Hot Stove RUMORS Thread

[Yaz4Ever]

Twitter is abuzz with rumors that the Phillies are making Cliff Lee (2 years/$62.5M remaining) and Cole Hamels (5 years/$118.5M).  They won't send cash in any deal, but I'd think that they could be have with lower level prospects in return.  One report said that they'd throw in Dominic Brown (58th of 62 OF in UZR) with either of them.  No interest in Brown, but I wouldn't mind Hamels or Lee allowing us to offer of Felix, Lackey, Peavy, and Dempster for help this off-season.  I'd rather keep Felix under normal circumstances, but 5 years of Hamels under contract makes moving him more palatable.

 

[DourDoerr]

I pity the Phillies fans - that's a messed up team.  They sign Byrd for $16 million and Ruiz for $26 million and now they're offering up their best pitchers because of their salaries?  Why didn't they take solace in the 2013 Sox model.  Keep your good pitchers and build from the scrapheap and cheap and hope a prospect emerges and chemistry kicks in.  At the worst, you get the bigger salaries a year closer to expiration and you use your picks (presumably higher) to build up the farm.  This is just misery.
 
That's a tough call on Hamels.  He's as steady as can be - the definition of a workhorse.  And he's been very good in the playoffs, but he turns 30 at the end of the month and you'd be getting his age 30 through 35 seasons at about $20 million a year.  He's pretty much the NL Jon Lester and they're the same age so if you sign Lester as well, you'll have 2/5th's of your rotation expensive and aging at the same rate.  I like Hamels as a hedge against another Buchholz injury though, and it's difficult to find good pitching these days and especially so at a discount.   I'd do the trade if you can get a bargain regarding prospects and it's not an either/or with re-signing Lester.  Lester's just too valuable with his success in the AL East.
 
By the way, according to Baseball Ref, most similar pitcher to Hamels at age 29 - Jake Peavy.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

I really don't get what the Dbacks are doing here - supposed three-team trade in the works:
 
Dbacks give Skaggs, Eaton and get Trumbo
Angels give Trumbo, get Skaggs and Santiago
ChiSox give Santiago, get Eaton
 
That seems VERY steep for Trumbo who would then play LF for the Dbacks.  Angels make out very nicely and Eaton is a nice get for the ChiSox, but I'd expect a little more coming there way (prospect) in exchange for Santiago.

 

[Rough Carrigan]

I really don't get what the Dbacks are doing here - supposed three-team trade in the works:
 
Dbacks give Skaggs, Eaton and get Trumbo
Angels give Trumbo, get Skaggs and Santiago
ChiSox give Santiago, get Eaton
 
That seems VERY steep for Trumbo who would then play LF for the Dbacks.  Angels make out very nicely and Eaton is a nice get for the ChiSox, but I'd expect a little more coming there way (prospect) in exchange for Santiago.

Trumbo's a guy whose HR and RBI numbers are the best looking things about him.  His strikeout totals have gone from 120 to 153 to 184 albeit in slightly increased playing time this last season.  But do you really want to pay for the next number in that series?  AZ is the team that got sick of Mark Reynolds' strikeouts.  Well it'll be deja vu in the desert.  And his obp's have been .291, .317 and .294.  All solidly below average.   Stretch WMB's 2012 out to a full season, make him more expensive and that's Trumbo but not as good a fielder at less demanding positions. 

 

[MakMan44]

I'd trade WMB for Skaggs and Eaton in a heartbeat. He'd at least make sense as an upgrade to Prado.

 

[E5 Yaz]

I'd trade WMB for Skaggs and Eaton in a heartbeat. He'd at least make sense as an upgrade to Prado.

 
I gather your meaning here is that WMB = Trumbo, and while that might be the case down the road, it isn't today. Even though they're similar hitters, WMB has yet to produce at even Trumbo's level. 

 

[Dredog1918]

https://twitter.com/bradfo/status/410465826459123712

 

[MakMan44]

 
I gather your meaning here is that WMB = Trumbo, and while that might be the case down the road, it isn't today. Even though they're similar hitters, WMB has yet to produce at even Trumbo's level. 

No, I agree. However, I think the fact that WMB has a reputation as a decent 3rd baseman closes the gap to the point where it could be considered a wash. That and the fact that Trumbo is a few years older with less years of team control left is where I'm basing my argument. 

 

[ivanvamp]

 
I gather your meaning here is that WMB = Trumbo, and while that might be the case down the road, it isn't today. Even though they're similar hitters, WMB has yet to produce at even Trumbo's level. 

 
So would you do WMB for Skaggs straight up?  

 

[ForceAtHome]

I'd trade WMB for Skaggs and Eaton in a heartbeat. He'd at least make sense as an upgrade to Prado.

 
Middlebrooks is an upgrade over Prado?
 
Prado is a good defensive 3B with a .343 career OBP. He's been .350+ OBP in four of the past six seasons. Prado started very poorly at the plate for the Diamondbacks last year, but was fantastic in the second half (1st half: .253/.303/.365/.668, 2nd half: .324/.374/.490/.864). That difference was likely driven largely by his .260 BABIP in the first half and .326 BABIP in the latter half.
 
Prado produced 2.3-2.4 WAR last year despite his .288 BABIP (career .311). He's a year removed from a 5.5-5.7 WAR season. Middlebrooks hasn't proven anything...

 

[MakMan44]

I have a hard time believing that Prado will EVER accumulate 5 WAR in a season again. Regardless, I was talking mostly about ISO. Prado has a career .139 ISO while Middlebrooks has exactly 2 seasons under that mark (including MiL #s). I mean, if they're trying to acquire Trumbo, that's all they're looking at anyway.

 

[DJnVa]

https://twitter.com/bradfo/status/410465826459123712

 
Some of us are blocked from twitter at work--it would help if you'd also rely the info in the tweet,
 
Thanks

 

[E5 Yaz]

 
Some of us are blocked from twitter at work--it would help if you'd also rely the info in the tweet,
 
Thanks

 
It's nothing major. Just the report that one GM thinks Drew will go back to the Red Sox

 

[Wade Boggs Hair]

 
Some of us are blocked from twitter at work--it would help if you'd also rely the info in the tweet,
 
Thanks

 
Only a feckless IT department would block Twitter but not SoSH. The inappropriate content lives here.

 

[ForceAtHome]

I have a hard time believing that Prado will EVER accumulate 5 WAR in a season again. Regardless, I was talking mostly about ISO. Prado has a career .139 ISO while Middlebrooks has exactly 2 seasons under that mark (including MiL #s). I mean, if they're trying to acquire Trumbo, that's all they're looking at anyway.

 
You said that Middlebrooks was an upgrade over Prado and that he'd actually "make sense" for Arizona unlike Trumbo. Naturally, I took that to mean that you think that Middlebrooks is better than Prado... As for ISO, the D'Backs gave Prado $40m coming off a 10 HR season. I don't think they were hoping for huge power.
 
Also, for what it's worth, Prado has reached 5 WAR in two of the past four seasons. I like his odds of hitting the mark better than Middlebrooks' odds. Prado has averaged 3.3 fWAR and 3.6 bWAR since becoming a regular. He's around 4 WAR per 150 games. Prado is quietly a really good player.

 

[MakMan44]

 
You said that Middlebrooks was an upgrade over Prado and that he'd actually "make sense" for Arizona unlike Trumbo. Naturally, I took that to mean that you think that Middlebrooks is better than Prado... As for ISO, the D'Backs gave Prado $40m coming off a 10 HR season. I don't think they were hoping for huge power.
 
Also, for what it's worth, Prado has reached 5 WAR in two of the past four seasons. I like his odds of hitting the mark better than Middlebrooks' odds. Prado has averaged 3.3 fWAR and 3.6 bWAR since becoming a regular. He's around 4 WAR per 150 games. Prado is quietly a really good player.

I don't disagree but they could put Middlebrooks at 3rd and move Prado to left. That makes a whole lot more sense than just putting Trumbo in LF, where he's probably a liability.

 

[Dionysus]

DBacks get crazier. Are apparently offering Joba $3 Million

 

[Wingack]

Yankees have expressed an interest in Dustin Ackley. Not a bad idea for second base.

 

[edoug]

Old friend, Brandon Jacobs, likely to go to DBacks in the Trumbo deal.
 
https://twitter.com/jimcallisMLB/status/410542651994537984

 

[PedroiaGamer]

A three team trade just occurred with the Angles, D-Backs and White Sox

I don't have all the details. Just tuned in to MLB Network.

 

[E5 Yaz]

A three team trade just occurred with the Angles, D-Backs and White Sox

I don't have all the details. Just tuned in to MLB Network.

 
umm, another one?

 

[PedroiaGamer]

http://m.washingtonpost.com/sports/nationals/mark-trumbo-to-diamondbacks-in-3-team-trade/2013/12/10/67934fec-61ff-11e3-a7b4-4a75ebc432ab_story.html

 

[E5 Yaz]

That happened hours ago. Check the Hot Stove Transactions thread

 

[PedroiaGamer]

Damn!

 

[PedroiaGamer]

Wow!

I have to get this site figured out. Missed that thread.

 

[SemperFidelisSox]

Indians are open to trade proposals for Asdrubal Cabrera, as well as Justin Masterson, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me. @FOXSports1

 

[Rough Carrigan]

MLB network said that Nelson Cruz is looking for a $100 million contract.
 
Hmm.
He's a butcher in the field.   Ask the Cardinals who got a chance to win the 2011 World Series thanks to Cruz.
He got a 50 game suspension for PED use.
He's a little on the heavy side and will turn 34 next July 1st.
And here's his career home/road splits which are almost entirely his numbers as a Ranger in Texas and elsewhere while playing for the Rangers:
Home:  (1592 plate appearances) .294/.356/.556
Road: (1590 plate appearances)  .242/.299/.435
 
$100 million comin' right up!

 

[rembrat]

 

Indians are open to trade proposals for Asdrubal Cabrera, as well as Justin Masterson, sources tell @Ken_Rosenthal and me. @FOXSports1

 

 
I've always wanted Justin Masterson back. That dude is a horse.

 

[MakMan44]

 
I've always wanted Justin Masterson back. That dude is a horse.

I posted this on the main board but I'll ask it here too: Why not just wait until he's a FA next offseason and sign him instead of trading for him now?

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I posted this on the main board but I'll ask it here too: Why not just wait until he's a FA next offseason and sign him instead of trading for him now?


You get one more year of his prime and help the team that just won a World Series and is bringing back most of that roster to take another stab at it before they lose up to three of their starting pitchers in Dempster, Peavy and Lester, a key bench player in Gomes and likely start seeing real decline from Ortiz and probably Victorino.

The championship window opened early so it makes sense to try and capitalize on it so long as the expense is kept reasonable. Don't gut the farm, but be willing to spend some chips on improving the 2014 club. 2015's team could be really good, but 2014's already is. Make the most of it.

 

[MakMan44]

You get one more year of his prime and help the team that just won a World Series and is bringing back most of that roster to take another stab at it before they lose up to three of their starting pitchers in Dempster, Peavy and Lester, a key bench player in Gomes and likely start seeing real decline from Ortiz and probably Victorino.

The championship window opened early so it makes sense to try and capitalize on it so long as the expense is kept reasonable. Don't gut the farm, but be willing to spend some chips on improving the 2014 club. 2015's team could be really good, but 2014's already is. Make the most of it.

That's fair so long as the Red Sox also trade Dempster. I don't see Peavy to Masterson as all that much of an upgrade but Dempster to Masterson could be huge. 

 

[RedOctober3829]

The Tigers traded Fister so I thought that would be it for possible rotation moves, but then this from Jeff Passan.
 

Sources: AL Cy Young winner Max Scherzer "definitely in play" in trade talks. Nothing imminent, but teams know he can be had
 

https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/410818560764551168

 

[Tyrone Biggums]

Twitter is abuzz with rumors that the Phillies are making Cliff Lee (2 years/$62.5M remaining) and Cole Hamels (5 years/$118.5M).  They won't send cash in any deal, but I'd think that they could be have with lower level prospects in return.  One report said that they'd throw in Dominic Brown (58th of 62 OF in UZR) with either of them.  No interest in Brown, but I wouldn't mind Hamels or Lee allowing us to offer of Felix, Lackey, Peavy, and Dempster for help this off-season.  I'd rather keep Felix under normal circumstances, but 5 years of Hamels under contract makes moving him more palatable.

Amaro was asking for X plus another prospect on top of him for Lee. I would love Cliff Lee but no thanks.

 

[ForceAtHome]

From this morning:
 

 
The #Yankees would like to grab #indians Masterson in a 3-team trade involving CF Gardner if they can pull it off

 
- Bob Nightengale

 

[RedOctober3829]

From this morning:
 
 
- Bob Nightengale

 

paul hoynes ‏@hoynsie 3m
Francona called Masterson and told him he's not being traded.
 

 

[BoSox Rule]

Dan Szymborski just retweeted this quote from Amaro about Garza and it is hilarious "Kendrick has 64 wins. You know how many wins Garza has? 67."

If I was a Phillies fan I'd kill myself.

 

[Dionysus]

Dan Szymborski just retweeted this quote from Amaro about Garza and it is hilarious "Kendrick has 64 wins. You know how many wins Garza has? 67."

If I was a Phillies fan I'd kill myself.

That quote was the highlight of my day. My Twitter feed was gold after that hit. It was fantastic.

As for Philles fans, very few are like Crashburn Alley. I work near Philly with a ton of their fans. While most hate Ruben right now, it's not because of stuff like that.

I tried to use that comment to initiate some mocking, and I got mostly confused looks. They didn't get why that quote was so bad, even after I slowly and carefully explained why Wins are the worst stat ever.

 

[RedOctober3829]

@JonHeymanCBS: #yankees turned down a brandon phillips for brett gardner offer. #reds

 

[Ed Hillel]

@JonHeymanCBS: #yankees turned down a brandon phillips for brett gardner offer. #reds

 
Wait, like...for REALZIES? Are they holding out for Sale?

 

[ForceAtHome]

 
Wait, like...for REALZIES? Are they holding out for Sale?

 
Phillips is massively overrated in my opinion. He has 4 more years left on his deal with $50m total ($12.5m average). These are also his age 33-36 seasons.
 
Career slash line: .271/.320/.429/.749
2013 slash line: .261/.310/.396/.706
 
Phillips' bat is trending downward fast, he's always had poor OBP skills, he's getting older, he's no longer a running threat, and his power is down. His defense still rates highly, but I'm not sure I'd want to bank on that through his mid-30s. Unless you value "run producers" and RBI, Phillips doesn't seem like a great get. The fact that he drives in runs batting behind Votto (and Choo this year) is nothing special.
 
This is my favorite Phillips moment from this year.

 

[Wingack]

@JonHeymanCBS: #yankees turned down a brandon phillips for brett gardner offer. #reds

 
Yeah, I am ok with that. As ForceAtHome points out there is a lot not to like about Phillips.

 

[Ed Hillel]

Well, apparently the Yankees were considering the deal and Phillips demanded to renegotiate his contract for more money. My guess is they would have taken the deal otherwise.

 

[Plympton91]

This all makes sense...but making a lot of money, old, declining skills- aren't these attributes the Yankees are looking for in a player?

The fact that they paid Ellsbury so much that they now need to move a very similar and cheaper player in Gardner to fill other holes is kind of mind boggling, frankly.

 
Gardner was really their only chip for upgrading elsewhere and he may bring better value than is currently available in the free agent market at pitcher or second base.  Having the better Ellsbury replace Gardner and free him up for a trade may have been part of the strategy, not an unfortunate after-the-fact realization by them.

 

[DanoooME]

If this is true, Arizona is really fucked up.  Matt Davidson to the White Sox for Addison Reed.  I mean, really?  A good 3B prospect for a closer.  Martin Prado ain't gonna be around forever.
 
DID NO ONE LEARN FROM THE REDDICK DEAL???????

 

[MakMan44]

Already done Dan

 

[RyanKalishOnTheDL]

At least Reddick can field, Davidson can't, nor can he make contact.

 

[LuckyBen]

There is something so delicious about the Papelbon to Orioles rumors. I honestly can't decide who is having the more head scratching off-season, them or the Yankees.

 

[glennhoffmania]

AJ back to the AL East?  I'm in favor.
 

It's been known for some time that the Orioles along with the incumbent Pirates are hoping to secure the services of A.J. Burnett for 2014. Now comes this tweet from Peter Gammons that clarifies the O's level of interest and adds the Rays to the scrum:
 

Orioles "all in" on AJ Burnett, Rays in, early in process
— Peter Gammons (@pgammo) January 30, 2014

 

[Rough Carrigan]

 
AJ back to the AL East?  I'm in favor.
 
 

Orioles "all in" on AJ Burnett, Rays in, early in process
— Peter Gammons (@pgammo) January 30, 2014

Wait till Peter Angelos, while bathing in the tears of mesothelioma sufferers, starts inspecting MRI's of Burnett's veteran pitcher shoulder.

 

[glennhoffmania]

Angels and Trout may be talking extension.  This would be fascinating.
 

• 
  

  The Angels made a number of low-cost moves this offseason, a tactic MLB.com's Anthony Castrovince believes is a nod towards saving money to lock Mike Trout up to a long-term extension.  Trout's future price tag is the biggest question facing the Angels franchise and "the most captivating contractual conundrum in the game today."  We heard earlier today that Trout and the Angels would discuss a multiyear deal this spring.