Hold the Mayo? Evaluating Patriots coaching.

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johnmd20

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That's part fair but part reductive. Show me a dynasty that didn't have a great QB who didn't instill a winning culture? Tom buying in was critical.

BB did a lot of things that provided a winning edge. I think our resident Super Nomario did a great job outlining them in his book. Now to be fair this might have just been a one-liner and you were half kidding half serious. If so... apologies I take things too literally.
Half one liner, half serious.

The Pats haven't been within a million miles of a playoff win since Brady left. Their one playoff game was over in the first quarter. And now the team is one of the worst in the league two straight seasons.
 

dynomite

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The amazing thing to me is that Kraft hired a guy who had never been a head coach at any level. Had never been a coordinator at any level.

I can't recall anything like this happening in the league before.
Jeff Saturday is the first name that came to mind -- had never coached above HS, was grabbed out of an ESPN studio and made a head coach for the Colts with predictable results.
 

jsinger121

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The amazing thing to me is that Kraft hired a guy who had never been a head coach at any level. Had never been a coordinator at any level.

I can't recall anything like this happening in the league before.
Absolutely and frankly if Mayo got fired at the end of the year no team would hire him as their head coach let alone even a defensive coordinator. He's likely back to square one as a linebackers coach. This was such a dumb agreement by both parties. Frankly they should have let Mayo interview for other positions even defensive coordinators and taken the draft picks had he gotten a DC job. Then once BB was done, at least you can interview him in good faith and if he was your guy he would at least have had DC experience and a rolodex of other coaches he could have brought with him. He had none of those.
 

Pesky Pole

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Do you have a better chance at Ben Johnson if it’s a package deal from Detroit? Ray Agnew as GM and Johnson as HC. Agnew is a former player who spent years paying his dues as a scout before leading the Rams as head of scouting and then moving to the Lions as the Assistant GM. He’s widely credited with the Aaron Donald pick, taking Hutchinson over Thibodeaux, St. Brown, etc. It would seemingly align the GM and HC right out of the box
 

Hoya81

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The amazing thing to me is that Kraft hired a guy who had never been a head coach at any level. Had never been a coordinator at any level.

I can't recall anything like this happening in the league before.
It’s not that uncommon. Andy Reid was an OL and QB coach before taking over the Eagles. Dan Campbell has never been a coordinator.
 

rodderick

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Some guys get hired to be HC before becoming coordinators, it's just rare to see it happen with someone that had so little overall coaching experience. Sean McVay became a HC at 30 and had been a coach at the NFL and college levels for nine years at that point.
 

dynomite

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So, this is where it would be awesome for someone who has been inside a pro scouting program to weigh in, if such a person were lurking on this Board
...
I don't mean this to come across as defending Wolf or the system. The results have been bad. Change needs to happen.

And part of what sucks about our now being one of the poorly-run franchises is that gratification, if it comes, will probably be of the delayed sort.

Again, if you know more than me about how this stuff works and any of the above feels off, please chime in
Right, good questions.

I will say there have been a number of videos produced by the Patriots media shop about how this process runs, including from this past offseason about the changes that Wolf made to how they evaluate players (apparently more of a "values based" system than Belichick's "role based" system)

To your point, it sounds like college and area scouts come meet with the GM and front office staff in early February before the combine in Indianapolis in late February (and inevitable trips to St. Elmo's steakhouse, which appears in the video). At around 4:25 Wolf says he "changed the grading system" in his press conference and then someone else says it's "finding a new way for articulating what that player will be for us" but "explaining it in a different way" (whatever that means). So it sounds like the 2024 draft was Wolf's first chance to try out this new grading system.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YlTjDb_CJEE&ab_channel=NewEnglandPatriots
 

Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache

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I just thought of an analogy that I now like for the change(s) that are coming

You've heard of people doing home renovations that are "down to the studs"

Well-- and most of you probably know this already-- but the vertical studs in your walls rest on horizontal beams (in the roof they're called rafters). The two facing walls that the beams end in are the load-bearing walls, and the two walls that are parallel to the beams (and perpendicular to the load-bearing walls) are non-load bearing. These horizontal beams, in turn, rest of vertical posts that transfer the weight of the building to the ground.

Now, If you house has structural damage you gotta replace everything that rests on/transfers weight to the most load-bearing thing that needs to be replaced. So if the studs gotta be replaced, you gotta replace all the walling material and the systems in the wall that are supported by studs. If the beams gotta be replaced, well all the studs will have to go, too. If your posts have to go, well so do all your breams, at which point most everything that is recognizable as a 'house' is gone and you're more or less at a full demo.

Anyway, I think something similar works within the staffing set up of NFL teams, and especially the assistant coaching staff, the HC, and the person functioning at the GM. If the HC gotta go, you should be prepared to lose all the assistants. If the GM gotta go, be prepared to lose the HC. Whatever level is getting replaced you can't expect to salvage the people who report up to that level.

This has been brought up from time to time, but it's one of the mistakes the Bears have been making the decade or so. They keep doing this in the opposite order. So whoever is the GM didn't pick the HC and whoever the HC is didn't pick the QB.
 

AlNipper49

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Jeff Saturday is the first name that came to mind -- had never coached above HS, was grabbed out of an ESPN studio and made a head coach for the Colts with predictable results.
Mike Tomlin had some lower level coordinator jobs and one season as an assistant defensive coordinator or something.
 

Mystic Merlin

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Mike Tomlin had some lower level coordinator jobs and one season as an assistant defensive coordinator or something.
He broke into the NFL under Dungy in Tampa as a DB coach, stayed on Gruden’s staff for a while, and finally served as Minny DC for one year.

John Harbaugh had a somewhat unusual background for an NFL HC too, as special teams coordinators rarely get a HC job (hi Joe Judge!).
 

dynomite

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Mike Tomlin had some lower level coordinator jobs and one season as an assistant defensive coordinator or something.
Interesting -- Broncos blog tries to do a larger analysis of coaches by number of years experience as an OC/DC/Asst. HC, and finds basically no correlation:

As one of my followers on Twitter pointed out there is literally no correlation between NFL coordinator experience and head coaching success in the NFL.
https://www.milehighreport.com/2023/1/27/23574261/nfl-coordinator-experience-matter-hiring-a-new-head-coach

Refuse to link to twitter, but here's the photo:

93370
 

RedOctober3829

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I think hiring an offensive minded HC is required if you're moving off of Mayo. If Ben Johnson does not want to come(and I think working with Maye over Caleb Williams would be the move because I think Maye is better than Williams), then I would look hard into Joe Brady in Buffalo. He's coached Joe Burrow at LSU and currently is leading Josh Allen to an MVP season. Considering Drake Maye's skillset, Joe Brady makes a ton of sense. If not Johnson or Brady, Ravens OC Todd Monken is an interesting case. He's interviewed for HC jobs in LA, Carolina, and Atlanta in last year's cycle. The offense in Baltimore the last 2 years has been outstanding and better than it was under Greg Roman.
 

Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache

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Hadn't seen the video before, thanks


So it sounds like the 2024 draft was Wolf's first chance to try out this new grading system.
Yeah, I mean, whether it's the grading system, the way they're doing scouting/evaluations, the decision-making about how they set up their draft board... something in there ain't working.

In a world where Highsmith and Wolf are clear on that and fixing/fixed it, we should see some improvement in this next draft.

If that's not what's happening, then I move much stronger to the "things don't start to get better until you move on from Wolf" camp. Depending on the timing and who it is, the new GM decides if he wants to clean house right away or keep Mayo/AVP/Covington around for another year. But the new GM drives and decides that part of it.

Hopefully, we're not going down to the posts, but if we gotta, we gotta. And we should get the new posts set first, before we start trying to add beams.
 

bsan34

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  • If Vrabel hadn't played for the Patriots during the dynasty would you want him? Why do we want people who were here for the dynasty if we can't have the two most important people? Let's bring in some new ways of thinking.
It's a bonus that Vrabel played during the dynasty, and therefore has an idea of how the Krafts operate. It's that his resume clearly shows some hiking talent: his team ended the Pats' dynasty and made the AFC title game with Tannehill, and now he would be getting his second crack at it after a year to reflect on what went wrong during the end of his time in TEN.
 

Eddie Jurak

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But that would require Kraft to admit he made TWO mistakes. Does anyone really think he is capable of that?
Does he want to spend his final years watching the team suck.

The Reiss notes you posted are especially jarring next to this: 19-23, 202 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT (when our WR dropped the ball inot the hands of a DB).
 

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Mike Reiss is pretty savage on the team and Mayo. Screen shots because I will not link to Twitter:

93373
Isn’t “soul-searching” the stupid ass hiring process Kraft used to select Mayo in the first place?
 
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Over Guapo Grande

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It's a bonus that Vrabel played during the dynasty, and therefore has an idea of how the Krafts operate. It's that his resume clearly shows some hiking talent: his team ended the Pats' dynasty and made the AFC title game with Tannehill, and now he would be getting his second crack at it after a year to reflect on what went wrong during the end of his time in TEN.
Put him in at center as a player-coach? Can't be much worse than Brown last game.
 

Reverend

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Hire the best head coach - or the best GM, then the best head coach - you can in a national search in which no preference is given to former Patriots or guys with some preexisting relationship with Bob Kraft and in which football people are the key deciders.
I fear that the @Smiling Joe Hesketh variant of the RKK Ego Theory holds up, which means that for Kraft, not all potential wins are worth the same. Like, he would choose winning with someone else over losing with Mayo, of course, but in his ideal fantasy world, he wins with Mayo and validates the epic mythic narratives he wants people to believe about him.

Someone suggested that Kraft probably didn’t really make the decision overcome by what he saw in an airport, that’s just the story he’s pushing. Thing is, that’s the whole point: He’s trying t o push a narrative where he’s somehow special to the team success, which goes all the way back to Belichick and how much he loves the narrative of how he went with his instincts when everyone said it was madness, his desire to be sometimes friends and sometimes mentors or father figures to players, etc. Winning with Mayo pulls together this grand myth in ways that winning with someone else doesn’t.

Again, I don’t think he’d stick with Mayo if he didn’t think he could win. But winning with Mayo being worth more to him would obviously affect his judgment, as with any decision we make involving things we value. As such, I don’t think the values and incentives of Kraft and the fans are currently perfectly aligned, which is a time tested recipe for fan frustration.


I will say I found it interesting that -- before it went off the rails and I stopped watching -- the 2001 team players interviewed in "The Dynasty" (Bruschi, Milloy, etc.) credited Bledsoe's pride-swallowing reaction to not getting the starting QB job back when he was healthy that year with creation of what we consider the "Patriot Way."

As I recall they said that had a huge impact on the team -- if the (then) most famous and highest paid player on the team like Bledsoe was willing to do what was best for the team, they were going to follow his lead, and it snowballed from there.
Now that is a quality epic narrative!
 

hube

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It's a bonus that Vrabel played during the dynasty, and therefore has an idea of how the Krafts operate. It's that his resume clearly shows some hiking talent: his team ended the Pats' dynasty and made the AFC title game with Tannehill, and now he would be getting his second crack at it after a year to reflect on what went wrong during the end of his time in TEN.
How is any of the first sentence a bonus? Mayo can be described the same way.

The rest is wishcasting. Vrabel may yet prove himself to be a solid NFL head coach, but he shot his way out of Tennessee making an enemy of everyone along the way, and is little more than a recognizable name to fans. His teams got worse every year.

Vrabel is an uncreative choice from people looking to relive the glory days of this franchise. A sentimental retread. I haven’t seen any actual argument to suggest he should be the next HC of the NEP except that he played here. I’m not picking on you, I’m just at my limit

Kraft and Jr Kraft need to flush out the front office and the coaching staff entirely, find a real football person to make football decisions not based on vibes and “leader of men” qualities, and look to the future. Then get out of the way. It’s been half measures for too long, it’s time for drastic action.

The org from top to bottom needs a refresh. If they do that and decide Vrabel’s the guy, fine. But the Patriot Way officially died when Brady signed with Tampa Bay.


This team has maybe three quality starters and one of those is undoubtedly a QB on a rookie contract. Mess that up and you’re with the Browns and Jets again. And again. At the end of Maye’s first contract you’re looking at close to a decade of futility if you’ve played it wrong, going back to the Cam Newton season (to be fair to Bill that was the right move). Do the Krafts see it that way?
 

JokersWildJIMED

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Kraft loves to pat himself on the back for hiring Belichick in 2000, and while obviously a great hire, the bold move would have been to hire Belichick in 1997. Belichick was still considered toxic in 1997 and no one considered him head coach material at that time, including Kraft. By 2000, plenty of teams were ready to give him another chance.
 

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Kraft loves to pat himself on the back for hiring Belichick in 2000, and while obviously a great hire, the bold move would have been to hire Belichick in 1997. Belichick was still considered toxic in 1997 and no one considered him head coach material at that time, including Kraft. By 2000, plenty of teams were ready to give him another chance.
Kraft is basically peak Montgonery Burns telling Daryl Strawberry to hit a home run.
 

nattysez

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I think hiring an offensive minded HC is required if you're moving off of Mayo. If Ben Johnson does not want to come(and I think working with Maye over Caleb Williams would be the move because I think Maye is better than Williams), then I would look hard into Joe Brady in Buffalo. He's coached Joe Burrow at LSU and currently is leading Josh Allen to an MVP season. Considering Drake Maye's skillset, Joe Brady makes a ton of sense. If not Johnson or Brady, Ravens OC Todd Monken is an interesting case. He's interviewed for HC jobs in LA, Carolina, and Atlanta in last year's cycle. The offense in Baltimore the last 2 years has been outstanding and better than it was under Greg Roman.
Brady may head to Cincy if Zac Taylor gets fired given his relationship with Burrow.
 

twibnotes

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bsan34

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How is any of the first sentence a bonus? Mayo can be described the same way.

The rest is wishcasting. Vrabel may yet prove himself to be a solid NFL head coach, but he shot his way out of Tennessee making an enemy of everyone along the way, and is little more than a recognizable name to fans. His teams got worse every year.

Vrabel is an uncreative choice from people looking to relive the glory days of this franchise. A sentimental retread. I haven’t seen any actual argument to suggest he should be the next HC of the NEP except that he played here. I’m not picking on you, I’m just at my limit

Kraft and Jr Kraft need to flush out the front office and the coaching staff entirely, find a real football person to make football decisions not based on vibes and “leader of men” qualities, and look to the future. Then get out of the way. It’s been half measures for too long, it’s time for drastic action.

The org from top to bottom needs a refresh. If they do that and decide Vrabel’s the guy, fine. But the Patriot Way officially died when Brady signed with Tampa Bay.


This team has maybe three quality starters and one of those is undoubtedly a QB on a rookie contract. Mess that up and you’re with the Browns and Jets again. And again. At the end of Maye’s first contract you’re looking at close to a decade of futility if you’ve played it wrong, going back to the Cam Newton season (to be fair to Bill that was the right move). Do the Krafts see it that way?
Any coach hire is wishcasting, unless they’re somehow getting Shanahan to come here. There is a very obvious argument to hire Vrabel: he has more of an established track record than any other candidate who’s going to be out there. Who is going to be available that has a better resume?
 

rodderick

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Kraft loves to pat himself on the back for hiring Belichick in 2000, and while obviously a great hire, the bold move would have been to hire Belichick in 1997. Belichick was still considered toxic in 1997 and no one considered him head coach material at that time, including Kraft. By 2000, plenty of teams were ready to give him another chance.
Yeah, no one else was trading a first rounder for Bill in 2000. That was an incredibly bold move that worked wonders for the Patriots, the fact that Kraft nailed a "gut feeling" pick to that extent and got emboldened to tread the same path in 2024 is regretable, but let's not minimize the balls it took to trade a 1st for Bill in 2000, I'd argue the compensation made it much bolder than simply hiring him in 97 after serving as Parcells' assistant HC would have been.
 

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I’ve seen the Ryan Day stuff discussed here and I don’t buy it. I watch a lot of Ohio State tape. He’s a good coach. He might not be the top tier but he’s either there or close. He’s had a few stinkers but he’s helped cultivate a program which will compete for the playoffs every year. His offensive scheme changes from year to year to fit his team are what you want from a HC and offensive mind.
 

Jungleland

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With Curran reporting that Vrabel would want to come here and that other tidbit from I think Reiss the other day about Mayo being back barring organizational collapse, I can’t help but think the groundwork is being laid for a housecleaning if (when??) they lose out.
 

Curt S Loew

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With Curran reporting that Vrabel would want to come here and that other tidbit from I think Reiss the other day about Mayo being back barring organizational collapse, I can’t help but think the groundwork is being laid for a housecleaning if (when??) they lose out.
I just don't see the Vrabel thing. You're gonna can one guy from "The Patriot Way" and install another? If it's a house cleaning, it should be a house cleaning.
 

astrozombie

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I just don't see the Vrabel thing. You're gonna can one guy from "The Patriot Way" and install another? If it's a house cleaning, it should be a house cleaning.
I'm torn. On the one hand, I completely agree with you. I think they need a break with the past and a full on new regime. I am also not too excited by Vrabel, a mediocre coach whose supposed masterclass with Tannehill probably says more about how poorly the Dolphins developed Tannehill than Vrabel being a genius.
On the other hand... a mediocre coach who has done it before seems like such a massive upgrade that if the choices are that or running back Mayo, I would prefer Vrabel. FWIW I would really prefer Johnson from the Lions with some senior staff, but I don't get to make those decisions.
 

Ralphwiggum

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If they dump Mayo and just hand the job to Vrabel without doing a proper search they've learned nothing. I'm not saying Vrabel would be a bad choice, although personally I think they need to move on from the Dynasty years and take a fresh start. But we are in this mess because they handed the job to Mayo without interviewing anyone else.
 

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One majorly concern I'd have about Vrabel.. Basically everyone from the extended Belichick tree has failed most when they get personnel control. Vrabel wants a lot more personnel control, and nothing about his time in TEN makes me think he has any idea how to assess offensive personnel. You'd basically be getting the Great Value BB.
IF you make a move, hire the GM first.. This team went 4-13 last year with an excellent coach, and while I think Mayo is bad, the roster is a major concern. I'd much rather see say Spytek and Coen than Vrabel and a constant FO power struggle
 

jsinger121

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I just don't see the Vrabel thing, You're gonna can one guy from "The Patriot Way" and install another? If it's a house cleaning, it should be a house cleaning.
While Vrabel played here he’s not part of the BB coaching tree outside maybe a tiny branch off via Bill O’Brien. He has some flaws but he’s way better than Mayo with more connections across the league.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Obviously Mayo hasn’t worked out but they were really boxed in by the head coach in waiting stuff or whatever they had to promise Mayo to keep him around the last time. To reneg on that and to hire some generic white guy like Vrabel doesn’t strike me as something that would have gone over well a year ago.
 

Curt S Loew

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While Vrabel played here he’s not part of the BB coaching tree outside maybe a tiny branch off via Bill O’Brien. He has some flaws but he’s way better than Mayo.
Well, that's certainly a bar an ant couldn't crawl under at this point. Coaching tree isn't the issue. Vrabel already has a track record as a HC. I just think if they are going to clean house, clean house of all of former connections.
 

Van Everyman

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One majorly concern I'd have about Vrabel.. Basically everyone from the extended Belichick tree has failed most when they get personnel control. Vrabel wants a lot more personnel control, and nothing about his time in TEN makes me think he has any idea how to assess offensive personnel. You'd basically be getting the Great Value BB.
IF you make a move, hire the GM first.. This team went 4-13 last year with an excellent coach, and while I think Mayo is bad, the roster is a major concern. I'd much rather see say Spytek and Coen than Vrabel and a constant FO power struggle
Yeah, this is why I wonder if a POFO is what they need first. This team needs major upgrades to this roster at multiple positions. Maye is obviously an attraction for FA but if they put a real CEO-type in place who is in charge of personnel—either a super respected name or highly regarded whiz kid from a KC-type organization—I think they will have the juice across the league to build around Maye faster and bring on the right coaching personnel – either to replace or supplement Mayo. That Wolf wasn’t given this role last offseason suggests to me they might even be able to keep him in the mix serving under this person.
 

jsinger121

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Obviously Mayo hasn’t worked out but they were really boxed in by the head coach in waiting stuff or whatever they had to promise Mayo to keep him around the last time. To reneg on that and to hire some generic white guy like Vrabel doesn’t strike me as something that would have gone over well a year ago.
Now they have no excuses in my opinion to dump Mayo. A program isn’t even being built. It’s failed. He’s not ready and likely never will be ready to be a HC.
 

JokersWildJIMED

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One majorly concern I'd have about Vrabel.. Basically everyone from the extended Belichick tree has failed most when they get personnel control. Vrabel wants a lot more personnel control, and nothing about his time in TEN makes me think he has any idea how to assess offensive personnel. You'd basically be getting the Great Value BB.
IF you make a move, hire the GM first.. This team went 4-13 last year with an excellent coach, and while I think Mayo is bad, the roster is a major concern. I'd much rather see say Spytek and Coen than Vrabel and a constant FO power struggle
Don’t disagree but if Kraft moves on from Mayo I’d be hard pressed to see him moving to another first time coach. Vrabel makes the most sense (with the guarantee of a stable OC) unless a wildcard becomes available
 

Cellar-Door

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Don’t disagree but if Kraft moves on from Mayo I’d be hard pressed to see him moving to another first time coach. Vrabel makes the most sense (with the guarantee of a stable OC) unless a wildcard becomes available
Kraft shouldn't be picking the coach is more my point.... he should hire an executive who knows what they are doing and let them make the call. It's the fatal flaw of NFL owners generally, they:
1. Think they know way more about football than they do.
2. Want to pick the coach because that's the easier to observe job.
3. Forget how they ran the businesses they made their money in.... Kraft doesn't hire the assistant director of HR at International Forest Products by hand... he hires the executives and lets them do their jobs.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Kraft shouldn't be picking the coach is more my point.... he should hire an executive who knows what they are doing and let them make the call. It's the fatal flaw of NFL owners generally, they:
1. Think they know way more about football than they do.
2. Want to pick the coach because that's the easier to observe job.
3. Forget how they ran the businesses they made their money in.... Kraft doesn't hire the director of HR at International Forest Products by hand... he hires the executives and lets them do their jobs.
Which is of course how Kraft became a successful owner, he hired BB and then for 20 years he got the hell out of the way. He's forgotten that lesson because to me he is now desperate to prove that he's the reason the team was successful. Shades of Jerruh post-Jimmy.
 

rodderick

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Vrabel isn't in Bill's coaching tree and I don't know why he keeps getting lumped in with guys like Patricia. Just have a normal search and yes, include him as well, but hire the GM first.
 

Cellar-Door

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Vrabel isn't in Bill's coaching tree and I don't know why he keeps getting lumped in with guys like Patricia. Just have a normal search and yes, include him as well, but hire the GM first.
I would generally consider him part of the tree, the vast majority of his high level coaching experience came under someone who is undoubtedly in the tree (O'Brien). I think the idea that only the guys who are direct assistants are in the tree is a silly way to look at it, that is not really a tree, that's just a guy's assistants.

Not that it matters, he has his own experience we can look to (and amusingly it does look a great deal like BOB or some of the other BB assistants).

But also, hiring the coach first is a mistake, making guys like Vrabel coach/GMs is a mistake.
 

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The coaching tree thing to me is one of the worst ways to analyze coaches. A lot of these guys learned or coached under multiple people. They are their own person. Some guys might have tried to be a BB clone (Patricia, Mangini) etc., but not all guys who coached under BB did that. To me it’s like a bad/poorly used attribute that doesn’t capture much. Andy Reid probably has as many guys who coached under him that failed as BB but that isn’t discussed much. It shouldn’t be. It doesn’t actually lead to much insight other then so and so isn’t Andy Reid.
 
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