Hooking Crochet? 12/8 update: Rumors of Red Sox "just on the periphery," "not aggressors at all" at this point.

[Mugsy's Jock]

Ian Cundall has mentioned on more than one SoxProspects podcast that he think the trade price for Crochet would be more than one of five players among Casas, Anthony, Mayer, Campbell and Teel. While MLB trades may not be his core competency, I find Cundall really well-informed and reasonable.

So this thread's dreams of pulling something off without dipping into the big four or Casas or Duran might be optimistic. But as mentioned above, all that really matters is what some other team will put on the table and topping that. Don't have to be faster than the bear, just faster than the next guy.

 

[Auger34]

Ian Cundall has mentioned on more than one SoxProspects podcast that he think the trade price for Crochet would be more than one of five players among Casas, Anthony, Mayer, Campbell and Teel. While MLB trades may not be his core competency, I find Cundall really well-informed and reasonable.

So this thread's dreams of pulling something off without dipping into the big four or Casas or Duran might be optimistic. But as mentioned above, all that really matters is what some other team will put on the table and topping that. Don't have to be faster than the bear, just faster than the next guy.

Really depends on what the White Sox think of Abreu. He could ostensibly be the replacement for one of those 5.

But it will probably be Abreu plus Bleis plus 2 other top 25 types.

 

[Mugsy's Jock]

Really depends on what the White Sox think of Abreu. He could ostensibly be the replacement for one of those 5.

But it will probably be Abreu plus Bleis plus 2 other top 25 types.

Cundall said Abreu wasn't going to be enough to headline a package. He really thinks it would take two of the big six (the four WooSox and Casas/Duran).

Doesn't mean he's right, only time will tell.

 

[Auger34]

Cundall said Abreu wasn't going to be enough to headline a package. He really thinks it would take two of the big six (the four WooSox and Casas/Duran).

Doesn't mean he's right, only time will tell.

Wow. That's a lot.

I was fine with Mayer leading a package with like two other prospects in the 17-25 range. I think I am pretty firmly on the "no" side if it would take Abreu and Mayer. That's a hell of a lot

 

[moondog80]

Ian Cundall has mentioned on more than one SoxProspects podcast that he think the trade price for Crochet would be more than one of five players among Casas, Anthony, Mayer, Campbell and Teel. While MLB trades may not be his core competency, I find Cundall really well-informed and reasonable.

If that's the case, they don't get him. And that's OK. There are other options. BUT, they need to figure this out quickly and move onto option B, rather than stay in it until January, have the other options fall off the board, and get outbid.

 

[Eddie Bressoud]

Anyone know i the White Sox have a timeline for moving Crochet? I'm guessing at this point waiting only increases his value.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Anyone know i the White Sox have a timeline for moving Crochet? I'm guessing at this point waiting only increases his value.

The White Sox gain nothing setting a public timeline or deadline for getting a deal done, but teams that really want him probably prefer to get it done sooner than later. Their desperation will likely dictate the timeline more than the White Sox will. If I were to guess, it probably heats up at the winter meetings (second week of December) at the latest.

 

[Fishy1]

If they want Abreu AND Mayer for the control that Crochet has remaining... yeah, they're delusional. That's a rookie of the year candidate and a gold glover AND a top ten prospect in all of baseball who are BOTH pre-arb. Nobody is going to give them that, and if that's what they insist on, they're probably not going to get jack squat.

Silly season indeed. This sounds like a journalist speaking inadvertently as a mouthpiece for an organization.

 

[jon abbey]

If they want Abreu AND Mayer for the control that Crochet has remaining... yeah, they're delusional. That's a rookie of the year candidate and a gold glover AND a top ten prospect in all of baseball who are BOTH pre-arb. Nobody is going to give them that, and if that's what they insist on, they're probably not going to get jack squat.

Silly season indeed. This sounds like a journalist speaking inadvertently as a mouthpiece for an organization.

Corbin Burnes got two top 100 level prospects plus a compensation draft pick, and he was 29 with just one year of control.

I think Crochet would cost you guys two guys who hurt, otherwise someone else will bid more.

 

[Fishy1]

The White Sox gain nothing setting a public timeline or deadline for getting a deal done, but teams that really want him probably prefer to get it done sooner than later. Their desperation will likely dictate the timeline more than the White Sox will. If I were to guess, it probably heats up at the winter meetings (second week of December) at the latest.

I mean, maybe? But then again, Cease didn't get moved until March 13. San Diego was willing to wait them out, and nobody bettered that deal (which wasn't all that impressive) even though there's plenty of teams who could have used a guy like Cease.

And the list of suitors they'll have will diminish as other teams decide "well, I'll just spend money rather than emptying the cupboard for this one guy." As the various guys go off the board--Eovaldi, Martinez, Burnes, etc., the list of suitors for Crochet will shrink.

If I'm the White Sox, I don't want to wait too long. Because if you don't get the package you're hoping for by March, then you're looking at trading him in the middle of a season, where you might get an even smaller package than you would have in the offseason.

Lots to think about.

 

[Fishy1]

Corbin Burnes got two top 100 level prospects plus a compensation draft pick, and he was 29 with just one year of control.

I think Crochet would cost you guys two guys who hurt, otherwise someone else will bid more.

I see the comp, but I also don't see the comp.

Corbin Burnes had 3 straight years 150 innings (two of which approached or surpassed 200) under his belt of being one of the very best pitchers in baseball.

Crochet has one year starting, one year of relieving, and 2 years of being injured. Yes, he achieved bonkers peripherals, but he also only had a 3.58 ERA, and he got shelled in the second half despite averaging 3 innings, and all told didn't crack 150 innings.

Anybody looking to acquire him is going to be thinking that it's much easier to sustain a 13/2 K:BB ratio over a full season when you don't have to pitch to anyone the third time through the order.

I'm not saying it's impossible he'll be healthy going forward, just that that's going to affect anybody's valuation of the guy and what they're willing to send for him.

 

[jon abbey]

I see the comp, but I also don't see the comp.

Corbin Burnes had 3 straight years 150 innings (two of which approached or surpassed 200) under his belt of being one of the very best pitchers in baseball.

Crochet has one year starting, one year of relieving, and 2 years of being injured. Yes, he achieved bonkers peripherals, but he also only had a 3.58 ERA, and he got shelled in the second half despite averaging 3 innings, and all told didn't crack 150 innings.

Anybody looking to acquire him is going to be thinking that it's much easier to sustain a 13/2 K:BB ratio over a full season when you don't have to pitch to anyone the third time through the order.

I'm not saying it's impossible he'll be healthy going forward, just that that's going to affect anybody's valuation of the guy and what they're willing to send for him.

And he's four years younger with an extra year of control.

I'm not trying to make any real comparison, every case is different, but a Crochet trade will hurt. BOS has excess and can afford it if they want, but it will be painful if it happens.

 

[chrisfont9]

Wow. That's a lot.

I was fine with Mayer leading a package with like two other prospects in the 17-25 range. I think I am pretty firmly on the "no" side if it would take Abreu and Mayer. That's a hell of a lot

Hm, I hope that doesn't happen. Mayer's value shouldn't be diminished by early injuries beyond a thing to note. He's still slated to take over a key defensive position. We can deal OFs but once we get to Mayer I start thinking, maybe we should just sign two guys? My posts haven't been very consistent on this. But referring back to Cundall, after listening to their offseason preview pod, I'd rather trade Crawford from the back-of-the-rotation pile than Mayer. Crawford is a luxury as an SP4 or 5 but Crochet and presumably Giolito make Crawford expendable -- if we also sign a #1 aka Fried.

Hopefully the trade market goes slowly enough so that the Sox can decide on this after they know what the FA options are.

 

[finnVT]

Corbin Burnes got two top 100 level prospects plus a compensation draft pick, and he was 29 with just one year of control.

I think Crochet would cost you guys two guys who hurt, otherwise someone else will bid more.

Hall was #93 on BA's list and Ortiz wasn't in the top 100. MLB.com had Ortiz #63 but Hall unranked. YMMV on how to value the comp balance pick.

I think two fringe top 100 guys is a pretty reasonable comp. Meyer is #7 on MLB's list and #11 on MLB's. Reasonable minds can differ on how highly Abreu should be ranked, but the pair would almost certainly be significantly higher value than what Burnes fetched. Montgomery (#61 per BA) and Arias (#94) would be closer to the Burnes package.

 

[rodderick]

Abreu and Mayer comes pretty close (if not exceeds) to the Sale package in total value. No way am I doing that.

 

[Fishy1]

Hall was #93 on BA's list and Ortiz wasn't in the top 100. MLB.com had Ortiz #63 but Hall unranked. YMMV on how to value the comp balance pick.

I think two fringe top 100 guys is a pretty reasonable comp. Meyer is #7 on MLB's list and #11 on MLB's. Reasonable minds can differ on how highly Abreu should be ranked, but the pair would almost certainly be significantly higher value than what Burnes fetched. Montgomery (#61 per BA) and Arias (#94) would be closer to the Burnes package.

Thanks for the fact check. The "two top 100 guys" didn't pass the smell test.

Sale got the best prospect in baseball and another top 100 guy - but he was a consensus top pitcher with 3 years of control and a much longer track record.

 

[jon abbey]

Thanks for the fact check. The "two top 100 guys" didn't pass the smell test.

DL Hall was the #55 prospect in MLB according to BA in Jan 2023. As a comparison, Luis Gil also was no longer a top 100 prospect in 2024 but for similar reasons, he had trouble staying healthy and so got dropped off lists, but then he stayed healthy last year and lived up to his earlier prospect hype. Hall was certainly still a 'top 100 level prospect' as I said when dealt last winter, with close to full team control.

 

[GB5]

You trade Crawford every day of the week and twice on Sunday before moving Mayer. Their value on the market is not remotely equal.

 

[Mugsy's Jock]

Hall was #93 on BA's list and Ortiz wasn't in the top 100. MLB.com had Ortiz #63 but Hall unranked. YMMV on how to value the comp balance pick.

I think two fringe top 100 guys is a pretty reasonable comp. Meyer is #7 on MLB's list and #11 on MLB's. Reasonable minds can differ on how highly Abreu should be ranked, but the pair would almost certainly be significantly higher value than what Burnes fetched. Montgomery (#61 per BA) and Arias (#94) would be closer to the Burnes package.

Yeah, but... Ortiz and Hall were both ready or nearly ready to break into MLB. That's also the case with the Big Four plus Casas. Montgomery and Arias are both at least 2 and probably 3 years away.

Like @jon abbey posted, I expect a Crochet trade would hurt more than just Abreu and good filler (e.g. guys that haven't made it to Portland yet, or Crawford). Still think I'd consider Abreu+Mayer* and some of that filler, but that's as good as I think you could reasonably expect.

[Included Mayer more because of positional redundancy with Story/Campbell than the injury problem, but yeah, the injuries are a concern too.]

 

[finnVT]

Yeah, but... Ortiz and Hall were both ready or nearly ready to break into MLB. That's also the case with the Big Four plus Casas. Montgomery and Arias are both at least 2 and probably 3 years away.

Like @jon abbey posted, I expect a Crochet trade would hurt more than just Abreu and good filler (e.g. guys that haven't made it to Portland yet. Still think I'd consider Abreu/Mayer and some low level lotto tickets, but that's as good as I think you could hope for.

That's fine, I don't actually think Montgomery+Arias would get it done. My point was simply that there's a world of difference between fringe top 100 prospects and a consensus top 10-15 guy like Meyer. Looking at the Burnes trade and inferring it would take Meyer to get Crochet feels misguided to me.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

You trade Crawford every day of the week and twice on Sunday before moving Mayer. Their value on the market is not remotely equal.

Right. Problem is it's never going to be an either/or question with those two guys. There's no trade out there where you get to choose to include Crawford over Mayer and still get the same players in return.

 

[simplicio]

As far as valuing Crochet, I think it's somewhere between Glasnow (superior stuff, always broken) and Cease (two controlled years, younger).

I do think compared to those two trades the Burnes one looks like an outlier in terms of return.

On the other hand, Chicago spent most of last winter pricing themselves out of the market with outrageous demands for Cease before eventually settling on the much more reasonable deal they made with SD in March. Did they learn something or will they repeat that process? Who knows.

 

[Fishy1]

DL Hall was the #55 prospect in MLB according to BA in Jan 2023. As a comparison, Luis Gil also was no longer a top 100 prospect in 2024 but for similar reasons, he had trouble staying healthy and so got dropped off lists, but then he stayed healthy last year and lived up to his earlier prospect hype. Hall was certainly still a 'top 100 level prospect' as I said when dealt last winter, with close to full team control.

Regardless, Mayer, by comparison, is a consensus top 25 guy, and Abreu is a rookie of the year candidate. Mayer and Abreu blow the Burnes return out of the water because one of them has actually you know proven he can play in the major leagues, and the other is one of the very very very best prospects in all of baseball.

So it's only one year of Burnes.

Then let's look at the return the White Sox got for Cease last year for two years of control.

Drew Thorpe, a top 100 pitching prospect, ranked 85 by MLB and 58 by BA. Then two guys outside the top 100. Jairo Iriarte, a guy with great stuff and serious control problems (so, like, Wikelman Gonzalez), Samuel Zavala (a lottery ticket who just hit .187 in A+ ball), and Steven Wilson, who is like, the equivalent of Zack Kelly or Brennan Bernardino.

Crochet may command more than that, he may command less. He was older, but he was also more accomplished. I think what we send over will hurt, but it doesn't need to hurt that bad. That's all I'm saying.

If Chicago demands Mayer and Abreu, the Sox will tell them to pound sand. If they end up sending over Braden Montgomery, Wikelman, a lottery ticket, and Zack Kelly, I'll be very happy- and I'm pretty sure Chicago won't do much better than that. If they send over Mayer to make sure they get it done, I'll be sad (a little) but I'll get it.

 

[koufax32]

My first inclination, if CHI insists on both, is to turn my attention to Seattle and see if Mayer/Abreu plus one more player like Montgomery could net Gilbert AND Woo. I doubt they’d be willing to move both, but doing that while also avoiding FA would be a pretty big win.
That aside, if Mayer/Abreu have to be it, I’d hope BOS could pry a pitching prospect away from CHI to balance the trade out.

 

[Cassvt2023]

It seems like these trades usually feature a 4 for one, giving the rebuilding team that presumably needs a lot, more shots to compete sooner as well as in the future. I'm guessing it'll be something like Abreu (GG winner, ROY candidate, years of control) Hamilton (ML experience, an obvious plus tool, spark plug type for a team needing infusion of energy, can play 2b and maybe CF, SS in a pinch) Bleis (top 10 prospect in Sox system, lots of tools but may be blocked in Boston and hasn't lived up to potential) and Hunter Dobbins (top 20 Sox prospect, big arm, repeatable delivery, made it to AAA and CHI gets a pitcher back)

 

[Mugsy's Jock]

I like Wilyer Abreu as much as the next guy, but describing him as a "ROY candidate" is asking the word "candidate" to do a lot of work.

Over at BetMGM right now, Abreu is the 4th choice at +10000. Well ahead of him are Luis Gil (-250), Colton Cowser (+180), and Austin Wells (+1100).

For comparison, the Pirates have the same 100:1 odds to win the 2025 World Series, the Buccaneers are around 100:1 to win the 2025 Super Bowl, and the Rockets and Clippers are 100:1 to win the 2025 NBA Championship. I don't think those teams are particularly considered championship "candidates".

[Though Ken Coleman famously reminds us the Impossible Dream Red Sox were 100:1 to win the 1967 American League pennant. And best as I can tell, the 2004 Sox were 150:1 to win the pennant once they were down 0-3. So don't give up hope.]

If Abreu were the top player in a package for a young, talented, starting pitcher with two years of affordable control, like Crochet, the White Sox GM would be justifiably run out of town.

 

[SouthernBoSox]

I like Wilyer Abreu as much as the next guy, but describing him as a "ROY candidate" is asking the word "candidate" to do a lot of work.

Over at BetMGM right now, Abreu is the 4th choice at +10000. Well ahead of him are Luis Gil (-250), Colton Cowser (+180), and Austin Wells (+1100).

For comparison, the Pirates have the same 100:1 odds to win the 2025 World Series, the Buccaneers are around 100:1 to win the 2025 Super Bowl, and the Rockets and Clippers are 100:1 to win the 2025 NBA Championship. I don't think those teams are particularly considered championship "candidates".

[Though Ken Coleman famously reminds us the Impossible Dream Red Sox were 100:1 to win the 1967 American League pennant.]

If Abreu were the top player in a package for a young, talented, starting pitcher with two years of affordable control, like Crochet, the White Sox GM would be justifiably run out of town.

Luis Gil 2.2 fWar
Colston Cowser 4 fWar
Austin Wells 3.4 fWar
Wilyer Abreu 3.1 fWar

I am convinced that because he was acquired via trade of Vasquez, this board drastically under appreciates Abreu. If the Campbell comes up and post 3.1 fWar people are going to want to - rightfully so - consider him a cornerstone player.

 

[simplicio]

Luis Gil 2.2 fWar
Colston Cowser 4 fWar
Austin Wells 3.4 fWar
Wilyer Abreu 3.1 fWar

I am convinced that because he was acquired via trade of Vasquez, this board drastically under appreciates Abreu. If the Campbell comes up and post 3.1 fWar people are going to want to - rightfully so - consider him a cornerstone player.

I don't give a shit about pedigree. If Abreu could hit LHP at an average or even close to average level he'd be a cornerstone player. He's a really good player with a glaring, exploitable hole in his game.

 

[Cassvt2023]

I like Wilyer Abreu as much as the next guy, but describing him as a "ROY candidate" is asking the word "candidate" to do a lot of work.

Over at BetMGM right now, Abreu is the 4th choice at +10000. Well ahead of him are Luis Gil (-250), Colton Cowser (+180), and Austin Wells (+1100).

For comparison, the Pirates have the same 100:1 odds to win the 2025 World Series, the Buccaneers are around 100:1 to win the 2025 Super Bowl, and the Rockets and Clippers are 100:1 to win the 2025 NBA Championship. I don't think those teams are particularly considered championship "candidates".

[Though Ken Coleman famously reminds us the Impossible Dream Red Sox were 100:1 to win the 1967 American League pennant. And best as I can tell, the 2004 Sox were 150:1 to win the pennant once they were down 0-3. So don't give up hope.]

If Abreu were the top player in a package for a young, talented, starting pitcher with two years of affordable control, like Crochet, the White Sox GM would be justifiably run out of town.

I will give you young and talented, but it cannot be overlooked that he has a total of 32 career starts and has thrown all of 219 innings in the majors. He also has an injury history and there are questions about how his delivery may be an issue with more down the road. The comps of what the return was for Sale, Cease, Burnes, etc... are in a whole different ballpark, IMO

 

[Fishy1]

@simplicio I'd like to address this "Wilyer will never hit lefties because he never did in the minors" meme because it is just that, a meme.

He posted OPS's just barely south of .800 in the minors against LHP in 2023 (.788) and 2022 (.775) and was at .840 in A+ ball. So while those aren't mind-blowing numbers, they don't scream "can't hit LHP at all", they suggest he could be cromulent going forward. If he'd had one or two more doubles, we're looking at that and thinking "huh, an .800 OPS against LHP! Pretty good!"

For fun, I looked at what Devers did in the minors against LHP. In his last full season in 2017, between AA and AAA, he posted an .810 OPS against LHP. Better than Abreu, but not a ton better. In 2016, in A+ ball, he was at .726. He struggled even worse in A ball (.653 OPS). And he's been about league average against LHP in his career.

Or hmmm! Casas, who we all know has hit LHP pretty well in the big leagues. Guess what! In 2022 his OPS against LHP was .618 in 84 PA. In 2021 it was .590 against LHP in a similar sample size.

What happened then? He got better at hitting. Can you believe it?! It's almost like hitters like Wilyer and Casas, who are cerebral about their approach and do their best to make adjustments, can learn to hit LHP.

EDIT: Statcast, btw, has different numbers for Wilyer's minor league numbers for 2023 than BRef, which has him forty points lower over an extra ten plate appearances. Which just goes to show how small these samples are. The sample, nonetheless, suggests he wasn't terrible against them). My suspicion is that Cora will do the same thing with Wilyer that he did with Casas before him and work him in slowly against LHP.

And sorry for being sarcastic, I just think we're killing Abreu because he doesn't have the pedigree that other guys do, even though all he's done in his career is hit the ball extremely hard (94th percentile by statcast) and play a great outfield. These players don't grow on trees, but prospects with great pedigrees do wash out a lot of the time. That's why I'm so reluctant to deal Abreu, and would rather deal from our considerable pool of minor league talent.

 

[TrotNixonRing]

I will give you young and talented, but it cannot be overlooked that he has a total of 32 career starts and has thrown all of 219 innings in the majors. He also has an injury history and there are questions about how his delivery may be an issue with more down the road. The comps of what the return was for Sale, Cease, Burnes, etc... are in a whole different ballpark, IMO

this, for the love of God, this. He’s not established. The range of (edit: potential) outcomes is enormous.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

@simplicio I'd like to address this "Wilyer will never hit lefties because he never did in the minors" meme because it is just that, a meme.

He posted OPS's just barely south of .800 in the minors against LHP in 2023 (.788) and 2022 (.775) and was at .840 in A+ ball. So while those aren't mind-blowing numbers, they don't scream "can't hit LHP at all", they suggest he could be cromulent going forward. If he'd had one or two more doubles, we're looking at that and thinking "huh, an .800 OPS against LHP! Pretty good!"

For fun, I looked at what Devers did in the minors against LHP. In his last full season in 2017, between AA and AAA, he posted an .810 OPS against LHP. Better than Abreu, but not a ton better. In 2016, in A+ ball, he was at .726. He struggled even worse in A ball (.653 OPS).

Or hmmm! Casas, who we all know has hit LHP pretty well in the big leagues. Guess what! In 2022 his OPS against LHP was .618 in 84 PA. In 2021 it was .590 against LHP.

What happened then? He got better at hitting. Can you believe it?! It's almost like hitters like Wilyer and Casas, who are cerebral about their approach and do their best to make adjustments, can learn to hit LHP.

EDIT: Statcast, btw, has different numbers for Wilyer's minor league numbers for 2023 than BRef, which has him forty points lower over an extra ten plate appearances. Which just goes to show how small these samples are).

I'll add that a 3 WAR player, even with struggles against LHP, is a pretty fucking valuable player.

 

[BeantownIdaho]

I don't give a shit about pedigree. If Abreu could hit LHP at an average or even close to average level he'd be a cornerstone player. He's a really good player with a glaring, exploitable hole in his game.

2018 Jackie Bradley Jr?

 

[Fishy1]

I'll add that a 3 WAR player, even with struggles against LHP, is a pretty fucking valuable player.

Absolutely! And for people who don't like WAR, I get it, it's crude as hell, but anybody who used the eye test last year saw a guy who hit ropes to all fields and played an outstanding right field (and a very effortful one, too). They saw him struggle against LHP, it's true, but in a tiny sample size. He'll get more of a shot next year, I think, just like Casas did. This team clearly likes him as a player, they traded for him because of his remarkable BB%'s and probably because they scouted him and thought he was a good defender. Between him, Casas, and Ceddanne, I would not be surprised at all if Abreu has the best career of the bunch.

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

Corbin Burnes got two top 100 level prospects plus a compensation draft pick, and he was 29 with just one year of control.

I think Crochet would cost you guys two guys who hurt, otherwise someone else will bid more.

Burnes cost them two guys in the back half of the top 100 list that were in the "serviceable major leaguer" category. If that's the cost, you'd be looking at Crawford and Rafaela.

If Abreu were the top player in a package for a young, talented, starting pitcher with two years of affordable control, like Crochet, the White Sox GM would be justifiably run out of town.

Like Verdugo headlining a Mookie deal?

 

[Cassvt2023]

Burnes cost them two guys in the back half of the top 100 list that were in the "serviceable major leaguer" category. If that's the cost, you'd be looking at Crawford and Rafaela.

See my post above: Burnes vs. Crochet = apples vs. oranges. Not a fair comp at all.

 

[Mugsy's Jock]

Like Verdugo headlining a Mookie deal?

Too soon. But yes, of course.

 

[Sille Skrub]

Like Verdugo headlining a Mookie deal?

Way too soon!

 

[jbupstate]

Just looked at Verdugo’s age 23 season vs Abreu age 25 season.

Not sure I value to gold glove enough to not grab a pitcher with ace potential. I’d also try to keep Mayer due to the premium position. The health stuff is kind of silly…

 

[simplicio]

2018 Jackie Bradley Jr?

JBJ was more generational defensive talent whose bat you could abide.

 

[EddieYost]

I feel like we overuse the word generational a lot.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I feel like we overuse the word generational a lot.

As far as words go, it’s pretty elite.

 

[OCD SS]

So Abreu is officially not a candidate for AL ROY.

Did his trade value decrease?

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

Re: Mayer, I think it's worth remembering that a few of the more scouting-oriented prospect writers (like Keith Law and the FG guy) have raised some flags about his ability to hit at the big-league level, specifically noting that he can't hit soft stuff.

Re: Abreu, how sure is everyone that this is his true defensive level? I don't recall anyone describing him as a JBJ/PCA-level defensive talent back when he was coming up.

 

[chrisfont9]

So Abreu is officially not a candidate for AL ROY.

Did his trade value decrease?

No, just the public perception. Inside the game they know what to look at.

 

[nighthob]

Re: Mayer, I think it's worth remembering that a few of the more scouting-oriented prospect writers (like Keith Law and the FG guy) have raised some flags about his ability to hit at the big-league level, specifically noting that he can't hit soft stuff.

Re: Abreu, how sure is everyone that this is his true defensive level? I don't recall anyone describing him as a JBJ/PCA-level defensive talent back when he was coming up.

I’m not sure that there’s a question about his ability to hit at the big league level so much as it’s a question about his ability to hit offspeed stuff from lefties. Watch him and you can see that his right shoulder is a little stiff. Hopefully their science department can help him work that out (as they’ve worked with the Emperor on speed and explosiveness). It would hurt, but I might go as high as Abreu and Mayer for Crochet. Especially if Crochet’s signing a friendly extension.

 

[Sox Pride]

This isn’t just a question of lining up the value of the Sox package vs. Crochet.

This is a bidding situation where a number of teams will offer highly valuable packages.
and the White Sox will use those as leverage to try and get the most value from the package they like best.

I’m with Jon Abbey, the inevitable “overpay” package for Crochet is going to seem painful to the winning fanbase.

 

[BeantownIdaho]

Re: Mayer, I think it's worth remembering that a few of the more scouting-oriented prospect writers (like Keith Law and the FG guy) have raised some flags about his ability to hit at the big-league level, specifically noting that he can't hit soft stuff.

Re: Abreu, how sure is everyone that this is his true defensive level? I don't recall anyone describing him as a JBJ/PCA-level defensive talent back when he was coming up.

After he was acquired...

“The players we got are players we’re really excited about,” chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom said. “Both these guys are fast risers in the Houston system. I don’t just mean in terms of the levels they’re at. But bust in terms of the progression of their skills. Really good hitters. Valdez plays a lot of different positions but the bat is really the calling card. It’s come on very well and very quickly. Really, when you go under the hood, there’s a lot of things he does that make him a very complete hitter. He makes contact. He manages at-bats. He drives the ball. He covers all different pitch types. Covers the strike zone really well. He’s really come on this year, making nice progress offensively.
“Abreu, another kid who is a hitter we liked who also plays all three outfield positions,” Bloom added. “Has made himself an asset on defense. Both guys being left-handed hitters add to our picture. And recognizing they are in the minor leagues now, we think both these guys have a chance to really help us and help over time make our roster more talented, deeper, more complete.”

Abreu’s Baseball America scouting reports notes: “After trading contact for power coming out of the 2020 pandemic, Abreu has found a happy medium this season, showing better bat-to-ball skills allowing him to more consistently access his power in game. He’s an extremely patient hitter with a discerning eye at the plate, leading to high walk totals and some strikeouts due to passivity. Overall it’s high level swing decisions with above-average game power. He has enough bat-to-ball skills to avoid the three-true-outcome label, but his average will fluctuate due to his flyball heavy approach. Defensively he can handle centerfield and tests highly on the Astros internal athleticism measurements. He has an unusual build as he’s a bigger bodied player for centerfield, but he has the ability to hit and provide versatility in the outfield.”


His MLB Pipeline scouting report notes, “While he produces some of the better exit velocities among Houston farmhands, he also struck out at a 29 percent clip in 2021 and will have to prove he can make enough contact against more advanced pitching.”

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2022/08/boston-red-sox-trade-who-are-prospects-enmanuel-valdez-wilyer-abreu-from-christian-vazquez-deal.html

 

[TrotNixonRing]

This isn’t just a question of lining up the value of the Sox package vs. Crochet.

This is a bidding situation where a number of teams will offer highly valuable packages.
and the White Sox will use those as leverage to try and get the most value from the package they like best.

I’m with Jon Abbey, the inevitable “overpay” package for Crochet is going to seem painful to the winning fanbase.

fair but it cuts both ways - there are other teams selling SP that would need to “bid” to get the Red Sox’s young player / prospect package. Things can get out of whack if a particular asset is in low supply but hopefully there are enough teams selling SP for the Sox to have the leverage needed to keep most of the guys they like most. Seattle is the obvious potential partner there but Pitt and other starters have been mentioned.

 

[jon abbey]

fair but it cuts both ways - there are other teams selling SP that would need to “bid” to get the Red Sox’s young player / prospect package. Things can get out of whack if a particular asset is in low supply but hopefully there are enough teams selling SP for the Sox to have the leverage needed to keep most of the guys they like most. Seattle is the obvious potential partner there but Pitt and other starters have been mentioned.

It could cut both ways theoretically but I don’t think it currently actually does. SEA would seemingly need to be bowled over to move any of their top 5 according to the piece below, dunno about PIT.

https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/will-mariners-have-to-trade-a-starting-pitcher-to-improve-offense-analysis/