How many regular season games will the Celtics win in 2019-2020?

pjheff

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I would expect Langford to get most of those minutes you have allocated to Edwards.
I understand draft order, but I think that Edwards’ age, experience, physical maturity and shot more readily translate to early playing time. While the minutes are open to competition, I expect Langford to be brought along similarly to Rozier during his rookie year.

This is another reason I don’t have this team in the 50’s.....people are underestimating how little depth we really have.
Over the course of the season players will miss games. Last year we could easily replace someone with a quality young veteran in the lineup......this year we don’t have that luxury without Rozier and MaMo.
The lack of depth is absolutely a concern. Last year’s team had essentially nine starters on the roster while this squad has maybe five or six. My projects minutes slotted a late first and an early second round pick as 7th and 8th in rotation minutes with deep depth of guys like Ojeleye and Wanamaker. Good health will be particularly paramount for this team to reach its potential.
 

Captaincoop

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Those minutes will be won by Poirier or TL. I used Poirier by default based on what I’ve seen out of TL thus far. To be clear, those minutes are available.
Poirier didn't want to sign in the spring because he didn't want to sit on the bench in the US. I have a feeling he wouldn't have changed his tune this summer based on a pitch that he'd be coming in as the 4th in a 4-man rotation of post guys.

I'd bet that Kanter and Poirier are the 1 and 1A in some order, at least as camp opens.

What has anyone seen from TL to indicate that he deserves NBA minutes so far?
 

HomeRunBaker

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Poirier didn't want to sign in the spring because he didn't want to sit on the bench in the US. I have a feeling he wouldn't have changed his tune this summer based on a pitch that he'd be coming in as the 4th in a 4-man rotation of post guys.

I'd bet that Kanter and Poirier are the 1 and 1A in some order, at least as camp opens.

What has anyone seen from TL to indicate that he deserves NBA minutes so far?
Yes I agree with all of this and don’t expect TL to play any rotation minutes. There will still be an opportunity for him “should” he show he’s capable......which he hasn’t thus far. “If” he does show something he isn’t going to be blocked by anyone ahead of him which is all I was saying. Like you say, he hasn’t shown this ability yet.
 

lovegtm

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Theis’ problem in earning more minutes is that he struggles against many matchups defensively. His +/- numbers don’t fully account for putting the opponent in an early bonus at the start do the 2nd and 4th quarters.

Even in his good matchups he doesn’t defend without fouling which is why he can’t be relied up for anything more than 9th man minutes at the back end of the rotation.

If I had to guess we’d begin the year with a 3-headed “monster” of Kanter (24), Theis (14), and Poirier (10) on a typical night.
Yeah, this +100 wrt Theis fouling. Whenever people complain about him getting fouls called in gamethreads, I just laugh. He slaps down over and over, it’s brutal.
 

lovegtm

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Theis is a 5, and I wouldn't expect otherwise. He's short but has bounce, plays hard/aggressive and didn't really get pushed around that badly. He played 2 mins with Baynes and 23 mins with Horford all of last season, so I wouldn't expect to see him play the 4. If teams go double BIG (like Indy, Phila, Tor, Orlando or Mil) there is an outside chance we see him on the floor with TL? I really have no idea how Brad is going to thwart/address that?

Theis shot 75% on FTs and 39% on 3s in limited minutes. IMO He always played a hair tentative since a quick hook awaited any errors. A little rope may serve him well.

For what it's worth, his advanced numbers were very good in limited play (14mpg) last season. He had a positive OBPM, DBPM, VORP, ON/OFF, ORtg/DRtg.
Play him 20mpg and let's see what we have, if he sucks throw him in the filler pile after Dec 15

Wrt the bolded, defending 2-big offenses isn’t as hard as it intuitively seems that it would be. It’s generally a lot easier to collapse and help against them, especially if the offensive team is trying to exploit the size difference by going down low.

Milwaukee’s solution is to use Lopez for spacing, not size on offense. Philadelphia has to get really creative with their size, because Simmons and Embiid can’t space. They do a good job of making stuff work in tight spaces, but it’s a tightrope walk in general. Boston utterly smothered Sabonis+Turner in the playoffs: that pairing is a non-starter against locked-in defenses imo.

Obviously to exploit it on the other end, you have to commit to executing a real offense, not last year’s Kyrie/Al PnR + 3 potted plants shit.
 

NomarsFool

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There were a number of instances last season where TL was poised to have opportunities to get playing time, and it just didn't work out. I can't remember exactly, but I thought there were a couple of times when he had small injuries that caused him to miss a few games (or be limited) exactly at the time when there was playing time available because other bigs were out. I think there were also some games where he could have played a decent amount, but got into quick foul trouble (maybe that only happened once, can't recall for sure).

So, I think the FO's plan was that TL would see more minutes last year than he ended up playing - and that unfortunately wasn't great for his development. With 20/20 hindsight, they probably would have had him play more in Maine. I see them hoping that this year will be like last year was intended to be - playing some regular (albeit limited) minutes.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Factor Ojeleye into the rotation discussion. He's absolutely going to be given regular minutes at the start. I suspect 15 or so but maybe more. The coaching staff loves his work ethic and wants to give him a chance.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Factor Ojeleye into the rotation discussion. He's absolutely going to be given regular minutes at the start. I suspect 15 or so but maybe more. The coaching staff loves his work ethic and wants to give him a chance.
Yeah he’s going to probably get backend rotation minutes competing with G.Williams. Damn, we are going to be hurting once a couple guys go down.
 

lexrageorge

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Rotation wise, the top 6 are fairly obvious (in no particular order):

Kanter
Tatum
Brown
Hayward
Smart
Kemba

Theis and Wannamaker would round out the top 8 most likely. Then, going deeper into the bench:

Poirier
Semi
R. Williams
---
Da Rookies

I will avoid the temptation to rank Da Rookies until we actually see them put up actual NBA minutes. But I agree with the angst in this thread about the team's depth.
 

benhogan

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Wrt the bolded, defending 2-big offenses isn’t as hard as it intuitively seems that it would be. It’s generally a lot easier to collapse and help against them, especially if the offensive team is trying to exploit the size difference by going down low.

Milwaukee’s solution is to use Lopez for spacing, not size on offense. Philadelphia has to get really creative with their size, because Simmons and Embiid can’t space. They do a good job of making stuff work in tight spaces, but it’s a tightrope walk in general. Boston utterly smothered Sabonis+Turner in the playoffs: that pairing is a non-starter against locked-in defenses imo.

Obviously to exploit it on the other end, you have to commit to executing a real offense, not last year’s Kyrie/Al PnR + 3 potted plants shit.
Anyword on Tatum adding some strength/size/bulk this Summer?

Thank gawd Poirier, Kanter & Theis all like to pick/screen, so we won't have to witness that perimeter statues/potted plant crap.

More cuts, rubs and rolls to the rim.
 

Bernie Carbohydrate

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Rotation wise, the top 6 are fairly obvious (in no particular order):

Kanter
Tatum
Brown
Hayward
Smart
Kemba
...
Your putting Kanter at the top of your list breaks my heart. This is a guy whose offense is superb, but so inept on defense that he lost playing time to Luke Kornet last year. And if we didn't like Rozier's bitching about his role last year, prepare for Kanter to take to social media if he gets used as a backup by Stevens. I see a lot of eye-rolling emojis in his future, plus passive-aggressive press conferences where he states how much he respects the coach even as he clearly thinks the coach if a fool for not giving him starter's minutes.

He seems like a fun guy, but scoring 20 points while putting up a -20 isn't really helping the team.

FREE TL!
 

OurF'ingCity

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Yeah he’s going to probably get backend rotation minutes competing with G.Williams. Damn, we are going to be hurting once a couple guys go down.
In the sense that the team's short-term performance will suffer, sure. But given that I don't see any real chance the C's have of contending for a title this year under really any scenario other than a crazy, out-of-left-field blockbuster trade, I would be willing to sacrifice a handful of regular season wins for the rookies and backbenchers to get a bit more in-game experience, both for their own development and so the Cs have a better understanding of what each guy does or doesn't have. And once the playoffs come around, none of those guys are going to be playing meaningful minutes in any event unless they've shown themselves capable.

As you indicate, this will likely work itself out since there will inevitably be injuries.
 

HomeRunBaker

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In the sense that the team's short-term performance will suffer, sure. But given that I don't see any real chance the C's have of contending for a title this year under really any scenario other than a crazy, out-of-left-field blockbuster trade, I would be willing to sacrifice a handful of regular season wins for the rookies and backbenchers to get a bit more in-game experience, both for their own development and so the Cs have a better understanding of what each guy does or doesn't have. And once the playoffs come around, none of those guys are going to be playing meaningful minutes in any event unless they've shown themselves capable.

As you indicate, this will likely work itself out since there will inevitably be injuries.
Yeah exactly. It isn’t like Danny is out looking to fill his second unit with veterans. This approach in why I feel those in the 50+ win range are wearing green tinted shades.

There is a greater than zero chance that a couple injuries to starters, which is almost inevitable to some degree, could have us in tank mode post-ASB.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Rotation wise, the top 6 are fairly obvious (in no particular order):

Kanter
Tatum
Brown
Hayward
Smart
Kemba

Theis and Wannamaker would round out the top 8 most likely. Then, going deeper into the bench:

Poirier
Semi
R. Williams
---
Da Rookies

I will avoid the temptation to rank Da Rookies until we actually see them put up actual NBA minutes. But I agree with the angst in this thread about the team's depth.
I doubt Wanamaker is in the top 8.
 

OurF'ingCity

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There is a greater than zero chance that a couple injuries to starters, which is almost inevitable to some degree, could have us in tank mode post-ASB.
But what would "tank mode" even entail? They could spin off Kanter to a contender in need of production from the 5-spot for some lower-level draft capital, but other than that do they really have any pieces they'd be looking to jettison?
 

JakeRae

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But what would "tank mode" even entail? They could spin off Kanter to a contender in need of production from the 5-spot for some lower-level draft capital, but other than that do they really have any pieces they'd be looking to jettison?
This would be an anti tanking trade.
 

HomeRunBaker

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But what would "tank mode" even entail? They could spin off Kanter to a contender in need of production from the 5-spot for some lower-level draft capital, but other than that do they really have any pieces they'd be looking to jettison?
Is Ainge committed to paying Jaylen megabucks? If not he could be on the market. As you say, Kanter could be moved with minutes to TL regardless of his development.

Aside from that, if we lose two starters the lineups we’d have on the floor will resemble tank mode regardless of whether it is or not with our lack of depth and forced to play so many rookies.
 

Big John

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Meh, with the recent changes to the draft lottery, tanking ain't what it used to be. Just ask the Knicks.

As for Jaylen, I expect the Celtics to offer a below-market extension which will not be accepted, and restricted free agency will play itself out.
 
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lovegtm

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Yeah he’s going to probably get backend rotation minutes competing with G.Williams. Damn, we are going to be hurting once a couple guys go down.
I agree that the big position is thin/bad, but I don't really see the issues on the wing. Last year the problem there was that they were too deep, and the only guy they lost from the wing group was MaMo, who was creating a minutes crunch regardless. I don't think an injury to one of Smart/Tatum/Brown/Hayward would be the end of the world.

Agree that an injury to Kemba would obviously be brutal, and the shittiness at the 5 is well documented. But most teams aren't built to handle having a star go down: if the Lakers lose one of LeBron/AD+another starter for a long stretch, they probably miss the playoffs in the west. That's just life in the NBA.
 

DrewDawg

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Jay King takes a stab at the rotation.


There's no TL, Romeo, Poirier on his chart. He breaks it down by quarter. Jaylen is the 6th man.

Kemba: 34
Tatum: 34
Hayward: 34
Smart: 31
Brown: 28
Kanter: 24
Carsen: 10
Grant: 14
Semi: 6
Theis: 24


I don't know--do we see Semi getting fewer minutes than he got either of the past 2 seasons?
 

pjheff

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I don't know--do we see Semi getting fewer minutes than he got either of the past 2 seasons?
wade boggs chicken dinner might be right that “He's absolutely going to be given regular minutes at the start,” and maybe with his “hard work” he has improved, but I think he is going to be competing directly with Grant Williams to get on the floor. Williams seems to offer similar size and strength to Semi with the possibility of considerably more skill and polish. At the end of the day, I expect Williams to simply be a better basketball player than Ojeleye and earn those minutes.
 

bowiac

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Theis is the best all around C on the roster, but hard to see him getting 24 minutes; I think there's gonna be a lot of matchup plays there with Poirier and TL playing a good amount.
 

Captaincoop

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Jay King takes a stab at the rotation.


There's no TL, Romeo, Poirier on his chart. He breaks it down by quarter. Jaylen is the 6th man.

Kemba: 34
Tatum: 34
Hayward: 34
Smart: 31
Brown: 28
Kanter: 24
Carsen: 10
Grant: 14
Semi: 6
Theis: 24


I don't know--do we see Semi getting fewer minutes than he got either of the past 2 seasons?
He played less last year than he did the year before. And he didn't light the world on fire. He's a second-round pick playing scrub minutes. I don't expect them to keep giving him more time if he isn't showing improvement.
 

HomeRunBaker

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He played less last year than he did the year before. And he didn't light the world on fire. He's a second-round pick playing scrub minutes. I don't expect them to keep giving him more time if he isn't showing improvement.
The only reason he played so much as a rookie was due to injuries and our wings being so depleted. With reasonable health to our roster he doesn’t see the floor that first year.
 

DrewDawg

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He played less last year than he did the year before. And he didn't light the world on fire. He's a second-round pick playing scrub minutes. I don't expect them to keep giving him more time if he isn't showing improvement.
Sure, but the word is that the team really likes Semi and loves how hard he works and wants to give him a chance. I guess we'll see.
 

DrewDawg

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True, but they made Yabu go to Vegas---Semi didn't need to go that route. He got more minutes 2 seasons ago because Hayward was lost and there were 35 extra minutes every game to go around.
 

benhogan

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Theis is the best all around C on the roster, but hard to see him getting 24 minutes; I think there's gonna be a lot of matchup plays there with Poirier and TL playing a good amount.
If Theis stops fouling his ultimate upside is 24mpg, but my guess is 20mpg.

He's my favorite of our four horsemen (Kanter, Theis, Poirier, TL)
 

Eddie Jurak

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Ben Rohrbach: Celtics are high on Vincent Poirier. Talked to a couple people familiar with him. No. 1 thing that stood out: His athleticism. He led the Euroleague in rebounding. “That doesn’t happen by accident.” He passed up a bigger payday in Europe to come to the NBA.

I think Poirier is a key guy in the Celtics plans. I think their realistic wish for C is to be able to play Kanter and Poirier as a kind of offense/defense platoon, with Theis stepping in where there are favorable matchups for Theis.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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wade boggs chicken dinner might be right that “He's absolutely going to be given regular minutes at the start,” and maybe with his “hard work” he has improved, but I think he is going to be competing directly with Grant Williams to get on the floor. Williams seems to offer similar size and strength to Semi with the possibility of considerably more skill and polish. At the end of the day, I expect Williams to simply be a better basketball player than Ojeleye and earn those minutes.
I haven't found anything recently to confirm this but I do think Semi's going to be given regular minutes at the start so Cs can figure out if they have anything with him. Maybe Williams will end up outplaying him. We'll see.

Also, isn't Semi also playing in FIBA with Nigeria? If so, we should get a glimpse of whether or how much he's improved (though not enough to get a Hanlon video apparently).

He's still working though.

 

DannyDarwinism

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I haven't found anything recently to confirm this but I do think Semi's going to be given regular minutes at the start so Cs can figure out if they have anything with him. Maybe Williams will end up outplaying him. We'll see.

Also, isn't Semi also playing in FIBA with Nigeria? If so, we should get a glimpse of whether or how much he's improved (though not enough to get a Hanlon video apparently).

“Now hearing that Semi Ojeleye will not be playing for Nigera, so the Celtics are down to having six of their 14 players participating in World Cup training camps.”

Semi seems like a great guy and a hard worker, but Grant was much better at basketball in college than he was and is four years younger. If I had to guess, Grant is probably a better basketball player than he is right now. If not, it’s close and given the age difference and Grant’s higher ceiling, I hope he’s getting the spare developmental minutes.
 
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pjheff

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I haven't found anything recently to confirm this but I do think Semi's going to be given regular minutes at the start so Cs can figure out if they have anything with him. Maybe Williams will end up outplaying him.
It’s possible that CBS will go with the vet early and make the youngster earn those roles / minutes. Something similar could happen between Wanamaker and Edwards.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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“Now hearing that Semi Ojeleye will not be playing for Nigera, so the Celtics are down to having six of their 14 players participating in World Cup training camps.”

Semi seems like a great guy and a hard worker, but Grant was much better at basketball in college than he was and is four years younger. If I had to guess, Grant is probably a better basketball player than he is right now. If not, it’s close and given the age difference and Grant’s higher ceiling, I hope he’s getting the spare developmental minutes.
not saying this is predictive but Semi popped in his 3rd year college after not playing much. Maybe it can happen here. But the. Cs have to give him a shot.
 

DannyDarwinism

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not saying this is predictive but Semi popped in his 3rd year college after not playing much. Maybe it can happen here. But the. Cs have to give him a shot.
He did (heh), but even so, Grant was a better player in his third year, particularly on defense, while playing for a better team and being two years younger. IMO, his ceiling is as a good starter while Semi’s is situational role player. Competition is a good thing, so it’s great to have workout beasts like Semi raising the bar, but game reps are critical for development and minutes are a zero sum game.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Ben Rohrbach: Celtics are high on Vincent Poirier. Talked to a couple people familiar with him. No. 1 thing that stood out: His athleticism. He led the Euroleague in rebounding. “That doesn’t happen by accident.” He passed up a bigger payday in Europe to come to the NBA.

I think Poirier is a key guy in the Celtics plans. I think their realistic wish for C is to be able to play Kanter and Poirier as a kind of offense/defense platoon, with Theis stepping in where there are favorable matchups for Theis.
It wasn’t an accident when James Augustine and Tyler Honeycutt were the best Euroleague rebounders the two previous years either. Fluff alert lol.
 

Eddie Jurak

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It wasn’t an accident when James Augustine and Tyler Honeycutt were the best Euroleague rebounders the two previous years either. Fluff alert lol.
I know it is in your nature to be pessimistic about everything that relates to the Celtics, but as I recall they did not sign Augustine or Honeycutt. They did sign Theis to a vet minimum deal and he's proven useful. They signed Poirier to a bigger deal than that. It's stupid to dismiss the possibility that he, too, may prove useful.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I know it is in your nature to be pessimistic about everything that relates to the Celtics, but as I recall they did not sign Augustine or Honeycutt. They did sign Theis to a vet minimum deal and he's proven useful. They signed Poirier to a bigger deal than that. It's stupid to dismiss the possibility that he, too, may prove useful.
It’s not really pessimistic only pointing out the laughability of a fluff comment, Celtics player or not. I think Poirier will he useful and be a large part of oir 3-headed (non) monster in the middle. It’s a large part of why I have my win total capped in the 40’s.
 

benhogan

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It’s not really pessimistic only pointing out the laughability of a fluff comment, Celtics player or not. I think Poirier will he useful and be a large part of oir 3-headed (non) monster in the middle. It’s a large part of why I have my win total capped in the 40’s.
You're at 45-46 wins. ~2/3s of a Celtic board has them underperforming their Vegas line, so you're not alone. There is quite a bit of skepticism around here.

I don't see the Theis/Kanter/Poirier trifecta as our solution at the 5 past midseason (unless they shock all of us). Danny will be itching to deal after being handcuffed for 2yrs now
 

ggreene

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I think Poirier is a key guy in the Celtics plans. I think their realistic wish for C is to be able to play Kanter and Poirier as a kind of offense/defense platoon, with Theis stepping in where there are favorable matchups for Theis.
Lets see what training camp and preseason shows. I wouldn't mind it though. I don't see Theis projecting to 24mpg at least not at center. He's around 14mpg in the last two years and that's missing ~20 games with injuries. Not sure he is durable enough at that spot. PF would be better given the matchups.
 

HomeRunBaker

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You're at 45-46 wins. ~2/3s of a Celtic board has them underperforming their Vegas line, so you're not alone. There is quite a bit of skepticism around here.

I don't see the Theis/Kanter/Poirier trifecta as our solution at the 5 past midseason (unless they shock all of us). Danny will be itching to deal after being handcuffed for 2yrs now
Their Vegas number isn’t going to factor upgrades that may or may not occur. I’m only a couple wins below consensus. I think consensus is way too high based on my feeling that the risk to the under is much greater than the risk to the over. Two starters go down for significant amount of time this is likely a lottery team.......whereas either leaps would be needed to be made or a fairly significant short term upgrade to push the projection higher. That’s the way I view it anyway.
 

lexrageorge

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Their Vegas number isn’t going to factor upgrades that may or may not occur. I’m only a couple wins below consensus. I think consensus is way too high based on my feeling that the risk to the under is much greater than the risk to the over. Two starters go down for significant amount of time this is likely a lottery team.......whereas either leaps would be needed to be made or a fairly significant short term upgrade to push the projection higher. That’s the way I view it anyway.
Almost any team would underperform projections by a significant amount if two starters go down for a significant amount of time. That's a fairly catastrophic scenario. Charlotte won 39 games last year, and the 4 starters around Walker would be wiped off the floor if they played against Brown/Tatum/Hayward/Kanter/Smart.
 

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I agree with HRB that the Vegas line for the Celtics is a few wins too high. I'd be betting the under for sure if I weren't a fan of the team.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Almost any team would underperform projections by a significant amount if two starters go down for a significant amount of time. That's a fairly catastrophic scenario. Charlotte won 39 games last year, and the 4 starters around Walker would be wiped off the floor if they played against Brown/Tatum/Hayward/Kanter/Smart.
I’m not referring to last year’s Charlotte team but I do disagree with the beginning of your post. There are many teams deep enough to withstand losing a star or two starters and not fall apart due to having competent replacements. The Pacers played .500 following the Oladipo loss. The Nets OVERachieved despite losing LeVert for half the season and several other key rotation guys for 20+ games. Our roster as currently constructed is not designed to withstand key rotation injuries imo.
 

Big John

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I'm not betting a farthing one way or the other until I see what the Celtics look like on the floor together. There are more certain bets right now, e.g. the over on Orlando.
 

Jimbodandy

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I’m not referring to last year’s Charlotte team but I do disagree with the beginning of your post. There are many teams deep enough to withstand losing a star or two starters and not fall apart due to having competent replacements. The Pacers played .500 following the Oladipo loss. The Nets OVERachieved despite losing LeVert for half the season and several other key rotation guys for 20+ games. Our roster as currently constructed is not designed to withstand key rotation injuries imo.
Celtics are weak at big and shallow at point, but they have plenty of wings.

This is a almost certainly nothing more than a bridge year, so I'm not sure what difference it makes if they win 40 or 50.

I agree that the Vegas lines of 48-49 are a few games too high but have a hard time believing that anything short of a catastrophic Kemba injury puts this team in the lottery in the EC.
 

chilidawg

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I’m not referring to last year’s Charlotte team but I do disagree with the beginning of your post. There are many teams deep enough to withstand losing a star or two starters and not fall apart due to having competent replacements. The Pacers played .500 following the Oladipo loss. The Nets OVERachieved despite losing LeVert for half the season and several other key rotation guys for 20+ games. Our roster as currently constructed is not designed to withstand key rotation injuries imo.
Weren't you saying last year we had poor roster construction because we had too much depth? Maybe next year we can get it just right.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Mar 26, 2005
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The Pacers played .500 following the Oladipo loss.
That's not true. IND was 16-19 following VO's injury, 15-19 if one subtracts meaningless ATL last game of the season.

They also lost 10 of their final 11 games on the road, and the 11th was against a DET team that IIRC was missing Griffin.

I only point this out because I was keeping track of this in trying to figure out the Cs playoff seed last season.