Hooking Crochet? Rumors of Red Sox "right in the thick of" trying to trade for him

[The Gray Eagle]

There's plenty of Crochet talk in other threads but these rumors seem like they are worth a thread of their own.

.
@Sean_McAdam spoke with someone who has knowledge of the White Sox thinking and the Red Sox are showing an increased interest in Garrett Crochet. “I think they’re right in the thick of things… They didn’t show as much interest (as others) at the trade deadline (last summer), but the interest has increased in the offseason and they’re sending the message: ‘We want to be involved in this, we want to be involved in these talks’ ” Didn’t shutdown the idea of Wilyer Abreu headlining a package for him. Kutter Crawford being involved as well. Seems like it’s pretty clear Roman Anthony is untouchable too.

View: https://twitter.com/tylermilliken_/status/1854879286789914849

McAdam article:
https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2024/11/mlb-notebook-source-red-sox-right-in-the-thick-of-garrett-crochet-talks.html

Among the top starting pitchers being made available in deals is Chicago White Sox lefty Garrett Crochet, and it shouldn’t surprise anyone that the Red Sox are being considered major players for his services.
“I think they’re right in the thick of things,” said a baseball person with knowledge of the White Sox’ thinking. “It will come down to (what they’re willing to offer), but from a talent standpoint, they match up well. They didn’t show as much interest (as others) at the trade deadline (last summer), but the interest has increased in the offseason and they’re sending the message: ‘We want to be involved in this, we want to be involved in these talks.’
“I definitely think they’re one of five or so teams that are legitimate, real teams that match up prospect-wise.”

Other teams who are expected to be part of the bidding include Baltimore, San Diego and the Los Angeles Dodgers. It’s likely other teams will emerge as the talks intensify, especially those who operating under a “win now” directive.

As for the Mets and Red Sox, with Roman Anthony reportedly off-the-table, the Red Sox could turn to shortstop Marcelo Mayer or outfielder Braden Montgomery as potential headliners in a deal. Mayer, 21, hit .307/.370/.480 in Double-A this season while seeing improvements in both his walk and strikeout rates at that level from the previous season. However, he has a concerning injury history that has limited him to about 70 games each year in both 2023 and 2024.

Crochet, 25, missed the entire 2022 season due to Tommy John surgery and made just 13 appearances in 2023. Finally healthy in 2024, the left-hander completed his first full season as a starter. He quickly established himself as one of the best pitchers in the game, notching All-Star honors after a strong first half in which he led all of Major League Baseball in strikeouts (150), K/9 (12.6), and fWAR (3.9). He finished the season with a 3.58 ERA, 209 strikeouts, 2.69 FIP, and 1.068 WHIP over a career-high 146 innings thrown.

Olney names Red Sox and Mets as 2 teams in on Crochet:

ICYMI the Baseball Tonight podcast, here are Mets-related notes: -Garrett Crochet: "I think it's a slam dunk he's going to be traded and the two teams I'm watching are the Red Sox & Mets." (Buster Olney) -Garrett Crochet: "Teams that are trying to acquire him know he will sign an extension." (Jeff Passan)

View: https://twitter.com/mikemayer22/status/1854554362166607932


Tomase says Red Sox are very much in the mix for Crochet, repeating the McAdam report as his source:
https://www.nbcsportsboston.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/garrett-crochet-trade-rumors-white-sox/664919/

Speaking to reporters at the GM meetings this week in San Antonio, White Sox GM Chris Getz laid out what Chicago expects to receive as it begins the sport's most daunting rebuild.
"We are focusing on position player return," Getz said, per McAdam. "That is our primary focus in any trade talks. The right players have to be there. We can't force anything. We certainly need to improve our offense. That is very clear."

 

[DeadlySplitter]

I'm not sure it will happen, but it seems like the opening is there to perhaps not give up any pitching (other than a major leaguer who may have hit his ceiling, like Kutter Crawford) and none of the Big 4 and acquire him. He has warts but the relatively modest cost is attractive.

I would be uncomfortable putting Mayer or Teel in such a package for him, personally.

 

[nattysez]

I assume this will require a Sale-level payout, but a little sweeter because Crochet has two years of control left. Something like Mayer, Perales, Grissom and Fitts -- maybe more. Recall that the Sale trade was: Moncada, Kopech, Luis Alexander Basabe, and Victor Diaz.

 

[Devizier]

I assume this will require a Sale-level payout, but a little sweeter because Crochet has two years of control left. Something like Mayer, Perales, Grissom and Fitts -- maybe more. Recall that the Sale trade was: Moncada, Kopech, Luis Alexander Basabe, and Victor Diaz.

The Sox had two club options on Sale, which they exercised for 2018 and 2019.

Here's what was written about his extension (with the White Sox):

Sale will be paid $850,000 in 2013, $3.5 million in 2014, $6.0 million in 2015, $9.15 million in 2016 and $12 million in 2017. The White Sox hold options for 2018 at $12.5 million and for 2019 at $13.5 million. If either option is declined, Sale will receive a $1.0-million buyout.

I would argue that Sale was also more valuable, with five years of all-star level play when the Sox traded for him (2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016).

 

[TapeAndPosts]

When the Sox traded for Sale, he was a 5-time All Star who had just thrown more innings in 2016 (226.2) than Crochet has thrown in his entire career (219.0). Crochet would be a nice get, but he's had one good year and nowhere near Sale's pedigree.

 

[moondog80]

I assume this will require a Sale-level payout, but a little sweeter because Crochet has two years of control left. Something like Mayer, Perales, Grissom and Fitts -- maybe more. Recall that the Sale trade was: Moncada, Kopech, Luis Alexander Basabe, and Victor Diaz.

Not even close. Sale had 6 straight years of garnering Cy Young votes and was signed for 3 years at money that was crazy cheap at the time. Crochet is under control for only 2 more years, and has had one good season where he got no Cy votes.

The comparison is the Dylan Cease trade. The best piece that came back was a lower-level top 100 prospect.

 

[Fishy1]

I assume this will require a Sale-level payout, but a little sweeter because Crochet has two years of control left. Something like Mayer, Perales, Grissom and Fitts -- maybe more. Recall that the Sale trade was: Moncada, Kopech, Luis Alexander Basabe, and Victor Diaz.

I think you're misremembering the Sale trade. He signed a 5 year, 32 million dollar contract with the White Sox in 2013 which included a club option for 2019. So when we traded for him, he had two years of control left at 12 million, along with a club option for 15 million in 2019. That's three years of control, which is more than Crochet has.

We then proceeded to sign him to an extension for 5/145 in March of 2019.



Now, Sale was already established as one of if not the best pitcher in baseball at that point. He'd already accumulated 35 fWAR (crude measure, I know). Crochet, on the other hand, has had this career so far:



So one year where he was a really good reliever, one year where he pitched 13 games, and one year where he was great (in 146 innings).

Upshot is I doubt Crochet commands the sort of deal that Sale did.

EDIT: several people got there first

 

[Daniel_Son]

Is anyone else a little concerned about how he'll profile at Fenway? From what I can see, he's pretty firmly a flyball pitcher, and 9% of hits he's allowed are barrels (league average is 7%). Now, granted, he does miss a hell of a lot of bats, but when he doesn't it seems to be pretty loud contact. I could definitely see some of those fly balls to left turning into home runs or doubles.

 

[E5 Yaz]

I think it's time ill-spent to come up with trade value "comps." Every deal is its own animal. The team that gets Crochet will be the one who best satisfies the requests of the White Sox -- regardless of how that equates to the packages for Sale, Cease or anyone else.

Here's Getz expressing the need for offense:
“We are focusing on position player return,” Getz said. “That is our primary focus in any trade talks. The right players have to be there. We can’t force anything. We certainly need to improve our offense. That is very clear.”

“You want to get the highest return for your club,” Getz said. “Some organizations’ top talent is much different than others. We have spent a lot of time and resources studying other teams' farm systems."
https://www.audacy.com/670thescore/sports/chicago-white-sox/white-sox-seeking-position-players-in-garrett-crochet-trade-talks

What that says (to me, at least) is that they want to improve their offense as quickly as possible -- which means current major leaguers and/or those ready to break into the major leagues.

Tossing them one bat and a few lottery tickets isn't likely to get the job done

 

[YTF]

I assume this will require a Sale-level payout, but a little sweeter because Crochet has two years of control left. Something like Mayer, Perales, Grissom and Fitts -- maybe more. Recall that the Sale trade was: Moncada, Kopech, Luis Alexander Basabe, and Victor Diaz.

Sale at the time of that deal and Crochet currently aren't comparable players.

 

[Skyhawk96]

I would be curious if they were to swing a deal for Crochet if they would try and extend him prior to the start of the season given the high level prospects it would take to land him. Maybe buy-out his last two arb. years and two more after that. I know the Sale trade and ultimate extension is a cautionary tale, but it would be nice to have Crochet in the fold for more than 2-years.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

I want no part of this guy if it takes any of our top 6 or so prospects or significant MLB talent. He’s basically a long reliever, goes 3-4 innings per start, and got knocked around quite a bit in the second half.

Before the trading deadline, he came out and said he would NOT pitch in the postseason if traded, unless given a long term contract. That’s a huge red flag to me.

I’m not very impressed with him, and would rather go after Fried, and maybe Flaherty or something. If we must trade, maybe something with Seattle.

My gut says Crochet is a disaster waiting to happen.

 

[Cassvt2023]

I think it's time ill-spent to come up with trade value "comps." Every deal is its own animal. The the team that gets Crochet will be the one who best satisfies the requests of the White Sox -- regardless of how that equates to the packages for Sale, Cease or anyone else.

Here's Getz expressing the need for offense:
“We are focusing on position player return,” Getz said. “That is our primary focus in any trade talks. The right players have to be there. We can’t force anything. We certainly need to improve our offense. That is very clear.”

“You want to get the highest return for your club,” Getz said. “Some organizations’ top talent is much different than others. We have spent a lot of time and resources studying other teams' farm systems."
https://www.audacy.com/670thescore/sports/chicago-white-sox/white-sox-seeking-position-players-in-garrett-crochet-trade-talks

What that says (to me, at least) is that they want to improve their offense as quickly as possible -- which means current major leaguers and/or those ready to break into the major leagues.

Tossing them one bat and a few lottery tickets isn't likely to get the job done

These quotes to me sound like they probably want at least 1 from each of these groups:

Duran, Abreu, Casas, Grissom

Anthony, Teel, Mayer, Campbell

Steep price to pay, but they have to at least ask.

 

[YTF]

One wild card in all of this is that we need to be mindful that Crochet wants an extension, so in addition this all has to be agreed upon as well as the package going back to Chicago.

 

[chrisfont9]

Not even close. Sale had 6 straight years of garnering Cy Young votes and was signed for 3 years at money that was crazy cheap at the time. Crochet is under control for only 2 more years, and has had one good season where he got no Cy votes.

The comparison is the Dylan Cease trade. The best piece that came back was a lower-level top 100 prospect.

Yeah, although the market for a single person is always a prisoner of the moment. Cease was at a higher level, but the trade happened in March, which might have lessened the cost some?

 

[Cassvt2023]

I want no part of this guy if it takes any of our top 6 or so prospects or significant MLB talent. He’s basically a long reliever, goes 3-4 innings per start, and got knocked around quite a bit in the second half.

Before the trading deadline, he came out and said he would NOT pitch in the postseason if traded, unless given a long term contract. That’s a huge red flag to me.

I’m not very impressed with him, and would rather go after Fried, and maybe Flaherty or something. If we must trade, maybe something with Seattle.

My gut says Crochet is a disaster waiting to happen.

This is where you have to put your faith in the B's (Breslow, Bailey, Boddy) to evaluate properly.

 

[tims4wins]

I want no part of this guy if it takes any of our top 6 or so prospects or significant MLB talent. He’s basically a long reliever, goes 3-4 innings per start, and got knocked around quite a bit in the second half.

Before the trading deadline, he came out and said he would NOT pitch in the postseason if traded, unless given a long term contract. That’s a huge red flag to me.

I’m not very impressed with him, and would rather go after Fried, and maybe Flaherty or something. If we must trade, maybe something with Seattle.

My gut says Crochet is a disaster waiting to happen.

I can't say I paid any attention to the White Sox, but he had never pitched more than 54 innings in a season, and then as of the end of June was already over 100. Were the White Sox managing his innings? His pitches per start drastically decreased after that point. He was at 89 pitches per start, then he only averaged about 58 over his last dozen starts.

As for getting knocked around... yeah, a bit, but he also had a 3.58 FIP with a 59:10 K:BB ratio in his final 38 innings.

Edit: he was averaging close to 6IP / start through June

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I like the Red Sox chances here given those quotes from Getz. He seems in way over his head- the ChiSox just had one of the worst seasons in history and he’s already narrowed the focus of what he’s looking for in trades to major league ready position players? Chicago was last in runs scored, and also last in runs allowed. They are going to be terrible next year no matter what- they should be looking for the biggest and best package they can get regardless of position. They need help everywhere.

 

[RedOctober3829]

I would be curious if they were to swing a deal for Crochet if they would try and extend him prior to the start of the season given the high level prospects it would take to land him. Maybe buy-out his last two arb. years and two more after that. I know the Sale trade and ultimate extension is a cautionary tale, but it would be nice to have Crochet in the fold for more than 2-years.

If you're going after Crochet, if they don't have to do an extension as part of the deal then I would not do so. Keep him at cheap money and then go out and sign Burnes or Fried. Use his cheap control as an asset and really build the rotation. See how Crochet does, how he holds up, and then if he's worthy of a long extension then cross that bridge when we get there.

 

[E5 Yaz]

See how Crochet does, how he holds up, and then if he's worthy of a long extension then cross that bridge when we get there.

The issue here -- and I'm not saying you're wrong -- is in what you give up for two years from a pitcher who could then walk. It's a fine line of evaluation as to whether it will be worth trading off position players with more years under control.
This is especially true, as you note, when dealing with a pitcher who is just now transitioning to a starter on the major league level.

 

[BigSoxFan]

The issue here -- and I'm not saying you're wrong -- is in what you give up for two years from a pitcher who could then walk. It's a fine line of evaluation as to whether it will be worth trading off position players with more years under control.
This is especially true, as you note, when dealing with a pitcher who is just now transitioning to a starter on the major league level.

Agreed. I don’t think you complete this trade unless you have some level of comfort that he is, in fact, a reliable SP. It’s not like they’d be acquiring him at a discount. It’s going to take Abreu+, Mayer+, etc. to get him. You’d never trade those packages for someone who may just be a really good long reliever.

 

[GaryPeters71]

The White Sox may want younger prospects from Boston - such as Braden Montgomery, Franklin Arias, and Miguel Bleis - since Chicago has a longer timetable to rebuild and compete.

 

[YTF]

I want no part of this guy if it takes any of our top 6 or so prospects or significant MLB talent. He’s basically a long reliever, goes 3-4 innings per start, and got knocked around quite a bit in the second half.

Before the trading deadline, he came out and said he would NOT pitch in the postseason if traded, unless given a long term contract. That’s a huge red flag to me.

I’m not very impressed with him, and would rather go after Fried, and maybe Flaherty or something. If we must trade, maybe something with Seattle.

My gut says Crochet is a disaster waiting to happen.

IIRC, the reason he was pitching so few innings per start down the stretch was that he was on an innings limit for the season and this allowed him to make more starts, which benefitted the White Sox as it allowed them to show him off to potential trade partners rather than to shut him down. As far as his statement about pitching in the postseason... On the surface it looks pretty shitty and I was right there with you at first, but he was on a limit during the regular season for a reason and took the position that if was was going to be asked to risk his future he wanted to be compensated for it and I have to say I'm OK with that because Chicago or the potential playoff contender interested had their own nterests.

 

[nvalvo]

Is anyone else a little concerned about how he'll profile at Fenway? From what I can see, he's pretty firmly a flyball pitcher, and 9% of hits he's allowed are barrels (league average is 7%). Now, granted, he does miss a hell of a lot of bats, but when he doesn't it seems to be pretty loud contact. I could definitely see some of those fly balls to left turning into home runs or doubles.

View attachment 91495

The case for Crochet comes down to the strikeout/walk ratio. Elite 12.9 K/9, also elite 2.0 BB/9.

He throws an above average number of strikes and first-pitch strikes. He gets more swinging strikes and fewer called strikes than average. Hitters swing more often than average both in and out of the zone and make contact less often than average both in and out of the zone.

He's around the zone a ton, and hitters are swinging, and yeah, some of the pitches get hit. But he walks so few that it's really about serial offense against him, and that's tough to maintain against a guy who is striking out 35% of the hitters he's facing.

If we can get this dude for Abreu and Crawford we should be all over that. If we can then also sign one of the better FA pitchers (Fried, say), we will be in really good shape with the rotation.

 

[nvalvo]

If you're going after Crochet, if they don't have to do an extension as part of the deal then I would not do so. Keep him at cheap money and then go out and sign Burnes or Fried. Use his cheap control as an asset and really build the rotation. See how Crochet does, how he holds up, and then if he's worthy of a long extension then cross that bridge when we get there.

I would say that this really depends on what he wants in an extension.

 

[YTF]

The White Sox may want younger prospects from Boston - such as Braden Montgomery, Franklin Arias, and Miguel Bleis - since Chicago has a longer timetable to rebuild and compete.

They still need to field a team and sell tickets between now and then.

 

[moondog80]

The White Sox may want younger prospects from Boston - such as Braden Montgomery, Franklin Arias, and Miguel Bleis - since Chicago has a longer timetable to rebuild and compete.

I thought that too. But maybe they look at KC and think that they can turn it around without sucking for 5 years?

 

[Sox Pride]

Is anyone else a little concerned about how he'll profile at Fenway? From what I can see, he's pretty firmly a flyball pitcher, and 9% of hits he's allowed are barrels (league average is 7%). Now, granted, he does miss a hell of a lot of bats, but when he doesn't it seems to be pretty loud contact. I could definitely see some of those fly balls to left turning into home runs or doubles.

View attachment 91495

I'm not that concerned when he's pitching. His stuff is excellent. I'm far more concerned about injury history and the fact that he's only been a starter for half a year.
I wouldn't mind getting him, but I wouldn't want to break the bank for him.

 

[Trapaholic]

The White Sox are in a tough spot, obviously. To make matters worse, they won't have a lottery pick next year because they are one of the revenue "giving" teams.

The Red Sox could part with Wilyer (which would be tough, I love watching him play) and a couple of prospects who are under 21 years old. Maybe it's something like a major league player and 2 or 3 of the following: Cespedes, Bleis, Arias, Juan Valera.

It would hurt to part with these guys, but I am hoping the Red Sox are full steam ahead with their drafting and development program and have the ability to backfill the prospects that get moved.

Pretty risky, but he is 26 years old. These are the type of guys that they should absolutely be in on given his age.

 

[Fishy1]

These quotes to me sound like they probably want at least 1 from each of these groups:

Duran, Abreu, Casas, Grissom

Anthony, Teel, Mayer, Campbell

Steep price to pay, but they have to at least ask.

If they want one of each group, we should tell them to pound sand, because that's ridiculous. They'll get a return comparable to what they got for Dylan Cease, and they'll have to like it.

The White Sox may want younger prospects from Boston - such as Braden Montgomery, Franklin Arias, and Miguel Bleis - since Chicago has a longer timetable to rebuild and compete.

Sounds like from the above quotes that @E5 Yaz has laid out, they want major league ready position players. But this "we want bats" thing is also obviously posturing. They're going to start with an asking price of a guy like Wilyer because he's already a good player, and the Red Sox are going to counter with one of their more fungible guys. Both sides know that this isn't Sale, or even Cease, where there's a substantial track record of success.

I know every deal is different, but there's also plenty of precedent for this sort of deal, and it's almost always one guy who's almost major league ready, and then a bunch of lottery tickets. We all thought Cease would command a huge package--it didn't end up being like that at all. CWS got one excellent pitching prospect in Thorpe, a lottery ticket who hasn't hit at all (think Miguel Bleis), a Wikelman Gonzalez type, and a mediocre relief pitcher.

If we send over Kutter AND Abreu, I'll be kind of shocked. I still think Mayer, Bleis, Wikelman/Monegro/Perales, and, like, Zack Kelly, is the most likely thing. Or substitute Meidroth or maybe even Hamilton for Bleis if Chicago insists they want a guy who is ready.

It's worth remembering that Chicago, while they're under pressure to get better, are in a tough spot. They need good players really badly, but if they insist on rookie of the year candidates and proven major league pitchers, pretty much everyone will look at them and say "hmm, no, we're just going to spend money" or "we're going to trade for somebody who isn't so expensive" rather than make a trade where they give up super cheap major league talent. Trading Abreu and Kutter sets us back for next year even if Crochet improves our pitching staff's upside because now we have no safety net if Roman Anthony and Campbell struggle.

 

[YTF]

The White Sox are in a tough spot, obviously. To make matters worse, they won't have a lottery pick next year because they are one of the revenue "giving" teams.

The Red Sox could part with Wilyer (which would be tough, I love watching him play) and a couple of prospects who are under 21 years old. Maybe it's something like a major league player and 2 or 3 of the following: Cespedes, Bleis, Arias, Juan Valera.

It would hurt to part with these guys, but I am hoping the Red Sox are full steam ahead with their drafting and development program and have the ability to backfill the prospects that get moved.

It would hurt to part with these guys....

You're going to have to part with someone if you're looking to make a trade and there isn't room for all of these guys in the organization. This is a position we've been waiting to be in. If you prefer another player to Crochet, that's cool but either way several players are going back the other way.

 

[chrisfont9]

I can't say I paid any attention to the White Sox, but he had never pitched more than 54 innings in a season, and then as of the end of June was already over 100. Were the White Sox managing his innings? His pitches per start drastically decreased after that point. He was at 89 pitches per start, then he only averaged about 58 over his last dozen starts.

As for getting knocked around... yeah, a bit, but he also had a 3.58 FIP with a 59:10 K:BB ratio in his final 38 innings.

Edit: he was averaging close to 6IP / start through June

It also explains the comments about not pitching in the postseason, he was worried about the risk of overuse. This is tantamount to his free agency, worsened by playing for a non-functioning team, so it's what you would do to preserve your big payday. Maybe he's just a jerk who doesn't like winning, but then again they can just ask Giolito about that.

 

[Sin Duda]

I'd like people to remember what Breslow got from ONE guaranteed season of Alex Verdugo in a trade with a GM who wins more trades than he loses. Verdugo returned a competent Bullpen swingman (Weissert), a good Starter now at AAA (Fitts), and a lottery ticket Starter at A (Judice). Crochet might be the new hot chick, but Breslow is NOT trading any key MLB player nor one of the big 4. And it won't be a 5 for 1 trade either. I'm thinking something like Abreu + Mikey Romero. Crochet is better than that package from NYY, but Abreu is twice the player Verdugo is, has a much better attitude and aptitude, and is controlled for 5 seasons. We've often been guilty around here of proposing 3 nickels for a quarter trades, but maybe we've swung too far to the other side. Let's see what Breslow does.

 

[flymrfreakjar]

I would give up quite a lot for this guy.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I'm not that concerned when he's pitching. His stuff is excellent. I'm far more concerned about injury history and the fact that he's only been a starter for half a year.
I wouldn't mind getting him, but I wouldn't want to break the bank for him.

This is where I'm at. Not so much concerned about injury history so much as his lack of history as a starter. The fact that he was on a pitch/innings limit in the second half last season was totally understandable but also a bit of a red flag. It's weird to me that he's such an in-demand guy right now when he's effectively Tanner Houck from about 12 months ago. Only Houck actually had been a starter most of his career to that point. I'm not sure that's a guy I pay a heavy ransom for with the hopes/expectations he's going to be a high-volume, ace-type guy.

For the right deal, absolutely, bring him on. Don't overpay for him. I've seen elsewhere the idea of Abreu for Crochet straight up. That seems right. Maybe throw in a prospect from outside the top 10.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

I'd like people to remember what Breslow got from ONE guaranteed season of Alex Verdugo in a trade with a GM who wins more trades than he loses. Verdugo returned a competent Bullpen swingman (Weissert), a good Starter now at AAA (Fitts), and a lottery ticket Starter at A (Judice). Crochet might be the new hot chick, but Breslow is NOT trading any key MLB player nor one of the big 4. And it won't be a 5 for 1 trade either. I'm thinking something like Abreu + Mikey Romero. Crochet is better than that package from NYY, but Abreu is twice the player Verdugo is, has a much better attitude and aptitude, and is controlled for 5 seasons. We've often been guilty around here of proposing 3 nickels for a quarter trades, but maybe we've swung too far to the other side. Let's see what Breslow does.

I think Abreu, Grissom, and Bleis probably gets it done and it’s most likely something I’d be behind IF……

They are going to also supplement the roster with significant free agent signings.

 

[Scoops Bolling]

The White Sox aren't as talent barren as they're being made out to be, the bigger issue for them remains their inability to actually develop and capitalize on that talent. They have a bunch of young hitting. Quero I think is one of the more underrated prospects in baseball, and has said his goal is to break camp as the Sox's catcher. Montgomery went sideways this year, but remains a high ceiling SS prospect. Bryan Ramos has the potential to be a good 3B. There's a gaggle of 2B, Lenyn Sosa probably being best but Baldwin and Vargas are there too. Add in Noah Schultz and Hagen Smith both coming soon, on top of guys like Thorpe, Cannon, etc., who have already arrived, and the White Sox may be thinking "we've got a bunch of cheap young guys, we just need a bit more talent and another year for the rest of the guys to arrive".

To be clear, I am not saying I agree with this analysis, but Reinsdorf being Reinfsdorf I could buy the delusion of thinking they're just a couple of pieces away.

 

[Cassvt2023]

I'd like people to remember what Breslow got from ONE guaranteed season of Alex Verdugo in a trade with a GM who wins more trades than he loses. Verdugo returned a competent Bullpen swingman (Weissert), a good Starter now at AAA (Fitts), and a lottery ticket Starter at A (Judice). Crochet might be the new hot chick, but Breslow is NOT trading any key MLB player nor one of the big 4. And it won't be a 5 for 1 trade either. I'm thinking something like Abreu + Mikey Romero. Crochet is better than that package from NYY, but Abreu is twice the player Verdugo is, has a much better attitude and aptitude, and is controlled for 5 seasons. We've often been guilty around here of proposing 3 nickels for a quarter trades, but maybe we've swung too far to the other side. Let's see what Breslow does.

This seems accurate. I'd hate to lose Abreu, but you have to give to get, and he has the most big league ready replacement in Anthony, who by all accounts hits LHP better.

Something like Abreu and their choice of Romero, Cespedes or Arias.

 

[nvalvo]

he's effectively Tanner Houck from about 12 months ago

Tanner Houck 12 months ago was 27 and had thrown 252 IP with a FIP of 3.47 and ERA+ of 118 across four seasons (104 G, 71 GS). He also couldn't get LH hitters out; the development of his split into a plus pitch changed that, but that happened last offseason.

Garret Crochet now is 25 and has thrown 219 IP with a FIP of 2.69 and ERA+ of 128 across four seasons (104 G, 32 GS). He has minimal platoon splits.

 

[Auger34]

I think Abreu, Grissom, and Bleis probably gets it done and it’s most likely something I’d be behind IF……

They are going to also supplement the roster with significant free agent signings.

Sub out Grissom with 2 prospects in the 15-25 range (Allan Castro and Wikelman Gonzalez?) and I think that's basically what the package is. Maybe Romero instead of Bleis too

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Tanner Houck 12 months ago was 27 and had thrown 252 IP with a FIP of 3.47 and ERA+ of 118 across four seasons (104 G, 71 GS). He also couldn't get LH hitters out; the development of his split into a plus pitch changed that, but that happened last offseason.

Garret Crochet now is 25 and has thrown 219 IP with a FIP of 2.69 and ERA+ of 128 across four seasons (104 G, 32 GS). He has minimal platoon splits.

I was strictly referring to ability to give innings. Last year at this time, Houck was coming off his first MLB season (and first time in five years overall) over 20 starts/100 innings and there were folks here saying he should be the closer in 2024 because they didn't think he could handle a starter's load. Now we're all gung-ho about a guy who had never exceeded 100 innings in a season at any level until this season coming in to be the potential ace of the staff, and paying a 3-for-1 or 4-for-1 trade package not to mention an extension to get him? Sorry if I think the prices being discussed are a bit too high for my taste.

 

[nvalvo]

who by all accounts hits LHP better

Anthony against LHP, by year:

2022, 2 PA A: .000/.000/.000 (b-ref doesn't have platoon splits for his FCL time).
2023, 82 PA A+/AA: .219/.378/.375
2024, 116 PA AA/AAA: .316/.414/.490

It's not uncommon for LH hitters drafted out of HS to reduce their split with experience, in part because they get many more looks against talented same-hand pitchers in pro ball than they did in HS, even guys like Anthony who was on all the showcase circuits. The NCAA guys are obviously much more experienced.

 

[Cassvt2023]

Sub out Grissom with 2 prospects in the 15-25 range (Allan Castro and Wikelman Gonzalez?) and I think that's basically what the package is. Maybe Romero instead of Bleis too

If the White Sox are looking for players either MLB ready or close, rather than our guys that are still 3-4 years away, maybe something like Abreu, Romero (or Meidroth, whoever they like better) and Hunter Dobbins. Too much? Too little?

 

[RedOctober3829]

If the White Sox are looking for players either MLB ready or close, rather than our guys that are still 3-4 years away, maybe something like Abreu, Romero (or Meidroth, whoever they like better) and Hunter Dobbins. Too much? Too little?

I think our system is at the point the Yankees system was a couple of years ago and may still be. I don't think the Red Sox have to part with a big-time prospect package to get Crochet. I think prospects 6-10 are just as good as a lot of team's 1-5 plus they have young major league ready talent with years of control to offer as well. As one AL executive said recently, the Red Sox could literally trade for anyone in baseball right now if they wanted to. I don't think a Crochet deal would absolutely hurt the farm system. I've thought about my position on acquiring starting pitching and have changed my stance a bit. I think trading for a player like Crochet and signing a top level FA is the way to go and they have the money/assets to do so.

 

[BringBackMo]

The case for Crochet comes down to the strikeout/walk ratio. Elite 12.9 K/9, also elite 2.0 BB/9.

He throws an above average number of strikes and first-pitch strikes. He gets more swinging strikes and fewer called strikes than average. Hitters swing more often than average both in and out of the zone and make contact less often than average both in and out of the zone.

He's around the zone a ton, and hitters are swinging, and yeah, some of the pitches get hit. But he walks so few that it's really about serial offense against him, and that's tough to maintain against a guy who is striking out 35% of the hitters he's facing.

If we can get this dude for Abreu and Crawford we should be all over that. If we can then also sign one of the better FA pitchers (Fried, say), we will be in really good shape with the rotation.

Good post. In terms of signing an additional pitcher, do you prefer Fried to Burnes? Or is that factoring in salaries (assumed Crochet extension) given the uncertainty about how much payroll the Sox will take on?

 

[nvalvo]

The White Sox basically have to trade Crochet — it would be so risky to hold on to him in their position — so I'd judge that the return will depend on what other teams are offering.

They say they want MLB-ready position players, and that makes sense to me. After the Cease trade and the deadline, they actually have a very deep farm system with five or six guys on most top-100s. Fangraphs has our farm system 3rd and theirs 4th, up from 27th eighteen months ago.

We are in a good position because the group of Abreu, Hamilton, and Grissom are all guys who could be described as starting-quality position players in MLB but whom we could afford to move because we have their replacements in the high minors.

If I'm running the White Sox, I think I would ask Breslow for two high-floor big leaguers and two upside guys from the low minors: call it Abreu, Hamilton, and two very far-off high ceiling guys, maybe Yoelin Cespedes and the giant 1B in the DSL, Justin Gonzales. The goal is to not play Zach DeLoach and Lenyn Sosa unless, like, everybody's hurt.

L Hamilton 2B
R Vargas 3B
L Benintendi LF
R Robert Jr. CF
L Abreu RF
R Vaughn 1B
L Sheets DH
R Lee C
L Lopez SS

That looks like a lineup that could win you 65 next year.

They should have an okay young rotation, too, led by the guys they got back for Cease, Thorpe and Iriarte, with Noah Schultz not far behind.

 

[Cassvt2023]

The White Sox basically have to trade Crochet — it would be so risky to hold on to him in their position — so I'd judge that the return will depend on what other teams are offering.

They say they want MLB-ready position players, and that makes sense to me. After the Cease trade and the deadline, they actually have a very deep farm system with five or six guys on most top-100s. Fangraphs has our farm system 3rd and theirs 4th, up from 27th eighteen months ago.

We are in a good position because the group of Abreu, Hamilton, and Grissom are all guys who could be described as starting-quality position players in MLB but whom we could afford to move because we have their replacements in the high minors.

If I'm running the White Sox, I think I would ask Breslow for two high-floor big leaguers and two upside guys from the low minors: call it Abreu, Hamilton, and two very far-off high ceiling guys, maybe Yoelin Cespedes and the giant 1B in the DSL, Justin Gonzales. The goal is to not play Zach DeLoach and Lenyn Sosa unless, like, everybody's hurt.

L Hamilton 2B
R Vargas 3B
L Benintendi LF
R Robert Jr. CF
L Abreu RF
R Vaughn 1B
L Sheets DH
R Lee C
L Lopez SS

That looks like a lineup that could win you 65 next year.

They should have an okay young rotation, too, led by the guys they got back for Cease, Thorpe and Iriarte, with Noah Schultz not far behind.

I can't speak to the IF D, because I don't follow them closely, but that is a pretty good defensive OF.

 

[simplicio]

Robert Jr. was actually subpar defensively this season, and Benintendi has been a train wreck out there for a couple years now.

But Abreu would be good!

 

[cantor44]

I dunno. Why trade top prospect assets when you can just buy a guy or two? I can understand dealing Abreu because of the coming redundancy. Or maybe Grissom, with the coming redundancy. But any of the big four for a pitcher who's had one good year? I dunno. There are several very good pitchers there for the taking if you're aggressive enough and you don't need to let go of a prime prospect. If there were no other lanes to get a guy, more compelling to trade, but there are very good FA options.

 

[nvalvo]

I can't speak to the IF D, because I don't follow them closely, but that is a pretty good defensive OF.

The key is to not let Gavin Sheets play the field in any capacity.

Good post. In terms of signing an additional pitcher, do you prefer Fried to Burnes? Or is that factoring in salaries (assumed Crochet extension) given the uncertainty about how much payroll the Sox will take on?

I have no strong preference between Burnes and Fried. Maybe I lean Burnes, just because he's a year younger and built like Jon Lester so I expect him to age well. Fried's ground ball tendencies seem like a good fit for a division with a lot of hitters' parks. Both of them seem like really good pitchers.

But the estimates seem to suggest that journalists think Fried can be had for 4-5 years instead of 6-7 at similar AAVs, and that is just a lot less risky IMO.