Hot Stove Rumors - The Fenway Edition

[InsideTheParker]

As soon as I become truly impressed by a member of this team---Workman, Lackey, Doubront, Nava, for examples---thread after thread on Sosh envisions trading them for players who may be more exciting, but who may have all sorts of warning signs: Kemp, with a history of shoulder injury, Sale with a funky delivery that may signal future injury, for examples. I hope BC's trigger finger is a bit slower than some of yours.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

@nickcafardo

Stephen Drew has a market but not at extensive as previously thought. Red Sox feel they have a good chance to retain him.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

 
Wait, why? Trading Bautista for a guy like Lackey really makes no sense. If they are trying to contend, why would they want Lackey but not Bautista?

The TO media has been all over the idea of trading Bautista for pitching all off-season. They want a # 2 starter at a minimum. The concencus is they have enough offense even without Joey Bats. Of course an Ace would be preferred but would need a third team involved to provide prospects for that to happen .

It seems like a sideways move at best. But Lackey plus Ranaudo would be reasonable

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

Is Drew (Boras) pricing himself out of the market for some teams?  What kind of world pays 3/30 for S.Feldman but doesn't pony up for Drew?   Unless the Sox themselves are willing to go 2/20+...

 

[Corsi]

#Pirates have added #RedSox' Mike Carp to the list of left-handed-hitting first basemen in which they have some interest.
 

https://twitter.com/jperrotto/status/410146854081273856

 

[Corsi]

Is Drew (Boras) pricing himself out of the market for some teams?  What kind of world pays 3/30 for S.Feldman but doesn't pony up for Drew?   Unless the Sox themselves are willing to go 2/20+...

 
It's also the draft pick compensation necessary to sign Drew.

 

[SoxLegacy]

As soon as I become truly impressed by a member of this team---Workman, Lackey, Doubront, Nava, for examples---thread after thread on Sosh envisions trading them for players who may be more exciting, but who may have all sorts of warning signs: Kemp, with a history of shoulder injury, Sale with a funky delivery that may signal future injury, for examples. I hope BC's trigger finger is a bit slower than some of yours.

This is exactly where I am as well. Some of the ideas I have read here seem like we haven't done anything on or off the field for a number of years.

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

Understand re draft pick, but I'd still think teams with protected picks would give up a 2d rounder for an all-around SS.

 

[Montana Fan]

Look, Michael Bourn signed in mid-February.  It's a bit early to get worried about Stephen Drew.

 

[Reverend]

Let's not forget that Carp and Nava only cost like 0.5m each. If they believe they're going to move Dempster or Peavey, ok, but otherwise, there are significant salary issues in play here.
 
On the issue of Nava, I have no idea how you evaluate a guy who was a rookie at 27 and put up a 128 OPS+ at age 30. His career arc is insane--if it continues like it has back to college, he should be MVP when he's 53.

 

[benhogan]

As soon as I become truly impressed by a member of this team---Workman, Lackey, Doubront, Nava, for examples---thread after thread on Sosh envisions trading them for players who may be more exciting, but who may have all sorts of warning signs: Kemp, with a history of shoulder injury, Sale with a funky delivery that may signal future injury, for examples. I hope BC's trigger finger is a bit slower than some of yours.

Hallelujah!  All this Kemp, Stanton, Choo, Batista talk is utter nonsense. 
 
The Sox have made it clear they like "deep depth at a good price", and a Gomes/Nava platoon in LF plays exactly into that.
 
The Sox have also made it clear they value "team chemistry", once again Gomes/Nava cover that.
 
The Sox have made it clear they want "young, controllable players", Nava, Doubront and Workman fill the bill.
 
Boston is a unique baseball experience for players, you just don't know how they will react to playing on the stage here. Taking a player and plugging in BABIP reversion, field adjusted, league adjusted, STEAMER projection stats is only part of the equation.  Personally I'll take the guys that made it happen here last year and roll the dice with them.  Santa Ben has filled our stockings with Nap, some RH relief help and AJ.  Extend Lester + a few more small nuances and then load the trucks for spring training.

 

[judyb]

Nava reminds me of Youkilis in that it feels like you almost can't trade him because his trade value will never match up to his actual value until both are gone.

 

[Plympton91]

Hallelujah!  All this Kemp, Stanton, Choo, Batista talk is utter nonsense. 
 
The Sox have made it clear they like "deep depth at a good price", and a Gomes/Nava platoon in LF plays exactly into that.
 
The Sox have also made it clear they value "team chemistry", once again Gomes/Nava cover that.
 
The Sox have made it clear they want "young, controllable players", Nava, Doubront and Workman fill the bill.
 
Boston is a unique baseball experience for players, you just don't know how they will react to playing on the stage here. Taking a player and plugging in BABIP reversion, field adjusted, league adjusted, STEAMER projection stats is only part of the equation.  Personally I'll take the guys that made it happen here last year and roll the dice with them.  Santa Ben has filled our stockings with Nap, some RH relief help and AJ.  Extend Lester + a few more small nuances and then load the trucks for spring training.

 
I agree 100% with your sentiment, but the problem is that you can't have a platoon at every position or you run out of roster spots, and some, perhaps including the Red Sox front office, think that Bradley in CF needs a real platoon partner and suckage/injury insurance that was not necessary last year for Jacoby Ellsbury (in part because Bradley was at AAA providing the injury insurance).  If the front office feels comfortable penciling in Bradley for 150 games, then this discussion of Nava and Carp is unnecessary.   It would help if Nava was better against righties or if either of them could credibly cover RF in Fenway on a semi-regular basis, but they can't, which makes them a bit redundant on a team that needs more part time players after Ellsbury was allowed to leave for NY.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

 
It's also the draft pick compensation necessary to sign Drew.

 
What would be the consequence to the Yankees of signing Drew?  All the rules I see online about the process don't seem to take into account the situation where a team is both signing and losing multiple players with QOs.  As I understand it, the Yankees are -1 pick.  They signed three players who received QOs from other teams (Beltran, Ellsbury, McCann) and they had two players to whom they made QOs sign with other teams.  I assume this means they lose their first rounder, then they pick up two comp picks, but they lose them both, because they are the best available nonprotected picks.
 
So, now what?  If they were to sign Drew they have nothing left to give, except their second round pick.  That seems kind of lame -- that the Yankees, because they've signed so many QO players, actually have less of a disincentive to signing another one than other teams do. 

 

[MakMan44]

They lose their second rounder but we'd just get another sandwich pick. 

 

[Minneapolis Millers]

Yes, that's how the QO process works.  The MFYs would lose just their 2d Rd pick to sign Drew. 

 

[Section15Box113]

 
Since when?  All of the speculation I've read about a Stanton to the Sox trade seems to be media and fan-driven.

 
True, but harken back to the Manny trade.  At the time, there were rumors of Stanton as the centerpiece of a deal with the Marlins.
 
Sure, it's been years.  And it's a different regime, albeit with some continuity.  But the Sox first interest came well before he was a household name (and in fact before he was Giancarlo).

 

[soxhop411]

 

Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports that the Brewers and Red Sox are among the teams interested in free agent reliever Carlos Marmol.
Marmol posted a 2.53 ERA over 21 appearances after joining the Dodgers around mid-season this year and struck out 27 batters over 21 1/3 innings. That's not say that he's fixed, as his control was just as bad as ever, but it's no surprise that teams still see some upside here. Dec 9 - 5:36 PM
 

 
http://www.rotoworld.com/player/mlb/4478/carlos-marmol?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

 

[jimbobim]

Listen I know SOSH loves the affordability and flexibility of our outfield now, but the awesome success of last year is far from guaranteed to continue. The constant awesomeness of an ageless  Ortiz and a 5 win Ells contributed significantly to our offensive success last. I'm optimistic X has the potential to be a very productive middle of the order hitter, but it's not unreasonable to see this team needing another productive power bat. 
 
I have no problem with JBJ replacing Ells because he offers a fairly similar profile and is controlled for years. However, they have a ton of pitching depth and it would be very prudent to be searching high and low for a projectable replacement for Ortiz's production for when he inevitably experiences some decline. 
 
Outfield is the most flexible position to add to assuming they like Drew and or want to keep WMB around. 

 

[lambeau]

I'm not necassaily opposed, but it would be ballsy to go into next year starting Bradley (career BA .189), Middlebrooks (2013 BA .227) and Gomes (career .225 RHP).

 

[MakMan44]

I'm not necassaily opposed, but it would be ballsy to go into next year starting Bradley (career BA .189), Middlebrooks (2013 BA .227) and Gomes (career .225 RHP).

Is this a serious post? 

 

[soxhop411]

“@pgammo: Red Sox now feel a RH Rajai Davis/Denorfia alternative to Jackie Bradley doesn't fit roster. They need their CF to be an everyday player."..”

 

[joe dokes]

 
I agree 100% with your sentiment, but the problem is that you can't have a platoon at every position or you run out of roster spots, and some, perhaps including the Red Sox front office, think that Bradley in CF needs a real platoon partner and suckage/injury insurance that was not necessary last year for Jacoby Ellsbury (in part because Bradley was at AAA providing the injury insurance).  If the front office feels comfortable penciling in Bradley for 150 games, then this discussion of Nava and Carp is unnecessary.   It would help if Nava was better against righties or if either of them could credibly cover RF in Fenway on a semi-regular basis, but they can't, which makes them a bit redundant on a team that needs more part time players after Ellsbury was allowed to leave for NY.

 
If the Sox dont think Bradley can play he wont. If they think he can, they wont get "suckage insurance" in the form of a major leaguer who costs to get. If Bradley goes on teh DL, there are a hundred Jonathan van Everymen out there.  If Bradley sucks, they'll do something later.  For the short term, if they think he needs a day off here and there, Victorino will play a few games in CF.
 

Nava reminds me of Youkilis in that it feels like you almost can't trade him because his trade value will never match up to his actual value until both are gone.
 
 
 

 
He also reminds me of Daubach and O'Leary as cautionary tales not to fall in love with. (I mean, WE can fall in love with him, but they are not the players you give longish deals to once you lose control.)

 

[jimbobim]

I don't know the exact stats,  but I believe they confirm the eye test that Nava is close to in the best case scenario replacement level against RH and Above average to good hitter and a  tough out against righties. He's more valuable as a platoon. Hence the usefulness of Johnny Gomes. Both did their jobs  last year and the LF platoon was above average overall. They are both relatively valuable pieces for teams desperate for OF help. Mets, Mariners, Detroit, Texas, Royals.  
 
Mariners need a right handed bat. They were in on Napoli supposedly. The Dodgers are probably hoping they overpay for Matt Kemp. Trumbo is a right handed bat being floated now. 
 
If you were quietly shopping WMB who would you trade him for ? I think Drew comes back on a 2 year 10 million deal. The QO offer suppress his market and they want Bogaerts to be a SS but he did play a very solid 3B under the most pressure. 
 
I think X is headed for a Manny Machado like year and if they decided to add another long term controllable bat as a sell low on WMB paired with dempsters contract I'd probably do it.  

 

[DJnVa]

 
True, but harken back to the Manny trade.  At the time, there were rumors of Stanton as the centerpiece of a deal with the Marlins.

 
The centerpiece going to Pittsburgh, not the Sox.
 
The Sox were always getting Bay.  

 

[yaykob]

Per Steve Silva: Ben Cherington told me today that the team is "close to getting a first baseman that most people will recognize" ( https://twitter.com/stevesilva/status/410261345246793728 )
 
Does this signal a Carp trade or is this just a delayed reaction to Napoli?

 

[Reverend]

I don't know the exact stats,  but I believe they confirm the eye test that Nava is close to in the best case scenario replacement level against RH and Above average to good hitter and a  tough out against righties. He's more valuable as a platoon. Hence the usefulness of Johnny Gomes. Both did their jobs  last year and the LF platoon was above average overall. They are both relatively valuable pieces for teams desperate for OF help. Mets, Mariners, Detroit, Texas, Royals.  

 
What the heck does it take to qualify as a good hitter in your estimation?
 
Look, if you want to say he can't sustain it or won't repeat his numbers for some reason, give the reason and I'm all ears, but the guy has raked against righties, and we know this.

 

[jimbobim]

I'm not saying trade Nava. I'm merely saying he is very valuable contract and performance wise. Relatively low risk obviously last year was the big reward. 

 

[JimBoSox9]

I'll believe that story gets broken by a named Cherington tip to Steve Silva when I see it happen, sleep on it, and read it again in the morning.

 

[Harry Hooper]

Per Steve Silva: Ben Cherington told me today that the team is "close to getting a first baseman that most people will recognize" ( https://twitter.com/stevesilva/status/410261345246793728 )
 
Does this signal a Carp trade or is this just a delayed reaction to Napoli?

 
 
Lars Anderson comes in from the wilderness?

 

[SouthernBoSox]

I'll believe that story gets broken by a named Cherington tip to Steve Silva when I see it happen, sleep on it, and read it again in the morning.

Silva responded saying "It's Napoli, he was teasing the official announcement"

Sounds like Cheringtons humor.

 

[soxhop411]

 
 
Lars Anderson comes in from the wilderness?

its napoli… Its not "offical" yet

 

[JohntheBaptist]

Silva responded saying "It's Napoli, he was teasing the official announcement"

Sounds like Cheringtons humor.

Yeah, reads to me as an obvious joke from BC that flew over Silva's head.

 

[BeantownIdaho]

Owings , Gregorius in play...Is this something the Sox would or could do?
https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/410809838974033920

 

[jimbobim]

Depends on how much you like WMB. Either would look nice playing SS with X holding down the corner. 

 

[kazuneko]

“@bradfo: Seems to be a lot of interest in Mike Carp. Considering what's left in first base maker, makes sense”

“@JMastrodonato: Belief by some at Winter Meetings is that Red Sox could sell high on Daniel Nava or Mike Carp. Carp makes a lot of sense for a lot of teams.”

With Ellsbury gone and Napoli signed it's getting harder to justify carrying both Carp and Nava on the same roster.  Sure it's nice to have the extra protection against a Napoli injury, but if the team were to replace Carp with an extra OF (i.e. as insurance and possible platoon partner for JBJ) Nava - could be used to fill that role. Even if the team were going to keep an extra back-up at 1b a player that could also play 3b would be a far more efficient use of a roster space. Free agent Eric Chavez, for example, could not only back-up Napoli at 1b but also provide a solid hitting LHB to periodically spell Middlebrooks against RHP.
Carp had a good season last year and may never be more valuable than he is now. As much as I like him it's probably time to let him go...

 

[YTF]

Well Corey Hart's off the market. Perhaps Carp draws a little more interest.

 

[Corsi]

Well Corey Hart's off the market. Perhaps Carp draws a little more interest.

 
Logan Morrison traded to the M's, as well.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

With Ellsbury gone and Napoli signed it's getting harder to justify carrying both Carp and Nava on the same roster.  Sure it's nice to have the extra protection against a Napoli injury, but if the team were to replace Carp with an extra OF (i.e. as insurance and possible platoon partner for JBJ) Nava - could be used to fill that role. Even if the team were going to keep an extra back-up at 1b a player that could also play 3b would be a far more efficient use of a roster space. Free agent Eric Chavez, for example, could not only back-up Napoli at 1b but also provide a solid hitting LHB to periodically spell Middlebrooks against RHP.
Carp had a good season last year and may never be more valuable than he is now. As much as I like him it's probably time to let him go...

 
People just won't let go of this "platoon partner for JBJ" binky
 
The FO has stated rather clearly that they want JBJ to be the full time CF - and they don't need a backup as Vic is available for that role.
 
That's not to say they wouldn't upgrade LF given an opportunistic deal - hence the kicking of tires on Choo, Beltran and Kemp. I think they really like Nava's present - but haven't made the Troy Oleary mistake of falling in love with his future.
 
And it's also not to say they wouldn't like to see a AAA CF who could come up when needed and not completely suck. 

 

[jimbobim]

Maybe more interest in Carp/ Nava,  but also the price for Choo seems to be dropping. Read somewhere he's looking for 22 AAV. Wonder how  4 years at 80 mill. maybe with an option. Similar to a McCann type deal.  

 

[YTF]

Logan Morrison traded to the M's, as well.

Look at Seattle driving up Carp's trade value!!!!

 

[Devizier]

nm

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

 
Logan Morrison traded to the M's, as well.

 
Have they completely given up on Justin Smoak? I know he's been viewed as a disappointment so fay but he's still only 27.
 
I really hope Jack Z is on Ben's speed dial 

 

[moondog80]

Have they completely given up on Justin Smoak? I know he's been viewed as a disappointment so fay but he's still only 27.

I really hope Jack Z is on Ben's speed dial


I like Smoak too but what would the Sox do with him?

 

[Pumpsie]

Maybe more interest in Carp/ Nava,  but also the price for Choo seems to be dropping. Read somewhere he's looking for 22 AAV. Wonder how  4 years at 80 mill. maybe with an option. Similar to a McCann type deal.  

Today's news is that Choo is looking for a 7 year, $140mm deal.  Just say no.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

I like Smoak too but what would the Sox do with him?

 
I think I was implying that Jack Z is an idiot and would be a good relationship to cultivate.
 
They could always flip Smoak for something of value .. kind of looks like they are getting ready to give him away. I agree he has no place on the current roster.

 

[Devizier]

 
People just won't let go of this "platoon partner for JBJ" binky
 

 
They're mainly worried about Bradley not being very good at the plate, which is entirely within the realm of possibility. Given that he's left-handed, he might suck especially bad against LHP.
 
It's a reasonable concern. As of right now, the front office is eschewing it, but that doesn't mean they're right.

 

[Devizier]

They could always flip Smoak for something of value .. kind of looks like they are getting ready to give him away. I agree he has no place on the current roster.

 
As someone who has seen a lot of Smoak, I dont think he has any real value.
 
Unlike Chris Davis, Smoak hasn't even really mashed at AAA in his limited at-bats there. He's looking more and more like a complete bust.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Conceivably, I'd like a reserve outfielder that has some defensive value. Nava in RF in Fenway for any long stretch of time, if such a case arose, does not seem ideal.
 
Meanwhile, I'll ask because I simply don't know, is Quintin Berry worth bring back as a fifth outfielder?

 

[E5 Yaz]

The sun will rise, the sun will set and you'll have lunch.

 
Wherein Roger Clemens and Willie McGee are combined in the Gorman Encyclopedia