Hooking Crochet? 12/8 update: Rumors of Red Sox "just on the periphery," "not aggressors at all" at this point.
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Didn't Sale extend with Atlanta and Glasnow with LAD right away?
I think Crochet's case is a little different cause he raised the topic himself with the talk around the deadline and that's unusual these days. Maybe with a different situation that's no longer relevant, but that possibility is the only thing in my mind that makes trading for him worth it.
My guess is they want to give Rafaela more time at a regular position to try to turn his bat around, because he becomes (even more) tremendously valuable if he can, and they didn't extend him just to have him sit. I think he's the opening day CF.
Anthony I think has an arm that profiles better than Campbell's or Duran's (who got his arm strength up some this year but still wasn't really controlling runners with it). So I'd say he's the most natural RF fit unless they move Rafaela over there.
Anthony I think has an arm that profiles better than Campbell's or Duran's (who got his arm strength up some this year but still wasn't really controlling runners with it). So I'd say he's the most natural RF fit unless they move Rafaela over there.
I can’t see pitting Abreu against Anthony for a corner OF spot so as to shoehorn Rafaela’s bat into the lineup.
Ceddanne improving as a hitter is a pipe dream IMO. He has not shown an ability to change his plate approach. More at bats has not changed anything. He can be a super-sub.
People think we have too much OF depth but we have way more middle infielders than we do outfielders. Mayer, Campbell, Story, Ceddanne, Hamilton, Grissom, Meidroth, Valdez, Romy, Sogard - all of those guys are worthy of a chance at the majors right now, for somebody. And with the FO reportedly liking Campbell at SS, Story-Campbell-Ceddanne-Romy is more than enough depth for me at SS.
Mayer is just very blocked (and for all the people who are going to say that you can't depend on Story, well, you haven't been able to depend on Mayer either, and Mayer is another left-handed bat who might struggle with left handed pitching.). I'll drop it now, for everyone's sake, but this is why I'm so adamant we should draw the line at Mayer. I think he'll be a very good player, and I think Chicago would be happy for him, warts and all. Their best SS prospect just hit .214 in AAA. Give them a couple other lottery tickets and they oughta be pretty happy, IMO.
I think this is sort of the backbone of the entire post-season story. There's no real FA comparison, but if there was it would be, "The Sox have a one-time cash pile of 500 million dollars that must be spent by March 1." Obviously there is no such thing, but prospect "surplusage" (I use that term very cautiously) has an expiration date, given performance, roster spaces, etc. IF Mayer is to be traded, there may be no better window for it than this winter.
The flip side of Mayer's inconsistent availability is that it depresses his value somewhat. But when trading for a pitcher -- especially one also with some history -- it does seem like a good match.
That said, Wilyer's really good MLB season and Anthony knocking on the door might make him a more valuable trade piece.
We cant know is what the FO consensus is on Anthony's MLB timeline and Mayer's MLB prospects. My .02 is that because shortstops are the inherently more valuable commodity, the team should be a little more cautious in moving him.
EDIT: Just read @Fishy1 post. I was unaware of the belief in Campbell at SS; but I'm not sure I see Romy as a 135 game SS. But that's just my eyes talking, along with some "he's a part-timer" bias, so I could be off.
Exactly. Crochet has made it clear he wants an extension. RH is right that his desire in no way obligates a team to offer him one, but I’ve been operating under the assumption that teams trading for him will want to extend him. Could be wrong.
Ceddanne's bat may prove to be a pipe dream. But I think it's foolish to write it off as a lost cause after year one. He was physically gifted enough to get away with his approach in the minors and that ended for him this year; I want to see how he responds with an offseason to adjust.
He was looking productive enough during the summer; it's not like there's nothing there to dream on. I also think that like Duran he was pretty worn out by the end of August.
I was unaware of the bolded. What little I've read has Campbell's arm a little suspect at short and him better suited for the right side of the IF.
He played all over the field in the minors - SS, 2B, CF, and was named Portland's defensive player of the year. They clearly like him as a defender. I'm surprised people are so stuck on Mayer when Campbell has clearly surpassed him in talent, performance, and availability.
Is he as good as Ceddanne as a defender? No, but they clearly think he's got the athleticism to play anywhere.
@simplicio I don't want to give up on him or his bat, I just don't want to slot him in for 700 plate appearances. I want the team to put itself in the best position to succeed. Having him as a supersub will not stop him from getting plenty of at-bats or time on the field, he'll likely still end up with four to five hundred at bats. And it might give him a little more time to breathe and work on his recognition and discipline in his off days. This is the big leagues: you either hit or you don't. With Story and Grissom back and the arrival of Anthony and Campbell being imminent, there's plenty of pedigree and talent to go around: he needs to earn a full-time role just like everybody else. Duran was great in CF too, but I know lots of people think he's going to suddenly flame out.
If he takes off in the spring and Duran is hurt and we never look back, by all means, he can have the CF job. But I think that's highly unlikely. The book was out on him by his third week, and in a year and a half there hasn't been even the slightest adjustment except that he's striking out slightly less (and also walking less). We're talking about a guy who posted a sub 3% walk rate. That's galling!
I think that a lot of the comments about his arm stem from the SoxProspects first looks at him in 2023. Since then, he's completely reinvented himself as a player. They played him at SS in AAA after Mayer was shut down and he got the outs.
Remember, Mookie Betts signed as a SS but it was quickly decided he didn't have the arm for it. A few years later, he's the best RF in a baseball, including a plus arm. A few years later, he spends a couple months as the starting SS for a World Series winning team.
I want to second that there would a lot of value in Cedanne being a super utility "tenth men." That guy on a baseball time will virtually get a starter's plate appearances. The flexibility he offers - allowing guys all over the diamond to have days off, or sit against a bad match up, or fill in when people are hurt, or allow for pinch hitting because he can move into so many positions - isn't something to take for granted. I mean, he's no Tony Phillips, but that's the idea.
I think this makes sense in theory, but that value is much more limited when the OF and SS on the roster are already good defensive players themselves. If he was a guy who crushed lefties or something, that would be cool. But who would be any him to PH for? Or to come in for defense for?
Ultimately, if he’s not playing every day, how will his bat develop? It’s probably all moot since someone will get hurt, anyways, of course.
I hear you. I'm not suggesting he pinch hits, but he allows for pinch hitting variously, since he could then move into the field in so many positions for anyone who was just pinch hit for ...
Where I come down is this: the best version of the team will likely not be one in which he is a starter by the midpoint of the season. It's weird to me that we want to slot him as full-time starter next year we've got Anthony and Campbell coming up, who are much much much more complete players, and good defenders (and better hitters) in Story and Duran already locking down positions.
I love watching the guy play defense but it's like we all have this collective amnesia about his hitting. His plate approach is eye-bleedingly horrific. He has more than 2500 plate appearances as a professional baseball player and it has not improved even slightly. He got away with it in the minor leagues because half the guys can't pitch, but no one needs to throw him a strike in the big leagues because he categorically can not lay off pitches: not fastballs, not sliders, not change-ups, not sweepers. He just can't. If he proves he can do that in a more limited role next year, that's great. But I think it's wrong to approach next year assuming he will.
I’m saying I would probably trade him; a great defensive player who can’t hit, especially against lefties, isn’t a need for this team. Cash him in for something that helps the team more in the short and long term- if he’s truly an elite generational defensive player already worth 2-3 wins, teams should be lining up.
White Sox are looking for major league ready position players, right?
White Sox are looking for major league ready position players, right?
Thanks to both. Any info I tried to find on Campbell's ability as a SS pointed to that SoxProspects assessment.
You cannot sign a pre arb player to a long term extension and then trade him the next offseason.
You just can’t set that precedent if you ever want to sign a pre arb player again. It’s a complete no fly zone.
I imagine he’d rather play every day in Chicago than be a backup in Boston.
Things change. Players and teams will continue to make decisions that they think are best for them; I wouldn’t worry about this aspect at all.
I cannot over express how offsides you are on this. Teams do not turn around and trade pre arb players that signed extensions 12 months later.
Agency would black list you. You cannot work in bad faith with org players under control like that.
How is it “bad faith”? The emergence of Anthony, Campbell, and Duran has changed their plans in the near and long term. There’s suddenly no clear path to regular playing time for Rafaela. So the team doesn’t have the option to move him? Even if it’s a situation that would be better for him? For how long?
Why exactly would Rafaela’s reps be upset? If he was still making the minimum and had no long term deal, it would be ok to move him?
Is this only a thing with pre-arb deals? Plenty of guys have signed contracts and been traded shortly thereafter.
I’m a little embarrassed to ask, but I will anyway: is it “Crochet” as in the crafting activity with yarn, or is it “Crochet” as in the word “crotchety?” Or some other pronunciation?
I don't know why you're getting so angry about this, no one does this but it's just because it almost never makes sense to do so. It has zero to do with 'bad faith'. Cedanne didn't sign the deal with BOS to do them a favor, he and his agent thought it made the most sense for him to do so. If he wanted to negotiate a no-trade deal as part of it, they could have tried to do that at the time.
I am in no way angry. I’m simply stating the fact that teams do not extend pre arb players and trade them less than a year later. It does not happen and one of the reasons it doesn’t happen is because it’s seen as bad faith from agency. I’m not saying anything controversial at all here.
It doesn't happen because it doesn't make sense for a team to do so, especially in the early years of a deal. Generally the trade value of a pre-arb player goes lower by signing them to an extension and it doesn't go back up unless they play great, in which case why would the team trade them, relatively cheap and playing great? I disagree that 'bad faith' has anything to do with it, any more than any other contract signed. Players don't sign these deals to do their teams a favor, they do it to lock in guaranteed money. I'm not saying anything controversial at all here.
A lot of guys have scary injury histories early on and are fine -- if it's the elbow. Eovaldi had two TJs by age 26 and has been fine. Crochet raising his usage this year obviously suggests he's fine for now. BUT! Keith Law did an end of year piece where he talked about his delivery and the risks inherent in it.
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5792623/2024/09/27/mlb-garrett-crochet-christopher-sanchez-revised-scouting-report/
I don't think they should give up Mayer for him. Grissom and Abreu maybe, to clear the logjam without giving up any of the Big 4.
[Yesterday I was speculating that the bidding could get overheated, but now I'm hedging on that. His medicals should be good but the delivery thing might be enough to drop the price.]
No, the White Sox are trying to not spend at all. [How they have any fans left, idk.] We'd have to pay most of the salary, which isn't worth it. I feel like Masa is a Sale candidate, where the injuries are just exhausting to deal with but if you dump him right before his finally healthy season, it will be so annoying.
I’m not sure how many can but I’m also not sure how many would. I mean, Jesus, you aren’t selling this idea. You really want to trade a young, cost controlled gold glover who can hit for a guy with a 1/2 season track record?
A lot of these prospects also can play in the infield. Why not trade Casas instead and rework the IF so that someone like Mayer or Campbell take over at 3b and Devers moves to 1b? That would actually help the team’s defense.
Would I do it? No. I don’t value Crochet’s half season of success that highly. That said, if I had to choose one trade or another I’d be more comfortable with that plan. Abreu is more -not less- valuable than a guy like Casas who may have shown a bit more on offense (at a position where offense is easier to find) but is just another bad defensive infielder on a team that has too many of them.
If the Sox get cold feet on Crochet's medicals or inexperience, I supposed they can see if the price is low enough, or they can call Seattle and dangle Duran for a surer bet. That part belongs in a different thread, but Crochet's "value" includes not having to go quite so all-in... or it should.
Granted, this is for fantasy baseball purposes, but Nick Pollack / PitcherList is pretty reputable and ranks Crochet as the #3 SP for the 2025 season (https://pitcherlist.com/top-200-starting-pitchers-for-fantasy-baseball-2025/). Below is his write-up:
I think if you can get him with Abreu as the headlining piece, you absolutely do it. Crochet + Fried would be a pretty ideal offseason if those are the big moves.
We’re always saying “get the next X.” The next X by definition doesn’t have the same track record as X. Well, Crochet could be the next X.
Have any of the skeptics actually seen him pitch? He’s like if Kutter Crawford were a 6’6” lefty who sat 97. That sounds absurd, but they sort of pitch the same way: challenging hitters in the zone with a four-seam fastball that is hard to square up, and walking very few.
Crochet’s four-seamer is among the best pitches in the sport, and he throws it a lot, more than fifty percent of the time. Then there’s a 91 mph cutter that he throws ~30 percent of the time, and a sweeper, change, and sinker that are basically for show. He mainly uses the four-seam fastball and the cutter. And he throws a ton of strikes, and hitters swing a lot and whiff a lot.
This guy could just *devour* innings, racking up quick outs because of how many strikes he throws.
Have any of the skeptics actually seen him pitch? He’s like if Kutter Crawford were a 6’6” lefty who sat 97. That sounds absurd, but they sort of pitch the same way: challenging hitters in the zone with a four-seam fastball that is hard to square up, and walking very few.
Crochet’s four-seamer is among the best pitches in the sport, and he throws it a lot, more than fifty percent of the time. Then there’s a 91 mph cutter that he throws ~30 percent of the time, and a sweeper, change, and sinker that are basically for show. He mainly uses the four-seam fastball and the cutter. And he throws a ton of strikes, and hitters swing a lot and whiff a lot.
This guy could just *devour* innings, racking up quick outs because of how many strikes he throws.
Happily would add Rafaela to any trade..
Abreu, Anthony, Duran should be our OF of the future. Campbell can play multiple IF positions as well as the OF.
I’d happily give up Grissom and/or Rafaela for Crochet, but other than that I’d keep offers limited to prospects.
I’m confused, are you saying that trading Casas instead of Abreu is more “all in”.
If so, I disagree. Abreu has more career fWAR than Casas in 300 less plate appearances and bad defensive 1B with .830 career OPS’s are really not particularly special, meanwhile gold glove OFers who can put up an .800 OPS are far less common. That doesn’t even get into the fact that the Sox just happen to play in a park that demands a strong glove in RF.
To be clear, I’m not saying trade Casas for Crochet. I’m saying I wouldn’t trade either Casas or Abreu for Crochet.
You know Crochet didn't just luck into his performance, right? The stuff plays and yeah, if he's available for Abreu (an excellent defender but a platoon bat) as the primary piece and available to extend we should all be leaping for joy.
The system has zero replacement for Casas, while it has multiple replacements for Abreu.
If you can get Crochet for a headlined packaged by Abreu then you do it.
Part of Rafaela’s value is he can play all over. He can certainly handle right field while Roman is still in AAA.
I also wouldn’t be shocked at all if Roman broke camp with the team. He’s simply that good and I can see the Sox gunning for the ROY comp pick.
Especially if it coincides with a signing of Teoscar or other subsequent move that adds right handed power in the outfield.
I am just asking since I do not know, what examples of this exist? Thank you.
Normally I would agree with you. The problem that, though, is that Boston has a better player waiting in the wings. So it's a much easier risk for them to take as opposed to other clubs. And if you can land someone like Crochet with a more minimal risk, you have to do it.
Look, we all love Abreu, but whether it's today or in the next year or two, he's going to be outbound to make way for better players. Because they still have Montgomery in the pipeline (and this is why I also suspect that Bleis is readily available, they can cover CF without him and they have plenty of high end OF depth).
Based on your analysis on Meyer why the heck would the white Sox trade for an injury prone short stop who can’t hit lefties and two lottery tickets?
I wouldn’t be surprised if the trade was Abreu Meyer and Crawford for crochet , which would have people projectile vomiting here but I think Breslow feels pressure to make a deal happen.
Personally I'd only even consider trading one of the big four for Crochet if he is willing to sign a quite team friendly extension. Otherwise I'd offer Abreu+ or a package of lower minors position player prospects (not Montgomery). I like Abreu a lot, but a LH platoon OF bat is basically the area of lowest need for the org.
I'd also consider trading Mayer or Teel if the White Sox are willing to take on all of Yoshida's contract as that would also solve the roster issue with keeping Abreu.
No idea of Chicago would go for any of these options, but I think Crochet's value is at least somewhat limited by his lack of track record and low IP. He's got great stuff, but there's just no telling if he will be able to throw that stuff over a full season without destroying his arm. Pitching mechanics and injury risk are way beyond my pay grade, so gotta trust the FO to analyze that one correctly.
I'd also consider trading Mayer or Teel if the White Sox are willing to take on all of Yoshida's contract as that would also solve the roster issue with keeping Abreu.
No idea of Chicago would go for any of these options, but I think Crochet's value is at least somewhat limited by his lack of track record and low IP. He's got great stuff, but there's just no telling if he will be able to throw that stuff over a full season without destroying his arm. Pitching mechanics and injury risk are way beyond my pay grade, so gotta trust the FO to analyze that one correctly.
Minor quibble, but if you ask Google or Copilot or ChatGPT what percentage of MLB pitchers are right handed, you get 70-75%. So Abreu is OK most of the time. Late in games, a manager can bring in a lefty to face him, but that pitcher also has to face two other batters. Still, a tough one for Breslow and his staff re whom to trade, for sure.
If Abreu is the headliner to get a pitcher with the potential of Crochet at his age, i say you do that in a heartbeat. Cost controlled SP is the hardest thing to acquire in baseball. And Abreu, coming off winning the GG, and not being exposed to LHP for the most part, may never have a higher value. And his replacement is waiting in the wings, who happens to be the #1 prospect in all of baseball. And you got Abreu for Christian Vasquez.
Abreu has been worth around 4 wins in 160 games. Maybe they have a better player waiting in the wings, maybe they don't. Plenty of top prospects that never ended up being worth 4 wins per 162.
Because Mayer is a top ten prospect by some accounts even with those warts. I didn't say Mayer can't hit lefties (he hit them fine in A and A+), I said he might struggle with them. And they would like him because their MI currently is Paul DeJong and Nicky Lopez, who are respectively more washed-up than a beached whale. I just think each offseason everyone comes on here and is like, okay, let's trade our players who just had great years because surely it can't last! It's a scarcity mindset thing, we think we NEED starting pitching (when of course our SP was 7th in all of baseball in ERA), and we're all afraid these guys who've broken out will tumble and will be left holding the bag. It was the same story with Duran last year (and I was stupidly on board for that).
My suspicion is that the market for Crochet is robust but less robust than people expect. He got rocked in the second half to the tune of a 5.12 ERA despite being held back and averaging 3 and 1/3rd innings a start. He never had to pitch to anybody the third time through the order, and a lot of nights he didn't even need to pitch to them the second time through the order, and he still got hit pretty hard. He's got the stuff and the control of a top ten pitcher, but he's never thrown more than 150 innings in a season. It's an open question how he'd hold up.
Sure, he might. Or this might just be the beginning of a really good career. We haven't yet seen him lock in the elite plate discipline he showed in the minor leagues.
You can say the same thing about Mayer. He might completely flounder in AAA. He might never hit in the majors. The difference is that even with Anthony promoted there's a clear path to Abreu playing, and with Mayer, there's basically no path to him playing him right now with Story, Campbell, Grissom, and others ahead of him.
As for this replacement stuff, I just keep coming back to the fact that our outfield is arguably thinner than our infield. We trade Abreu and we've got Anthony/Duran/Ceddanne/Refsnyder (and Campbell), 5 guys for three spots, one of whom couldn't hit water falling out of a boat. Meanwhile we have like 8 guys who could be above average major league regulars for two spots in the middle infield.
In my mind, yes, insofar as the Sox value him probably higher anyway and definitely because of the position/crowded OF. They both are young so the numbers thus far, while favoring Abreu, don't really predict the future. Even Casas' D supposedly was improving. I love Wilyer too and am not so sure that we should keep Duran over him. He really fits RF well.
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