Hayward to Boston...Really, We Mean It

sox311

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That's what she said.
Gordon that is...

Today we found out that he was not selected as a member of the three All NBA Teams. Which may, or may not cost him a lot of money.

As a member of the NBA for >6 years but <10 years Gordon Hayward is eligible for a 30% max this summer.
The most his current team can offer is the 30% max for 5 years with 8% raises.
The most another team can offer is the 30% max for 4 years with 5% raises.

Roughly, if he signed a 5 year max with Utah it would be at $180M, a 4 year deal elsewhere would get him $132M.

Other options include playing out his contract, attempting to be named all NBA next year and receive the DPE. Signing a 4 year deal elsewhere with an opt out after the third year to reach FA as a 10 year eligible for the Super Max at 35% to make up for the missed $40+ million.

We will see just how connected he and Brad are/were.
The Jazz made him go out and sign an offer sheet rather than give him what he asked for, that can't sit to well with him.

Mark Titus, from The Ringer who played at OSU with Oden and Conely, went to the same high school as Hayward. He said that Hayward's parents are big Purdue supporters with season tickets and the such. Brad recruited him when he was six foot nothing. When he grew eight inches and Purdue came knocking on his door he turned down a full ride from his parent's team and school and stuck with Brad. There has to be some smoke around all of this, as there has been for at least three years now, lets see where it goes.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Nice article about Hayward here.

Utah can offer him very little more than what other teams can offer.

If Boston wants him and he loves Brad Stevens as much as everyone thinks, then he's coming here, at a cost (to him) of $5 million over 4 years, most of which he could potentially make up in his next deal.
 

cheech13

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Given how feckless the Jazz looked against the Warriors and that he didn't qualify the "Super Max" extension, I'd say the odds of him leaving are at least 50/50 now and I wouldn't have said the same six months ago.
 

bowiac

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Given how feckless the Jazz looked against the Warriors and that he didn't qualify the "Super Max" extension, I'd say the odds of him leaving are at least 50/50 now and I wouldn't have said the same six months ago.
We'll see how those odds fare after he sees how feckless the Celtics look against the Cavs.
 

BigSoxFan

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Since this is the Heighwood wishcasting thread, I'm going in with the assumption that we land him, Kelly is a goner, and the Eurostashes both come over:

C: Horford / Zizic
PF: ??? / Yabusele
SF: Crowder / Brown
SG: Hayward / Bradley / Fultz
PG: Thomas / Smart / Rozier

That is an absolute embarrassment of riches at the guard and wing spots but we'd obviously have a huge question mark at PF, as I doubt Yabusele will be ready for many minutes. Clearly, Bradley looks like the odd man out here but I'm not sure how much value he has as a standalone asset. I think Brown may be ready for a starting role as soon as next year so both Bradley and Crowder could be packaged for a big. But the question is who? I'm really at a loss for possible targets.
 

JCizzle

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We'll see how those odds fare after he sees how feckless the Celtics look against the Cavs.
What else are the Jazz able to add though? At least with us, it's feckless plus him and Fultz... and maybe that's slightly closer to not feckless anymore.
 

luckiestman

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I'm expecting him on the Celtics with a 3 year deal. I give us greater than 50/50 (assuming Danny likes him).
 

DrewDawg

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Nice article about Hayward here.

Utah can offer him very little more than what other teams can offer.
$46 million more over 1 extra year. That's not "very little" for peons like us :)

However:

There’s only a $5.4 million difference between what Utah and another team can offer over the first four years of the contract. The fifth year of extra security that’s available if he re-signs in Utah is nice, but the salary cap figure could ascend to about $120 million in 2020; Hayward would be eligible to sign the supermax as early as 2020 if he signs a contract with the option to opt out that year (since it’d be his 10th season).
If he leaves Utah and gets another max deal after wherever he signs this summer, the difference shrinks to $2 million.
 

bowiac

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What else are the Jazz able to add though? At least with us, it's feckless plus him and Fultz... and maybe that's slightly closer to not feckless anymore.
This is fair. I agree the Celtics are a better bet to win, especially after they add Hayward.

I'm still pretty skeptical that he leaves, as the Jazz are an "up and coming" team even if they're not as shiny as the Celtics. College recruiting was a long time ago.
 

Eddie Jurak

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Interestingly, the All-NBA thing didn't really matter. Ryan Bernardoni:


  1. Doesn't really belong on a Celtics blog, so here's a tweetstorm on Gordon Hayward and why All NBA wasn't a big deal…
  2. Hayward is 27yo and just finished season 7. He isn't eligible to sign an All NBA super max starting next season.
  3. Instead, he would have had to opt-in to last year of current deal at $16.7M, then sign a 5 year extension, making a 6-year commitment.
  4. That would end when he's 33, having made ~$227M, dpending on the exact 2018-19 salary cap.
  5. If he signs a "normal" deal he can start at $30.3M in 2017-18, meaning he makes $13.5M more next season.
  6. The All NBA deal would make up that difference by season 4, but in a normal 3+1 deal that's when he could opt-out.
  7. That opt-out would come when he's 30 years old. A 27yo 1st time All Star is going to think he'll still be great at 30yo.
  8. So in his mind he could be thinking he's signing 3 seasons at 27yo then 4-5 more years for 35% of cap at 30yo.
  9. That comes to a 7-8 year run of making max money, instead of 1 year making 55% of max then 5 years at super-max.
  10. At the end of the super-max path, he'd be 33 and no longer in prime age to re-up on a second max contract.
  11. The opt-in+super-max is a very SECURE future, but not necessarily the absolute maximum $'s for a young, confident player.
  12. If the salary cap increases significantly between 2018-2020, it might even be the most $ over six seasons to start with a 3+1.
  13. It would be good for UTH to be able to offer, but a 3+1 is a very good path for him, and possibly his preference regardless.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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What else are the Jazz able to add though? At least with us, it's feckless plus him and Fultz... and maybe that's slightly closer to not feckless anymore.
Milos Teodosic apparently wants to come over to play for Quinn Snyder.

According to these guys, Jazz's roster currently shapes up like this.

Guaranteed Salary
Player Options
Team Options
  • None
Non-Guaranteed Salary
Restricted Free Agents
  • Joe Ingles ($2,687,500 qualifying offer / $4,085,000 cap hold)
  • Total: $4,085,000
Cap Holds
  • Gordon Hayward ($24,109,710) — If player option is declined
  • George Hill ($15,200,000)
  • Shelvin Mack ($4,623,335)
  • No. 24 overall pick ($1,579,440)
  • Jeff Withey ($1,471,382)
  • No. 30 overall pick ($1,394,520)
  • Total: $48,378,387
George Hill was extremely important for them this season and he's going to get a raise. If they sign him and Heyworth, there's not a ton of flexibility left for other players. Teodosic they might get for the nontaxpayer MLE but he's 30 and is going to have a hard time guarding NBA players. They say that Exum still isn't the same since his knee injury.

If I'm Heywerd and I'm only focused on winning, the Cs are a no-brainer. However, I'm sure there's a lot more to that decision than just having the best chance to win.
 

JCizzle

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This is fair. I agree the Celtics are a better bet to win, especially after they add Hayward.

I'm still pretty skeptical that he leaves, as the Jazz are an "up and coming" team even if they're not as shiny as the Celtics. College recruiting was a long time ago.
I tend to agree with you and think it's most likely he stays. I think we give him the best shot, but you're right that the Jazz aren't exactly an 'over the hill' team like the Clippers or something similar. At a minimum, I think giving us a 50% chance is too high.

Milos Teodosic apparently wants to come over to play for Quinn Snyder.

According to these guys, Jazz's roster currently shapes up like this.

Guaranteed Salary
Player Options
Team Options
  • None
Non-Guaranteed Salary
Restricted Free Agents
  • Joe Ingles ($2,687,500 qualifying offer / $4,085,000 cap hold)
  • Total: $4,085,000
Cap Holds
  • Gordon Hayward ($24,109,710) — If player option is declined
  • George Hill ($15,200,000)
  • Shelvin Mack ($4,623,335)
  • No. 24 overall pick ($1,579,440)
  • Jeff Withey ($1,471,382)
  • No. 30 overall pick ($1,394,520)
  • Total: $48,378,387
George Hill was extremely important for them this season and he's going to get a raise. If they sign him and Heyworth, there's not a ton of flexibility left for other players. Teodosic they might get for the nontaxpayer MLE but he's 30 and is going to have a hard time guarding NBA players. They say that Exum still isn't the same since his knee injury.

If I'm Heywerd and I'm only focused on winning, the Cs are a no-brainer. However, I'm sure there's a lot more to that decision than just having the best chance to win.
This is awesome!
 

the moops

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Since this is the Heighwood wishcasting thread, I'm going in with the assumption that we land him, Kelly is a goner, and the Eurostashes both come over:

C: Horford / Zizic
PF: ??? / Yabusele
SF: Crowder / Brown
SG: Hayward / Bradley / Fultz
PG: Thomas / Smart / Rozier
To play along, if this was the roster, you would see a bunch of Hayward/Crowder in the SF/PF spots in small lineups.
 

JCizzle

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In terms of Haywahd himself, I like the progression he's shown even if his 3P% might be due to regress a bit. He shot ~%40 on 374 3PA, which was surprisingly not a career high. Last year he was ~35% on 410 3PA, so maybe split the difference and assume he's a 37% shooter. Other than the scoring uptick, his basic slash line seems pretty similar to Jae's:

Per 36
Hayw3rd:
22.9 / 5.6 / 3.6

Jae:
15.9 / 6.4 / 2.4

Seems like a perfect fit for our system, especially if we're able to keep both him and Jae.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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In terms of Haywahd himself, I like the progression he's shown even if his 3P% might be due to regress a bit. He shot ~%40 on 374 3PA, which was surprisingly not a career high. Last year he was ~35% on 410 3PA, so maybe split the difference and assume he's a 37% shooter. Other than the scoring uptick, his basic slash line seems pretty similar to Jae's:

Per 36
Hayw3rd:
22.9 / 5.6 / 3.6

Jae:
15.9 / 6.4 / 2.4

Seems like a perfect fit for our system, especially if we're able to keep both him and Jae.
I love Crowder and his contract but Hayward has pieces of Crowder in his stool. Dude is a legit scorer and can create his own shot while Crowder is limited to 3 and D with some backdoor cuts to the basket here and there. Hayward, IT, and Fultz would be extremely formidable in scoring department.
 

bosox79

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The Supermax thing still matters though. If he is still a good player when his contract ends, he has that entire years worth of salary + $7mil. That could potentially be $57 mil+ for one year.
 

Devizier

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One thing that Hayward could provide that no other (realistic) free agent could is the ability to create his own shot. As many of us have noted, the Celtics have one guy who can do that. A small lineup with Horford, Crowder, and Hayward in the front court would provide a ton of spacing and open looks, too.

They would get fucking crushed on the boards, however.
 

InstaFace

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Isn't Wayhard listed as a SF? He's 6'8" 230, and i thought he played mostly at the 3.
 

ALiveH

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Guys like Hardway, who just missed the all-NBA 3rd team are the new market inefficiency?
 

pjheff

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To play along, if this was the roster, you would see a bunch of Hayward/Crowder in the SF/PF spots in small lineups.
If the C's go all in on Haigh-Wood, I suspect that packages with him and Crowder at the forward positions would be our big lineup. Going small would replace one of them with Smart. Jumbo would have Zizic and Horford on the floor at the same time.
 

Jeff Van GULLY

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If the C's sign Hayward, Jae Crowder will not be on the team next season. Hayward is mainly a SF with some positionally versatility.

Crowder and a guard would be traded for front court help.
 

BoSoxFink

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Best move is to sign Hawyard and draft Fultz and then package Bradley, Crowder and possibly next years first and find some other stud.
 

Jeff Van GULLY

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Best move is to sign Hawyard and draft Fultz and then package Bradley, Crowder and possibly next years first and find some other stud.
I disagree with trading the 18 BKN pick. Keep the pick and extend the window as long as possible.

But yes, trade Bradley/crowder or smart/crowder or
Rozier/crowder and a non-Brooklyn 1st for a very good PF/C.
 

Average Game James

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I disagree with trading the 18 BKN pick. Keep the pick and extend the window as long as possible.

But yes, trade Bradley/crowder or smart/crowder or
Rozier/crowder and a non-Brooklyn 1st for a very good PF/C.
Love this plan in theory... but who are realistic targets at PF/C the Celtics could hope to acquire with a package based around Crowder and Bradley/Smart?
 

BigSoxFan

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I disagree with trading the 18 BKN pick. Keep the pick and extend the window as long as possible.

But yes, trade Bradley/crowder or smart/crowder or
Rozier/crowder and a non-Brooklyn 1st for a very good PF/C.
Yeah, given the potential big man bonanza in the 2018 draft, I don't trade that pick unless we're getting something substantial in return (like a Porzingis). You get a Bamba, Ayton, Porter, etc. and they'd be ready to ascend right as Al starts his decline.
 

Jeff Van GULLY

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Love this plan in theory... but who are realistic targets at PF/C the Celtics could hope to acquire with a package based around Crowder and Bradley/Smart?
I could see them trying to get Vucevic from Orlando . Already were rumors at the trade deadline about him to the C's.

Edit:

Assuming Hayward 3+1 deal.

(FA year)
C: Vucevic ('19)/Zizic ('21 RFA)
PF: Horford ('20)/Yabusele ('21 RFA)
SF: Hayward ('21)/Brown ('20 RFA)
SG: Smart ('18 RFA)/Rozier ('19 RFA)
PG: Thomas (18)/Fultz ('21 RFA)

The lineup combos are insane.
 
Last edited:

the moops

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I imagine most players struggle with the decision to leave their current team to go to a new one. Especially when that player is the only true star the team has had for a while. Hayward really does have such a wonderful out with his Stevens connection though. The whole "nobody believed in me, except coach" makes for such a good story. Perhaps he could shed a tear during his press conference, and maybe even show that pic of his young pimply face next to Stevens.
 

Average Game James

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I could see them trying to get Vucevic from Orlando . Already were rumors at the trade deadline about him to the C's.

Edit:

Assuming Hayward 3+1 deal.

(FA year)
C: Vucevic ('19)/Zizic ('21 RFA)
PF: Horford ('20)/Yabusele ('21 RFA)
SF: Hayward ('21)/Brown ('20 RFA)
SG: Smart ('18 RFA)/Rozier ('19 RFA)
PG: Thomas (18)/Fultz ('21 RFA)

The lineup combos are insane.
Would that work from a cap perspective? Checks out on the ESPN trade machine, but Vuc makes a little south of $12mn per, so sending out Crowder/Bradley only clears ~$3mn. Also likely there would need to be other moving pieces - 1 year of Bradley doesn't seem to make much sense for a rebuilding Magic team.

Amusing side note: the Hollinger analysis has that trade making both teams worse (Boston -4 wins, Orlando -1 win).
 

HomeRunBaker

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There really is no difference between the 2 and the 3 as positions in the league right now. When playing small, that also applies to the 4.
This really isn't true. Sure, there are combo guys who can swing between two positions but when 6-1 Avery Bradley is your 2 you can't say the 2/3 doesn't matter if we are up against Kawhi, LeBron, or Durant at the 3. It absolutely matters.
 

smastroyin

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I realize everyone thinks Johnson is useless and I wouldn't advocate re-signing him but that's largely based on how many minutes he can give you.

But
- Johnson
- Crowder
- Bradley

+Vucevic
+ Hayward

I guess it would be fun to try and outscore teams 118/110 for every 100 possessions but that's probably what you're looking at.
 

pjheff

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This really isn't true. Sure, there are combo guys who can swing between two positions but when 6-1 Avery Bradley is your 2 you can't say the 2/3 doesn't matter if we are up against Kawhi, LeBron, or Durant at the 3. It absolutely matters.
Well, Stevens famously divides players into ball-handlers, wings, swings, and bigs, where the wings are essentially interchangeable 2/3 players. Bradley's inability to be a ball-handler and his lack of size for a wing are more a description of his weaknesses as a player than a refutation of JakeRae's statement about the state of the NBA.
 

luckiestman

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I could see them trying to get Vucevic from Orlando . Already were rumors at the trade deadline about him to the C's.

Edit:

Assuming Hayward 3+1 deal.

(FA year)
C: Vucevic ('19)/Zizic ('21 RFA)
PF: Horford ('20)/Yabusele ('21 RFA)
SF: Hayward ('21)/Brown ('20 RFA)
SG: Smart ('18 RFA)/Rozier ('19 RFA)
PG: Thomas (18)/Fultz ('21 RFA)

The lineup combos are insane.
TBH, I don't like it. I'd rather play Crowder @ 4.
 

bosox79

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If the C's sign Hayward, Jae Crowder will not be on the team next season. Hayward is mainly a SF with some positionally versatility.

Crowder and a guard would be traded for front court help.
They would have to be sold on Jaylen Brown as back up SF and given his role in the playoffs, that seems to be a given. Even then, Jae plays some PF at times. Having Jae Crowder come off the bench for 20-25 minutes a night would be a nice option to have, especially with his contract.

Jaylen and Gordan would give the C's a taller lineup to play with as well. Gorden would cure a lot of the C's problems but they'd still need a rebounder. Hopefully Zizic and Yabusele can provide that.

I wonder how much money Alan Williams from Phoenix is going to get. He seems like a guy the Celtics should target if they had some spare change laying around. He would help immensely on the boards but he's more of a 15-20 minute player and he's not exactly a vet. With Yabu and Zizic, you'd probably want someone with more than 57 games played.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Crowder struggles to guard good 3s because he's undersized. He'd be horrible at 4. Put another way, he has the same wingspan as a Fultz.
That and his lack of hops.

If Crowder could guard 4s, they'd put him on Tristan Thompson and have a much better chance of defending the Cavs. Instead, it seems like the only guy who can give Thompson troubles is Smart, which is kind of nuts.

It would be interesting to see how many people on this board would go insane when Brad rolls out Horford / Haywart / Brown / IT / and Fultz and the Cs can't get any rebounds. However, I'm sure all would be forgiven when people suddenly find out that no one can guard these five people either.
 

JCizzle

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I wonder how Jaylen will evolve as a rebounder. He showed a surprising nose for the ball (at least to me) in our game one loss. When he's attacking the ball, it's hard to deny him because he's so damn long and athletic. I don't recall that type of effort during the season, so maybe it's just a one time deal that will be lost in time, but it also seems like his confidence has taken off since the Wizards series and he's much more willing to impact the game.
 

DrewDawg

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The Supermax thing still matters though. If he is still a good player when his contract ends, he has that entire years worth of salary + $7mil. That could potentially be $57 mil+ for one year.
That difference almost disappears if he gets another max contract after signing a 4 year deal elsewhere assuming the cap goes up.

 

bosox79

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And out of the AB/Smart/Rozier group, the guard I'd want to trade the least is Rozier. He seems like he could eventually develop into a combo of Smart and AB. He should be a better 3 point shooter than Marcus, he's a better playmaker and ball handler than AB. He provides length and athleticism. Rozier just seems like he can provide 80% of what Marcus does and 80% of what Bradley does and if roster spots/salary cap are an issue, he's a great fit.

It's probably unfair of me to think Rozier has the most upside of the 3 when Marcus Smart is only 11 days older but that's how I feel. He's inconsistent but he seems like a guy who could put up a similar line to Marcus Smart but on better shooting and less defensive versatility.
 

bosox79

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That difference almost disappears if he gets another max contract after signing a 4 year deal elsewhere assuming the cap goes up.

That is max in Utah vs some other team. Not Supermax in Utah vs max in Utah or max from some other team. Now that he didn't make All NBA, I agree there's no real incentive to stay in Utah but the supermax definitely makes a difference. With the graph the person posted above, Hayward would have already made $7 mil more while playing one year less. Add in another $52mil+ on top of that and it's $59 mil over one season.
 

bosox79

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But since he didn't qualify for Super Max...
Yeah, I was referring to the person who quoted the Ryan Bernardoni article where he says the supermax didn't make much of a difference. It makes a huge difference. Supermax = Utah. Regular Max = ??? Boston is definitely in play.