Hold the Mayo? Evaluating Patriots coaching.

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kartvelo

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Any coach hire is wishcasting, unless they’re somehow getting Shanahan to come here. There is a very obvious argument to hire Vrabel: he has more of an established track record than any other candidate who’s going to be out there. Who is going to be available that has a better resume?
93408

Yes, I know he's no longer available.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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The coaching tree thing to me is one of the worst ways to analyze coaches. A lot of these guys learned or coached under multiple people. They are their own person. Some guys might have tried to be a BB clone (Patricia, Mangini) etc., but not all guys who coached under BB did that. To me it’s like a bad/poorly used attribute that doesn’t capture much. Andy Reid probably has as many guys who coached under him that failed as BB but that isn’t discussed much. It shouldn’t be. It doesn’t actually lead to much insight other then so and so isn’t Andy Reid.
The coaching tree argument has only been used to shit on BB and nothing more. There's no other coach where it gets used to denigrate them.
 

rodderick

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I would generally consider him part of the tree, the vast majority of his high level coaching experience came under someone who is undoubtedly in the tree (O'Brien). I think the idea that only the guys who are direct assistants are in the tree is a silly way to look at it, that is not really a tree, that's just a guy's assistants.

Not that it matters, he has his own experience we can look to (and amusingly it does look a great deal like BOB or some of the other BB assistants).

But also, hiring the coach first is a mistake, making guys like Vrabel coach/GMs is a mistake.
Bill O"Brien had 13 years of coaching experience before coming to work for Bill, I think it's pretty arguable to state he's part of the tree himself, actually.
 

dynomite

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Maybe I missed this recent "report", but what is Doug Kyed referring to?

This tweet feels like it's missing a word? Did he mean to say a report that he is NOT assured to return next year?

Edit: Ah, I see additional context from the NESN recap:

The Athletic’s Dianna Russini, Boston Sports Journal’s Mike Giardi and others published varying reports about whether or not Mayo will return for a second campaign. Russini, specifically, reported Patriots owner Robert Kraft “privately assured” those close to him that Mayo will be given time to grow in the role.
Link
 
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NickEsasky

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Yeah, an owner providing a vote of confidence to their embattled coach always seems to work out. No coach was ever fired after that.
 

thurin68

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FWIW and probably not a hell of a lot, Zolak and Bertrand are chatting up Vrabel quite a bit as a preferred replacement for Mayo. Mainly using the argument he never had this good a QB to work with.
 

dynomite

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I’m starting to wonder if this is performance art at this point.

View: https://twitter.com/Ironhead334/status/1869429071295459618
It's incredible -- like an SNL skit. This is going to be one of the comments people refer to from Mayo for years alongside the "soft" comments after the London game.

If he could just keep his mouth shut. Make one almost pine for BBs death stare.
As a communications professional myself, it's an incredible contrast and example of what to do and not do in press conferences.

And Mayo was SO CLOSE! He started that answer by saying "I'm not going to talk about specific players, we all need to get better" -- that's it! That's the answer! Listen to yourself buddy!

Edit: I'm also an attorney, and it reminds me of how we'd prep experts and witnesses for depositions: "Give your response, and then shut the hell up."

Similarly here, the answer is "I'm not going to talk about specific players. We're 3-11. Clearly every one of us in this building has room to improve." Followed by beautiful, problem-free silence until the next question is asked.
 
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Trapaholic

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This guy had about 4-5 years to network around the league and build relationships with other football guys. Crazy to me that he wasn't able to use his leadership and communication skills, which are supposed to be his core competency, to sell the vision and bring in some outside minds.

Then we have this report, I forget which outlet, that said people who interviewed for various jobs found the conversations "light on football". That part is concerning because he either wasn't asking the right questions or literally doing all the talking in these interviews.
 

FL4WL3SS

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It's not TBD on his draft, after Maye it's looking like a complete waste of time.

Polk: bust
Wallace: injured
Robinson: absolutely terrible
Baker: can't see the field, even with our WR corps
Dial: 5 tackles this season
Milton: QB3
Bell: 1 reception for 1 yard

For a team that everyone said lacked talent, to get nothing from your final six picks in the draft is a WOEFUL return. (For comparison, mean old BB who everyone said couldn't draft got an All-Pro level CB with Gonzo at 17, plus White, Marpu, Jake Andrews, Sow, Pop, and Baringer in his last draft. Not the best ever but at least some of those guys can actually play in the NFL and did so in their first years. Boutte didn't play last but of course plays more this year, and Ryland stunk here but is now decent in AZ).

The Pats badly needed their draft picks to come in and contribute right away, and instead none of them are worth a damn after Maye. That's a huge missed opportunity to get the rebuild started, it's a big indictment of Wolf's drafting acumen, and it essentially punts the rebuild another year down the road like Maye's rookie contract ticks away.

Wolf fumbled a huge chance to quickly turn this franchise around, and it's extremely debatable whether he should be allowed the chance at another.
I'm going to quibble here a bit. The way the team came out of the bye week told me everything I need to know about the way this team has been coached this year and it's very clear to me that this coaching staff is not some to coach up the players on the roster. It very well may be that Wolfe bungled the draft, but I'm not ready to say that because I don't think this coaching staff has been able to get anything out of these players. It feels like a lost year for them and it's impossible to grade these picks.
 

Jettisoned

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If they dump Mayo and just hand the job to Vrabel without doing a proper search they've learned nothing. I'm not saying Vrabel would be a bad choice, although personally I think they need to move on from the Dynasty years and take a fresh start. But we are in this mess because they handed the job to Mayo without interviewing anyone else.
Do we know for sure they didn't look elsewhere? It's possible that nobody worth hiring even took their calls last season.

Whatever happened in last year's coaching search, it looks like they've found a QB, which likely makes the job a lot more attractive to the higher tier coaching candidates.

I think it's probably tough for coaches to overhaul their various processes mid-season, so I give Mayo a little bit of leeway on that. It's totally plausible to me that the current coaching staff could work on some stuff in the offseason and consistently make better decisions next season.

The problem for me is that we are throwing away a chunk of Maye's rookie deal waiting to see if Mayo can iron out the kinks, and it's not clear that it's worth it even if he does figure it out eventually.
 

Curt S Loew

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Do we know for sure they didn't look elsewhere? It's possible that nobody worth hiring even took their calls last season.

Whatever happened in last year's coaching search, it looks like they've found a QB, which likely makes the job a lot more attractive to the higher tier coaching candidates.
It was written into Mayo's contract. There was no search.
 

Helmet Head

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It only going to get worse. Fully expect them to get blown off the field this weekend and for Mayo to continue to make numerous missteps and gaffs along the way. The Russini report was likely accurate at the time but things change. Either Kraft admits he was wrong and cleans house or doesn't and the franchise / brand continues to take a hit. Pick your poison.

Mike Reiss turning this week was a indicator to me on where ownership and maybe Jonathan might be right now.
 

Reverend

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Maybe I missed this recent "report", but what is Doug Kyed referring to?

We appear to be in one of those moments where people are so irate about the team that it creates the illusion of new activity, when the reality is that there isn’t really very much going on at all.
 

dynomite

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We appear to be in one of those moments where people are so irate about the team that it creates the illusion of new activity, when the reality is that there isn’t really very much going on at all.
One of the best illustrations I've ever seen of Newton's First Law: "A body remains at rest, or in motion at a constant speed in a straight line, except insofar as it is acted upon by a force."
 

SMU_Sox

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We appear to be in one of those moments where people are so irate about the team that it creates the illusion of new activity, when the reality is that there isn’t really very much going on at all.
I agree. I would think though they are going to have to make changes to the coaching staff and front office though if not necessarily at the tippy-top levels.
 

8slim

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Kraft shouldn't be picking the coach is more my point.... he should hire an executive who knows what they are doing and let them make the call.
This is where I'm at. If they're going to make a move, and I doubt they will, then can Mayo *and* Wolf. Bring in a GM to rebuild this franchise and let him hire the head coach.

Personally, Vrabel does nothing for me. And if he wants to be GM too then absolutely no fucking way.
 

8slim

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Jungleland

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Yeah, I’m not in love with the Vrabel idea, especially not if it would happen in the same way the Mayo hire did (assurance the job is his and no real search). But the chatter about him coaching here feels significant to me in terms of there being at least a growing openness to a 1 and done for this regime.

In an ideal world, the Krafts are looking at starting with a blank slate and Vrabel is considered but not with any greater current level of likelihood the job will be his than any other candidate out there.
 

Van Everyman

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Am I the only one who doesn't give a shit about Mayo's press conferences? I get that he could use some media training -- but that's like 990th on the list of things this team needs to work on, and I don't think what he says means any more than what Bill said TBH.
 

astrozombie

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Am I the only one who doesn't give a shit about Mayo's press conferences? I get that he could use some media training -- but that's like 990th on the list of things this team needs to work on, and I don't think what he says means any more than what Bill said TBH.
If it was just that he was bad speaking with the media, that would be one thing. People would handwave that away. The fact that - as you put it - it is the 990th thing he is doing wrong is just indicative of a pattern of him not doing things well. FWIW, the only thing I care about with press conferences is whether the coach throws players under the bus because that has a tangible effect on some people. I would certainly not feel good if my boss went around saying I messed stuff up, even if he was the one who told me how to do the thing in question. I imagine players feel the same way. And Mayo does that, kind of a lot.
 

Van Everyman

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If it was just that he was bad speaking with the media, that would be one thing. People would handwave that away. The fact that - as you put it - it is the 990th thing he is doing wrong is just indicative of a pattern of him not doing things well. FWIW, the only thing I care about with press conferences is whether the coach throws players under the bus because that has a tangible effect on some people. I would certainly not feel good if my boss went around saying I messed stuff up, even if he was the one who told me how to do the thing in question. I imagine players feel the same way. And Mayo does that, kind of a lot.
Yeah but I think of all the things people could rightly complain about with Mayo, him losing the locker room isn’t one of them. Which suggests to me that the media and the fans are way more upset about these comments than the players are. And the latter is all I really care about.

I get that Bill trained us all to mostly want our football coaches to clam up. In the abstract I guess I also support that. But the vast majority of professional sports coaches use the media to call out their players from time to time and it seems to be fine.
 

dynomite

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Am I the only one who doesn't give a shit about Mayo's press conferences? I get that he could use some media training -- but that's like 990th on the list of things this team needs to work on, and I don't think what he says means any more than what Bill said TBH.
I'm not sure if you're the only one, but it's one of the most visible roles for a Head Coach that fans can see. He's literally the face and often the voice of the franchise.

I don't believe Mayo is calling the offensive plays, or getting the defensive front aligned on a specific down, and it's impossible to know how much his input is being reflected in the offensive and defensive planning from week-to-week. This is why head coaches are held so accountable for timeouts, end-of-game strategy, and media interactions. It's one of the few areas people who aren't in the building can evaluate.

And in 2024 in a rabid media environment like Boston, not being able to handle basic questions from the press turns into a distraction within minutes. In particular, a coach on a bad team taking gratuitous shots at specific players through the press -- who typically are not in a position to defend themselves -- is a hallmark of bad leadership. It gives us a peak behind the curtain at what playing for Mayo is like -- his decisiveness, his ability to practice what he preaches and take responsibility. And I don't like what I see.

In an ideal world, the Krafts are looking at starting with a blank slate and Vrabel is considered but not with any greater current level of likelihood the job will be his than any other candidate out there.
I see people continuing to say this, and I don't totally understand it. What currently available (and credibly reported to be interested) coach candidate has 4 winning seasons in the NFL (including 12 and 11-win seasons) on his resume?

You can decide to take a chance on "any other candidate out there" or another 1st time head coaching candidate in Ben Johnson or some other offensive guru. But Vrabel isn't a blank slate -- he's a demonstrated successful coach at the NFL level.
 
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Vrabel at least isn’t wildly unqualified like Mayo is/was but I don’t think he really solves the problem the Pats need to solve which is how to maximize Drake Maye and the rookie contract window. Which, to me, means offensive guru somewhere. Either (preferably) at head coach or an established high end OC (of which there are very few who are unemployed and/or seeking OC positions).

Honestly, if you’re going with a retread defensive guy to pair with AVP or other similar OC, I’d prefer Saleh or someone like that who at least doesn’t come with the “hard to navigate GM/coach relationship” baggage that Vrabel supposedly has.

If Vrabel weren’t a former Patriot, would people really be clamoring for him?
 

Jimbodandy

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I'm going to quibble here a bit. The way the team came out of the bye week told me everything I need to know about the way this team has been coached this year and it's very clear to me that this coaching staff is not some to coach up the players on the roster. It very well may be that Wolfe bungled the draft, but I'm not ready to say that because I don't think this coaching staff has been able to get anything out of these players. It feels like a lost year for them and it's impossible to grade these picks.
It's not at all impossible to grade these picks. It's quite simple really. It's an epic abortion of a draft, absent the one most important piece at the top.

That takes nothing away from anyone who thinks that Mayo is terrible.

There's probably some rotation guys in there, and maybe Polk figures it out eventually. But given the quantity and draft slot, we basically got nothing after Drake absent some guys taking up space because someone has to. Zero NFL starters likely, no plus guys for fuck sure.

The love child of peak Belichick and Vince Lombardi couldn't help Polk and Baker get separation and close their hands around a football, not would it help Wallace and Robinson not whiff on guys. That's on Wolf. Blame everything else on Mayo.
 

ObstructedView

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Maybe it's wishful thinking on my part, but it seems like after the Mayo debacle the organization can't go right back to the well with another popular former dynasty player - even if it's someone like Vrabel who has head coaching experience. I really hope the Krafts feel like they've gotten the "keep it in the family" sentiment out of their system and will look outside their clan to hire people with experience and stature for both GM and HC.
 

Rusty13

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Side note - the guy who runs that twitter account is one of my childhood best friends.
It's a pretty harsh but funny account that is focused mostly on Boston sports and media. I enjoy a lot (but not all) of his musings.
 

rodderick

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Vrabel at least isn’t wildly unqualified like Mayo is/was but I don’t think he really solves the problem the Pats need to solve which is how to maximize Drake Maye and the rookie contract window. Which, to me, means offensive guru somewhere. Either (preferably) at head coach or an established high end OC (of which there are very few who are unemployed and/or seeking OC positions).

Honestly, if you’re going with a retread defensive guy to pair with AVP or other similar OC, I’d prefer Saleh or someone like that who at least doesn’t come with the “hard to navigate GM/coach relationship” baggage that Vrabel supposedly has.

If Vrabel weren’t a former Patriot, would people really be clamoring for him?
He's one of the first names thrown around by pretty much every franchise with a HC opening. Bears and Jets fans are talking about him in a similar manner.
 

cshea

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He's one of the first names thrown around by pretty much every franchise with a HC opening. Bears and Jets fans are talking about him in a similar manner.
Part of that may be because there doesn't seem to be an abundance of quality candidates this hiring cycle. It has basically been Bill, Vrabel and Ben Johnson.

Johnson is the offensive wiz that everyone is fawning over. Vrabel is the veteran coach with some success. Who else is really out there at this point?
 

The Social Chair

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Part of that may be because there doesn't seem to be an abundance of quality candidates this hiring cycle. It has basically been Bill, Vrabel and Ben Johnson.

Johnson is the offensive wiz that everyone is fawning over. Vrabel is the veteran coach with some success. Who else is really out there at this point?
Joe Brady and Todd Monken if you're looking for an offensive guy.
 

Cellar-Door

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Part of that may be because there doesn't seem to be an abundance of quality candidates this hiring cycle. It has basically been Bill, Vrabel and Ben Johnson.

Johnson is the offensive wiz that everyone is fawning over. Vrabel is the veteran coach with some success. Who else is really out there at this point?
Brady, Monken, Coen, Evero, Minter, and more.

Vrabel has become the shorthand for "vet coach tough guy" in this cycle, but also a lot of it is really simple... he's well known. A lot of NFL fans have no idea who the OC for TB is, or the DC in LA. They do know Vrabel who was a HC in the league recently, had some success and who was already pretty well known as a star player on a SB team.
 

cshea

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Brady, Monken, Coen, Evero, Minter, and more.

Vrabel has become the shorthand for "vet coach tough guy" in this cycle, but also a lot of it is really simple... he's well known. A lot of NFL fans have no idea who the OC for TB is, or the DC in LA. They do know Vrabel who was a HC in the league recently, had some success and who was already pretty well known as a star player on a SB team.
Those are all first timers. My point was from a "buzz" perspective, Vrabel is really the only option on that has head coaching experience and is somewhat desireable.
 

BigJimEd

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PFF list from November does not include Vrabel. Former HC include Flores and Vance Joseph on the D side as well as Kingsbury. Obviously, none of those have the greatest track record as HC.
 

Cellar-Door

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Those are all first timers. My point was from a "buzz" perspective, Vrabel is really the only option on that has head coaching experience and is somewhat desireable.
I agree that Vrabel is the shorthand for "vet coach who our fans might like", BB was that for a while, and Kingbury until they tailed off. I think generally it is rare for their to be coaches who the public finds desirable and have a lot of experience, because most of the time if you have a lot of success as a coach you don't get fired. Vrabel didn't get the chance to truly bottom out before he got fired. I have a bit of a feeling that Vrabel is more the Belichick situation... his name recognition is high, but actual interest around the league is very low. He had basically zero interest last year, now maybe a team bites this year, but I bet the young offensive guys all have more suitors.... Owners generally want scheme coaches now who can pick up one side of the ball over vibes coaches (Mayo excluded) particularly negative re-inforcement guys like Vrabel and BB.
 

Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache

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If we're moving on from both Wolf and Mayo, then we should add the new GM before we add the new coach.

When the Athletic last did their annual poll of agents there were the list of people who were 'Future GMs to watch' and got votes as strong talent valuators
  • Ian Cunningham, Bears Assistant GM, 4 votes
  • Brandon Sosna, Washington SVP of football OPS, 3 votes
  • Trey Brown, Bengals Sr. Personnel Exec, 2 votes
  • Terrance Gray, Bills Director of Player Personnel, 2 votes
  • Mike Greensberg, Tampa Bay Assistant GM, 2 votes
  • Chris Shea, Chiefs VP of Football OPS, 2 votes
16 people received one vote apiece, although none of the 17 were from New England. (Wolf was the top vote-getter for this question in 2021)


Quotes:

“Ian Cunningham is a great talent evaluator. He’s fair with agents, not rigid. He comes off like he’s one of us, not some snob. Has an excellent demeanor for the top job.”

“Cunningham is so level-headed that he finds young evaluators and thinkers to build up his staff.”

“I can give several reasons for choosing Brandon Sosna. He is transparent and beyond intelligent. At a very young age, he has been a crucial figure in two organizations at a high level. He’s only 31 now. It’s a coup for Washington.”

“Trey (Brown) is already receiving GM interviews. His time is coming. I learn something whenever I listen to him discuss the talent evaluation exercise.”

“Depends on what you’re looking for, but Mike Greenberg is excellent with more of an operational than scouting background. Similar skill to Howie, and gets along with everyone.”

The general manager must have a firm grasp of money and talent and know how to deal with media and people. Not everyone can touch all those bases. Chris Shea does.”
 
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