Houston: Turn Down for Watt

[jsinger121]

Who knows. There is going to be massive turnover before FA is done league wide. Some trades, the draft, and most notably, dozens and dozens of really good players getting cut for cap reasons. The Patriots may well have a really good roster by the time Watt is deciding.

I think the likelihood the patriots have a really good roster in the next few months is probably low. It all starts and ends with the QB. Players want to know who they have under center leading them. Without a legit QB in place or a QB that gives hope why would anyone come to New England unless they backed up the Brinks truck. And BB isn’t the reason people will come especially not without a QB here.

 

[Cellar-Door]

I think the likelihood the patriots have a really good roster in the next few months is probably low. It all starts and ends with the QB. Players want to know who they have under center leading them. Without a legit QB in place or a QB that gives hope why would anyone come to New England unless they backed up the Brinks truck. And BB isn’t the reason people will come especially not without a QB here.

I think it will definitely depend what they do at QB in part, but at the same time.... this team went 7-9 with Cam and is going to add a lot of talent. They don't need a Watson trade to be attractive, given how many guys even vets sign with teams with mediocre QBs, I think people are really undervaluing the Patriots' ability to get signings. Watt is maybe a stretch, but who knows.

Overall though, it's clear that the perception of the Patriots' current and likely start of season talent on this board is miles off of what the league and even league writers think about them.

 

[E5 Yaz]

As long as we're guessing at Watt's motivations, I'll guess that he'll want a legit title chance over, say, playing on the same team with his brother or same city where his wife plays. In fact the QB uncertainty in Pittsburgh (where Ben looked shaky as the year progressed) and especially Chicago might eliminate the Steelers and Bears immediately.

Green Bay makes some sense to me, given the Wisconsin roots, and as has been said Baltimore and Buffalo seem possible. I don't know their cap status, but joining the Rams would be scary, in that it would take some heat off Donald. Watt has dabbled a bit with Hollywood.

I just don't see him, at this stage of his career, joining a team without stability at QB and trusting a new organization to fix it.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

Steelers with both of his brothers. I would wager he’s willing to take a little less money to play on a team with a legit chance and a very good defense and play with his brothers.

Makes a ton of sense.

My first thought was exactly this. Very good defense, an offense that can score. If Watt signs there, probably easier to replace Pouncey too.

Not to be snarky - because I've already had multiple friends say the same thing - but the Steelers are currently $30 million OVER the cap. Now, they're going to be able to trim salary with a Big Ben restructure (currently counting $40m towards cap). But even if they get his salary down to $20m - which is a borderline joke number for a starting QB with his history - they''re still $10m over the cap. With Pouncey retiring, they drop to about $5m under the cap.

Then you have to add another $8m or so for draft picks. So they're now sitting $3m over the cap.

Now consider that they have 9 players that are free agents that played 45%+ snaps. That includes their starting LT (Villaneuva), starting RT (Feiler), 2nd best edge rusher behind Watt (Dupree), Juju Smith Schuster, a solid 3-4 ILB in Avery WIlliamson, their starting RB (James Connor), and a few other ancillary pieces playing borderline starter level snaps. And they also have to replace Pouncey, since he's retiring. I mean, you're talking $60-70m dollars in combined salary just for these guys alone.

In other words, unless Watt is planning on taking a league minimum deal to play with his brother - and he'd be a fool if he did - I can't see any way JJ goes to Pittsburgh.

 

[lexrageorge]

I think some people are underestimating the amount of potential player movement this offseason, and how that could benefit the Pats. The Steelers, Chiefs, Raiders, Eagles, Rams, Falcons, Packers, and Saints all have a significant cap crunch heading into the season, and some of those will not be easily correctable. The Pats have the 4th most at $68M; the 5th place team (Bengals) has $23M less to spend.

Watt is probably not coming to NE, but I would not rule out the Pats making a big splash in free agency this offseason.

 

[ehaz]

Watch him go to Tampa for much less money than he was going to make in Houston to replace Suh.

I was thinking the same thing except to replace Barrett since he reportedly wants the brinks truck.

Even 2/$25 would be less of cap hit than what Barrett played under the franchise tag last season. After a few restructurings, you’d still have plenty to bring back Gronk, Suh, AB at least. Possibly David or Godwin depending on their willingness to stay. (Maybe David’s easier because he’s already had his big payday).

 

[Phil Plantier]

One heuristic about the Pats' interest: how well did the player play against the Pats, and/or did the Pats do anything special to stop them? I don't remember Watt causing many problems for the Pats, but maybe the results are messing with my memories.

Phil Perry was going down the list of free agents signed in 2017, and I think we'll get an influx like that: Lawrence Guy, Alan Branch, Rex Burkhead, etc.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

True, but he’s a Hall of Fame player who can play in any defensive scheme. Aaron Donald did not destroy the Patriots in the SB, but Bill would acquire him in an instant.

 

[Kliq]

I'm trying to think of a All-Pro pass rusher who ever just destroyed the Patriots under BB. Jason Taylor, but that was a long time ago, maybe Suggs?

 

[Morgan's Magic Snowplow]

I'm trying to think of a All-Pro pass rusher who ever just destroyed the Patriots under BB. Jason Taylor, but that was a long time ago, maybe Suggs?

Von Miller had a couple huge games against us, including the 2015 AFC Championship game.

 

[Kliq]

Von Miller had a couple huge games against us, including the 2015 AFC Championship game.

Ah yes; Brady has certainly been knocked around before, but typically BB is very good at neutralizing the best pass-rusher of the other team. Like Mario Williams would do nothing against the Pats but Jerry Hughes would have a big game. In the Super Bowl against Atlanta Vic Beasely was contained but Grady Jarrett nearly won the SB MVP.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I always seemed to think we handled Freeney well and the numbers back it up. Only 3 sacks in 11 games against the Pats in his career.

 

[koufax32]

I'm trying to think of a All-Pro pass rusher who ever just destroyed the Patriots under BB. Jason Taylor, but that was a long time ago, maybe Suggs?

Not a pass rusher in the strict sense of lining up outside the tackle ala Freeney, etc, but Haloti Ngata was a serious thorn in their side.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

I'm trying to think of a All-Pro pass rusher who ever just destroyed the Patriots under BB. Jason Taylor, but that was a long time ago, maybe Suggs?

Taylor and Miller are great examples.

Michael Bennett went sackless in the game, but if you rewatch the game he was having his way with the Pats OL in SB49 until late. Avril leaving the game in the fourth quarter let them hedge more protection to Bennett, is my recollection.

Shaun Ellis had 14 sacks against the Pats in 22 career games, and I definitely remember 2 of them in the 2010 AFCD game. Aaron Schobel had 12 sacks in 16 games, including a couple 2 sack games in 2001.

 

[Cellar-Door]

One heuristic about the Pats' interest: how well did the player play against the Pats, and/or did the Pats do anything special to stop them? I don't remember Watt causing many problems for the Pats, but maybe the results are messing with my memories.

Phil Perry was going down the list of free agents signed in 2017, and I think we'll get an influx like that: Lawrence Guy, Alan Branch, Rex Burkhead, etc.

WAtt:
7 Games, 0 Sacks, 24 TKLS (19 solo) 5 TFL, 12 QB hits, 4 PD, 1 FF.

 

[tims4wins]

Michael Bennett had one of the single most disruptive games against the Pats I can ever remember. The sad part was that they knew they had to block 72, and they simply couldn't.

 

[RIrooter09]

Justin Tuck had four sacks between the two Super Bowls. Schobel is a good one.

 

[67YAZ]

JJ’s clearly made up his mind.

 

[Valek123]

JJ’s clearly made up his mind.

Bears? Weird choice no?

 

[Ferm Sheller]

He grew up not too far north of Chicago.

 

[67YAZ]

His wife played for the Chicago Red Stars. But Bears fans are taking this as a sign. To be fair, it’s a lot more exciting than Carson Wentz.

 

[DJnVa]

Got push notification that he's considering the Browns.

 

[bakahump]

GB seems like a good guess. Home State, Competitive, very close to Chicago. Not sure of their cap though.