Hot Stove Wishes

[TomRicardo]

I really don't understand the McCann love.  He is expensive and starting to break down already.
 
He is a great player but you are going to have to give him a bad contract and lose a draft pick.
 
We just won the World Series, this isn't the time to make a big flashy move.  

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I think the Sox are going to stand pat at the majority of positions.
 
I think Napoli stays, assuming that they can come up with a creative Napoli deal of the kind Drek717 suggested, something that amounts to more or less 3/40 but has escape hatches built in in case the hip explodes.
 
I think they'll make an effort to keep Ellsbury, but somebody, probably Seattle or Texas, will outbid them. I think Drew will end up with the Mets. I think we'll take a long look at McCann, and I wouldn't be shocked if we go there, but I suspect that the price difference between him and Salty will prove excessive and we'll stick with the devil we know at the less exorbitant price, probably around 4/40.
 
I think the most interesting decisions on the position player side are going to come at two positions: the fate of the LF platoon, and who will be the UIF.
 
If, as I expect, Ellsbury goes and JBJ takes his place, then the Sox will have CF manned by a rookie with only one backup: Victorino, who looked wobbly there this year. In that circumstance, the offense-only nature of the LF platoon looks like a particular weakness. So I suspect the Sox will try to replace either Gomes or Nava with a more defensive-minded guy who can credibly cover CF in a pinch. Maybe Gutierrez, or (if the Rays don't exercise his option) David DeJesus.
 
I can't see them signing Choo. Yes, he's significantly better than Nava, but as with McCann (only much more so), his extra cost will far outweigh his extra value. MLBTR is projecting him to get 6/100. That's crazy for a poor defender who can't hit LHP. Choo the player I like, with reservations; Choo the 2014 free agent looks like a bad mistake waiting to happen. Let it be somebody else's.
 
If Drew leaves, the presumptive UIF is Brock Holt, who certainly did nothing this year to suggest that he's up to the job. The Sox might try to sign a veteran of the Bloomquist/Barmes type to fill that slot, or just bring back McDonald.
 
So I'm seeing the lineup next year as:
 
Bradley cf
Victorino rf
Pedroia 2b
Ortiz dh
Napoli 1b
? (probably Nava) lf
Bogaerts ss
Salty c
WMB 3b
 
with a bench of Ross, Carp, ? (probably Gomes, LF platoon partner) and ? (UIF).
 
If they do replace Salty with McCann he probably bats 6th, moving the LF platoon down to 8th.

 

[ivanvamp]

 
We've seen a full year's worth of play from him, which has included both blazing hot streaks and horrible slumps. The sum total is that so far, he's a thoroughly ordinary player. Not bad, just ordinary. If Drew doesn't take the QO, he's our best option at third and we should just go with him and hope he takes a step forward. But if Drew does take the QO, then shopping him is certainly one of the options you look at. There are other options--make him a corner IF/OF bench player, platoon him with Carp at first if Napoli doesn't come back (though I think I'd rather see Hassan in that role), or even send him to AAA again (though there might be a logjam there with Cecchini before the year's over). But they should certainly float him on the trade market and see what he fetches.

 
Yep.  Middlebrooks has played 169 regular season games.  From his b-ref page, here are his 162-game numbers:
 
.254/.294/.462/.756, 590 ab, 31 2b, 0 3b, 31 hr, 99 rbi, 102 ops+
 
The "ordinary" part of it is his ops+, the "below average" part of it is his obp, and the "above average" part of it is his slg and hr.  So what you get is a slightly above average defender (I think), with bad on-base skills, but with tremendous natural power.
 
For a 25-year old making league minimum, I'm perfectly fine with this player being a spot where they don't go crazy trying to improve.  If he's your #9 hitter, that's a hell of a #9 hitter.  
 
FWIW, here's where WMB would have ranked this year if you apply those numbers to this year's leader board (qualified players):
 
AVG - #15
OBP - #18
SLG - #7
OPS - #10
HR - #4
RBI - #3
 
I mean, sure, we'd all love to have Miggy Cabrera in that spot, but my goodness, while WMB sure has his weaknesses, you can live with him as a very cheap and yet productive 3b and spend gobs of money elsewhere.  Now, if he cost you $12 million for that, of course you'd prefer something else.  But he's accumulated 1.2 bWAR over this time, which is worth about $7.5 - 8 million.  Given that he's making just a tick under $500k, that's a pretty significant value.
 
Long story shorter, I'd look to upgrade elsewhere before going nuts over him at 3b.

 

[Robert Plant]

 
That seems like wishcasting to me.  If I'm San Diego why do I want your overpriced pitcher and unreliable 3B?  Headley would cost multiple prospects and they have no reason to take on Dempster unless we're paying his salary to clear a spot in the rotation.

Headley is a free agent next year. If the Pads can't sign him to a team friendly deal and the Red Sox throw in a couple of million, I could see them taking a package of WMB and Dempster. Actually the biggest reason San Diego might not like this deal is that WMB can't hit rhp which is already a weakness for the Pads. Perhaps we could make it an even bigger deal and also do Carp or Nava for Denorfia.

 

[Devizier]

 
I mean, sure, we'd all love to have Miggy Cabrera in that spot, but my goodness, while WMB sure has his weaknesses, you can live with him as a very cheap and yet productive 3b and spend gobs of money elsewhere.  Now, if he cost you $12 million for that, of course you'd prefer something else.  But he's accumulated 1.2 bWAR over this time, which is worth about $7.5 - 8 million.  Given that he's making just a tick under $500k, that's a pretty significant value.

 
I'm with you here; I like Middlebrooks and Bogaerts as starters. I really don't love penciling them in for 140 games, though, especially given that Middlebrooks missed a fair amount of time with a back injury this year (and probably played a fair bit with it, as well). The good news for those like us that don't want the Red Sox to "go crazy" on upgrades is that there are only two free agent third basemen who are arguably better than Middlebrooks: Juan Uribe, who just had a career year at 34 years old, and Jhonny Peralta, who had a great, but PED-linked season this year after being terrible last year.
 
Drew is the best shortstop on the market, so it is a bit of wishful thinking on my part (dreams) to think that the Red Sox will be able to ink him to play the SS/3B carousel, but he would be ideal in that role, especially because you can run him in a de facto platoon with Middlebrooks. But there are a lot of teams with money and a hole at shortstop, so I think the Sox are going to be stuck with a scrub backup. Let's just hope that said player is not a scrub starter.

 

[Rasputin]

 
Yep.  Middlebrooks has played 169 regular season games.  From his b-ref page, here are his 162-game numbers:
 
.254/.294/.462/.756, 590 ab, 31 2b, 0 3b, 31 hr, 99 rbi, 102 ops+
 
The "ordinary" part of it is his ops+, the "below average" part of it is his obp, and the "above average" part of it is his slg and hr.  So what you get is a slightly above average defender (I think), with bad on-base skills, but with tremendous natural power.
 
For a 25-year old making league minimum, I'm perfectly fine with this player being a spot where they don't go crazy trying to improve.  If he's your #9 hitter, that's a hell of a #9 hitter.  
 
FWIW, here's where WMB would have ranked this year if you apply those numbers to this year's leader board (qualified players):
 
AVG - #15
OBP - #18
SLG - #7
OPS - #10
HR - #4
RBI - #3
 
I mean, sure, we'd all love to have Miggy Cabrera in that spot, but my goodness, while WMB sure has his weaknesses, you can live with him as a very cheap and yet productive 3b and spend gobs of money elsewhere.  Now, if he cost you $12 million for that, of course you'd prefer something else.  But he's accumulated 1.2 bWAR over this time, which is worth about $7.5 - 8 million.  Given that he's making just a tick under $500k, that's a pretty significant value.
 
Long story shorter, I'd look to upgrade elsewhere before going nuts over him at 3b.

 
One other thing to consider is that if, as we presume, the Sox mostly stand pat, Middlebrooks would be in a lineup that includes two other power/strikeout guys in Napoli and Salty, and two rookies in Bogaerts and Bradley.
 
My one wish is to bring Ellsbury back. I look at the numbers and the situation and I don't see how it works, but this is a wish thread not a think-it-will-happen thread. I am pretty sure an outfield of Bradley, Ellsbury, Victorino would be the best defensive outfield in the game.

 

[MoGator71]

Trading WMB at this point would be taking pennies on the dollar and that isn't even a slight exaggeration.  His value is massively lower than it's ever been.  I'd argue that even with Drew back WMB represents more value as the backup MI, continuing his work at 1B and 2B, than he would in a trade, and in that case should his offense re-emerge the Sox would then be able to move him or Drew for much more meaningful value.
 
Otherwise if we keep Drew and trade WMB we can have Brock Holt as the MI with Marrero as the closest worthwhile in-house option.  Not real pretty if Drew, Pedroia, or Napoli (all with their own previous histories of getting banged up) miss time.

This is true, and if they don't get a decent offer I'd definitely keep him. But if they do keep him I don't think there's any way they go into 2014 with WMB, Drew, and Xander on the roster. Either Drew or WMB will have to go, and a "real" UI brought in, somebody who can functionally back up Pedroia and Bogaerts. Sure, WMB could sub at 2B for a few innings, but you don't want him playing there for a week. Plenty of offseason to find one of those.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Headley is a free agent next year. If the Pads can't sign him to a team friendly deal and the Red Sox throw in a couple of million, I could see them taking a package of WMB and Dempster. Actually the biggest reason San Diego might not like this deal is that WMB can't hit rhp which is already a weakness for the Pads. Perhaps we could make it an even bigger deal and also do Carp or Nava for Denorfia.

 
I like the idea of this deal if the auxiliary pieces could be worked out. Headley's skill set would be a nice fit for this team.
 

 
 But there are a lot of teams with money and a hole at shortstop

 
There are? I just went looking today and could find few if any. I suppose it depends on your definitions of "money" and "hole," but really the only teams I see that seem to qualify on both counts are the Cardinals and Mets.

 

[plucy]

There is no possible way they will let Ortiz walk. None. You don't let the best dh walk of an already incredibly short list of dh`s.

I think he retires while still near the top of his game.

 

[Sox and Rocks]

Beltran is a perfect fit because JBJ can be used to keep him healthy with Shane going back and forth between CF and RF. 2/30.
McCann is the ideal long term replacement for Papi. Bridge to Vasquez/Swihart. 5/90.
Napoli back at 2/28.
Chavez to platoon with WMB.

Victorino
Beltran
Pedroia
Ortiz
Napoli
McCann
Bogaerts
Nava/Gomes
Chavez/WMB

I agree with all of this.  For the life of me, I can't see why spending big money to bring back Salty is a good idea.  We're talking about a guy who was benched in the World Series, and rightfully so.  I know the number are good compared to other catchers, but watching him play reveals he does nothing well expect hit for power.  Bad plate discipline.  Poor contact.  Horrible at throwing out baserunners.  Apparently he calls a good game for the pitchers, which is good, but probably overstated and can't really be proven.  I would much rather pay (even overpay, if needed) for McCann than sign Salty to a long term deal at anything above 10 mil. per season. 
 
Would love Ells back but don't see it happening.  I do, however, want JBJ insurance and depth, so someone like Beltran makes a ton of sense. 
 
After that, get some bullpen arms.  Sign a couple of setup men with great stuff and/or former closers who still have something to prove (ie Brian Wilson)

 

[opes]

I doubt that. I'm betting he plays as much as possible to make sure he gets in the hof.

 

[Sox and Rocks]

My personal binky is Dexter Fowler who is rumored to be available in trade:
 
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/fowlede01.shtml
 
He is a speedy plate disciplined leadoff hitter with good centerfield defense.  If they don't feel that JBJ is ready, Fowler might be a good target although he will cost prospects.  A pitcher plus a blocked player such as Mookie Betts could be enough to get something like this done.

As a Rockies fan, there is no way this gets it done.  The organization loves Fowler, and won't let him go unless a ransom is offered.  Due to age and cost, they might view him higher than Tulo.  He is one of their untouchables.  Honestly, they would want JBJ and someone like Doobie or Workman and another young arm; even that might not be enough.  

 

[lxt]

I think all the talk about dumping Middlebrooks is a tad premature - He's only 25 with maybe a full season under his belt. As "ivanvamp" stated upgrades may be best elsewhere. Bradley should be available for the OF but I think Ellsbury will be gone and someone needs to be brought in for a year or two to take on CF. Bogaerts has shown me some good things but a year more at the ML should tell us if he's got what is needed.
 
Trade for Bourjos - LAA needs pitching, add a bullpen arm - Chris Perez and add another UIF - Roberts (2B) to round out the club ... assuming Drew, Salty & Napoli are all back. Not a fan of picking up McCann but they could do far worse. Not sure Beltran is a solution. Rotation is good - leave Dempster as Long man if can't trade him - plenty of kids to take on roles if starters go down - bullpen is pretty solid. Bench is good.
 
May want to take a look at Middlebrooks at 1B. He's defense is okay and if he can figure out off speed stuff OBP & Avg should climb - power is not a problem.

 

[nattysez]

I believe Chavez turned down more money from NY last off-season to sign with Arizona. I'm not sure what would drive him to sign with Boston. Never mind that he is a huge roll of the dice health-wise.

 

[mulluysavage]

I see a lot of people advocating letting Ells walk and giving the job to JBJ, but with everyone aging where do we make up the 5.8 WAR from Ells?  Let's say JBJ is worth 2.0 WAR where do we make up that difference?

All they need is .8 to win the division by .5 instead of 5.5?

 

[curly2]

I'm sort of surprised top see so much negativity directed at WMB in this thread. People want to trade him or start him at AAA next season...
 
Sure, his plate discipline is crap. He's not one to take a walk... but he plays a weak offensive position that values defense, which he plays well. In the second half of last season he was a much better hitter. It seems premature to bury a guy because of a sophomore slump.

 
I'm not going to kill WMB, but the second-half improvement featured a great August but a hacktastic September with a .270 OBP and 3 walks in 89 plate appearances. He's obviously got great power, and he doesn't need a GREAT OPS, but he needs to swing at pitches he can drive. He still has too many at-bats where he gets himself out. 
 
I really hope Middlebrooks took a look at the at-bats Bogaerts had and realizes that HE needs to start working better at-bats, too. I know Dwight Evans is employed as some sort of consultant. I'd really love to see the Sox have Evans work with WMB before spring training and all through spring training on improving his approach.
 
I don't expect Middlebrook to become Evans, and I'm NOT looking for him to go up there trying to draw walks, but Evans improved tremendously as a hitter at age 29, and improving his already-pretty-good plate discipline was a big part of it.
 
Even if Bogaerts is the everyday shortstop for years, Cecchini is going to be pushing Middlebrooks, Will needs to work and improve his approach.

 

[j44thor]

sign naps 2/24
qo drew
qo ells
qo salty
sign Veras
sign hanrahan ml deal
sign 3 more rps so we never have to trade for a rp again

 

[selahsean]

Headley is a free agent next year. If the Pads can't sign him to a team friendly deal and the Red Sox throw in a couple of million, I could see them taking a package of WMB and Dempster. Actually the biggest reason San Diego might not like this deal is that WMB can't hit rhp which is already a weakness for the Pads. Perhaps we could make it an even bigger deal and also do Carp or Nava for Denorfia.


Is that package better than the 1st round pick they would get for letting him leave? I'm not seeing it.

 

[bosockboy]

Is that package better than the 1st round pick they would get for letting him leave? I'm not seeing it.

Not as much that as there's no way that would be a winning bid if he was dealt.

 

[RoDaddy]

I'd stick with the rebuilding theme- look what it did for us this year!  Seriously, we have the best farm system we've had in years and I'd prefer to milk it and drive payroll way down save for a possible FA signing or two (McCann?).  I know owners can continue with a relatively high payroll but I've never liked hearing some people compare us to NY in recent years, especially 2007.  That means losing Els and Drew, and signing Nap and Salty only if it's for modest money and 2 years max.  Otherwise, JBJ will replace Els; Xander to SS and WMB at 3rd for a few years (no way I give up on Middlebrooks as he could just as easily turn into a big time power bat and #5 hitter than flop). Cecchini will provide options in 2015 such as his playing first, outfield, or 3rd with WMB and his bad back to first.  Eventually, Xander to third with Marrero to SS in 2016 or so.  I also think that Lavarnway has not shown us his best and could still become a big time power bat.  If Salty or McCann are not signed, I'm fine with Ross/Lavarnway as a bridge until Vasquez/Swihart.  We also have some real good AAA arms that will soon be ready.  Bottom Line:  I'd sacrifice 2014 to develop a very young, talented and relatively low cost team moving forward.  And again, last time we planned to rebuild, we won a 2013 championship!

 

[kazuneko]

I believe Chavez turned down more money from NY last off-season to sign with Arizona. I'm not sure what would drive him to sign with Boston. Never mind that he is a huge roll of the dice health-wise.

This is disappointing if true. This team should have a lot of money to spend - so it would be relatively easy to justify overspending for Chavez (something like the did with Gomes last year) in a part-time role. It's something that would make it much, much easier to feel comfortable going in to the season with Middlebrooks as the primary option at 3b. Similarly, signing Rajai Davis would make it much easier to commit to JBJ (whose biggest issue last season was Davis' biggest strength: his performance vs. LHP).

 

[xjack]

Honestly, they would want JBJ and someone like Doobie or Workman and another young arm; even that might not be enough.

I could see trading Doubrant for an outfielder, but I can't imagine any metric showing Fowler having more value than Doubrant.

 

[nothumb]

I don't see Drew or Ellsbury back, and given what they have in-house and how hard it will be to upgrade reasonably on the FA market (count me among those who see McCann as a pretty big risk), my big concern with next season is that you are looking at a lineup that is very dependent on young players and guys who are candidates to regress. I think I would be fine rolling with JBJ, WMB, X and Salty on a short offer if we could bring in one more very good or excellent hitter in LF or 1B.
 
Beltran is probably the most realistic option. He's not going to get a lot of years no matter what, and perhaps the Sox can offer a little more AAV and the chance to get a ring. This leaves a lot of flexibility to deal with the various shitty things that can happen in the OF; you probably roll with Beltran, JBJ, Vic left to right, but you can move Vic to CF if JBJ struggles, you can play Beltran or Nava in right if Vic is hurt, etc. This can work out with or without Napoli returning (I'd give him the QO and consider a 2-3 year deal with some hip insurance built in for the right price, but also be fine with letting him go).  Nava will get his ABs in any scenario; both Beltran and Vic will need their days off, and if Napoli isn't back I think he gets a shot to platoon at 1B. 
 
So, I'd like to see them go hard for Beltran and sign a couple of relievers with upside. If we are active in the trade market it should be with the aim of adding top offensive talent at corner IF / OF.

 

[Sox and Rocks]

I could see trading Doubrant for an outfielder, but I can't imagine any metric showing Fowler having more value than Doubrant.

The most basic metric, WAR, has Fowler valued between 2 and 3 each of the past 3 seasons;  Doubie has never been above 1.  You are seriously underrating Fowler, and, more importantly for this discussion, the Rockies overvalue Fowler, as they do most of their homegrown players (they are perhaps one of the worst franchises in this regard, for better or worse, and it is usually worse).   They value Fowler even more because of his ability to cover the expansive centerfield Coors Field has.
 
An offer of Doubie for Fowler, even with a decent side piece, gets a an immediate hang up from Bill Geivet.

 

[nothumb]

The most basic metric, WAR, has Fowler valued between 2 and 3 each of the past 3 seasons;  Doubie has never been above 1.  You are seriously underrating Fowler, and, more importantly for this discussion, the Rockies overvalue Fowler, as they do most of their homegrown players (they are perhaps one of the worst franchises in this regard, for better or worse, and it is usually worse).   They value Fowler even more because of his ability to cover the expansive centerfield Coors Field has.
 
An offer of Doubie for Fowler, even with a decent side piece, gets a an immediate hang up from Bill Geivet.

 
I won't argue with you about the Rockies' overvaluing Fowler, but you are leaving out that Doubront is younger, cheaper, has 2 more years of team control than Fowler and has more upside relative to current performance. I would take Doubront over Fowler, both in terms of our current roster, and also in a vacuum all things being equal.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

I agree with all of this.  For the life of me, I can't see why spending big money to bring back Salty is a good idea.  We're talking about a guy who was benched in the World Series, and rightfully so.  I know the number are good compared to other catchers, but watching him play reveals he does nothing well expect hit for power.  Bad plate discipline.  Poor contact.  Horrible at throwing out baserunners.  Apparently he calls a good game for the pitchers, which is good, but probably overstated and can't really be proven.  I would much rather pay (even overpay, if needed) for McCann than sign Salty to a long term deal at anything above 10 mil. per season.

 
If Salty's plate discipline is so much worse than McCann's, it should be easy to tell which one had the 9.1% walk rate this year and which the 9.7%. If that's too hard, tell me which one had the 4.03 P/PA and which one the 4.06. (I think people make the same mistake about Salty that they did about Mike Cameron: they're mistaking lack of contact skills for lack of PD.)
 
Likewise, about throwing out runners--over the past three years, one of them has thrown out runners 23% of the time, the other, 24%. This past year, one of them threw out 24%, the other 21%. There is virtually no significant difference between the two in this regard. They're both pretty bad at it.
 
McCann's advantages are

• his much better contact skills, which lead to better BA and OBP numbers--though that gap disappeared this year thanks to Salty's BABIP surge, and if he can retain even some of that improved BABIP performance it will remain narrower than before;
• his modest perceived edge in overall defensive skills, though I think this gap is narrowing too (most advanced metrics I can find seem to put McCann's advantage this year in the <5 run range).

On Salty's side, he's a significantly better baserunner. He's not fast, but he's not a statue. McCann is one of the slowest men in baseball.
 
Also, McCann's power might dip a little in Boston. If you look at his spray chart at brooksbaseball, his HR power is concentrated exactly where LH power goes to die at Fenway--close to the RF foul line, but not close enough. Fenway would convert a few of his HR to doubles and outs. Salty, whose power is more evenly spread around the field, is probably a better power hitter than McCann in Boston.
 
Overall, yes, McCann is still the better catcher of the two, but I'm not convinced the difference will be worth the additional cost.

 

[Rough Carrigan]

The possibility of Giancarlo Stanton is more alluring to me than McCann or Fowler or Headley.  I don't know the whole context of his last season with Miami but at a superficial glance it seems like you'd be trading while the market for him is a bit down. 

 

[billy ashley]

Being that Giancarlo Stanton is under team control through 2016, one would have to imagine that the cost in acquiring him would be ridiculous.
 
One could argue that when the Diamondbacks traded Justin Upton (along with Chris Johnson*), his perceived value was less of Stanton's current value. At the time of his deal, he also had 3 more years of team control, due to the extension he had signed with Arizona while under team control. The Braves gave Arizona a super utility player coming off a 5 win season (and a wRC+ of 117) in Martin Prado, a really good pitching prospect in Randell Delgado (ranked in  BA's top 50 prospects in both 2011 and 2012) and two other prospects. I seem to recall that a lot of people were kind of surprised that Arizona didn't get more, in return.
 
I don't think Boston is even getting close to Stanton without offering some combination of Xander, Barnes/Ranaudo/Owens, and Swihart/Betts/Cecchini**. I think I'd rather roll the dice with the kids, especially since concerns about Xander's ability to handle short (at least in the medium term) seem to have been answered, positively.
 
* Johnson of course broke out this year and was a viable starting 3b, as opposed to the platoon player he had been before, which tipped the scales on the trade for 2013, considerably.
** In a vacuum, the Marlins probably ask for Bradley instead of Swihart/Betts but they've got a number of OF prospects, as it is.

Edited to add Cecchini

 

[xjack]

The most basic metric, WAR, has Fowler valued between 2 and 3 each of the past 3 seasons;  Doubie has never been above 1.  You are seriously underrating Fowler, and, more importantly for this discussion, the Rockies overvalue Fowler, as they do most of their homegrown players (they are perhaps one of the worst franchises in this regard, for better or worse, and it is usually worse).   They value Fowler even more because of his ability to cover the expansive centerfield Coors Field has.
 
An offer of Doubie for Fowler, even with a decent side piece, gets a an immediate hang up from Bill Geivet.

Fangraphs has Doubront with 2.8 WAR for 2013 vs. 2.2 for Fowler. In terms of his defense, Fowler has had a negative UZR for years.... I'm not saying he's a bad player, but you don't give up Doubront for him.

 

[LostinNJ]

Is this a plausible scenario? -- Ellsbury and Drew are gone, to be replaced by Bradley and Bogaerts/Middlebrooks, with Napoli and maybe Saltalamacchia returning. So the team likely regresses at two key positions, at least in the short term. Factor in that the rest of the team is not young, with several guys coming off surprisingly good years, and we can expect regression in other areas as well. Where on the roster do they counter that trend and contend again for a title?
 
At the end of the Rays series, it seemed a foregone conclusion that Price would be traded. Ignoring for the moment the fact that they would not trade him to the team that just crushed their hopes, what would you give up for him?

 

[LondonSox]

I would wager heavily that xander is not at least offensively a regression from drew this year.
JBJ vs ellsbury next year almost certainly, longer term that could well be close.

 

[Sox and Rocks]

Fangraphs has Doubront with 2.8 WAR for 2013 vs. 2.2 for Fowler. In terms of his defense, Fowler has had a negative UZR for years.... I'm not saying he's a bad player, but you don't give up Doubront for him.

Yeah, I was using RWAR.  I don't care to get into a debate over which WAR is more accurate, but instead was simply responding to your post that "no metric" would value Fowler over Doubront by showing that one common metric does just that.  Even using fWAR, Fowler has been above a 2 for the past three seasons (it's also worth noting that he hasn't yet played an entire season due to health issues, negatively influencing both WARs) while Doubie was for the first time this year. 
 
Also, I am not arguing that Fowler is more valuable than Doubront; my initial response was to the idea that the Sox could pry Fowler "cheaply" from the Rockies, and I don't think that is possible.  In a sense, you are making my point.  If the Sox front office agrees with you that Doubie is more valuable than Fowler, than any trade is probably a non-starter since the Rockies would almost certainly want him and others. 
 
In order to part with Fowler, the Rocks will want MLB ready young pitching.  I don't see what the Sox have to offer to get it done apart from Doubie.  It is quite possible the Rockies' front office values other young pitchers in the Sox organization, say RDLR, Workman, or Barnes, but I doubt any is enough to pry Fowler away.

 

[SumnerH]

Yeah, I was using RWAR.  I don't care to get into a debate over which WAR is more accurate, but instead was simply responding to your post that "no metric" would value Fowler over Doubront by showing that one common metric does just that.  Even using fWAR, Fowler has been above a 2 for the past three seasons (it's also worth noting that he hasn't yet played an entire season due to health issues, negatively influencing both WARs) while Doubie was for the first time this year. 
 
Also, I am not arguing that Fowler is more valuable than Doubront; my initial response was to the idea that the Sox could pry Fowler "cheaply" from the Rockies, and I don't think that is possible.  In a sense, you are making my point.  If the Sox front office agrees with you that Doubie is more valuable than Fowler, than any trade is probably a non-starter since the Rockies would almost certainly want him and others. 
 
In order to part with Fowler, the Rocks will want MLB ready young pitching.  I don't see what the Sox have to offer to get it done apart from Doubie.  It is quite possible the Rockies' front office values other young pitchers in the Sox organization, say RDLR, Workman, or Barnes, but I doubt any is enough to pry Fowler away.

I think Owens probably has more value than any of the bolded now, but I'm not sure the Sox would want to give him up.

 

[CGSO]

I'm not comfortable letting JE walk. I'd give him 6/120.
 
Handing out big contracts may be what we're trending away from, but I would make an exception here with a guy who has proven he can play in Boston. The last 2 years of this deal may not look so good considering the speed element of JE's game will likely be diminished by then, but it's still worth it IMO. 
 
Who knows, maybe he'll regain that power he showed in 2011. Even if he doesn't he's still arguably the most valuable player of the 2013 Red Sox regular season.

 

[SumnerH]

I'm not comfortable letting JE walk. I'd give him 6/120.
 
Handing out big contracts may be what we're trending away from, but I would make an exception here with a guy who has proven he can play in Boston. The last 2 years of this deal may not look so good considering the speed element of JE's game will likely be diminished by then, but it's still worth it IMO. 
 
Who knows, maybe he'll regain that power he showed in 2011. Even if he doesn't he's still arguably the most valuable player of the 2013 Red Sox regular season.

 
Do we have any evidence that this is an actual skill?  I mean, Lackey didn't have it, until he did.  Byung-Hyun Kim did, until he didn't.  Is there anything to really suggest that Boston is so unique that some players can succeed there and others don't have that ability, rather than that Renteria (for instance) simply had an ordinary down season and we projected some special Boston problem onto him?

 

[nattysez]

This is disappointing if true. This team should have a lot of money to spend - so it would be relatively easy to justify overspending for Chavez (something like the did with Gomes last year) in a part-time role. It's something that would make it much, much easier to feel comfortable going in to the season with Middlebrooks as the primary option at 3b. Similarly, signing Rajai Davis would make it much easier to commit to JBJ (whose biggest issue last season was Davis' biggest strength: his performance vs. LHP).

 
There is a lot to chew on here about Chavez.
 
In summary:
- he wants to win and is now willing to be away from Arizona (where he lives) to win
- he played in about half of the D'backs games last year
- he would like to DH to save his body, which he says gets worn down when he plays the field
 
I desperately hope that the Sox get a legit back-up for WMB rather than a utility guy like Izturis, Bloomquist or (gulp) Punto who leaves the team with no viable long-term alternative if WMB scuffles.
 
With that in mind, one interesting name at 3b would be Juan Uribe.  He is a FA.  If you can bring him in on a one-year deal, he could back up WMB competently and also (I assume) play first if needed.  That said, he probably views himself as a starter (he had a good year last year after consecutive miserable years -- the last year of his 3-year deal, imagine that!), so he might be a tough sign if you're bringing him in as a backup.
 
And just to think completely outside the box -- what about Pablo Sandoval?  He's owed $8.25mm next year, after which he'll be a FA.  The Giants need more starting pitching and are disappointed that he won't lose weight.  He's a switch-hitter, but a natural lefty, so he could platoon with WMB if you wanted them both on the roster.  You also could give him a first baseman's glove in the spring and tell him to be ready for anything -- he's athletic enough to handle first and, as he's in his walk year, may be properly incentivized to both drop weight and learn another position.  The issue would be what Sabean would demand for him.  I expect it would take Peavy+cash to get him, which I think is too much to surrender for a guy in his walk year at a position where you already have what you think is a viable starter. 

 

[Rasputin]

I would like to interject this interjection if I may.
 
His name is DOUBRONT.
 
There is no A in the name.
 
For fuck's sake already.
 
Also, will y'all stop with trading everyone hither and yon? We're in a really great situation here and making big deals to get the guy with the name is how that gets fucked up.
 
We've got six starting pitchers. We gotta trade one. Everyone expects that to be Dempster.
 
We've likely got Drew and Ellsbury leaving and we have their replacements which is a big part of why they're likely leaving.
 
That's a pretty good team. As good as this year's? Maybe not, but that doesn't mean you go running around making ridiculous deals for Stanton or Fowler or any other damn player. It means you give Bradley and Bogaerts a chance to make the transition. There's every reason to think they will, which is also something you can say about a fuckload of pitching prospects at AA and higher. Will they all? Of course not, but then, we wouldn't have room for all of them if they did.

 

[SumnerH]

 
We've got six starting pitchers. We gotta trade one.


How does that follow? We had 6 pitchers with 10+ starts this year, two more with 6+, and a couple of spot starters. 2004 is the last time we basically used 5 starters (with a handful of spot starts even then).
Going into the season with less than 7 functional starters seems pretty iffy to me, and at 5 you're banking on once in a decade kind of health and production from the staff.

Ideally you have one or two who have options and can ride the Pawtucket shuttle, but normally you need an Aceves/Doubront/Dempster/ Alvarez/Tavares type who can hide in the bullpen but start when needed.

 

[Rasputin]

How does that follow? We had 6 pitchers with 10+ starts this year, two more with 6+, and a couple of spot starters. 2004 is the last time we basically used 5 starters (with a handful of spot starts even then).
Going into the season with less than 7 functional starters seems pretty iffy to me, and at 5 you're banking on once in a decade kind of health and production from the staff.

Ideally you have one or two who have options and can ride the Pawtucket shuttle, but normally you need an Aceves/Doubront/Dempster/ Alvarez/Tavares type who can hide in the bullpen but start when needed.

Oh, we're definitely going to need more than the five but if we don't trade one of Lester, Lackey, Doubront, Peavy, Buchholz, or Dempster, we're going to have to get one of them hurt or move one to the bullpen. I suppose we could move Dempster to the pen but I want nothing to do with sending Doubront down.

And what's the downside, that we have to have our spot starts made by Webster, Barnes, Ranaudo, Workman, or de la Rosa?

And while we're at it, are you all that confident that a random start in June would be better pitched by Dempster than by whichever of the prospects is doing the best?

And, for that matter, I think the consensus on Workman is that he's exactly that kind of guy.

 

[LondonSox]

It's not really 6 starters, it's six expensive established starters.

The sox have around a dozen starters when used as per the typical usage. There are at least 10 guys you would reasonably expect to be above replacement.

Workman, Webster, de la Rosa, Barnes and ranaudo (take de la Rosa out if he's planned for the pen or Barnes if you are being conservative)

That's 4-5 guys that would be happily pencilled in as most teams 5th starter.

Paying a guy like dempster a ton to be depth makes a lot more sense if you don't have 4-5 guys that can do that for peanuts.

If they can't get any interest in him he has been in the pen before and is only around a year. But this isn't a we have six starters, trade one and then when an injury hits have no plan b.
The pawsox rotation is going to be one the astros would happily start with. Ok bad example. The Portland rotation might fit that low target.

 

[BosRedSox5]

I really don't understand the McCann love.  He is expensive and starting to break down already.
 
He is a great player but you are going to have to give him a bad contract and lose a draft pick.
 
We just won the World Series, this isn't the time to make a big flashy move.  

 
I agree with this. He's a 30 year old catcher who's had a slash line of .252/.329/.441 over the last three seasons. Sure, that's good for a catcher, but baseball reference has his WAR at 2.2 last season. Saltalamacchia's was 2.9. Salty also put up better numbers than McCann in 2012. I just don't see any reason to spend a pick and a long term financial commitment on McCann.
 
Salty's a year younger and he's also played in about half as many games in his career. He's got a lot less wear and tear on him (in fact, we may attribute some of his postseason troubles to fatigue.) Vazquez is 23, Swihart is 21... I could see the Sox bringing Salty back on a 2 or 3 year deal. That makes a lot more sense to me than overpaying McCann does. 

 

[Mugsy's Jock]

 On a separate note, I cannot imagine a single MLB player who would not want to be on this team next year and be part of the camaraderie, first class organization, playing in a historic ball park in front of a connected fan base with an excellent chance to repeat.

You are absolutely right...once you get past the 99.9% of players who would prefer to make the most money.

Let's not get too carried away with our beards here. Baseball is a tough, mean business.

 

[OCD SS]

 
We've seen a full year's worth of play from him, which has included both blazing hot streaks and horrible slumps. The sum total is that so far, he's a thoroughly ordinary player. Not bad, just ordinary.

 
Well it's good to know that players are exactly what they are after a full year's worth of MLB PAs spread over two seasons, one of which where he's possibly coming off an injury.
 
To put it another way, everyone was at least mostly happy with WMB after 2012, and now after less than a full season worth of play, he's worthless. As a 25 yro cost controlled 3Bman (a pretty weak position across MLB). This is what breaking in young players looks like. Everyone with the optimistic time tables for when various prospects will be "ready" and using that to inform their FA choices should take that into account. The only reason half the people here are willing to accept JBJ is probably because he didn't actually play that much in MLB. Equivalencies aren't that helpful and the idea that the Sox should be planning to install Cecchini at 3B is borderline idiotic.

 

[The Boomer]

Thinking outside the box Part 1.  
 
That's what Cherington did last winter.  Who saw any of his free agent signings coming?  He swooped in and preemptively signed Gomes and everyone collectively yawned.  If I remember correctly, he got Ross next.  Who will be an underrated role player that can fill a team need?  Here is my candidate for a JBJ platoon partner who could be signed to a reasonable make good contract and fits the strategy of having role players who can step in to give the "deep depth" that will give them a ML proven outfielder who will help to minimize loss of production due to OF injuries:
 
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3882&position=OF
 
Chris Young strikes out a lot but also has a good BB rate.  He is coming off his worst year at age 29 but is far from done entering his age 30 season.  Slotting him into a platoon role could maximize his power and speed production while minimizing his generally low BA.  He could easily be had for 1, 2 or 3 years for less than the $11 million the A's paid him last year.  He had a defensively down year but was a plus CF defender in the past who can play in all 3 OF slots.  
 
He certainly won't replace Ellsbury but will be much more cost effective.  In a practical platoon with JBJ to start 2014, you limit exposing both players who will have something to prove next season.
 
I will come up with a few more under the radar possible signings that might fit Cherington's effective strategy that he initiated last winter.

 

[lxt]

I We've got six starting pitchers. We gotta trade one. Everyone expects that to be Dempster.
 
We've likely got Drew and Ellsbury leaving and we have their replacements which is a big part of why they're likely leaving.
 
That's a pretty good team. As good as this year's? Maybe not, but that doesn't mean you go running around making ridiculous deals for Stanton or Fowler or any other damn player. It means you give Bradley and Bogaerts a chance to make the transition. There's every reason to think they will, which is also something you can say about a fuckload of pitching prospects at AA and higher. Will they all? Of course not, but then, we wouldn't have room for all of them if they did.
 
I agree with most of what your saying. The idea of trading away solid talent for Stanton or Fowler just seems the wrong move. I feel Drew will be here for another year or two. Bradley is a good bench OF for 2014, he needs a little more fine tuning. I think Bogaerts could benefit from a season coming of the bench, thus Drew at least for another year. Bradley struggled offensively and I don't think Victorino can cover center all year.
 
Picking up someone like Bourjos from LAA to fill in a year or two in center would be a nice fit - he's young, talented & controllable - got pushed to the bench by Trout. Adding Roberts to help out at 2nd if Pedoria gets hurt and another arm like Chris Perez (has closed & setup) in the pen is more than enough.
 
Dempster would be fine in the pen for middle/long relief and a spot start here and there if they can't trade him. There is plenty of talent just waiting for a chance to move up.
 
No big names, no big dollars, just a tad bit of tinkering around the edges.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

I see Boston offering a crazy package for Stanton but still being able to keep Xander and Owens. Middlebrooks would make too much sense not to trade if you can use him as a chip to get Stanton. Something like Webster Barnes WMB JBJ maybe gets it done. Stranger things have happened.

Keep Napoli (2/26) Salty (3/30) and Drew (2/23). Decline Bailey's option then resign him to a 2 year deal. Resign Hanrahan (1/4) with an option for year two that would go up to 2/8). Take the picks for Ellsbury to soften the blow of giving up a lot of your system for Stanton.

Trade Dempster, pick up salary if it gives you a better prospect. Trade Morales for something half way decent such as OF depth, a struggling youngster that needs a chance of scenery or a cost controlled bullpen arm. I would keep Peavy. People like to act as if the guy pitched horrific this post season. He pitched well against Tampa. The game against Detroit wasn't solely on him as he didn't cause Pedroia's defensive hiccups. In the world series he showed a lot by getting out of that jam and keeping it close. I like him. I would also shop Lackey and see what kind of prospect package I can get for him. Value is an at all time high due to his performance and the back end of that contract.

 

[billy ashley]

I see Boston offering a crazy package for Stanton but still being able to keep Xander and Owens. Middlebrooks would make too much sense not to trade if you can use him as a chip to get Stanton. Something like Webster Barnes WMB JBJ maybe gets it done. Stranger things have happened.
 

 
Bradley is a wonderful prospect but he's not likely going to be that appealing to the Marlins. They're incredibly deep in OF prospects, with arguably three major league ready prospects in Yelich,  Ozuna, and Marisnack. While the Marlins have a present need at 3b, they did draft Moran this past year and he's expected to be a fast mover (though there is some dispute to his power potential and defense).

The Marlins are in a strange spot and kind of an interesting trade partner to evaluate... they're not going to be competitive anytime soon, so while Middlebrooks fills an immediate need, they may not be too worried about 2014. If they think Moran will be ready by mid to late 2015, they may be inclined to live with replacement level performance next year.

They're going to want at least one top flight prospect for Stanton (or graduated prospect) and I'm not certain Boston has any of those other than of course, Bogaerts.

I really like Swihart and believe that he could be Boston's next top 25 prospect if he ever starts to show some in game power, but it would be difficult to sell him as a centerpiece. The same could be said of Cecchini. Of the high end pitchers, Ball can't be traded yet... Barnes had good peripherals but received some negative reviews and was hit pretty hard last year, Ranaudo's health record won't make him appealing as a center piece (and his ceiling is probably a number 3 starter, max anyway), and Webster's probably viewed as too risky for this type of a trade.

I'm not down on any of these guys, but in a trade for someone like Stanton, you're going to have to build the deal around a guy who seems like a fairly reliable bet to perform at the major league level.

 

[Devizier]

We've got six starting pitchers. We gotta trade one. Everyone expects that to be Dempster.

 
With five starters rostered for the full season, and Peavy rostered for another half season, the Sox still needed 18 starts from Webster, Aceves, Workman, etc.
 
I don't think the Red Sox should be rushing to thin out their pitching depth, especially with Buchholz closing out the season injured.

 

[kwa1430]

Reading thru the post I can't understand a few things:

1. Why would we even consider Choo? We lose a pick, will have to overpay due to Boras and will not play a key defensive position (don't see him playing CF for RedSox). Yes, he is better thhan Nava but is for the price he will demand it is not good value. They just won the World Series by finding players who fit under short contracts. I just don't see how Choo makes any sense.

2. For every pitcher not named Dempster, there should be no discussion of trading them unless we are getting pitching back. Doubrant is a left handed starting pitcher who shows he can start, pitch a full season and come thru on the brightest stage. Lackey will give you 30+ quality starts, Peavy has proven he can pitch in the AL east and you will need at least 6-7 starts to compete again. This also allows you flexibility with your young pitching to help in either starting or bullpen role.

3. Did we not learn our lesson with Gonzalez? Why give up so many top prospects for Stanton when depth in our minors is more important. We will lose at least two top prospect starters, a major league player and a top position prospect. I would rather have the players in the miners with hope at least 2-3 turn into big league players.

The team needs to keep the same strategy this offseason as last offseason. Find key players, don't overpay and keep deals short. Only person I would discuss long term is John Lester. Hard throwing lefties are hard to come by.

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

Reading thru the post I can't understand a few things:

1. Why would we even consider Choo? We lose a pick, will have to overpay due to Boras and will not play a key defensive position (don't see him playing CF for RedSox). Yes, he is better thhan Nava but is for the price he will demand it is not good value. They just won the World Series by finding players who fit under short contracts. I just don't see how Choo makes any sense.

2. For every pitcher not named Dempster, there should be no discussion of trading them unless we are getting pitching back. Doubrant is a left handed starting pitcher who shows he can start, pitch a full season and come thru on the brightest stage. Lackey will give you 30+ quality starts, Peavy has proven he can pitch in the AL east and you will need at least 6-7 starts to compete again. This also allows you flexibility with your young pitching to help in either starting or bullpen role.

3. Did we not learn our lesson with Gonzalez? Why give up so many top prospects for Stanton when depth in our minors is more important. We will lose at least two top prospect starters, a major league player and a top position prospect. I would rather have the players in the miners with hope at least 2-3 turn into big league players.

The team needs to keep the same strategy this offseason as last offseason. Find key players, don't overpay and keep deals short. Only person I would discuss long term is John Lester. Hard throwing lefties are hard to come by.

I'm tired of people saying because Gonzalez didn't work out, by the way he actually did statistic wise that we should abstain from any big trades. There are two types of prospects. The type that you build around and the guys you use to get players to build around. Gonzalez and Stanton are two completely different players. Gonzalez was going into his 30s when the Sox traded for him. Stanton has not even reached his prime and will not for a few years. He is under team control as is for a few more seasons and in his prime could hit 45+ homers. Gonzalez was also coming off shoulder surgery.

Besides the package that was given up for Gonzalez wasn't even that great. Fuentes hasn't done much until this year where he finally put up respectable minor league numbers. Kelly had Tommy John surgery and the Sox could probably get him back for 30 cents on the dollar if needed and Rizzo who has been solid but inconsistent.