I did think "really, BP?"... and probably should have pursued that thought further.
Hanley DFA'd (5/25 Update)
- Thread starter Pozo the Clown
- Start date
First week into the season, and Hanley has 24 PAs. As of now, he is on track to surpass 497 by season's end. But, he's also hitting; 7 knocks with 2 doubles and a homer. Obviously very SSS against mediocre pitching.
While it's in the team's best interest if the option doesn't vest, but if Hanley hits like 2016 Hanley, they'll keep him on the field
While it's in the team's best interest if the option doesn't vest, but if Hanley hits like 2016 Hanley, they'll keep him on the field
Actually, it’s in the team’s best interest if Hanley’s option DOES vest because his play merits that.
If he hits like it’s 2008, maybe. Otherwise no.
We’re gonna need $15-20 million to re-sign/replace Kimbrel and Kelly (plus other bullpen upgrades). And unless we see a breakout year from Brian Johnson, another large sum to do the same with Pomeranz. We’ll also need an additional $20 or so million more than we’re paying now for arbitration figures.
It’s too early to speculate scenarios, but given our interest and payroll, Hanley’s option isn’t a good one. Neil Walker, a 32-year-old with the same offensive projection as Hanley and far more defensive value, signed for 1-year/$5 million.
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This past off-season was a buyer's market to an absurd degree, though. You can't assume that it will be the same next year. The cost per WAR in free agency was something like $10 million in 2016-2017.
If he hits and the option vests, there is always the scenario of trading him. It shouldn't be too hard to move a guy on a 1 year deal coming off a season similar to 2016. if he hits like 2008 or 2013, that scenario could return some decent value too.
So, is there anyone here who would rather Hanley be sat instead of reaching his 497 PA? Which is to say, are there any posters who would prefer he not play well this year so the Sox don't have to pay him next year?
Asking because while I am actually quite bullish on the offense this year notwithstanding their somewhat sluggish start, I think this team still needs Hanley's bat to really compete.
Asking because while I am actually quite bullish on the offense this year notwithstanding their somewhat sluggish start, I think this team still needs Hanley's bat to really compete.
Except it isn't. You're leaving out the third and most desirable possibility: that he plays well enough to contribute usefully to a championship team, but not to the point where he forces Moreland to a backup rather than time-share role.
Well, yes and no. Another option is that he plays well enough that they can trade him at the deadline for something else and Moreland slides into a full-time role at first. Or maybe, as you say, he plays enough of a platoon role that he doesn't get to 497.
But if he's doing Hanley things (i.e., 2016 Hanley things), that's not something you want or perhaps can afford to trade away or sit. Not to go all Cafardo on this thread, but when this dude is right, there's something infectious about his success.
But if he's doing Hanley things (i.e., 2016 Hanley things), that's not something you want or perhaps can afford to trade away or sit. Not to go all Cafardo on this thread, but when this dude is right, there's something infectious about his success.
Isn't the ideal scenario that he hits well all year but ends at 475 PAs or thereabouts due to some minor injury? Not that I wish injury on anyone but they're part of the game. That way, he maxes out his value to the team this year, is replaced at times by necessity, doesn't feel disgruntled about the extra year, and is someone the team could bring back next year at a reasonable rate, or let walk if he plays himself into another high $$ contract?
We're about 250 at bats before needing to take a hard look at this one.
If good Hanley equals a playoff spot, then of course we all want and need good Hanley even though his first base contract is still bloated compared to the deals made this off season.
Bad Hanley means he doesn't get the PA.
Meh Hanley through June means we really ought to be trying another option. Alonso and Morrison who were just about freely available were better than Hanley in 2016, so bats are likely to be available again, and possibly without going over the luxury tax. I don't think Moreland is getting the bulk of the playing time the rest of the year, but that's just a guess. He was paid as an expensive part timer and I imagine that will be his role next year too with or without Hanley.
22 million means a shit ton next year so even if he's borderline, I hope they err on the side of potential hurt feelings.
If good Hanley equals a playoff spot, then of course we all want and need good Hanley even though his first base contract is still bloated compared to the deals made this off season.
Bad Hanley means he doesn't get the PA.
Meh Hanley through June means we really ought to be trying another option. Alonso and Morrison who were just about freely available were better than Hanley in 2016, so bats are likely to be available again, and possibly without going over the luxury tax. I don't think Moreland is getting the bulk of the playing time the rest of the year, but that's just a guess. He was paid as an expensive part timer and I imagine that will be his role next year too with or without Hanley.
22 million means a shit ton next year so even if he's borderline, I hope they err on the side of potential hurt feelings.
The present disparity in baseball would almost ensure a trade can’t happen. Anyone interested in the AL is our competition, and barring injury, no team in the NL needs a first baseman, especially at that cost and commitment.
Hanley is awesome and I’d love to see him have a great year. But I’d encourage folks to look at this issue through the lens of next year’s luxury tax room with this CBA. I’m not sure this team could afford both Hanley and Kimbrel factoring arb increases, and Kimbrel would seem much more important.
Handedness aside, how would Moreland's 98 wRC+ last year vice Hanley's 93 (or even projected ZiPS/Steamer of 95 vice 108) kill us?
Hanley's wRC+ for the three years he's been in Boston (including the 2015 annus horribilis) is 106; Moreland's over the same three years is 99. I think that's a pretty accurate reading of the gap between them at this point. Moreland's bat isn't going to kill anybody, but Hanley's is better. Enough better (especially given Moreland's defensive edge) to make Hanley the full-time starter over Moreland, though? I'm skeptical, with or without the vesting clause. If they go that route then I think they really are showcasing Hanley for a possible trade, with the plan of bringing up Travis to be Moreland's platoon partner. Which would make perfect sense, and it gives them time to get a sense of whether Travis is ready for that.
Can you see a team that would trade for him, though? I agree with your take, but every single NL team besides the Rockies has a better player at first base.
Not sure how the guy with a 0.769 OPS and 99 OPS+ last season kills the lineup, but whatever...
Yeah, it's a fair question, although I don't think it really has to be an NL team--just not an AL East team. I think the trade scenario presupposes that somebody gets hurt somewhere.
Far more likely, I think, they'll swap Moreland into the lineup regularly. Not quite a platoon but a timeshare. I think Cora's keeping Hanley in the lineup right now because he's off to a hot start, but I'm not assuming that's going to be a season-long thing.
I want to win the WS this year. If Hanley Ramirez has 496 plate appearances and is a major contributor to the team's WS victory this year then I don't give a crap. Yeah, it'll be a little more difficult to figure out than if he stinks this year and they dump him so they can save his salary for all the great things that might happen next year, sure.
But if he's a contributor to a great team this year, and DD doesn't want him around... I'm sure some other AL team would pick him up.
But if he's a contributor to a great team this year, and DD doesn't want him around... I'm sure some other AL team would pick him up.
If Hanley hits I dont care about 497. If he has a bad month I wont hesistate to bench him more and try to get under,unless he starts hitting again.
Best case is he has a great year and the option vests. He would be tradeable although the team might need to eat half. Could be a package deal with other pieces involved. Or they just trade Moreland and keep him for 2018
Being over the LT next year is probably not the end of the world. It gets reset after 2019 with Pablo and Hanley both off the books unless they sign more expensive guys.
With XB, Sale, Betts, Nunez, JDM, JBJ, Kimbrel, Pomeranz and Porcello all potentially gone before or after the 2019 season, we may well be in rebuilding mode in 2019 and beyond if the farm cant replace some of these guys
Best case is he has a great year and the option vests. He would be tradeable although the team might need to eat half. Could be a package deal with other pieces involved. Or they just trade Moreland and keep him for 2018
Being over the LT next year is probably not the end of the world. It gets reset after 2019 with Pablo and Hanley both off the books unless they sign more expensive guys.
With XB, Sale, Betts, Nunez, JDM, JBJ, Kimbrel, Pomeranz and Porcello all potentially gone before or after the 2019 season, we may well be in rebuilding mode in 2019 and beyond if the farm cant replace some of these guys
I don't think I'd go into the season bound and determined to give Hanley 497 1/2 feet of rope, but unless he goes down like the USS Titanic I wouldn't actively try to play games with his playing time, either.
If he's healthy, I think he'll hit--enough so that benching him to prevent the option vesting would entail significant risk. Hanley has had a great attitude thus far, but he (or a teammate) might be upset about shenanigans like that, and reasonably so. It's also not the best look for future free agents considering Boston.
I guess I'm not sure the Red Sox would gain as much as it would seem, when all factors are considered.
If he's healthy, I think he'll hit--enough so that benching him to prevent the option vesting would entail significant risk. Hanley has had a great attitude thus far, but he (or a teammate) might be upset about shenanigans like that, and reasonably so. It's also not the best look for future free agents considering Boston.
I guess I'm not sure the Red Sox would gain as much as it would seem, when all factors are considered.
Well in those three years half-injured Hanley is good for about 89 - 95 OPS+ (sorry, I am not seeing wRC+), whereas healthy Hanley went for 126, and is at 141 now if you care about minuscule samples. So while 106 is his average, he's not likely going to be that guy; he'll likely either be worse or much, much better. Whereas Moreland looks a lot more like his 99 OPS+ for last year in most seasons, save for one breakout in 2015 in Texas.
When do we start benching JDM in favor of Hanley at DH and Moreland at first? Dudes been a big disappointment so far!
Just to circle back, a page ago in this thread, you had been advocating for Moreland to play over Ramirez based on spring training game stats right? So if I understand your analysis method, when players are hitting well in small sample sizes including 2 very “visible” at bats you like them and when they are not hitting as well, you don’t like them? This is excellent.
I think his contract status is probably the last thing on his mind right now. I'd be worried about doing whatever's necessary for proper treatment and getting right.
Agreed. For all the flack he’s gotten, and how much people are praying he doesn’t vest, the guy has been a team player through and through. I think he gives zero point zero shits about the “few” extra bucks. I love his Instagram; it’s just family, working out, baseball, some nice cars here and there, all smiles always.
Agreed on the team player part. Played left, didn't bitch. Played first, didn't bitch. DH'd after team signed Moreland, didn't bitch. Had to compete for his job this year with his contract on the line, didn't bitch. Yeah, he hasn't quite played completely up to said contract the entire time, but you can't argue the guy's gone with whatever the plan was.
Its a mutual decision. My guess is he wants to play as he has played through injuries before (not very well). My hope is the Red Sox are smart enough to know when he will be ready to play "effectively". Same goes for XB. Sadly based on the teams history I am not optimistic. Cora is the unknown here though. He has a lot of say.
I don't see Cora risking damage to the clubhouse dynamic he has built to deny a player a legitimate shot to meet the incentive (presuming Hanley doesn't miss much time), and if the team keeps doing well I don't see Dombrowski forcing him to.
The plate appearance issue should be self resolving. If Hanley performs, he reaches. If not, than likely not. Regarding this injury, I would suspect that Hanley is back in there as soon as he is ready to go. If he says he feels fine today, and the wrist passes strength tests....he plays. (Well, probably not tonight, but certainly over the weekend. If he can't pass the strength tests, then I would surmise he sits until he can.
This is really what it boils down to. If Hanley is healthy and puts up an 850 OPS or something, then he will hit his PAs and they prob want him back for another year anyway with that production. If he shows further decline and has health issues, then he prob won't hit the PAs.
Has Hanley talked about adding the c-flap to his helmet? His swing looks more quiet this year. I wonder if his helmet not flopping around up there has anything to do with it even psychologically.
I know these aren't the sexiest stats (plus the SSS thing), but Hanley's 15 RBI are tied for the MLB lead and his .362 AVG is 5th best in the majors. It's safe to say he's off to a good start.
There is no doubt he is obviously off to any excellent start. Can’t ask much more.
Through May 6, Hanley's on pace for 634 PAs. He's hitting a decently productive .297/.366/.432, a 117 wRC+.
His ISO, at .136, is the lowest it's been since 2011. On the other hand, his average exit velocity sits at 91.5 MPH, an upgrade over last year's 88.4 MPH.
His ISO, at .136, is the lowest it's been since 2011. On the other hand, his average exit velocity sits at 91.5 MPH, an upgrade over last year's 88.4 MPH.
He is also on pace for what, 18 HRs? I would hope that number would be at least 23 or so by the end of the year, so we will probably see that ISO creep up a bit.
I like the guy well enough but IDK if it will ever be possible for him to justify that contract, and especially that vesting option next year. Which is unfortunate, because that 22 million next year would be much better spent on extending Kimbrel or Pomeranz, and I am starting to think we may not get either of those dude with our cap issues.
I like the guy well enough but IDK if it will ever be possible for him to justify that contract, and especially that vesting option next year. Which is unfortunate, because that 22 million next year would be much better spent on extending Kimbrel or Pomeranz, and I am starting to think we may not get either of those dude with our cap issues.
SSS issues notes, but a relatively powerless 117 wRC+ is in the danger zone where he's not bad enough to justify benching, but not good enough to make me feel great about the option being picked up.
before this post: 53pa, .389babip, .255iso, 175wrc+
since this post: 81pa, .310babip, .056iso, 78wrc+
seems to me that the power is coming - hitting the ball hard but not getting the lift or many hard deep liners getting caught in the OF
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I wonder if we can leverage Hanley's decent start before it completely fizzles (62 wRC+ in May; a drop from 40.3% hard hit rate last month to 25.6%).
With every other asset or path to acquiring talent we have turning to rot, I'd like to see the Sox do something like this.
Colorado gets
Hanley Ramirez
Heath Hembree
Steven Wright
Boston gets
German Marquez
Chris Rusin
Mike Dunn
Carlos Gonzalez
The money is a wash. We shed $23.25M of 2018 salary. We lose four seasons of Hembree and three seasons of Wright.
We assume $16M in 2018 salary and $6M in 2019 salary (Dunn). We get three seasons of Rusin, two of Dunn, and five of Marquez.
Colorado gets Hanley, who has a career 1.040 OPS in Coors, to replace a lost Ian Desmond at first. With the Dodgers sputtering, Pollock hurt, and the Giants on the verge of collapse, they seem to be going for it, particularly when they pumped a ton of money into their bullpen and have LeMahieu out this offseason and Arenado the next. If Hanley hits well for the Rockies, they trigger his player option for Arenado's last season. If they're out of it by August, they cut him. They also get another solid bullpen piece in Hembree and two years of Steven Wright.
The Red Sox shed two of their non-optionable pitchers (one with a potentially distracting domestic abuse charge). They lose nothing in first base production with Moreland, who Sam Travis complements. They save about $16M in 2019 salary, which it looks like they will need. They get a solid lefty reliever in Rusin and a formerly useful and fairly expensive LHP in Mike Dunn who's completely out of favor in the Rockies' bullpen. Cargo is done and I would DFA him immediately, but maybe you play him for a few weeks to see what happens. Marquez is the real prize, and may even approximate a #3 in 2020, when our rotation is EdRod, 35-year-old David Price, and some guys.
If it matters, both teams save face by not being the ones to cut Ramirez and Gonzalez.
With every other asset or path to acquiring talent we have turning to rot, I'd like to see the Sox do something like this.
Colorado gets
Hanley Ramirez
Heath Hembree
Steven Wright
Boston gets
German Marquez
Chris Rusin
Mike Dunn
Carlos Gonzalez
The money is a wash. We shed $23.25M of 2018 salary. We lose four seasons of Hembree and three seasons of Wright.
We assume $16M in 2018 salary and $6M in 2019 salary (Dunn). We get three seasons of Rusin, two of Dunn, and five of Marquez.
Colorado gets Hanley, who has a career 1.040 OPS in Coors, to replace a lost Ian Desmond at first. With the Dodgers sputtering, Pollock hurt, and the Giants on the verge of collapse, they seem to be going for it, particularly when they pumped a ton of money into their bullpen and have LeMahieu out this offseason and Arenado the next. If Hanley hits well for the Rockies, they trigger his player option for Arenado's last season. If they're out of it by August, they cut him. They also get another solid bullpen piece in Hembree and two years of Steven Wright.
The Red Sox shed two of their non-optionable pitchers (one with a potentially distracting domestic abuse charge). They lose nothing in first base production with Moreland, who Sam Travis complements. They save about $16M in 2019 salary, which it looks like they will need. They get a solid lefty reliever in Rusin and a formerly useful and fairly expensive LHP in Mike Dunn who's completely out of favor in the Rockies' bullpen. Cargo is done and I would DFA him immediately, but maybe you play him for a few weeks to see what happens. Marquez is the real prize, and may even approximate a #3 in 2020, when our rotation is EdRod, 35-year-old David Price, and some guys.
If it matters, both teams save face by not being the ones to cut Ramirez and Gonzalez.