Having some fun with play money

maxotaur

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OttoC said:
 
Maybe you should learn how to read. A signed Lester would have brought back a good return this winter if they decided that was the only way to rebuild. That does not say that I wanted them to trade him in the off-season.
What else would that mean? If it means something else perhaps you need to state it differently as I'm scratching my head too.
 

Mighty Joe Young

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O Captain! My Captain! said:
I posted in the Castillo thread that there's an outfield logjam. Who do you think makes up the 2015 outfield. In rough order of likelihood of playing next year
 
MLB
Cespedes (LF)
Castillo (CF)
Victorino (RF)
Holt (supersub)
Craig (1b/LF, pinch hitter)
JBJ (4th OF)
 
AAA
Betts
Nava
Hassan, Brentz, etc
 
is the way I see it. JBJ makes the roster because he provides superior defense at any OF position while Betts makes more sense if you expect to see his bat every day. Holt's spot opens up for someone like Betts if Holt starts in the IF either at 3rd or SS. Craig is really only viable at LF but is Ortiz/Napoli health insurance and first bat off the bench. Nava is totally blocked by Cespedes but makes the most sense if you want both JBJ and Betts to get regular ABs at AAA. Victorino's health worries are the most likely way that someone get the opportunity to displace one of Cespedes/Castilo/Victorino IMO, unless Castillo is absolutely not a CF.
 
Making JBJ a 4th OF basically means you have given up on him as a regular .. if he's ever going to hit he has to play everyday - somewhere - whether that's in Boston or Pawtucket.
 
That may very well be his ultimate role - but I don't think that story has been written yet.
 

OttoC

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Dec 2, 2003
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maxotaur said:
What else would that mean? If it means something else perhaps you need to state it differently as I'm scratching my head too.
 
IF is a very short word, two letters, and perhaps you missed it. In case you did not, it is conditional and means in the event that. The sentence does not say If I decided; it says if they decided.
 
If (there is that word again) you are having trouble comprehending this, then perhaps you should find a less demanding pastime than reading...say. imitating a rock.
 

Toe Nash

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OttoC said:
 
IF is a very short word, two letters, and perhaps you missed it. In case you did not, it is conditional and means in the event that. The sentence does not say If I decided; it says if they decided.
 
If (there is that word again) you are having trouble comprehending this, then perhaps you should find a less demanding pastime than reading...say. imitating a rock.
We understand your sentence but it doesn't make sense for a few reasons. Primary among these is that teams don't usually sign a guy for 6 years and turn around and trade him 8 months later, because when they make that commitment they have decided it is a good thing to do and circumstances don't usually change that fast. But sure, if they're flexible and see the changing tides, it's not out of the realm of possibility. Except:
 
-If they had signed him in spring, he'd likely have taken a discount. Trading him would be bad PR and probably bad player-relations (see Arroyo). It would negatively impact any future contracts they wanted to sign.
-If they signed him closer to market value, he would have less value in a deal. Hamels may be a good case here -- he has value because other salaries have inflated and he only has 4 years left, but at the time the deal wasn't a bargain. Your market would be the few teams who would have chased him in the offseason had he been an FA, so LAD, NYY, maybe SEA, and you're hoping they will give up prospects or players plus agree to take on his deal?
-If he had signed an extension, he'd be getting 10/5 rights right around the trading deadline in 2016. So after that point, there's another hurdle.
 

MakMan44

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kwa1430 said:
I think it's a stretch, for the same reasons that acquiring Stanton has become a stretch. 
 

ivanvamp

captain obvious
Jul 18, 2005
6,104
Offseason/2015
 
Napoli gets traded for prospects.  Craig plays 1b.
Sox sign Shields (not Lester…bummer).  They also sign another semi-decent veteran RH starter, as they are not comfortable with going with Clay and the kids.
Koji re-signs for another year.
Cespedes, Castillo, and Victorino play the OF.
Betts becomes super sub, playing regularly, but at different positions every day.
JBJ begins the year in AAA, but moves up to the majors at the trade deadline.
 
Lineup:  
CF Castillo
RF Victorino
2b Pedroia
DH Ortiz
LF Cespedes
1b Craig
SS Bogaerts
3b Middlebrooks 
C Vazquez
 
Rotation:  Shields, Veteran, Buchholz, RDLR, and one of the other kids - my guess at this point is Ranaudo
 
Sox muddle along at around .500 for the first half of the year.  Miami struggles.  They realize that they need to move Stanton, because they simply will not pay what he's worth (upwards of an 8/240 contract).  So they decide to move him.  The Sox end up making one of the biggest trades in recent memory:  RDLR, Bogaerts, Barnes, Vazquez, and a fifth guy, who is not an A prospect.
 
The Sox trade for a veteran catcher to help split the catching duties, call up Escobar to replace RDLR.  Betts moves to SS full-time.  Victorino becomes the fourth OF. JBJ gets called up.
 
Lineup for rest of 2015:
 
CF Castillo
2b Pedroia
DH Ortiz
LF Stanton
RF Cespedes
1b Craig
SS Betts
3b Middlebrooks
C some veteran
 
Rotation:  Shields, Veteran, Buchholz, Ranaudo, Escobar
 
The team finishes in the hunt for the playoffs, but falls just short.  Then in the offseason, they re-sign Ortiz to one more contract.  Cecchini takes over for Middlebrooks, who is traded.  Swihart becomes the regular catcher.  Victorino is gone.  JBJ becomes the fourth outfielder. Cespedes is re-signed.  Buchholz' option is taken by the team following a really good 2015 campaign (it is an odd year, after all).  Owens makes the leap and instantly becomes a solid MLB pitcher.  Ranaudo and Escobar solidify their spots in the rotation.
 
2016 Lineup:
 
CF Castillo
2b Pedroia
DH Ortiz
LF Stanton
RF Cespedes
1b Craig
SS Betts
C Swihart
3b Cecchini
 
The Sox lead the league in runs scored by a healthy margin.  Stanton wins MVP.  Cespedes hits 30+ homers, as does Ortiz, who is rejuvenated with this group.  Castillo is a stud.  Betts is an even bigger stud and ends up being a better player than Bogaerts.  Swihart struggles early, but they stay with him and he ends up being one of the better offensive catchers in baseball.  Cecchini, with no pressure in the #9 spot, quietly puts up a .390 obp and scores nearly 100 runs from the 9 hole.  
 
Rotation:  Shields, Owens, Buchholz, Ranaudo, Escobar
 
The rotation ends up being solid, not great.  Shields is good, Owens has a special rookie season.  Buchholz is even-year Clay (not very good).  Ranaudo emerges as a very good MLB SP.  Escobar is a little disappointing.  But over, a pretty solid group.  The bullpen is spectacular.  Workman, Taz, Hembree (who becomes a dominant closer), Brian Johnson (who will become a fixture in the rotation in 2017) headline a pen full of power arms.  
 
The Sox win the division and the American League.  
 

OttoC

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Papelbon's Poutine said:
...
So, you think someone in the Red Sox front office would have even proposed, let alone entertained, the completely fucking moronic idea of trading Lester had they resigned him?
...
 
So you think that A signed Lester would have brought back a good return this winter is not true? What I wrote did not say that the Red Sox would or should trade Lester if they signed him. It simply suggested that was a route they could follow if they decided to rebuild. And if, as you wrote, the issue i took with your post wasn't whether or not you would have desired them to do it, why did you imply that it was: So you wanted them to resign Lester before this season and then trade him in the offseason? -30-
 

OttoC

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Papelbon's Poutine said:
...
But please, continue to double down. 
 
Double down? Since you continue to impute things to me that I did not say, I think I prefer the on-off switch.
 

Niastri

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O Captain! My Captain! said:
I posted in the Castillo thread that there's an outfield logjam. Who do you think makes up the 2015 outfield. In rough order of likelihood of playing next year
 
MLB
Cespedes (LF)
Castillo (CF)
Victorino (RF)
Holt (supersub)
Craig (1b/LF, pinch hitter)
JBJ (4th OF)
 
AAA
Betts
Nava
Hassan, Brentz, etc
 
is the way I see it. JBJ makes the roster because he provides superior defense at any OF position while Betts makes more sense if you expect to see his bat every day. Holt's spot opens up for someone like Betts if Holt starts in the IF either at 3rd or SS. Craig is really only viable at LF but is Ortiz/Napoli health insurance and first bat off the bench. Nava is totally blocked by Cespedes but makes the most sense if you want both JBJ and Betts to get regular ABs at AAA. Victorino's health worries are the most likely way that someone get the opportunity to displace one of Cespedes/Castilo/Victorino IMO, unless Castillo is absolutely not a CF.
I am doubtful Victorino ever plays much for the Sox again.

The Sox recent behavior with the outfield makes me think they feel much the same. Castillo makes way more sense if you see it from a prism of Victorino as at best a fourth OF and most likely starting next season on the 60 day Dl, never to return.
 

O Captain! My Captain!

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Niastri said:
I am doubtful Victorino ever plays much for the Sox again.

The Sox recent behavior with the outfield makes me think they feel much the same. Castillo makes way more sense if you see it from a prism of Victorino as at best a fourth OF and most likely starting next season on the 60 day Dl, never to return.
 
Well, it makes more sense if you have doubts about any of the outfielders. If you think JBJ is an absolute lost cause, or think Mookie is the 3b of the future and isn't an option in the outfield, or that Cespedes is going to get hit by a bus, signing another talented outfielder helps. Victorino actually is the player who has the least relevance here since he's only around for another year.
 

koufax37

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Curll said:
Let's make some assumptions:
 
1) The Red Sox are going for a championship in 2015
 
2) The Red Sox finish 10th or worse overall this season
 
3) The Red Sox budget is beyond $194M, exceeding the tax threshold easily
 
 
The Red Sox could, in theory:
 
  • Sign Jon Lester to a 6/$144M deal
  • Sign Max Scherzer to a 6/$144M deal
  • Extend Cespedes with a 4/$85M deal
  • Maintain a top 10 pick, protected
  • Trade SP prospects/extras for needs/Cliff Lee/Tulo
 
I understand the highly speculative nature of this, but considering the flexibility of a protected top 10 pick and 2nd highest revenue stream in the MLB, the Red Sox could be in an enviable position this off-season with a lot of money to spend, a lot of MLB-ready prospects to trade, and nothing substantial to lose.
 
I'm excited to get Lester back and to add more pitching, but two six year deals for starting pitchers would seem very unlike our front office and present some serious risk taking for our front office that I think is unlikely and undesirable.
 
But it is intriguing that we have some serious flexibility.  I think if we go big on Lester, the rest of our rotation can be filled with #4 type free agents and possibly a trade for someone under team control.
 
I'm also curious what James Shields will be looking for in terms of years.  I wouldn't mind our typical more dollars fewer years to him as a #2, but have a feeling the market will overpay for his older years, where his insane durability and high workload might start to catch up to him.  I would be very interested in his 33 and 34 year old seasons, and take some risk on his 35 year old season, but would be more cautious about his 36 and 37 year old seasons than I expect some other team out there will be.
 
Lester and trade outfielder(s) for a #2 starter sounds like a good start to things, and that will still leave us with a lot of financial and trade resources to improve further.
 

maxotaur

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Oct 31, 2013
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OttoC said:
 
IF is a very short word, two letters, and perhaps you missed it. In case you did not, it is conditional and means in the event that. The sentence does not say If I decided; it says if they decided.
 
If (there is that word again) you are having trouble comprehending this, then perhaps you should find a less demanding pastime than reading...say. imitating a rock.
IF

your post only made sense. Then you could spend your time in other ways then insulting everyone for your own incompetence.
 

Mighty Joe Young

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maxotaur said:
Oh my. OttoC just just sent me a nice private note. I'll share it:
"that means that you won't need to worry about addressing any more comments to you since I won't be reading them. Although, my guess is you are too fucking stupid to understand that either".
Always nice to be thought of, but, are you mad bro?
There's a reason why people send private PMs .. Making them public probably confirms Otto's opinion
 

maxotaur

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BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
There's a reason why people send private PMs .. Making them public probably confirms Otto's opinion
Just felt it was kinda rude to have put up with such bs and thought other people might agree. However I will respect the sanctity of the pm from here on. God forbid.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

oppresses WARmongers
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maxotaur said:
Just felt it was kinda rude to have put up with such bs and thought other people might agree. However I will respect the sanctity of the pm from here on. God forbid.
 
Not "God forbid." You brought it here to get some virtual hand pounds. It was childish and brings down the level of discourse on the main board significantly. Get rid of it and don't waste everyone else's time with it again.
 

maxotaur

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Snodgrass'Muff said:
 
Not "God forbid." You brought it here to get some virtual hand pounds. It was childish and brings down the level of discourse on the main board significantly. Get rid of it and don't waste everyone else's time with it again.
You're right. It was self - centered of me. Apologies.
 

pokey_reese

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So...
 
I for one would love to see the team make a run at Brandon McCarthy in the off season.  I think that he is just un-sexy enough to only command a moderate deal, maybe something in the 3-year range that this FO loves so much, but has good enough peripherals to be a solid #2/3 pitcher that this rotation needs, and should be healthy enough to count on.
 
Probably going to be one of the better "compromise" guys available this winter, in terms of stuff and salary expectations, assuming that he hasn't fallen in love with the Yankees over the last few weeks.
 

67WasBest

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Mar 17, 2004
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2015 team:
 
Lester, Sale, Shields, Buchholz, Kelly
Castillo CF, Pedroia 2B, Ortiz DH, Cespedes LF, Heyward RF, Napoli 1B, Martin C, Bogaerts SS, Headley 3B, with Betts, Holt, Craig, Nava and Ross
Koji, Miller, Tazawa, Mujica, Workman, Layne
 
Owens, Vazquez, Webster, Coyle for Sale
Victorino, Margot, Renaudo for Heyward
 
One year overspend of a portion of the revenue sharing windfall to set up the next great Red Sox team.  After the season they have $75M in choices on Cespedes, Heyward, Napoli, Headley, Martin, Buchholz, Koji, Mujica.  It sets up:
 
Outfield - A year to see what Cespedes and Heyward can be, and to decide to retain both, one, or none, if Bradley has shown ready by year end.
Infield - Headley brings the switch hitting lefty we need to balance the offense, and buys another year to see if WMB or Cecchini can be the guy.  Betts and Holt offer RH and LH options should he struggle from either side.  Marrero is groomed to be the next super utility guy
Starting Pitching is set through 2016 if they exercise Buchholz option.  Many kids remain (RDLR, Barnes, Johnson, Rodriguez, Escobar) in extended schooling at AAA.  Some may enter the pen, like RDLR being groomed as a future closer.
Catching - Martin is in for one year overpay and chance at a ring.  Swihart takes over in 2016.
 
Still plenty left over to make a Stanton deal when the time arrives.
 

67WasBest

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Lester ($25M), Sale ($6M), Shields ($19M), Buchholz (7.65M), Kelly ($3M) ($60.65M total for starters)
Castillo CF ($10.15M), Pedroia 2B ($13.65M), Ortiz DH ($16M), Cespedes LF ($10.25M), Heyward RF ($12M) , Napoli 1B ($16M), Martin C ($12M), Bogaerts SS ($0.65M), Headley 3B ($9M), with Betts ($0.55), Holt ($0.67), Craig ($6.2M), Nava ($1.5M) and Ross ($2.5M) ($111.75M total for position players)
Koji ($8.5M), Miller ($5.5M), Tazawa ($2.75M), Mujica ($4.75M), Workman ($0.67M), Layne ($0.55M) ($22.72M for bullpen)
Add in $8M for the rest of the 40 man and $15M for benefits and the total is $217.25, against a payroll line of $189M, so the penalty would be 17.5% of $28.25M or $4.94M for a grand total of $222.18M.  Again, this would be a one year overspend of the revenue sharing windfall of 2014.  They would immediately return to limit spending in 2016.