How good is Patrice Bergeron?

biff_hardbody

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After last night's Bruins game, I thought to myself "Is Patrice Bergeron a surefire 1st ballot Hall of Fame player?" So I dug into the question a little bit. I came away wondering "Is there an argument that Patrice Bergeron is the best forward of his era?"

Bergeron is currently 101st all time in regular season points (960) and 50th all time in +/- (+241), which is admittedly a raw stat. Consider that Bergeron lost 100+ games to Randy Jones. Active players ahead of Bergeron in points are:

Joe Thornton (1535, 12th all time)
Alexander Ovechkin (1390, 24th)
Sidney Crosby (1381, 25th)
Patrick Marleau (1197, 50th)
Patrick Kane (1153, 56th)
Evgeni Malkin (1128, 60th)
Anze Kopitar (1051, 74th)
Eric Staal (1034, 78th)
Ryan Getzlaf (1013, 89th)
Nicklas Backstrom (1000, 93rd)
Jason Spezza (990, 94th)

Bergeron's +241 is the 3rd best among active players; only Zdeno Chara and Brad Marchand are better among active players. His +/- is better than Crosby (+196) and well ahead of Ovechkin (+83).

Who, of his era, is a better player than Bergeron?

I think it's clear that Crosby is ahead of Bergeron. Begrudgingly, I'd take Ovechkin as well - he is going to be the all time leading goal scorer. That being said, can an argument be made that Bergeron is a better player than Ovechkin? The other player that may be ahead of Bergeron for me is Kopitar - more points, 2 cups, and a similarly great defensive player. Kopitar's greatness is diminished by playing his career in LA. As to the rest of the list, I would take Bergeron. Marleau and Thornton are outliers in that it feels like they are from the era ahead of Bergeron.

The answer to my initial question is that It is safe to say, imo, that Bergeron is a first ballot Hall of Famer. I'm interested to see how others on this board feel about where Bergeron's greatness ranks among his peers.
 
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Saints Rest

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Looking at it another way, where does Bergeron rank in Bruin history?

I think Orr would clearly rank #1. The race for second would be close, with good arguments likely being made for Bourque, Esposito, Bucyk, and Bergeron.

I think I would likely rank them thus:
  1. Orr
  2. Bourque
  3. Espo
  4. Bergy
  5. Bucyk
 

Leather

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I mean, I think he's probably deserving. That said, his #1 similarity per Hockey Reference is Joe Nieuwendyk, who had to wait until his second ballot, just for reference. Depending on who he's sharing a ballot with, that result wouldn't surprise me.
 

Ferm Sheller

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Looking at it another way, where does Bergeron rank in Bruin history?

I think Orr would clearly rank #1. The race for second would be close, with good arguments likely being made for Bourque, Esposito, Bucyk, and Bergeron.

I think I would likely rank them thus:
  1. Orr
  2. Bourque
  3. Espo
  4. Bergy
  5. Bucyk
I know it's difficult to rank players from long ago, but many consider Eddie Shore to be a top 10-15 NHL player of all-time. Dit Clapper's also very highly ranked.
 

biff_hardbody

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Looking at it another way, where does Bergeron rank in Bruin history?

I think Orr would clearly rank #1. The race for second would be close, with good arguments likely being made for Bourque, Esposito, Bucyk, and Bergeron.

I think I would likely rank them thus:
  1. Orr
  2. Bourque
  3. Espo
  4. Bergy
  5. Bucyk
This goes to one of my other favorite thought experiments - Is Bergeron the best center in Bruins history? As you suggest, I think probably not (though I never saw Espo play!).
 

cshea

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One thing that has hurt Bergeron's raw counting numbers is his deployment under Julien. It wasn't until Cassidy took over that Bergeron began being used as an offensive weapon. Julien consistently used him in the dzone against the other teams top lines. It worked to great success, this isn't a knock on Julien, but that hurt Bergeron's raw numbers. That led him to being the most underated player in hockey until analytics became more mainstream and people realized just how fucking good he is.
 

RedOctober3829

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Bergeron is arguably the best 2-way player of this generation. He's always been great defensively and has added offensive prowess over the years. He is one of the best in the faceoff circle that has ever played the game. There's no possible way he is not a 1st ballot HOFer.
 

cshea

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See, that's a perception. He's always been a great offensive player. He hasn't added anything. His points per 60 in recent years is close to identical to his early career numbers. The difference is deployment.
 

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I mean, I think he's probably deserving. That said, his #1 similarity per Hockey Reference is Joe Nieuwendyk, who had to wait until his second ballot, just for reference. Depending on who he's sharing a ballot with, that result wouldn't surprise me.
The Nieuwendyk comparison is an interesting one. I hope it doesn't come down to whoever else is on the ballot with Bergy.

That said, if Nieuwendyk had spent his entire career playing for the Leafs, Habs, or Red Wings, I can't help but think he would've had a better shot getting in on his first ballot. Voters love guys who spent their entire career with one team.

Only three players were selected in Nieuwendyk's first year of eligibility - Dino Ciccarelli, Angela James, and Cammi Granato. That's a PROFOUNDLY odd grouping of inductees - a sex criminal and the first two women ever selected to the Hall. GJGE, voters.
 

Salem's Lot

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Patrice Bergeron, Phil Esposito, and Milt Schmidt are the best Bruins forwards in history. You can make an argument for any of them as better than the other two.

Esposito put up otherworldly offensive numbers, but had the benefit of playing on the first power play with the best player of all time in his prime. This was also an in an era where the league had just doubled in size, and the goalies (and the goaltending equipment) covered much less of the net then they do in the league currently.

I’ve never watched Schmidt play obviously, but according to historians, he was one of the best two way forwards in NHL history. In the History of the Bruins documentary, he is referred to as the “Messier of his era”. It is very difficult to compare him to Bergeron given how different the game is now.

Bergeron will almost assuredly retire as the only 4 time Selke winner with over 1000 points.That alone should get him in the Hall of Fame on the first ballot.
 

biff_hardbody

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Bergeron will almost assuredly retire as the only 4 time Selke winner with over 1000 points. That alone should get him in the Hall of Fame on the first ballot.
I hope this is true, as it (most likely) means Bergeron comes back next year. I believe Bob Gainey is the only other 4 time Selke winner.

Bergeron should win his 5th Selke this year and become the only player to do so.
 

cshea

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He'll be a 5-time Selke winner after this year, unless there is voter fatigue. Far and away the bext xGF% in the league at an unhuman 69.36%. The closest behind him (non-Bruin division, Marchand is 2nd at 65%F) is Auston Matthews at 63.21%. From a defensive perspective, his xGA/60 is 1.59.

They should re-name it the Patrice Bergeron-Cleary Trophy.
 

RedOctober3829

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See, that's a perception. He's always been a great offensive player. He hasn't added anything. His points per 60 in recent years is close to identical to his early career numbers. The difference is deployment.
I don't disagree, but he still had to keep putting those points up in a more favorable system and he has. Credit to him.
 

Ferm Sheller

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I’ve never watched Schmidt play obviously, but according to historians, he was one of the best two way forwards in NHL history. In the History of the Bruins documentary, he is referred to as the “Messier of his era”. It is very difficult to compare him to Bergeron given how different the game is now.
Yes, of course, I should have included Schmidt's name with Shore and Clapper in my post of old-timers above. I knew that there was someone I was missing. IMO, virtually impossible to sort guys from 50, 60, 70, 80, 90 years ago to guys of today.
 

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He'll be a 5-time Selke winner after this year, unless there is voter fatigue. Far and away the bext xGF% in the league at an unhuman 69.36%. The closest behind him (non-Bruin division, Marchand is 2nd at 65%F) is Auston Matthews at 63.21%. From a defensive perspective, his xGA/60 is 1.59.

They should re-name it the Patrice Bergeron-Cleary Trophy.
The bold is my concern. That said, Matthews is currently running away with the Hart, so I like Bergeron's chances.
 

Dummy Hoy

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Everything I'm reading nationally has Bergy as the clearcut Selke winner...I don't see their being enough fatigue to stop the inevitable.

And I wouldn't be so sure about Matthews- his recent run of form certainly makes him a favorite but I've heard quite a bit of support for Shesterkin, to the point where I'm hearing him as a lock.
 

cshea

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The dummies still exist in the PHWA

View: https://twitter.com/jimmathesonnhl/status/1498387591430750213?s=20&t=ePhUmWp-ZQBshxTWugI1rw


And...

https://www.espn.com/nhl/insider/insider/story/_/id/33290579/2021-22-nhl-awards-watch-leading-hart-norris-vezina-selke-calder

Bergeron was listed first on the majority of the ballots for the Selke, despite the best efforts of some voters to find an alternative.

"I feel wrong putting Bergeron again, but his numbers are too good," said one voter.
 
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Dummy Hoy

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I don't disagree (he should probably have 5 already...also I witnessed the nonsense in the 80s with Bourque getting robbed of Norrises) but I think there's an understanding that's he's near the end of the road and he's SO dominant this year that he'll be good.

But agree with both of you- there are some absolute idiots who vote for this shit.
 

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Not Bergeron but in the realm of crazy stats, Ray Bourque finished outside the top 4 of Norris voting three times, finishing 7th in each of the '97, '98, and '00 seasons. He finished the '01 season (his last) 2nd.
 

lexrageorge

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There is no question that Bergeron is deserving of being a first ballot Hall of Famer, to the point that if he doesn't get in they should do a revote. Fortunately, I think that will be unlikely, as, in addition to his Bruins career, he was a key contributor to Team Canada's 2 Olympic gold medals in 2010 and 2014 and in the 2016 tournament, and that will have some weight with voters north of the border.
 

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Everything I'm reading nationally has Bergy as the clearcut Selke winner...I don't see their being enough fatigue to stop the inevitable.

And I wouldn't be so sure about Matthews- his recent run of form certainly makes him a favorite but I've heard quite a bit of support for Shesterkin, to the point where I'm hearing him as a lock.
Shesterkin is clearly more than deserving. But the writers tend to err on the side of skaters.

Err, forwards.
 

Myt1

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You wanna hear something scary? That debut of that movie is closer in time to the end of Shore's career than it is to the present by almost a decade.
Every one of those things fucks with me. Like Tyranosaurus Rex and Cleopatra being closer to us in time than to stegosaurus and the pyramids, respectively.
 

yeahlunchbox

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He'll be a 5-time Selke winner after this year, unless there is voter fatigue. Far and away the bext xGF% in the league at an unhuman 69.36%. The closest behind him (non-Bruin division, Marchand is 2nd at 65%F) is Auston Matthews at 63.21%. From a defensive perspective, his xGA/60 is 1.59.

They should re-name it the Patrice Bergeron-Cleary Trophy.
Does this article about how Bergeron isn't the most deserving of the Selke have any merit?

https://deadspin.com/at-least-know-why-you-re-voting-for-patrice-bergeron-fo-1848806743

I'm kind of a troglodyte when it comes to advanced statistics, so I see your numbers and think well hell, makes sense, that confirms what my eyes tell me. Then I read this and think, well I know the eye test is flawed, maybe I'm not really seeing what I think I'm seeing. Can anyone kind of break down where this article is either more right or more wrong?
 

Silverdude2167

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Does this article about how Bergeron isn't the most deserving of the Selke have any merit?

https://deadspin.com/at-least-know-why-you-re-voting-for-patrice-bergeron-fo-1848806743

I'm kind of a troglodyte when it comes to advanced statistics, so I see your numbers and think well hell, makes sense, that confirms what my eyes tell me. Then I read this and think, well I know the eye test is flawed, maybe I'm not really seeing what I think I'm seeing. Can anyone kind of break down where this article is either more right or more wrong?
Deadspin isn't a real publication any more and cherry picking a few advance metrics as proof that possibly the best defensive forward in the history of the league is not actually worthy of the award, is not a strong argument.

I can't explain why it's wrong, but these two articles from the athletic do a good job of highlighting why he is amazing.

https://theathletic.com/3230454/2022/04/05/nhl-awards-watch-auston-matthews-is-cementing-himself-as-the-hart-trophy-frontrunner/

https://theathletic.com/3249353/2022/04/14/what-makes-a-good-defensive-player-we-asked-players-and-coaches-what-type-of-player-should-win-the-selke-trophy/
 

Cotillion

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From what I'm reading the argument is that a forward must start most of their faceoffs in the defensive zone to show that they are a great defensive forward independent of all the other statistics? How does that make sense?

Now, because this is still Bergeron, and now he’s mostly starting his shifts in the offensive zone, the puck stays there. His metrics are utterly dominant. His Corsi-share, the amount of attempts on net the Bruins get while he’s on the ice vs. the amount they give up, is a league leading 66.0 percent. That leads by three full percentage points! His expected-goals percentage also leads the league 69.6. His Corsi-against per 60 minutes of even-strength time is the lowest in the league too, as is his xGA per 60.
 

Bergs

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From what I'm reading the argument is that a forward must start most of their faceoffs in the defensive zone to show that they are a great defensive forward independent of all the other statistics? How does that make sense?
[narrator] it doesn't [/narrator]
 

cshea

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Let's ignore the countless things wrong in the article and focus on the authors arguemnt about zone starts. The author uses zone starts to argue that Bergeron doesn't have to play defense and thus shouldn't win a defensive award. He advocates for players like Mason Marchment and Marcus Foligno because they have good xGA numbers and start more in the defensive zone than Bergeron does.

Of course, the author just looked at the raw zone start percentage and didn't dig deeper. On a per 60 minute basis at 5x5, Patrice Bergeron starts more shifts in the defensive zone than both Marchment and Foligno.

Patrice Bergeron: 10.34 d zone starts per 60 at 5x5
Marcus Foligno: 9.96 d zone starts per 60 at 5x5
Mason Marchment: 8.56 d zone starts per 60 at 5x5

Also, in 50 games played this season, Selke front runner and defensive stalwart Mason Marchment has played a grand total of 1:27 TOI on the penalty kill. That's total. For the season. One minute and twenty seven seconds.
 

yeahlunchbox

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Thank you all, I really appreciate the replies helping to set me straight. Are there any particularly good websites to give a crash course on advance stats in hockey?
 

cshea

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Alison Lukan is a broadcaster/writer for the Kraken and has an informative series on the Kraken's website. Here's her explainer piece on expected goals. You can search around for other articles in the series, I couldn't find if they are housed in one location. Obviously a lot of it is geared towards the Kraken, but the xG one is a really good explainer so I'm sure the others would be helpful.

At a very high level, a lot of the analytics are pretty simple and just differentials. Shot attempts, shots on goal, scoring chances, high danger chances, goals, etc. The higher the percentage, the better.

Expected goals is a metric where a value is assigned to each shot attempted based on a number of variables such as who is shooting it and where it's coming from and is used to determine shot quality. Pastrnak from the slot is going to have a higher xG value than a Forbort floater from the blue line. On the whole, if you have an xG higher than your opponent on a nightly bases you're going to win more often than you lose.
 

burstnbloom

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There is nothing worse than an article that purports to knock Bergeron down a peg by advanced stats where they misuse everything to come up with their point when if you properly apply context to the advanced numbers, you'd find Bergeron is having the greatest defensive impact in over a decade. What a horrible horrible article that shouldn't have passed an editorial standard. The tweet posting the article is getting rightfully roasted on twitter.
 

BigMike

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Everything I'm reading nationally has Bergy as the clearcut Selke winner...I don't see their being enough fatigue to stop the inevitable.

And I wouldn't be so sure about Matthews- his recent run of form certainly makes him a favorite but I've heard quite a bit of support for Shesterkin, to the point where I'm hearing him as a lock.
How can Shesterkin win an award specifically given to the best defensive Forward, specifically ""to the forward who best excels in the defensive aspects of the game."

Bergeron should already have 6 or 7, so I won't be surprised if they don't give it to him this year.

Is he a first ballot Hall of Famer, yes absolutely. NHL only allows a max of 4 players in a single year, so I guess the only way he could not be a first ballot is if say he , Malkin, Crosby, Chara, Ovechkin, and Thornton all retired this season, which is highly unlikely. otherwise it is possible that he Malkin, Crosby, and Ovechkin all go at once at some point in the future, but hard to envision a 5th player who could potentially be above them
 

Dummy Hoy

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How can Shesterkin win an award specifically given to the best defensive Forward, specifically ""to the forward who best excels in the defensive aspects of the game."

Bergeron should already have 6 or 7, so I won't be surprised if they don't give it to him this year.

Is he a first ballot Hall of Famer, yes absolutely. NHL only allows a max of 4 players in a single year, so I guess the only way he could not be a first ballot is if say he , Malkin, Crosby, Chara, Ovechkin, and Thornton all retired this season, which is highly unlikely. otherwise it is possible that he Malkin, Crosby, and Ovechkin all go at once at some point in the future, but hard to envision a 5th player who could potentially be above them
I was referencing two different awards...Mathews wouldn't be involved in a Selke discussion
 

The B’s Knees

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Barkov, Bergeron, Lindholm have been named Selke Trophy finalists.
It's the 11th straight year that Patrice has been nominated.

Barkov, Bergeron, Lindholm named Selke Trophy finalists

It'll be a 2 horse race, no doubt, between last year's winner Barkov and Bergeron.
Hopefully common sense and data prevail.

"(Bergeron) led the NHL in face-off percentage (61.9 percent; minimum 500 attempts), was first in face-offs won (991), second in face-offs taken (1,600) and third in defensive-zone face-off percentage (59.3 percent)... was third among Bruins forwards in average time on ice per game (18:10), second in shorthanded ice time per game (1:41), second in blocked shots (45) and third in takeaways (37)...Bergeron led the NHL in SAT percentage (65.1 percent, minimum 50 games). "
 

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Since the voters clearly care about weird criteria like “other guys have to win sometimes” I think they will go for Bergy under the supposition that it’s his final season thus being a good narrative.
 

burstnbloom

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That timeline is concerning. I'd be surprised if he made a call to stay until he's pretty deep into his rehab. 10 weeks puts us beyond the draft and free agency opening up.
 

Chainsaw318

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After last night's Bruins game, I thought to myself "Is Patrice Bergeron a surefire 1st ballot Hall of Fame player?" So I dug into the question a little bit. I came away wondering "Is there an argument that Patrice Bergeron is the best forward of his era?"

Bergeron is currently 101st all time in regular season points (960) and 50th all time in +/- (+241), which is admittedly a raw stat. Consider that Bergeron lost 100+ games to Randy Jones. Active players ahead of Bergeron in points are:

Joe Thornton (1535, 12th all time)
Alexander Ovechkin (1390, 24th)
Sidney Crosby (1381, 25th)
Patrick Marleau (1197, 50th)
Patrick Kane (1153, 56th)
Evgeni Malkin (1128, 60th)
Anze Kopitar (1051, 74th)
Eric Staal (1034, 78th)
Ryan Getzlaf (1013, 89th)
Nicklas Backstrom (1000, 93rd)
Jason Spezza (990, 94th)

Bergeron's +241 is the 3rd best among active players; only Zdeno Chara and Brad Marchand are better among active players. His +/- is better than Crosby (+196) and well ahead of Ovechkin (+83).

Who, of his era, is a better player than Bergeron?

I think it's clear that Crosby is ahead of Bergeron. Begrudgingly, I'd take Ovechkin as well - he is going to be the all time leading goal scorer. That being said, can an argument be made that Bergeron is a better player than Ovechkin? The other player that may be ahead of Bergeron for me is Kopitar - more points, 2 cups, and a similarly great defensive player. Kopitar's greatness is diminished by playing his career in LA. As to the rest of the list, I would take Bergeron. Marleau and Thornton are outliers in that it feels like they are from the era ahead of Bergeron.

The answer to my initial question is that It is safe to say, imo, that Bergeron is a first ballot Hall of Famer. I'm interested to see how others on this board feel about where Bergeron's greatness ranks among his peers.
I’ve been thinking about this thread in light of Bergeron’s return this season, what has appeared to be continued great performance, and hitting a couple of milestones at the end of last year and so far this year - 400 goals and 1000 points.

There was a Sportsnet clip, I think that I saw this morning of the celebration of his 1000th point last night and the commentators were making what feels still like an anachronistic point that Bergeron’s rep is defending, but he does have offensive skills.

Bergeron is now 94th all time in NHL points and will jump a few and maybe jumped himself by Stamkos before seasons end.

The OP is right about losing 70+ games early to the concussions, but the other thing that hurts the counting stats is he’s also lost another 125+ games if not more to work stoppages (the 04-05 season was cancelled and another shortened to lockout, and the pandemic shortened season).

That’s not even getting into some of the era and clashing style differences from when he started playing to now, which have seemed to open up scoring. The Goals per game now is almost .5 higher through the last full season than in Bergeron’s first year, and the Claude-era teams feel very different from the past 7-8 years.

I love Bergeron, and think he’s an all timer, but he has such an interesting rep and profile.

It’s a little like arguing about what Ted Williams career stats would have been had he not served in the military - he still all-time elite, but do we still underestimate how crazy his numbers could have been without these outlier events?
 

FL4WL3SS

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You can't help the era for which someone plays and I don't think 200 more games changes the argument around Bergeron.

I do think, though, that playing under heavily defensive first coaches for long periods has slanted the perception, but we don't know what Bergeron would be without it.

Just enjoy the ride and don't worry about what-ifs.
 

Over Guapo Grande

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I will fess up to being a smidge off on Bergeron when he broke into the league. He wasn't a Samsonov or a Kristich in terms of skills.
I was thinking of a constant 4th line grinder.
Marty Lapointe and his family deserve a half-number in the rafters for the way they nurtured Bergy. And it is awesome to see how he is paying it forward.
 

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5 Selke Trophies and 1000 points gets him in the hall of fame on the first ballot. Bob Gainey got in on the first ballot with 4 Selke Trophies and 500 points in a more offensive era.
 

IdiotKicker

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I will fess up to being a smidge off on Bergeron when he broke into the league. He wasn't a Samsonov or a Kristich in terms of skills.
I was thinking of a constant 4th line grinder.
Marty Lapointe and his family deserve a half-number in the rafters for the way they nurtured Bergy. And it is awesome to see how he is paying it forward.
I haven’t thought about Samsonov in awhile, but if there were ever a play born 10 years too early, it was him. He would have absolutely lit it up in todays NHL. He still had a good career, but we might be talking about 1000 points for him instead of ~600 if he’s playing today instead of in the goal vacuum of the late 90s and early 2000s, especially with his skillset.
 

Over Guapo Grande

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I haven’t thought about Samsonov in awhile, but if there were ever a play born 10 years too early, it was him. He would have absolutely lit it up in todays NHL. He still had a good career, but we might be talking about 1000 points for him instead of ~600 if he’s playing today instead of in the goal vacuum of the late 90s and early 2000s, especially with his skillset.
Sammy 10 years later, on the second line with Krech? Get back to me in 3 hours 59 minutes.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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5 Selke Trophies and 1000 points gets him in the hall of fame on the first ballot. Bob Gainey got in on the first ballot with 4 Selke Trophies and 500 points in a more offensive era.
I had SportsHub on this afternoon and Adam Jones (I believe it was him) was ridiculing the idea that Bergeron was a HoFer. “He made three All-Star Games and never won a Hart.”

Adam Jones is a clown, but I don’t think I’ve ever heard a take as dumb as this one.