How Many Of These FA Pitchers Will Earn Their Upcoming Contracts?

[jon abbey]

OK, a simple poll here:

I'm leaving out Ohtani as he is a unicorn and Yamamoto as he is much younger than the others, and I'm curious to know of these five SPs:

Aaron Nola
Blake Snell
Jordan Montgomery
Sonny Gray
Eduardo Rodriguez (I don't think officially opted out yet but for the purposes of this, let's assume he will)

How many do you think will live up to the undoubtedly large contracts all are about to sign? You don't have to choose which will, just how many out of the 5.

 

[jon abbey]

The point here being, in case anyone didn't know, it is fucking hard to buy your way into a better baseball team. People are saying TEX did it but they completely whiffed on deGrom (so far anyway) and had to ship out a ton of prospect capital for Montgomery and Scherzer at the deadline. And of course the three biggest 2023 payroll teams (NYM, NYY, SDP) all missed the playoffs this year even with 6 teams from each league making it now.

 

[chrisfont9]

Is your question whether they will meet or exceed the value of their deal using the $ per WAR (which is no more than $9m for free agents at the moment)? Or are you asking for a more subjective call? I see two very good, dependable WAR bets on there.

 

[jon abbey]

Is your question whether they will meet or exceed the value of their deal using the $ per WAR (which is no more than $9m for free agents at the moment)? Or are you asking for a more subjective call? I see two very good, dependable WAR bets on there.

Actually just in the process of writing a post nailing that down, good question.

 

[jon abbey]

$ per WAR for me is (and always has been) meaningless, the way I am using 'earn' here is if you went to the GM of the signing team after the contract expires and ask 'knowing what you know now, would you have signed that deal back then or not?'.

It's subjective admittedly but many should end up as clear calls either way, I think. We can hash out the nuances here in five or seven years if we're still around then.

 

[tims4wins]

The reality is that this post basically applies to every free agent, ever (which I think is the point of your post). And the answer is, I think in the long run, < 50%.

 

[jon abbey]

The reality is that this post basically applies to every free agent, ever (which I think is the point of your post). And the answer is, I think in the long run, < 50%.

Yes, just you can rarely group them this neatly.

 

[chrisfont9]

$ per WAR for me is (and always has been) meaningless, the way I am using 'earn' here is if you went to the GM of the signing team after the contract expires and ask 'knowing what you know now, would you have signed that deal back then or not?'.

It's subjective admittedly but many should end up as clear calls either way, I think. We can hash out the nuances here in five or seven years if we're still around then.

OK, but to push back on the meaning of $/WAR, it would certainly have meaning in a hard-capped world like the NFL, no? MLB's isn't that similar but the limits do tend to influence owner behavior. If your point is more about the number, taking an average of, essentially, apples and oranges probably doesn't give you much more than a starting point. Top-end pitching looks nothing like the cost of a decent utility infielder and the actual comparables for these guys are all more than $18m/year. And Blake Snell's current season would not have literally justified a $54m payout. But $9m per is a starting point.

 

[jon abbey]

MLB's isn't that similar but the limits do tend to influence owner behavior.

I'm curious how Steve Cohen's behavior since taking over will affect other owners this winter, but basically I am just curious how many of these contracts will end up being ones that the teams are happy with when they're over. $/WAR in MLB has never seemed to have any relation to reality for me, maybe that's just me but that wasn't what I was interested in here anyway.

 

[chrisfont9]

I'm curious how Steve Cohen's behavior since taking over will affect other owners this winter, but basically I am just curious how many of these contracts will end up being ones that the teams are happy with when they're over. $/WAR in MLB has never seemed to have any relation to reality for me, maybe that's just me but that wasn't what I was interested in here anyway.

OK, well I think I would still say 2, based on consistency, since two more are rather boom-bust and one (law of averages, but also Edro) seems like maybe an injury risk or otherwise not Mr. Reliable. None of them are going to lead the way to a title in true Ace style, but competently eating innings is a pretty great thing these days, given the ripple effects of injuries and short outings on a staff.

 

[simplicio]

Depends a lot on how they're valued. Can Snell pull a DeGrom/Rodon and convince his next team he's a 180 IP guy despite obvious signals to the contrary?

The past couple seasons of injury plagued Sox pitching may have me over correcting, but these days I'm valuing reliable innings more than gaudy WAR/IP ratios. The remaining innings always have to come from somewhere and taxing the rest of the staff is a real cost.

Then again, a team with existing reliable starters could probably absorb that downside better, so maybe they'd end up happy with 130 innings of Snell at 180 inning prices.

 

[jon abbey]

Depends a lot on how they're valued.

I left a month for people to vote, I'm sure some of these guys will sign before that. I have also been assuming for a while that they will all be very very well compensated, a ton of teams ready to spend and very little in the position player market this winter.

 

[simplicio]

I started with 2; I think Nola and Montgomery are the most likely to perform over the length of a contract.

I think the others are riskier in that I wouldn't trust them as much to produce full seasons of work but due to the competitive market I think they'll probably get someone to make an optimistic/forced play.

Gray I'd predict as being the third most likely to succeed, just cause he's older and I think he'll get fewer years.

If I could use decimals I'd vote around a 1.7.

 

[Seels]

I'm reasonably confident that Snell won't regardless of how much he signs for. Too few innings, too many walks. He's going to be a bad signing unless some team snags him for like 5/85.

 

[AlNipper49]

The top end of the pitching market brings with it a lot of risk. With any of these guys the potential max upside is going to be hard to reconcile with the downside risk, particularly on a team like the Sox where their most expensive pitcher is clearly one of the leaders in the risk part of the equation.

The Yanks have lost this far on their version of this, Rodon, but a Cole being an automatic ace makes it easier to absorb.

 

[LogansDad]

Zero.

 

[ehaz]

I wouldn't bet on it but if I had to take one I'd take Aaron Nola. His stuff has been consistent, doesn't really walk guys, hasn't lost anything on his fastball, makes 30 starts every year, well seasoned in October. I could see him being one of the few big pitcher contracts that ages pans out in his early 30s.

Snell is going to be a disaster.

Eduardo I just have a bad feeling about. I don't see that career year deal aging well.

Jordan Montgomery I think is going to get a lot of money for his age 31-35ish seasons as a guy who is pretty good but doesn't really miss enough bats.

Sonny Gray---I have no idea. After seemingly burning out with injuries and poor performance in his late 20s, he's quietly had two excellent seasons in Minnesota. At 34, also by far the oldest in this list. Is the 5'10 guy going to age gracefully? He just led the league in FIP. Maybe age depresses his market enough.

 

[jon abbey]

OK, two of these five have now signed:

Nola: 7/172
Gray: 3/75

Pretty surprised Gray didn't at least get a 4th year even though he is 34.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

I like Grey for 3/75. I think he’s a very safe bet to earn/exceed that value.

Nola, as others have said, feels a lot like Porcello. I don’t think that contract will age that well. I wasn’t even remotely disappointed when he signed elsewhere.

Snell, as I mentioned, I would not want on a huge contract. He’s pitched 180 innings twice in his career, and less than 130 every other year.

Rodriguez is a guy I wasn’t upset about losing to free agency. He’s never really been dominant, and I always remember him as a guy who used way too many pitches to get way too few outs. This season aside, he feels like a guy who is just as likely to put up a 3.80 ERA or a 4.80 ERA.

Montgomery - really depends what he gets. I like him as a #2.

 

[Apisith]

In terms of total dollars, Gray and Nola got nearly ~20% more than the Fangraphs crowdsource results.

 

[jon abbey]

In terms of total dollars, Gray and Nola got nearly ~20% more than the Fangraphs crowdsource results.

And that's with both of them basically picking the team they wanted to go to. People will counter that by saying 'of course they say that after they sign' but really the only reason for any of these top SPs to sign as quickly as those two did is that they wanted to go to one team if at all possible. Once a few more of the top guys sign, the remaining teams looking to add a top SP are going to get really desperate.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I guess it all depends. The Red Sox certainly check all the boxes of a team that should be desperate to add starting pitching, but they seem to have had tepid interest in the guys who have signed already. So it’s kind of hard to figure out what’s going on (imagine the presence of a QO attached to some of these guys didn’t help).

Once Montgomery, Snell, and Yamamoto are gone- what’s left? Will teams suddenly go nuts to land a Stroman, Giolito, or E-Rod? The same teams that weren’t really in on Gray?

I’m guessing one of Burnes / Montgomery, and then a Wacha, Manea, or Lugo or something.

 

[DanoooME]

The answer is simple:

View: https://youtu.be/NkCa49I6_xw?si=X_fKvylVjikrOXmS

 

[ehaz]

Very early look at how last year's contracts are shaping up:

Looking Like a Steal
- Kodai Senga (5/$75M)
- Zach Eflin (3/$40)
- Nate Eovaldi (2/$32)

Solid, Probably Worth It
- Justin Verlander (2/$86)
- Chris Bassitt (3/$64)

Overpaid, but Eating Innings
- Taijuan Walker (4/$72)
- Jameson Taillon (4/$68)

Potential Disaster
- Jacob DeGrom (5/$185)
- Carlos Rodon (6/$162)
- Tyler Anderson (3/$40)