I'd personally give QOs all the way around but I could see hesitancy to give one to Salty. Giving it immediately would give him leverage in negotiating an extension since $14M is more than he's getting for AAV. I'd be willing to give him 2/$20M or 3/$27M. I'm pretty sure he can beat that on the market, but his sudden jump in BA during a career year doesn't instill me with confidence that 2013 Salty is the guy we'll get over the life of the deal. If he leaves for a more lucrative deal despite having the QO hung on him I'd roll with a three way competition between Ross, Lavarnway, and Butler with Ross as he 25 man roster lock as the stabilizing veteran. I'd still kick the tires on Yenier Bello just to make sure he isn't available for a steal though.
I'd offer Napoli a 2 year deal with $14M guaranteed and $14M in games played bonuses. That's a pretty good situation for him I'd say, pads gives him security but security with the understanding that the Sox don't want to be on the hook for all $14M when his hip blows out. If he wants more years that could also be arranged, as long as he's amenable to this configuration, i.e. a third year option that vests if he sees 500+ PAs in 2014 and 2015 each, that would pay a similar $7M +$7M maximum bonus based on games played.
Drew would only get the QO, I wouldn't offer anything beyond that because the team has no definite home for him beyond next season assuming that any of Cecchini, Middlebrooks, Coyle, or Betts are knocking on the door. Everyone is worried about blocking Cecchini with Drew when in reality even if Cecchini scuffles you could still find yourself blocking a nice young prospect in 2015 if either of Betts or Coyle shows up in 2014 and rakes AA. They're both 2B currently, but obviously that job is blocked and Betts in particular is supposed to have and arm that might play well at the corner. The wealth of guys who can viably fill the long term role Drew would be signed for precludes even making a long term offer. That said, if he accepts the QO then Bogaerts starts at 3B and Middlebrooks should start taking more reps at 1B, 2B, and personally I'd even have him start working in the corners. He's supposed to be a great athlete and his arm would definitely work in a corner OF position. It would also likely take some of the mental pressures away from him and let him focus more on his offense after a brief transition period.
I'm all for offering Ellsbury a competitive AAV. Personally I think they should frame their negotiations around the deal given to JD Drew when talking with Ellsbury. Drew, a young 31 when he signed, got 5 years at $70M from the Sox when he opted out of his deal with the Dodgers. That is a deal where both Drew and the Red Sox did quite well for themselves. Both Ellsbury and Drew are strong defenders. Drew hit for more power and had better OBP skills while Ellsbury is a superior base stealer. A 5/$85M deal would suggest about a 20% appreciation in ML player salaries, which sounds reasonable. This also conforms with Hunter Pence's recent deal with San Francisco to avoid free agency of 5 years, $90M, given that Pence is a superior offensive player to Ellsbury with far less injury concerns. Unfortunately I think Ellsbury is stepping into a hungry market where someone will make a bad deal to add a "difference maker" and Ellsbury is well positioned to be the benefactor of that.
If that doesn't happen and miraculously Ellsbury returns on a reasonable deal the Sox OF is set with Ells in CF, Victorino in RF, Gomes and Nava resuming their platoon, and allowing for Castellanos, Bradley, and Hassan to vie for the #5 job while the losers go to Pawtucket.
When he does sign elsewhere though CF becomes Bradley's job to lose and I'd forgo the veteran depth and instead just employ Castellanos as the 5th OF. He's played some CF, can play multiple positions, and sounds like a solid enough RF to hold his own in Fenway's RF, allowing Victorino to be JBJ's backup/insurance policy while Castellanos is first up for ABs in either instance. Hassan would be the fall back if Gomes and/or Nava turn into pumpkins.
Then shop some pitchers. Dempster is the one I'd prefer to move, but a too good to refuse offer for Peavy isn't entirely unlikely and I wouldn't be surprised if Doubront gets some real heat, though I'd demand a high price for him as he's under control for four more seasons and high K/9 lefties are scarce.
Add some bullpen depth, still interested in grabbing Brian Wilson if he'll throw a bit of a New England discount the Sox way. A potential second closer type like him, Crain, etc. is what I'd be thinking, pushing Breslow back to the lefty specialist role and taking nightly pressure off both Taz and Koji.
Other than that I'd be pretty happy with just lining it up and taking another shot at it. This is a good team that won the series with their most talented pitcher missing the majority of the regular season and being a shell of himself in the playoffs. The farm system's pitching crop was also about one year behind where the Cardinals' pitching depth was this year, so even significant injury won't see any Abe Alvarez types getting starts, more like Webster, RDLR, Barnes, Ranaudo, etc.. On top of that the positional player side has some nice depth too with Hassan, Butler, Vazquez, Cecchini, Brentz, Marrero, etc. all close to the majors as at a minimum solid depth additions. This team doesn't need to deal prospects or get stupid with money to fill holes, instead just keep what you know works, let the farm solve your problems, and take another crack at it.
The title this year is such a massive "win" for this organization as it doesn't even put any onus on the FO to try and artificially extend this group's window. The four QO contenders are the only FAs being lost, but that doesn't mean the rest of the roster is full of long term deals. Ortiz, Lackey, Lester, Ross, Koji, and Gomes all come off the books after 2014 and Victorino is off after 2015. They can legitimately line up almost the exact same roster for a repeat attempt without handing out bad deals in the process. The 2-3 year deals from last season have them now in possession of the bridge those deals were meant to provide along with a title shot window for at least one more year. It's an ideal time to just sit back, ride it out, collect some draft picks via the compensation system, and see where the farm and the roster is post-2014 before doing anything too dramatic.
