How many regular season games will the Celtics win in 2019-2020?

lexrageorge

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Jul 31, 2007
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If Indy lost Bogdanovic or Turner along with Oladipo they probably would have been in the lottery. Not sure if the Nets make the playoffs if they lose Harris along with LeVert. Two starters is a lot for any team to overcome.

While 44 wins would not be a great season by any means, and would certainly not have been what Celtics fans we're contemplating just one year ago, there are "good" and "bad" 44 win seasons. If Tatum and Brown show progress and development throughout the season, and if one or more of the rookies show flashes of brilliance, and if R. Williams somehow makes a leap, most of us would take that. This is clearly a bridge season; anything beyond that is gravy.
 

lovegtm

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If Indy lost Bogdanovic or Turner along with Oladipo they probably would have been in the lottery. Not sure if the Nets make the playoffs if they lose Harris along with LeVert. Two starters is a lot for any team to overcome.

While 44 wins would not be a great season by any means, and would certainly not have been what Celtics fans we're contemplating just one year ago, there are "good" and "bad" 44 win seasons. If Tatum and Brown show progress and development throughout the season, and if one or more of the rookies show flashes of brilliance, and if R. Williams somehow makes a leap, most of us would take that. This is clearly a bridge season; anything beyond that is gravy.
Hell, if Milwaukee loses Giannis+another starter, the Celtics pick is suddenly worth a lot. We can play this game for almost any team. If HRB thinks the Celtics have a lot of downside because of what happens if 2 starters get hurt (reasonable), he should be just as excited about that pick conveying in the late lottery.
 

benhogan

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While 44 wins would not be a great season by any means, and would certainly not have been what Celtics fans we're contemplating just one year ago, there are "good" and "bad" 44 win seasons. If Tatum and Brown show progress and development throughout the season, and if one or more of the rookies show flashes of brilliance, and if R. Williams somehow makes a leap, most of us would take that. This is clearly a bridge season; anything beyond that is gravy.
That's all we really need to get to 50 wins in the EC. If we get positive play from TL (it was only 12 months ago he was considered draft lottery talent) this team is vying for a 2 seed. The frontcourt talent/expectations are holding the Celtics back immensely IMO.

I also agree this is a bridge season and signings/trades/development minutes should be geared around peaking 18 months from now.
 

Devizier

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people are consistently overestimating the role that conference plays in overall strength of schedule:

teams play 52 games in-conference and 30 games against the opposing conference.
last season, WC teams won 42.8 games (52.2 win%) on average and EC teams won 39.2 games (47.8 win%).

assume that you are a "true 500" team then you would be expected to win 40.6 games in the WC and 41.4 games in the EC.
 

lovegtm

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I also agree this is a bridge season and signings/trades/development minutes should be geared around peaking 18 months from now.
If Hayward and Kemba are playing at a high level, and the Js are providing strong wing D and some offense, the team should absolutely look into trading for a center midseason. The world champions last year didn’t have their starting center until February. (And before we get into the size at the 4 thing, Siakam and Tatum are basically the same size/strength).

In most cases you’ll be 100% absolutely correct about peaking in 18 months, but if you ever get a break and are an unexpected contender in the modern NBA, you absolutely have to go for it, unless the cost is dealing a core player for a short-term fix.
 

Big John

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There are plenty of veteran big men still out there (e.g. Faried, Noah) and Ainge, who is not stupid, has an open roster spot. Maybe he thinks that the current four-headed monster at the center position will actually work? Or if they give a 2-way or minimum deal to Tacko that a five-headed monster may actually work?

The only difference-making big I could see becoming available at the deadline is Marc Gasol, assuming that Toronto is underperforming. But I'm taking the over on the Raptors, who are a dangerous team even without Kawhi. They are getting Anunoby back and they have championship experience.
 

benhogan

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If Hayward and Kemba are playing at a high level, and the Js are providing strong wing D and some offense, the team should absolutely look into trading for a center midseason. The world champions last year didn’t have their starting center until February. (And before we get into the size at the 4 thing, Siakam and Tatum are basically the same size/strength).

In most cases you’ll be 100% absolutely correct about peaking in 18 months, but if you ever get a break and are an unexpected contender in the modern NBA, you absolutely have to go for it, unless the cost is dealing a core player for a short-term fix.
Yea, agree. I think Danny & Co did a decent job recovering after Horford shocked them. The Celtics have some flexibility. If any of VP, EK, DT or TL surprise to the upside he'll keep otherwise I expect he'll use them as filler to make a move for a tankers 5 *(see below) by January. As you know, I'm keeping my eye on Indy to see if their double BIG experiment works. Also, think Noel or Adams will be available from OKC. Or Vucevic at $15MM isn't a bad signing by Memphis.

Small quibble...on ESPN, Siakam is 6'9" 230 and 25. Tatum is listed as 6'8" 208 and 21. Maybe their #s are significantly off? At the moment, Siakam plays much more physical, aggressive and invites contact while Jayson avoids it. Tatum will grow into it, but I like how he looked practicing against Beal/Paul and didn't see those guys blow by him. I'd be much happier with JT playing the 2/3 this season. As he matures and his body fills out, he'll eventually develop into a dominant 4. BUT I'm not sure I want 21yr old Tatum battling with the Blake Griffin, Giannis, LeBron, Horford, Turner, OR be the guy to help on the BIG when our 5 gets caught on the perimeter. We'll see if Gordon can play the 4 or if Semi/Grant will get major minutes at the 4. Lots of tricky decisions to be made by Brad. I'm sure CBS will get his share of undeserved criticism from myself and others :redwine:

*potential tankers
Chicago Bulls 30½
Washington Wizards 28½
Oklahoma City Thunder 28
New York Knicks 27
Phoenix Suns 27
Memphis Grizzlies 25½
Cleveland Cavaliers 24
Charlotte Hornets 24
 

lovegtm

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Yea, agree. I think Danny & Co did a decent job recovering after Horford shocked them. The Celtics have some flexibility. If any of VP, EK, DT or TL surprise to the upside he'll keep otherwise I expect he'll use them as filler to make a move for a tankers 5 *(see below) by January. As you know, I'm keeping my eye on Indy to see if their double BIG experiment works. Also, think Noel or Adams will be available from OKC. Or Vucevic at $15MM isn't a bad signing by Memphis.

Small quibble...on ESPN, Siakam is 6'9" 230 and 25. Tatum is listed as 6'8" 208 and 21. Maybe their #s are significantly off? At the moment, Siakam plays much more physical, aggressive and invites contact while Jayson avoids it. Tatum will grow into it, but I like how he looked practicing against Beal/Paul and didn't see those guys blow by him. I'd be much happier with JT playing the 2/3 this season. As he matures and his body fills out, he'll eventually develop into a dominant 4. BUT I'm not sure I want 21yr old Tatum battling with the Blake Griffin, Giannis, LeBron, Horford, Turner, OR be the guy to help on the BIG when our 5 gets caught on the perimeter. We'll see if Gordon can play the 4 or if Semi/Grant will get major minutes at the 4. Lots of tricky decisions to be made by Brad. I'm sure CBS will get his share of undeserved criticism from myself and others :redwine:

*potential tankers
Chicago Bulls 30½
Washington Wizards 28½
Oklahoma City Thunder 28
New York Knicks 27
Phoenix Suns 27
Memphis Grizzlies 25½
Cleveland Cavaliers 24
Charlotte Hornets 24
Yeah, I doubt Tatum is 208 anymore, looking at video. He also measured with the same standing reach as Siakam pre-draft and may have grown slightly since. Siakam’s extra physicality is more on the offensive than the defensive end. In any case, the point is mainly that both are the types of players who can play the 4 fine if you have a physical 5.

For guys available—Adams is really interesting and likely available as a salary dump, but it’s tough to make salaries work. The Celtics have had multiple chances to make a play for Noel and seem uninterested—I get that if they think his offensive fit just isn’t there, or if he’s not physical enough to bang with Giannis/Embiid types, which would lower his value a lot. At that point you go with the better offensive player in Kanter to let everyone develop, while holding out for a better option.

I’m very, very skeptical that Indy will be able to score enough if Sabonis and Turner play together with no Oladipo. The dysfunctional Celtics completely stifled them in the playoffs, and now they’re missing their only primary creator, Bojan. (Brogdon is really good but that’s not his skillset). They had a net rating of -1.7 post Oladipo injury. I definitely want to monitor that situation—I’ll probably watch a lot of Pacers highlights early in the year.
 

benhogan

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Yeah, I doubt Tatum is 208 anymore, looking at video. He also measured with the same standing reach as Siakam pre-draft and may have grown slightly since. Siakam’s extra physicality is more on the offensive than the defensive end. In any case, the point is mainly that both are the types of players who can play the 4 fine if you have a physical 5.

For guys available—Adams is really interesting and likely available as a salary dump, but it’s tough to make salaries work. The Celtics have had multiple chances to make a play for Noel and seem uninterested—I get that if they think his offensive fit just isn’t there, or if he’s not physical enough to bang with Giannis/Embiid types, which would lower his value a lot. At that point you go with the better offensive player in Kanter to let everyone develop, while holding out for a better option.

I’m very, very skeptical that Indy will be able to score enough if Sabonis and Turner play together with no Oladipo. The dysfunctional Celtics completely stifled them in the playoffs, and now they’re missing their only primary creator, Bojan. (Brogdon is really good but that’s not his skillset). They had a net rating of -1.7 post Oladipo injury. I definitely want to monitor that situation—I’ll probably watch a lot of Pacers highlights early in the year.
That pairing was a disaster in their 4 playoff games (32mins) together, but it wasn't something Nate really wanted to do. Turner can definitely shoot 3s at an efficient clip and I think Sabonis could this season. But they'd be much better off dealing one, both are excellent, smart, young players. Turner is signed LT on the cheap, he is the prototypical modern 5, can drill 3s and protects the rim. Sabonis has been making huge leaps for 3 straight seasons. Both have All-Star potential in the right situation.

I'd love to pair either one with the Jays and Kemba. If Langford is real and Danny gets an inkling that Brown will get too expensive he may be the main piece to go for Turner.
 

maufman

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Theis’ problem in earning more minutes is that he struggles against many matchups defensively. His +/- numbers don’t fully account for putting the opponent in an early bonus at the start do the 2nd and 4th quarters.

Even in his good matchups he doesn’t defend without fouling which is why he can’t be relied up for anything more than 9th man minutes at the back end of the rotation.
Agreed. Theis’s good metrics are a tribute to the skilled way Brad deployed him in situations where he could add value, and kept him on the bench when he was likely to be abused on the defensive end.

The excessive fouling is a finer point where he still might approve; he’s 27, but he only has two NBA seasons under his belt.
 

benhogan

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Agreed. Theis’s good metrics are a tribute to the skilled way Brad deployed him in situations where he could add value, and kept him on the bench when he was likely to be abused on the defensive end.

The excessive fouling is a finer point where he still might approve; he’s 27, but he only has two NBA seasons under his belt.
Meh, Brad's frontcourt substitution patterns were questionable at best last season. YMMV

I think we can all agree he needs to be much better this upcoming season
 

DrewDawg

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Bob Ryan was on one of the Celtics pods in last few days and said he's going with 50+ wins.