Hall of Fame balloting

[Bozo Texino]

Astros County has my previous post summed up pretty well: http://www.astroscounty.com/2014/01/hold-phone.html
 
What the hell is going on with the vote counting?  571 ballots were sent out, 569 were cast.  Yet sources I've seen claim only one ballot was returned blank...

 

[tims4wins]

New Britain was a brutal home run park, though. The whole team hit just 31 HR in 1990, and the pitching staff just 44. Only 10 players in the entire Eastern League hit double-digit HR. Though you may be right that this is factoring into voters' thinking. They can't be expected to know things that took me 15 seconds to look up on BB-REF (sadly, only half-sarcastic).

 
Right. And of course the famous eye test as well
 

 

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Bagwell had a .436 SLG in the minors, with 6 HR and 48 2B in 859 PA. You can see why he would be questioned...

 
569 of his 831 pre-debut minor league PA (he had 28 PA in rehab assignments in 1995 and 2005) came when he was playing for New Britain of the Eastern League.  New Britain was notorious for suppressing HR totals.  In that season, he led the league with a .333 BA and a .422 OBP, as well as total hits and doubles.  He was clearly a very good hitter.  Arguably the best hitter in that league, maybe in all of AA that year.  Power often will develop later for a player with a good eye and good swing like he had.
 
His progression follows a fairly standard bell curve by age.  15 HR as a 23-year-old rookie.  Peaked at age 29-32 (avg 42 HR).  Moved to a new HR friendly ballpark in his age 32 season (his career high with 47) and continued to take advantage of that until his retirement following his age 37 season.  There's nothing extraordinary about his career arc except that it happened to occur in the midst of McGwire/Sosa/Bonds.

 

[tims4wins]

Right, I'm aware of New Britain, many others aren't. Add it to the "eye test" and you can see why a lot of voters would have doubts. Not saying it is right or I agree.

 

[bohous]

Pretty cool that Maddux and Glavine go in together.

 
Would have been even cooler if Smoltz retired a year earlier.

 

[Average Reds]

Bagwell and Piazza baffle me.  Neither were ever mentioned in the Mitchell Report and are not in based "looked like a user".

 
I believe they both belong, but this perspective baffles me, since both have been rumored to be PED users for many years.  And Bagwell certainly "looked like a user" during his playing days.
 
I say this not to smear either player, but because I'm stunned that you are unaware of the rumors.

 

[joe dokes]

 I don't like Gurnick's logic any more than you do, but  for better or for worse, there's an enourmous difference between that and selling your vote.

 
Its not like he put his vote up for auction. He allowed deadspin to crowdsource the vote in exchange for a charitable contibution, if I read it right. There's an enormous difference between that and announcing  "The ten candidates (or their supporters) who pony up the most cash will get my vote." Gurnick (and Chass) threw a tantrum.

 

[moondog80]

 
Its not like he put his vote up for auction. He allowed deadspin to crowdsource the vote in exchange for a charitable contibution, if I read it right. There's an enormous difference between that and announcing  "The ten candidates (or their supporters) who pony up the most cash will get my vote." Gurnick (and Chass) threw a tantrum.

Fair enough, but still, that seems like more of an affront than Gurnick. 

 

[kieckeredinthehead]

 
Biggio's getting in, dude.  It's going to happen.  I'm not sure if there's been a player in the last 20 years who's reached 70% and not eventually gotten in.  This isn't a Blyleven or Rice situation where his time is nearly up.

 
I believe Morris now holds the record for highest vote % without actually getting in. The last player to get over 50% but not eventually be voted in was Gil Hodges, 60.1% on his 13th try, 49.4% his 14th, and 63.4% on his final ballot. That was 30 years ago.

 

[BoSox Rule]

 
Would have been even cooler if Smoltz retired a year earlier.

No kidding

 

[Joe D Reid]

 
Its not like he put his vote up for auction. He allowed deadspin to crowdsource the vote in exchange for a charitable contibution, if I read it right. There's an enormous difference between that and announcing  "The ten candidates (or their supporters) who pony up the most cash will get my vote." Gurnick (and Chass) threw a tantrum.

If you read the most recent article on Deadspin, I think the plan was to "buy" a vote with a charitable contribution. Once they got somebody lined up, they reached out to other voters to see whether they would be willing to use the Deadspin ballot as their own. LeBatard agreed to do that. Then, weirdly, the guy who agreed to "sell" his ballot in the first place pulled out, but LeBatard agreed to stick with the Deadspin ballot. 
 
So I don't think any money was actually involved here, to LeBatard, a charity, or anything else.

 

[phrenile]

Mussina with 2813 K's. How many would he have had if he had faced the pitcher's spot two to three times a game.

[tablegrid Career strikeouts, Strikeouts versus non-pitchers, Strikeouts versus pitchers] Total SO SO vs. Non-P SO vs. P G. Maddux 3371 2952 419 T. Glavine 2607 2160 447 M. Mussina 2813 2793 20 [/tablegrid]

 

[absintheofmalaise]

 I get this.  I would vote for Biggio.  But WAR accounts for position and defense and he has a WAR that doesn't stand out amongst HOFers.  It's also below both Bobby Grich and Lou Whitaker.   I think Curt Schilling's vote total, for one, is far more of an injustice.

The defensive WAR numbers prior to 2002 are based on Total Zone and should be taken with a grain of salt large enough to choke on. Catcher numbers are still lacking. 

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Fair enough, but still, that seems like more of an affront than Gurnick. 

 
I disagree.  LeBatard admitted that he couldn't do the ballot justice.  Rather than throw it away, he gave voice to a segment of baseball that is otherwise completely left out of the process (the fans).  And they got it right...putting aside the PED moral debate, it's hard to argue any of their choices aren't among the 10-12 best baseball players on the current ballot.
 
I can respect that more than thumbing one's nose at fans and players alike by submitting a ballot with just one borderline at best candidate chosen.

 

[DJnVa]

Astros County has my previous post summed up pretty well: http://www.astroscounty.com/2014/01/hold-phone.html
 
What the hell is going on with the vote counting?  571 ballots were sent out, 569 were cast.  Yet sources I've seen claim only one ballot was returned blank...

 
HoF story now says 571 votes cast, not 569. Check the table.
 
http://baseballhall.org/news/press-releases/bbwaa-elects-greg-maddux-tom-glavine-and-frank-thomas

 

[Bozo Texino]

 
HoF story now says 571 votes cast, not 569. Check the table.
 
http://baseballhall.org/news/press-releases/bbwaa-elects-greg-maddux-tom-glavine-and-frank-thomas

 
Was just about to reply to your original post.  Yeah, I just saw that the vote totals were updated.

So I guess they sent out 572?  573?  Whatever.

 

[8slim]

 
Part of me wonders if they're suffering a bit from how they were viewed as minor leaguers.  Bagwell was traded because he didn't show the power potential that Lou Gorman wanted in a corner infield prospect (ignoring that his low power numbers came playing in a minor league park that surpressed HR totals significantly).  Then he fills out and hits 449 HR in his career.  Piazza was a late late round pick which was considered by some as just a favor to his godfather, Tommy Lasorda, then he goes nuts from day one in the big leagues.
 
It's almost like voters are putting stock in poor/inaccurate scouting evaluations and explaining it away by putting the PED suspicions on the players instead.

 
I find it hard to believe that the vast majority of these voters know absolutely anything about Bagwell's minor league career.
 
They're not voting for these guys because they assume they used PEDs.  The assume Maddux, Thomas and Glavine did not.
 
It's ridiculous.

 

[terrisus]

 
Right. And of course the famous eye test as well
 

 

 
Yeah. Look at that awesome beard he grew. Clearly he belongs in the Hall of Fame.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

 
Was just about to reply to your original post.  Yeah, I just saw that the vote totals were updated.

So I guess they sent out 572?  573?  Whatever.

 
Ballots submitted as blank are counted.  The only ballots not counted are the ones not returned.

 

[redsahx]

Fair enough, but still, that seems like more of an affront than Gurnick. 

 
Seriously what is wrong with what LeBatard did? His explanation, particularly the part where he points out that many fans are just as qualified to vote as most of the writers shows where his heart was. His vote essentially became a way for fans to have an influence (albeit a somewhat microscopic one).

 

[Bozo Texino]

 
Ballots submitted as blank are counted.  The only ballots not counted are the ones not returned.

 
Gotcha.  We don't know how many ballots were sent out, but 571 came back, one of which was submitted blank.
 
The original issue was with the random 569 that originally appeared on the site.  Everything makes sense now.

 

[mastergasket]

Let's see if this clears up the logjam in future years. This year, there were 17 holdovers and 19 new candidates. Of the 17 holdovers, Morris's time is up and Palmeiro got eliminated. None of them were inducted.
 
Of the 19 new candidates, 14 were eliminated and three were elected.
 
That leaves... 17 holdovers for next year. Again. And there will be 27 new candidates. http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/hof_2015.shtml
 
However, only a handful of those 27 should garner a significant number of votes (Johnson, Pedro, Smoltz, Sheffield, Carlos Delgado, maybe Nomar).
 
In 2016, it gets a little bit simpler. Don Mattingly will be off the ballot, and of the new selections, only Ken Griffey and Jim Edmonds will warrant serious consideration. But after that, there will be more tough choices. In 2017, Ivan Rodriguez, Vlad Guerrero, Manny Ramirez and Jorge Posada will join the ballot, with Chipper and Andruw Jones, Jim Thome, Scott Rolen and Bobby Abreu joining in 2018.
 
So it looks like 2016 is the voters' best chance to clean up the ballot.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

 
I find it hard to believe that the vast majority of these voters know absolutely anything about Bagwell's minor league career.
 
They're not voting for these guys because they assume they used PEDs.  The assume Maddux, Thomas and Glavine did not.
 
It's ridiculous.

 
In contrast to Bagwell's short but powerless minor league career and Piazza's long shot rise from a charity late round pick, Frank Thomas was a monster player in college, a first round draft pick, and was always freakishly huge and muscly.  They (scouts or reporters, take your pick) had Thomas pegged as a future Hall of Famer from day one.  Bagwell and Piazza were a surprise to a lot of them, hence they must have had "help".
 
Agreed, it's ridiculous.

 

[Fishercat]

FWIW, it appears Dan Le Betard received no payment or charitable contributions for his vote. 
 
Can the BBWAA revoke a vote because he handed it off to someone else (maybe) or because he did what other people told him (seems more doubtful there).

 

[joe dokes]

If you read the most recent article on Deadspin, I think the plan was to "buy" a vote with a charitable contribution. Once they got somebody lined up, they reached out to other voters to see whether they would be willing to use the Deadspin ballot as their own. LeBatard agreed to do that. Then, weirdly, the guy who agreed to "sell" his ballot in the first place pulled out, but LeBatard agreed to stick with the Deadspin ballot. 
 
So I don't think any money was actually involved here, to LeBatard, a charity, or anything else.

thanks. I had a hard time following along.

 

[soxhop411]

HOF votes are not ALL public (only those who want their votes to be public) right?
 
They need to make HOF votes public for accountability, and drop the 10 vote rule... 

 

[NortheasternPJ]

FWIW, it appears Dan Le Betard received no payment or charitable contributions for his vote. 
 
Can the BBWAA revoke a vote because he handed it off to someone else (maybe) or because he did what other people told him (seems more doubtful there).

 
I'd love to see the shitstorm over them revoking Le Betard's ballet after some of the other jokes of a ballot. At least the players on Le Betard's ballot were legit.
 
BBWAA clings to the rules that were written in 1930's and the morality clause etc. Fuck it, it says nothing about giving someone else your ballot does it and then you verifying it and agreeing with the votes? or taking outside influence for your votes? You need to read the rules as written and interpret them as you feel appropriate. That's the stance the BBWAA has taken. Le Betard saw nothing in the rules prohibiting it, so suck it.
 
Edit: While I'm here, the #1 way to fix this is to not make this exclusive to the BBWAA. Why aren't people like announcers or media types that don't write not allowed to vote? Each team's announcers see more games than 80% of the BBWAA voters (aka those who aren't beat writers) but have no say. 

 

[Leather]

Let's see if this clears up the logjam in future years. This year, there were 17 holdovers and 19 new candidates. Of the 17 holdovers, Morris's time is up and Palmeiro got eliminated. None of them were inducted.
 
Of the 19 new candidates, 14 were eliminated and three were elected.
 
That leaves... 17 holdovers for next year. Again. And there will be 27 new candidates. http://www.baseball-reference.com/awards/hof_2015.shtml
 
However, only a handful of those 27 should garner a significant number of votes (Johnson, Pedro, Smoltz, Sheffield, Carlos Delgado, maybe Nomar).
 
In 2016, it gets a bit little simpler. Don Mattingly will be off the ballot, and of the new selections, only Ken Griffey and Jim Edmonds will warrant serious consideration. But after that, there will be more tough choices. In 2017, Ivan Rodriguez, Vlad Guerrero, Manny Ramirez and Jorge Posada will join the ballot, with Chipper and Andruw Jones, Jim Thome, Scott Rolen and Bobby Abreu joining in 2018.
 
So it looks like the 2016 is the voters' best chance to clean up the ballot.

 
I would be very surprised if  Nomar gets anything more than a handful of votes.  EDIT:  Delgado probably will get a bunch, actually.

 

[soxhop411]

 
I'd love to see the shitstorm over them revoking Le Betard's ballet after some of the other jokes of a ballot. At least the players on Le Betard's ballot were legit.
 
BBWAA clings to the rules that were written in 1930's and the morality clause etc. Fuck it, it says nothing about giving someone else your ballot does it and then you verifying it and agreeing with the votes? or taking outside influence for your votes? You need to read the rules as written and interpret them as you feel appropriate. That's the stance the BBWAA has taken. Le Betard saw nothing in the rules prohibiting it, so suck it.
 
Edit: While I'm here, the #1 way to fix this is to not make this exclusive to the BBWAA. Why aren't people like announcers or media types that don't write not allowed to vote? Each team's announcers see more games than 80% of the BBWAA voters (aka those who aren't beat writers) but have no say. 

NHL/NFL is like this also I thought. (only writers vote for HOF and awards?)

 

[smastroyin]

I realize that the announcement came after the start of the show, but it kills me that knowing they would do a segment on the deadspin ballot, neither felger nor Mazz read the reasoning.

 

[NortheasternPJ]

 
I'm outraged no one voted for Timlin. Eightsworth is probably committing suicide. 
 
I also love the only accept mail or fax, very pre-steroids era. Plus the BBWAA still uses AOL??? Anyone want to start submitting fake ballots next year to 718-767-2583?
 
Maybe Anonymous or someone will start a campaign to send in 3 million ballots next year and DDoS them.
 
Edit: No disrespect for timsnot4HOF.

 

[tims4wins]

Hey he's my screen name too

 

[foulkehampshire]

 
Right. And of course the famous eye test as well
 

 

 
Curt Schilling got bigger over his career as well. DISQUALIFIED

 

[phrenile]

Their facial hair had opposite career trajectories.

 

[BucketOBalls]

^^^^^ Ok, if you didn't vote for him due to the mustache, that might be an acceptable reason.
 

 
Curt Schilling got bigger over his career as well. DISQUALIFIED

 
So did Babe Ruth. Has any player ever actually shrunk? They should start fudging Pedroia's physicals.
 
What's bad is that Bonds, Clemens and Manny will hang around for years and split the voting. There is a couple others I can see in that group(Piazza), but that is the "would-be-first-ballot-except..." group.
 
So 10 vote limit may actually start to matter in the coming years as guys who should be, but have some sort of hint of suspicion around them for whatever reason accumulate. It would be nice if this didn't take 15 years to sort out. I wonder if they increase the vote limit.
 
 
What gets me is some of the low vote guys. Even if you kick out the roids candidates, it seems like it would be easy to find 10 actual deserving people on this ballot.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

NHL/NFL is like this also I thought. (only writers vote for HOF and awards?)

 
Hockey Hall of Fame inductees are selected and voted on by an 18 member selection committee.  Members of the committee are appointed for 3-year terms, with six up for renewal/replacement each year.  The members aren't limited to being writers or being members of any union or association.
 
Football Hall of Fame inductees are voted on by a 46 member selection committee.  One media representative from each NFL city (two for NY), one national rep from the Pro Football Writers of America, and thirteen at-large members make up the committee.  Eligible candidates can be nominated by fans, but the final ballot is limited to 17 names (15 "modern era" and 2 senior committee nominees).  No less than four and no more than seven candidates must be elected each year.  So if they have a ballot with only two guys getting the minimum vote, they keep voting until they get at least two more.

 

[twothousandone]

So, the best pitcher NOT in the HoF is Luis Tiant, still. Right?

 

[RedOctober3829]

I don't agree that Craig Biggio is a slam-dunk HOFer.  Only 7 AS appearances out of 20 years and none after 32 years old.  He only got votes for MVP 5 times in 20 years and only twice was he even in the top 5.  To me, the HOF is the elite of the elite.  His JAWS rating is 15th all-time among 2B.  Chase Utley is one spot ahead of him.  Does anyone think Chase Utley is a HOFer?

 

[foulkehampshire]

 
So did Babe Ruth. Has any player ever actually shrunk? 
 

 
Juilo Lugo 

 

[foulkehampshire]

I don't agree that Craig Biggio is a slam-dunk HOFer.  Only 7 AS appearances out of 20 years and none after 32 years old.  He only got votes for MVP 5 times in 20 years and only twice was he even in the top 5.  To me, the HOF is the elite of the elite.  His JAWS rating is 15th all-time among 2B.  Chase Utley is one spot ahead of him.  Does anyone think Chase Utley is a HOFer?

 
Hard to say. He hasn't been so healthy the last half decade. 

 

[soxhop411]

 
Hockey Hall of Fame inductees are selected and voted on by an 18 member selection committee.  Members of the committee are appointed for 3-year terms, with six up for renewal/replacement each year.  The members aren't limited to being writers or being members of any union or association.
 
Football Hall of Fame inductees are voted on by a 46 member selection committee.  One media representative from each NFL city (two for NY), one national rep from the Pro Football Writers of America, and thirteen at-large members make up the committee.  Eligible candidates can be nominated by fans, but the final ballot is limited to 17 names (15 "modern era" and 2 senior committee nominees).  No less than four and no more than seven candidates must be elected each year.  So if they have a ballot with only two guys getting the minimum vote, they keep voting until they get at least two more.

thanks…...

 

[8slim]

I don't agree that Craig Biggio is a slam-dunk HOFer.  Only 7 AS appearances out of 20 years and none after 32 years old.  He only got votes for MVP 5 times in 20 years and only twice was he even in the top 5.  To me, the HOF is the elite of the elite.  His JAWS rating is 15th all-time among 2B.  Chase Utley is one spot ahead of him.  Does anyone think Chase Utley is a HOFer?

 
Funny you write this.  I went to peruse Biggio's stats on Baseball Reference this afternoon, expecting to be outraged (OUTRAGED!) that he didn't make the cut.  No doubt he compares very favorably to most 2Bmen, and he most likely should be in the HOF, but I wasn't as blown away as I figured I would be.
 
I mean who debates if Biggio was a better player than Lou Whitaker, and his 3,000 hits have a historical appeal, but was he *that* much better than Lou Whitaker?  Whitaker had a better OPS+ and WAR than Biggio.  Had the same number of Gold Gloves (3) and 5 All-Star Games to Biggio's 7.
 
I'm not defending the dopey writers who vote on this stuff for a second, but people may be overstating Biggio's case a tad too.
 
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/whitalo01.shtml

 

[terrisus]

 
Funny you write this.  I went to peruse Biggio's stats on Baseball Reference this afternoon, expecting to be outraged (OUTRAGED!) that he didn't make the cut.  No doubt he compares very favorably to most 2Bmen, and he most likely should be in the HOF, but I wasn't as blown away as I figured I would be.
 
I mean who debates if Biggio was a better player than Lou Whitaker, and his 3,000 hits have a historical appeal, but was he *that* much better than Lou Whitaker?  Whitaker had a better OPS+ and WAR than Biggio.  Had the same number of Gold Gloves (3) and 5 All-Star Games to Biggio's 7.
 
I'm not defending the dopey writers who vote on this stuff for a second, but people may be overstating Biggio's case a tad too.
 
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/whitalo01.shtml

 
Or understating Lou Whitaker's case.
 
It's funny how some people (like Morris) seem to catch on as certain people's "cause" to get them elected, while other players just fade away.

 

[DJnVa]

I don't agree that Craig Biggio is a slam-dunk HOFer.  Only 7 AS appearances out of 20 years and none after 32 years old.  He only got votes for MVP 5 times in 20 years and only twice was he even in the top 5.  To me, the HOF is the elite of the elite.  His JAWS rating is 15th all-time among 2B.  Chase Utley is one spot ahead of him.  Does anyone think Chase Utley is a HOFer?

 
Until his injuries of the last few years? Definitely. Or at least, he was heading that way if he had not been injured. 2005-2009 are ridiculous.

 

[mabrowndog]

 Why aren't people like announcers or media types that don't write not allowed to vote? Each team's announcers see more games than 80% of the BBWAA voters (aka those who aren't beat writers) but have no say. 

 
I agree in principle, but team announcers are often directly employed by the teams, or by networks owned/controlled by said teams, or by networks where the teams are granted final approval of on-air personnel.
 
That's a tough row to hoe in the garden of objectivity, but then again by including all 30 teams you'd have a defacto checks & balances system in place.
 

 
I'm outraged no one voted for Timlin.

 
I actually believe Timlin is at least as deserving of induction as Lee Smith, which is to say neither deserves induction.
 
When you level the slate for park effects, for Timlin's longer PED-era career component, for Timlin having to face far more DH types due to his longer AL tenure, and for Smith getting to face 3 times as many pitchers, it's a closer case between them than one might initially think. At that point Timlin's 4 WS rings might well give him the edge.
 
But the almighty SAVE statistic is revered by the legion of idiots of the keyboard.

 

[RedOctober3829]

 
Until his injuries of the last few years? Definitely. Or at least, he was heading that way if he had not been injured. 2005-2009 are ridiculous.

He was trending towards an unbelievable end to his career before that ACL/MCL injury in 2000.  After his injury, he only put up an OPS of over .800 twice(one of them being .806 so barely over .800) and an OPS+ over 100 only 3 times(two seasons being 104 and 105 so again barely over league average). His last two seasons he put up OPS+ of 84 and 71(!!).  It's clear those two seasons were clear stat compiling years. He had 4 years out of 20 that you could say were elite years(94-95 and 97-98).  In my opinion, he was a consistently good player but did not have the number of elite years that make you think he's among the best of the best. 

 

[terrisus]

 
I agree in principle, but team announcers are often directly employed by the teams, or by networks owned/controlled by said teams, or by networks where the teams are granted final approval of on-air personnel.

 
Of course, there's nothing stopping teams and newspapers from having the same ownership as well.
Like the Red Sox and the Boston Globe now.
Or, previously, the Cubs and the Chicago Tribune.

 

[BucketOBalls]

 
Or understating Lou Whitaker's case.
 
It's funny how some people (like Morris) seem to catch on as certain people's "cause" to get them elected, while other players just fade away.

 

Yeah. I can see an argument that Biggio isn't a first ballot guy(if you believe in that sort of thing), but I find it hard to believe that people would consider him not hall worthy at all. You can really find 10 people on this ballot better than him?
 
All the guys who got elected are better, and then it starts getting hairy.  I'll admit to being somewhat underwhelmed when I looked at the numbers, but I would still say he's easily worthy.
 
Looking at the numbers I just noticed how bad Schilling got stiffed. BBRef has him at 79.9 WAR, Fangraphs at 83.3.  BBRef has him less than 2 WAR behind Glavine in over 1000 less IP and he beats Glavine handily on fg. Not saying he's better, but him and Mussina getting less than half the votes Glavine did is pretty sad. You can give Mussina the "Blyleven effect" knock of never getting to do it on the big stage due to his team not being good when he was, but that doesn't apply to Schilling.

 

[hbk72777]

 
Curt Schilling got bigger over his career as well. DISQUALIFIED

 
 
Hell, he's still growing
 

 

[axx]

Blowing a couple hundred mill will do that to a guy.