Hayward to Boston...Really, We Mean It

Sam Ray Not

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Even worse, from SLC Dunk, the official Jazz outlet of SB Nation...

https://www.slcdunk.com/nba-free-agency/2017/7/4/15920034/nba-free-agency-2017-gordon-hayward-boston-celtics-utah-jazz-miami-heat-otto-porter-danilo-gallinari

I mean, I expected a fair measure of salt (!), but as an SBN mod/writer (on Golden State of Mind) I gotta say I was pretty shocked by the OP's unsubtle reference to Hayward's "coming out" and bold-type "#HappyPrideDayGordon" -- which the writer still has not deleted even after an LGBT poster stepped up to say how inappopriate it was.

Shades of the whole OKC "Cupcake" thing with Durant, only a lot more explicit and hateful.

Ah well ... I guess Thunder and Jazz fans do not deserve players (and people) who are as absolutely fabulous as Durant and Hayward. :)
 

moly99

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I don't get your concern about the cap issues.
By "cap issues" I mean that we have to clear cap space to sign Hayward. Crowder is a likely casualty of that process.

The 2016 Celtics won 53 games and went to the ECF. In the 6 weeks that have followed, they have added an all-star SF and arguably the top offensive rookie in the draft. And they added to the pick arsenal.
You are only counting the additions to the team, and are ignoring the subtractions.

The Celtics won 53 games because of their depth, and now they are trading that in to sign Hayward. I think Hayward is a great addition to the team. But I also think people are underrating how much Amir, Olynyk, Crowder and Bradley helped us last year.

Hayward had 10.4 WS last season, while Olynyk had 4.1 WS and Crowder had 6.7.
 
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bosox79

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Hayward had 10.4 WS last season, while Olynyk had 4.1 WS last season and Crowder had 6.7.
So? This is incredibly disingenuous when you can only play 5 guys at once. Plus we probably aren't losing both Bradley and Crowder, and other players will be coming. If by some chance Bradley and Crowder are both traded, a 30 minute player is coming back. Otherwise, only 1 is being moved.
 
Sep 13, 2013
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Can someone comb back through and list the people that said, basically, 'fuck you GH, stay in utah'? Just for posterities sake?
Put me on the list.

Fantasizing here, but KD -> GH is a pretty steep drop off and this signing closes a lot of doors.

I actually like him as a player (that footwork), but worry about how giving the max to a guy who has never won anything, and could be perceived as Steven's golden boy/Larry Bird 2.0 affects the locker room.

Professional athlete egos + salary cap + perception of bias + Boston media = potential trouble.
 

luckiestman

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Put me on the list.

Fantasizing here, but KD -> GH is a pretty steep drop off and this signing closes a lot of doors.

I actually like him as a player (that footwork), but worry about how giving the max to a guy who has never won anything, and could be perceived as Steven's golden boy/Larry Bird 2.0 affects the locker room.

Professional athlete egos + salary cap + perception of bias + Boston media = potential trouble.

Otto Porter just got > $26M/year. Hayward is a bargain. Closed almost no doors. We can sign our own guys over the cap, but can't sign FA that way. This is a major win. We have a team that can compete for the East and if one of these kids becomes smething special, we are looking at Spurs East. What a glorious time to be a Celtics fan!
 
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DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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One other thing to note - in the chart posted by DrewDawg from the KOC article you can see the pace difference that Hayward played versus the pace he will likely play with Boston. So while you lose some of the players that contributed heavily to the Celtics 53 win/ECF appearance team of '16-17, you are taking a player who is more versatile than those guys and pairing him with a style of play that favors his strengths offensively. In short, there is an upgrade occurring for both the Celtics and Hayward.

The other thing to consider is that Hayward now gives the Celtics another dependable scorer who can create his own shot when Thomas is off the floor or when the C's want options at the ends of quarters/games. This will help Thomas immensely as team's won't be able to double on him as much and Hayward will also command more help. The Celtics can also run some really interesting PnRs with some combo of Thomas, Horford and Hayward.

I cannot wait for October 20th/21st to roll around...
 

luckiestman

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Bowiac, on real plus minus, is it robust to when guys switch teams and systems? I looked at Durant and he was remarkably consistent over the last OKC year and the Warriors year. I'll be interested in looking at Paul and Hayward this year vs last.
 

E5 Yaz

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Woj has been given the ESPN marching orders. On SC tonight, even after reading Hayward's piece in the Players Tribune, he stated that Stevens wasn't much of a factor in this decision
 

Buster Olney the Lonely

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Even worse, from SLC Dunk, the official Jazz outlet of SB Nation...

https://www.slcdunk.com/nba-free-agency/2017/7/4/15920034/nba-free-agency-2017-gordon-hayward-boston-celtics-utah-jazz-miami-heat-otto-porter-danilo-gallinari

I mean, I expected a fair measure of salt (!), but as an SBN mod/writer (on Golden State of Mind) I gotta say I was pretty shocked by the OP's unsubtle reference to Hayward's "coming out" and bold-type "#HappyPrideDayGordon" -- which the writer still has not deleted even after an LGBT poster stepped up to say how inappopriate it was.
I went to that site last night after the news broke, read that piece and thought it was completely ridiculous. I went back this morning to see if there's a retraction or apology. Nope. The author doubled-down:

"Is this a play on words? Yes it is. Gordon is taking Pride in his decision - he’s PROUD of it. He wrote hundreds of words on the subject. Celtic Pride is an idiom that’s used today not just for the Celtic people, but also in reference for the fans and traditions of the Boston Celtics. Furthermore, there was a movie called “Celtic Pride” where Boston fans abducted the star player from the Utah Jazz."
 

HomeRunBaker

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I don't get your concern about the cap issues. We just got a 27 year-old all-star just about to enter his prime years. Our top 2 young players are wings who will greatly benefit from having to go against him in practice every day. The Isaiah decision looms but that was going to be an issue with or without Hayward.

It is very rare to add a player of this caliber for free. This was a huge coup for the franchise. The 2016 Celtics won 53 games and went to the ECF. In the 6 weeks that have followed, they have added an all-star SF and arguably the top offensive rookie in the draft. And they added to the pick arsenal. This offseason has been awesome so far.
Over the past 12 months Danny Ainge has added Al Horford and Gordon Hayward for free, while swapping KG and Pierce's rocking chairs for Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. Oh....and we still have the '18 Nets pick, the '18/19 Nets/Kings pick, and the future Memphis pick which can become unprotected in '21.

Let that sink in for a minute. So Auerbachian.
 
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Manzivino

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Over the past 12 months Danny Ainge has added Al Horford and Gordon Hayward for free, while swapping KG and Pierce's rocking chairs for Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. Oh....and we still have the '18 Nets pick, the '18/19 Nets/Kings pick, and the future Memphis pick which can become unprotected in '21.

Let that sink in for a minute. So Auerbachian.
You forgot the Clippers pick. Plus all their own picks.
 

the moops

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He's not a great player, and certainly overpaid now
Put me on the list.

Fantasizing here, but KD -> GH is a pretty steep drop off and this signing closes a lot of doors.

I actually like him as a player (that footwork), but worry about how giving the max to a guy who has never won anything, and could be perceived as Steven's golden boy/Larry Bird 2.0 affects the locker room.

Professional athlete egos + salary cap + perception of bias + Boston media = potential trouble.
KD hadnt won anything
 

BigSoxFan

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Would anyone here trade the Celtics' assets (players, future picks) for any other team outside of Golden State? I could see Cleveland, at least for a year. But anyone else? It really is remarkable how well this team is set up for the next 5-10 years.
 

ALiveH

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Ainge is in an interesting / tough spot. There's gotta be more moves to come to fill out the roster. We lost all our rotation bigs except for Horford, and I'm not sure whether Horford wants to play 4 or 5 this year. If Zizic, Yabusele, the new German, or Crowder are our starter at the other big position then we're in trouble. If Ainge can add big veteran bodies, this team should win almost 60 games and be able to actually be competitive with the Cavs in the ECF.
 

RedOctober3829

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Would anyone here trade the Celtics' assets (players, future picks) for any other team outside of Golden State? I could see Cleveland, at least for a year. But anyone else? It really is remarkable how well this team is set up for the next 5-10 years.
I wouldn't. It's remarkable how well the rebuild has gone. Danny hit a HR with Brad, another one with the Brooklyn trade, the IT trade, Rondo for Crowder. I think he's almost reached B.B. Status in terms of trusting what he does.
 

DrewDawg

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Hayward had 10.4 WS last season, while Olynyk had 4.1 WS and Crowder had 6.7.
Are you completely ignoring that Hayward did that in 2500 minutes, while Olynyk/Crowder did it in almost 3900 minutes?

In about the same number of minutes, Hayward's WS were more than 50% higher than Crowder's.
 
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smastroyin

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Even worse, from SLC Dunk, the official Jazz outlet of SB Nation...

https://www.slcdunk.com/nba-free-agency/2017/7/4/15920034/nba-free-agency-2017-gordon-hayward-boston-celtics-utah-jazz-miami-heat-otto-porter-danilo-gallinari

I mean, I expected a fair measure of salt (!), but as an SBN mod/writer (on Golden State of Mind) I gotta say I was pretty shocked by the OP's unsubtle reference to Hayward's "coming out" and bold-type "#HappyPrideDayGordon" -- which the writer still has not deleted even after an LGBT poster stepped up to say how inappopriate it was.

Shades of the whole OKC "Cupcake" thing with Durant, only a lot more explicit and hateful.

Ah well ... I guess Thunder and Jazz fans do not deserve players (and people) who are as absolutely fabulous as Durant and Hayward. :)
Add in all of the problems the Mormons have with homosexuality in the first place, and that piece is a fucking piece of shit. I hope that guy gets his mouth "washed out" with gallons and gallons of fetid puke water from the Great Salt Lake.

I do think SLC fans have a right to be angry, but that's fucked up.
 

TheoShmeo

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I wouldn't. It's remarkable how well the rebuild has gone. Danny hit a HR with Brad, another one with the Brooklyn trade, the IT trade, Rondo for Crowder. I think he's almost reached B.B. Status in terms of trusting what he does.
I'm ecstatic about the signing and love Ainge but that's a few ticks too far in my view.

Bill has had the Pats in the contender mix in the parity/salary cap era for nearing two decades. That's unprecedented.

I'll trust Danny a lot more once the Cs win another one or, at the least, are a legitimate title contender.

As of now, they still are not (or it's not clear if they are), and they have to make a series of moves to pare salary and build around the best players.

Do I think he will do a good job of that? Hell, yes. But you just pushed Danny near the head of all time great team builders pack.
 

bosockboy

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I'm ecstatic about the signing and love Ainge but that's a few ticks too far in my view.

Bill has had the Pats in the contender mix in the parity/salary cap era for nearing two decades. That's unprecedented.

I'll trust Danny a lot more once the Cs win another one or, at the least, are a legitimate title contender.

As of now, they still are not (or it's not clear if they are), and they have to make a series of moves to pare salary and build around the best players.

Do I think he will do a good job of that? Hell, yes. But you just pushed Danny near the head of all time great team builders pack.
Maybe another way to say it, is he is in the midst of the best rebuild in league history.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Ainge is in an interesting / tough spot. There's gotta be more moves to come to fill out the roster. We lost all our rotation bigs except for Horford, and I'm not sure whether Horford wants to play 4 or 5 this year. If Zizic, Yabusele, the new German, or Crowder are our starter at the other big position then we're in trouble. If Ainge can add big veteran bodies, this team should win almost 60 games and be able to actually be competitive with the Cavs in the ECF.
Our rotations bigs were one of if not out weakest link though......I'm glad we lost them all! Ainge's M.O. has remained consistent in this regard. Pay top dollar for top talent while filling in the bench with cheaper value players while never paying market or above market value for these players.....in a lot of ways it is similar to Theo's approach in the early 2000's with guys like Bellhorn, Ortiz, Pokey, and the bullpen guys. Let someone else pay $12m AAV for Olynyk's backup minutes and I'm very confident that most or all of his production can be replaced at a fraction of the cost.

The Amir and Zeller signings were team friendly with player options which essentially made them expiring deals. I look for a similar move to be made once things shake out with the anticipated Crowder/Smart/Bradley trade. Zizic and Tatum will provide frontcourt depth and we really only need 1-2 more bodies....one on an Amir/Zeller-type deal and the other on a vet min like we did with Gerald last year. There are plenty of candidates out there to fill these limited roles and the FA money is drying up fairly quickly. We probably are priced out of Mike Muscala who would be the perfect fit but James Johnson or Dante Cunningham are two that could be had on an Amir-type deal with an option. The other cheaper min spot has candidates like Lavoy Allen, Mike Dunleavy, David Lee, and Tiago Splitter. Adding one from each group should suffice while creating an expiring salary slot and veteran depth for the 9-12 spots..
 

Light-Tower-Power

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Just can't wait to see how well he fits into Brad's system. ~40% from 3, creates his own shot, and athletic enough to drive to the basket and finish at the rim. And an above average and versatile defender. I think he's kind of been hidden in Utah and the general NBA world doesn't recognize how good this dude is. I think we're in for a treat watching him play and continue to develop under Brad.
 

luckiestman

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Add in all of the problems the Mormons have with homosexuality in the first place, and that piece is a fucking piece of shit. I hope that guy gets his mouth "washed out" with gallons and gallons of fetid puke water from the Great Salt Lake.

I do think SLC fans have a right to be angry, but that's fucked up.

Guy is from Detroit and named Amar. He might be Mormon but I don't know that he is.
 

smastroyin

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Sure but we can assume a large portion of Jazz fans and his readers are Mormon, yes? That's kind of my point. He's playing the "we don't want you anyway because you're gay" and that's kind of how a lot of gay kids feel in and around SLC. So I think it's particularly shitty, even if the writer doesn't understand that or even have personal animus toward gay folks.
 

lars10

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I'm ecstatic about the signing and love Ainge but that's a few ticks too far in my view.

Bill has had the Pats in the contender mix in the parity/salary cap era for nearing two decades. That's unprecedented.

I'll trust Danny a lot more once the Cs win another one or, at the least, are a legitimate title contender.

As of now, they still are not (or it's not clear if they are), and they have to make a series of moves to pare salary and build around the best players.

Do I think he will do a good job of that? Hell, yes. But you just pushed Danny near the head of all time great team builders pack.
I don't think Ainge is in BB territory either, but it is a lot harder to build and rebuild a team in the NBA. You can't make any/very many mistakes because of the much shorter roster, but team changing players also aren't available very often and most of them have incentives to stay where they are. Ainge has set up the team to have the most possible chances and has seemed to at least taken BB's draft strategy of accumulating picks and not being afraid of trading down.
 

luckiestman

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Sure but we can assume a large portion of Jazz fans and his readers are Mormon, yes? That's kind of my point. He's playing the "we don't want you anyway because you're gay" and that's kind of how a lot of gay kids feel in and around SLC. So I think it's particularly shitty, even if the writer doesn't understand that or even have personal animus toward gay folks.

Oh, I think the authors walk back is laughable and his blog post was surprisingly anti gay for 2017. I'm just saying I don't see what it has to do with Mormons.
 

OnWisc

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Add in all of the problems the Mormons have with homosexuality in the first place, and that piece is a fucking piece of shit. I hope that guy gets his mouth "washed out" with gallons and gallons of fetid puke water from the Great Salt Lake.

I do think SLC fans have a right to be angry, but that's fucked up.
Given the surrounding content in the article, it's really just an ill-conceived attempt at a joke (followed by an even more ill-conceived defense) made by a somewhat dim individual who likely has no future in journalism (and I say "likely" only due to the ever-eroding level of qualifications the profession requires, and the fact that one of the few that remain seems to be the lack of self-awareness that this author exhibits in spades). The homophobic tantrum he denies throwing over the exit of a "trivial" player and the self-aggrandizing defense ("I need to re-write for clarity and shouldn’t RUSH to write a story on a National holiday after getting an e-mail from Hayward’s people," "I guess I need to improve my writing and/or not try to immediately get the most up to date info to Jazz fans who have all been waiting on pins and needles all day long.") compete for the most absurd facet of this "story". It's not like this was a well thought out piece by a stalwart of the SLC journalism community who threw in an unsettling dash of homophobia at the end. It's a borderline message-board caliber rant by somebody whose opinion is probably (hopefully) held in high regard only by himself.
 

smastroyin

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Fair enough - if backwards Tony Armas didn't bring it up I would never have heard of this guy, doesn't mean I don't think it's particularly shitty still. The Mormon church has been craptacular towards LBGTQ, and no matter how much diversification the city tries to add (and they are!) SLC is still mostly a Mormon place, that's the connection in my brain.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Bill has had the Pats in the contender mix in the parity/salary cap era for nearing two decades. That's unprecedented.
BB also had the skill/luck of having a superhuman GOAT candidate at what has become the most important position in sports.

Without discounting his ability to evaluate football talent, BB's greatest skill as a team builder was to draft TB and then convince him that his greatest success in life would be to stay with BB through his career. Everything else flowed through that relationship.
 
Sep 13, 2013
40
What doors does this close? Be specific.
They are now out of the max FA market in 2018 and 2019 (Lebron,, Durant, Westbrook, Klay, Wall, Porzingis etc).

There is a very strong argument that says GH is better than any player who will sign in Boston in that window.

The counter argument says that the NBA is in flux and a lot can change in two years.
 

DavidTai

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They are now out of the max FA market in 2018 and 2019 (Lebron,, Durant, Westbrook, Klay, Wall, Porzingis etc).

There is a very strong argument that says GH is better than any player who will sign in Boston in that window.

The counter argument says that the NBA is in flux and a lot can change in two years.
I don't think that matters because this year was the last year that the cap room would be available.

The cap holds and other salary raises would have closed off that anyway next year, so if you wanted a max free agent, this was the last opportunity to get one.
 

smastroyin

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yes, you could chance it and renounce Smart, and let IT and AB go as FA, while also having already renounced KO this off-season anyway and not signing anyone to any more than 1+1 deals, which is fine when it's Kevin Durant of course.

It's pretty chance-y.
 

bowiac

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Bowiac, on real plus minus, is it robust to when guys switch teams and systems? I looked at Durant and he was remarkably consistent over the last OKC year and the Warriors year. I'll be interested in looking at Paul and Hayward this year vs last.
It's somewhat robust. This is really what set RPM (and RAPM) apart from previous metrics and convinced the stat community - a few tests found that it predicted team performance for teams with a lot of roster turnover better than any other public metrics. That said, it's still just a statistic in an extremely context-dependent sport, so you need to be careful with it.

In my win projections, I use my own version of RPM, and then apply a 20% regression to the mean for all players. On top of that, any player who has changed teams or coaches gets an additional 20% regression to the mean to account for context changes.

I also regress players who derive a lot a lot of their value from high usage when they move to teams with a lot of other high usage guys already (i.e., only one ball to go around), but this factor is rarely a big deal, since players tend to become more efficient as they shoot less, which balances in terms of on-court impact.

I am very optimistic in terms of fit with Hayward, so I think depending on what other moves are made, this may end up being conservative.
 

Reardons Beard

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Guys let's not get too far ahead of ourselves. Danny is awesome at what he does and has this team in a great spot - but if we're looking for Belichickian level he has a ways to go. The closest comparison in the modern day are the Spurs - BUT if this emerging core can get to the finals at least three times and win twice or more I think you can make the argument on par with San Antonio.

Whether they do it or not will sure as hell will be fun to watch.
 

ehaz

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They are now out of the max FA market in 2018 and 2019 (Lebron,, Durant, Westbrook, Klay, Wall, Porzingis etc).

There is a very strong argument that says GH is better than any player who will sign in Boston in that window.

The counter argument says that the NBA is in flux and a lot can change in two years.
Couldn't they also trade Horford if they felt like one of those players would sign in 2019?
 
Sep 13, 2013
40
I don't think that matters because this year was the last year that the cap room would be available.

The cap holds and other salary raises would have closed off that anyway next year, so if you wanted a max free agent, this was the last opportunity to get one.
They would have to renounce all free agents (AB, Smart, IT) and have acquired ~10M in expiring contracts - basically what they just did.

Not saying it's the best option, just that it's no longer an option.
 

Kenny F'ing Powers

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Thought dump:

1. Other than Klay and maybe Porzyngis - who will probably be content now that Phil is gone - no key free agents are signing here. Theyre resigning with their current teams (Wall, Westbrook, KD) or playing player/GM (Lebron). With what GH brings to the table, he's probably a more complete player than both Klay and Porzyngis. This was the best chance they had to sign an impact player and they capitalized.

2. People keep acting like they should have kept rolling the cap space over and kept our depth. That wasn't happening. Once this offseason passes, their window to sign free agents is done. IT needs a new contract, KO was getting money, Bradley would need a new contrct, Smart will eventually need a new contract...this was their chance to acquire player during the IT/Horford window.

3. They will get another chance at a free agent in 3-4 years when the new window opens even wider (Brown, Tatum, maybe Smart, BKN/LAL/SAC picks, Zizic, etc). They are ultra competitive now and keep the real window open if next year's draft picks materialize. If Hayward remains a stud, but IT or Al fall off a cliff, we keep a superstar in Hayward, have a young nucleus around him, and still get a chance at a top tier free agent. This is a fucking homerun.

Anyone nitpicking this is doing so because Hayward isn't Durant. That's dumb.
 

4 6 3 DP

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And I guess it’s pretty crazy. Because seven years later, I had to make an even tougher decision — and again, Coach Stevens and I found ourselves at a crossroads together. And again, he was the person I knew I could count on the most.
Im not sure how many times I've ever heard an athlete refer to a coach this way. And he didn't have to even go there in his posting.
 

DrewDawg

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Rudy Gobert, could just be a coincidence, but...



And the fan that thinks they gave GH the playoff berth and series win, not the other way around.

 
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DrewDawg

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He’s gotten far better at finishing through contact, not only shooting 69 percent at the rim, but also finishing the season with more and-1s than shots rejected. To give that context, consider that only three other wing players showed a similar ability to hit and-1s more than they got blocked, per Basketball-Reference.com: Kevin Durant, Kawhi Leonard and LeBron.
 

Van Everyman

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Thought dump:

1. Other than Klay and maybe Porzyngis - who will probably be content now that Phil is gone - no key free agents are signing here. Theyre resigning with their current teams (Wall, Westbrook, KD) or playing player/GM (Lebron). With what GH brings to the table, he's probably a more complete player than both Klay and Porzyngis. This was the best chance they had to sign an impact player and they capitalized.

2. People keep acting like they should have kept rolling the cap space over and kept our depth. That wasn't happening. Once this offseason passes, their window to sign free agents is done. IT needs a new contract, KO was getting money, Bradley would need a new contrct, Smart will eventually need a new contract...this was their chance to acquire player during the IT/Horford window.

3. They will get another chance at a free agent in 3-4 years when the new window opens even wider (Brown, Tatum, maybe Smart, BKN/LAL/SAC picks, Zizic, etc). They are ultra competitive now and keep the real window open if next year's draft picks materialize. If Hayward remains a stud, but IT or Al fall off a cliff, we keep a superstar in Hayward, have a young nucleus around him, and still get a chance at a top tier free agent. This is a fucking homerun.

Anyone nitpicking this is doing so because Hayward isn't Durant. That's dumb.
These are good points. I would simply add that, while his production would be hard to replace, the Celtics also aren't hamstrung by a bloated IT contract if he turns out to be hurt worse than it seems and loses his elite offensive status. They also have enough assets going forward that they could ostensibly replace his production through the draft or trades.

Signing Hayward really was the best of all possible outcomes given where they are right now -- they get to play for the present and continue to build and develop for the future.