Hanley and the $4M Game

[redsoxstiff]

I fail.
I have watched since 1946 or 47... lotsa atrocious crap and a few games definitional, heroic deeds of humankind...IMHO...
At 81...One hellacious ending and vs the yankmes...
In some instances, the expression of positive emotion overrides the 'business as usual' postings. There may a topic i missed concerning last night ...EN tout cas je suis desolee .

 

[mt8thsw9th]

Here Aka the "we don't throw at .260 hitters" game

I always find that funny because ARod was third on his team in OPS and bested Varitek BA and OPS.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

26 HRs now. He has an outside chance to hit 30 HRs for the 2nd time in his career.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

I always find that funny because ARod was third on his team in OPS and bested Varitek BA and OPS.

A-Rod slashed .286/.375/.512/.888

Varitek slashed .296/.390/.492/.872

Pretty similar seasons. At the time of that game, A-Rod was batting .278, but was in a slump of sorts, hitting .218 in his previous 25 games.

 

[mt8thsw9th]

Bested as in at the moment, not on the season. Not sure why he didn't take his mask off, either.

 

[BestGameEvah]

Pete Abraham ‏@PeteAbe 8h8 hours ago
Hanley: “Now is the time for everybody to get in the boat."

I hope we're gonna need a bigger boat!

 

[simplicio]

Pete Abraham ‏@PeteAbe 8h8 hours ago
Hanley: “Now is the time for everybody to get in the boat."

I hope we're gonna need a bigger boat!

#ducksnotsharks

 

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

Great piece on how Hanley has changed his swing and approach:

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2016/09/17/hanley-ramirez-and-his-transformation-hitter/85TMOsUeMsQBuXN9Uv4uAP/story.html

 

[santadevil]

The attitude problem was a Cafardo invention. The reality is that Hanley just wasn't cut out for left field; getting hurt didn't help. Injuries matter, no matter what Cafardo claims.

The attitude problem was a thing that followed him from Florida.

Mainly this play:
http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/0/v8077975/ari-fla-hanley-misplays-ball-removed-from-the-game

I'm very happy that Hanley seems to have matured and is having fun playing the game. As others have mentioned, he's an elite power hitter right now, and this is the best time for it to happen.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

It came out after that play that Hanley was injured and couldn't really run.

 

[SoFloSoxFan]

I don't remember Hanley being injured. He was benched that game and the next, and then returned. I don't think he missed any time. He also took some shots at the manager through the media. His reputation for not giving 100% all the time was well established in Florida.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

He had fouled a ball off his foot the half inning before that play. Later in the AB, he could barely run down the line when he grounded into an inning ending double play. An observant manager might have noted that and taken his star player out of an otherwise meaningless May game before he did himself (and the team) more damage. Obviously a player is going to want to stay in the game, so he's not going to ask out (though if he did, he'd probably have been pilloried for being soft).

 

[BaseballJones]

The 1-5 spots in the lineup are just....awesome.

1. Pedroia - 98 r, 34 2b, 13 hr, .327/.387/.457/.843
2. Bogaerts - 109 r, 32 2b, 20 hr, .299/.356/.451, 88 rbi
3. Ortiz - 73 r, 47 2b, 34 hr, .318/.404/.627/1.031, 116 rbi
4. Betts - 112 r, 40 2b, 30 hr, .314/.355/.538/.893, 106 rbi, 24 sb
5. Ramirez - 77 r, 28 2b, 26 hr, .290/.361/.503/.864, 102 rbi

That's a ferocious group right there.

And on the back end, you've got a catcher hitting .339/.395/.527/.922, an OF with 25 homers and 85 rbi, a 3b that has 16 hr and 71 rbi, and then your last guy is either a rookie hitting .324/.370/.500/.870 or a veteran hitting .281/.366/.528/.824.

That's a pretty nice back four as well.

Anyway, to Hanley....it is pretty obvious that for this year at least, the move to 1b was a win-win all the way around for him and the team. Excellent bounce-back season for HanRam.

 

[SpaceMan37]

I won't belabor the point about single seasons of WAR again (though I will link to the article from the dot com in case you care to dig deeper), but I will point out that playing hurt likely had a huge impact on that 2015 figure.

Obviously. But the only way I used WAR was to say that Hanley's improvement from last year to this year has had a big impact in the team's results. That's not taking anything out of context. He killed us in the field last year and didn't hit. This year he's not killing us in the field and he is hitting. The difference in WAR between the two seasons shows that pretty clearly.

 

[soxhop411]

Jason Mastrodonato ‏@JMastrodonato Sep 16
Hanley Ramirez, with 10 HR and 25 RBI in last 19 G, "I haven’t gotten hot yet."

He was right

 

[soxhop411]

Spanish TV call on the 2nd home run

 

[NJ Fan]

Spanish TV call on the 2nd home run

That's sensational.

 

[moondog80]

He's going to get some down-ballot MVP votes at this point, right?

 

[BaseballJones]

Last 33 games (so not a terribly small sample), HanRam has put up this line:

140 PA, 14 hr, 44 rbi, .373/.429/.770/1.198

EDIT: 44 rbi, not 144. I mean, we all know rbi isn't a good metric, but I think we could all agree that 144 rbi in 33 games would be.......remarkable. Thanks, BMHH for the pick-me-up.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Last 33 games (so not a terribly small sample), HanRam has put up this line:

140 PA, 14 hr, 144 rbi, .373/.429/.770/1.198

144 rbi?

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Going from -1.8 last year to +1.9 and counting fWAR this year is a ridiculously huge jump. My hopes were that he'd be at least replacement level coming into the season.

BRef has him at 2.6 WAR now (3.3 for oWAR), so the Yankees series was something like a $7M series?

 

[grimshaw]

He's going to get some down-ballot MVP votes at this point, right?

Locally maybe, because of all the important wins he has contributed to and voters are probably giving more weight to this time time of year. Miggy and Encarnacion are probably ahead of him among 1B.

Even after all this he's still just 9th in wRC+ and HR among 1B, 6th in slugging, and 10th in ISO.

The 1B offensive bar is really high again.

 

[Drek717]

Last 33 games (so not a terribly small sample), HanRam has put up this line:

140 PA, 14 hr, 44 rbi, .373/.429/.770/1.198

EDIT: 44 rbi, not 144. I mean, we all know rbi isn't a good metric, but I think we could all agree that 144 rbi in 33 games would be.......remarkable. Thanks, BMHH for the pick-me-up.

Not to nitpick (or pick a fight with the decidedly anti-RBI SoSH contingent) but I don't think it's accurate to say RBIs aren't a "good metric".

It is not a good metric to predict future success, but it is a valid stat for past value given. Once upon a time the statistical argument of the day was that base stealing was a net negative. Then people quickly found that there's a sweet spot (somewhere around 75% or better success rate) where it becomes a positive. Now we're at the point where the required success rate to be a net positive can be viewed in respect to the situation (outs, run differential, upcoming batters, pitcher and catcher CS rates, etc.) and teams are making significant use of the stolen base with the Red Sox at, what at least appears to me, at the front of the pack on this.

To assume that RBIs, a counting stat that does give you information on what actually happened beyond just batted ball outcome + BB, HBP, SO isn't going to at some point in the near future find a reasonable home in a model somewhere down the line is, in my opinion, the same breed of hubris that scouts used to apply to the SABR community not that long ago.

Case in point, as on-field data collection gets more robust and models get more complex I wouldn't be at all surprised if we see a predictive trend of RBI generation relative to men on base with certain hitters (when riding a hot streak like Hanley is now) discouraging teams even further from stealing in front of them and increasing the value of a walk, single, or double in front of them for in-game projections, or a metric that shows what pitchers successfully rebound from putting men on base versus the ones who shit the bed when guys are on (the Henry Owens phenomenon if you will). Situational accounting requires situational numbers, and RBIs are a core situational number in the game of baseball.

Disclaimer: this post is not directed at BaseballJones in a negative context, more in a positive one in that I think when we're talking about what has happened instead of what might happen RBIs are an entirely relevant stat and people shouldn't feel defensive about bringing them up just because they were given over-inflated value and treated as a predictive tool for far too long.

 

[Drek717]

Locally maybe, because of all the important wins he has contributed to and voters are probably giving more weight to this time time of year.

Even after all this he's still just 9th in wRC+ and HR among 1B, 6th in slugging, and 10th in ISO.

The 1B offensive bar is really high again.

But the MVP is league specific and he's 3rd in wRC+ among 1Bs in the AL behind only Cabrera and Encarnacion. He's 13th overall across all positions in the AL, just behind Mookie Betts who everyone is talking about as a top of ballot MVP candidate. MVP ballots are ten players long.

Not to slight Mookie with that second paragraph by the way. Betts is the standout on the team because he's the #12 hitter by wRC+, the #2 baserunner, and the #10 defender overall/#3 defensive OF (all per fangraphs). He's the complete package. He and Trout are in a class of two right now in the AL. If you expand to the entirety of MLB you add Kris Bryant and that's about it. Jackie Bradley, Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, and a few others make up the next tier of across the board producers but the top trio are about 50% higher than the best in that class by WAR, which is just insane.

 

[grimshaw]

But the MVP is league specific and he's 3rd in wRC+ among 1Bs in the AL behind only Cabrera and Encarnacion. He's 13th overall across all positions in the AL, just behind Mookie Betts who everyone is talking about as a top of ballot MVP candidate. MVP ballots are ten players long.

Ya - I added Miggy and Encarnacion after I had posted. The 2nd part was more about 1b in general and just putting his year in context.

 

[Devizier]

Hanley is pulling balls less than he has for most of his career (38% pull versus 39.7% for career) and much less than he did with the Dodgers (43.8%, 41.7%, 43.2%). Interestingly, that's a trend that began last year, which is particularly surprising given the presence of the monster.

He's also having his second best season ever in terms of hard hit balls (all caveats apply); his 38% this year trails only 2013 (46.1%) and is good for 31st in the league (somewhere between Trumbo and Goldschmidt). League leader is Ortiz (45.8%).

 

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

The balls he's been hitting lately have been truly crushed. I expected to see him a little higher up on the average HR distance list, but he's a fair way down at 401 feet, and behind Papi.

However, his bomb to dead center in Toronto is the 17th longest this year.

Also, ESPN has the one last night off CC as 114.9 MPH coming off the bat. Holy smokes.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

The balls he's been hitting lately have been truly crushed. I expected to see him a little higher up on the average HR distance list, but he's a fair way down at 401 feet, and behind Papi.

However, his bomb to dead center in Toronto is the 17th longest this year.

Also, ESPN has the one last night off CC as 114.9 MPH coming off the bat. Holy smokes.

Yeah, it makes sense that he'd be more elite in the exit velocity department than in distance, because he hits such moonshots.

Hanley lately has been giving me the feeling I used to get with Manny where you can tell it's gone almost as soon as it leaves the pitcher's hand--you see the ball starting to head toward a certain area of the strike zone and you just know there's no way he's going to miss it. I felt that particularly on his second shot last night.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Also, ESPN has the one last night off CC as 114.9 MPH coming off the bat. Holy smokes.

Holy smokes, indeed. It's somewhat rare for a home run ball to come off the bat that hard. Only 48 have had a higher exit velocity this year. One of which was Hanley's from 9/3/16 which was at 116.0 mph. Unsurprisingly, the angle was on the lower end of the spectrum (as is usually the case with high exit velocity home runs) at 20.8 degrees. True distance was only 390 feet, but that was an extremely hard hit ball.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Fangraphs had an article on how Hanley has changed his launch angle. Here's a bit:

It's a big deal. Through June 21, Ramirez hit the ball on the ground 54 percent of the time. Since then, it has been only 41 percent of the time. And when he hits grounders this year, he slugs just .299 -- that's one extra-base hit. Compare that to arguably Ramirez's best offensive season (2013), when he hit .345/.402/.638 for the Dodgers. His ground-ball rate that year? 40 percent.

Digging deeper, when Ramirez hits a ball with a launch angle of nine degrees or below, his average is .316 and his slugging percentage is .373. When he hits a ball with a launch angle of 10 degrees or higher, those numbers turn into .440 and an eye-popping .953. For Ramirez, it pays to keep the ball off the ground.

Here's one of the charts from the article:

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Don't know if it was mentioned, but Hanley tied his career season high RBI total yesterday with 106 and has his highest ISO since 2008 (2013 disregarded due to PA). During his 3 year career peak of 2007-2009, his ISOs were .230, .239 and .201. He is currently at .223. If this is the Hanley we get for the final 3 years, the contract ends up looking like a bargain. Who'd have thought?

Tale of 2 Halves

Since 6/22: 286 PA .323/.395/.657 44r, 82h, 16 2b, 0 3b, 23 HR, 67 RBI, 29bb/56k 4/4 sb.
Prior 6/22: 288 PA .265/.333/.377 35r, 68h, 12 2b,1 3b, 5 HR, 39 RBI, 23bb/56k 5/7 sb.

If you want to be less arbitrary with a cut off date, since the all star break he is .302/.360/.639 (.999 OPS). He's been one of the best hitters in all of baseball, nevermind the Redsox.



So in the 2nd half of the season, He has 9r, 14h, 4 2b, -1 3b, 18 HR, 26 RBI and 6bb in 2 LESS PA than the first half. He is striking out more though, haha. Pretty consistent with the bb/k ratio all year. The entire difference seems to be power. I think most people would have been happy with a .265/.333/.485 line at the start of the year. Instead, Hanley has an outside shot of .300/30/100 and an OPS north of .900.

 

[Al Zarilla]

"So in the 2nd half of the season, He has 9r, 14h, 4 2b, -1 3b, 18 HR, 26 RBI and 6bb in 2 LESS PA than the first half."

You might want to state that those are deltas between the first half and the second half.

 

[chrisfont9]

Don't know if it was mentioned, but Hanley tied his career season high RBI total yesterday with 106 and has his highest ISO since 2008 (2013 disregarded due to PA). During his 3 year career peak of 2007-2009, his ISOs were .230, .239 and .201. He is currently at .223. If this is the Hanley we get for the final 3 years, the contract ends up looking like a bargain. Who'd have thought?

Tale of 2 Halves

Since 6/22: 286 PA .323/.395/.657 44r, 82h, 16 2b, 0 3b, 23 HR, 67 RBI, 29bb/56k 4/4 sb.
Prior 6/22: 288 PA .265/.333/.377 35r, 68h, 12 2b,1 3b, 5 HR, 39 RBI, 23bb/56k 5/7 sb.

If you want to be less arbitrary with a cut off date, since the all star break he is .302/.360/.639 (.999 OPS). He's been one of the best hitters in all of baseball, nevermind the Redsox.



So in the 2nd half of the season, He has 9r, 14h, 4 2b, -1 3b, 18 HR, 26 RBI and 6bb in 2 LESS PA than the first half. He is striking out more though, haha. Pretty consistent with the bb/k ratio all year. The entire difference seems to be power. I think most people would have been happy with a .265/.333/.485 line at the start of the year. Instead, Hanley has an outside shot of .300/30/100 and an OPS north of .900.

Amazing that he has 14 more hits in the second sample, and 18 more home runs. So basically the only difference is a mother lode of homers.