How many regular season games will the Celtics win in 2019-2020?

benhogan

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Fair enough.

From my admittedly tiny minority point of view, the teams that concern me vis a vis the Celtics are the Hawks, Magic, Cavs, Bulls and Knicks of the world rather than Milwaukee, Toronto, Philadelphia and Indiana. The latter teams are going to be there at the end next year but those other teams have a shot to improve enough (particularly the Hawks) to pose an obstacle two or three years down the road when the Celtics are hopefully better and the kids have had enough seasoning to potentially be very effective in their roles.

I am not even worried about Milwaukee et al because the talent gap between them and Boston at present is pretty huge and, barring major injuries, I don't see the Celtics beating them in a series, even without Korver.
If you see a 42-44 win team, ~6 seed, would you:
1. Want to see TL get a serious look this season?
2. See Tatum/Brown, along with Kemba, be the focal point of the offense?
3. Look to move Hayward, if healthy/producing and the team is around .500 (since he can bolt at seasons end)?
4. Work in Edwards, Grant, and Romeo at the back end of rotations?

Winning would be priority #1, but use some minutes for guys that are actually going to be here for a few more seasons. There might be some merit to this if Milwaukee, Philly and others are much better then the Celtics this season
 

bsj

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i must be drinking the kool aid. I think 44 wins is the absolute floor for this team, and think its more likely a team that wins in the high 40's and absolutely can be a top 3-4 seed and ECF caliber team if everything breaks right.
 
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DrewDawg

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i must be drinking the kool aid. I think 44 wins is the absolute floor for this team, and think its more likely a team that wins in the high 40's and absolutely can be a top 3-4 seed and ECF caliber team if everything breaks right.
I second the motion.
 

Saints Rest

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i must be drinking the kool aid. I think 44 wins is the absolute floor for this team, and think its more likely a team that wins in the high 40's and absolutely can be a top 3-4 seed and ECF caliber team if everything breaks right.
I think at the point and wings, we are likely even, or maybe even ahead of last year (assuming Hayward continues to recover from his injury and the Kyrie/Kemba swap makes life better for all due to better chemistry).

OTOH, we lost our two best big men, and in the best case scenario, I think Kanter maybe can replace some of the lost offense, but I fear we are simply going to get crushed on the glass on a nightly basis. They lost three of their best four ORB, and two of their three best DRB.
 

Captaincoop

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I think at the point and wings, we are likely even, or maybe even ahead of last year (assuming Hayward continues to recover from his injury and the Kyrie/Kemba swap makes life better for all due to better chemistry).

OTOH, we lost our two best big men, and in the best case scenario, I think Kanter maybe can replace some of the lost offense, but I fear we are simply going to get crushed on the glass on a nightly basis. They lost three of their best four ORB, and two of their three best DRB.
Kanter is a better rebounder than anyone we lost. And Poirier is probably right there with the other two guys.

I'm worried about the ability to play defense from these bigs, but the rebounding should be at least a wash. In particular, this could be the best offensive rebounding team the C's have had in years
 

Saints Rest

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Kanter is a better rebounder than anyone we lost. And Poirier is probably right there with the other two guys.

I'm worried about the ability to play defense from these bigs, but the rebounding should be at least a wash. In particular, this could be the best offensive rebounding team the C's have had in years
True, but that assumes that Kanter's offense and rebounding will allow him to see the sort of minutes that Al and Aron played.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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I second the motion.
Third. I'm banking on improvement from the Jays and Hayward plus Kemba and much improved team chemistry. Green colored glasses and all but 50 wins is my number. I don't know how they'll fare in the playoffs but this seems like a team that will win a lot of regular season games to me.
 

OurF'ingCity

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Third. I'm banking on improvement from the Jays and Hayward plus Kemba and much improved team chemistry. Green colored glasses and all but 50 wins is my number. I don't know how they'll fare in the playoffs but this seems like a team that will win a lot of regular season games to me.
Yeah, I could see them overperforming in the regular season relatively speaking because they will be a pretty young team, have a chip on their shoulder from last year and many of the "true" contenders will be in more load management mode so the Cs may be able to steal games against the top teams in the regular season if they catch them on the right night. Still don't see the Cs doing much more in the playoffs this coming season than they did this past season.
 

benhogan

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Yeah, I could see them overperforming in the regular season relatively speaking because they will be a pretty young team, have a chip on their shoulder from last year and many of the "true" contenders will be in more load management mode so the Cs may be able to steal games against the top teams in the regular season if they catch them on the right night. Still don't see the Cs doing much more in the playoffs this coming season than they did this past season.
Getting blown out in the 2nd round to the EC runner-up is a pretty low bar
 

OurF'ingCity

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Getting blown out in the 2nd round to the EC runner-up is a pretty low bar
Do you see them doing better than that? Maybe they win a couple more games in the second round but I don't see this team as an ECF team. Don't get me wrong, I'd be ecstatic to be proven incorrect.
 

Sprowl

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Split off from the offseason thread. Maybe we'll add a poll to see if a consensus appears.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Those projecting low to mid-40’s seem about right to me. The floor is high due to having 4-5 high quality NBA players. The ceiling is low due to our defensive front court having the potential to produce a never ending layup line. I disagree with Big John’s wait and see approach.....This is pretty much what NBA purgatory looks like.
 

benhogan

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I have two concerns:
1. Like everyone else, I believe the defense up front is worrisome.
2. Compounded with Brad's incessant need to play small and no Al Horford around to bail Brad out. If he tries to play Kanter with Hayward or Tatum, masquerading as 4s, it will be a conga line to the rim. They will be unable to get stops late/tight.
 

Big John

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I disagree with Big John’s wait and see approach.....This is pretty much what NBA purgatory looks like.
So you think you know the answer on 7/22/19? There is no way to ascertain if the team has chemistry back until we see them play together, and chemistry is the biggest issue. My "approach" is that I do not know the answer right now.
 

benhogan

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So you think you know the answer on 7/22/19? There is no way to ascertain if the team has chemistry back until we see them play together, and chemistry is the biggest issue. My "approach" is that I do not know the answer right now.
I believe you have 49 wins as your floor
Last year's regular season performance is a pretty low bar too.
 

HomeRunBaker

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So you think you know the answer on 7/22/19? There is no way to ascertain if the team has chemistry back until we see them play together, and chemistry is the biggest issue. My "approach" is that I do not know the answer right now.
Of course nobody knows for certain. I only have my reasoning why I’m confident I can narrow it down closer than a 25-win range. Like I can absolutely knock 10 games off your ceiling without thinking twice. Barring multiple injuries or a major trade I’m confident 35 to 50 is ultra safe and even narrow is down a game or two off each end. This simply isn’t a “hit or miss” type roster like say a Houston.
 

Imbricus

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I'm a pessimist by nature, but I can see 51, 52 wins. I think Gordon will be better, the team chemistry will be much improved (and this will help Brad coach better), and the roles will be better defined. The center/power forward positions will be an adventure, but my guess is Danny watches those roles for a while, then makes a mid-season adjustment (trade, pickup), as long as the Celts are doing reasonably well. I can see the Celts going back to being scrappy overachievers.
 

Smokey Joe

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You guys realize that we are in the same conference as the hornets, the wizards, the cavs and the knicks, don’t you? There are some seriously bad teams out there before we get to up and coming teams like the magic, hawks and bulls.
 

lexrageorge

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44 wins, as of now. I don't see a floor much lower than that; Charlotte won 39 last year, and their supporting cast around Kemba was nowhere near as good as what the Celtics will have. If things break right, they could break into the low 50's.

One challenge Stevens will have is balancing wins and development. And he will need to find roles for guys like Robert Williams and possibly the rookies as well. And given the situation with the center position, Stevens will utilize lineups that will absolutely infuriate some here.
 

HomeRunBaker

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44 wins, as of now. I don't see a floor much lower than that; Charlotte won 39 last year, and their supporting cast around Kemba was nowhere near as good as what the Celtics will have. If things break right, they could break into the low 50's.

One challenge Stevens will have is balancing wins and development. And he will need to find roles for guys like Robert Williams and possibly the rookies as well. And given the situation with the center position, Stevens will utilize lineups that will absolutely infuriate some here.
I don’t think Stevens needs to find minutes for TL nearly as much as TL has the opportunity to take some. If he’s lost on defense as he’s shown a penchant for being he isn’t going to play on a non-tanking team. From my seat any minutes he gets will be deserved.
 

Big John

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Yes, the center position will be a competition. The question is how quickly Stevens will more Kanter to the second unit if Kanter can't do the job defensively.
 

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Yes, the center position will be a competition. The question is how quickly Stevens will more Kanter to the second unit if Kanter can't do the job defensively.
Kanter is clear liability on defense. There is no changing that at this point in his career and presumably the Celtics signed him knowing what he brings to the table and what he does not.

I think the team will surround him with their a rotation that covers for him but the problem is that if he is in the "starting" group, the Celtics then have at least two to three players (depending on what role Hayward has) on the floor who are varying degrees of minuses on defense - Kemba is actually a worse defender than Irving. Smart, Brown and Tatum can cover for one of these guys a bit but unlike the past few years, the lack of a Horford doing all his "average" things will be felt here the most.

I disagree with HRB in that I think the Celtics will give a lot more run to guys like TimeLord as well as the rookies this year without regard for results. Part of my low-to-mid 40s win prediction is based on the idea that the Celtics will allow guys like Williams the younger, Arson and Langford to get meaningful minutes while guys like Ojeleye get more of a shot to see if they can be an actual part of the rotation.

That said, if those predicting a low to mid 50s win total and a deep playoff run are right, I will be thrilled. I think that is an unrealistically optimistic view though.
 

Jimbodandy

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I don’t think Stevens needs to find minutes for TL nearly as much as TL has the opportunity to take some. If he’s lost on defense as he’s shown a penchant for being he isn’t going to play on a non-tanking team. From my seat any minutes he gets will be deserved.
Yeah they don't need to find minutes for anyone, but there are org reasons for suffering through some bad stretches in order to see what they have in the young guys.

There won't be a lot of quick hooks because this team isn't a contender barring a major miracle. And they'll eliminate any chance of that miracle if they ride low ceiling rotation guys until they drop.

This is not like the last two years where they were trying to contend.

Fwiw, I think that 48 is a bit high. Seems like 45 +/- 5 is about right.
 

nighthob

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Of course nobody knows for certain. I only have my reasoning why I’m confident I can narrow it down closer than a 25-win range. Like I can absolutely knock 10 games off your ceiling without thinking twice. Barring multiple injuries or a major trade I’m confident 35 to 50 is ultra safe and even narrow is down a game or two off each end. This simply isn’t a “hit or miss” type roster like say a Houston.
I don’t think that people have processed what Horford’s loss will mean to the defense. He’s been the defensive QB for three years now. Smart can do some of it, but he can’t step into those shoes. I expect this team to struggle early as it tries to establish a defensive identity, but to make hay after the all star break as usual (well, as usual when there’s no Brooklyn Nets on the roster gumming up the works).

I’m guessing that their range is 42-46 wins depending on how much they struggle coming out of the gate.
 

luckiestman

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I don’t think that people have processed what Horford’s loss will mean to the defense. He’s been the defensive QB for three years now. Smart can do some of it, but he can’t step into those shoes. I expect this team to struggle early as it tries to establish a defensive identity, but to make hay after the all star break as usual (well, as usual when there’s no Brooklyn Nets on the roster gumming up the works).

I’m guessing that their range is 42-46 wins depending on how much they struggle coming out of the gate.

Weren’t we a top 5 or so defense the year before Horford got here?
 

bigq

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Weren’t we a top 5 or so defense the year before Horford got here?
The year before Horford arrived the 2015-16 Celtics were 4th in the league in DRtg. Impressive given that IT led the team in minutes for the season and taking into consideration his supporting cast. Somehow Jared Sullinger led the team in DWS with 3.6. Maybe Danny should bring Sully back.

Getting back to the win total I’m going with between 45 and 50.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Weren’t we a top 5 or so defense the year before Horford got here?
We had Avery and Smart as part of the backcourt rotation with Crowder and Amir up front with Sully and Olynyk.

It had legit defensive pieces and positional defenders who understood the schemes to cover for Isaiah. We don’t have that Avery piece and will never have enough of these players on the floor to cover for both Kemba and Kanter against competent offenses.
 

HomeRunBaker

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You guys realize that we are in the same conference as the hornets, the wizards, the cavs and the knicks, don’t you? There are some seriously bad teams out there before we get to up and coming teams like the magic, hawks and bulls.
We still have to play the WC teams and those road games are as much of a loss as the games you mention above being wins. 50/50 maybe? The rest is the schedule is mostly against competent EC teams and a home game versus the WC teams.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Kanter is clear liability on defense. There is no changing that at this point in his career and presumably the Celtics signed him knowing what he brings to the table and what he does not.
Yes. I think there is going to be a lot of mixing and matching at C to keep him out of the worst matchups.
I disagree with HRB in that I think the Celtics will give a lot more run to guys like TimeLord as well as the rookies this year without regard for results. Part of my low-to-mid 40s win prediction is based on the idea that the Celtics will allow guys like Williams the younger, Arson and Langford to get meaningful minutes while guys like Ojeleye get more of a shot to see if they can be an actual part of the rotation.
Kemba led a terrible Charlotte team to 39 wins. In Marcus Smart's second year, the Celtics won 48 games with with Amir Johnson, Kelly Olynyk, Tyler Zeller, Jonas Jerebko, Jared Sullinger, and David Lee up front. And Evan Turner, Avery Bradley, and Jae Crowder at the wing. It is hard to believe that this team will top out at 44.
 

maufman

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For the past two years, the C’s have been resilient when players have missed time due to injury. This year’s team won’t have the same margin for error. Kemba and JT have both been durable, but this will be a bad team if one of them misses extended time due to injury. Even the 10 games or so when one of them is getting normal rest will be tricky to manage.

My concern will be eased if GH re-emerges as an all-star caliber player, but I don’t expect that to happen.

Put me down for 45 wins, but the error bars on that projection are bigger than usual.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Yes. I think there is going to be a lot of mixing and matching at C to keep him out of the worst matchups.
This is an issue. Who do you mix and match with when it's a bad Kanter matchup? Enes can be a good 2nd unit fit for the right team but when he's your best big you are in pretty horrific shape.

Kemba led a terrible Charlotte team to 39 wins. In Marcus Smart's second year, the Celtics won 48 games with with Amir Johnson, Kelly Olynyk, Tyler Zeller, Jonas Jerebko, Jared Sullinger, and David Lee up front. And Evan Turner, Avery Bradley, and Jae Crowder at the wing. It is hard to believe that this team will top out at 44.
The thing missing from this team are all those frontcourt role players you mention who understand defensive schemes and have high BBIQ's. We really don't have an Amir, or an Olynyk, or even a Sully. This presents an enormous defensive hole amongst our bigs to go along with Kemba's defensive struggles on the perimeter.
 

mikeot

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For the past two years, the C’s have been resilient when players have missed time due to injury. This year’s team won’t have the same margin for error. Kemba and JT have both been durable, but this will be a bad team if one of them misses extended time due to injury. Even the 10 games or so when one of them is getting normal rest will be tricky to manage.

My concern will be eased if GH re-emerges as an all-star caliber player, but I don’t expect that to happen.

Put me down for 45 wins, but the error bars on that projection are bigger than usual.

Gordo is mos def the unknown variable here, whether or not he will ever return to his previous peak ability. The difference here in and of itself whether or not the team can get to 50 wins IMHO.
 

benhogan

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The thing missing from this team are all those frontcourt role players you mention who understand defensive schemes and have high BBIQ's.
You don't know what you've got until it's gone...Aron come back:eek:

I pined hard this offseason for Danny to add a defense-first frontcourt player (ie Noel, Turner/Sabonis pipe dream, Jerami Grant etc). Maybe Danny/Brad feel Theis, TL or Poirier can fill that role or they want to give it a look/try first. If not they can deal for one on Dec. 15th

Kanter is MaMo redux. He'll put up flashy offensive counting numbers (double-doubles) and may even become a 35% 3pt shooter BUT his PnR defense will be so bad that his ON/OFF numbers will be dreadful. Enes (like MaMo) can add more value playing against 2nd units, where his defensive deficiencies will not get as exposed. Danny calling Enes part of Plan A is a little worrisome. Playing Enes a lot of high leverage minutes will considerably affect the Celtics win total IMO
 
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DrewDawg

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I'm back to liking the old "if you're optimistic you are a homer" things we're starting to see. I'm all in for that.
 

maufman

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Gordo is mos def the unknown variable here, whether or not he will ever return to his previous peak ability. The difference here in and of itself whether or not the team can get to 50 wins IMHO.
The Jazz didn’t miss a beat without GH in 2017-18. That’s a tribute to Donovan Mitchell, but if GH could be replaced by a rookie (albeit an outstanding one), he probably was a bit overrated.
 

luckiestman

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The Jazz didn’t miss a beat without GH in 2017-18. That’s a tribute to Donovan Mitchell, but if GH could be replaced by a rookie (albeit an outstanding one), he probably was a bit overrated.

Michael Jordan overrated too. Do 1993-1994 season Bulls vs 1992-1993 season.
 

benhogan

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I'm back to liking the old "if you're optimistic you are a homer" things we're starting to see. I'm all in for that.
I don't think optimism equates to being a homer. The error bars are wide with this team with so much team turnover, youth and the complete dysfunction last season. Plus the EC is worse, playing hard during the regular season could easily equate to more wins.
 

lovegtm

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The Jazz didn’t miss a beat without GH in 2017-18. That’s a tribute to Donovan Mitchell, but if GH could be replaced by a rookie (albeit an outstanding one), he probably was a bit overrated.
The Paul-Griffin-Reddick-DJ Clippers were a really good team. I don’t think there’s any way the Jazz get through them with Mitchell in place of Hayward.

I get that people are frustrated with last year, but the whole “X player is a fraud because he’s on the Celtics and I don’t want to be a homer” thing is getting a bit ridiculous. Gordon Hayward was a really good player pre-injury, probably top-15 given positional scarcity and versatility. It sucks that things haven’t worked out, but he was a great get in FA at the time.
 

Eddie Jurak

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For the past two years, the C’s have been resilient when players have missed time due to injury. This year’s team won’t have the same margin for error. Kemba and JT have both been durable, but this will be a bad team if one of them misses extended time due to injury. Even the 10 games or so when one of them is getting normal rest will be tricky to manage.

My concern will be eased if GH re-emerges as an all-star caliber player, but I don’t expect that to happen.

Put me down for 45 wins, but the error bars on that projection are bigger than usual.
I think they will be able to withstand some amount of wing injuries as they have real depth there. Losing Kemba would be a major blow. Losing any big who emerges as even a contributing role player will also be a blow.