I'm not a Rockets fan, but after watching (and now re-watching) the Cup game vs GS last night, I can see why so many other posters here are excited about them. Here's my amateurish scouting report / team primer, just to kick off some discussion. I'm very willing to get corrected on my impressions here by people who've watched more Rockets this season.
Overall, Houston seems to really need outside shooting, or for their young guns to develop some, because right now you could dare just about everyone besides Brooks and FVV to shoot and pack the paint - which is what GSW did last night as they came back in the second half and almost won. There have been Jimmy Butler trade ideas, and they could certainly use someone able to score in volume the way he can, but I'm also not sure whether he'd mess up their defensive chemistry too much to be worth it.
DARKO:
I haven't found any good videos that break down how Houston is doing it - Timpf and Ben Taylor can't be far behind on them though - but they're 15-7 and threatening to be a top seed in the West, despite looking a bit smoke-and-mirrors on offense at times. So we best keep tabs on them.
- Coach Ime Udoka clearly has them playing intense and focused defense. They're all young, hungry players who scramble around, contest everything and don't lose their guy, and this will absolutely mess up bad teams and decrease the margin of error even for the best teams. They went 41-41 last year with some promising signs and much inconsistency, but returned basically the entire rotation, much like Boston did.
- In particular they're all great at group-rebounding. They don't have a single board monster, they have a bunch of guys with great timing and a great sense for where to tip it to. Not for nothing are they #1 at ORB% at 33.7% (Boston: 20th, 26.3%). I typed this before even looking up the stats - the rebounding jumps off the screen at you.
- They're led on-court by two veterans: PG Fred VanVleet (30yo, $43M, $45M team option next year), who is usually a good outside shooter but is down to 31.6% on 3s this year, and SG Dillon Brooks (28yo, $22M, 2 yrs left), a defensive stopper / Smart-like figure for them who came over from Memphis 2 years ago in a very complicated-sounding trade. Brooks makes energy D plays when he's on, but he can also be reckless with the ball on offense; that said, he's hitting 38% of his 3s this year (career: 35%), at volume, so they do need his shooting.
- The only other real veterans who play for them, or would, are PG Aaron Holiday (28yo, $4.6M, team option next season), and C Steven Adams (31yo, $12.6M this year), who had a year-long recovery from surgery over a year ago, played in preseason, and then was "day-to-day" for opening night and hasn't been seen since. Based on what I saw, they really need some beef in there at times, and Steven Adams is undoubtedly all-beef. Old friend 38yo PF Jeff Green is somehow still on the books for $8M there this season, and has gotten on court for a bit of garbage time, but seems to mostly be there for the vibes and campfire stories.
- Instead, the fire on this team is entirely around their young collection of wings and wing-ish players, and 22yo 6'11 C Alperen Sengun, who they just gave a sub-max rookie extension to (kicks in next year, at 22% of cap, $34M, declines to 19% of cap by 4th year). Because those wings are all recent draftees, and VanVleet will come off the books in 2 years, the team has an incredible amount of payroll flexibility - they are 25th in payroll this year, well under the tax.
- Sengun looks to have great positioning on defense, knows when and how to help, is surprisingly agile for his size (not to a Wemby level but but on offense he is very loose with the ball. Seems to lack patience, and precision with post moves - except for his turnaround jumper, which looks pretty solid out to 10-15' or so. Passing decisions look just OK, seems to get tunnel vision a bit.
- Now for the Young Guns: 2nd on the team in MPG behind FVV is SG Jalen Green (6'4 22yo, 4th-year player, #2 overall in 2021), who just got a 3-year extension just shy of Sengun's that also kicks in next year. He hasn't bulked up much, but he's a 3-level scorer, chucking up 7.7 3s per game while making 32% (career 34%). He drew the decisive foul that won the Cup knockout game last night after laying out to get a loose ball, and then knocked down the clutch FTs (something he leads the team in). Looks very assured with the ball in his hands, but also leads the team in turnovers / game by some distance. Offensively I'd say he still looks well short of a finished product, but he's a very willing screener and back-cutter, and puts effort into every play.
- Up next for an extension is stretch-big PF Jabari Smith Jr (6'11 21yo, 3rd-year player, #3 overall in 2022 out of Auburn, $9.8M this year, $12.4M next, extension eligible this offseason). Has a bit of Al Horford in his game - can shoot the 3 (35% this year, 36% last year), score decently in the post, and is extremely switchable on D. Other than Curry, there didn't appear to be anyone on GSW that he couldn't guard. They play him alongside Sengun in a double-big lineup a fair amount, and his offensive game is mostly a slashing / driving one (but he will also sit on the perimeter and shoot over the closeout). Active hands for a big man, and has been very ball-secure (5.8% TOV% in 15% USG). Looks like a future all-star.
- Then there's Port Cellar favorite PF Tari Eason (6'8 23yo, 3rd-year player, #17 pick in 2022 out of LSU, $3.7M this year, $5.7M next), a prototypical two-way wing. Can't hit the 3 and rarely tries, but a great back-cutter / clean-up / rebound guy on offense and has some finesse around the basket. Reliable 1v1 defender with incredibly itchy hands - 2.0 steals / game, tied for 3rd in the league behind Dyson Daniels and Doncic. Gave Podz and Moody hell on the perimeter last night, holding up on every switch.
- Yet another top pick, SF Amen Thompson (6'7 21yo, 2nd-year player, #4 pick in 2023 out of Overtime Elite, $9.3M this year then $9.7, $12.3) also is adding value out there. I think he got the block on the last-second desperation attempt to end the GSW game. Rotates furiously on D, recognizes where he needs to be very quickly. More of a rim player on offense, from what I can tell, but DARKO looks him most out of all the young'uns.
- Finally I need to mention PG Reed Sheppard (6'2 20yo, rookie, #3 pick this spring out of Kentucky, rookie-scale contract of course at $10.1M this year), who is clearly being groomed to take over PG once VanVleet's contract expires. He hasn't played much, 12 MPG so far - didn't even see the floor last night - but they really need someone to develop as a distributor and outside shooter, and he he 52% of his 3s in his one-and-done year at UK (not a misprint - 75 for 144), and made 83% at the line, so he's got the profile of someone who can get there.
Overall, Houston seems to really need outside shooting, or for their young guns to develop some, because right now you could dare just about everyone besides Brooks and FVV to shoot and pack the paint - which is what GSW did last night as they came back in the second half and almost won. There have been Jimmy Butler trade ideas, and they could certainly use someone able to score in volume the way he can, but I'm also not sure whether he'd mess up their defensive chemistry too much to be worth it.
DARKO:
I haven't found any good videos that break down how Houston is doing it - Timpf and Ben Taylor can't be far behind on them though - but they're 15-7 and threatening to be a top seed in the West, despite looking a bit smoke-and-mirrors on offense at times. So we best keep tabs on them.
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