How Good Do You Think Mac Will Eventually Be?
- Thread starter BigSoxFan
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Feeling a Dalton / Cousins type career. Which I think with the right team around him could mean a ring
There's a pretty significant gap between these outcomes. I think you can win with Cousins, but not with Dalton.
I don't like Pro-Bowls as a metric... you can be real bad and make the Pro-Bowl some years just by 5-7 guys ahead of you dropping out.
I think he'll have between 5 and 10 years as a starter, somewhere between 12th and 20th best starter in the league most of those years. Somewhere on the Hoyer/Cousins Spectrum, but probably more in the Dalton range... good enough that you could win with him if he's cheap, but not so good you aren't always kinda looking to see if you might find someone better.
I think he'll have between 5 and 10 years as a starter, somewhere between 12th and 20th best starter in the league most of those years. Somewhere on the Hoyer/Cousins Spectrum, but probably more in the Dalton range... good enough that you could win with him if he's cheap, but not so good you aren't always kinda looking to see if you might find someone better.
You think so? First 5 years Dalton went 50-26-1, 62.3%, 5.0% TD, 2.9% INT. He was pretty good.
No real idea, although I optimistically voted for a high-range outcome (solid career with a couple Pro Bowls).
My general thoughts are:
- I think many people are too down on him due to perceived athletic limitations.
- At the same time, most of us tend to underestimate the likelihood of any QB busting or just being fairly mediocre. Being good at QB is hard.
- At the same time, team/coaching context is really important to success and if you had to rank 1st round QBs drafted in the last 10-15 years by "team/coaching context favorability index" I think Jones would be pretty close to the very top. Other than Mahomes in KC, maybe Lamar in Baltimore or Goff in LA, I'm not sure who you'd actually have higher. You could imagine a situation in which Jones wasn't really that special, but BB/McD got every ounce of his talent out of him and did a great job putting him in situations where he could succeed, so that he made a few Pro Bowls and had a good run as a perceived upper tier (if not elite) QB.
My general thoughts are:
- I think many people are too down on him due to perceived athletic limitations.
- At the same time, most of us tend to underestimate the likelihood of any QB busting or just being fairly mediocre. Being good at QB is hard.
- At the same time, team/coaching context is really important to success and if you had to rank 1st round QBs drafted in the last 10-15 years by "team/coaching context favorability index" I think Jones would be pretty close to the very top. Other than Mahomes in KC, maybe Lamar in Baltimore or Goff in LA, I'm not sure who you'd actually have higher. You could imagine a situation in which Jones wasn't really that special, but BB/McD got every ounce of his talent out of him and did a great job putting him in situations where he could succeed, so that he made a few Pro Bowls and had a good run as a perceived upper tier (if not elite) QB.
Going a bit further back, I like the Phil Simms comp for Mac. Smart game manager, doesn't turn the ball over, can win and contend with him--perhaps at a high level for 2-3 years.
I'd have Lance higher for sure in terms of situation to succeed (I think it would have been the best spot for any of the QBs including Jones)
The Patriots have good coaching, but pretty mediocre offensive talent. I think SF has significant advantages in play design on offense, and at basically every skill position. I mean is there anyone here who wouldn't trade our WR/TE/RB group for theirs? And anybody who wouldn't rather have Shannahan design the offense and call plays than Josh?
I was just thinking about QBs in prior year drafts but I agree that Lance should rank ahead of him if included, for all the reasons you say. He is in a great spot.
This is a great point--while talent is the largest determinative factor in success, the situation (organization, coaching etc.) is key as well. Even if Fields has substantially more talent than Mac, he is going to a worse environment in most respects, where he will likely be thrown to the wolves in a desperate last-ditch effort by management to win. Does that somewhat level out their chances?
I agree too, I love Fields, but when I saw he went to CHI I winced, same reason I'd be higher on Wilson if he weren't going to the Jets.. organizational and coaching stability can be big. I think NE was a good spot for any of the QBs, and obviously I would have preferred the guy with more tools... in part BECAUSE I trust the coaching staff, and think they could fix his issues and unlock that huge upside, but it also means I think Mac Jones will be an NFL starter now that he's going to be here.
Injuries aside, I think Mac's ceiling is Derek Carr, and floor is Jay Cutler. We could be bitching about his lackadaisical approach, or wooed by his accuracy.
I would guess good enough to get us into the playoffs consistently, but never good enough to carry a team that’s not really strong in other areas. Would not be surprised if he was a 3x pro bowler because he’ll likely have clean, if not overwhelming, counting stats. Real question: will he outlast Belichick?
Not only will he win ten straight Super Bowls while finalizing a cure for AIDS but he will defend all of humanity against the great dragon onslaught of 2046 and 2122.
And his sires? Well that’s another story for another time...
And his sires? Well that’s another story for another time...
This feels right. Jimmy G almost won a Super Bowl, and by all rights probably should have if the Niners D had held up a bit better.
Is it? Carr's been to 3 PBs in 8 seasons; Cutler 1 in 11. Carr's a 64% career passer, with 67% or better his last 3 years. Cutler was a 62% career passer, with only one season at 66%. Carr's record is terrible, but it'd be pretty much impossible to put that on his shoulders. The Raider D has been middling for a very long time. I don't think there's anybody who'd take best season Cutler over best season Carr.
That said though, if it is slim, it's only because I think Mac's going to be unspectacular, but good, for a long time. I don't see him turning into a Bortles or Sanchize.
Mac Jones ceiling is Matt Ryan to me with the current information we have.
Mac Jones has a lot of areas he can improve which I have written about in other threads. Let's say his mechanics and body/athleticism/strength improve. He could have a top year like Matt Ryan on a good team. He could be an pro-bowl caliber QB on a good team. It really depends to me how much he can change to improve some of the reasons why his throws are off and if he takes his strength and conditioning seriously. If you look at their average velocity on a 15 yard throw compared to Trey Lance for example in the time it takes Lance's ball to travel 15 yards Mac's has only gone 13.5. If he can just bolster that up to 14-14.25 and close that gap a little he's going to be fine. He also gains a few MPH because he is one of the best anticipatory throwers. Look, I don't like Brady 2.0s and I wanted the next QB to be more of a sexy dual-threat but Mac Jones could be a very good quality starter who makes multiple pro bowls.
Mac Jones has a lot of areas he can improve which I have written about in other threads. Let's say his mechanics and body/athleticism/strength improve. He could have a top year like Matt Ryan on a good team. He could be an pro-bowl caliber QB on a good team. It really depends to me how much he can change to improve some of the reasons why his throws are off and if he takes his strength and conditioning seriously. If you look at their average velocity on a 15 yard throw compared to Trey Lance for example in the time it takes Lance's ball to travel 15 yards Mac's has only gone 13.5. If he can just bolster that up to 14-14.25 and close that gap a little he's going to be fine. He also gains a few MPH because he is one of the best anticipatory throwers. Look, I don't like Brady 2.0s and I wanted the next QB to be more of a sexy dual-threat but Mac Jones could be a very good quality starter who makes multiple pro bowls.
This article at The Athletic is very, very interesting and gives a great insight into the very determined will of Mr. Mac Jones.
Rivals challenge 2018
That kind of competitive drive and work ethic is off the charts and reminds me of Bird, Brady, Pedro...guys who didn't look the part, but willed themselves to excel.
Rivals challenge 2018
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I think he can be anything from Teddy Bridgewater to Matt Ryan with a Sam Bradford (hopefully with fewer injuries)/Kirk Cousins type career being a reasonable expectation.
What does Mac Jones' success do to the silly "Was it Belichick or Brady" debate? I'm going to go with a Tent Green-esque career which wouldn't add much to it. If Mac Jones succeeds it will be all Belichick, if he flames it was all Brady according to the talking heads 10 years from now
https://www.si.com/nfl/2021/04/22/gameplan-steve-sarkisian-mac-jones-alabama-nfl-special
Sark on Mac. I see some Manning in his game. If you watch some deep cuts of his tape it’s really pretty impressive how ruthlessly smart he is. He consistently makes the right decision over and over ans delivers great balls to all levels of the field. He has some tape where he is unleashing some lasers when he needed to and he moves around the pocket so well.
I’m really high on him. There was a reason Shanahan, belichick and Sean Payton wanted him. They see a guy who does the hard things about the QB position well, consistently. He’ll never have the upside of lance or the other guys because of his athleticism but athletic ability is the least important quality at QB. It matters but not as much as the mental aspects, the ability to lead, carry the culture, and make the right decisions come Sunday. i see a franchise QB as his top outcome. Not Brady but Manning-lite. He’s just so ruthlessly efficient and smart.
Sark on Mac. I see some Manning in his game. If you watch some deep cuts of his tape it’s really pretty impressive how ruthlessly smart he is. He consistently makes the right decision over and over ans delivers great balls to all levels of the field. He has some tape where he is unleashing some lasers when he needed to and he moves around the pocket so well.
I’m really high on him. There was a reason Shanahan, belichick and Sean Payton wanted him. They see a guy who does the hard things about the QB position well, consistently. He’ll never have the upside of lance or the other guys because of his athleticism but athletic ability is the least important quality at QB. It matters but not as much as the mental aspects, the ability to lead, carry the culture, and make the right decisions come Sunday. i see a franchise QB as his top outcome. Not Brady but Manning-lite. He’s just so ruthlessly efficient and smart.