Hooking Crochet? 12/8 update: Rumors of Red Sox "just on the periphery," "not aggressors at all" at this point.
- Thread starter The Gray Eagle
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JP Morosi was just on Hot Stove a few minutes ago and threw some cold water on this trade. He said the White Sox know they’re years away from competing and want prospects, not 25 year olds.
I have also thought of the White Sox dangling both Crochet and Robert for an absolute hall. In this world, what would the Sox have to give up to land them both, knowing they have high ceilings but injury concerns? Abreu, Casas, Hamilton, Crawford and Priester?
I think that's probably an overpay from the Red Sox, but you'd most certainly have to include Abreu and Casas with one other substantial piece (Hamilton level or higher).
Why would we want to do that?
Luis Roberts Jr just put up .5 fWAR in a yet another injury-riddled season with a 33% k rate. He posted a slugging percentage south of .400 and a OBP south of .300. So on top of being unreliable, he's also not been performing. His K rate has gone up each of the last two years. There's no doubt he's been an exciting player, but next year the contract is for 15 million, and the club options are for 20 million apiece. Fangraphs is projecting him for 2.7 fWAR, marginally more than Wilyer is projected (and less than Wilyer produced just last year).
If the Sox think he's likely at all to continue to perform like he did this past year, I don't know if I'd want him on the roster over Abreu at that AAV, to be honest, nevermind dealing 5 years of Abreu for three expensive years of a guy who can't stay on the field.
I don't think CWS deals him this offseason, to be honest. I think they hold on to him into next year, hope he stays healthy and performs, and then try to deal him at the deadline. Cause they're not going to get anything good for him right now.
Honestly I don’t get the obsession with Robert. Everything about him screams five tool player that doesn’t have the sixth tool, actually being good. I think Chicago waits until he loses all possible trade value and sells him for pennies on the dollar.
That makes sense to me.
I think a fair number of Sox fans are overvaluing Abreu. If he goes out in a Crochet deal - it's to a team that wants him and is willing to give up prospects which we can add to and flip for Crochet.
Ditto Duran or even Casas.
LOL. If the Sox do that they are run about as well as the A's.
Castrovinci isn't an idiot, though, as far as I can tell (I read his book, and, while not adding a lot of insight, it was written well enough), but I am also unclear on whether or not he has any real "insider" knowledge or takes about anything.
It doesn't really matter if he has insider knowledge or not. It's pure throwing shit against the wall to give the talking heads something to fill 10 minutes of air time. Everyone's a bit bored this time of year. It's why this thread has 500+ posts and there are 37 Soto threads. We're all starved for news and things to talk about. The only difference between us and the media people is they're motivated to say more outrageous things to get (and keep) attention.
Why is that deal so outrageous? Allows the team to hold on to the big 4. Not saying I’d do it, but if you had a replacement for Casss lined up, for example, it seems plausible.
I think it is outrageous because I am not as sold on Crochet being the inning eating ace that everyone seems to be.
He "could" be, and he pitched well in the second half next year, but he also didn't go over 76 pitches thrown after July 6th, at least in part because he made it known that he would refuse to pitch in the post season if the team he was on didn't sign him to an extension first. While I respect the honesty and understand that pitchers should be looking out for themselves in this day and age, because very few teams will, none of that screams to me "Guy I want on my team at all costs".
Giving up four years of Casas for him, a guy who can potentially impact the game 155+ times per season, PLUS a top 100 prospect who the team thinks is a game changing defensive RFer (and who probably would have been a top 5 pick if not for injury), PLUS a solid pitching prospect who has electric stuff but needs refinement PLUS the Red Sox Latin Player of the Year, who dominated the DSL at 18 years old with an extremely advanced and mature approach to baseball, would just be bonkers to me.
That’s a lot to give up for a guy with Crochet’s track record. Casas has multiple years of control and is one of the better young power hitters in the game. Montgomery is nearly a top 50 prospect without having ever played a game. The proposed deal kind of reminds me of what San Diego gave up for 2 years of Soto.
Because Garrett Crochet isn't Pedro Martinez. He's not even Chris Sale. And that deal dwarves what the Sox paid for either of them.
Feels like revisionist history, considering Moncada was one of the best prospects in baseball at the time, and that Kopech was also well regarded.
The A's are run fine on the field.
That reads like a deal that made up on BTV, which presently (IMO) undervalues Casas because of his missed time. Obviously, you need a methodology, and there will always be edge cases, but here are their numbers for the players involved:
Crochet 48
Casas 29 — this is the one that feels low to me.
Montgomery 15
Cespedes 9
Sandlin 5
I would consider Casas and Montgomery or Casas and Cespedes/Sandlin. But all four is a ton.
Right, but they were prospects. They hadn't proven anything yet at the big league level. They were great to dream on but carried a bigger flameout risk than Casas. And what have they done? Moncada has 13 career fWAR (largely from just two good seasons), and Kopech just 2.1.
When Chris Sale was traded to the Red Sox, he had been in the top 6 in Cy Young voting 5 seasons in a row, and had not been under 175 innings pitched in any one of those seasons. Garrett Crochet has never received a Cy Young vote, and almost made it to 150 innings this season.
Yes, the Sale deal was huge, Moncada and Kopech were both very good prospects, but the deal including Casas, who at 24 is already a better pure hitter than Moncada with exceptional command of the strike zone, plus all of those other players, is just silly talk.
I would do the trade as listed for Sale in 2016, without a second thought. I would hang up the phone if that is what they asked for for Crochet.
Agreed that I'd hang up the phone quickly on a Casas-Montgomery+ proposal. And that Crochet is not in the same league as Sale as an acquisition target.
But remember (also responding to @Fishy1 above) that Moncada was the #1 prospect in baseball when he was dealt. The widely-held expectation at the time of that trade was that Moncada would turn out to be a better hitter than Casas, at a more premium position. It didn't turn out that way, but hindsight is always 20/20. Roman Anthony is "just a prospect", but prospects can and do turn out to be incredibly valuable from time to time. #1 prospects especially.
Regardless, Crochet and Sale are entirely different beasts.
I think the best Crochet trade piece is Mayer, along with some young lotto tickets. That does assume Story will be a good starting SS for at least a couple years and I suppose there's no great recent evidence that's a good assumption, though having Grissom and Campbell as SS Plan Bs isn't terrible.
I guess I’m in the minority; I would rather hold on to Mayer than Montgomery and certainly Casas. Casas is a solid enough player, but a defensively challenged 1b with an 800-850 OPS shouldn’t be irreplaceable. Who knows re Montgomery, he hasn’t played yet!
It’s definitely an interesting thought exercise. Everyone in that Mayer, Anthony, Campbell, Teel, Casas, Montgomery group is capable of being a star. Glad I’m not the one trying to figure out who is more likely than the rest.
Personally, if they don’t land Soto, I’d rather just pay the FA freight on a Fried/Burnes + Flaherty/Buehler/Eovaldi or something like that combo and keep ALL of the young talent. But if they think Crochet is a not-so-distant future ace, they’re going to have to give up 1-2 guys who they’d prefer not to deal, in an ideal world. I bet opposing GMs probably have similar valuation differences that this board has. Such a tough job.
They can’t keep all the young talent though, the math just doesn’t work- there aren’t enough roster spots. The key is figuring who to trade and when, but I don’t think holding on to everyone is viable. Granted, it’s not a terrible problem to have- but some of the Sox current assets will never be worth more than they are now- identifying which ones is no easy task, of course:
I agree 100%, one of our main advantages is that we have the money to sign top tier talent which obviously doesn't require giving up prospects. And Fried or Burnes are fantastic options in FA.
If we do somehow manage to land Soto then acquiring Crochet in a trade centered around Abreu seems like a no brainer. With Soto, Abreu doesn't really have a place on the roster with Anthony knocking on the door. And the White Sox would probably go for a trade including Abreu/Campbell+a young lower level prospect.
you lost me at Abreu/ Campbell. KC looks to be special, I would make him all but untouchable
Not asking this to be snarky, I'm genuinely curious. Campbell is listed as a 2B/OF on Baseball Prospectus, I have read that he can play almost anywhere. I think I've read somewhere on this board that he might be able to play 3B. But do we know how good of a defensive player he is at any position? Is he a defensive asset or is he just "capable" at some positions?
If they get Soto, why not just dump Yoshida, and keep Abreu/Refsnyder in RF? Then when Anthony comes up on May 30, he platoons with Ceddane.
I am dubious about Abreu alone for Crochet, let along Campbell too. Casas? Casas+? Get outta here.
Wilyer is so under-rated: a good great defensive RF, who has proven he can hit, takes a walk and had 5 years of control remaining. If the White Sox don't think that is enough for Crochet, the Red Sox should definitely move on. Soto would be nice, but all that really needs to happen is to overspend on an SP1, get a couple BP arms, and we are good. We can re-assess next July when we can auction off one of our 4-6 plus plus OFers, and/or multiple good MIs, for whatever it seems we need most then.
I am dubious about Abreu alone for Crochet, let along Campbell too. Casas? Casas+? Get outta here.
Wilyer is so under-rated: a good great defensive RF, who has proven he can hit, takes a walk and had 5 years of control remaining. If the White Sox don't think that is enough for Crochet, the Red Sox should definitely move on. Soto would be nice, but all that really needs to happen is to overspend on an SP1, get a couple BP arms, and we are good. We can re-assess next July when we can auction off one of our 4-6 plus plus OFers, and/or multiple good MIs, for whatever it seems we need most then.
Casas-Woo makes sense on paper but it would be risky. Woo isn't Crochet, and if his numbers are T-Mobilized, there is a good chance it's an overpay, with the Sox scrambling for a 1b. For the Mariners, they will undoubtedly ask for a Crochet-like package because of the demand. I vote no.
Bieber... I'd want really solid info about his availability, e.g. May?, before another post-injury project. If they sign Fried first, then sure.
I'm gonna challenge you to demonstrate how STL and OAK's closers are of equivalent value, given that one comes with 1 year of control and the other with 5.
This sure would set us up for a fun 2025, but I think we lost that trade. In this case, just make Kutter (or Houck) the closer, and keep Wilyer in RF.
They’re not of equal value- I’d much rather have Mason Miller, hence the + if needed (expected) for added enticement in that scenario...and didn’t realize its only 1 year of Helsley, so that would be too much….main thought being that Abreu and Crawford would be good pieces to send out if the other signings were made, and bullpen still needed addressing…
Agree with this take. Plus: 1) As many have said I don't think CHW have interest in Casas with their far-off window and 2) it doesn't make much sense with their farm system for the Red Sox to trade any 20+ year old pitching prospects they like (and obviously Sandlin is one they like considering they traded a solid big league reliever for him).
Out of curiosity, where do you get your future WAR numbers from? I was thinking Montgomery seemed lowish then I was reminded JBJ only produced 13.5 fWAR, so I'm curious to see more predictions.
The Orioles seem to be handling it just fine and they've been in their window a few years longer than us. But yes even they made a few big trades and of course regret losing some assets (Joey Ortiz put up a 3-fWAR as a rookie).
those aren’t future WAR, they’re BTV’s surplus value estimates.
so they are an estimate of future salary subtracted from an estimate of future WAR coarsely converted into dollars. There’s a ton of error in this process obviously, but it yields a concept of trade value that roughly corresponds to trades that actually happen.
Preach . As long as we really do spend real money on one big fish (Burnes/Fried-level)
Heh if Crochet had 49 future WAR in him, I’d ship that trade package out in a heartbeat. Jon Lester had 43 for his entire career.
Thanks for the info. So it's like future "profit".
I think the numbers are a bit low then, since at $10m/WAR, I think these guys will outdo these numbers:
Crochet 4.8 WAR
Casas 2.9 WAR
Montgomery 1.5 WAR
Cespedes 0.9 WAR
Sandlin 0.5 WAR
Crochet for example, who has two years of control left so might make only $10-15m in total the next two years, could easily drop 7-12 WAR in that timeframe after putting up 4.7 in his first full year as a young starter. That would be worth $70m-120m, so I'd put the low point of his future [non-injury] value at $70m-$10m = $60m. Which is greater than 4.8 WAR*10 =$48m.
Counter to my point: I suppose these BTV averages include occasional players that put up 4.7 WAR seasons and put up 0 in the next two. So even if they're infrequent there's a low floor dropping the averages.
Although this makes the other end of the spectrum hard to imagine. How can Sandlin be only worth 0.5 WAR of future value? For every TINSTAAPP that nets 0.0 WAR a few of them hit. And ones that can touch 100 like Sandlin tend to be the ones with big league success if they avoid injury.
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+1 For all of the plug and play failures that we have witnessed and cringed over these past few seasons, we're often quick to entertain this same exact idea when trying to justify potential trade/FA scenarios and how we might fashion a lineup around whatever the result might be.
Corcerning Campball perhaps, but this is a constant conversation concerning many players being discussed across these forums in an attempt to add players onto the roster and shoe horn them into positions that they are not familiar with in order to create a fantasy lineup. Some of these players might be able to make the transition, others not so much.
I think you kind of answered your own question: he’s essentially a lottery ticket.
Sandlin has great stuff but he’s still quite a way from being even a replacement level MLB pitcher, even if he stays healthy. Last year, his strikeout and walk numbers were good but he gave up 14 home runs (!) in just 57 innings. High BABIPs too. Happened in Portland as well as Greenville so it wasn’t just an artifact of the Greenville park.
Maybe he just had an extended run of bad luck, but maybe he’s also just getting tagged when hitters do make contact. If the latter, he could theoretically fix that, but if he doesn’t, he almost certainly can’t be successful giving up that much hard contact.
I feel pretty okay with trying guys out, at that age, at different positions in general. When Xander first came up he played a lot of third base after having been a shortstop basically his entire career. Mookie only got a few hundred innings as a center fielder in the minors before being thrust out there in the majors (and playing 2B most of his minor league career). If they feel good about playing him at SS, they'll go for it. Some have pointed out it might be bluster from the FO, or they might be overrating him. That's totally possible too.
My concern with him at 3B is the arm. It's not supposed to be very impressive. I just don't see them fully moving Devers off 3B yet. Getting some other guys innings there? Sure.
Montgomery has the profile of someone who could very quickly shoot up top 100 lists. The talent and pedigree are all there. Would have been a shoe in top 5 pick if not for his injury.
He seems like a really bad trade candidate. He could be the centerpiece of something significant 12 months from now.
Campbell was not in the top 20 of Soxprospects to start the season. He has one of the most insane rises we have ever seen. A faster and more impressive rise than Mookie. (Not saying he’s going to be Mookie, just comparing their minor’s path)
He’s the minor league player of the year in his FIRST full minor league season. His underlying metrics are all unbelievable.
All that to say, if there is someone who would move up the defensive spectrum it’s someone like Campbell. He’s really different.
I think his arm is solid average. From what I understand, his metrics at SS were quite good and again Abraham said they like him anywhere in the infield. I think he would be solid there, but he seems destined to play second base for this roster. Grissom seems more likely to get pushed off the dirt, given his limitations.
Conceptually, I agree with you. I was merely talking about Campbell - who I think is a different case.