Have We Seen The Last of Daniel Nava?

Have we seen the last of Daniel Nava for 2014?


  • Total voters
    253

rembrat

Well-Known Member
Bronze Supporter
SoSH Member
May 26, 2006
36,059
I'm sorry but a poll can not address every possible outcome, asshats.
 

mauidano

Mai Tais for everyone!
SoSH Member
Aug 21, 2006
27,768
Maui
Please God, nooooooooo!  I love Daniel Nava.  He is everyman.  Grady makes me more nervous, Shane is heartbeat away from the DL and he's not even off it yet.  Carp, JBJ, no All-Star's there either.  Not even Gomes should be immune from speculation.  I know that's sacrilegious talk but.....
 

rembrat

Well-Known Member
Bronze Supporter
SoSH Member
May 26, 2006
36,059
mauidano said:
Please God, nooooooooo!  I love Daniel Nava.  He is everyman.  Grady makes me more nervous, Shane is heartbeat away from the DL and he's not even off it yet.  Carp, JBJ, no All-Star's there either.  Not even Gomes should be immune from speculation.  I know that's sacrilegious talk but.....
 
Gomes is safe because he is literally the only legit LHP masher the team has. I'm obviously not including Napoli who mashes everyone. But, fine, I will edit the poll.
 
Oct 17, 2013
451
Cleveland, OH
I'd vote for "Someone" gets hurt and he gets another chance. Grady doesn't suck and I believe Shane will be fine once back. Whether or not he is here next year. I couldn't tell you... But it wouldn't let me vote for one question and not the other, so...
 

topps148

Member
SoSH Member
The clock is ticking on Sizemore. After 200 PA (he's at 67 now), he costs 10K/PA (paid at each 25 PA step). If his production and defense don't improve, that's not a very good ROI. Currently he "leads" Nava in bWAR, -0.3 to -0.4, and his main tangible advantage over DN is that he can (sort of) play CF.

Edit: Sizemore's value as a CF option should drop a bit when Shane comes back.
 

Rasputin

Will outlive SeanBerry
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 4, 2001
29,156
Not here
rembrat said:
I'm sorry but a poll can not address every possible outcome, asshats.
You could do it easily by just saying yes/no/I don't know rather than concocting scenarios.

The way the poll is now, it assumes that Nava gets called up if anyone gets hurt but that isn't necessarily the case.

Duck it, I'm going t go get on my laptop to finish this.
 

rembrat

Well-Known Member
Bronze Supporter
SoSH Member
May 26, 2006
36,059
I'm sorry that the poll sucks and isn't in census format. I intended this to be a relaxed thread, hence the "concocting scenarios", where you could shoot from your hip about Nava's future or lament about his demotion. 
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2007
18,200
The wrong side of the bridge....
Cowboys Idiots N Beards said:
I'd vote for "Someone" gets hurt and he gets another chance. Grady doesn't suck and I believe Shane will be fine once back. Whether or not he is here next year. I couldn't tell you... But it wouldn't let me vote for one question and not the other, so...
 
In that case, I hope he shows up soon, because this impostor who has been occupying his locker for the past three weeks sure does suck.
 

Lose Remerswaal

Leaves after the 8th inning
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
rembrat said:
I'm sorry that the poll sucks and isn't in census format. I intended this to be a relaxed thread, hence the "concocting scenarios", where you could shoot from your hip about Nava's future or lament about his demotion. 
 
You *could* fix it, you know. Right now it's unanswerable intelligently.  Game thready, even
 
Sep 13, 2006
689
I sincerely doubt that we've seen the last of Daniel Nava.  I think it's far more likely that, before long, Nava will be back on the Sox 25 man roster and there will be a 15 page thread titled "Have We Seen The Last of Grady Sizemore?"   
 

Rasputin

Will outlive SeanBerry
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 4, 2001
29,156
Not here
wolfe_boston said:
Does that mean his contract will terminate and he could sign with someone else?
 
No. He has, I think, three days to report.
 
He's probably upset and is taking a day to collect himself. It's no big deal.
 

dbn

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 10, 2007
7,779
La Mancha.
Like many here, I'm a big fan of Nava.  I hope and expect him to be back contributing to the Red Sox soon, both for his sake and that of the team's success. The likelihood of that happening depend somewhat on the reason for his poor start. I can think of, in order from least to most worrisome:
 
Ia) SSS statistical aberration.
Ib) SSS systematic abberation (e.g.: he's faced pitchers that happen to be difficult for him, he hasn't been sleeping well lately, he has a cold, etc.).
II) good old fashioned slump.
III) lingering minor injury.
IV) pitchers have figured him out.
 
(Ia) does not seem to be the case as, to my untrained eyes, he's looked bad at the plate. Similarly, I don't think it's (IV) as he appears to be taking bad swings wherever the pitches are thrown. Though we can't know about (Ib) or (III) without he or the club informing us, there are no signs of either. Thus, I speculate it is simply a slump. AAA pitching will hopefully be the cure he needs.
 
I'd be great if anyone with scouting experience and/or is good with the swing/contact data could comment.
 

Sampo Gida

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 7, 2010
5,038
18% LD rate should have got him better than a 167 BABIP.  Bit of bad luck.  Not that he was swinging the bat well, but he was not as awful as his numbers suggest, even if the results were.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
10,777
Maine
Rasputin said:
 
No. He has, I think, three days to report.
 
He's probably upset and is taking a day to collect himself. It's no big deal.
 
I was thinking it's more likely that he doesn't want to report until he's cleared OAW. I'm not sure how long that process takes, but it has to be more than 24 hours.  Why take the trip to Pawtucket if there's a chance he may have to go right back to Fenway or board a plane to some other big league city?
 

trekfan55

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 29, 2004
7,962
Panama
I'm pretty sure that if another team picks him up the Sox will pull him back and make a countermove (maybe send Bradley down, or maybe DL someone).
 
I am pretty sure we have nit seen the last of him but I understand that he didn't report to the PawSox right away.
 

wolfe_boston

Commissioner of Calvinball
Mar 16, 2014
110
I think that the bottom line is that if he is not part of the LF platoon he is not going to get much playing time as a LH 4th outfielder. He would better off somewhere else where he could at least be the LH half of a platoon. It would be unfair to him for the Sox to keep him as insurance against injuries.
 

Plympton91

bubble burster
SoSH Member
Oct 19, 2008
11,860
Dan to Theo to Ben said:
What is wrong with you?
 
Huh?
 
I'm simply listing all the players for whom Daniel Nava would be the logical replacement if they went on the DL.  Did I miss where Papi was recently dipped into the Styx and is now guaranteed not to pull a hamstring?
 

Rasputin

Will outlive SeanBerry
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 4, 2001
29,156
Not here
Here's the thing.
 
All that's needed for this to be the last time we see Daniel Nava is for Alex Hassan or Bryce Brentz to be a better option when there's a need. Maybe Nava has a bad hammy. Maybe Brentz or Hassan are on a tear. Maybe the Sox just need someone who can hit lefties.
 
And who is to say that come later in the season, Middlebrooks has done well enough, and the left field mishmash has done poorly enough, that the Sox give Cecchini some time in left in Pawtucket, and that when they need someone in August, it's Cecchini who gets the call.
 

SouthernBoSox

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2005
10,812
Rasputin said:
Here's the thing.
 
All that's needed for this to be the last time we see Daniel Nava is for Alex Hassan or Bryce Brentz to be a better option when there's a need. Maybe Nava has a bad hammy. Maybe Brentz or Hassan are on a tear. Maybe the Sox just need someone who can hit lefties.
 
And who is to say that come later in the season, Middlebrooks has done well enough, and the left field mishmash has done poorly enough, that the Sox give Cecchini some time in left in Pawtucket, and that when they need someone in August, it's Cecchini who gets the call.
So all that has to happen is...

...Nava gets hurt
Gomes gets hurt
Middlebrooks rakes
Cecchini gets moved to left...


We will be seeing Nava again.
 

Plympton91

bubble burster
SoSH Member
Oct 19, 2008
11,860
Rasputin said:
Here's the thing.
 
All that's needed for this to be the last time we see Daniel Nava is for Alex Hassan or Bryce Brentz to be a better option when there's a need. Maybe Nava has a bad hammy. Maybe Brentz or Hassan are on a tear. Maybe the Sox just need someone who can hit lefties.
 
And who is to say that come later in the season, Middlebrooks has done well enough, and the left field mishmash has done poorly enough, that the Sox give Cecchini some time in left in Pawtucket, and that when they need someone in August, it's Cecchini who gets the call.
 
In those cases we'd see Daniel Nava again when he comes through with a team that needs a minimum salary leftfielder with an 800 OPS.  The Orioles, the Rays, the A's; any team with a modicum of SABR knowledge will be all over it.
 

someoneanywhere

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Look, he'll be back. And from my vantage point this is not really a surprising development. He's been a fringe-guy his whole career -- shoot, the poster-boy for that -- and he had real, sustained success, to say nothing of a WS ring, for the first time last year Naturally the pressure to perform is greater because the fear of failure is greater in the twilight time between getting to the bigs and establishing yourself in the bigs. Once he gets back to being him, to giving those great ABs we're so used to seeing, he'll be all right. 
 
Ras has it right upthread. His decision to sit out a night is not a big deal. 
 

Rasputin

Will outlive SeanBerry
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 4, 2001
29,156
Not here
SouthernBoSox said:
So all that has to happen is...

...Nava gets hurt
Gomes gets hurt
Middlebrooks rakes
Cecchini gets moved to left...


We will be seeing Nava again.
 
I'm trying to respond to this without being rude but I am finding it difficult because you can't get that out of what I said. I gave you a bottom line statement and several possibilities and you're trying to suggest that all of them need to happen and that's just ridiculous.
 
All that needs to happen for us not to see Nava again is for there to be a better option when the need arises.
 
 
 
Plympton91 said:
In those cases we'd see Daniel Nava again when he comes through with a team that needs a minimum salary leftfielder with an 800 OPS.  The Orioles, the Rays, the A's; any team with a modicum of SABR knowledge will be all over it.
 
Why on Earth would any team be confident that Daniel Nava is a minimum salary left fielder with an 800 OPS? He had an 800 OPS one time, when he was thirty, with a BABIP of .350. Previously, the best thing that could be said about him is that he had an OPS of almost 800 against right handed pitchers in a third of a season.
 
And, oh, by the way, he's past the point where anyone could reasonably think he would get better and to the point where everyone would have to conclude that he is probably going to get worse.
 

Plympton91

bubble burster
SoSH Member
Oct 19, 2008
11,860
Rasputin said:
I'm trying to respond to this without being rude but I am finding it difficult because you can't get that out of what I said. I gave you a bottom line statement and several possibilities and you're trying to suggest that all of them need to happen and that's just ridiculous.
 
All that needs to happen for us not to see Nava again is for there to be a better option when the need arises.
 
 
 
 
Why on Earth would any team be confident that Daniel Nava is a minimum salary left fielder with an 800 OPS? He had an 800 OPS one time, when he was thirty, with a BABIP of .350. Previously, the best thing that could be said about him is that he had an OPS of almost 800 against right handed pitchers in a third of a season.
 
And, oh, by the way, he's past the point where anyone could reasonably think he would get better and to the point where everyone would have to conclude that he is probably going to get worse.
Several people have gone through the trouble of making detailed posts about why your superficial glance at Nava's 2010 and 2012 major league numbers is misleading, but you've ignored them. I'm not going to bother going through it again.

BTW, what's a reasonable expectation for the performance of an outfielder who last had an 800 OPS in 2007, has an OPS below 650 in his last 300 major league plate appearances, and missed the past 2-1\2 seasons with major, chronic leg injuries?
 

Rasputin

Will outlive SeanBerry
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 4, 2001
29,156
Not here
Plympton91 said:
BTW, what's a reasonable expectation for the performance of an outfielder who last had an 800 OPS in 2007, has an OPS below 650 in his last 300 major league plate appearances, and missed the past 2-1\2 seasons with major, chronic leg injuries?
 
I'm not sure there is one. Do you have any particular reason to suspect that the upside of a guy with that injury history who was once one of the best players in the game is lower than that of a guy who didn't even make the majors until he was 27 and didn't play a full season until he was 30?
 
I mean, christ, they're both in their age 31 seasons Nava has 300 games played and Sizemore has 900.
 
Options aside, I'm gonna give the guy who has shown the most ability over the course of his career more rope and I can't imagine why anyone would do otherwise.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 23, 2001
6,930
Rasputin said:
Options aside, I'm gonna give the guy who has shown the most ability over the course of his career more rope and I can't imagine why anyone would do otherwise.
Because there's no precedent in baseball history of a playing missing most of 4 seasons of play due to catastrophic injury and then returning to form?
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2007
18,200
The wrong side of the bridge....
Rasputin said:
 
I'm not sure there is one. Do you have any particular reason to suspect that the upside of a guy with that injury history who was once one of the best players in the game is lower than that of a guy who didn't even make the majors until he was 27 and didn't play a full season until he was 30?
 
I mean, christ, they're both in their age 31 seasons Nava has 300 games played and Sizemore has 900.
 
Options aside, I'm gonna give the guy who has shown the most ability over the course of his career more rope and I can't imagine why anyone would do otherwise.
 
I disagree because I think that given their histories, Sizemore's performance so far is much more likely to represent who he really is in 2014 than Nava's. I'm a Nava skeptic relative to a lot of people around here--I think he hit over his head last year, his 2012 performance is probably closer to his true talent level, and the relevant question is whether he'll decline to irrelevance gradually or precipitously--but still, if I had to gamble on one of the two being a significant contributor to a Sox stretch drive this year, I'd bet on Nava.
 

Toe Nash

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 28, 2005
4,470
02130
As I noted in the other thread, many lots of things mostly or entirely out of Nava's control have gone against him during his career. Here we see how Nava being optioned becomes another point against him when, based on performance this year and last, he deserves to be demoted no more than Sizemore. His having an option is a function of him not being called to the majors until pretty late, which is a function of starting off in indie leagues, which eventually goes back to him not being able to afford college and, further back, having a very late growth spurt during puberty.
 
If he comes back and plays normally, next offseason he'll be written off because "he got sent to the minors last year" just as "he didn't even make the majors until he was 27!" is a point here. 
 
Nava has real weaknesses; his defense and his hitting against LHP chief among them. And he's no longer young so his skills can be expected to decline somewhat. I don't think anyone expects a repeat of last year. But his career path is not normal, and it needs to be evaluated with that in mind. He has produced at every level and done enough to get more rope than 75 PAs except be big. You'd think a team and fanbase with Dustin Pedroia would understand this.
 

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
9,543
Miami (oh, Miami!)
Toe Nash said:
As I noted in the other thread, many lots of things mostly or entirely out of Nava's control have gone against him during his career. Here we see how Nava being optioned becomes another point against him when, based on performance this year and last, he deserves to be demoted no more than Sizemore. His having an option is a function of him not being called to the majors until pretty late, which is a function of starting off in indie leagues, which eventually goes back to him not being able to afford college and, further back, having a very late growth spurt during puberty.
 
If he comes back and plays normally, next offseason he'll be written off because "he got sent to the minors last year" just as "he didn't even make the majors until he was 27!" is a point here. 
 
Nava has real weaknesses; his defense and his hitting against LHP chief among them. And he's no longer young so his skills can be expected to decline somewhat. I don't think anyone expects a repeat of last year. But his career path is not normal, and it needs to be evaluated with that in mind. He has produced at every level and done enough to get more rope than 75 PAs except be big. You'd think a team and fanbase with Dustin Pedroia would understand this.
 
While I agree with almost everything you're saying (I'm pro Nava), the sad fact is he's not hitting his weight and the team isn't doing well.  So it's not like they can carry him while he works it out.  Since he has an option, it makes sense to send him down.  
 
The point is to win games at the ML level, not to have a faith showing hug-fest at the expense of winning.  That said, I hope he figures it out and comes back quickly.  We need someone to be the 2013 Nava. 
 

Drek717

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 23, 2003
2,536
Nava has exceptional offensive skills against RHP when he isn't pressing and facing LHP frequently enough to create additional undue pressure on him.  I'd imagine he'll take a few weeks in Pawtucket to get his shit back in order, the team will have a need not too long after, and Nava will be back up and then will "surprise" everyone when the OBP machine makes a reappearance when allowed to settle in to a consistent role as the heavy side of a LF platoon.