I just really really doubt this, looking at the history of these sorts of trades. I'm not sure why everyone thinks the White Sox are going to get a major league proven player. They can say all they want that they want that, but I can't think of basically any deals that actually shook out this way. Can anyone else?
I don't think they need to give up one of the Big 4 and shouldn't. Sale was a much more established pitcher at the time than Crochet is now, and we were still able to hold onto Devers, Benintendi, Anderson Espinoza and Brian Johnson, for what that is worth
I'm not necessarily sold on Crochet or any particular package of acceptable prospects, but for me the answer to this question is age. Crochet is 25 and basically all the starters on the free agent market are 30+.
How many teams can (and would) supply them with a good, young, cost controlled MLB player for a pitcher with a 1/2 season track record? I'm betting it ain't a long list. Boston's sort of unique in having Abreu already proven with Anthony waiting in the wings and Montgomery right behind him.
Porcello for Cespedes? Granted, both those players came with just one year of remaining control, but Porcello was going into his age 26 season (like Crochet) with a significantly longer track record of success as a starter (180 starts, over 1000 innings). And the Sox almost immediately extended him, so they got five years and a Cy Young season out of dealing one year of a guy they'd had for two months and a couple of rather pedestrian prospects.
Hamilton is a name that I've not heard mentioned and might be the perfect type of player to add to a package. His D at 2nd plays much better than at SS, he's a disruptive force on the bases and might bring a bit of excitement to a franchise that needs it, is still very affordable and frees up an additional 40 man spot which Breslow is likely looking to do in order to get the likes of ATMC ready to promote.
By trading the No. 1 prospect in baseball in Yoan Moncada, and another very good prospect in Michael Kopech.
It's worth a lot, IMO. It's actual precedent. The Burnes deal isn't a great example, as it was just one year, but the Sale deal, the Cease deal, the Beckett deal: there's lots of others, but the bottom line is it's pretty rare.
A good example... But that one year of control is the crucial thing, isn't it? 5 years of Abreu or 4 years of Duran, or four years of Kutter, for two years of a guy who just had his first and only healthy season?.. That's not a good baseball move at the end of the day. It's got a lot of upside, sure, but the likelihood that you're just giving away years and years of production for a guy who might not even be able to stay on the mound is silly. And again, all these examples - Cease, Sale, Glasnow, Beckett, Porcello - they'd all been good pitchers for much, much longer than Crochet. The guy is a walking red flag.
For a 25yo LHP starter with some tempting potential? I hope you're right but this is a rare chance. Someone will go beyond what we expected.
100%. But if you grab Crochet for Abreu+, keep the big 4, sign Fried, boost the bullpen, and supplement the lineup with other moves - you are really cooking with some gas.
Yes, but not guys at the MLB level. Because teams almost always need those guys. Boston's unique in terms of having a potential franchise bat playing CF in Worcester, a guy that seems to play all over the IF and OF without much difficulty (also at Worcester), and then some seriously high upside OFs behind them. The Yankees, I think, would really like to hold onto Chisholm and Dominguez. The Orioles could overpay in terms of prospects to make the deal, but I haven't seen any evidence that they're willing to empty the tank for a guy with that limited track record.
I agree, in general terms, that it's a high risk move. But for Boston that risk is, essentially, erased because of Roman Anthony. Plus, beyond him, you have Kristian Campbell (who could easily be moved to LF), Braden Montgomery, Miguel Bleis, and Jhostynxon Garcia. I love Abreu as much as the next guy, but he's the rich man's Trot Nixon. He's expendable for a top of the rotation starter. Something like Abreu and Nixon or Abreu and Bleis is tough to top value wise. Boston can afford to toss in a lotto ticket if need be.
I just think the Sox can have it all, I guess. Keep Duran in center, put Anthony in left and Abreu in right, and let Ceddanne be super-sub. I think the White Sox will take less than Abreu and like it. I think they'd be happy with Mayer and Monegro or Perales. And I doubt anyone many will be willing to or can match that.
Kutter has more control, but is two years older, had a 98 ERA+ (with a FIP worse that that) and led the league in homers allowed. He will always take the ball, which is a very good thing, but it's not like he's really good.
I share your anxiety about Crochet's injury history and lack of proven results as a #1. But the greater factor than years of control here is his age; after all, he's already expressed a desire to extend. He doesn't turn 26 until the end of June; that's less than two months older than Yamamoto was coming into this season.
Some good stuff in this post, but Abreu is significantly more likely to be traded than Montgomery. He’s a player with monster upside that I think the Sox were absolutely thrilled to land in the draft.
Agreed. If the cost to get this guy would be what nattysez suggests, count me out. NFW. I like him as an option, but he's nowhere near what Chris Sale was. He's not even as good as Chris Sale is NOW.
If Mayer was healthy all of last year it’s a no brainer he’s more valuable. Due to his nagging injury history now, there are real concerns.
I would think the Sox brass would much rather trade Abreu. Would you disagree?
Is there a need to extend him, at least in terms of getting a trade done? It's not like Crochet can nix a deal absent an extension. If the White Sox get an offer they like, he's going where they send him, extension or not.
What would it realistically take to extend him now though? Maybe if there’s a strong desire on the players side to avoid risk, but for all the reasons folks have said, essentially a small but impressive performance sample, he’d be pretty smart to keep kicking ass for another year unless he’s got someone who’s willing to pay a premium for the (potential) upside.
Nattysez' package is on the expensive side, but while Crochet doesn't have Sale's track record, he's also two years younger than Sale was when acquired.
The case for Crochet is also that because he's 25 (!!!) and has been vocal about wanting an extension, we could give him a healthy raise without committing us deep into his 30s.
True, but he’s already under control for his age 26-27 seasons. So any extension is for years 28+.
You’re right, there is no requirement that they sign him to an extension. I just doubt they or other teams seriously pursue his acquisition without being sure they can extend him.
The tricky thing in this case is that there’s not much distinction between a strategy of acquiring pitchers in their twenties, which is constructive, and practice of not spending money, which is restrictive.
Hard disagree. If Crawford can cut down on his HR rate, he's a borderline elite starter. He ranked among some of the best pitchers in the league in many metrics.
I will amend my sentiment: If you can get Crochet for Abreu and Crawford or something, by all means! Then, say, sign Fried and suddenly you've got a high quality rotation.
Sorry - I just said what you said, having not read your response before I responded to a different response with a response which is exactly the same thing you said in your response, so I'm responding now to acknowledge that. In response.
Sean Murphy as well, within a week of being dealt, but you're right. It's not really a thing. Without a hard cap especially.
Seriously, not sure why people seem so comfortable giving up a gold glover who can hit like Abreu. I mean, Jesus, not all of our top prospects are going to pan out. Are other teams offering better prospects than Mayer or Teel?
It’s because they have Roman Anthony waiting in the wings. Anthony might not be as good defensively, but he is a good defensive CF right now, so RF shouldn’t be a problem for him. Add in the offensive output and the five year age difference, and Anthony’s just a better bet.
Extensions contingent for a trade tend to be for players that only have one year of control left (e.g. Olsen and Castillo) or as a part of convincing a player to waive a no-trade (the Schilling trade, for example). The former is almost always driven by the acquiring team as a way to justify a higher prospect cost. The odd thing here is folks seem to think it's a prerequisite to be involved in trade negotiations at all. It really shouldn't be.
Speaking strictly for myself, the reason I mention an extension is to justify the players being discussed. I'm not looking to move at least 5 years of Abreu for 2 years of Crochet.
I am a big Wilyer fan. But I can see the logic of using him in this deal. Also: we should all be glad he won the GG, which can only increase his value.
I don't think it ever really happens, since it requires an actual negotiation. Remember AGon to the Sox? They got a negotiating window and didn't sign him, but it's pretty clear that they did all the work and outlined the deal, traded for him, and then extended him once it shifted the tax hit into the future. My guess is that everyone has kind of an idea of what a Crochet extension will look like, maybe even from checking in over the trade deadline.
To your point (not that I'm necessarily advocating this, but I'm just hopefully furthering the discussion)... if the Sox did trade Mayer and get Crochet or some other starting pitcher, who could the Sox plug into the SS position? Well, short-term, the answer is Trevor Story. But they also have Rafaela, who isn't a great bat but whose bat would likely be sufficient for a SS, plus he adds speed, athleticism, and (if he plays SS regularly) defense.
