Hot Stove Transactions

[mabrowndog]

Hard to say you were wrong about what you saw, since you witnessed the absolute worst baseball of his career on a number of fronts. His Toronto stint was his nadir in batting line (.218/.258/.321/.579), normalized fWAR (-0.7 per 500 PA), normalized baserunning (3.7 RAA per 500 PA), and his UZR at second base was only 0.6 runs above average per 150 games.
 
But batted ball luck didn't treat him as kindly there (.277 BABIP compared to .332 over his career). He's only 2 seasons removed from a .296/.360/.393/.753, 2.8 fWAR, 40 SB, 78 run season with the Marlins, and he was a completely different player last year after joining the Royals (.285/.352/.348/.700, 2.8 fWAR per 500 PA, 10.0 baserunning RAA per 500 PA, and a 3.6 defensive fWAR per 150 games (combined from 31G at 2B and 6 apiece at 3B and CF). His UZR/150 at 2B was 1.5 RAA.
 
Bear in mind that as 2013 got underway he was still dealing with a fucked-up left thumb -- he had surgery in May 2012 after spraining it, costing him 2 months, then re-sprained it after returning in August -- as well as a sprained right knee that had ended his season in September. Based on that, I'm inclined to believe his time with the Jays was more of an outlier than a predictive glimpse.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Jeff Euston ‏@JeffEuston4h
You can't have a Winter Fan Fest AND Emilio Bonifacio. Pick one or the other.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

Hard to say you were wrong about what you saw, since you witnessed the absolute worst baseball of his career on a number of fronts. His Toronto stint was his nadir in batting line (.218/.258/.321/.579), normalized fWAR (-0.7 per 500 PA), normalized baserunning (3.7 RAA per 500 PA), and his UZR at second base was only 0.6 runs above average per 150 games.
 
But batted ball luck didn't treat him as kindly there (.277 BABIP compared to .332 over his career). He's only 2 seasons removed from a .296/.360/.393/.753, 2.8 fWAR, 40 SB, 78 run season with the Marlins, and he was a completely different player last year after joining the Royals (.285/.352/.348/.700, 2.8 fWAR per 500 PA, 10.0 baserunning RAA per 500 PA, and a 3.6 defensive fWAR per 150 games (combined from 31G at 2B and 6 apiece at 3B and CF). His UZR/150 at 2B was 1.5 RAA.
 
Bear in mind that as 2013 got underway he was still dealing with a fucked-up left thumb -- he had surgery in May 2012 after spraining it, costing him 2 months, then re-sprained it after returning in August -- as well as a sprained right knee that had ended his season in September. Based on that, I'm inclined to believe his time with the Jays was more of an outlier than a predictive glimpse.

It was his fielding that I found the most troubling .. I don't think he got enough innings in at any position to reliably trust any defensive stats. The eyeball test told me he was just a bad , bad fielder. But who knows .. Maybe he just didn't like Toronto. I know the Blue Jays thought they were getting a really nice little player as part of the Marlins deal. They were sadly disillusioned and dumped him at the first opportunity.

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

It was his fielding that I found the most troubling .. I don't think he got enough innings in at any position to reliably trust any defensive stats. The eyeball test told me he was just a bad , bad fielder. But who knows .. Maybe he just didn't like Toronto. I know the Blue Jays thought they were getting a really nice little player as part of the Marlins deal. They were sadly disillusioned and dumped him at the first opportunity.

 
It's a little different playing on that surface in Toronto though, right? Or do you mean in general as you saw over the season everywhere. I have to admit, I'd really like to see Bonifacio in a utility role for the Sox. IMO, he's much better than Ciriaco was. I remember watching him play for the Marlins and being mildly impressed.

 

[MakMan44]

The Mariners have done yet another stupid thing:
 

Source: #Mariners, Fernando Rodney agree on 2-year, $14 million contract. Could earn up to $15M with incentives.

 
Next up,

The #Mariners say they are all in and yes, are cautiously optimistic they will also sign slugger Nelson Cruz.

 

[mabrowndog]

Former Falmouth Commodore Brett Wallace gets DFAd by the Astros to make room on the 40-man for RHSP Jerome Williams (signed this week on a 1-year, $2.1M deal). He's out of options. I was always surprised at how highly touted he was as a prospect, since he never seemed to get away from that feast-or-famine swing he had in the Cape League, and became an easy target for MLB breaking balls low & away and, more recently, high inside heat.

 

[Rough Carrigan]

The Mariners have done yet another stupid thing:
 
 
 
 
Next up,

But to really experience stupid you have to have watched Harold Reynolds comment on this at MLB Network.  Reynolds didn't understand the point of this signing. . . because Danny Farquhar looked good in the 2/3 of a season that he pitched.  I mean, it's not like there are any recent teams whose success showed the value of stockpiling closers or possible closers.   If only there had been a recent champion for which that was one of the keys to their success.

 

[Rasputin]

But to really experience stupid you have to have watched Harold Reynolds comment on this at MLB Network.  Reynolds didn't understand the point of this signing. . . because Danny Farquhar looked good in the 2/3 of a season that he pitched.  I mean, it's not like there are any recent teams whose success showed the value of stockpiling closers or possible closers.   If only there had been a recent champion for which that was one of the keys to their success.

 
Quick question, who wins a dumb-off between Harold Reynolds and Nick Cafardo?

 

[Van Everyman]

We all lose.

 

[glennhoffmania]

 
Quick question, who wins a dumb-off between Harold Reynolds and Nick Cafardo?

 
Harold.  Part of Nick's nonsense is schtick.  Harold is simply pure moron.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Former Falmouth Commodore Brett Wallace gets DFAd by the Astros to make room on the 40-man for RHSP Jerome Williams (signed this week on a 1-year, $2.1M deal). He's out of options. I was always surprised at how highly touted he was as a prospect, since he never seemed to get away from that feast-or-famine swing he had in the Cape League, and became an easy target for MLB breaking balls low & away and, more recently, high inside heat.

I saw the feast part of his swing when he was an Arizona State Sun Devil.  He hit what season ticket holders told me was the longest HR they'd ever seen off future MLB pitcher Tom Koehler in an NCAA Tournament game.

 

[mabrowndog]

RHRP Mitchell Boggs gets a guaranteed $1.1M major league deal from the White Sox, while RHRP Luis Ayala has to settle for a minor league contract with the Nationals. 
 
The mind reels.

 

[mabrowndog]

K-Rod to the Brew Crew for 1 year and $3.25M with another $550k in incentives.

 

[Darnell's Son]

Bronson Arroyo signs with the Diamondbacks for 2 year $23.5 million.

 

[Dahabenzapple2]

Jesus Christ, that seems like a ton of money for Arroyo.

Similar to the Dempster signing last year

 

[mabrowndog]

Roy Oswalt retires.
 
Mariners sign LHSP Randy Wolf and RHRP Zach Miner to minor league contracts. Wolf sat out all last year recovering from TJ surgery.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Adam Rubin ‏@AdamRubinESPN 32s
Jose Valverde signs with #Mets on minor-league deal
 

 

[MakMan44]

Wow. AJ Burnett is not a smart man.
 
 
 

Phillies have a one year deal with Burnett, source confirms.

 
https://twitter.com/JSalisburyCSN/status/433644358316068864
 
EDIT: Actually, I guess his market was really only the Phillies and the O's towards the end. 

 

[Jed Zeppelin]

He scored a $16 million deal as a 37 year old in an offseason where he was seriously considering retirement. Not sure what more he could ask for.

 

[MakMan44]

He scored a $16 million deal as a 37 year old in an offseason where he was seriously considering retirement. Not sure what more he could ask for.

Sure, if he was seeking only the money (and distance to his home) he got a good deal. What are the odds he gets a WS ring next season though?

 

[mabrowndog]

EDIT: Actually, I guess his market was really only the Phillies and the O's towards the end. 

 
The Pirates wanted to re-sign him, but not for anything near $16M.

 

[mabrowndog]

Sure, if he was seeking only the money (and distance to his home) he got a good deal. What are the odds he gets a WS ring next season though?

 
I he's pitching well enough, what are the odds he doesn't get traded to a contender at the deadline?

 

[mabrowndog]

Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes reports that the Dodgers are nearing a deal with Cuban shortstop Erisbel Arruebarruena.

 

[MakMan44]

 
I he's pitching well enough, what are the odds he doesn't get traded to a contender at the deadline?

No clue, placing odds on anything RAJ does is a fool's errand.

 

[mabrowndog]

My point was that just because he's signed with the Phillies doesn't mean he won't have a shot at a championship this season if they suck.

 

[MakMan44]

Yeah, I got that. I was just a bit embarrassed I didn't think of that myself, hence the sarcasm. 

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

Sure, if he was seeking only the money (and distance to his home) he got a good deal. What are the odds he gets a WS ring next season though?
 

 
Plus he won a ring in 2009 (and maybe he got one in 2003), this is a money grab for him. And like Dog says, he can get traded mid-season.

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes reports that the Dodgers are nearing a deal with Cuban shortstop Erisbel Arruebarruena.

 
This makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. Where are they going to play him?
 
Edit: I guess they need depth in the minors and scouts think this kid isn't major league ready yet. I guess he's Hanley insurance but it sounds like he's basically the same player as Dee Gordon. 
 
All of your Cubans are belong to us!

 

[Just a bit outside]

 
This makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. Where are they going to play him?
 
Edit: I guess they need depth in the minors and scouts think this kid isn't major league ready yet. I guess he's Hanley insurance but it sounds like he's basically the same player as Dee Gordon. 
 
All of your Cubans are belong to us!

It makes me think they feel Guerrero is not a shortstop candidate next year if needed.

 

[mabrowndog]

Former Falmouth Commodore Brett Wallace gets DFAd by the Astros to make room on the 40-man for RHSP Jerome Williams (signed this week on a 1-year, $2.1M deal). He's out of options. I was always surprised at how highly touted he was as a prospect, since he never seemed to get away from that feast-or-famine swing he had in the Cape League, and became an easy target for MLB breaking balls low & away and, more recently, high inside heat.

 
He's cleared waivers and was outrighted to AAA. That's a pretty strong indictment not just of his positional and roster inflexibility, but how much more famine than feast he is in the eyes of the other 29 MLB GMs.

 

[Average Reds]

He scored a $16 million deal as a 37 year old in an offseason where he was seriously considering retirement. Not sure what more he could ask for.

 
In what universe does it make sense to try (and fail) to dump Cliff Lee because his contract is too expensive and then turn around in the offseason and sign 37 year old A.J. Burnett to a one year deal for $16 million?
 
Ruben Amaro has to be the dumbest GM in the game right now...
 
Edit:  Just saw that it's Amaro's birthday, so maybe this was in lieu of hookers and blow?

 

[edoug]

 
In what universe does it make sense to try (and fail) to dump Cliff Lee because his contract is too expensive and then turn around in the offseason and sign 37 year old A.J. Burnett to a one year deal for $16 million?
 
Ruben Amaro has to be the dumbest GM in the game right now...
 
Edit:  Just saw that it's Amaro's birthday, so maybe this was in lieu of hookers and blow?

Cole Hamels shoulder problems may have a lot to do with this.
 
http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/24440080/phillies-cole-hamels-battling-shoulder-tendinitis-behind-schedule

 

[mabrowndog]

The Pirates wanted to re-sign [A.J. Burnett], but not for anything near $16M.

 
The stories confirming this are now coming out.
 

 
The end actually came last fall when the Pirates offered Burnett a one-year, $8.5-million contract before he became a free agent.
 
Burnett was said to be insulted with an offer that represented a 47 percent pay cut from his 2013 salary of $16.5 million. The Pirates’ rationale was that the Yankees paid $8.5 million of that $16.5 million, part of the terms of trade that sent Burnett to Pittsburgh at the start of spring training in 2012.
 
Even when the Pirates increased their offer to $11 million, it wasn’t enough to entice Burnett to come back.

 
Burnett told the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review last year during spring training that he would either return to the Pirates in 2013 or retire and had no desire for any other team. He reiterated those feelings late in the regular season, saying “I can’t imagine playing for anyone but the black and gold.”
 
But everything changed when the Pirates decided not to start Burnett in the decisive Game 5 against the Cardinals in the National League Division Series after he had been rocked for seven runs in two innings in Game 1. Rookie Gerrit Cole got the start instead and the Pirates lost.
 
Manager Clint Hurdle told Burnett of his plan immediately after the Pirates lost in Game 4 at PNC Park, setting up the winner-take-all game two nights later at St. Louis.
 
Burnett was enraged by the decision and threatened to not fly with the team to St. Louis despite being told he would likely start Game 1 or 2 if the Pirates advanced to the National League Championship Series to face the Dodgers.
 
While the clubhouse was closed to the media, sources on the inside said it made for an awkward scene with the players still upset about suffering a tough 2-1 loss and failing to clinch the series while Burnett ranted.
 
Meanwhile, a source close to Burnett, said being bypassed for the Game 5 start motivated the 37-year-old to play one more year. He felt he still had something to prove and also did not want to end his career on such a bad note.

 
What a soap opera. If true, Burnett comes off like an arrogant asshole and entitled baby with no self-awareness.
 
You're 37 and you completely sucked ass when it counted, you fucking tool. So your response is to make yourself more important than your other 24 teammates AND show up your manager in front of them? Way to be a mature leader of men, you whiny bitch.
 
Kudos to the Pirates for low-balling him, though I'm a little disappointed they upped their offer to him (unless that was a means of running up the bidding for the Phillies, in which case double-kudos). I hope he takes a stinging line drive to the eye socket off the bat of Andrew McCutcheon in his first start at PNC.

 

[VBSoxFan]

Franklin Gutierrez informs the Mariners he won't be playing this year, due to a reoccurrence of the gastrointestinal problem he dealt with last season. Too bad, a number of health issues have derailed his once-promising career.

 

[NDame616]

 
In what universe does it make sense to try (and fail) to dump Cliff Lee because his contract is too expensive and then turn around in the offseason and sign 37 year old A.J. Burnett to a one year deal for $16 million?
 
Ruben Amaro has to be the dumbest GM in the game right now...
 
Edit:  Just saw that it's Amaro's birthday, so maybe this was in lieu of hookers and blow?

 
Not that signing Burnett was a bad signing (I happen to think it isn't that terrible of a deal) but do you really think it's the same thing to try to trade Lee and get out of his deal that'll cost about $100M, and Burnett for $16M?
 
If he plays out his contract, Cliff Lee will cost the Phillies over 5X what Burnett cost

 

[absintheofmalaise]

 
In what universe does it make sense to try (and fail) to dump Cliff Lee because his contract is too expensive and then turn around in the offseason and sign 37 year old A.J. Burnett to a one year deal for $16 million?
 
Ruben Amaro has to be the dumbest GM in the game right now...
 
Edit:  Just saw that it's Amaro's birthday, so maybe this was in lieu of hookers and blow?

What makes this a bad signing for me is that the Pirates had excellent IF defense and used defensive shifts to save, according to Dewan, 24 more runs with their IF gloves and another 9 with their shifts than the average team. The Phillies IF gave up 50 more runs than average, according to Dewan. Burnett is a GB pitcher now. Last year he had a 56.5% GB rate. They also had their pitchers throwing more 2 seamers to induce more GBs. 
 
From the article:

 
Burnett arrived in Pittsburgh in 2012 having struggled so badly in New York that the Yankees paid a significant portion of his remaining contract to jettison him. In the American League, Burnett was a four-seam fastball, home run-prone pitcher. In the NL, he has returned to top-of-the-rotation status thanks to a sinking fastball. His groundball rate has climbed to its best rate since 2005.
“I know over the past couple of years I sink the ball more than I have in the past,” Burnett said. “I felt my last couple years in New York that I was having problems with the four-seamer away to lefties. I went outside to lefties about five times this year. I'm pitching in more with the two-seamer.”

 

[MakMan44]

Source: #Braves’ six-year deal with Teheran worth $32.4M.

 
https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/434354618181902336

 

[soxhop411]

Angels signed Mark Mulder to a minor league deal; he could make up to $6M. Hasn't pitched in five years.

RT @FrankTank96: #Angels LHP Mark Mulder ruptured his left Achilles. Likely ends his season and his comeback bid. #MLB

 

[Muddy Chicken]

RT @FrankTank96: #Angels LHP Mark Mulder ruptured his left Achilles. Likely ends his season and his comeback bid. #MLB

Link

 

[MakMan44]

https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/436542293735374848
 

Source: Simmons deal with #Braves is seven years, $58M.

 
That's 3 big extensions for the Braves this offseason. 

 

[mt8thsw9th]

 In the NL, he has returned to top-of-the-rotation status thanks to a sinking fastball. His groundball rate has climbed to its best rate since 2005.
“I know over the past couple of years I sink the ball more than I have in the past,” Burnett said. “I felt my last couple years in New York that I was having problems with the four-seamer away to lefties. I went outside to lefties about five times this year. I'm pitching in more with the two-seamer.”

He's also a strikeout pitcher, though. His K rate of 9.8/9 ranked #1 in the NL, so from that perspective, doesn't it make sense for a lousy defensive team like the Phils?

 

[MakMan44]

Cruz signs a 1 year deal with the O's for 8 million. 
 
http://espndeportes.espn.go.com/news/story?id=2028281&s=bei&type=story
 
Seems like a silly move on the O's part but I guess a second round pick isn't that big a deal. 

 

[Seabass]

Cruz signs a 1 year deal with the O's for 8 million. 
 
http://espndeportes.espn.go.com/news/story?id=2028281&s=bei&type=story
 
Seems like a silly move on the O's part but I guess a second round pick isn't that big a deal. 

 
Not sure how this can be viewed as silly for the O's -- they had hole in their OF and they got Cruz for cheap. He doesn't get on base at a great clip, but his power is legit and he's an obvious upgrade over Nolan Reimold or Henry Urrutia. The O's have a two year window before Davis and Wieters hit FA -- this is the kind of signing they should make. 
 
I think this offseason will change how marginal players who get qualifying offers will view them going forward. I'd be surprised if we don't have one or two accepted QOs next year.

 

[MakMan44]

If they think he's worth giving up a pick for, why not sign him to a multi year deal? Like I said though, maybe a second round pick isn't all that important. 

 

[Seabass]

Last year the 55th pick was worth about $1,000,000. That's tough to lose from your bonus pool, but the upgrade Cruz presents for the O's is worth more than that. The O's won 85 games last year - say they view Ubaldo as a three win upgrade and Cruz as a two win upgrade -- that gets them to 90 and a good shot at the playoffs. That's why this deal makes sense.
 
I'm sure the O's would've preferred to give him a two or three year deal, but I imagine Cruz wanted to take a one year deal. He'll try to reestablish his value, hope that he doesn't get another QO, and then get a two or three year deal this offseason.

 

[MakMan44]

I hope it backfires big time on them but you make fair points. Can't disagree. 

 

[Sox and Rocks]

I think both the Jimenez and Cruz signings are shrewd moves by the O's, especially since they were patient enough to weight out the market and get both players under market value.  
 
The Cruz move, in particular, is a good one.  If he is even 80-90% of his juiced up self, he's a bargain at $8 million, even with a 2nd round pick factored in.  

 

[BoSox Rule]

Szymborski said ZiPS has a one year deal giving up the O's 55th pick at $2.2 million. He's really not very good.

 

[moondog80]

Love the logic of once they sign Jiminez, why not sign Cruz for them. At this point, why not get Morales too, if he'll sign for 6 mil? They need a DH.