How many men in the rotation?

When the Celtics are at full health, how many players will be used for meaningful minutes?

  • 8

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • 9

    Votes: 13 33.3%
  • 10

    Votes: 21 53.8%
  • 11

    Votes: 1 2.6%
  • 12

    Votes: 4 10.3%

  • Total voters
    39
  • Poll closed .

JakeRae

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 21, 2005
8,125
New York, NY
I'm starting this thread to discuss the question of how the margins of the rotation are deployed. I think the preseason has shown that there is a clear group of 9 guys Brad is certain of as rotation players. The question then becomes how many other guys play real minutes on a healthy roster and who are they?

My sense is the consensus here is we should run 10 deep and Theis is the 10th guy. I think that is a reasonable position, and I think Theis is the best of the guys who aren't rotation locks, but Brad's usage in the preseason makes me think he doesn't agree. Theis has basically played as a third unit player, not a second unit player, and has been behind Yabusele in getting in games. I think we might be looking at a team that only plays 9 guys when healthy.

But, what says SoSH?

Note, this is about regular season rotation, not playoffs.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,095
I agree with you that it will be a 10-man rotation with the 10th man being determined by matchups, foul trouble, etc when fully healthy and that the 10th man will be Theis on most nights. Certain matchups could allow Brad to utilize Larkin or even go with an 11-man one on some nights in small ball lineups.

Brad is giving the rookies a lot of minutes early so they can see real live NBA action in non-regular season games. Tatum is 1st in minutes during these first 3 games, Ojeleye is 3rd with some of the relatively older players like Baynes, Larkin, and Theis in the 14-16 mpg range. I wouldn't read anything more about the rookies seeing a few more minutes than veterans especially in the case of Theis who has been playing with his national team all summer.
 

Eddie Jurak

canderson-lite
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2002
44,474
Melrose, MA
There are 9 who will play every game: Horford, Hayward, Irving, Morris, Smart, Brown, Rozier, Tatum, Baynes.

The 10th guy will vary between Theis, Yabusele, and Ojeleye based on the game and the matchup.

The last 2 guys - Larkin and Nader - will rarely play, barring injuries.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
There are 9 who will play every game: Horford, Hayward, Irving, Morris, Smart, Brown, Rozier, Tatum, Baynes.

The 10th guy will vary between Theis, Yabusele, and Ojeleye based on the game and the matchup.

The last 2 guys - Larkin and Nader - will rarely play, barring injuries.

Pretty much this. I could see Nader possibly earning himself minutes depending on how things break. A lot of it depends on how many minutes Baynes gets too.
 

soxfan121

JAG
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
23,043
I think they end up playing more guys and they do it with both an eye toward the playoffs and toward next year & beyond. This many rookies (ahem, assets) only retain or increase their value with selected playing time. So five to seven minutes a night are developmental time. I think ownership will care if they don't finish first in the east again; I don't think Ainge or Stevens will give a shit as long as they keep all the long term projects fed and watered and growing.
 

Reardon's Beard

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 3, 2005
3,795
Man, going over the names in my head I forgot just how much the roster turned over top to bottom.

Like someone mentioned - 9 every night with the 10th depending on matchups and maybe 11 if injury/foul/ejection etc.
 

JakeRae

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 21, 2005
8,125
New York, NY
I agree with you that it will be a 10-man rotation with the 10th man being determined by matchups, foul trouble, etc when fully healthy and that the 10th man will be Theis on most nights. Certain matchups could allow Brad to utilize Larkin or even go with an 11-man one on some nights in small ball lineups.

Brad is giving the rookies a lot of minutes early so they can see real live NBA action in non-regular season games. Tatum is 1st in minutes during these first 3 games, Ojeleye is 3rd with some of the relatively older players like Baynes, Larkin, and Theis in the 14-16 mpg range. I wouldn't read anything more about the rookies seeing a few more minutes than veterans especially in the case of Theis who has been playing with his national team all summer.
It's not about minutes, it's about who is playing with whom. Theis has been getting his time with the third string guys, not getting worked into minutes with the second string. That's what makes me wonder if Brad isn't planning on playing more than 9 guys consistently.
 

thehitcat

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 25, 2003
2,376
Windham, ME
I don't think they brought Larkin over here to sit on the bench for DNP after DNP. I think he's certainly in the running for the 10 spot but if not because we need size there (Theis, Yabu) then I think they'll play 11 with all 11 getting at least 8 minutes on any given night through the end of December. Then I think they reassess and start to decide where they are fat and where they are thin as they move toward the deadline. So I'm going with 11 until December then 10 until the deadline and then probably 9 for the run in and the playoffs barring in game injuries or extreme foul trouble.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,111
Santa Monica
here is my guess: Brad needs to go with 10 (Theis being the 10th) early, since it will take a few weeks for Morris to get his legs under him. Theis will bring lots of energy in his 10mins/game and will become an important piece as the season moves on. Al and Baynes are the older guys on the team and will need reduced minutes as the season wears on. Theis ability to front Bigs and switch off onto wings will work well in Brad's system.

He's been grouped with Yabusele and Ojeleye, but think his age, pro/intl experience, and shot blocking/rebounding skills put him ahead of those two.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,111
Santa Monica
I don't think they brought Larkin over here to sit on the bench for DNP after DNP. I think he's certainly in the running for the 10 spot but if not because we need size there (Theis, Yabu) then I think they'll play 11 with all 11 getting at least 8 minutes on any given night through the end of December. Then I think they reassess and start to decide where they are fat and where they are thin as they move toward the deadline. So I'm going with 11 until December then 10 until the deadline and then probably 9 for the run in and the playoffs barring in game injuries or extreme foul trouble.
I think they signed Larkin to be IT4 injury insurance. Ainge had a good idea that IT4 was starting the season on the DL, so Larkin was probably starting out behind Smart and Rozier at PG. At this point, Larkin gets time in blowouts and no meaningful minutes with a healthy Irving, Rozier and Smart.

So I don't think he's part of the rotation.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,678
I don't think they brought Larkin over here to sit on the bench for DNP after DNP. I think he's certainly in the running for the 10 spot but if not because we need size there (Theis, Yabu) then I think they'll play 11 with all 11 getting at least 8 minutes on any given night through the end of December.
That is literally why they signed Larkin, to be the break glass in case of emergency point guard. They aren't playing a regular five guard rotation.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
30,482
-Brad doesn't run his lineups the way the question is asking. I think we know that 8 guys will likely play every game - Horford, Hayward, Irving, Morris, Smart, Brown, Tatum, and Rozier - and then Brad will mix and match Theis, Baynes. Semi, Nader, Yabu and Larkin depending on matchups, lineups he's trying out, score, and the like.

Of course if Yabu or Larkin end up in Maine at all, that would change things but I think Brad is going to try to get all of these guys minutes so long as they show something positive on the court.
 

sezwho

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
1,950
Isle of Plum
-Brad doesn't run his lineups the way the question is asking. I think we know that 8 guys will likely play every game - Horford, Hayward, Irving, Morris, Smart, Brown, Tatum, and Rozier - and then Brad will mix and match Theis, Baynes. Semi, Nader, Yabu and Larkin depending on matchups, lineups he's trying out, score, and the like.

Of course if Yabu or Larkin end up in Maine at all, that would change things but I think Brad is going to try to get all of these guys minutes so long as they show something positive on the court.
I voted 10 because I feel like Theis will get a chance to show what he has. I'm also pretty sure Baynes plays every night and is likely to actually start a fair amount, but I'm on board with the rest of this post. The rest of the roster will get occasional Cs/Red Claw minutes based on match-ups, health etc.

Looking at the extensive roster turnover, I think a large piece of how minutes get allocated for a while will be based on who picks up the system in practice. Yes, we are talking about practice.
 

ALiveH

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
1,104
I voted 12 because that's how deep they went last year and the year before last. Injuries and needed time off are just a fact of life. Last year, even the 12th man (Gerald Green) got in 47 games and was even a playoff starter. The year before that Rozier (as a rookie) was the 12th man and he got into 39 games and ended up playing 20 MPG in the playoffs.

Brad goes deep, even with rookies.
 

Eddie Jurak

canderson-lite
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2002
44,474
Melrose, MA
-Brad doesn't run his lineups the way the question is asking. I think we know that 8 guys will likely play every game - Horford, Hayward, Irving, Morris, Smart, Brown, Tatum, and Rozier - and then Brad will mix and match Theis, Baynes. Semi, Nader, Yabu and Larkin depending on matchups, lineups he's trying out, score, and the like.

Of course if Yabu or Larkin end up in Maine at all, that would change things but I think Brad is going to try to get all of these guys minutes so long as they show something positive on the court.
I mostly agree - the only place where I disagree is that I'd count Baynes in the "play every game" category.

I voted 12 because that's how deep they went last year and the year before last. Injuries and needed time off are just a fact of life. Last year, even the 12th man (Gerald Green) got in 47 games and was even a playoff starter. The year before that Rozier (as a rookie) was the 12th man and he got into 39 games and ended up playing 20 MPG in the playoffs.

Brad goes deep, even with rookies.
Agree, in the sense that after 9, there will be several guys who get minutes at various times. I don't think there will be 10 specific guys who get all of the playing time. I think all 14 will get minutes, with at least 12 getting a decent look at some point during the season.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,095
I voted 12 because that's how deep they went last year and the year before last. Injuries and needed time off are just a fact of life. Last year, even the 12th man (Gerald Green) got in 47 games and was even a playoff starter. The year before that Rozier (as a rookie) was the 12th man and he got into 39 games and ended up playing 20 MPG in the playoffs.

Brad goes deep, even with rookies.
Naturally we will see our 12th man play regular rotation minutes in some games when injuries knock players out of the lineup as has occurred in the past but that wasn't how the original question was phrased. The OP specifically stated "on a healthy roster" and I'm assuming that blowouts/garbage time are to be omitted. There were only a handful of close games over the past 2 years where Brad went deeper than a 10-man rotation and those short minutes for the 11th guy were on back-to-back nights.

That is literally why they signed Larkin, to be the break glass in case of emergency point guard. They aren't playing a regular five guard rotation.
Yes to this. Larkin was acquired mostly as insurance in the case a Kyrie-deal wasn't made or if Smart/Rozier had to be included in that deal. He isn't going be part of a regular rotation but I can see him in spot minutes of small ball or in certain other emergencies, foul trouble or injuries.

-Brad doesn't run his lineups the way the question is asking. I think we know that 8 guys will likely play every game - Horford, Hayward, Irving, Morris, Smart, Brown, Tatum, and Rozier - and then Brad will mix and match Theis, Baynes. Semi, Nader, Yabu and Larkin depending on matchups, lineups he's trying out, score, and the like.

Of course if Yabu or Larkin end up in Maine at all, that would change things but I think Brad is going to try to get all of these guys minutes so long as they show something positive on the court.
I can't imagine a healthy Baynes not playing every game as our primary backup at the 5......I feel he's likely to get starts against a certain number of bigs as well. I'm not sure if Larkin is eligible for the G-League as this is his 4th NBA season.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,678
Larkin was acquired mostly as insurance in the case a Kyrie-deal wasn't made or if Smart/Rozier had to be included in that deal. He isn't going be part of a regular rotation but I can see him in spot minutes of small ball or in certain other emergencies, foul trouble or injuries.
Yeah, the odds favor Irving missing 15-20 games in any given season, so there are clearly going to be some minutes for Larkin when one or more of the regular guards are out.
 

JakeRae

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 21, 2005
8,125
New York, NY
To clarify, obviously all 14 guys will get some time. Even Jordan Mickey played in 25 games last year, but it was pretty much all garbage time. I would say there were 10 guys in this category a year ago. Green and Zeller each played around 50 games, but a significant portion was because of injuries or garbage time. Bradley, in contrast, only played in 55 games but was clearly part of the healthy rotation.

As a point of contrast, the Spurs actually had a 12 man rotation. 12 guys played in 60 or more games and they all averaged real minutes. Bertans had the lowest mpg total at 12, but he played in 67 games, indicating he wasn't just an injury sub.

(This is not an easy question to reconstruct historical answers to because of the impact of injuries and trades. The Spurs and Celtics are easy, because they were fairly healthy and didn't make any major trades.)
 

Eddie Jurak

canderson-lite
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2002
44,474
Melrose, MA
Yabusele came back to earth after his nice preseaon game 3. I think the deep bench shakes out like this, more or less:

10. Theis
11. Ojeleye
12. Yabusele
13. Larkin
14. Nader

It is only Yabusele's bulk that keeps him from slotting in at 14. If Baynes is out for any length of time, Yabu will sneak his way into some minutes for that reason alone.

However, he is the least NBA-ready of all of the roster.

What I expect to happen (once Baynes is good to go) is that Yabu will spend large stretches of time in Maine with a few recalls when the Celtics play teams that like to go big.

Theis and Ojeleye look like they have some NBA-ready aspects of their game right now, whereas Yabu is more of a project.

Nader is at the bottom of the list simply for reasons of depth. Wing types ahead of Nader: Hayward, Brown, Smart, Morris, Tatum, arguably Rozier. As a pure 3&D guy, Ojeleye could get some minutes behind that group because he brings something a little different from them that the Celtics may need on occasion. Nader is more of a lesser version of the wings they have.

Legit PG options on the Celtics are Irving and Smart (Rozier could maybe fake it in a lineup with Hayward and Horford), so there's a slightly more direct route to playing time for Larkin than for Nader.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,095
To clarify, obviously all 14 guys will get some time. Even Jordan Mickey played in 25 games last year, but it was pretty much all garbage time. I would say there were 10 guys in this category a year ago. Green and Zeller each played around 50 games, but a significant portion was because of injuries or garbage time. Bradley, in contrast, only played in 55 games but was clearly part of the healthy rotation.

As a point of contrast, the Spurs actually had a 12 man rotation. 12 guys played in 60 or more games and they all averaged real minutes. Bertans had the lowest mpg total at 12, but he played in 67 games, indicating he wasn't just an injury sub.

(This is not an easy question to reconstruct historical answers to because of the impact of injuries and trades. The Spurs and Celtics are easy, because they were fairly healthy and didn't make any major trades.)
There were rare occasions last season when the Spurs used more than a 10-man rotation on a given night. Without foul trouble, in-game injury or a blowout even on back-to-backs the Spur went 10-deep. Sure more than 10 saw significant time over the season just as our 11th and 12th men did last year (Green and Zeller) when injuries occurred but if Pop used an 11th player on a given night it was almost always due to an in-game emergency adjustment.
 

mauf

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers
Moderator
SoSH Member
The answer to the poll question is largely one of semantics. In my book, a guy who logs DNP-CDs more than a few times a year isn’t “part of the rotation,” so I think it’s a 9-man rotation, consisting of the guys @Eddie Jurak identifies above. Reasonable opinion can differ.
 

Eddie Jurak

canderson-lite
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2002
44,474
Melrose, MA
Well, this thread went sideways in a hurry.

Minus Gordon things are going to look a lot different, with the main beneficiaries (in playing time) likely to be Tatum, Brown, Rozier, and Morris (once he's back).

In the short-term, I think Stevens will stick with Brown and Tatum joining Irving and Horford in the starting lineup, with the 5th starter being one of Smart, Baynes, and Morris depening on matchups.

It's possible that, down the road, Brown or Tatum might slide into a bench role, with Morris always starting, but I don't think that will happen for a good long while. Tatum is the team's leading rebounder right now (among guys who have played starter minutes); not starting him might mean that Baynes needs to start to avoid getting killed on the glass. Brown, on the other hand, is the only "big wing" on the Celtics who can long regular minutes at the 2, so if he moves to the bench, Smart - who has yet to show any chemistry with Irving - must start. For now, I think Stevens will have Tatum and Brown start until one of them plays their way to the bench - too much long term benefit to getting them experience to do anything else.

Baynes, I think, fouls too much to be a regular starter, so I think that, except for teams where it makes sense to match him up on a big C, he'll mostly come off the bench. Morris will probably come off the bench at first, which would leave Smart in the starting lineup:

C Horford
F Tatum
F Brown
G Smart
G Irving

Key bench guys, for now (at some point, Smart and Morris may flip):

G Rozier
F Morris
C Baynes

At this point, the 9th bench guy will probably be Shane Larkin, because he can run an offense. That means more small-guard-based lineups than we were used to, with Kyrie getting some minues at SG and Smart and Rozier getting some minutes at forward. That will hurt them defensively but may be necessary for the offense, at least in the early going.

The other guys (Theis, Ojeleye, Bird (2-way), Nader, Yabusele) will get their opportunities based on the needs that come up in particular games. Theis, and then Yabu, will be there when an extra big is needed - which will probably happen pretty frequently. Ojeleye and Bird are 3&D wings - one bigger, one smaller - who will get minutes when that is needed. All three of them are probably ahead of Nader and Yabusele at this point; Nader would play when a wing with more of an offensive game is needed - that's probably less of a consistent need at this point. Yabu just isn't ready for a regular role yet.

That's 14 guys, one more than can dress. The guy who sits will vary between Yabu (not ready/4th big on depth chart), Bird (2 way deal), and Nader (least needed with everyone healthy).

I don't rule out Bird playing his way onto a regular contract at some point, which might put Nader's roster spot in jeopardy if the team tries to add a vet. That's not assured though - with Smart available, Bird might not be needed.
 

tbrown_01923

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 29, 2006
780
I realize this is the "rotation" thread - but with those "other guys" I think I can say I have seen enough to think that at least two of them will "stick" in the association. I thought Bird was a throw away pick, but he might be able to turn into a three and D type player at the smaller wing...
 

chilidawg

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 22, 2015
5,934
Cultural hub of the universe
So far it seems like Brad is getting everyone some playing time so he can see how the combinations might work, and see how the 10-15 guys look against NBA competition. I'd imagine this will continue for 20-30 games, after which we might see more of a defined rotation.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
30,482
So far it seems like Brad is getting everyone some playing time so he can see how the combinations might work, and see how the 10-15 guys look against NBA competition. I'd imagine this will continue for 20-30 games, after which we might see more of a defined rotation.
Agree with this. I am interested in seeing how many NBA players are on the roster right now. I mean you wouldn't normally expect a bunch of second rounders and European signees to be NBA players but Danny does seem to have a track record at identifying NBA talent (e.g., his late first round draft picks plus second round picks like Gomes, Moore, Powell, Nader, and even Lester Hudson bounced around the NBA for a few years before settling in China).

Larkin probably could have stayed in the NBA if he hadn't had chosen Europe so he doesn't really count. But among Semi and Yabu and Bird and Theis and Nader - I will be very interested to see how many of them are able to carve out decent NBA careers.

Speaking of which, I just read that James Young was waived by the Bucks early in October. Anyone know if he playing anywhere - like overseas? What a waste of talent.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,095
So far it seems like Brad is getting everyone some playing time so he can see how the combinations might work, and see how the 10-15 guys look against NBA competition. I'd imagine this will continue for 20-30 games, after which we might see more of a defined rotation.
There certainly will be plenty of opportunities for the rookies to earn minutes and while the combinations will constantly change this year I still expect to see what we have the last two games of using 10 in the first half and 9 in the second barring injuries/foul trouble.
 

JakeRae

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 21, 2005
8,125
New York, NY
There certainly will be plenty of opportunities for the rookies to earn minutes and while the combinations will constantly change this year I still expect to see what we have the last two games of using 10 in the first half and 9 in the second barring injuries/foul trouble.
I wouldn't be surprised if it is closer to 9 and 8 once we are at full health and Stevens figures out the bench a bit better.

If Baynes is playing 20 minutes a night and the rest of the rotation players are around 30, there are only 10 minutes left per game. The norm in the NBA is to have 4 or 5 guys in the low 30s and another group at 15-20 but our current roster makes a lot more sense with a smaller group of 30 mpg players and asking the back of the bench guys to slot in at 5-10 mpg occasionally. Maybe Theis or Larkin works themselves into a consistent 10-15 mpg role, but the other guys really don't have that potential this year. They'll get plenty of minutes, however, whenever there are injuries or if there is foul trouble or on nights where a starter rests.

When the top 8 aren't all healthy, we will likely play a lot deeper to avoid teams adjusting to exploit the weaknesses of the bottom 5 guys.

In terms of who gains the most from the injury, it looks like a battle between Theis and Larkin to establish themselves as 9th man. Tatum and Brown's flexibility means the rotation is fine with either. Theis would push Tatum to the 3 a lot more. Larkin would push Brown to play the 3 more.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
Who loses minutes when Morris comes back? Everyone is playing pretty well. I guess it probably depends on match up but Theis and Semi have been really good. You'd have to think Semi will lose most of the minutes.
 

Eddie Jurak

canderson-lite
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2002
44,474
Melrose, MA
Baynes (135 minutes), Theis (84 minutes), and Yabu (8 minutes) are averaging a combined 33 minutes per game through 7 games.

That may suggest that the Celtics want to limit Horford's minutes at the 5. Or it may suggest that, on the Morris-less bench, Stevens likes Theis and thus plays big more than he would if Morris was healthy.

I would imagine that Aron "All of Australia" Baynes is entrenched as a rotation guy, and that Morris' minutes will come from this group: Theis, Tatum/Brown, Semi, and even Larkin (with Smart getting more backup PG duty). The guys who won't lose time to make room for Morris are Irving, Horford, Baynes, Smart, Rozier, and (in the early going) Tatum/Brown. If Morris works up to being a 30 minutee guy, Tatum and Brown may lose a few minutes. If a Horford/Morris frontcourt is awesome, Theis may be a big loser.

I think Ojeleye will dress for every game and get his minutes on occasions when Brad needs a big wing 1 on 1 defender.
 

RetractableRoof

tolerates intolerance
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 1, 2003
3,836
Quincy, MA
Baynes (135 minutes), Theis (84 minutes), and Yabu (8 minutes) are averaging a combined 33 minutes per game through 7 games.

That may suggest that the Celtics want to limit Horford's minutes at the 5. Or it may suggest that, on the Morris-less bench, Stevens likes Theis and thus plays big more than he would if Morris was healthy.

I would imagine that Aron "All of Australia" Baynes is entrenched as a rotation guy, and that Morris' minutes will come from this group: Theis, Tatum/Brown, Semi, and even Larkin (with Smart getting more backup PG duty). The guys who won't lose time to make room for Morris are Irving, Horford, Baynes, Smart, Rozier, and (in the early going) Tatum/Brown. If Morris works up to being a 30 minutee guy, Tatum and Brown may lose a few minutes. If a Horford/Morris frontcourt is awesome, Theis may be a big loser.

I think Ojeleye will dress for every game and get his minutes on occasions when Brad needs a big wing 1 on 1 defender.
I think if the Celtics were trying to win it all this year, everything you lay out seems perfectly reasonable. If Stevens/Ainge don't believe they can win this year (Hayward is truly done for the year, no miracle playoff comeback), and with the fans are already content/bought in to watch the kids - I see no reason to take back any minutes from a young player that Stevens/Ainge believe is part of the future. It just doesn't make sense, unless it's within the context of creating a winning environment (which I believe in).
 

chilidawg

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 22, 2015
5,934
Cultural hub of the universe
I think if the Celtics were trying to win it all this year, everything you lay out seems perfectly reasonable. If Stevens/Ainge don't believe they can win this year (Hayward is truly done for the year, no miracle playoff comeback), and with the fans are already content/bought in to watch the kids - I see no reason to take back any minutes from a young player that Stevens/Ainge believe is part of the future. It just doesn't make sense, unless it's within the context of creating a winning environment (which I believe in).
I'd like to see someone tell Marcus Smart that the Celtics aren't trying to win it all, or that they have no chance.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
30,482
When Morris comes back, he'll come off the bench so I think Semi's and Tatum's minutes will be hit the most.

Theis will probably see fewer than his 14.6 mpg, which is too bad because he definitely seems like a NBA player and certainly knows how to run the PnR.

Kyrie is leading the team at 34.6 mpg, which is 26th in the league right now.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,095
It's Marcus Smart's job to believe he can win it all. It is the job of Ainge/Stevens to be realistic and plan accordingly.
Planning accordingly would have more to do with looking ahead to cap and tax situations and how to best structure the team for long term success. No player is going to be entering the game for a team that is competing like the Celtics are for the purpose of "getting young players some minutes"........the roster balance may force Brad's hand especially in b2b's in that his entire bench is essentially young players but the those players are going to see less minutes when Morris (and Hayward) return if they aren't the best option to win the game.

 

RetractableRoof

tolerates intolerance
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 1, 2003
3,836
Quincy, MA
Planning accordingly would have more to do with looking ahead to cap and tax situations and how to best structure the team for long term success. No player is going to be entering the game for a team that is competing like the Celtics are for the purpose of "getting young players some minutes"........the roster balance may force Brad's hand especially in b2b's in that his entire bench is essentially young players but the those players are going to see less minutes when Morris (and Hayward) return if they aren't the best option to win the game.

Planning accordingly also has to encompass creating an organizational balance with respect to winning today's game and player development. If nothing else - the playoffs are the time when winning matters. We watched for years as San Antonio managed their roster and sat their best players for rest and to simultaneously develop other players while anticipating the playoffs.

I agree about winning today's game to the extent that they want a winning environment. But one part of Brad's job is player development and growing these players into their max performance - either for direct contribution or as movable assets. It is part of his job. So when situations arise that he might believe are slightly better suited for Morris, but Tatum needs that experience to grow then Morris may not always get the call. And in this 'lost season' where Hayward isn't available, then I think the numbers tip to Brown/Tatum/et al even more so.

If one believes this team has a snowballs chance in hell to viably compete for the title, it would seem to require incredible growth from all the young guys - which is only going to come from reps on the court. So no matter how one slices it, the young guys viewed as part of the future need to not lose minutes to veterans other than to sustain a positive/winning climate with which to develop in.

But again, that is Ainge/Stevens job/concern not the players.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,095
Planning accordingly also has to encompass creating an organizational balance with respect to winning today's game and player development. If nothing else - the playoffs are the time when winning matters. We watched for years as San Antonio managed their roster and sat their best players for rest and to simultaneously develop other players while anticipating the playoffs.

I agree about winning today's game to the extent that they want a winning environment. But one part of Brad's job is player development and growing these players into their max performance - either for direct contribution or as movable assets. It is part of his job. So when situations arise that he might believe are slightly better suited for Morris, but Tatum needs that experience to grow then Morris may not always get the call. And in this 'lost season' where Hayward isn't available, then I think the numbers tip to Brown/Tatum/et al even more so.

If one believes this team has a snowballs chance in hell to viably compete for the title, it would seem to require incredible growth from all the young guys - which is only going to come from reps on the court. So no matter how one slices it, the young guys viewed as part of the future need to not lose minutes to veterans other than to sustain a positive/winning climate with which to develop in.

But again, that is Ainge/Stevens job/concern not the players.
The day when the players recognize a coach is using younger players over the better player for that specific situation for the purpose of development is the day when a coach loses their team. That is FAR different that what Popovich has done with the Spurs. You are suggesting the head coach is going to make substitution patterns that are not optimal for the purpose of winning the game. If this ever does occur and the players catch a sniff of this the teams fight is over. Any team not just the Celtics......players are not going to run through brick walls for a coach who is going to play an inferior player for developmental purposes.

Again, I don't expect....no, I'll say that Brad would NEVER do that with this team for those reasons. That is the surefire way for bad teams to tank.....simply tell them that they aren't playing win the games anymore. This is a non-starter for the Celtics both for the reason stated as well as the fact that there will be plenty of "earned" minutes available for the young players to grab them due to our roster construction placing many of them in significant roles.
 

benhogan

Granite Truther
SoSH Member
Nov 2, 2007
20,111
Santa Monica
yep, believe HRB has it right.

The one thing I did notice that Danny did before the season started, that he confirmed in an interview (and before the Hayward injury) was not bring in a vet for the 15th roster spot. He tried out Thomas Robinson and a few others but decided to give that roster spot and those minutes to the kids. Even after the Hayward injury, there hasn't been a rush to bring in a vet on a min contract (ie Gerald Green). Brad/Ainge are trying to win every night, but they definitely are looking down the road more so than in past seasons.
 

Devizier

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 3, 2000
19,461
Somewhere
99.9% of the time fans want the young guys to get run but complain about coaches not putting them in, those fans are wrong and those young guys are actually not very good.
 

Jimbodandy

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 31, 2006
11,403
around the way
He's a perfect example of the usefulness of the guys that DA brought in for this season. Brad needs to decide what size rotation makes sense, but nobody is really a nightmare out there so far. Certainly the end of the bench seems to be upgraded.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 26, 2005
30,482
Lets keep calling for him to start until HRBs Head actually explodes.
Well, SamRayNot thinks Jordan Bell has gaudy per 36 minute statistics? His are nothing compared to:

13.5-18.0 (.750%) / 9-9 on threes / 9-9 FTs / 4.5 OReb; 4.5 DReb; 45.0 ppg.

The only downsides? 9 TOs and 9 fouls per 36 minutes. Still, you don't mind given his shooting and scoring.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
I always thought Yabu would end up playing a bigger role on the Celtics than Zizic this year, I was right! Not really the way I envisioned it though.
 

RetractableRoof

tolerates intolerance
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 1, 2003
3,836
Quincy, MA
The day when the players recognize a coach is using younger players over the better player for that specific situation for the purpose of development is the day when a coach loses their team. That is FAR different that what Popovich has done with the Spurs. You are suggesting the head coach is going to make substitution patterns that are not optimal for the purpose of winning the game. If this ever does occur and the players catch a sniff of this the teams fight is over. Any team not just the Celtics......players are not going to run through brick walls for a coach who is going to play an inferior player for developmental purposes.

Again, I don't expect....no, I'll say that Brad would NEVER do that with this team for those reasons. That is the surefire way for bad teams to tank.....simply tell them that they aren't playing win the games anymore. This is a non-starter for the Celtics both for the reason stated as well as the fact that there will be plenty of "earned" minutes available for the young players to grab them due to our roster construction placing many of them in significant roles.
So, you've never heard of a manager leaving a starter on the mound to demonstrate confidence in his ability to work out of a jam when the numbers say to pull him for a relief pitcher? That is a sub-optimal substitution (or lack thereof) for development (of confidence I guess). Or when a young kid is brought in from the pen in the 6th, when there is clearly a better choice in the veteran sitting there. I'm not sure I see much difference there.

I guess I'll be content with being of a different opinion then, because on a team with good talent, you could make the argument there is always a better option than a rookie player and they'd never get time on the court - except during garbage time.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
Morris played 18 minutes tonight. The biggest victim was Theis. Semi's been getting more time than Theis the last 3 games, I'm guessing due to positional versatility.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
Looks like Theis is the victim again tonight. Not only that, but they are increasing Semi's minutes, kinda. Rozier is playing a few minutes less too.

This team is really, really high on Semi. Crowder who?

edit: looks like Rozier was actually starting to lose minutes even before Morris came back.
 
Last edited:

Montana Fan

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 18, 2000
8,879
Twin Bridges, Mt.
Looks like Theis is the victim again tonight. Not only that, but they are increasing Semi's minutes, kinda. Rozier is playing a few minutes less too.

This team is really, really high on Semi. Crowder who?

edit: looks like Rozier was actually starting to lose minutes even before Morris came back.
Brad to self, "need to slow Aaron Gordon down, Semi get in there."