - he's put up around 32 WAR (depending on if you prefer B or F) over 11 years
At maybe $9 mil/WAR for FAs these days that puts you at 11yrs $288 mil

 

[Harry Hooper]

McAdam has some comments from a scout "who has seen Yamamoto extensively." Some snippets:

“I really like him,” the scout began. “If you’re going to break down the arsenal in terms of pitches and compare him to some other Japanese pitchers, the power of (Kodai) Senga’s fastball and his split, are really good. They’re devastating. But Yamamoto has a more complete arsenal in that Yamamoto is the type of guy who, if on a given day he’s got a pitch that’s not effective, he’s got more weapons to get you out. And he can throw strikes with all of them.
...
“That’s the thing with Yamamoto — he has a lot of adjustability in terms of what he can do. That’s impressive. When Tanaka came over, his split was nasty and that was a swing-and-miss pitch. With Yamamoto, I can’t necessary say he’s got this as a swing-and-miss pitch, or that as a swing-and-miss pitch. But they’re all above-average.”
...
“Early on in his career, (his lack of height) that’s not the concern that it might otherwise be, knowing that he’s committed to strengthening himself. I do think that as he ages, the stuff might regress a little sooner, just because he doesn’t have as much strength behind his pitches. He won’t have the physicality of a Max Scherzer or a Justin Verlander.”

More in the article, including comparison to David Cone.

 

[Murderer's Crow]

I think I’m comfortable passing on $300m+ for a pitcher. That type of contract can be a payroll crusher for 10+ years and this just isn’t a sport where 1 specific star player is usually the difference maker in the playoffs.

Not my money and all that but I’d spread it around.

 

[jon abbey]

View: https://twitter.com/marinomlb/status/1729930096159445476?s=12

 

[nvalvo]

I’d probably top out around 12/$300m. He’s a good candidate for one of these insanely long deals that are the fashion now, because he’s so young. The first eight years should be good, inshallah.

 

[AlNipper49]

I’d probably top out around 12/$300m. He’s a good candidate for one of these insanely long deals that are the fashion now, because he’s so young. The first eight years should be good, inshallah.

That about where I'm at too. You need an ace in today's game and he's really the only pitcher out there who has that upside. (Ohtani injury inclusive of course)

 

[JM3]

I'd give him 13/$325m with a $25m team option ($1m buyout) for [consults abacus]...2037.