Help me understand the Pats cap situation

[tims4wins]

Knowing that
1) the Pats were in cap jail in 2020
2) they paid the penalties and absorbed the cap hits
3) they pay nothing to the QB position

How do they still have no cap room? Looking at the cap hits from the 2021 signings - Judon, Jonnu, Henry, Algholor - it looks like they completely mismanaged the 2022 cap hits from those signings.

The biggest advantage in the NFL is supposed to be having a good QB on a rookie deal. The Pats will have “wasted” the first two years of that deal.

What gives??

 

[Cellar-Door]

Knowing that
1) the Pats were in cap jail in 2020
2) they paid the penalties and absorbed the cap hits
3) they pay nothing to the QB position

How do they still have no cap room? Looking at the cap hits from the 2021 signings - Judon, Jonnu, Henry, Algholor - it looks like they completely mismanaged the 2022 cap hits from those signings.

The biggest advantage in the NFL is supposed to be having a good QB on a rookie deal. The Pats will have “wasted” the first two years of that deal.

What gives??

They backloaded the deals they signed last year to enable them to sign a ton of guys, that meant this year when the cap went up this year it was filled with bigger hits from the guys signed last year (so a 2 year Agholor deal had most of the money in year 2, same with Judon, Henry, Jonnu etc. in terms of a big year 2 compared to year 1), plus they had some hits they had to re-arrange like McCourty's deal.

And they don't have no cap room, just a fairly small amount and no real desire to restructure and push money down the road to open up more as of yet.

Right now they are on schedule to have over $100M in cap space next year.

 

[radsoxfan]

Makes sense, but knowing they have 100M next season I do find it somewhat surprising they have done so little.

They have the option to sign some guys now that primarily eat into the 100M rather than this year's cap... yet seem uninterested.

I guess they haven't liked the guys available enough to make a move but they are opening up lots and lots of holes.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Makes sense, but knowing they have 100M next season I do find it somewhat surprising they have done so little.

They have the option to sign some guys now that primarily eat into the 100M rather than this year's cap... yet seem uninterested.

I guess they haven't liked the guys available enough to make a move but they are opening up lots and lots of holes.

I would guess they have a short list of guys, and haven't gotten one yet.
They were in on Robinson, but (correctly to me) didn't see him as worth the deal LAR offerred.
They allegedly were trying to work out a long term deal with JCJ based on a good sized AAV but structured with less this year, but he also got a big offer and took it.

I would guess Bill is not going to borrow from next year to overpay this year unless it's for someone he sees as a long-term value.

Also... it's still early, and it looks like they are waiting for Trent Brown to test his market, then they'll make a yes/no on matching him.

I would note too, guys have to be willing to structure that way, not all are, and some only want it if you pay more.

 

[bsj]

It seems to me that Bill is willing to stay flat, or even take a small step back this year, in deference to his long term plan. It's going to make for a rough season for fans. I hope it pays off in the end.

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

Bring me Wagner, Bulaga, Humphries, Bouye, Ricard...and then let's bang.

 

[Super Nomario]

I would guess they have a short list of guys, and haven't gotten one yet.
They were in on Robinson, but (correctly to me) didn't see him as worth the deal LAR offerred.
They allegedly were trying to work out a long term deal with JCJ based on a good sized AAV but structured with less this year, but he also got a big offer and took it.

I would guess Bill is not going to borrow from next year to overpay this year unless it's for someone he sees as a long-term value.

Also... it's still early, and it looks like they are waiting for Trent Brown to test his market, then they'll make a yes/no on matching him.

I would note too, guys have to be willing to structure that way, not all are, and some only want it if you pay more.

Jackson's Y1 cap hit is only 8 MM (3 MM salary), so that should not have been a sticking point. Maybe they didn't like the overall guaranteed figure.

My fear is with so much cap space next year, they do a bunch of dumb shit like they did last offseason. I think it would be healthier to make some adds now, still with 2023-on in mind.

 

[rodderick]

Jackson's Y1 cap hit is only 8 MM (3 MM salary), so that should not have been a sticking point. Maybe they didn't like the overall guaranteed figure.

My fear is with so much cap space next year, they do a bunch of dumb shit like they did last offseason. I think it would be healthier to make some adds now, still with 2023-on in mind.

As of now, 22 teams are set to have 57+ million in cap space next offseason. If Bill wants to spend, he better be ready to overpay because the market will likely be insane (which is the exact opposite of 2021 when the Pats were basically the only team with money to throw around).

 

[BigJimEd]

3 days. 3 days into the new league year. Yes, several big ticket players are off the market but there is still a ton of time. Way too early to complain the Patriots haven't signed anyone.

Also not necessarily a determining factor but don't forget comp picks.
Similar to baseball, the formula favors consolidating your high money signings in a single offseason.

 

[bsj]

3 days. 3 days into the new league year. Yes, several big ticket players are off the market but there is still a ton of time. Way too early to complain the Patriots haven't signed anyone.

Also not necessarily a determining factor but don't forget comp picks.
Similar to baseball, the formula favors consolidating your high money signings in a single offseason.

So many parallels between the Patriots and the Red Sox here.

Yes, both have time so sign more players. But that doesn't mean its not a concern over the fact the Pats have slipped backwards while most of its AFC rivals have gotten better.

 

[Rico Guapo]

Jackson's Y1 cap hit is only 8 MM (3 MM salary), so that should not have been a sticking point. Maybe they didn't like the overall guaranteed figure.

My fear is with so much cap space next year, they do a bunch of dumb shit like they did last offseason. I think it would be healthier to make some adds now, still with 2023-on in mind.

The contracts they gave out last offseason look very reasonable right now, except for Jonnu Smith, and I'm still optimistic BB figures out a way to better utilize his strengths in 2022.

 

[Cellar-Door]

Jackson's Y1 cap hit is only 8 MM (3 MM salary), so that should not have been a sticking point. Maybe they didn't like the overall guaranteed figure.

My fear is with so much cap space next year, they do a bunch of dumb shit like they did last offseason. I think it would be healthier to make some adds now, still with 2023-on in mind.

I meant more that's why they didn't tag him.
No clue if they weren't willing to match or if he just preferred going to the clearer super bowl contender.

 

[Mystic Merlin]

I meant more that's why they didn't tag him.
No clue if they weren't willing to match or if he just preferred going to the clearer super bowl contender.

Lazar reported that the Pats offered him 3/51, and the Chargers came over the top in terms of guarantees and total value.

 

[BigJimEd]

So many parallels between the Patriots and the Red Sox here.

Yes, both have time so sign more players. But that doesn't mean its not a concern over the fact the Pats have slipped backwards while most of its AFC rivals have gotten better.

And look what the Red Sox just did. However, the big difference is the Sox season starts in a couple weeks. The NFL offseason started less than a week ago. It's too early to be overly concerned. Losing Jackson sucks but that didn't equate to wasting the year.
We have some version of this thread every other year. It's probably happening in most NFL cities, people overreact to the first couple days of FA.

 

[tims4wins]

And look what the Red Sox just did. However, the big difference is the Sox season starts in a couple weeks. The NFL offseason started less than a week ago. It's too early to be overly concerned. Losing Jackson sucks but that didn't equate to wasting the year.
We have some version of this thread every other year. It's probably happening in most NFL cities, people overreact to the first couple days of FA.

To be clear, I didn’t start the thread because I have a problem with their approach in free agency this year. It was more to understand how they are up against it despite taking their medicine in 2020 and spending no money on the QB position.

 

[Dduncan6er]

To be clear, I didn’t start the thread because I have a problem with their approach in free agency this year. It was more to understand how they are up against it despite taking their medicine in 2020 and spending no money on the QB position.

I think a lot of it is that they don’t have many free agents coming up in 2023 that are worth extending to lower their 2022 cap numbers. Outside of Harris and maybe Wynn, there’s not much worth bringing back there. So the move is just to eat the 2022 cap number rather than kicking the can down the road with these guys.

 

[DJnVa]

To be clear, I didn’t start the thread because I have a problem with their approach in free agency this year. It was more to understand how they are up against it despite taking their medicine in 2020 and spending no money on the QB position.

When a team spends more in FA than any team in history, as they did last season, you have to expect that this year wouldn't be anywhere close to it.

I would assume they budgeted so they could spend a lot last year and next year.

 

[Cotillion]

I think a lot of it is that they don’t have many free agents coming up in 2023 that are worth extending to lower their 2022 cap numbers. Outside of Harris and maybe Wynn, there’s not much worth bringing back there. So the move is just to eat the 2022 cap number rather than kicking the can down the road with these guys.

I think it's this more than anything. They don't have a lot of guys that they think will be around long enough to justify pushing off the cap hits into the future and hurting future moves that they don't know might be available, and they haven't had any "have to have this guy" needs to justify doing it.

 

[McBride11]

When a team spends more in FA than any team in history, as they did last season, you have to expect that this year wouldn't be anywhere close to it.

I would assume they budgeted so they could spend a lot last year and next year.

I mean what has BB ever done? He never seems to have a plan!

A lot of people seem enamored with the huge deals given out in LAR, OAK, GB, etc etc. They may have a few shining years but BB seems to plan long term. The LAR splurge now will at some point lead to the NO in cap hell scenario. I'd rather be in contention yearly than a 3-5 year splurge followed by shit rebuilding years.

I mean BB gave up TB12 to not mortgage the future. Ya, I would like him to do more, obviously, but I doubt he doesn't have a plan.

 

[Shelterdog]

I think it's also pretty clear that the Pats _could_ clear a decent chunk of cap room in a hurry by converting salary to bonuses, they just haven't opted too.

 

[tims4wins]

I think a lot of it is that they don’t have many free agents coming up in 2023 that are worth extending to lower their 2022 cap numbers. Outside of Harris and maybe Wynn, there’s not much worth bringing back there. So the move is just to eat the 2022 cap number rather than kicking the can down the road with these guys.

This is a very good point. Thank you.

 

[JM3]

Idk TEs making QB $, bunch of players who aren't great making $. There's obviously room to tweak things if they want, but probably best to not pending someone awesome long-term coming available.

 

[McBride11]

What top QB, not on rookie contracts are making only 15m?

 

[JM3]

What top QB, not on rookie contracts are making only 15m?

They're paying $28.7m to the 2 of them.

Which is a higher cap hit than all but 5 QBs in the league this year.

In terms of your actual question - only Stafford, whose cap hit this season is $13.5m & Watson at $10m.

 

[Cellar-Door]

They're paying $28.7m to the 2 of them.

Which is a higher cap hit than all but 5 QBs in the league this year.

In terms of your actual question - only Stafford, whose cap hit this season is $13.5m & Watson at $10m.

I mean even that is disingenuous because it's the high cap year traded for low cap numbers last year, while Watson and Stafford are in the low cap hit years of their deal.

Edit- anyway to be more clear, beyond just not evaluating AAV, which is what gives you a better evaluation of what guys get paid than cherrypicking single year cap hits, combining the two highest cap hit skill players on a team is usually going to end up with QB money, that seems obvious.

The reason the Patriots are unlikely to spend big this year is because they never intended to, the specifically chose last year to sign a ton of guys and put the big cap hits in this season. They'll likely try to re-sign Brown, add a few mid-level players, and go into the season. Then next year, they'll both have cap to burn, and have a good idea which if any of last year's signings they want to extend/re-structure.

 

[JM3]

Let's compare to the Bills for a minute using this year's cap hits...

QB Josh Allen $16.4
TE Dawson Knox $2.7m
TE OJ Howard $2.9m
Total - $23m

QB Mac Jones $3.5m
TE Hunter Henry $15m
TE Jonnu Smith $13.7m
Total - $32.2m

& you can kind of quickly see why they don't have much cap room despite having a rookie QB.

 

[JM3]

I mean even that is disingenuous because it's the high cap year traded for low cap numbers last year, while Watson and Stafford are in the low cap hit years of their deal.

How is it disingenuous? The question is "why don't the Patriots have cap room this year". & that's the answer.

It's not a value judgment.

 

[tims4wins]

Deatrich Wise having a higher cap hit than Von Miller doesn’t help.

Look at all the contracts over $1M for total scrubs on the Pats. They have like 40+ guys over $1M

 

[Cellar-Door]

How is it disingenuous? The question is "why don't the Patriots have cap room this year". & that's the answer.

It's not a value judgment.

Because you're picking TEs as if it matters which position it is.
To use the Bills analogy:

Diggs: $17,917,876 should be the comparison not Knox.

 

[JM3]

Because you're picking TEs as if it matters which position it is.
To use the Bills analogy:

Diggs: $17,917,876 should be the comparison not Knox.

I thought about adding Diggs/McKenzie & Agholor/Bourne in, too. Paints the same picture only worse.

I really don't get what you're attacking. Of course actual team building is much more nuanced & we both agree they could restructure things but probably shouldn't.

But that is a ton of $ to have tied up in the TE position in terms of cap hit this season, so it stood out.

 

[JM3]

Here are the Patriots current rankings in the league on spending by position (using cap hits for this year which is what this thread is about)...

QB - 28th
RB - 24th
WR - 5th
TE - 1st
OL - 26th
DL - 17th
LB - 10th
DB - 10th
K/P/LS - 7th

Only 8 teams spend more on QBs than the Patriots spend on TEs when the median team is paying $8.8m for TE & $17.8m for QB.

It's a lot & it's a huge part of the answer to "Where is their 2022 cap room?" & by itself it negates the cap advantage of a rookie deal QB.

Put one last way... the Patriots are currently 10th in the NFL in '22 cap hits for QB + TE.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

It’s a lot of money to be spending on positions that aren’t even terribly productive for them. Despite all the spend on WR, we seem to be in need of at least a WR1, and probably a WR2. And heck, the best WR from last year isn’t even signed.

 

[jsinger121]

Deatrich Wise having a higher cap hit than Von Miller doesn’t help.

Look at all the contracts over $1M for total scrubs on the Pats. They have like 40+ guys over $1M

This is the big problem. Way too many overpaid special teams players and bottom of the roster players. It’s a big reason why they Have a cap crunch.

 

[Shelterdog]

This is the big problem. Way too many overpaid special teams players and bottom of the roster players. It’s a big reason why they Have a cap crunch.

Its really not. 70 for Jonu Judon Godchaux Henry Aguolor is the issue to in large part deal with low numbers for them last year is the problem.

 

[Mugsy’s Walk-Off Bunt]

The patriots spend more on their middle class than many teams. It hurts more when some of the middle class sucks or, at least, is overpaid.

Also - RKK doled out a shit ton of cash last off season. Cash outlay is, IMO, absolutely a factor, as much as managing a salary cap.

 

[mcpickl]

This is the big problem. Way too many overpaid special teams players and bottom of the roster players. It’s a big reason why they Have a cap crunch.

It's not at all. This is nonsense Felger logic.

Even if you replaced all of those supposed "overpaid special teams players and bottom of the roster players" with guys making the minimum, you might be able to afford one extra Ted Karras level player.

Friends, don't let your friends listen to Felger.

 

[GB5]

I agree on the cash layout position. Kraft paid up like crazy last season and my guess is that he wasn’t doing it two years in a row. Will be interesting to watch next year with 100 mill in cap space if Kraft lays out the $$ again.

The lack of spending this off-season doesn’t bother me as much as in a QB driven league, the amount of talent that is still young that has arrived in the AFC. This isn’t dealing with 1-2 more years of Brady. The Pats are going to be dealing with this for a while.

 

[slamminsammya]

I don't buy Kraft being unwilling to spend. The point of the salary cap is that, on average, owner spend is extremely predictable and capped. Why would Kraft care that he paid a lot in 2021? Does anyone think he can't find the cash to pay signing bonuses? It seems crazy to me.

 

[BigSoxFan]

I don't buy Kraft being unwilling to spend. The point of the salary cap is that, on average, owner spend is extremely predictable and capped. Why would Kraft care that he paid a lot in 2021? Does anyone think he can't find the cash to pay signing bonuses? It seems crazy to me.

Yeah, he’s an extremely competitive 80 year-old who’s worth $8B+. I don’t see cash outlay as a problem at all for him. I’m sure he’d be happy to do it if the football ops team brings good reasons to him in order to do so. This is all speculation but I’m sure he’s almost always most concerned about the impact on the field and the potential fit.

 

[Devizier]

I wonder if part of the idea is for the Patriots to constrain their spending to “off cycle” so that they aren’t involved in bidding wars with every other team in the league.

 

[Eck'sSneakyCheese]

Let's compare to the Bills for a minute using this year's cap hits...

QB Josh Allen $16.4
TE Dawson Knox $2.7m
TE OJ Howard $2.9m
Total - $23m

QB Mac Jones $3.5m
TE Hunter Henry $15m
TE Jonnu Smith $13.7m
Total - $32.2m

& you can kind of quickly see why they don't have much cap room despite having a rookie QB.

Knox is still on his rookie contract and would probably fetch more than Henry or Smith on the open market. Howard is a reclamation project. I don’t know if the point is they overspent and therefore have no cap room or if they just have more expensive players and therefore have no cap room. Do you really think they allocated their funds incorrectly? Especially with what the lack of production from the TE position since Gronk’s departure?

 

[JM3]

Knox is still on his rookie contract and would probably fetch more than Henry or Smith on the open market. Howard is a reclamation project. I don’t know if the point is they overspent and therefore have no cap room or if they just have more expensive players and therefore have no cap room. Do you really think they allocated their funds incorrectly? Especially with what the lack of production from the TE position since Gronk’s departure?

I was only attempting to answer the question of why they do not have '22 cap room despite having a rookie contract QB.

In hindsight, the Smith/Agholor contracts seem not great, but I understood the process at the time & if I wasn't out on the signings when they made them, it would be hypocritical in hindsight for blasting them for not working out.

& the fact that the Bills have other good rookie contract players like Knox, & Josh Allen's cap hit is still low really helps them field a more complete team at this point.

 

[drb22222222]

A possible team strategy was to cram in as many free agent signings last year when the market was low and push salaries to this year to sign even more. This is because you are already punting last year for the compensatory pick system. This year you take note of whats available but you try to leverage the compensatory pick system. I think J.C. Jackson will qualify? if you are more familiar with the system than me are we likely to qualify for picks based on the moves so far?

 

[lexrageorge]

A possible team strategy was to cram in as many free agent signings last year when the market was low and push salaries to this year to sign even more. This is because you are already punting last year for the compensatory pick system. This year you take note of whats available but you try to leverage the compensatory pick system. I think J.C. Jackson will qualify? if you are more familiar with the system than me are we likely to qualify for picks based on the moves so far?

Compensatory picks would arrive in 2023.

Doubt the Pats made it part of their strategy as there is too much randomness involved and they tend to be not great picks. And there were reports they tried to sign Jackson.

 

[Cellar-Door]

A possible team strategy was to cram in as many free agent signings last year when the market was low and push salaries to this year to sign even more. This is because you are already punting last year for the compensatory pick system. This year you take note of whats available but you try to leverage the compensatory pick system. I think J.C. Jackson will qualify? if you are more familiar with the system than me are we likely to qualify for picks based on the moves so far?

Nick Korte is usually good at this. He has the Patriots as likely to get a 3rd and a 6th next year.