Hold the Mayo? Evaluating Patriots coaching.
- Thread starter DeJesus Built My Hotrod
- Start date
I’d have a lot easier time accepting people’s complaints about Mayo this past week were it not for the knives that have been out for him since almost day one starting with the “burn some cash” comment and I suppose Kraft’s choice to forgo a search.
It was always going to be hard because of the lack of talent on the roster and Bill’s long, long shadow. But between comparing every comment he makes to Bill (who never would’ve gotten away with his press conference demeanor in Boston without the winning) and the incessant chatter about him “coaching scared” because he doesn’t go for it on every fourth down, it seems like half the Boston area is incapable of considering how Mayo might be approaching things differently on a week to week basis.
Here’s what I think Mayo should be getting at least partial credit for:
1) Maye’s Development. Yes, AVP (and Ben McAdoo) should receive the lion’s share of the credit for his improved mechanics and overall command of the offense. But Mayo arguably handled the decision not to start Maye immediately perfectly and has since done a very good job balancing supporting Maye and holding him accountable for his mistakes without putting too much pressure on him for the team’s failures (one reason I think he's coaching a little conservatively in 4th and short situations).
2) Owning the Team’s Poor Performance. The vast majority of the "game goat" discussions here and in the media is on him, despite a roster that everyone acknowledges is near the bottom of the league from a talent perspective. Yet Mayo is not arguing Wolf didn’t do his job or blaming Bill for leaving the team in a state of disrepair, both of which would be fair criticisms. I think that's one reason that the team, while not often playing smart, is still playing hard for Mayo.
3) Ending (Most of) the Offensive Dysfunction. The last two years featured some of the ugliest offensive football I can remember in the NFL. Yes, Mac falling off a cliff was a big part of that – and the offense has looked pitiful at times this year. But most of the problem this year has been due to personnel, not scheme or organizational dysfunction. Rham has returned to being impactful. Henry is getting catches again. And Boutte and Douglas have been somewhat productive. It's not The Greatest Show On Turf but it's the kind of progress you're going to need to get things going in the right direction again.
Now, if you want to argue that these things aren't enough to turn the ship around or to overcome Mayo's in-game decision-making and tendency to "coach scared," fine. If you want to say he seems overwhelmed at times, I agree -- he probably is (tho I kind of appreciate that he's not trying to project as a Tomlin-esque tough guy with all the answers) . But my sense is that the two big goals Mayo was focused on going in to this season--developing Maye into a top tier QB and leader and rebuilding the team's culture which had been waning since Brady's departure--he is doing pretty well on.
It was always going to be hard because of the lack of talent on the roster and Bill’s long, long shadow. But between comparing every comment he makes to Bill (who never would’ve gotten away with his press conference demeanor in Boston without the winning) and the incessant chatter about him “coaching scared” because he doesn’t go for it on every fourth down, it seems like half the Boston area is incapable of considering how Mayo might be approaching things differently on a week to week basis.
Here’s what I think Mayo should be getting at least partial credit for:
1) Maye’s Development. Yes, AVP (and Ben McAdoo) should receive the lion’s share of the credit for his improved mechanics and overall command of the offense. But Mayo arguably handled the decision not to start Maye immediately perfectly and has since done a very good job balancing supporting Maye and holding him accountable for his mistakes without putting too much pressure on him for the team’s failures (one reason I think he's coaching a little conservatively in 4th and short situations).
2) Owning the Team’s Poor Performance. The vast majority of the "game goat" discussions here and in the media is on him, despite a roster that everyone acknowledges is near the bottom of the league from a talent perspective. Yet Mayo is not arguing Wolf didn’t do his job or blaming Bill for leaving the team in a state of disrepair, both of which would be fair criticisms. I think that's one reason that the team, while not often playing smart, is still playing hard for Mayo.
3) Ending (Most of) the Offensive Dysfunction. The last two years featured some of the ugliest offensive football I can remember in the NFL. Yes, Mac falling off a cliff was a big part of that – and the offense has looked pitiful at times this year. But most of the problem this year has been due to personnel, not scheme or organizational dysfunction. Rham has returned to being impactful. Henry is getting catches again. And Boutte and Douglas have been somewhat productive. It's not The Greatest Show On Turf but it's the kind of progress you're going to need to get things going in the right direction again.
Now, if you want to argue that these things aren't enough to turn the ship around or to overcome Mayo's in-game decision-making and tendency to "coach scared," fine. If you want to say he seems overwhelmed at times, I agree -- he probably is (tho I kind of appreciate that he's not trying to project as a Tomlin-esque tough guy with all the answers) . But my sense is that the two big goals Mayo was focused on going in to this season--developing Maye into a top tier QB and leader and rebuilding the team's culture which had been waning since Brady's departure--he is doing pretty well on.
Kind of odd how that story just went away, huh? But yes, if he has been cleared by the NFL, he should play and that will help. Have to imagine it will help the Duggar situation and limit his exposure.
Something occurred to me this week.
The Pats looked well-coached week one against the Bengals. Clearly, that team struggles in the first few weeks of the season based on recent history. The Pats were on the ball, though. They had a good plan and stuck to it. There were a few big plays that really swung the game that went in the Pats favor, but they looked solid overall.
They had 6 months to prepare for that game and came out ready to play. Maybe the coaching skill and ability is in there somewhere, but obviously you only get a week to prepare for everyone else on the schedule. It could be that they just really need to fine tune the week-to-week preparation and create a repeatable process.
I don't want to give them too much credit here but there have been kernels of good coaching this season. Unfortunately, they have been outweighed by poor clock management and questionable game planning.
The Pats looked well-coached week one against the Bengals. Clearly, that team struggles in the first few weeks of the season based on recent history. The Pats were on the ball, though. They had a good plan and stuck to it. There were a few big plays that really swung the game that went in the Pats favor, but they looked solid overall.
They had 6 months to prepare for that game and came out ready to play. Maybe the coaching skill and ability is in there somewhere, but obviously you only get a week to prepare for everyone else on the schedule. It could be that they just really need to fine tune the week-to-week preparation and create a repeatable process.
I don't want to give them too much credit here but there have been kernels of good coaching this season. Unfortunately, they have been outweighed by poor clock management and questionable game planning.
They are going to spend a shit ton this offseason and clearly have their franchise QB now. If they aren’t around .500 next season, I don’t think Kraft will have much patience.
I don't think he has been "cleared" just that the standard suspension was 6 games. Seems like there hasn't been any discussion about his guilt or innocence or what is happening from a legal perspective, which is odd.
Good post and I agree with a lot of it.
I agree that Mayo's early performances in front of the mic caused people to quickly jump off his bandwagon. I will admit that him using the royal "we" as he discussed decisions, particularly about Maye, made me lose confidence. He came across as someone who had not prepared well enough to be *the* leader and express that accordingly. But if people dismissed BB being a total prick unnecessarily in his pressers as not relevant to outcomes on the field, then we should probably extend that same grace to Mayo. Granted, the utter lack of a track record pushes that into belief without evidence territory.
I also get the complaints about coaching too conservatively. I do think some of those decisions, particularly once Maye became the starter, have been done to prolong the game outcome as long as possible and thus give more meaningful minutes to the team for development purposes. Yes, that may mean playing "not to lose" but there's also value in giving Maye meaningful drives at the ends of games instead of pushing all your chips in with 9 minutes to go in the 4th.
Anyway, I suspect we're 12 months away from knowing if he's good enough or not. If the team actually improves its talent level in the offseason yet we're still a ~4 win team heading into Thanksgiving 2025, it'll be time to cut bait.
I'm not sure if Mayo was expecting to be good with the media. He was expected to be more open and transparent and he's done that. Sometimes to a fault and sometimes with poor wording. I think virtually everyone agrees Mayo needs work here but I don't think it has affected the locker room or the on field product.
Defense hasn't met expectations and Mayo should take some blame for that. He's clearly learning on the job about some in game decisions and adjustments. However, the biggest goal of the season was to see some development in what they hope is their franchise QB. So far that's a major success. Enough alone to give him another season at this point.
As for Peppers, I'd be happy if he stayed home. I also, admittedly, have very little information on the incident.
Defense hasn't met expectations and Mayo should take some blame for that. He's clearly learning on the job about some in game decisions and adjustments. However, the biggest goal of the season was to see some development in what they hope is their franchise QB. So far that's a major success. Enough alone to give him another season at this point.
As for Peppers, I'd be happy if he stayed home. I also, admittedly, have very little information on the incident.
Yes, I think Kraft will have a more critical eye towards both Mayo and Wolf next year.
Why is there an expectation they will spend a shit ton?
Seems like many (most?) around here assume the Pats cannot sign external players because they’re a bad team, playing in a boring location with high income taxes. This is the excuse (or combo of excuses) most often trotted out for why last offseason’s big signings were KJ Osborn and Chuks Okorafor
Has the income tax rate dropped? Is the team back in contention? Is Boston now a bustling Mecca of nightlife excitement?
Maybe Wolf is serious about “draft and develop” and we can look forward to another few years of Polk, Wallace and Baker types filling the roster while he “makes a strong run” at veteran players but doesn’t do much expect pick through garbage and castoffs like Nick Leverett, Armon Watts, Jaylinn Hawkins and the like
How much development of Maye has anything to do with Mayo? Seems like AVP and/or McAdoo would be the guys responsible for QB development.
Peppers has been cleared in the sense that he's been removed from the commisioner's exempt list. That means he is back on the 53 and is eligible to participate in all team activites, including games. Peppers practiced today and Mayo said he would play when ready. The league's investigation remains ongoing so he is still subject to additional punsihment. Legally, Peppers trial date is set for January. He alledges the victim is looking for a $10.5 million settlement in civil court.
Peppers said today he met with ownership so I could tend to place the decision to let him return on them more than Mayo. Peersonally, I'd have kept him away until the legal process was completed.
McCartney as well. Of course, Maye himself deserves most of the credit.
I don't know how much credit to give Mayo but he is the man in charge so I'll give him some even if it just for staying out of the way. Obviously Kraft and company will have better information than us on this.
So crediting Mayo for offensive improvements and Maye’s development which seemingly would have almost nothing to do with his actual coaching is a point in his favor?
And owning the poor performance? By calling players soft and being “unable to control the players once they cross the white line”
Really reaching to find things to like about his coaching performance
He’s a defensive guy. The defense looks sloppy and poorly coached. The decisions and gameplans are inconsistent to be kind. How is that not more heavily weighted than offensive output (which IMO is a credit to AVP especially considering Mayo called AVP “head coach of the offense”)
I don’t think Mayo has anything to do with the offense other than big picture stuff (let’s go for it here, punt there, call a timeout here, kick a FG there etc). He’s already said AVP runs the show on that side of the ball so the offense being merely bad instead of horrendous while the defense and special teams suck isn’t really reason to think he’s anything resembling a decent head coach.
Sure we can credit him with bringing in AVP, but also offset by Covington and Springer who seem totally inept
I mean no argument that some people were unfair from him from the jump or excessively critical or waiting for him to fail. But when you have a fan base with millions of fans that's going to happen with any new coach. But that's a completely separate question from whether or not he's literally the best person from the job for the job after this season.
Is it totally fair that somebody only gets one season with the terrible roster? Maybe not but fairness has nothing to do with it. I think the more pressing questions are: is he literally the best possible person for the job out of all the people that could be available next year? Will any good coordinators want to work for someone if they think they're more qualified to be a head coach than he is? And can you really blame Personnel on stuff like pre-step penalties which is about discipline which is learned and can be coached?
I don't necessarily think it's fair that Mayo would only get one season but I have to admit like hard to think of any good thing he's done even accounting for the difficult circumstances and trying to isolate the variables for which you can judge him.
I really have a hard time thinking anybody thinks he's the best person to be the coach if this roster starts to improve in the coming years.
The other primary argument is that it's dysfunctional to keep changing your coaches but that doesn't mean you can never justify firing one. Because if you end up just firing him a year later it's an even more dysfunctional situation.
You don't want to stick with the wrong guy just for the sake of continuity especially when it's hard to think of anything good. Like his decision making on high stakes plays like fourth down or whether or not to accept penalties has been I think below average to put it charitably.
The pre-snap penalties, locker room culture, untrained media relations.
He's known for years that he was going to end up with his gig and it's just kind of jarring to me how ill prepared he seems and that's even accounting for the fact that we're grading on a very large curve here.
I just have a hard time thinking even the people that like mayo and think he should be given a second season out of fairness actually thinks he's the best person for the job.
Is it totally fair that somebody only gets one season with the terrible roster? Maybe not but fairness has nothing to do with it. I think the more pressing questions are: is he literally the best possible person for the job out of all the people that could be available next year? Will any good coordinators want to work for someone if they think they're more qualified to be a head coach than he is? And can you really blame Personnel on stuff like pre-step penalties which is about discipline which is learned and can be coached?
I don't necessarily think it's fair that Mayo would only get one season but I have to admit like hard to think of any good thing he's done even accounting for the difficult circumstances and trying to isolate the variables for which you can judge him.
I really have a hard time thinking anybody thinks he's the best person to be the coach if this roster starts to improve in the coming years.
The other primary argument is that it's dysfunctional to keep changing your coaches but that doesn't mean you can never justify firing one. Because if you end up just firing him a year later it's an even more dysfunctional situation.
You don't want to stick with the wrong guy just for the sake of continuity especially when it's hard to think of anything good. Like his decision making on high stakes plays like fourth down or whether or not to accept penalties has been I think below average to put it charitably.
The pre-snap penalties, locker room culture, untrained media relations.
He's known for years that he was going to end up with his gig and it's just kind of jarring to me how ill prepared he seems and that's even accounting for the fact that we're grading on a very large curve here.
I just have a hard time thinking even the people that like mayo and think he should be given a second season out of fairness actually thinks he's the best person for the job.
None.
Mayo is only responsible for the things that go wrong. The "good" offensive players are because of AVP.
The "bad" ones are because Mayo has no idea what he's doing.
I too would be happy if Peppers is released. But that would help the D to keep sucking.
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I certainly hope that Mayo discussed with the Krafts their intentions on whether he can play or not. If he practiced, I guess they must have given the okay.
So you have 1,200 posts over the last year and I suspect >1,000 of them have come over the last two weeks ranting about Mayo, Kraft and the Pats. Can you take a breath for a moment?
Of course I’m reaching. The defense has been banged up but has mostly played pretty poorly this season. The in game decision making is inconsistent. The record is bad and they’ve had multiple games where they haven’t looked competitive for long stretches. This is not a good football team.
But Mayo is like Bill in one very key way: he is taking all the heat. He’s not doing it the same way as Bill – instead of clamming up and saying “just have to coach better” when it was clear the players had fucked up, Mayo is talking a ton, admitting his own mistakes and describing how he has to learn more. But he is absorbing it all which I think is important when your team sucks and guys are making tons of errors.
Also: the “soft” thing absolutely worked BTW. The team responded, and played much better for the next month. Right up until they didn’t.
Mayo may ultimately not prove to be much of a tactician. But I do think we’re seeing some evidence of his connection with the players and why the Krafts thought putting a rebuilding team and a QB’s development in his hands was a good idea.
Yes he has on many times made statements that have tried to deflect the blame on himself. The examples you mentioned are good I probably don't need to mention any others but I certainly could.
Even if he does occasionally take blame which he does it's terrible media training to leave quotes out there like " I can't control what happens once the players are in between the white lines."
Some fans are accusing that of being like an out of context quote but a head coach has to recognize that if you say that it's going to be all over the media.
I was not early on the train of trying wanting to fire the coach I wasn't particularly bullish on him but I'm not against the idea of having like a player's coach and a rah-rah type of guy. I kind of like Pete Carroll.
But I just think even if it's kind of unfair because of the terrible roster there are two key variables here.
1) I don't think we're going to be able to attract any good coordinators if he's the head coach because people don't think he's qualified and they're going to feel their answering to somebody that they should be working above. That might be in part why some people didn't take job offers for the Patriots this year and we had to settle for an offensive coordinator way down on our list.
2) even if it's not fair so to speak that he only gets one year with this terrible roster, that's a separate question from whether he's the best person for the job. Even if you think he was dealt a really really raw deal in terms of roster does that mean he's actually the best person for the job?
The other argument seems to be about trying to keep continuity but I would argue that if you don't think he's going to make it you just better off cutting it off now so you can try to develop a rapport with the next guy.
I might even consider just nuking the entire leadership if I craft and firing Elliott wolf bringing in a GM and then having him start a search for a head coach with an institutional program in mind and not this hodgepodge strategy.
I think the ownership expected Belichick to probably get the record here before he left so they were kind of left in a rush to put together a staff and they built it from the head coach first and the GM second it's just a mess.
Call it a mulligan you're going to have to change 90% of the roster anyways and just start over
I'm not the person involved and I don't think I've posted here all season so I certainly can't be accused of using this forum as a place to vent endlessly.
But just from a logical perspective the frequency with which one post doesn't actually mean their argument is right or wrong that should just be judged on its Merit. If he's not breaking any rules it's really not your business how frequently someone posts here just like it's not our business how frequently you do. Unless you're a moderator in which case I apologize because then it would be your business.
It is true that some people that want Mayo fired might be obsessive or cantankerous or worse is an entirely separate question from whether or not he's the best person to coach the team in the long term. I have not read the post history of the person you're discussing this with so I'm not accusing him of those things and I honestly don't care one way or the other.
But at this point in the season I think we're now at the point where a lot of measured people that had an open mind about mayo or now quite sure he's not the right guy.
" there were a lot of complaints"... you have no idea if the people complaining about May or not benching him were the same people complaining about Belichick being too quick to bench people.
I see this fallacy a lot. Especially regarding Mayo's interactions with the media when people criticize him. " put fans wanted bell-check to be more transparent you can't have it both ways " there's millions of fans and millions of them liked Belichick style and millions of them didn't so we can't just assume the people you're disagree with now are contradicting themselves.
There are millions of patriot fans so there are going to be literally countless examples of every single possible opinion you could imagine. Even if it's a consensus opinion from the fan base that doesn't mean that the people making an argument today were the ones that were part of the chorus.
Would it be fair to say your argument is undermined by the fact that other fans that weren't you had a contradictory opinion years ago?
I don't even have an opinion on the fumbling issue I just wish that people would argue stuff on the merits. Frequency of someone's posting, the fact that their opinion might contradict a consensus opinion from the fanbase of years ago is completely irrelevant to the merits of their argument. Those fallacies could easily be used against you and you would probably be frustrated by it
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It's pretty normal to be critical of the coach when things go wrong and praise the players when they go right. We learned that from listening to bill. Comes with the territory. Mayo has made good decisions about maye, somewhat patching the offensive turnstile, etc. Lots of unagressive coaching for a team that needs aggressiveness. I won't be upset of he coaches 2025
Eh, he's taking the heat because he replaced Bill and is a very unproven HC who was chosen in a manner that most deemed to be unfit of a well run organization, so he came into the job under enhanced scrutiny and with more resistance than others would, it's only natural he'd be the focal point of the criticism. Just this week he offered up "there's nothing I can do for them after they cross the white lines" and "if I had better players to put in it'd be easier to punish guys for mistakes", so is he absorbing it all?
How much of Brady's development had anything to do with Bill? Seems like Weiss and Rehbein would be the guys responsible for QB development. I mean, Bill only won 1 playoff game without Brady as his QB after all.
Yes, this shit gets tiring.
This is a good question, and provoked a good afternoon of debate
FWIW, I'm not sure Mayo was hired to be more open and transparent with the media
Others can correct this if my memory is leading me astray, but my impression was that Kraft picked Mayo because he wanted
- More collaboration and collegiality behind the scenes between the coaching staff, the front office, and ownership. Kraft was tired of the "I'm a controlling and highly successful asshole" style of leadership. As has been said, he wanted his team back; and
- To establish that the "Patriot way" of running a football team could be proven viable and successful without any one individual, Belichick in particular
FWIW, and it's not much, I think the scenario where Mayo is replaced sooner rather than later is the scenario where this season convinces Kraft that Mayo isn't the person to make point #2 a reality. And that turning to someone without much connection to the franchise-- but who is sympatico with the stuff Kraft cares about-- is the way to go.
Anyway
Back to @DeJesus Built My Hotrod question --> here's what I'm looking for from Mayo:
- Whether or not he ever admits his limitations and failings, his actions-- especially in the offseason-- reflect that he sees them and is serious about taking corrective action
- More specifically: he brings in a very experienced "Assistant Head Coach" from the ranks of guys who are great coordinators but not (/no longer) HC candidates. I don't feel particularly strongly whether this person takes over the defense or the offense, but the first obviously needs more attention
- If the prior person isn't also the de facto DC, Mayo needs to upgrade Covington to someone who can scheme and make in-game adjustments better. If that stuff continues to not be Mayo's strength it needs to be the DC's
- Mayo's actions make clear that he understands his success is going to be based on the talent of his coaching staff, and makes identifying, cultivating, and recruiting really strong junior coaches his #1 priority. If he seems to keep people around because he has a personal connection to them or because they're former Patriots, that's going to be a bad sign
my mind would change if his in game decision making started making more sense. more going for it. fewer wasted time outs. better kick/go for it calculus according to game situation.
I mean, BB kept TB as a 4th QB on the active roster. Then the next year elevated him to #2 over a career backup. So I think there is something to be said for BB aiding TB's development.
didn’t brady say in that documentary series last year that him and belichick went over film privately together every week early in his career too?
I knew it was sarcasm, I was just trying to remember if that was actually true about them having weekly meetings.
They will have 140-150 million in cap space (by far the most in the league), and there is a 5 year cap floor that requires a 90% baseline, so your snark aside they will have to.
I know this is sarcasm, but I think when Rehbein passed, Bill took on a much larger role with the QBs. The team did not hire a QB coach till 2003.
You are brave. Hard if you don’t get religion around here - boo hoo, I know : ). Six weeks ago everyone here wanted to fire AVP into the sun and now apparently he’s doing a good job. Whatever, they get room to grow.
The only person who should be on thin ice is Wolf. He’s been here for years and have they kept on getting sucky players since Bill left.
An example of his bad decisioning is Okorafor, who walked away because he knew he wasn’t a left tackle and had too much dignity and money to embarrass himself. If they hadn’t pushed him out of position (like their RG) I believe he’d still be here playing RT. Eliot better have some good air cover for the shape of this roster….Wolf is on thinnest of ice.
They had the 2nd most in cap space last offseason, over 100M
Remind me again how that went in terms of external additions to the roster?
The idea that they’re going to spend big to improve the team is fanciful at best. They’ll give Jon Jones some money, re-sign some other guys on the edge of the roster and then sign a bunch of $4M AAV guys like Hooper, Osborn, Takitaki and Leverett
You can hit that cap floor fairly easily without signing a big external contract.
So you think Jerod Mayo, linebackers coach turned rookie HC is equally as involved with QB development as Belichick was?
Interesting take given back in 2001 there were reports of BB working with the QB’s, and again after Weis left before McDaniels took over full control. You know, the years when BB called plays offensively - as he did in Cleveland in 1993 when he worked with Testaverde extensively (in the hopes he’d replace Kosar).
Also, I think comparing 11 games of Maye working “with” Mayo and many years of BB and Brady working together - which Brady acknowledges and there have been plenty of video clips, interviews, behind the scenes documenting of them watching offensive film and brainstorming together - is patently absurd.
I can’t imagine what offensive wisdom Jerod Mayo has to impart upon his rookie QB as it is. What, exactly, does Mayo know about QB development?
By the time BB had gotten to the Pats he had been a head coach, and worked hand in hand with offensive talent and called plays on offense. He had been in the NFL breaking down film for 20+ years. Hell, he worked as a WR coach in the beginning of his career. It’s ridiculous to think Mayo would be on equal footing in terms of contributions to offensive player development.
My feelings regarding Mayo are irrelevant to my feeling that attributing him credit for Maye’s development is absurd
But, if we’re crediting him with Maye’s development, we can credit him with the “development” of Polk and Baker. Also Sow, Robinson, Wallace and others.
I think a lot of Brady's development had to do with Bill, who was/is a brilliant defensive mind, I'm sure he showed/taught him a thing or two about defenses, how to read them, what keys to look for, what tendances certain players and defensive coaches had, etc, etc.
Imagine doing film study on the defense of an upcoming opponent and having Bill there breaking down the defense with you.
Edit; oh wait, this has been covered and in fact they never did film study.
Nevermind.
I really dont see how your proposed spending gets them anywhere near the floor unless they give a bunch of guys on the roster a whole lot more money than they are worth. Unlike last year where Onwenu, Henry, and Dugger were free agents (not to mention lower cost guys like Bourne, Jennings, and Uche) and Barmore/ Rham were eligible for an extension, there arent any big money guys in either situation this coming offseason.
The three year guys who are left on the roster are well Cole Strange and Marcus Jones. The biggest FAs are Jonathan Jones and Deatrich Wise; guys who are close to the end of the line and were never big money guys in the first place. Oh and KJ Osborn, I guess.
They basically need to spend significant money outside the organization.
There is no floor. There’s a 4 year requirement to spend 90%. If my math is correct, in order to hit that 4 spend number, they need a cap hit of about 205M. They currently have 169,300,000 (rounded) in cap allocations
The idea that they have to go on a wild spending spree to hit some salary floor is flat out wrong. Rookies, roster fodder (Osborn, Takitaki, Hooper types), re-signing Wise, Hooper (maybe), Jon Jones, Slye and some small pieces is plenty to get them to 205M. Maybe they add one mid tier free agent player.
People are kidding themselves if they think Wolf is lining up a spending spree to seriously improve the roster. And based on the consensus around here, he wouldn’t be able to anyway because of taxes, the team sucks etc.
He had a chance last offseason to rebuild and he opted to dumpster dive and reach for a bunch of guys in the draft who have thus far flopped. What reason is there to think that he’s actually going to “burn cash” and “weaponize” as Mayo would say?
$40M of cap allocations sounds right to hit floor (you can call it whatever you want, its a 4 year period minimum). YMMV, but what you've described would to me be substantially overpaying roster fodder as rookie hits are sub $10M.
Edit: Basically what you are suggesting is that Robert Kraft, who is desperate to make a final push for the HOF will continue to roll massive cap space in perpetuity and then... overpay a bunch of the end of the roster guys to hit the minimum. That seems... well an outrageous take on its face.
No, what I’m suggesting is that Eliot Wolf isn’t capable or willing to massively overpay which is what you generally need to do to land high end free agents.
My original point was that Wolf had the same situation last year - bad roster, tons of holes, and spent about 20-25M on external garbage. I don’t think they “have” to deviate from that plan. People expecting a spending spree where they land Higgins, a tackle and maybe another big piece are likely to be horribly disappointed
They can easily spend 40M on a couple re-signings, rookies and this year’s version of Osborn, Hooper, Takitaki and the like. They don’t have to roll money forward forever, because I’m sure Wolf is confident he can draft well enough to have guys to re-sign (plus guys like Gonzalez and White who will need extensions)
The “Green Bay way” is to draft and use cap space retaining some of those guys. Not dumping a bunch of money on high end veterans. Of course, it’s also possible Wolf just does his thing, gets fired and the next guy goes on a wild spending spree
As for Kraft, he’s done everything possible to piss all over his own legacy the last 10 months or so. I’m sure in his mind, Wolf is the right guy and he’ll just go along with whatever Wolf suggests is right. I don’t think
Kraft has any clue what’s needed to get the team back to a Super Bowl.
How often do you speak with the Krafts? You seem to really have insight into their thinking - what is your source?
We can see how next offseason goes and if it’s as horrible as the past one, I’ll be right here with you. I do expect a spending spree now; they’ve failed to develop WR and Tackle and have the other positions in place.The spree need not be like 2021, but rather at tackle or WR where they have critical needs.
Just like some of the Mayo criticism is early or unfair, so is the Kraft/Wolf criticism that they won’t spend in the future. They had a horrible off season last year. But they spent in 2021 and last season the free agents they went after didn’t come. They deserve major criticism for the results (which were easily foreseeable) but I think you’re a bit early on criticizing the overall process. Even with a perfect offseason (say signing Ridley at their $$) they were going to be very bad this year.
To be completely transparent, I expect a major Tackle or WR to be signed this offseason with Maye here and their overall roster. I expect the contract to be awful value and I expect to fine with that because that’s the price you pay when you are bad and have drafted poorly and need to make someone come to your team. Last offseason they could afford to negotiate with Ridley; they can’t do that this offseason and need to address major holes at two positions.
The Pats didn’t have Drake Maye as their starting QB last offseason. That dynamic alone makes this coming offseason far different.
I don’t understand how you’re so sure of everything in the future. It’s weird.
Last year, the team did not have a quarterback. This year they seem to have one that is good going forward.
Other than that, yeah, it's EXACTLY, PRECISELY, and IDENTICALLY the same.
What does having a quarterback have to do with anything? They knew they had the #3 pick, they almost certainly knew they’d have a young franchise QB
They chose to surround that #3 overall pick QB with Okorafor, Osborn, Polk and a bunch of crap
You use of capital letters doesn’t change the fact that both seasons they had huge holes in the roster. Both seasons they had a need to revamp their offense and retool or bolster the D. Both seasons they had massive piles of money to spend
First time around we got Armon Watts, Nick Leverett and KJ Osborn. This time around I’m sure we will get Tee Higgins, Garrett Bolles, Trey Smith and Dre Greenlaw because “they have a QB”
Remind me again what QB Washington and the Raiders had last offseason when they were able to sign players. It’s almost as if, and this is crazy I know, you can address the 52 other non-starting QB spots on your roster any time you want. It isn’t actually a prerequisite to adding talent.
But sure, wasting the first year of development in Maye’s career, because they couldn’t (?) spend money on actual talent makes sense and is worth justifying.