How Many Top-Market FAs Will NE Sign?

Number of top-of-the-market FAs the Patriots will sign

  • 0

    Votes: 53 29.1%
  • 1

    Votes: 64 35.2%
  • 2

    Votes: 44 24.2%
  • 3

    Votes: 8 4.4%
  • 4+

    Votes: 13 7.1%

  • Total voters
    182

Phil Plantier

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Mar 7, 2002
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Will Belichick go for some high-priced free agents the next few weeks or will he only go bargain-hunting due to the cap constraints of other teams?

Obviously this is a vague boundary but let's say 10 million average annual value or more, or something above the spotrac free agent predictor.

I'm voting 1 because I think he will pay for a TE (or maybe WR)
 

BaseballJones

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They will sign one guy at near top dollar. The rest will be mid-range guys, bargain vets, etc. And to go further, I predict that the top dollar guy will not be at WR. It will be a defensive player.

(I'm almost certain to be wrong on all counts here, obviously!)
 

RedOctober3829

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I vote 0, but I don't consider the TE's top of the market guys. The numbers that mean the most to me is the total guarantees and the money in Year 1. If the Pats are shrewd, they can use the bonus money to lower the Year 1 cap hits on guys and maximize the cap space they have as much as possible. Therefore, I don't envision the Pats to sign a guy that costs $10 million or more on the 2021 cap.
 

SMU_Sox

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I voted 2. I think he will sign 2-3 guys in the 7-12 million a year range. Will they be over 10? I don’t know. WR, TE, Edge, IDL, maybe CB if he trades Gilmore are the most likely positions to me. I think he does the usual pick swaps like Brown and signs bargain guys and middle class guys but I do think he makes a splash. Also, maybe QB. If Mariota is cut I could see him as a 10m+ guy.
 

E5 Yaz

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Also, maybe QB. If Mariota is cut I could see him as a 10m+ guy.
You think he's an option, even after the Cam deal? (Personally, it might be worth it to watch a few heads explode around here.)

I voted 1 top-notch FA ... thinking TE or WR
 

SMU_Sox

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You think he's an option, even after the Cam deal? (Personally, it might be worth it to watch a few heads explode around here.)

I voted 1 top-notch FA ... thinking TE or WR
That's such a good/hard question... Cam's contract is that of a quality backup. There was a lot of smoke to the Pats wanting to try and grab other vet QBs. I think everything is on the table including on the table /Bobs-Burgers.

I could see them taking 2 guys like Cam and Mariota and letting them battle it out for the starting job in camp, sure. I could see them drafting a guy. I could see all 3.
 

Harry Hooper

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You think he's an option, even after the Cam deal? (Personally, it might be worth it to watch a few heads explode around here.)

I voted 1 top-notch FA ... thinking TE or WR
Agreed on 1, assuming the thread starter wasn't factoring in Pats FAs such as Andrews or Guy.
 

vadertime

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Voted 0. We go through this every year. They'll be "in" or "sniffing around" the big names but in the end will sign 4-6 mid-tier guys that don't get you excited but end up contributing.
 

tims4wins

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Voted 0. We go through this every year. They'll be "in" or "sniffing around" the big names but in the end will sign 4-6 mid-tier guys that don't get you excited but end up contributing.
While this is generally true, every 4 or so years they seem to bring in a huge FA - going back to Colvin, Adalius Thomas, Amendola, Gilmore come to mind. Plus I think Bill knows they need some huge talent, they have cap room, I think he’ll spend on the right fit.
 

bankshot1

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BB shocked most of us when he signed Gilmore a few years ago at the top of the CB market, so he's got it in him. But I suspect he sticks to what he thinks is his strong suit, finding the undervalued vet, that can do a couple of things pretty well, that gives him flexibility, and a guy he can get at a decent price. If he were to splurge I'd guess someone who can catch the ball, TE or WR.
 

Seels

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None, and I don't think even the high valued ones of this years class are all that great. Maybe Golladay?
 

bsj

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I dont really know how to answer this. What is top dollar? I see them bringing in a TE at top dollar, and then another Samuel level WR. Is he top dollar?

I'm going to say 2 but I am going with a top $ TE, a big (but maybe not top?) $ WR, and then a lower level Humphries type WR, and then a couple low to mid guys on D
 

bsj

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Voted 0. We go through this every year. They'll be "in" or "sniffing around" the big names but in the end will sign 4-6 mid-tier guys that don't get you excited but end up contributing.
I absolutely can see this. But I just cant see even Bill finding a way to not spend in a year when we have a lot of $ room and are coming off our worst season in 20 years.

Now...I do think that there may be some wiggle room around what is considered top $. If only Golladay is considered a "top dollar" WR I suppose I could see them skipping it. But I 100% think they are signing one of the top 8 or so FA WRs.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
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Voted 0. We go through this every year. They'll be "in" or "sniffing around" the big names but in the end will sign 4-6 mid-tier guys that don't get you excited but end up contributing.
We absolutely don’t go through free agency with this much cash every year.

Frankly I find your lack of faith disturbing.
 

lexrageorge

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I voted 1.

He will pick at least one roster spot where he will try to snare a Day 1 free agent. It's happened before; Bill isn't shy about pursuing a player he likes. If I were to venture a guess, it will be on the defensive side of the ball, and a lot of people will be scratching their head about the WR that got passed up. Too bad Borges isn't covering the beat anymore.
 

OurF'ingCity

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I voted 1.

He will pick at least one roster spot where he will try to snare a Day 1 free agent. It's happened before; Bill isn't shy about pursuing a player he likes. If I were to venture a guess, it will be on the defensive side of the ball, and a lot of people will be scratching their head about the WR that got passed up. Too bad Borges isn't covering the beat anymore.
I think I agree with this - BB seems to approach WR similar to RB as a position where the marginal value of signing a “top tier” guy vs. some mid-level under-the-radar guys is not worth it. The Moss trade and re-signing is the exception that proves the rule.

TE is a different story though as I think BB (rightly) sees that position as critical to both the passing AND running game, so I think it’s much more likely he might shell about a big(ish) contract for someone at that position.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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I want them to re-sign Butler and Guy, add a veteran OLineman, sign a WR1 and Hunter Henry for TE, and then trade up to draft Trey Lance.
 

mwonow

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I think this is going to be a weird FA year, with a few guys getting big money, and a lot of food/very good players getting cut and finding it hard to land well. I'd expect BB to look hard at the latter group before committing a lot of resources to the former.

And I really want to see Pitts (or Hunter Henry, speaking of big money guys) join the Pats. Assuming Andrews re-signs, TE is probably the most glaring hole on O.*

* - pending Can's results, of course.
 

DJnVa

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I think they'll get at least 1, maybe 2. I think they're going to get 2 WRs or WR/TE with a total cost about about $18-20M/year. Just depends on how that splits.
 

snowmanny

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What is BB’s plan to win next year? I keep thinking it is defense and ball control and that getting a 1,000
yard receiver is not the key to the Pats winning the division. So I’d guess 1 big money defensive player.

Disclaimer: I have no f’ing clue.
 

Bowser

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Sep 27, 2019
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I vote 0, but I don't consider the TE's top of the market guys. The numbers that mean the most to me is the total guarantees and the money in Year 1. If the Pats are shrewd, they can use the bonus money to lower the Year 1 cap hits on guys and maximize the cap space they have as much as possible.
I agree with this. We've got $60M to spend, but it can go quickly. Maybe they grab a WR in the $10-12M range (Curtis/Patrick,/Jones) and a cheaper option (Humphries/Tate/John Brown). Rudolph/Everett/Cook at TE. Harris/Jones/Tomlinson at DT. Maybe Bowser/Jayon Brown/Van Noy.

I'd rather bring in a 4-5 above average players than an $18M WR or a $12M TE. Besides, got to save some cash for Jimmy G. ;)
 

BaseballJones

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Sign John "Smoke" Brown - who at 30 still has gas in the tank and is a very good deep threat who stretches the field (in 2019 he had 72 receptions for 1,060 yds, 14.7 avg, and 6 td).

Sign Will Fuller, JuJu, or Curtis Samuel. You probably can sign Brown and one of these guys for about $20m total, give or take. Draft a WR from the SEC (that conference just churns out quality NFL WR at a breathtaking clip). Sign Hunter Henry or Jonnu Smith for about $12m (whichever will take less money). Now you've improved the WR and TE spots *considerably*. And instead of $67m, you've now got about $35m left.

Use draft capital to trade up for Trey Lance. Have him apprentice under Cam for 2021. Or heck, have him take Cam's job as soon as he's ready.

With the rest of the $35m, sign a veteran OL, re-sign Butler and Guy (all that should run about $18m), and sign a good D-lineman. Hightower and Chung being back will really help.

So you've upgraded at WR and TE. You've drafted the QB of the future. You've solidified the defensive line and added other defensive reinforcements. And you've still got some money left over to tinker.
 

DJnVa

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I agree with this. We've got $60M to spend, but it can go quickly.
Actually, it goes a pretty long way. Here's Doug Kyed:

$63.9M-$68.6M in cap space
Draft class: $2 million
Trent Brown: $8 million projected
CB JC Jackson first-round tender: $4.9 million


Minimum $50.6M leftover accounting for Top 51 rule
Extend Gilmore: $6 million
Release Cannon: ($7 million)


$50.8M leftover accounting for Top 51 rule
Re-sign Andrews, Guy, Burkhead, Johnson: $8.2 million including Top 51 rule

$42.6M leftover
Now, the Patriots can splurge even more, so let’s sign Corey Davis (four years, $65 million; $10.4 million cap hit) and Samuel (four years, $50 million; $8 million cap hit) at receiver.

$25.8M leftover accounting for Top 51 rule
Let’s keep throwing money around and sign tight end Hunter Henry to a four-year deal worth $52 million with an $8M cap hit in 2021.

$18.6M leftover accounting for Top 51 rule
The Patriots need a defensive boost, as well, so let’s add linebacker Kyle Van Noy (two years, $20 million; $9 million cap hit in 2021), edge defender Tyus Bowser (three years, $21 million; $6 million cap hit in 2021) and Hankins (two years, $7 million; $3 million cap hit in 2021). That leaves New England with $3 million to sign low-level free agents, including the Patriots’ own.

Scenario 3’s additions looks great on paper, but it’s risky to trust Newton, Brissett, a rookie quarterback or Minshew to carry the offense. It’s probably not advisable to trade for Garoppolo and keep him on a $25 million cap hit. Scenario 2 finds a nice balance of acquiring a serviceable-to-great quarterback while also having leftover money to build up the rest of the roster.

This exercise also shows just how far $60-plus million in cap space can go even after reacquiring top free agents and spending cap space to keep Gilmore, the team’s top player, around.


https://nesn.com/2021/03/patriots-offseason-blueprint-potential-qb-options-free-agency/
 

pappymojo

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I think they try to cover all of their roster needs through free agency and trades before the draft so that they can better play the board and make additional trades during the draft. I think that they spend most of their available money.

My biggest issue is determining what is meant by top-market free agents.

I think that they sign a bunch of players. Some of them will be expensive. Some of them will be very good players at good deals. I wouldn't be surprised if there were a bunch of one-year and two-year deals. I could see Kyle Van Noy on a short term deal. Does that count for a top-market free agent.
 
Feb 19, 2015
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You don't think they should use the large amount of cap space to sign free agents?
I think they are a couple of years away and lack depth in a lot of places, so I don't really want them spending on top market guys and would rather they spend to strengthe the depth and rollover some cap space to next year. (But again, I'm usually wrong in what they end up doing and their success speaks speaks for itself.)
 

pappymojo

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Per the opening post, if it’s $10M/year.
It's a little more nuanced than that though, isn't it? Cam Newton's contract has a base of $5 million and includes incentives that bring it up to $14 million. Would that contract count if he wasn't being re-signed? Does anyone consider Cam a top market free agent signing?
 

Cellar-Door

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At $10M plus I think 1 or 2.

I don't think they'll sign a TE at that money, but I think they'll go with a WR (Samuel or Davis maybe), and/or a front 7 player in that range (Dupree, Lawson, etc.)
 

BigSoxFan

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At $10M plus I think 1 or 2.

I don't think they'll sign a TE at that money, but I think they'll go with a WR (Samuel or Davis maybe), and/or a front 7 player in that range (Dupree, Lawson, etc.)
I’m going to be pretty disappointed if they don’t sign a front 7 guy in the $10M range. They have a big need on the DL and not much for returning talent at all.

Feels like forever since they added a big name on the front 7 in FA. Guy was a solid signing but relatively modest cost. Who else? Adalius Thomas?
 

tims4wins

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I’m going to be pretty disappointed if they don’t sign a front 7 guy in the $10M range. They have a big need on the DL and not much for returning talent at all.

Feels like forever since they added a big name on the front 7 in FA. Guy was a solid signing but relatively modest cost. Who else? Adalius Thomas?
Yeah and Rosie Colvin. Ages ago.
 

E5 Yaz

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Before folks get too hung up on whether the players available are "top of the market" free agents ... maybe we should consider how many of the Top 11 biggest FA contracts will the Patriots dole out.

Still think we see them do one of those.
 

mcpickl

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At $10M plus I think 1 or 2.

I don't think they'll sign a TE at that money, but I think they'll go with a WR (Samuel or Davis maybe), and/or a front 7 player in that range (Dupree, Lawson, etc.)
I think this is what they do as well.

Add one pass catcher and one front 7 defender in the 10M range.

I wonder if instead of a signing, if Detroit would trade Trey Flowers back as the front 7 add for the Pats.
 
Apr 24, 2019
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I voted two. Would love to see BB invest in at least two of these three: WR Curtis Samuel, TE Jonnu Smith, DL Dalvin Tomlinson...and a cheaper FA in ex-Jet DL Henry Anderson.
 

Phil Plantier

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I'm pretty confident that Jonnu Smith counts as 1! What will the offense be like with a real TE that I don't worry about breaking into pieces every time he goes out for a route? I'm excited to find out.

It's a little more nuanced than that though, isn't it? Cam Newton's contract has a base of $5 million and includes incentives that bring it up to $14 million. Would that contract count if he wasn't being re-signed? Does anyone consider Cam a top market free agent signing?
QBs are on a different scale. I don't think any free agent QB would count as a big signing.
 

BaseballJones

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I was right that they'd spend on defense, but I was wrong in that they did pay $$ for a quality TE. Happy to be wrong about that!!
 

ShaneTrot

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The amount of money that they are spending makes me think that the cap is going way up with the new TV deal and this is BB's last hurrah or a combination of both.
 

Harry Hooper

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The amount of money that they are spending makes me think that the cap is going way up with the new TV deal and this is BB's last hurrah or a combination of both.
Seventeenth game and new tv deal have to propel that cap way up.