How are you betting the championship weekend?

How are you better this weekend? Choose One AFC one NFC

  • NE-6/Over 50.5

    Votes: 45 51.1%
  • NE-6/Under 50.5

    Votes: 28 31.8%
  • PIT +6/Over 50.5

    Votes: 8 9.1%
  • Pit+6/Under 50.5

    Votes: 5 5.7%
  • ATL -4/ Over 61

    Votes: 31 35.2%
  • ATL -4/Under 61

    Votes: 16 18.2%
  • GB +4/ Over 61

    Votes: 21 23.9%
  • GB +4/ Under 61

    Votes: 11 12.5%

  • Total voters
    88
  • Poll closed .

Marbleheader

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This is the only week I usually put money down aside from the Super Bowl. I took Pats and the over and Atlanta and the under. I like the Pats to win 34-24 and Atlanta 27-20. I think Atlanta and Green Bay slow down a bit trying to keep the other offense off the field and the Pats to make fewer mistakes and take away the big play from the Steelers arsenal. Curious what you other degenerates are leaning towards..
 

Marciano490

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Nov 4, 2007
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Pats -6 + Atl over 61 - parlay. Teasing 6.5 points on NE, ATL and the ATL over.
 

Manuel Aristides

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I know it's dumb but I'm seriously debating taking a small (~$50ish) dollar home run swing and going NE, GB and both overs on a four team.
I never bet the pats (since the first time I did was SB 42...) myself but, FWIW, I do not think this is dumb at all. Only NE/PIT Over 50.5 seems at all risky, but it's easy to imagine envision, and worth the shot if you're talking about a bigass parlay.
 

djbayko

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Jul 18, 2005
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Picks:
NE (-4.5) Full game (got early line)
NE (-3) 1st Half
NE (-1/2) 1st Qtr
ATL (-4)
ATL/GB over 60
Not touching NE/PIT o/u but did include it in a teaser.

ATL over 3.5 TDs
NE/PIT over 3.5 FGs
Ryan or Rodgers to have most passing yards this weekend (-222)

$50 on ATL (+105) over PIT in the Super Bowl
and
$50 on GB (-105) over PIT in the Super Bowl
When the Pats win this weekend, I get my money back.

For fun, small bets on a couple Pats players for SB MVP including Butler at 150/1 and Blount at 50/1. Brady is only something like 1.6/1 so the value just isn't there.

Edit: Added prop bets.
 
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Marciano490

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1.6/1? What're the odds the Pats win the Super Bowl? That seems crazypants.

PP - that's not a bad bet. As others have said, the only thing that worries me is the NE/Pitt over. I'd wait till closer to game time at least, and make sure the weather holds.
 

Ferm Sheller

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I don't know what this means, maybe nothing, but by my count the combined score of the NFC Championship game has been 60+ points only three times going back to 1970 (but one of the times was last year).
 

Koufax

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I picked the under on the Pats. 17 -10 would not surprise me.
 

djbayko

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1.6/1? What're the odds the Pats win the Super Bowl? That seems crazypants.

PP - that's not a bad bet. As others have said, the only thing that worries me is the NE/Pitt over. I'd wait till closer to game time at least, and make sure the weather holds.
Pats to win SB is about 1.2 to 1.4/1 depending on your book. Yes, both numbers are crazy pants. There's always a ton of juice in future bet odds.

I don't know what this means, maybe nothing, but by my count the combined score of the NFC Championship game has been 60+ points only three times going back to 1970 (but one of the times was last year).
Only one other playoff game has ever had an o/u this high (the over won). Extremely low and high Vegas game totals are usually extreme for good reason.
 
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Papelbon's Poutine

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PP - that's not a bad bet. As others have said, the only thing that worries me is the NE/Pitt over. I'd wait till closer to game time at least, and make sure the weather holds.
If I had to rank, that would be the one I'm least confident in, relative to the others, but I'm still pretty confident in it. I am going to wait on the weather and injury reports, but expecting all things kosher there, I don't see Pitt holding us to less than 30 or us holding them to less than 20. I think this is a 34-27 type game Obvious caveat is an in game injury or Brady throwing up another stinker, but you can't plan for those anyway.

It's all good either way, it's house money. I gave up big gambling a while ago but my buddy got a random "here's $10 for the casino, please come back" email from Bovada. He played around with it and turned it into $100 and offered me a half stake. I bought in and we just have fun (he texts me every night right before bed "give me a number' and he places a $2 bet on roulette for each of us - shit like that.

We basically bet the Pats money line for $50 every week and then each get $10 to use on props or whatever you want for national games and Pats games (we bumped up to $25 for the playoffs). We ended up turning it into $1000, cashed out $500 and split it and are back up to about $850 with about $600 in futures out on top of that. I'm going to throw my $50 allowance this weekend on that and he's going to play safer and place some teasers hedge/hopefully win both.

It's just fun, not looking to make real money. We agreed we'd like to have $1k in what we now consider funny money to blow on the Super Bowl and then we are cashing out. I'm fine taking a home run swing with my piece this weekend. I'm not gambling my rent.
 

BigSoxFan

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Am I the only one who doesn't think the Pats cover? 6 points is a lot to cover against a team that could easily win straight up and has an explosive offense.

My lock of the week is to tease Pitt to +12 and the over to 44.5.
 

Marciano490

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Nov 4, 2007
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If I had to rank, that would be the one I'm least confident in, relative to the others, but I'm still pretty confident in it. I am going to wait on the weather and injury reports, but expecting all things kosher there, I don't see Pitt holding us to less than 30 or us holding them to less than 20. I think this is a 34-27 type game Obvious caveat is an in game injury or Brady throwing up another stinker, but you can't plan for those anyway.

It's all good either way, it's house money. I gave up big gambling a while ago but my buddy got a random "here's $10 for the casino, please come back" email from Bovada. He played around with it and turned it into $100 and offered me a half stake. I bought in and we just have fun (he texts me every night right before bed "give me a number' and he places a $2 bet on roulette for each of us - shit like that.

We basically bet the Pats money line for $50 every week and then each get $10 to use on props or whatever you want for national games and Pats games (we bumped up to $25 for the playoffs). We ended up turning it into $1000, cashed out $500 and split it and are back up to about $850 with about $600 in futures out on top of that. I'm going to throw my $50 allowance this weekend on that and he's going to play safer and place some teasers hedge/hopefully win both.

It's just fun, not looking to make real money. We agreed we'd like to have $1k in what we now consider funny money to blow on the Super Bowl and then we are cashing out. I'm fine taking a home run swing with my piece this weekend. I'm not gambling my rent.
You're wise. Every year when I get on one of those 100 into 1000 streaks I spend way too much time contemplating liquidating my 401k and gambling with it, because hey when have I ever got a tenfold return in the market. I don't do it, but I've thought about it for a day or two.
 

djbayko

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BetOnline just released spreads for potential SB matchups:
  • PIT (-1) vs. ATL
  • PIT vs. GB pick 'em
  • NE (-4.5) vs. GB
  • NE (-6) vs. ATL
The bolded bets are -120 (vs. +100 for NE), so those spreads are on the verge of shrinking. Even still, it seems to me that the NFC teams aren't getting the respect they deserve.

Edit: Got the impending line movement backwards.
 
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Rudy's Curve

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BetOnline just released spreads for potential SB matchups:
  • PIT (-1) vs. ATL
  • PIT vs. GB pick 'em
  • NE (-4.5) vs. GB
  • NE (-6) vs. ATL
The bolded bets are -120 (vs. +100 for NE), so those spreads are on the verge of growing even larger. That's surprising. It seems to me that the NFC teams aren't getting the respect they deserve.
-120 means they're on the verge of moving in favor of that team, so in this case it means the lines could be getting smaller. I'm confused as to how NE is a bigger favorite over ATL than GB though.
 

djbayko

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-120 means they're on the verge of moving in favor of that team, so in this case it means the lines could be getting smaller. I'm confused as to how NE is a bigger favorite over ATL than GB though.
Yes, I realized I got that wrong as I was falling asleep. Thanks for the correction.

Edit: And the lines did move overnight...

NE (-3.5) vs. GB
NE (-4) vs. ATL
 
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DJnVa

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-120 means they're on the verge of moving in favor of that team, so in this case it means the lines could be getting smaller. I'm confused as to how NE is a bigger favorite over ATL than GB though.
Seems odd, but maybe there's some "If GB wins, that means Aaron Rodgers likely went off again, and we can't give too many points."
 

weeba

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I'm in 2nd place (7-1) in my playoff pool (pick winner v spread). Was leaning NE and GB, and hope the 8-0 teams all pick either PIT or ATL.
 

Marbleheader

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Interesting results so far, particularly the NFC. How high would the o/u have to be for the numbers to even out and people take the under? 63? 65?
 

TheoShmeo

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Does anyone here ever do the "emotional hedge" bet? My best friend is a Steelers fan and he wants to do a money line bet with me where I take the Steelers and he takes the Pats. That way the loser at least gets a nice pile of cash as a consolation prize. I'm not a better and I don't do fantasy; I'm invested enough with just being a straight up fan. But this has some appeal to me and I have a few other friends who routinely place these kind of bets in big games.

I can see the flip side. Gotta support the team and all that.
 

DJnVa

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I had "free bet" from an online place before, and I dumped it on the moneyline in game the Pats were favored and lost (at Denver a few years back), so I won a little.

Since it was a free bet, I wasn't really out any money. Put an amount that doesn't really bother you (and won't and at least it's something. Throwing $100 on Pittsburgh brings you a shade under $200 if they win. It's some emotional salve and if NE wins you're happy anyway.
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
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Jul 20, 2009
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Does anyone here ever do the "emotional hedge" bet? My best friend is a Steelers fan and he wants to do a money line bet with me where I take the Steelers and he takes the Pats. That way the loser at least gets a nice pile of cash as a consolation prize. I'm not a better and I don't do fantasy; I'm invested enough with just being a straight up fan. But this has some appeal to me and I have a few other friends who routinely place these kind of bets in big games.

I can see the flip side. Gotta support the team and all that.
When the Pats were down 24-14 against the Seahawks in the Super Bowl I made an emotional bet with my friend watching with me. If the Pats came back and won I'd pay him $20. If the Seahawks held onto their 10 point lead which they were going to do because that defense is so good I'd pocket $10. I had gone full time to finish up some classes in grad school that semester so any money was welcome. Best $20 I ever lost. For me at the time that kind of money made it exciting. We ended up combining our money, going to the liquor store and celebrating the win with a small bottle of nice whiskey. I read somewhere once that Bill Gates likes to play $1-$2 limit poker. If the money makes it interesting to you or you feel better about losing that way do it. You win either way.
 

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

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Does anyone here ever do the "emotional hedge" bet? My best friend is a Steelers fan and he wants to do a money line bet with me where I take the Steelers and he takes the Pats. That way the loser at least gets a nice pile of cash as a consolation prize. I'm not a better and I don't do fantasy; I'm invested enough with just being a straight up fan. But this has some appeal to me and I have a few other friends who routinely place these kind of bets in big games.

I can see the flip side. Gotta support the team and all that.
No. You can't do this. While, admittedly, the Eagles covering the spread in the SB against the Pats won me a really nice chunk of change, which I converted into some nice shiny objects, it is not at all an emotional offset. It is almost like two completely unique things going on in parallel. You don't wake up and think "Hey, at least I have that big chunk of money coming in!" You wake up and you are equally miserable. Then a few days later you get cash, it feels kind of dirty, but over time it feels good in the same way that finding out that some options you thought had expired are actually still alive and in the black is.

To bet against your team is heresy. Guys who gamble like degenerates will tell you that you have to be willing to bet against your team. This is bullshit. Don't bet against your team.
 

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

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I am playing both unders this weekend simply because all the money seems to be flowing in on the overs. I also have bet the lines on the Pats and the Falcons. We'll see. You can make a strong case for and against every team this weekend, it should be entertaining.

For those folks who hate Roger Goodell and rejoice in the league's failures, this is going to be a rough weekend and an even rougher SB as the closest thing to a non-marquee matchup would be NE-ATL, which would still deliver dynamite ratings. PIT-GB might actually break records.
 

Marciano490

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I am playing both unders this weekend simply because all the money seems to be flowing in on the overs. I also have bet the lines on the Pats and the Falcons. We'll see. You can make a strong case for and against every team this weekend, it should be entertaining.

For those folks who hate Roger Goodell and rejoice in the league's failures, this is going to be a rough weekend and an even rougher SB as the closest thing to a non-marquee matchup would be NE-ATL, which would still deliver dynamite ratings. PIT-GB might actually break records.
So you think the money is raising the overs too high or you just like being contrarian? I'm waiting till I know the game day weather to touch the Pats o/u.
 

SMU_Sox

queer eye for the next pats guy
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I am playing both unders this weekend simply because all the money seems to be flowing in on the overs. I also have bet the lines on the Pats and the Falcons. We'll see. You can make a strong case for and against every team this weekend, it should be entertaining.

For those folks who hate Roger Goodell and rejoice in the league's failures, this is going to be a rough weekend and an even rougher SB as the closest thing to a non-marquee matchup would be NE-ATL, which would still deliver dynamite ratings. PIT-GB might actually break records.
Teasing the over in ATL-GB seems like free money so of course the Falcons will win 28-24. I'd take a 2 play teaser +6 or 6.5 depending on the site. GB +10, and GB-ATL over. I toyed with making it a 3 play and adding the Pats but I can't pull the trigger because I am irrationally terrified of the Steelers. I will put money on the Pats if they get to the SB as I think their D is better than both GB's and ATL's.
 

Super Nomario

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Case for the unders: when you have two great offenses / bad defenses, you often end up with a "short" game because neither defense can get off the field on 3rd down. When Green Bay and Atlanta played earlier this season, each team got only 9 possessions - that's a small number. Granted, each scored 30+ anyway, but it wouldn't be hard to imagine like a 27-21 game where both offenses are highly efficient. The O/D splits in Pitt / NE aren't as dramatic, but that also looks like a game that won't have a ton of drives because Pitt runs a lot, Pats play bend-but-don't-break D, and NE's O is possession-heavy.
 

johnmd20

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I can definitely see the Pats game going under, but I'd be shocked if the Atlanta game went under, too. Maybe another wager in the offing?
Yes, whatever you want. What's the number? 60.5? 61? I just like the under here b/c of the contrarian aspect. 61 is a lot of points for an NFL game.
 

Rick Burlesons Yam Bag

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So you think the money is raising the overs too high or you just like being contrarian? I'm waiting till I know the game day weather to touch the Pats o/u.
In this particular case it is a contrarian view. EVERYONE seems to be hopping on the overs, and the overs are pretty high. It always seems for weekends like this when everyone and their mom is taking one side, the other side is the other place to be. Which is weird, because usually I prefer being with the moms, you know?
 

Marciano490

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In this particular case it is a contrarian view. EVERYONE seems to be hopping on the overs, and the overs are pretty high. It always seems for weekends like this when everyone and their mom is taking one side, the other side is the other place to be. Which is weird, because usually I prefer being with the moms, you know?
When they lose their money betting the overs and see you flush with your winnings, they'll come crawling back.
 

tims4wins

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Not a gambler but I think the Atlanta line is way too low. GB is seriously banged up across the board. The line is what it is because the public is backing Rodgers and "afraid" of him, but I think Atlanta is just too good and deep on offense. I see them running away from GB in this one and winning comfortably.
 

djbayko

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No. You can't do this. While, admittedly, the Eagles covering the spread in the SB against the Pats won me a really nice chunk of change, which I converted into some nice shiny objects, it is not at all an emotional offset. It is almost like two completely unique things going on in parallel. You don't wake up and think "Hey, at least I have that big chunk of money coming in!" You wake up and you are equally miserable. Then a few days later you get cash, it feels kind of dirty, but over time it feels good in the same way that finding out that some options you thought had expired are actually still alive and in the black is.

To bet against your team is heresy. Guys who gamble like degenerates will tell you that you have to be willing to bet against your team. This is bullshit. Don't bet against your team.
This. The money won't make you feel better about the outcome. And if the Pats win, you threw away $100 for nothing.

Also, if you don't like your team's chances to win or against the spread, then don't bet on the game.
 

djbayko

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Not a gambler but I think the Atlanta line is way too low. GB is seriously banged up across the board. The line is what it is because the public is backing Rodgers and "afraid" of him, but I think Atlanta is just too good and deep on offense. I see them running away from GB in this one and winning comfortably.
ATL over 3.5 TDs is a bet I'm thinking of adding to my list today.
 

Marciano490

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GB is suiting up Boyd Dowler and checking Milwaukee dive bars searching for Max McGee. The under is looking better in that game.
I think Atlanta gets to 40-something on its own Rodgers is good for a couple TDs and some FGs.
 

Soxy

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Not a gambler but I think the Atlanta line is way too low. GB is seriously banged up across the board. The line is what it is because the public is backing Rodgers and "afraid" of him, but I think Atlanta is just too good and deep on offense. I see them running away from GB in this one and winning comfortably.
This is exactly where I'm at. I think Atlanta -4 is the best bet of the weekend. I haven't gambled on football in probably like 10-15 years but I would throw some money on Atlanta if I knew a guy. The only real arguments against Atlanta are Aaron Rodgers and the fact that Atlanta doesn't have the pedigree of the other teams left in the tournament. That's really it.

Matt Ryan has probably been the MVP this season and Atlanta has better talent across the board at almost every other position. Green Bay is so beat up that Mike McCarthy came out and said that his main focus this week was on getting healthy. That's definitely not where you want to be at this time of year. I don't think this game is going to be close. Mainly because I don't think Atlanta will spot Green Bay a 21-3 lead like Dallas did. If anything, I think Atlanta will turn the screws on Green Bay and put the pressure on them to have to comeback against a superior opponent in a hostile environment. Green Bay could blitz the shit out of Ryan and force some pressure and turnovers. I think that's their only chance of slowing down the Falcons' offense. That strategy could just as easily blow up in their face. I think Atlanta wins by 2-3 touchdowns.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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I know it's dumb but I'm seriously debating taking a small (~$50ish) dollar home run swing and going NE, GB and both overs on a four team.
Not dumb at all. GB/ATL total points will be very close to that number and GB will cover. Pats will win by a TD or more if history has any bearing on the game.
 

ethangl

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The NFCCG line is ATL -5.5 (or even -6) now.

It just seems like a very poor use of money to me – there's a first time for everything, but Rodgers doesn't lose games that matter to bad defenses, and you want to give him 6 points? Okie dokie.

Case for the unders: when you have two great offenses / bad defenses, you often end up with a "short" game because neither defense can get off the field on 3rd down. When Green Bay and Atlanta played earlier this season, each team got only 9 possessions - that's a small number.
And two of those were <30 second end-of-half "drives" for Green Bay (although one did end in a FG because Rodgers), and one was a kneel-down for Atlanta.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Not dumb at all. GB/ATL total points will be very close to that number and GB will cover. Pats will win by a TD or more if history has any bearing on the game.
In truth, I meant more about four team parlays being dumb. I like each leg individually, but the more games you bring into the mix...

Like I said earlier, playing with house money. Fuck it.
 

Rudy's Curve

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The NFCCG line is ATL -5.5 (or even -6) now.

It just seems like a very poor use of money to me – there's a first time for everything, but Rodgers doesn't lose games that matter to bad defenses, and you want to give him 6 points? Okie dokie.
The 2011 Giants gave up 400 points. The 2009 Cardinals were also a below-average defensive team, although it certainly wasn't his fault they lost. He did play poorly in the Giants game though, especially in a season where he was MVP.
 
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ethangl

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The 2011 Giants gave up 400 points. The 2009 Cardinals were also a below-average defensive team, although it certainly wasn't his fault they lost. He did play poorly in the Giants game though, especially in a season where he was MVP.
The Cardinals were 11th in DVOA, 10th in adjusted sack rate.

(that's another point, look at the adjusted sack rate of the teams that have beaten Rodgers, then look at Atlanta)

I find it humorous that anybody, on Sosh of all places, would suggest that NY had not become an excellent defense by the end of 2011.
 

Rudy's Curve

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The Cardinals were 11th in DVOA, 10th in adjusted sack rate.

(that's another point, look at the adjusted sack rate of the teams that have beaten Rodgers, then look at Atlanta)

I find it humorous that anybody, on Sosh of all places, would suggest that NY had not become an excellent defense by the end of 2011.
I was just going by DSRS since DVOA is a black box (and Schatz sucks, but that's for another day I guess). As for the Giants, they played very well the last two games and in the playoffs but facing a defense that allowed 400 points is about as good as you're going to get in the playoffs - there generally aren't many bad defenses there that are playing bad. And regarding games that matter, what about the home losses to the Lions and Bears last year that cost them the division?

I'm not a Pats fan and generally a staunch Rodgers defender. I'm just saying he's had some bad games too.
 
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tims4wins

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Rodgers is 5-4 on the road in the playoffs in his career. That is pretty good overall. But if I am betting the Falcons, it's not a bet against Rodgers so much as a bet against Green Bay's health, and defense. I can't see Atlanta spotting GB a multi score lead like Dallas did last week, their offense is too good to not score most possessions against GB's D. I have said all week I think this game ends up a comfortable Atlanta win so I won't harp on it any more.

Edit: Rodgers has 19 TD to 8 INT on the road in his playoff career. Those are pretty good numbers compared to most QBs. But he has 14 TD to 1 INT at home in his playoff career. Again, he has been good on the road, but not otherworldly.