And the fact that both death stars were blown to smithereens and lost. I don't mind saying that I prefer for Boston to WIN.
Green Zinger Tea - Kristaps Porziņģis 2023-24
- Thread starter InstaFace
- Start date
- Status
View: https://twitter.com/brohrbach/status/1798447006077358207
Ben Rohrbach: The Celtics’ injury report does not include Kristaps Porzingis. He is playing Game 1.
Ben Rohrbach: The Celtics’ injury report does not include Kristaps Porzingis. He is playing Game 1.
Any talk of starting Horford and bringing KP off the bench the first 2 games?
or minutes limits for KP?
or minutes limits for KP?
Not even on the injury report. Fantastic. Love that. Strike terror. I saw the first Dallas game in person in their house and the Cs handled them from the jump without KP. I get that they’re better, but I don’t respect the Mavs, and healthy KP makes it a lock for me.
That said, I think Luka Magic is real and it wouldn’t shock me if the Mavs pull out a couple horseshoes.
That said, I think Luka Magic is real and it wouldn’t shock me if the Mavs pull out a couple horseshoes.
My sense is that they will start KP. Here's why I think that:
- KP is used to starting;
- Al is used to coming off the bench.
- The rotations are used to those placements.
- It's easier to start warm and stay warm from warmups through opening minutes.
Plus:
- KP is better and it is the NBA finals.
- KP has been doing the scrimmages like the rest of the team.
- Rest shouldn’t be an issue for anyone
I think we’ve run out of things to talk about. Play the damn game!
If he can play he’s going to start I’d be pretty certain. I don’t think it’s so much of a minites restriction rather than shorter rotations with him and Horford and/or Kornet. I’m out non-blowouts this year KP was getting 30-34 mpg or so. Normally you’d want to stretch that out to 36-40 but under these circumstances with his lack of conditioning I’d expect 24-28 at least initially.
I think Luka turns into a big ole fat pumpkin this series. Minnesota was an excellent matchup for him. Boston is not. Kyrie will be a pain and we'll have to endure some hot streaks from the role players, but Celtics have plenty of their weaponry and are about to be at full mast for the first time in anyone in the media's memory. LFG.
He's absolutely gonna start (if that wasn't a given already, him not even being on the injury report clinched it), his ceiling is just so much higher than Horford's. Will he close the game is a better question - if it's close and he's looked rusty (or clearly worse than Al), he might be on the bench in crunch time.
Luka vs. Boston in his career:
11 g, 29.9 points, 8.8 rebounds, 7.5 assists, 50.2% FG, 43.5% 3ptFG
Luka last 2 seasons vs. Boston:
11/23/22 at Bos: 17-28 FG, 3-8 3ptFG, 42 points, 8 rebounds, 9 assists, -13 (Bos 125, Dal 112)
1/5/23 vs Bos: 7-23 FG, 0-6 3ptFG, 23 points, 9 rebounds, 3 assists, -20 (Bos 124, Dal 95)
1/22/24 vs Bos: 12-30 FG, 2-8 3ptFG, 33 points, 18 rebounds, 13 assists, -13 (Bos 119, Dal 110)
3/1/24 at Bos: 14-25 FG, 3-9 3ptFG, 37 points, 12 rebounds, 11 assists, -20 (Bos 138, Dal 110)
TOT: 50-106 (47.2%) FG, 8-31 (25.8%) 3ptFG, 33.8 points, 11.8 rebounds, 9.0 assists, -16.5 (Bos 127, Dal 107)
11 g, 29.9 points, 8.8 rebounds, 7.5 assists, 50.2% FG, 43.5% 3ptFG
Luka last 2 seasons vs. Boston:
11/23/22 at Bos: 17-28 FG, 3-8 3ptFG, 42 points, 8 rebounds, 9 assists, -13 (Bos 125, Dal 112)
1/5/23 vs Bos: 7-23 FG, 0-6 3ptFG, 23 points, 9 rebounds, 3 assists, -20 (Bos 124, Dal 95)
1/22/24 vs Bos: 12-30 FG, 2-8 3ptFG, 33 points, 18 rebounds, 13 assists, -13 (Bos 119, Dal 110)
3/1/24 at Bos: 14-25 FG, 3-9 3ptFG, 37 points, 12 rebounds, 11 assists, -20 (Bos 138, Dal 110)
TOT: 50-106 (47.2%) FG, 8-31 (25.8%) 3ptFG, 33.8 points, 11.8 rebounds, 9.0 assists, -16.5 (Bos 127, Dal 107)
JJ and Bron talked about how the metrics indicate that blitzing Luka is the best way to defend him, but my gut and these numbers say it may be practical to just let him get his? Stay home on the guys behind the arc, guard your yard, and live with the rest.
I don't think you want to "let" anyone get his points, as that implies not to make him work for it. But maybe guard him one-on-one with rotating defenders (no problem with any of Horford, Tatum, Brown, Jrue, or White on him at times) and concentrate the bulk of the D on shutting down the rest - that does seem like a reasonable formula.
I think the numbers show that the Celtics can survive Luka going off - I mean, his average game over the last two seasons vs. Boston has been incredible - nearly 34 points, 12 rebounds, and 9 assists - but the Celtics have stomped the Mavs all four games.
I think the idea is not to double and limit everyone else as much as possible. Luka can only score so much.. and if you work him relentlessly on D his legs are going to get tired.
I just want the Cs to stay in front of him and not bite on any of his fakes.. with his knee there’s no reason to think he really wants to drive.. contest every outside shot without fouling… make every shot a tough one.
I think we see a repeat of the second regular-season game, where the eye test tells us he was bad but he puts up 35-15-12 games. And rather than people reconciling that, and concluding that PTS-REB-AST doesn't tell us how good a player is, the narrative will quickly shift to "Luka was great but he had a worse team."
Basically, it doesn't matter how gourd-like he looks, he's gonna put up empty stats and he will be celebrated for it.
And for a little side tangent, the rebounds is the one that really grinds my gears. He just stands around on D, doesn't contest, and that leaves him in good position to get rebounds if the open guy misses. And he gets celebrated for it! At least when Westbrook was compiling rebounds he'd move for them and put some effort in.
They're also going to hammer the angle, "The West was so much harder than the East, they just had nothing left." No credit for Boston, and no blame for Luka. Honestly, what would his stat line need to be for the pundits to pillory him? Sub 20 points? Under 8 assists and boards? What would the talking heads do with an inefficient 18-7-4 line from Luka over the course of the series?
And I totally agree about rebounds -- not only does his "I'm guarding the other team's worst perimeter shooter" put him in a good spot to get easy ones, his teammates also defer to him because that's a thing in the league, letting the superstar get the cheap boards. Very few of the rebounds Luka gets are contested, although to be fair, it does seem like he fights for the ball in the lane at key moments (close and late). Anyway, at least with Luka it makes sense for him to get the easy rebounds since he's going to bring the ball up anyway.
I believe that JJ said that blitzing Luka in the playoffs yielded .67 points per possession (I've seen this a couple of times on the internet to I think I heard it correctly).
Seems to me that if a defense was holding the Mavs to anywhere near .67 ppp, these coaches would have been a little willfully blind not to run it every time. There's got to be more to that stat.
Don't know about the specifics of this stat, but I think people generally forget that these stats are so situation specific.
Teams are likely blitzing when they have 2 defenders that would be good at it, the other personal on offense makes it advantageous, the other 3 defenders are well positioned etc. It's never as simple as just "do this and it's going to be wildly successful".
I saw somewhere that the Celtics starting 5 almost never blitzes, for whatever reason. Maybe an adjustment and more blitzing is the way to go, but there was obviously some reason for their strategy all season, and it's not obvious to me they should just entirely abandon it to "pre adjust" to what Luka might do.
In the end, I expect a mix of D and some adjustments as the series goes on. Might depend on how the Mavs role players are playing.
Yes, the Cs have the lowest percentage of blitzes in the league. It was 1% in the playoffs (cite) and I think 3% during the regular season (this is off the top of my head).
According to Lowe, MIN gave up .72 ppp when Gobert blitzed Luka compared to 1.26 ppp per drop. (Cite.) While I absolutely get that defenses depend on personnel, it seems to me that with that large of a disparity, if I were coaching MIN, I'd explore the boundaries of what my defensive personnel could do and blitz Luka until that ppp number got substantially higher.
(Also, that's just about MIN - I don't expect BOS to blitz Luka unless Luka is really destroying them for 1/2 a game - but BOS has way better defenders to defend Luka in PnR than MIN did.)
But what do I know?
Thanks, I turned off coverage a few days ago & try to peek my head in here once a day. Wasn't sure what the plan was for being out for 5 weeks.
With or without KP I still think Boston handles business.
I said this in the gamethread. I was convinced he would shoot well tonight. Guys coming back often go off the first day back then a bit of a struggle. I expect he will have cold shooting game in game 2 or 3, but he looks healthy and will be still be a big presence on d.
For awhile, it was like the Mavs hadn’t heard he was returning tonight.
I obviously know that’s not true, but Kidd’s gotta be staring at the ceiling tonight thinking, “WTF do we do about that??”
They have to get more than Luka going that will be his main concern. It looked like the plan was to be physical and fight him for the high post spot.
And then he just kept just sorta tossing it in over his man’s head. I actually laughed at a few of them, it was legit funny.
Yes I was thinking this tonight in the first half. I wonder if there may be less of that affect with two days off between each game to regroup.
That run back block at the end of the first after the Tatum turnover ….holy shit! Looks pretty healthy and confident to me. This is just soul crushing stuff for Dallas.
Possession at the 0:50 mark
View: https://youtu.be/LchUHEx21hk?si=WJaokHmd1cI5FJJe
Possession at the 0:50 mark
View: https://youtu.be/LchUHEx21hk?si=WJaokHmd1cI5FJJe
I don't think there will ever come a time where I'm not amazed by those deep KP 3-pointers where it looks like he just flicks his wrist and it goes in.
We haven't seen KP in awhile, so I had kind of forgotten how impactful he is around the rim on defense. Was quite a diffrence last night.
Are they going to start Al all series? Fresh Al looked great switching on Luka (who, despite the media slurping is not a quick guard like Mitchell, Garland, Herro, or Halliburton).
Conversely, by not starting KP, you minimize his minutes having to defend Luka, where he's not as good in space as Horford is.
Conversely, by not starting KP, you minimize his minutes having to defend Luka, where he's not as good in space as Horford is.
This is just me gushing about G1 and being a prisoner of the moment, but: I kinda like the psychological edge of bringing him off the bench, McHale-style. The C's have so many competent offensive weapons that they want to establish at tip-off, it makes some sense to hold one of them back. I don't know if pro basketball players think like this, but I like to imagine that it also sets some fear in the opponent, like, "Oh no, we're already down by a couple of buckets early and THAT GUY is getting set to check in??"
For me it's less that, and more just maximizing Al vs. Luka minutes, and minimizing KP vs. Luka minutes.
If Al can play 30 minutes a night (with a lot of off days in the series) and just go all-out switching Luka actions, things could get rough for Dallas.
That's a great callout. Wouldn't be surprised to see some substitution gamesmanship once Kidd figures it out, which would also be awesome if it messes with Luka's rest. Luka already looks so pink at times that he's only missing a shamrock tattoo and a Dunkins regular in his hands. KP looked less gassed last night and he hadn't played NBA basketball in 39 days (they said that a few times on the broadcast lol).
KP's 7 minutes played in the first quarter of last night's game were delightfully dominant. 11 points on 4-5 shooting including 1-2 from 3 with 3 rebounds and 2 blocks. The box score line while impressive does not do justice to how good he was.
He entered the game at 7:17 in the 1st quarter. Soon after he checked in Doncic converted a heavily contested layup to put the Mavs up 15-14. from there Boston went on a 23-5 run to close out the quarter.
He entered the game at 7:17 in the 1st quarter. Soon after he checked in Doncic converted a heavily contested layup to put the Mavs up 15-14. from there Boston went on a 23-5 run to close out the quarter.
- At 6:04 KP contests Derrick Jones Jr's 3PA which results in a miss and a defensive rebound for Jrue
- At 5:41 KP bothers Derrick Jones Jr's 4 ft 2PA which results in a miss, KP grabs the rebound
- At 5:24 KP draws a shooting foul on Luka, KP hits 2 FTs
- At 4:54 KP hits a 13 ft jumper over 6'3" Jaden Hardy
- At 4:22 KP disrupts PJ Washington's rim run and JT grabs the rebound on the miss
- At 3:55 KP grabs the rebound on Luka's missed 3PA
- At 3:26 KP contests Luka's 3PA which misses and Hauser grabs the rebound
- At 2:52 KP beats Lively off the dribble for a dunk
- At 2:36 KP contests a Jaden Hardy layup attempt, JB grabs the rebound
- At 2:21 KP posts up 6'5" Josh Green and converts a 16 ft jumper
- At 1:17 KP boxes out Daniel Gafford freeing JT for an easy rebound on Kyrie's missed jumper
- At 1:09 KP drills a 3 from 27 ft
- At 0:58 KP blocks Kyrie's 2PA
- At 0:09 KP block's Josh Green's dunk attempt
At the very end of this clip, KP seems to indicate he's coming off the bench again:
View: https://twitter.com/malika_andrews/status/1799840978570031380
I'm very ok with this. It somewhat limits their ability to have Luka pick on him, it enables KP to just destroy their perimeter bench guys, and Al has really been flowing with the starters.
Agreed. And KP is much more likely to provide an offensive and emotional spark off the bench than Al. And if the Celtics start out well, then Dallas has to deal with a fresh all-star talent off the bench as their starters are starting to get fatigued.
In yesterdays interview I believe he said that he was on a minutes instruction as well.
I thought Joe specifically said before game 1 that he wasn't on a minutes restriction? I think the only reasons he didn't play more in game 1 (just 21 minutes) were partly because he was clearly not in game shape, and partly because the game wasn't close in the 4th quarter. If KP said differently since then, that'd be kind of a bummer.
Horford matches up really well against Dallas starters.
KP on a minutes restriction & coming off the bench makes all the sense in the world.
CJM can loosely play KP the last 6 minutes of each Quarter and keep it to 24mpg.
KP is a complete headache for the MAVs bench
KP on a minutes restriction & coming off the bench makes all the sense in the world.
CJM can loosely play KP the last 6 minutes of each Quarter and keep it to 24mpg.
KP is a complete headache for the MAVs bench
Why fix what ain't broke?
A guy coming in off the bench to fill it up isn't something we really have had this year, but we do now.
A guy coming in off the bench to fill it up isn't something we really have had this year, but we do now.
- Status