Greatest play in Patriots History?

InstaFace

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The tackle to prevent the Titans from getting that TD that would have tied the game with no time remaining?
As with Kull's misunderstanding earlier, the maximum WPA for a last-second game-tying play (i.e. even if you were at effectively 0% beforehand) is 50%, because you then go to overtime which has to be regarded as a 50-50 outcome. Same is true for a game-winning play from a tied position, because the status quo from before the play was still a >=50% chance of victory. The only way you get over 50% is by seizing last-minute victory from the jaws of defeat, or vice-versa.

As linked earlier in this thread, Hal Smith's 3-run HR to re-re-take the lead in 1960 Game 7 is the highest championship-probability-added play in MLB history, it had a 64% WPA within the game. Came in the 8th inning. Mazeroski's walk-off came from a tied position, so its WPA was only 37%. Speaking of which, just reading about that game is as intense an experience as any game I've ever watched live, just like reading the play-by-play still makes my jaw drop. 2004 ALCS Game 5 is still the biggest heart-pounding sports experience of my lifetime. But nearly 70 years later that 1960 game looks an absurd heavyweight slugfest on paper, so I can only imagine how it must have felt watching it live.
 
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Kull

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Which added a greater WPA, Millar’s walk, Roberts’ steal, or Mueller’s single? If I’m reading Baseball Reference correctly, Millar’s walk added 14%, Roberts’ steal added 11%, and Mueller’s single added 25%. So Roberts’ was the third most impactful play of the inning, to say nothing of the game (Ortiz’s walk off was 27%), the series, the postseason run, or the franchise’s history.

But I won’t begrudge anyone who wants to regard that steal as the greatest play in Red Sox history. It’s a subjective measure that includes more than the mathematical calculation of a play’s import. Things like momentum, moment in history, impact on franchise trajectory, individuals involved and circumstances unique to a particular play can be included, too. For some, those factors will only enhance Butler’s pick, but also could be considered to elevate Vinitiari’s field goal too. So, I’m not too high on using WPA to settle this argument.
It's funny, that you make the comparison, because that's exactly why I rate the Roberts steal as equivalent to the Vinatieri kick. WPA is an interesting stat, but it's limited to a single game. Maybe for other teams in other cities, where there haven't been dynasties or transitions from long periods of losing to an ongoing winning system, it may well be appropriate. But for me anyway, the Sox and Patriots are held to a different standard, and "greatest plays" in that context are those which have unique elements of drama and which change a franchise's trajectory.

Obviously the WPA proponents feel differently, but trying to shut off debate by waving a number around isn't very convincing to those who don't accept it as the be-all and end-all.
 

moretsyndrome

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As with Kull's misunderstanding earlier, the maximum WPA for a last-second game-tying play (i.e. even if you were at effectively 0% beforehand) is 50%, because you then go to overtime which has to be regarded as a 50-50 outcome. Same is true for a game-winning play from a tied position, because the status quo from before the play was still a >=50% chance of victory. The only way you get over 50% is by seizing last-minute victory from the jaws of defeat, or vice-versa.

As linked earlier in this thread, Hal Smith's 3-run HR to re-re-take the lead in 1960 Game 7 is the highest championship-probability-added play in MLB history, it had a 64% WPA within the game. Came in the 8th inning. Mazeroski's walk-off came from a tied position, so its WPA was only 37%. Speaking of which, just reading about that game is as intense an experience as any game I've ever watched live, just like reading the play-by-play still makes my jaw drop. 2004 ALCS Game 5 is still the biggest heart-pounding sports experience of my lifetime. But nearly 70 years later that 1960 game looks an absurd heavyweight slugfest on paper, so I can only imagine how it must have felt watching it live.
Off-topic, sorry, but that is incredible. I got vertigo from reading that box score. Also - ZERO strikeouts and 5 walks. I guess that's how a 10-9 game can wrap up in 2:36.

On-topic. Butler
 

biff_hardbody

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Christian Laettner against Kentucky is the only play I can think of that may come close to win probability-changing plays. Not exactly 4 major sports, but more or less the same thing.

As Instaface mentioned, it has to be a losing->winning shift (or in the case of Butler, a winning but only by a hair to a guaranteed win), not from a tie game. This eliminates hockey entirely. It also has to be a championship deciding game, which in MLB or NBA would have to be a game 7.

It's hard to match the degree of difficulty involved with the Butler pick in either baseball or basketball. No matter what, making a shot or hitting a home run is inherently more likely than an interception at the one yard line. Bird stealing the inbound pass is a good analogy, but that wasn't a championship deciding, or even series deciding, play.
 
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TheoShmeo

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I just like that Rivera’s error is part of the conversation. Suck it, MFYs.

Small correction: it was 2001.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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The Womack hit might not have been number 1 in championship win percentage added but if you combine WPA plus improbability, it to me is possibly the single most significant play in baseball history in terms of the outcome of the season. Lefties just didn't hit Rivera that year. .435 OPS and only 29 total bases in 146 plate appearances. And Tony Womack of all people. He had been a one-time all star before that and he's the kind of guy that is good to have on a team because he did a lot of the little things well like run and play defense, but he was a very light hitter in 2001 (OPS+ of 64) and hardly the guy you wanted up with RISP that year. And he hit a pretty good trademark Rivera cutter to lefties.

He gets completely lost because of the game winning hit by Gonzales. But Womack also had another huge hit that postseason that was almost as impressive as the double because of the circumstances. In the deciding game of the division series that year it was tied in the 9th and the Diamondbacks had first and third with one out. Brenley called for the squeeze and Womack failed to get it down and the runner was tagged out at the plate. Womack just missed it and couldn't even foul it off. But the runner on first advanced to second on the play. And two pitches later Womack drove him in for the series win. Just a great example of a guy not hanging his head.
 

InstaFace

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Off-topic, sorry, but that is incredible. I got vertigo from reading that box score. Also - ZERO strikeouts and 5 walks. I guess that's how a 10-9 game can wrap up in 2:36.

On-topic. Butler
Speaking further of that game - because we should - this is a great tradition, and almost enough to make you feel affection for Pittsburgh sports fans.

edit: here's an even better article, with more of the history of the event.
 

Bosox1528

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Wait, people are seriously trying to say that a 45 yard field goal to tie a game is better than a one in a million play that literally turned certain defeat in the super bowl into certain victory?

Yeah, sure there was snow, but as someone else pointed out, Janikowski made a 45 yard field goal in the same game. People make 45 yard field goals all the time, even in snow, but the Butler play might be the greatest play in the history of sports.

I remember some crazy stat that that slant play on the goal line had not been picked once that season until Butler. Vinateri kick was good, but I wouldn't even put it #2. Think you have to be off your rocker to put it #1
 

Bellhorn

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The Womack hit might not have been number 1 in championship win percentage added but if you combine WPA plus improbability, it to me is possibly the single most significant play in baseball history in terms of the outcome of the season.
Exactly... as I suggested upthread, there’s a decent chance that it really is #1 in CPA (beating out Hal Smith’s hit, which I had apparently underestimated, due to it happening in the 8th) when you adjust baseline WPA to account for the reality that they were facing peak Rivera.
 

axx

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Wait, people are seriously trying to say that a 45 yard field goal to tie a game is better than a one in a million play that literally turned certain defeat in the super bowl into certain victory?
I wouldn't call it certain victory for the Seahawks... even on the 1. Heavy favorites, yes, so the 80% WPA change seems about right. If they had scored on the play, there still would have been time for the Patriots to have done something.

And if you want to be anal, technically the game wasn't over after the Butler pick. Since the ball was on the one, there wasn't room to kneel.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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I wouldn't call it certain victory for the Seahawks... even on the 1. Heavy favorites, yes, so the 80% WPA change seems about right. If they had scored on the play, there still would have been time for the Patriots to have done something.

And if you want to be anal, technically the game wasn't over after the Butler pick. Since the ball was on the one, there wasn't room to kneel.
There was 20 seconds left and they had one timeout. If the Seahawks scored, the game was over.
 

Jimbodandy

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Wait, people are seriously trying to say that a 45 yard field goal to tie a game is better than a one in a million play that literally turned certain defeat in the super bowl into certain victory?

Yeah, sure there was snow, but as someone else pointed out, Janikowski made a 45 yard field goal in the same game. People make 45 yard field goals all the time, even in snow, but the Butler play might be the greatest play in the history of sports.

I remember some crazy stat that that slant play on the goal line had not been picked once that season until Butler. Vinateri kick was good, but I wouldn't even put it #2. Think you have to be off your rocker to put it #1
While I agree with you in principle, the impulse to ascribe enormous import to the snow bowl kick is understandable. It's basically the start of the dynasty.
 

snowmanny

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Still, it would be like calling a stolen base the greatest play in Red Sox history.
 

InstaFace

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Because I was curious, I went and looked up the top plays from Game 7 in 2016 (Cubs-Indians). Top play was Rajai Davis's 2-run HR off Aroldis Chapman in the bottom of the 8th that tied it for Cleveland (and after a scoreless 9th, sent it to extras). That had a 39% WPA change, nearly matched by Ben Zobrist's decisive strike in the top of the 10th (run-scoring double to LF, at 31% WPA), which also drove the eventual winning run to 3rd with 1 out.

Given that I spent the latter half of that game attempting to not have a heart attack, despite not even having a rooting interest, it's good to know that that game as a whole was probably one of the top-5 most dramatic (in terms of championship-probability swings, to say nothing of the human-interest side of it) games in baseball history. Davis's HR would have topped the most impactful play of the pre-1947 era (Tris Speaker off Christy Mathewson in Game 8 of the 1912 WS), and moreover, would rank 3rd in Grantland's post-1947 rankings, just ahead of Mazeroski's walkoff (37%), but behind Tony Womack (50%) and Hal Smith (64%). If the site had survived another year, they might have needed to update their list to include it.
 

williams_482

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Which added a greater WPA, Millar’s walk, Roberts’ steal, or Mueller’s single? If I’m reading Baseball Reference correctly, Millar’s walk added 14%, Roberts’ steal added 11%, and Mueller’s single added 25%. So Roberts’ was the third most impactful play of the inning, to say nothing of the game (Ortiz’s walk off was 27%), the series, the postseason run, or the franchise’s history.

But I won’t begrudge anyone who wants to regard that steal as the greatest play in Red Sox history. It’s a subjective measure that includes more than the mathematical calculation of a play’s import. Things like momentum, moment in history, impact on franchise trajectory, individuals involved and circumstances unique to a particular play can be included, too. For some, those factors will only enhance Butler’s pick, but also could be considered to elevate Vinitiari’s field goal too. So, I’m not too high on using WPA to settle this argument.
The Roberts steal is likely the most impactful stolen base of all time, at basically the upper limit of how important a steal can possibly be within the context of a game. It's also pretty much indisputable that it was both more likely and less impactful than the events that put him on or that ultimately scored him.

Weird, then, that the steal is what sticks in the mind from all that.

It's a pretty good comp for Vinatieri's Snow Bowl kick, one providing setup for an improbable tying stroke, the other delivering that tying blow. But whatever the degree of difficulty on that kick, it wouldn't have been attempted if Belichick through he had a better shot advancing the ball from a 4th and 9 (roughly a 30% proposition in that era) and only left them 50/50 to win the game. That has to be the core consideration, right? If we are judging on "momentum, moment in history, impact on franchise trajectory, individuals involved and circumstances unique to a particular play," then all of that except momentum is still inextricably bound to the probability and impact of the play itself, and you'll be hard pressed to say that momentum affects an overtime coin toss.
 

Deathofthebambino

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I think it's probably the Butler pick, but that kick by Adam in the snow was lunacy. First of all, he wasn't Adam, the HOF'er, Vinatieri at that point in time. In fact, he had missed 4 of his previous 5 kicks from 40-49 yards before that kick in the snow. The videos don't do it any justice either. As bad as the conditions looked on television, they were so, so much worse in person. It wasn't a few inches that fell during that game. The skies opened up in the 1st quarter, and if I had to guess, there was 6-8 new inches of snow by the end of the game. It was just dumping. Just watching Brady, and the receivers and running backs try to gain their footing, the fact that Adam was able to plant his leg, hold it in place, and make by far the biggest kick of his life at the time, when you could barely see the cross bar through the snow and wind....It simply doesn't get any harder than that.
 

reggiecleveland

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I am going with the kick for the same reason I go with Churchill not making peace as the key moment in WW2. Without the key event do any of the other more momentous events (the pick, the 28-3 comeback, Stalingrad, D-day) even happen?
 

tims4wins

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I think it's probably the Butler pick, but that kick by Adam in the snow was lunacy. First of all, he wasn't Adam, the HOF'er, Vinatieri at that point in time. In fact, he had missed 4 of his previous 5 kicks from 40-49 yards before that kick in the snow. The videos don't do it any justice either. As bad as the conditions looked on television, they were so, so much worse in person. It wasn't a few inches that fell during that game. The skies opened up in the 1st quarter, and if I had to guess, there was 6-8 new inches of snow by the end of the game. It was just dumping. Just watching Brady, and the receivers and running backs try to gain their footing, the fact that Adam was able to plant his leg, hold it in place, and make by far the biggest kick of his life at the time, when you could barely see the cross bar through the snow and wind....It simply doesn't get any harder than that.
Janikowski made a 45 yard FG going that same direction with under 2 minutes left in the 3rd quarter. So probably about 45 minutes in real time prior to the Vinatieri kick, something like that? Conditions don't look much better, take a look here. That has to factor into the equation here.

Kick is at 1:22:13. Janikowski makes it look much easier than AV. The conditions for AV were worse, it was snowing a little harder. But it is nearly the same kick. AV kick at 2:06

 

Ralphwiggum

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I am going with the kick for the same reason I go with Churchill not making peace as the key moment in WW2. Without the key event do any of the other more momentous events (the pick, the 28-3 comeback, Stalingrad, D-day) even happen?
Maybe it delays things a bit (although maybe not, I think BB had seen enough of Brady at that point and would have made the move regardless), but I refuse to buy an argument that one kick in a divisional round game in 2001 is the difference between two decades of dominance and 6 Super Bowl titles, and none.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Janikowski made a 45 yard FG going that same direction with under 2 minutes left in the 3rd quarter. So probably about 45 minutes in real time prior to the Vinatieri kick, something like that? Conditions don't look much better, take a look here. That has to factor into the equation here.

Kick is at 1:22:13. Janikowski makes it look much easier than AV. The conditions for AV were worse, it was snowing a little harder. But it is nearly the same kick. AV kick at 2:06

Sure, and Janikowski is arguably one of the 5 best kickers in NFL history, and was the 17th overall pick in the draft the year before, not to mention it's a whole lot less stressful making a kick in the 3rd quarter to give your team a 10 point lead than it is to make a kick when your team's season literally hangs in the balance.

In addition, at that point in time, it was questionable whether or not AV would even be on the team the following year. He was dreadful coming down the stretch of that season, he was dreadful in the playoffs in his career to that point (I think he had made one kick over 30 yards in the playoffs before that game, and was like 1-5 from 40+ in his playoff career). It was so improbable that he would make that kick, under those conditions, in that moment. It's easy to forget now that we look back on what he became, but at the time, there was very, very little faith from anyone in attendance or anyone watching that he would make that.

I still think the Butler play is bigger as far as Pats history goes, but at that time, that kick, with everything that preceded it, and everything that came after it, was about as big as it gets.
 

tims4wins

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So AV gets extra points because he wasn’t as good as Janikowski? That doesn’t compute to me. If it was Revis who had made the pick instead of Butler it wouldn’t make the play any less great or important IMO.
 

axx

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Maybe it delays things a bit (although maybe not, I think BB had seen enough of Brady at that point and would have made the move regardless), but I refuse to buy an argument that one kick in a divisional round game in 2001 is the difference between two decades of dominance and 6 Super Bowl titles, and none.
IMO that's why I think it's the Mo Lewis hit. You can make the case that Brady never gets a real shot if Bledsoe doesn't get hurt or benched at that point. They certainly wouldn't have made the playoffs that year.
 

snowmanny

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If we are formulating the biggest play around hypothetical outcomes following the play not happening then one of the biggest play in Patriots history was the Ben Drieth call. Without it the Pats probably win that game and probably win the Super Bowl, and all of history changes moving forward.
 

RG33

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In addition, at that point in time, it was questionable whether or not AV would even be on the team the following year. He was dreadful coming down the stretch of that season, he was dreadful in the playoffs in his career to that point (I think he had made one kick over 30 yards in the playoffs before that game, and was like 1-5 from 40+ in his playoff career). It was so improbable that he would make that kick, under those conditions, in that moment. It's easy to forget now that we look back on what he became, but at the time, there was very, very little faith from anyone in attendance or anyone watching that he would make that.
Just to add on Vinatieri, the below were his playoff stats going into the 2001 postseason:

6 for 9 on Field Goals overall
FG Made of 20,22,27,29,31,46
FG Missed of 46,47,48 (1 against Jax in 1996 in the AFCCG in a 0-0 game, the other two against Miami in 1997 where scores were 7-0 and 13-6)
12 for 12 on Extra Points

He didn't have a great track record (SSS and all) but I'm not sure I would call it "improbable" considering he hadn't kicked in the postseason in 3 years and had been an 80% kicker in the regular season in those 3 years (84 for 105) which was slightly below his career average of 84%.

He is 56 for 69 in his career in the postseason -- 81%.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/V/vinatada01.htm
 

TheoShmeo

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If we are formulating the biggest play around hypothetical outcomes following the play not happening then one of the biggest play in Patriots history was the Ben Drieth call. Without it the Pats probably win that game and probably win the Super Bowl, and all of history changes moving forward.
Ben Dreith and Grady Little.

One bullet.

Tough call.
 

mwonow

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Drieth, with a non-fatal wound that would still hurt 40+ years later...
 

reggiecleveland

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If we are formulating the biggest play around hypothetical outcomes following the play not happening then one of the biggest play in Patriots history was the Ben Drieth call. Without it the Pats probably win that game and probably win the Super Bowl, and all of history changes moving forward.
I was unaware of that play.I believe that was the first year the Superbowl was on TV in Canada, so I never watched the playoff games, plus I was 11. I learned something. I am a big sucker for the narrative fallacy, so change that call and perhaps the anxiety of Boston fans is reduced enough that the Sox are bit more relaxed in 77 and 78, and combined with the Cs win in 76, DOn Cherry is less uptight and has the right number of guys on the ice and there are 3 or 4 more titles during the 70s.
 

Al Zarilla

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Sure, and Janikowski is arguably one of the 5 best kickers in NFL history, and was the 17th overall pick in the draft the year before, not to mention it's a whole lot less stressful making a kick in the 3rd quarter to give your team a 10 point lead than it is to make a kick when your team's season literally hangs in the balance.

In addition, at that point in time, it was questionable whether or not AV would even be on the team the following year. He was dreadful coming down the stretch of that season, he was dreadful in the playoffs in his career to that point (I think he had made one kick over 30 yards in the playoffs before that game, and was like 1-5 from 40+ in his playoff career). It was so improbable that he would make that kick, under those conditions, in that moment. It's easy to forget now that we look back on what he became, but at the time, there was very, very little faith from anyone in attendance or anyone watching that he would make that.

I still think the Butler play is bigger as far as Pats history goes, but at that time, that kick, with everything that preceded it, and everything that came after it, was about as big as it gets.
What were other kickers at the time averaging re percentage made, from what distances, etc.? I think the numbers today are much better than in the early 2000s. Can’t research anything right now.
 

Red Right Ankle

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If we are formulating the biggest play around hypothetical outcomes following the play not happening then one of the biggest play in Patriots history was the Ben Drieth call. Without it the Pats probably win that game and probably win the Super Bowl, and all of history changes moving forward.
If the meteor had missed, then dinosaurs still rule the earth and there is no Patriots' dynasty.

I am going with the Chicxulub impact as the most important play in Pats' history.
 

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Hot take alert: the kick against the Titans in 2003 had a higher degree of difficulty than the Snow Bowl kick. The Snow Bowl kick was a greater play because a miss would have resulted in a loss, but it wasn't as hard of a kick.
 

Eddie Jurak

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To me the Butler pick, hands down. Win probability underrates it, because a team can try to punch it in from the goal line and fail. But that wasn't going to happen on this play. The pass was all but complete for a TD but for Butler.
 

InstaFace

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Hot take alert: the kick against the Titans in 2003 had a higher degree of difficulty than the Snow Bowl kick. The Snow Bowl kick was a greater play because a miss would have resulted in a loss, but it wasn't as hard of a kick.
Y'know, I wonder what Vinatieri would say, between the two kicks, if he were asked. He was definitely quoted as saying that it was like kicking a brick that night against Tennessee. Both had some tremendous degree of difficulty, though, no doubt.
 

tims4wins

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Y'know, I wonder what Vinatieri would say, between the two kicks, if he were asked. He was definitely quoted as saying that it was like kicking a brick that night against Tennessee. Both had some tremendous degree of difficulty, though, no doubt.
For sure. The Snow Bowl kick barely made it past the cross bar... and yet the Titans kick squeezed in by even less of a margin!
 

snowmanny

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Didn't he also have a kick against Pittsburgh in the 2004 AFCCG that was, at the time, the longest kick ever to one particular end of Heinz Field? (Ed: where the swirling winds made it difficult or something)
 

Deathofthebambino

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Just to add on Vinatieri, the below were his playoff stats going into the 2001 postseason:

6 for 9 on Field Goals overall
FG Made of 20,22,27,29,31,46
FG Missed of 46,47,48 (1 against Jax in 1996 in the AFCCG in a 0-0 game, the other two against Miami in 1997 where scores were 7-0 and 13-6)
12 for 12 on Extra Points

He didn't have a great track record (SSS and all) but I'm not sure I would call it "improbable" considering he hadn't kicked in the postseason in 3 years and had been an 80% kicker in the regular season in those 3 years (84 for 105) which was slightly below his career average of 84%.

He is 56 for 69 in his career in the postseason -- 81%.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/V/vinatada01.htm
He was a pretty good kicker from inside 40 yards at that point, but going into that game, he was 43-67 from 40-49 yards in his career, including the playoffs, for a 64.2% rate. He had been the starting kicker for 6 years when those playoffs started, and he went in missing 4 of his previous 5 from that distance.

Since that kick (and it's insane we're still talking about him as an active player), he's gone 120-145 from 40/49 yards for an 82.8% rate. That one kick literally changed the course of his career and the Patriots franchise. He may very well have been out of the league if he missed that kick, or at least trying out for other teams. The Patriots franchised him and gave him 5.3million in 2002 after his post-season heroics, which IMO, never happens if he misses that tying field goal against Oaklan. The guy had missed 1 out of every 5 kicks from 30-39 yards in his career to that point (44-55). If the Ghost was missing one out of every five kicks he tried from that distance, we would have run him out of town years ago.

Then he makes one kick, and he goes on a tear that lasts almost 20 years, including arguably 2 or 3 of the greatest kicks in football history.

Like I said, I still say the Butler pick is the biggest play in Pats history, but that kick by AV in the snow was not just a tying kick in some divisional game. I was there for the Titans game as well, and it was the coldest stadium I've ever been near, but the conditions against Oakland were like nothing seen before or since. There was literally 5-6 inches on the field where he was kicking from, the wind was coming from everywhere and you couldn't see. I still have no idea how he planted his leg and made that kick.
 

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If I read Curran right, I am impressed that Watsons tackle for what should have been a touchback was included in the top 100 list they were provided with.
 

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If I read Curran right, I am impressed that Watsons tackle for what should have been a touchback was included in the top 100 list they were provided with.
I think you are reading him correctly.

And he makes a great point about the record setting TD to Moss in the 2007 finale. Especially since they just missed on the previous play.