Hanley and the $4M Game

glennhoffmania · Jul 21, 2016

What metric are you using to conclude that Hanley has been a below average player this year? fWAR?

rodderick · Jul 21, 2016

I was a little surprised to see how poorly Hanley's defense has been grades thus far. He's sure passed the eye test.

garlan5 · Jul 21, 2016

i've said it a million times i'm not a stat nerd but from the naked eye he looks solid on picks and footwork. he's been fair on flyballs and throws. I've seen a few mishaps there but minimal and hes doing just fine, not great (imho). The part he maybe lacking is reacting to line drives right or left. He seems a little slow reacting. He seems to have lost a little at the plate but that could just be from a noticeable slimmer body to help him at first. I think he can be a real hot bat at times and it seems to be working well here. He's really looking like he enjoys being here and making the effort.

tims4wins · Jul 21, 2016

Hanley is on "pace" for 19 HR, 33 2B, 95 RBI, and has a 460+ SLG and 350+ OBP. I think we all would have signed up for that in a heartbeat.

foulkehampshire · Jul 21, 2016

Find me a full time 1B with positive defensive (war) scores in Fangraphs (hint, there's only 1). The positional adjustment makes it nearly impossible.

He's having a slightly below average defensive season at 1B, which is to be expected given the circumstances.

Saints Rest · Jul 21, 2016

Look at HR's stats compared to JBJ's. They are remarkably similar except that JBJ has slight edges in 2B's and HRs, and a big edge in triples (thus a big edge in SLG and thus OPS).
G, AB, H, R, AVG, OBP, SB are all remarkably close.
JBJ plays a more challenging position defensively, and does so better, but Hanley hasn't been bad by any means.
Hanley by most measures has been about the 5th most valuable hitter on the team. I think that's pretty good.

lexrageorge · Jul 21, 2016

I wouldn't call Hanley "below average". His current 0.813 OPS is middle of the pack for the AL. Even before yesterday, he still would have been 5th in OPS among AL 1B's. However, for a good part of the season, we was trending in the low 0.700's, which would definitely be below average offensively. His 0.414 July BABIP is likely unsustainable, as was his 0.237 BABIP in the month of June.

Defensively, what likely hurts him is that he's last among AL 1B's in assists. My limited eye test seems to support the fact that his range is not great. I don't pretend to understand how Fangraphs defensive rankings work, and I tend to be skeptical of most of today's defensive metrics. To be fair to the metrics, there is a lot of noise in a half season sample. But even so, while his fWAR is not helped by his defensive stats, he is still middle of the pack in both UZR/150 and Fangraph's overall defensive rankings for 1B's.

Basically, he's been average among AL first basemen. Given that he's never played there before this year, and after last season's fiasco, that's about the best we could have expected. And it's also all the team really needed this season.

joe dokes · Jul 21, 2016

lexrageorge said:
Defensively, what likely hurts him is that he's last among AL 1B's in assists. My limited eye test seems to support the fact that his range is not great. I don't pretend to understand how Fangraphs defensive rankings work, and I tend to be skeptical of most of today's defensive metrics. To be fair to the metrics, there is a lot of noise in a half season sample. But even so, while his fWAR is not helped by his defensive stats, he is still middle of the pack in both UZR/150 and Fangraph's overall defensive rankings for 1B's.

Regarding assists, it may be actual range, but it looks like he plays very conservatively. Youkilis (for better) and Millar (for worse) were both very aggressive in going after grounders and making throws. Hanley's throws to 2nd are still sort of tentative. To his credit, he at least gets the sure out at 1st rather than risk throws he's unsure of. But even last night, he took the sure out at 1st and then threw home.

BaseballJones · Jul 21, 2016

lexrageorge said:
I wouldn't call Hanley "below average". His current 0.813 OPS is middle of the pack for the AL. Even before yesterday, he still would have been 5th in OPS among AL 1B's. However, for a good part of the season, we was trending in the low 0.700's, which would definitely be below average offensively. His 0.414 July BABIP is likely unsustainable, as was his 0.237 BABIP in the month of June.

Defensively, what likely hurts him is that he's last among AL 1B's in assists. My limited eye test seems to support the fact that his range is not great. I don't pretend to understand how Fangraphs defensive rankings work, and I tend to be skeptical of most of today's defensive metrics. To be fair to the metrics, there is a lot of noise in a half season sample. But even so, while his fWAR is not helped by his defensive stats, he is still middle of the pack in both UZR/150 and Fangraph's overall defensive rankings for 1B's.

Basically, he's been average among AL first basemen. Given that he's never played there before this year, and after last season's fiasco, that's about the best we could have expected. And it's also all the team really needed this season.

Considering that last year he was just a disaster, what he's given the Sox this year has been....very pleasant.

JBJ_HOF · Jul 21, 2016

fWAR uses UZR which isn't updated daily and wasn't updated last night so his defense didn't have anything to do with his fWAR increase last night.

DRS is updated nightly.

21st Century Sox · Jul 21, 2016

I have been very happy with Hanley at 1B. I thought he might be a butcher there. That said, I think defensive metrics (already murky) are even more difficult here. For example, Hanley has made some poor decisions this year, particulary on double play balls that have resulted in one out. (Perhaps easy step on bag and throw to second for force, he chose to throw to second, and get the lead out, but too slow developing to turn two). There are no metrics to show there, in fact he made a play. I hope that his hand adjustments at the plate have made the difference, because if he can go on a tear....it will be like May again.....

Al Zarilla · Jul 21, 2016

foulkehampshire said:
Find me a full time 1B with positive defensive (war) scores in Fangraphs (hint, there's only 1). The positional adjustment makes it nearly impossible.

He's having a slightly below average defensive season at 1B, which is to be expected given the circumstances.

You beat me posting that all MLB first basemen except Myers have a negative defensive fWAR, but what do you mean by "the positional adjustment". Guessing it means the position is "easier to play", so you'd have to play like superman to be positive.

Devizier · Jul 21, 2016

Apropos of nothing, Ramirez's offensive numbers (unadjusted) are almost identical to what he put up two years ago with the Dodgers. I wouldn't be surprised if he remains around this level, with loads of variance due to streakiness.

InsideTheParker · Jul 21, 2016

I was just looking for video of Hanley's defensive plays last night, especially the double play to Leon, but all I could find on mlb.com were the home-runs. Does anyone have a link to those plays? TIA.

Plympton91 · Jul 21, 2016

From my perspective Hanley has made some poor throws to 2B that have cost them DP opportunities. If the advanced stats pick that up its not surprising that the defensive metrics don't like him.

He's also been incredibly streaky on offense. We need the good streaks to last longer in the second half.

MyDaughterLovesTomGordon · Jul 21, 2016

He's got an OPS+ of 113 now. It can't have jumped THAT much with that game, but maybe it did. Regardless, his offense hasn't been "below average" and his defense hasn't been an obvious detractor, at the very least.

I think I more take issue with the idea that he's been a "footnote." Couldn't agree less. Hanley's been one of my favorite players this year - actively engaged in the infield, fun to watch, a personality - everything we could have hoped for, really. Sure, his power has been a bit low, but 280/360/450 slash lines don't exactly grow on trees.

I think we're a bit spoiled by the nearly otherworldly performances by Ortiz/JBJ/Betts - Hanley's been a good player for the Sox this year. Maybe not worth his contract, exactly, but night and day from last year.

foulkehampshire · Jul 21, 2016

Al Zarilla said:
You beat me posting that all MLB first basemen except Myers have a negative defensive fWAR, but what do you mean by "the positional adjustment". Guessing it means the position is "easier to play", so you'd have to play like superman to be positive.

Def = Fielding Runs Above Average + positional adjustment

The positional adjustment for 1B is -12.

absintheofmalaise · Jul 21, 2016

Al Zarilla said:
You beat me posting that all MLB first basemen except Myers have a negative defensive fWAR, but what do you mean by "the positional adjustment". Guessing it means the position is "easier to play", so you'd have to play like superman to be positive.

Every position on the field has a "positional adjustment" which either adds runs or subtracts runs from the Defense total. Here are the PAs for each position - +12.5 C, +7.5 SS, +2.5 2B/CF3B, -7.5 LF/RF, -12.5 1B, -17.5 DH. You add the fielding and the PA for the overall Defense number. As of the time I posted this, FG has him at 5.8 for Offense (batting + baserunning) and -8.0 on defense (fielding + positional). To come up with WAR add Offense + Defense + League + Replacement to come up with RAR. You then convert RAR to WAR. HR's RAR is currently10.4. HIs WAR is currently 1.1 You can learn more here.

Rice4HOF · Jul 21, 2016

InsideTheParker said:
I was just looking for video of Hanley's defensive plays last night, especially the double play to Leon, but all I could find on mlb.com were the home-runs. Does anyone have a link to those plays? TIA.

Here's the DP. http://mlb.mlb.com/r/video?content_id=950419283 YW.

C4CRVT · Jul 21, 2016

Who is Hanley Ramirez?

As a 23/24/25/26 year old he put up slash lines of between .300-.342 / .368-.410 / .475-.562 His OPS was between .853 and .954. He averaged 27 hr and 36 SB.

He battled injuries for a few years and eventually had a fantastic partial and a meh slightly longer season in his age 29 and 30 seasons before signing with Boston.
.345/.402/. 638 (1.040 OPS) with 20 HR in 86 games.
.283/.369/.448 (.817 OPS) with 13 HR in 128 games.

The turd that he laid last year has set up a pretty modest level of expectation for me for this year. And I think that it's great that he's far exceeding what he did last year and has seemed to be more-or-less healthy. I appreciate that he seems to have really dug in and taken to first base and seems to be a great chemistry guy. He has been a net positive contributor to a great offense.

With all of that being said, there remains some part of me that wants to believe that he's still capable of being a dominant player and is hoping that he'll have some kind of major resurgence. After all, even with all of his injury marred seasons and last year, his per 162 average is still a .295/.366/.492 with 25 HR. Every year that he doesn't put up some ridiculous line to correct all of the injury plagued bad numbers he's solidifying the idea that he's probably had too many injuries to ever really fulfill that kind of expectation. That bums me out.

santadevil · Jul 21, 2016

I liked that he was able to turn that double play last night.

Watching it unfold live, I thought he made a bad throw, especially missing on the first base side of home plate, but watching the slow mo replay, the thing that threw off his throw to home was that he stepped on first a second time with his drive leg (right leg), which likely didn't help his accuracy.

That was a game changing play though. 0 outs and bases loaded is tough to get out of without getting scored on.
And the Sox had given up 7 unanswered runs to that point.

My son and I were throwing on the ball field while listening to the game and at 8-0, my son says, "I thought the Giants were good."
I told him and 8-0 lead it awesome, but it's also still early and they are a good ball club. Hopefully that makes him recognize that the game isn't over until the final out is made.

Zososoxfan · Jul 21, 2016

absintheofmalaise said:
Every position on the field has a "positional adjustment" which either adds runs or subtracts runs from the Defense total. Here are the PAs for each position - +12.5 C, +7.5 SS, +2.5 2B/CF3B, -7.5 LF/RF, -12.5 1B, -17.5 DH. You add the fielding and the PA for the overall Defense number. As of the time I posted this, FG has him at 5.8 for Offense (batting + baserunning) and -8.0 on defense (fielding + positional). To come up with WAR add Offense + Defense + League + Replacement to come up with RAR. You then convert RAR to WAR. HR's RAR is currently10.4. HIs WAR is currently 1.1 You can learn more here.

It's surprising to me that 2B and 3B have the same position adjustment. Even in your link, it indicates that Bill James doesn't value 'up the middle' defenders as much as others. Specifically to the infield, that blows my mind because of the importance of double plays. Following your link gets you http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/fielding_position_adjustments/ but that doesn't provide a satisfactory answer IMO either. Furthermore, looking at league average OPS by position over the past 5 full seasons shows that 3B typically outperforms 2B by an average of ~.017 and a maximum of .053 (oddly in 2011, 2B finished at .709, .002 above 3B). I take that to mean that teams generally expect their 3B to out-hit their 2B. While it's possible that the defensive value and demands of 3B and 2B are equal or negligible, that doesn't pass the smell test to me and doesn't reconcile the fact that 3B typically out-hit 2B. i.e. there's a reason why the average 3B doesn't play 2B defensively and there's a reason why the average 2B doesn't hit like a 3B and I think there's something missing here.

Al Zarilla · Jul 21, 2016

Thanks Foulkh and abs.

Van Everyman · Jul 21, 2016

A few thoughts that haven't been covered here:

1) I wonder how his team chemistry will be next year absent Papi's steady hand. To my eyes, their relationship has been key.

2) Defensively Hanley seems not to be great diving toward the first base line – at the bare minimum I can't remember him doing that a single time this year successfully. Is there any defensive metric that can prove or disprove what my eye is telling me?

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat · Jul 21, 2016

Van Everyman said:
A few thoughts that haven't been covered here:

2) Defensively Hanley seems not to be great diving toward the first base line – at the bare minimum I can't remember him doing that a single time this year successfully. Is there any defensive metric that can prove or disprove what my eye is telling me?

He did this last night. Actually, I think on two of his nice plays he dove toward the line.

bstoker7 · Jul 21, 2016

Here's an example from the Spring: http://m.mlb.com/bos/video/topic/26659768/v556026583/bos-min-ramirez-dives-to-steal-a-hit-from-mauer

nvalvo · Jul 21, 2016

I've been thinking about his shoulder a lot. I remember players like Drew and Gonzalez who had extended recoveries from shoulder issues, which played out in reduced power numbers for awhile after they were able to return to the field — or at least that was a theory.

What if Hanley's shoulder is just now returning to full strength? He's been seeing the ball well all year, taking walks and hitting mostly singles, his offensive value fluctuating with his BABIP.

His ISO's by month with the Red Sox are pretty striking.

2015: .366 (shoulder injury), .102, .141, .161, .091 (shut down)
2016: .105, .137, .167, .375.

I, for one, am interested in seeing where this series leads.

Van Everyman · Jul 21, 2016

Bob Montgomery's Helmet Hat said:
He did this last night. Actually, I think on two of his nice plays he dove toward the line.

Ah, I had missed that thanks.

bstoker7 said:
Here's an example from the Spring: http://m.mlb.com/bos/video/topic/26659768/v556026583/bos-min-ramirez-dives-to-steal-a-hit-from-mauer

I love that this also includes Hanley forgetting how many outs there were and walking toward the dugout.

lexrageorge · Jul 21, 2016

Plympton91 said:
From my perspective Hanley has made some poor throws to 2B that have cost them DP opportunities. If the advanced stats pick that up its not surprising that the defensive metrics don't like him.

He's also been incredibly streaky on offense. We need the good streaks to last longer in the second half.

Playing more with Fangraphs:

Ramirez has been credited with 4 double plays started, good for 8th. AL median is around 7, and Cabrera leads the AL with 12. Interestingly, Fangraphs also calculates DPR, or double-play runs saved over an average player. HanRam grades out at 0.0, so by that mark he has been league average when it comes to starting double play as compared to simple force outs at 2nd base. That number could also be related to his relatively low number of fielding assists; fewer force outs to compare against.

The numbers argue that he just doesn't get to that many balls outside his range. When he gets the ball, his throws to 2nd are no worse than league average.

alwyn96 · Jul 21, 2016

Zososoxfan said:
It's surprising to me that 2B and 3B have the same position adjustment. Even in your link, it indicates that Bill James doesn't value 'up the middle' defenders as much as others. Specifically to the infield, that blows my mind because of the importance of double plays. Following your link gets you http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/article/fielding_position_adjustments/ but that doesn't provide a satisfactory answer IMO either. Furthermore, looking at league average OPS by position over the past 5 full seasons shows that 3B typically outperforms 2B by an average of ~.017 and a maximum of .053 (oddly in 2011, 2B finished at .709, .002 above 3B). I take that to mean that teams generally expect their 3B to out-hit their 2B. While it's possible that the defensive value and demands of 3B and 2B are equal or negligible, that doesn't pass the smell test to me and doesn't reconcile the fact that 3B typically out-hit 2B. i.e. there's a reason why the average 3B doesn't play 2B defensively and there's a reason why the average 2B doesn't hit like a 3B and I think there's something missing here.

fWAR positional adjustment isn't really a Bill James thing. He developed Win Shares, which was a cruder pre-WAR attempt to measure players' value by measuring their contributions in wins. The link there is from Tom Tango, who was a big voice in developing WAR along with Michael Lichtman and lots of others.

I agree that there's something kind of kludgy-seeming about the positional adjustments in WAR, but it's an incredibly complicated question and I think they way they did it is at least thoughtful and defensible. The adjustments aren't really set in stone though, and every so often you see people writing about whether it's time for them to be changed, and maybe at some point they will be if Dave Cameron is convinced. For what it's worth, BBRef WAR agrees with you, and gives 2B a +3 run adjustment while giving 3B +2 runs. That makes a little more intuitive sense to me, but in the big scheme it probably doesn't make much a huge difference in total WAR.

But anyway, it's nice to see Hanley hitting and not being a disaster at 1B.

FanSinceBoggs · Jul 21, 2016

I'm thrilled with Hanley's offensive resurgence. For about a season and a half, Hanley was a 90 OPS+ offensive player for the Red Sox, totally unacceptable. But his production lately is starting to resemble the numbers he put up with the Dodgers.

As far as his defense goes, the issue isn't overly relevant to me. He will play 1b for the entire season--he can't be moved to DH. If he is going to hit, I think he is the DH next season even if his defense is better than adequate. Hanley is glass, he gets hurt so easily, and so I want him in the DH spot next season to minimize injury. I would give Sandoval the first shot at winning the starting 1b position. If Sandoval continues to be a disaster, doesn't get in shape, or refuses to move to 1b, the Red Sox have a lot of options: (1) Moncada at 3b, Shaw at 1b, Sandoval on the bench, Hanley at DH. Or (2) Shaw at 3b, Travis at 1b, Sandoval on the bench, Hanley at DH.

The worst thing the Red Sox could do is sign an aging (and expensive) player like E.Encarnacion or J.Bautista, thereby sacrificing their number one draft pick. A better strategy: keep the farm system strong and avoid investing big money in older free agents.

Average Reds · Jul 21, 2016

This is as far form an analytical post as I can make, so I'll apologize in advance for it.

With that said, one of the things I've noticed with Hanley over the years is that it's somewhat easy to tell when he's locked in. He's relaxed, he stays way back and let's the ball get deep and he squares up everything he swings at.

That Hanley made a brief appearance in April of last year and went on sabbatical last season after he was injured in May. He re-appeared for a brief moment in July and then disappeared again. It looks like he's finally back and I, for one, and thrilled. I'm also pleased as hell that he's playing a more than competent first base, which is a massive upgrade over the defensive disaster that he was in LF last year.

I do expect that he'll be a much more dangerous offensive player in the second half. If he can provide protection for Papi, we might witness one hell of an offensive show from the two of them.

Al Zarilla · Jul 21, 2016

Savin Hillbilly said:
Bumping Hanley to DH in favor of Sandoval seems like a really good way to make an unhappy camper in the clubhouse, unless it's Hanley's idea. He has claimed the 1B job this year, and it should be his until someone takes it away from him.

I agree completely. When Sandoval did play first for the Giants, he got hurt stretching for a low throw, was out quite a while and declared he never wanted to play first again.
He's also short for a first baseman; quoted 5'11" looks generous to me. I don't know what his vertical is, but it can't be very good. I'd keep Hanley at first. He's making the plays, looks confident, OK, his throws leave something to be desired, esp. to second base.

Also, we keep hearing from Hanley and others about all the time Brian Butterfield has spent with him and how much good it has done. Last night Hanley was singing the praises again. Keep a good thing going.

FanSinceBoggs · Jul 21, 2016

Savin Hillbilly said:
Bumping Hanley to DH in favor of Sandoval seems like a really good way to make an unhappy camper in the clubhouse, .

There is no evidence for this. For some reason, people assume that Hanley is a clubhouse cancer, or a potential clubhouse cancer, and that the organization must tip-toe around him for fear of setting him off. As a younger player, Hanley may have had a few clubhouse issues with the Marlins, but this has not been the case with the Red Sox. He has been a team player and has done whatever the organization has asked him to do. He even played LF for the Red Sox, even though he couldn't do it very well. If he could handle a move to LF, without turning into a clubhouse cancer, I would expect him to accept a move to DH in order to better maintain his health.

As far as Sandoval goes, in the past he didn't want to play 1b, but he has lost his starting position at 3b. Accordingly, the choice is now 1b or bench. If he wants to play, he will learn the position. Sandoval should be a pretty good first baseman. After all, he was an above average defender at 3b not too long ago. He is 5'11, not ideal but tall enough. I'm working on the assumption that he comes into camp in shape; otherwise he doesn't start anywhere.

he won't hit well enough for 1B, either

Maybe or maybe not. He could have a bounce back year in 2017. Stranger things have happened. And we don't know to what extent Sandoval has been hampered by the injury. We aren't talking about R.Castillo here, a guy who has never performed at the major league level (or the Triple A level). We are talking about a guy who has had some big years in the major leagues and will be 30 years old going into next season (still young enough).

Papelbon's Poutine · Jul 21, 2016

There's no evidence for making a player unhappy by playing him where he would rather not play? Mmmmkay.

Hillbilly's comment wasn't necessarily a knock on Hanley. If they told Pedey they were moving him to LF I'm pretty sure he'd be unhappy about it. Moving someone to DH is telling them you think they are a negative on defense. Hanley isn't, has show enthusiasm about 1B and has out in the work to be pretty damn solid at it. It's got little to do with his reputation.

Cesar Crespo · Sep 1, 2016

Since July 1st: 182PA .296/.374/.580 11HRs, 18k/36bb.

OPS by month: .696, .842, .720, .940, .962.

.281/.354/.471. The walks came back and he's hitting for significantly more power. He has his highest ISO since 2009 if you don't count his half season in 2013.

Hoodie Sleeves · Sep 1, 2016

FanSinceBoggs said:
As far as Sandoval goes, in the past he didn't want to play 1b, but he has lost his starting position at 3b. Accordingly, the choice is now 1b or bench. If he wants to play, he will learn the position. Sandoval should be a pretty good first baseman. After all, he was an above average defender at 3b not too long ago. He is 5'11, not ideal but tall enough. I'm working on the assumption that he comes into camp in shape; otherwise he doesn't start anywhere. .

Is there any real reason to think that Sandoval would be a better 1B than Hanley?

There's some research that indicates that hitting as a DH is actually harder than hitting as a 1B (the assumption is usually that it's harder to get out of your own head during a bad game - can't contribute on the other side of the ball) - so there's a possibility that you shift Hanley to DH and it screws with his hitting, and you shift Sandoval to 1B, and he's just a bad first baseman (and isn't a good enough hitter anyways), and you end up scrambling.

I really don't think the Red Sox should be doing much to accommodate Sandoval - he's due a lot of money, but he's just not a good enough player to start pushing people off their positions. If Hanley really is back to being a .950 hitter, you leave him wherever he feels most comfortable, and you tell Pablo "too bad".

If that means Pablo is DH'ing and putting up a .700 OPS, or they've brought in a 35 year old one year rental to hit .790, that's fine.

Red(s)HawksFan · Sep 1, 2016

Hoodie Sleeves said:
Is there any real reason to think that Sandoval would be a better 1B than Hanley?

To be fair to the post you're responding to, it was made in July. Since then, I think the notion that Sandoval has lost the starting 3B job or that the starting 1B spot is up for grabs are both less than certain.

Travis Shaw obviously beat out Sandoval at 3B in the spring, but he's not really doing a whole lot right now to solidify his claim for that spot in 2017. First, they traded for Hill to platoon with him, now they've brought up Moncada ostensibly to take more playing time away from Shaw. It would appear that the starting 3B position is going to be a wide open come spring, and I expect Sandoval will be given every opportunity to take it back.

plucy · Sep 1, 2016

Hanley's rejuvenation seems to be fueled by an increase of over 100 points in slugging vs. RHP between the first three months and the July-August sample. He has destroyed LHP in the July -Aug sample, but was still quite successful in the first three months as well. Perhaps his shoulder regained strength after a year plus from his encounter in LF. Anyway good to see him as a power threat again.

In my lifetime · Sep 1, 2016

Red(s)HawksFan said:
Travis Shaw obviously beat out Sandoval at 3B in the spring, but he's not really doing a whole lot right now to solidify his claim for that spot in 2017. First, they traded for Hill to platoon with him, now they've brought up Moncada ostensibly to take more playing time away from Shaw. It would appear that the starting 3B position is going to be a wide open come spring, and I expect Sandoval will be given every opportunity to take it back.

With the Swoon of Shaw, the Porking of Panda, my money is on Moncada to be the starting 3B for next year and then hopefully the decade or so to follow.

lusky · Sep 2, 2016

In my lifetime said:
With the Swoon of Shaw, the Porking of Panda, my money is on Moncada to be the starting 3B for next year and the hopefully the decade or so to follow.

Yep, hoping for Panda to look good enough in spring training that we can get a middle reliever and a bag of baseballs and only eat 1/2 his salary. Dang these kids look good !

uk_sox_fan · Sep 4, 2016

In my lifetime said:
With the Swoon of Shaw, the Porking of Panda, my money is on Moncada to be the starting 3B for next year and then hopefully the decade or so to follow.

Whilst I hope you're right, at this moment if I were a betting man (ok full disclosure - I am) I'd take that bet right now in a heartbeat. Unquestioned that he's the likely 3b-man of the future, but I think he's a long shot for Opening Day 2017.

Buzzkill Pauley · Sep 4, 2016

uk_sox_fan said:
Whilst I hope you're right, at this moment if I were a betting man (ok full disclosure - I am) I'd take that bet right now in a heartbeat. Unquestioned that he's the likely 3b-man of the future, but I think he's a long shot for Opening Day 2017.

Really? Especially if the Sox go deep in the playoffs, I expect Sandoval has seen his last game as a Red Sox. My magic 8-ball told me Panda + $$ for a reliever will happen this offseason, as well.

A bench of Holt, Young, Shaw, and Vazquez would be relatively cheap, very solid defensively, and able to cover any pinch-hitting duties that would be likely to arise, given how stacked the lineup looks to remain.

NoXInNixon · Sep 4, 2016

Buzzkill Pauley said:
Really? Especially if the Sox go deep in the playoffs, I expect Sandoval has seen his last game as a Red Sox. My magic 8-ball told me Panda + $$ for a reliever will happen this offseason, as well.

He wouldn't be the first player to have a shitty year due to injury, get healthy then have a serviceable year.

Even if they think Moncada is ready to start next year, it makes a lot of sense to give Panda most of the starts in April to see if he can regain some trade value, so long as he looks ok in Spring Training.

nvalvo · Sep 4, 2016

NoXInNixon said:
He wouldn't be the first player to have a shitty year due to injury, get healthy then have a serviceable year.

Even if they think Moncada is ready to start next year, it makes a lot of sense to give Panda most of the starts in April to see if he can regain some trade value, so long as he looks ok in Spring Training.

To which I'd add: 1-200 AAA PA wouldn't hurt Moncada and would buy us another year with a guy already rich enough to likely have little interest in traditional security-for-FA-years extensions.

SpaceMan37 · Sep 4, 2016

NoXInNixon said:
He wouldn't be the first player to have a shitty year due to injury, get healthy then have a serviceable year.

Even if they think Moncada is ready to start next year, it makes a lot of sense to give Panda most of the starts in April to see if he can regain some trade value, so long as he looks ok in Spring Training.

I know this isn't a reason to make a decision on him, but there is no player I hate watching more than Sandoval. I cannot stand batters who swing at everything. He's just as annoying as AJP to me. I always wonder why pitchers ever throw them a strike.

Buzzkill Pauley · Sep 4, 2016

NoXInNixon said:
He wouldn't be the first player to have a shitty year due to injury, get healthy then have a serviceable year.

Even if they think Moncada is ready to start next year, it makes a lot of sense to give Panda most of the starts in April to see if he can regain some trade value, so long as he looks ok in Spring Training.

We can all hope there's at least one GM who's willing to gamble on Sandoval having some more "serviceable" years on his contract. Since that would mean getting a better return, or at least eating a bit less money.

I disagree that Sandoval should be given starts in the field over any of the other options the Sox have, though. In all honesty, a Shaw/Rutledge platoon is likely to put up equivalent numbers to what reasonably might be projected for Panda at this point of his career, even if the Sox do want Moncada -- who is the clear future at 3B -- to spend some time in AAA for service time reasons, to work of plate approach, to improve his footwork, or whatever.

But who knows? I haven't seen Sandoval recently. Maybe he's worth giving another shot, if he's already shed the 50 lbs he needed to drop, so that he can simply work on strength and agility in the offseason, like other successful MLB players do.

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