Hooking Crochet? Rumors of Red Sox "right in the thick of" trying to trade for him
- Thread starter The Gray Eagle
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The price for any good starting pitching is going to be steep.
FWIW, FanGraphs had him projected for 3/$54m/$18m. MLBTR was really close - 3/$60m/$20m.
Hm, that's roughly in line with what I thought he'd get, but didn't see the Angels giving it to him.
Is Pivetta gonna get $80 million?
If I were reading the tea leaves, I'd judge that Crochet's ultimatum had to do with last season only. He was coming back from injury, and made a huge innings leap. But he got through it, built up to 146 IP, and finished the year healthy. From that base, he shouldn't need to be restricted at all.
(The risk is real IMO. In a similar situation, Matt Harvey in 2015 threw 190 IP coming back from TJS and then pitched ~25 more innings in the postseason and then was never good again.)
this is how I’m leaning. We have money and pitching is available for money. Abreu and prospects can be used for many other purposes, including playing them!, and the deal doesn’t need to happen in the offseason.
Seems his price doesn’t reflect all the risk that comes with him.
The Angels fully realizing that they aren't going to be in the hunt for the big names likely offered more in exchange for having him signed before teams in the hunt for the big names are forced to turn elsewhere.
Fair, but also fair to mention that Crochet has absolutely NOT qualified himself as an innings eater and although the term seems to imply mediocrity, innings eating is actually very valuable
The problem with signing league-average innings eaters is that they seldom continue to be durable and league-average as they age. The Angels will be pleased with the signing if Kikuchi’s 2025-27 look like his 2023-24, but that’s not likely, and I don’t think there’s any scenario where the contract ends up being a bargain.
Oh yeah, never doubted the risk. It's totally real.
As for Kikuchi being a sign that CWS are going to get a "haul"...I mean, Eduardo Rodriguez, another ostensible "innings-eater", got 4/80 last offseason despite not really being healthy in 2022 or 2023. Seth Lugo got 3/45 even though he'd just had his first season ever as a full-time starter. Go back three years and you can see Kikuchi getting 3/36 from Toronto even though he had a career ERA+ of 85 up until that point.
None of that changed the deals that, for example, Tampa got for Glasnow, or CWS got for Cease. Which were good deals, to be clear, but nothing on the order of what people are talking about for Crochet.
The bottom line is that I think most teams would rather just shell out money than deal their prospects or productive young palayers because you're still gonna have to pay the guy you traded for.
If a mediocre (let's say a 4.10 ERA type) pitcher can give you 180+ innings in a season consistently (but really.... who can? The Sox had Pivetta (missed several starts) and Giolito (missed the season) as "innings eaters". But a hypothetical reliable guy like that has to be weighed now, IMO, against the more standard Chris Sale or Garret Cole 1/2 season with 1/2 season of replacement level pitcher. I don't know if any team REALLY can afford to think they need Chris Sale and a Tanner Houck as a "depth" guy in the likely chance he gets injured but right now the Sox have some good depth in the liklihood of one of Fried (yeah, I'm predicting him on the Sox), Giolito, Houck, Crawford or Bello gets injured. In past seasons, they really didn't have good depth and fragile starters on the ML team.
Guys who can pitch a bunch of league-average innings are hugely valuable. Signing guys in their 30s with a track record of doing so is a poor way to secure those league-average innings — because injuries are more random than we once thought, and since the end of the Steroid Era the conventional aging curve has reasserted itself. Pivetta added a ton of value for us but is unlikely to replicate that production over the next few years. Kikuchi is similar but a couple years older, and therefore a worse bet.
Sox can walk away. No way should they do Abreu, Casas and Wong for Crochet. No one else would give that much. I think Abreu and one of Perales, Crawford or any other 7 to 10 Sox prospect is plenty. Maybe add a lotto pock if needed. He may br Cy Young but he may also be Matt Young.
If the Phillies are indeed the primary challenger here, given Dombrowski's willing to make moves quickly the Red Sox might find themselves out of the running.
The smart move from Chicago management might be to wait to see who doesn't get Snell/Burnes/Fried. Downside to that is the deals they prefer could be off the table
The smart move from Chicago management might be to wait to see who doesn't get Snell/Burnes/Fried. Downside to that is the deals they prefer could be off the table
It’s fine if you don’t want Crochet, but Abreu plus flotsam won’t get it done.
I’m in the “sell high on Duran” camp, so I’d be willing to deal him and any prospect besides Anthony/Mayer/Teel (edit:: also Campbell) for Crochet. It’s totally reasonable to think that’s too much, but I think that’s about what it would take.
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Sending Casas and Abreu would be crazy. If that’s the ask/demand, the Sox should just move on and focus their attention on signing one of Fried or Snell.
I hope you simply forgot to add Kristian Campbell to this list, and aren't saying that you'd do Duran AND Campbell for Crochet. According to Alex Speier in today's Globe, there is a debate inside the Sox system whether Anthony or Campbell is their #1 prospect at this point. And he knows their minor league system as well as anyone.
Well, unless I missed something (very possible!) it seems like the smoke we've heard about through the media has been the White Sox commenting approvingly about Abreu as a centerpiece, the Orioles being taken aback at CWS asking for Mayo and Basallo, and the Phillies proposing Bohm and Crawford. I like Justin Crawford perfectly well as a prospect, but I don't see CWS picking the rumored Bohm and Crawford package over Abreu + flotsam, even if they would presumably be flipping Bohm for younger players.
I'd say that the Orioles are a very real threat here, as they could put together a lot of permutations of young position players in or on the cusp of MLB. The Phillies less so. Am I missing any other potential buyers? The Mets, maybe? There just don't seem to be a ton of teams with excess MLB-ready position players who are also likely to make this kind of win-now move.
(Side note: if we are looking for a RHH 3B with Devers headed to DH... should we trade for Alec Bohm?!? He's 28, has two years of control left, has plenty of red on his Savant page, is RHH (with a mild split), and just had his first good season by the defensive stats. Send Abreu, Grissom/Hamilton, and Bleis/the Password to Chicago for Crochet; then send Kutter Crawford to Philly for Bohm and a couple younger prospects.)
The projections at Fangraphs think Crochet will be 2 wins better than Duran in 2025. Sure, 4 years of control is better than 2, but how good do you actually think Duran will be in 2027-28? I think most GMs would rather have Crochet. That said, it’s close enough that I think you could get the deal done by adding a prospect who isn’t one of our 4-5 blue-chippers.
If Bohm/Crawford is the best they can do, I think the White Sox will hold on to Crochet and see if anyone’s desperate at the deadline. But I don’t think that’s going to happen — they’ll get richer offers as the offseason progresses.
That's the opposite of what happened with Cease. They demanded outrageous returns (much like Abreu + Casas + Wong), everyone ignored them and built their rosters with more rational actors, they ran out of suitors to drive his price up and settled kinda sheepishly with SD in March. Did they learn anything? Who knows, it hasn't been an organization that exudes competence lately.
Exactly. The amnesia around here is crazy.
If that's what Chicago wants, just go spend on the bullpen and try to grab one of the premium starters. Say it with me: we don't need to send off our best players to get better.
Yep. Keeping Duran and paying Fried instead is much preferable to trading Duran for Crochet and then singing him to an extension for Fried-money.
Yes and no? I think I'd definitely rather have an extended Crochet age 26 than a Fried age 31, and we'll have more outfielders than we can play, so what's the best way of utilizing that excess?
The Padres gambled that Cease’s 2023 numbers were a product of bad luck. That was a good gamble ex ante and a great one ex post, but the White Sox seemed to expect the market to value Cease as though 2023 didn’t happen, which obviously was a mistake. I don’t expect the Crochet market to be similar because he’s a better pitcher, even if you don’t think he’s the Cy Young contender that his peripherals would suggest he is.
That would only "get close" to landing Crochet? LOL sure may as well throw in Mayer and Anthony. That should put them over the top.
... is he a better pitcher? I mean, purely on peripherals from last year, yeah. But one of these guys has pitched 200 innings year-in, year-out, and the other guy hasn't been able to stay on the mound. One guy has pitched 180 innings plus several years straight, the other hasn't pitched more than 150 ever. Crochet just hasn't shown he can hold up yet.
That has to factor into their valuations and their trade value. It just does.
Cease averaged 175 innings in his three full seasons with the White Sox, and hit 180 only once, but I agree with your broader point. Cease’s track record was three seasons of never missing a start with a 3.40 FIP. It’s arguable that Crochet is better, but not obvious.
From everything I’ve read this offseason, it sounds like Abreu is undervalued. Casas too, though that’s more understandable — given his recent injury, I’d be leery if I were a rival GM and the Sox were suddenly shopping him after he was (I assume) pretty much untouchable a year ago.
Bowden is an idiot, but in this case I think the problem is more that he’s proposing that we sell low on two of our good, young players, as opposed to misreading where the market is on Crochet.
Whoever gives him $80 million plus draft pick and pool money is going to regret it pretty soon. Tantalizing stuff, ultimately doesn’t add up to actual above average results.
I really don't mean to jump on you again, but there's truth in here but also some misperceptions.
Crochet got drafted in the first round in June 2020, three months later he was in the bigs, in the bullpen. He has had some injury issues since then, but also CHW never gave him a chance to be in the rotation until last year. It's pretty similar to Michael King and the Yankees (also traded with two years of control left), a reliever for multiple years who turned into a dominant SP when given a chance.
This argues that they should hold on to him til summer. Right now the suggested pricing (bowden, etc) is based on a lot of projection, which someone may buy, and it may work, but there is a lot of risk. If the ChiSox believe in him, they could give him 10-12 starts and then start the bidding at 3 guys between MLB/top prospects.
I think they think he has shown enough already last season given his pedigree (high first round pick) and his stuff (I can't find it now but I am pretty sure I remember seeing Eno Sarris ranking his stuff in the top few in all of MLB). They will almost certainly move him this winter for the most that they can get and I think it will be more than people here generally think he's worth (and people here might be right, we'll see).
Here it is, 2nd behind Skenes and ahead of deGrom:
View: https://twitter.com/enosarris/status/1854964282468745425
View: https://twitter.com/enosarris/status/1854964282468745425
Totally correct. Not good posting on my part.
Not jumping on me at all. This is completely fair. I think I would still argue that Crochet hasn't shown he can hold up over a full season's workload, but that doesn't mean he can't. I just think any team acquiring him has to wonder if he can handle it and factor the possibility that 150 innings of elite production will be as good as it gets (which is still really valuable!).
No doubt whatsoever that stuffwise he's on another level (and Cease is really, really good).
The other thing is Duran going year to year at his age is remarkably team friendly.
And in case anyone wondered if Chicago is rethinking their plan of asking for the moon for anything remotely valuable, here's a GM quoted today about their ask for Luis Robert Jr:
"The guy is certainly intriguing," one GM said, “but they’ve got a really high price tag on him. You’ve got to hope he finally stays healthy and can be the player everyone envisioned all along. But the White Sox are acting like he’s some big star center fielder and are asking for your top prospects."
That's the same Robert Jr who just put up an 84 wrc+ with bad defense while striking out 33% of the time and only playing 100 games.
"The guy is certainly intriguing," one GM said, “but they’ve got a really high price tag on him. You’ve got to hope he finally stays healthy and can be the player everyone envisioned all along. But the White Sox are acting like he’s some big star center fielder and are asking for your top prospects."
That's the same Robert Jr who just put up an 84 wrc+ with bad defense while striking out 33% of the time and only playing 100 games.
Yeah, they seem to be very delusional. I read somewhere they plan to trade Crochet out of the league, as if they're going to be competitive anytime soon.
I think really highly of Perales. I do not want Boston in a bidding war against itself. Keeping Duran gives the Sox a bona-fide leadoff threat. I like that kind of player. I see a scenario of adding Fried, Scott and Soto via fa. Add a trade for Crochet or another good starter, or maybe win the battle for the Japanese kid. If it takes Duran for Crochet straight up I would do it grudgingly.
Sounds like Crochet is getting expensive... thoughts on Rosenthal's theory on a good match with Seattle - Casas for Woo? I am guessing it takes more than Casas. Woo was pretty good this last season - tossed 121 innings with good control and not a free agent until 2030. It shouldn't be our first move, but if we are adding a FA top line starter, this might be a good trade move.
Yeah, if that’s the price for Crochet, I thank them for their time and move on. However, I wonder if there is a permutation of a Crochet/Robert combo deal. I know they’d probably like to run separate processes for these guys but if Soto doesn’t work out, and the team is intent on moving Devers to 1B, it might make some sense as part of a series of moves.
Always ask for the moon, sun and stars, you may wind up with it. Probably not, but you may.