I'd be uncomfortable moving any of the big 4 for Crochet, although in theory Mayer is the most expendable of the four. Still not one I would want to give up.
Hooking Crochet? 12/8 update: Rumors of Red Sox "just on the periphery," "not aggressors at all" at this point.
- Thread starter The Gray Eagle
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I’m with you. I’m far from a prospect humper but would much rather just sign Fried/Burnes and keep the prospects. But if we’re trading one of these guys, I need a guy with more years of control than Crochet.
I pay for one writer on Patreon. It’s for fantasy baseball but the writer is really good at predicting successful players. He has Crochet behind only Skenes and Skubal (Ohtani is #1 overall) for dynasty rankings:
29) Garrett Crochet - CHW, LHP, 25.9 - Paul Skenes is the no doubt #1 dynasty pitcher in the game. I'm not arguing that ... buuuuuuuuuuuut ... what if Crochet is actually better than him? He put up a better K% (35.1% vs. 33.1%), BB% (5.5% vs. 6.2%), Chase% (33.5% vs. 30.9%), and a much better whiff% (33.0% vs. 28.7%). His 97.2 MPH 4-seamer put up a 31.4% whiff% while Skenes' 98.8 MPH 4-seamer put up a 24.2% whiff%. Crochet's cutter put up a 32.7% whiff% while Skenes' sinker notched a 29.3% whiff%. Crochet's sweeper notched a 42.7% whiff% while Skenes' sweeper notched a 22.6% whiff% and his curve notched a 33.7% whiff%. They are both beastly athletes. I described the 6'6'', 245 pound Crochet as a WWE Ballerina in my March Mailbag Podcast. Chicago is trash, so he won't beat Skenes in wins, but just judging who is the better pitcher, I wouldn't be so sure the answer is Skenes. Now along with wins and quality starts, Skenes dusted him on ERA (3.58 vs. 1.96), and even though their xERA's were much much closer (2.83 vs. 2.50), I do think that matters. Crochet also has more of a track record of control problems than Skenes does. Like I said, Skenes is the undeniable #1 dynasty pitcher in the game ... but maybe ... he won't be at the end of 2025. And with Crochet on the trade block, he could get a major team upgrade in the near future. - 2025 Projection: 13/3.03/1.03/230 in 170 IP
29) Garrett Crochet - CHW, LHP, 25.9 - Paul Skenes is the no doubt #1 dynasty pitcher in the game. I'm not arguing that ... buuuuuuuuuuuut ... what if Crochet is actually better than him? He put up a better K% (35.1% vs. 33.1%), BB% (5.5% vs. 6.2%), Chase% (33.5% vs. 30.9%), and a much better whiff% (33.0% vs. 28.7%). His 97.2 MPH 4-seamer put up a 31.4% whiff% while Skenes' 98.8 MPH 4-seamer put up a 24.2% whiff%. Crochet's cutter put up a 32.7% whiff% while Skenes' sinker notched a 29.3% whiff%. Crochet's sweeper notched a 42.7% whiff% while Skenes' sweeper notched a 22.6% whiff% and his curve notched a 33.7% whiff%. They are both beastly athletes. I described the 6'6'', 245 pound Crochet as a WWE Ballerina in my March Mailbag Podcast. Chicago is trash, so he won't beat Skenes in wins, but just judging who is the better pitcher, I wouldn't be so sure the answer is Skenes. Now along with wins and quality starts, Skenes dusted him on ERA (3.58 vs. 1.96), and even though their xERA's were much much closer (2.83 vs. 2.50), I do think that matters. Crochet also has more of a track record of control problems than Skenes does. Like I said, Skenes is the undeniable #1 dynasty pitcher in the game ... but maybe ... he won't be at the end of 2025. And with Crochet on the trade block, he could get a major team upgrade in the near future. - 2025 Projection: 13/3.03/1.03/230 in 170 IP
If it comes with an extension, I’m ok with both. For 2 years? Doesn’t make much sense to me, this team likely isn’t contending in that window.
While a bit risky, I'd like to know what a Crochet/Robert duo costs. Mayer/Casas/Abreu/plus? Both contracts (Robert/3 years, Crochet/2 years) are well below market, so it wouldn't prohibit supplemental FA spending. I certainly understand the argument of keeping the organizational depth and signing FAs, but if you "buy out" both players' cheap years to extend them through their prime years, you potentially avoid having to pay any of these FA until their 37+.
Crochet is 25 and Robert is 27. Having a pitcher from 25 to 32 and an OF from 27-32 > than 31-37 (Fried) and 32-37 (Teo), right?
Robert's health issues are concerning, however.
I really don’t like how casually Casas has been thrown into every mix. He’s a favorite of mine on the current squad. The Sox have not been terribly likable to last few years because they have had limited players that are genuinely fun to watch.
If Casas was on my team, I would love the bat, love the personality, be a little nervous about the defense but hope it could improve, but I would be petrified that a guy with such a fast swing tore cartilage in his ribcage just by swinging that hard.
It honestly did not occur to me that it wouldn't be, every swing has a violent twisting motion of the top half of the body, and generally the faster the better.
I am certainly not a medical professional in any way, shape or form, just saying how I would feel if he was on my team.
He is on my team and I do worry about this. It was such an unusual injury and I just don't have a sense whether it was a freak thing, or it's something that could happen repeatedly. I don't recall there being a lot of clarity about it in the reports, either.
Casas has a very fast swing - 74.6 mph. I would hope all the yoga would help avoid rib and torso injuries.
Lots of players have fast, violent swings and injuries like Casas sustained are so rare it has to be considered a freak thing. The only thing that could change my mind on that is if it does happen to him again and in the same way. Until that happens, if it ever happens, there's no reason to believe it's going to be a chronic, recurring issue.
I broke a rib sneezing when I was 25…. I’ve had many, many a much more violent sneezing fit since then without breaking a rib. But it always crosses my mind when I feel a sneeze coming on. I try to relax rather than tighten up.
Not the same thing obviously but seems similarly freakish and avoidable
Not the same thing obviously but seems similarly freakish and avoidable
That must have been some sneeze. I've got a good Austin allergist for you.
With a free agent you pay for all of the years they built up their track record. And what you get is their decline. You trade for young pitchers to get their best years, but you have to do that before they have a free agent level track record. There is risk both ways, but in the end I'd want as much of a good player's prime as I can get.
They absolutely NEED at least one ToR SP - that should be the #1 priority and their primary focus. Whether by trade or FA signing, I don't care - whatever it takes to get the job done.
Beyond that, they could:
1. Look to add another SP (a #2 or 3), but not essential unless they are sending Crawford out (most likely in a package for a ToR SP);
2. Look to add a RH bat, although I don't think this is essential either. I don't think it's worth committing 5-7 years for Bregman or Santander. And adding a veteran RH bat probably necessitates a trade of one of Casas, Abreu or Duran, or one of the top 4 prospects, which doesn't seem worth it to me. As others have said, I'd rather ride with the kids to start and see how things shape up, and trade for a bat later if necessary (I don't think it will be).
3. Shore up the bullpen with another FA signing.
4. Carson Kelly - they need another catcher, at least until Teel is ready.
Beyond that, they could:
1. Look to add another SP (a #2 or 3), but not essential unless they are sending Crawford out (most likely in a package for a ToR SP);
2. Look to add a RH bat, although I don't think this is essential either. I don't think it's worth committing 5-7 years for Bregman or Santander. And adding a veteran RH bat probably necessitates a trade of one of Casas, Abreu or Duran, or one of the top 4 prospects, which doesn't seem worth it to me. As others have said, I'd rather ride with the kids to start and see how things shape up, and trade for a bat later if necessary (I don't think it will be).
3. Shore up the bullpen with another FA signing.
4. Carson Kelly - they need another catcher, at least until Teel is ready.
He may well be worth having around after Teel is ready as a replacement to what Wong brings behind the plate and in case Teel stumbles.
Puts into perspective all of our proposed deals with Abreu as the headliner. Ain’t gonna come close unless the market somehow craters.
Yeah, if I'm Breslow that would have been enough for me to not call back because they clearly want to negotiate outside the realm of good faith.
Or the White Sox ain't gonna move Crochet unless they wake up and smell the coffee.
He’ll be on the O’s.
I get them wanting Anthony. They should ask for more than Abreu and they will get get more.
I get them wanting Anthony. They should ask for more than Abreu and they will get get more.
I absolutely agree they will get more than Abreu (I think we overrate Abreu here, and I think the national fandom underrates him, and think his real value lies somewhere in between), but asking for Anthony should be a non-starter for the Red Sox.
I would also put Campbell in that boat, as well.
Agree on every point. If Mayer wasn’t a chronic injury concern he’d be a perfect trade for them…. But his value because of that concern puts him south of Abreu.
Roman and Campbell and Teel are untouchable IMO…. Or obviously if Detroit was talking Skubal they’d be available….the Sox have a gulf between their untouchables and highly valued but “blocked” by still-you g and controlled guys.
The O’s match up too well.
Heyman reporting that he's about to sign with the Cubs.
That is the problem with the offseason and wish lists. There are 29 other teams with holes to fill and money to fill them with but after the same players often. Sox do have an advantage over many of their competitord: a wealth of young cheap assets. I think they will have to trade some to improve the roster, as much as folks don't want to do that, as many free agents will, even if money equal, decide to stay with their current teams (Teoscar perhaps) or may have family preferences or connections to other teams.
Let's see what they end up with. I won't be surprised if the White Sox wind up with a deal somewhat close in value to Anthony. Two years of a a cheap SP with elite potential when the FA market looks kind of crazy could be really tempting for a lower payroll team that thinks they might be competitive.
I guess it only takes one sucker, but this is exactly the same playbook that failed with Cease last year. Their ask on Robert Jr. has reportedly been astronomical as well and he straight up sucked this year!
Yup, exactly. It's been hard for teams like the White Sox to find deals like this. How many times does a player like Crochet get moved in a deal like that? I honestly can't think of any examples.
I think the big difference (for now) is that last year FA SPs like Snell and Montgomery didn't get signed until late, whereas this year I think they're likely to sign much sooner.
Maybe.
In his last season with the White Sox, Cease had 2.4 WAR, a 3.72 FIP, and a terrible WHIP of 1.41. He also had a pretty good year with the Padres this past season and it looks now like they might have gotten a good bargain.
This past season Crochet had 4.1 WAR, 2.69 FIP, and a 1.06 WHIP.
Maybe the White Sox overplay their hand, and that won't be surprising either, but I think someone is going to pay a high prospect price. And it might even turn out to be a good deal. Crochet could be special.
Benintendi and Moncada were the #1 and #2 prospects in 2017 when the Sale trade happened. Devers was not far behind. Obviously, Sale was a way more established MLB pitcher at that time.
Another caveat is the Red Sox in 2016 were already a playoff team and Sale was a "finishing touch" to a World Series caliber team.
In my opinion, it would take at least 1 of the Big 4 prospects to get a deal done here. Since the White Sox don't have a lottery pick either, they'll probably want 1 or 2 younger, less established prospects as well.
My fear is that the Red Sox will lose out on Fried/Burnes/Buehler and then be pot committed to a Crochet trade. The Red Sox have a lot of potential tied up in their top prospects, but are in a spot now where they need a top tier pitcher in order to make the playoffs. The White Sox are bad and poorly run, but I can't blame them for starting the negotiation at the very top of the Red Sox farm system.
Another caveat is the Red Sox in 2016 were already a playoff team and Sale was a "finishing touch" to a World Series caliber team.
In my opinion, it would take at least 1 of the Big 4 prospects to get a deal done here. Since the White Sox don't have a lottery pick either, they'll probably want 1 or 2 younger, less established prospects as well.
My fear is that the Red Sox will lose out on Fried/Burnes/Buehler and then be pot committed to a Crochet trade. The Red Sox have a lot of potential tied up in their top prospects, but are in a spot now where they need a top tier pitcher in order to make the playoffs. The White Sox are bad and poorly run, but I can't blame them for starting the negotiation at the very top of the Red Sox farm system.
I think this is understating things a little. He'd been in the top 5 of Cy Young voting 4 years in a row. He'd thrown 200 innings in 3 of the last four years. He was one of the very best pitchers in all of baseball. And you were gonna get at least three years of Sale, as his contract had two years and an option.
Crochet is exciting, but he's never thrown 150 innings in a single season before. I think the White Sox are going to get something good...I just don't think it'll be as good as they're hoping. Other teams are going to look at Crochet, the worries about his mechanics, the two years they're going to get him for, and they're going to balk at the price CWS asking for. But like you said--can't blame em for trying.
Cease also had two very good seasons prior where he garnered Cy votes, whereas Crochet was limited to 3-4 innings in the 2nd half of last year due to his innings jump. yes, he could be elite, but the track record is simply not there yet.
Kelly might seem like a small piece, but IMO this is a guy whose market isn't going to be impacted much by the Soto deal. Considering some of the concerns about Wong, I think he might have been the best available place holder for Teel and possible replacement for Wong once Teel is promoted. IMO, the Sox should have locked him up a few days ago. A slight over pay for a guy like him shouldn't prevent the team from making other moves. 35 year old Yasmani Grandal anyone?
Edited to apologize for encroaching on the Crochet thread. Was just responding to another post without realizing which thread I was in.
It would be a massively precedent setting deal. The top overall prospect doesn't get traded very often and when they do, its for someone like Sale, not someone like Crochet. You also have to keep in mind that this player demanded an extension to pitch in the post season this summer. That means he's going to come at a premium $$$ price as well as prospect capital. He's an awesome pitcher but I don't think he gets close to this kind of value in a trade. The white sox floated ridiculous packages for Cease last offseason with the same control and a more consistent track record and got pennies compared to an asset of Roman Anthony's value.
When you look at the other teams rumored to be in on them and their ask for bats in a return, I don't think they get that kind of package. The O's could give them Mayo or Basallo but both are probably 1b types as Mayo is a poor defender and Basallo likely doesn't stay behind the plate. The Reds have pitching but no hitting prospects of that caliber. The cubs have some guys, but no one close to what the Sox or O's could offer. I just don't see it. Maybe I'll be wrong.
When I said "somewhat close in value" to Anthony, I was thinking a top 15 prospect like one of the Baltimore guys. That said, I didn't realize Baseball America had Anthony #1 or know what kind of consensus there is about that assessment. And yeah, maybe I'll be wrong. I just think a fair amount of the discussion on the main board lately undersells how hard it is to deal for good young pitching with some years of control left. Of course most of that discussion is about Jared Jones or Seattle pitchers who aren't even on the market, but I think Crochet has a piece of that discussion too.
Ok fair enough. Anthony, I think, is a cut above any of those other guys due to age and performance. I think Crochet is kind of a unique animal. Usually someone with 2 years of control has more of a track record, but that TJ in year 2 robbed him of a lot of playing time while he was accruing service time. I also think the contract demand is going to lower the package they can expect. He's going to want $30-$35m a year in an extension THIS YEAR if he really did ask for an extension to pitch in the post season and that wasn't just a tactic.
Jared Jones, I feel differently. He has 5 years of control left, only one fewer than a prospect coming up this April. He has very good numbers under the hood for a first year player and I think the cost to acquire someone like that would be so prohibitive as to make it insane to talk about.
I thought the extension request to pitch in the post season last season was interesting. My read on it at the time was that he really didn't want to risk pushing further over the innings limit he worked out with Chicago without some financial security because of health risk, but that it wouldn't be an issue at all coming into a new season. I haven't seen anything to change my mind, but I haven't been looking either. But yeah, I doubt he'll demand a big extension to pitch this year, even if it includes the playoffs. Given that he pitched 146 innings, I think he'll be good to go for a full workload this season.
It would be pretty interesting if he demanded an extension to pitch this year though.
Of course they are going to ask for Anthony.
When they traded Cease to the Padres they probably asked for Ethan Salas first but they ended up trading him for Drew Thorpe (MLB #85) plus others.
Yeah, not only is Crochet not 2017 Chris Sale, but Boston's 2017 #1 and #2 rated prospects are not 2024's #1 rated MLB prospect.
There is NFW he's ballsy enough to ask for that and if he is, he's more delusional than the White Sox.
I haven’t read anywhere where he’d be demanding one now- but presumably any team trading for him would have an eye on him pitching another possible 30-35 innings beyond a regular season in the playoffs which would be a crazy innings jump.
I could totally see him demanding that extension… If he sticks with Chicago for another season he likely would be able to slowly amp up the innings and reduce injury risk looking towards FA.
I still think the O’s will get him. They have talent at all the positions where they have tradeable assets both above and below them
Would it? Guys don't usually get to 200 regular season innings anymore. Only four did it last year and Logan Gilbert had the most at 208.
The most IP Crochet had before last season was 54, the season before his injury. That jumped to 146 last year. Carlos Rodon for the Yankees had 32 starts last year plus 4 in the playoffs. 175 IP in the regular season plus 20 more in the playoffs. I'd be surprised if any team needed Crochet to do more than that, and I don't think a jump from 146 to 195 is crazy. And of course if a team does have concerns about it, they can manage him like they have concerns about and skip a few starts if necessary and still have him ready for the playoffs. Teams do it every year.
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