Grant “Corner Office” Williams

[radsoxfan]

Also, Grant played key minutes because of our terrible bench, not because he did anything particularly good last year.

I truly hope he turns into something useful but to this point he is just a fringe rotation guy (sometimes worse). May never be more than that.

 

[lovegtm]

What’s the median expectation of a 21st pick? Grant didn’t have some major Draft Day slide and hasn’t done anything yet to outperform his draft slot.

He was a successful college player with some skills that may translate to the NBA.

If he turns into PJ Tucker that would be a very good outcome, I don’t think this is too controversial. Most likely he will end up worse than that.

You’re acting as if his rookie season, in which he was already a very good defender, never happened.

This year is notable not because he didn’t improve, but because he’s massively regressed.

I think Cesar’s point is the bigger concern—he doesn’t seem to have as much mental edge as thought. Hopefully that part is an aberration, but something to monitor.

 

[radsoxfan]

I agree he was solid in D last year, though I think his role as contributor off the bench to an ECF team was more circumstantial than deserved based on talent.

I really like Grant, I hope he pans out. I’m definitely willing to admit this season is a tiny sample size and may not be too predictive of anything.

But more likely than not, he’s not going to end up a starter or high level reserve. Most picks in his range don’t, and I don’t believe he has shown enough at this point to expect otherwise.

If I had to pick, I’d bet out of the league in 4 years more than key contributor in 4 years. I admit both outcomes are possible.

 

[Philip Jeff Frye]

This thread is hilarious. Granite contributes to a victory over the Raptors in the playoffs in the bizarre bubble world and everybody is sky high about his future. Not that many weeks later, after a shortened preseason, he has a crappy start to this season and everyone is ready to cut him.

 

[benhogan]

I’d bet out of the league in 4 years more than key contributor in 4 years.

Were you thinking "out of the league in 4yrs" after the playoffs?

or did this occur to you after 5 games?

I mean no one is going to argue that he hasn't looked good for these 90 minutes.
and I'll save you the suspense. If he is THIS player he won't come close to lasting 2yrs.

 

[radsoxfan]

Yes, I was. Not out of the league necessarily, but I wasn’t thinking he’s destined to have a 10+ year career as a key contributor either.

He’s a 3 year college player, 22nd pick in the draft, had a mediocre 1st season overall and was atrocious on offense. Wasn’t named 1st or 2nd all rookie and wasn’t one of the 8 other players that got any votes (18 total overall players).

I think he’s more likely going to end up as a “fringe rotation/end of the bench/out of the league” guy than a starter or key contributor kind of guy. Most people in his situation don’t amount to much.

I like Grant and hope he beats the odds but it takes some serious green colored glasses to have big expectations for him at this point.

 

[lovegtm]

Going to put my foot down. The “green-colored glasses” thing really needs to stop. It’s a lame attempt to position oneself as “above the fray”, and has a poor track record to boot.

This isn’t about radsoxfan specifically AT ALL. It’s a dumb trope that is incredibly unfair to the posters here, most of whom are very balanced.

I started the discussion by saying that Grant looked like a fat slob. Others speculated on causes. Cesar noted that it presents some potential mental makeup issues to overcome. At the same time, he has legitimate positives, was young for his age, and played a decent amount as a rookie.

There’s nothing sophisticated, analytically, about always taking Eeyore positions and pretending everyone else is a homer. It’s a pose, and an extremely boring/lazy one at that.

 

[radsoxfan]

Settle down.... we’re on Celtics message board and I think some of you are overrating Grant. Maybe you are just overrating him and it has nothing to do with him being on the Celtics, fair enough. Being unintentioanlly biased towards your own teams’ prospects is also a possibility, it happens to everyone.

I certainly am more than happy to be high on Celtics players. I love what I see from Pritchard and to a lesser degree Timelord, maybe I have green colored glasses on too sometimes.

I take no pleasure in saying a certain Celtic is overrated by people on here, and certainly hope I’m wrong about Grant. Seems like a great kid and I hope he turns out to be an above average NBA player. I just think that odds are unfortunately not im his favor at this point.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

This thread is hilarious. Granite contributes to a victory over the Raptors in the playoffs in the bizarre bubble world and everybody is sky high about his future. Not that many weeks later, after a shortened preseason, he has a crappy start to this season and everyone is ready to cut him.

Indeed. There is a lot of jumping to conclusions here.

I started the discussion by saying that Grant looked like a fat slob. Others speculated on causes. Cesar noted that it presents some potential mental makeup issues to overcome. At the same time, he has legitimate positives, was young for his age, and played a decent amount as a rookie.

I'd pump the brakes on the mental makeup issues. This has been nothing if not the strangest season in recent NBA memory, what with the paused season, the bubble, the short offseason.

On top of that the team itself has changed, with the arrival of a new big (Thompson), the departure of Hayward, and the unavailability of Walker. The Celtics themselves are still figuring things out and Williams role has changed as bigs are getting more minutes and Williams isn't playing C as much.

Settle down.... we’re on Celtics message board and I think some of you are overrating Grant. Maybe you are just overrating him and it has nothing to do with him being on the Celtics, fair enough. Being unintentioanlly biased towards your own teams’ prospects is also a possibility, it happens to everyone.

I think it is overrating him to say that he is a future starter. But you are on the other end of that spectrum when you call him a fringe player.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

I'd pump the brakes on the mental makeup issues. This has been nothing if not the strangest season in recent NBA memory, what with the paused season, the bubble, the short offseason.

I think when it comes to weight and conditioning, the short off season is just an excuse. With a longer off season, maybe he comes back to camp even more overweight. I don't know why people are so convinced that with a longer off season, he'd decide to use the extra time to get in shape and not eat some more.

Literally everyone here knows people who struggle with weight (even those who put in serious effort). People are really just glossing over it like it's a given he'll be ok. The guy has struggled with weight before. It's a reoccurring problem that has nothing to do with the short off season and he's struggled with weight long before becoming a C.

 

[DannyDarwinism]

I get being low on Grant as a prospect- he's really undersized and not particularly athletic, and those are two things that usually don't fly in the NBA. From what I've read, front offices were all over the place with him, with some having him as a second rounder due to those concerns. That's where Radsoxfan is, and it's worthwhile to question whether having a guy in Tucker, who is really a one-of-a-kind type player as a median-ish outcome mold, is wise even if one thinks that Grant is really similar at the same age. But for the people who are low on him because of how he has played recently, I just think people sort of forget how development works for 90% of NBA players-and 98% of non-lottery picks. Rozier's a guy who I think has a fairly typical positive outcome development curve- he was absolutely terrible his first two years, then started to show out in his third year, and continued to have ups and downs as the game slowed down for him and he became a decent NBA player.

Especially for a guy like Grant, who basically has had to change his entire game because how he played in college was never going to work in the NBA, going from a post player who basically ran the offense to a (hopefully) perimeter player who sets screens and sits in the corner while focusing on defense, there was always going to be a very steep learning curve. My belief and hope is that if Ainge believed in him enough to draft him, then as long as he's putting in the effort and showing progress, the organization will give him sufficient time to learn how to play this new game.

My only really quibble with anything Radsox has said is that I would be very surprised if PJ Tucker didn't have an 80 minute stretch where he looked overwhelmed guarding wings, even when he was older than Grant is now and playing for BC Donetsk, or Aris BC, or Bnai Herzliya Basket, or Brose Bamberg. If you take, what's essentially a 3 game sample of any player's career, you can find some really bad tape. Especially when they're playing with new teammates, and especially after a very weird year.

The conditioning issue is definitely a yellow flag for me. I agree with Cesar above. If Grant wants to look to Tucker as a role model, he should understand that at this stage, his career is on a knife's edge and if he isn't putting everything into it, he could end up spending the next 5 years bouncing around Europe too, and he might make it back. I get the sense that in the NBA there's a pretty strong ethos of "bust your ass, because there's always someone coming up to take your job", and if he doesn't internalize that, the draft and free agency can make us forget about him pretty quickly.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

I think when it comes to weight and conditioning, the short off season is just an excuse. With a longer off season, maybe he comes back to camp even more overweight. I don't know why people are so convinced that with a longer off season, he'd decide to use the extra time to get in shape and not eat some more.

For me it isn't about longer vs shorter per se, but more about expectations and routine, both of which have been flipped on their head this year in a way that is literally unprecedented in NBA history. The closest comparison - a work stoppage - doesn't quite capture the mess that was 2020 and even work stoppages are extremely rare.

Literally everyone here knows people who struggle with weight (even those who put in serious effort). People are really just glossing over it like it's a given he'll be ok. The guy has struggled with weight before. It's a reoccurring problem that has nothing to do with the short off season and he's struggled with weight long before becoming a C.

It is relatively rare for a rookie contributor to just fade out of the league. It happens but it is far from the usual thing. I don't get the impulse to write off a promising rookie 5 games into this of all seasons.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

It is relatively rare for a rookie contributor to just fade out of the league. It happens but it is far from the usual thing. I don't get the impulse to write off a promising rookie 5 games into this of all seasons.

When it does happen, it's because they ate themselves out of the league or injuries. We watched a player struggle with weight and conditioning not that long ago in Sully.

Grant Williams should attach himself to Semi's hip.

 

[Jimbodandy]

I get being low on Grant as a prospect- he's really undersized and not particularly athletic, and those are two things that usually don't fly in the NBA. From what I've read, front offices were all over the place with him, with some having him as a second rounder due to those concerns. That's where Radsoxfan is, and it's worthwhile to question whether having a guy in Tucker, who is really a one-of-a-kind type player as a median-ish outcome mold, is wise even if one thinks that Grant is really similar at the same age. But for the people who are low on him because of how he has played recently, I just think people sort of forget how development works for 90% of NBA players-and 98% of non-lottery picks. Rozier's a guy who I think has a fairly typical positive outcome development curve- he was absolutely terrible his first two years, then started to show out in his third year, and continued to have ups and downs as the game slowed down for him and he became a decent NBA player.

Especially for a guy like Grant, who basically has had to change his entire game because how he played in college was never going to work in the NBA, going from a post player who basically ran the offense to a (hopefully) perimeter player who sets screens and sits in the corner while focusing on defense, there was always going to be a very steep learning curve. My belief and hope is that if Ainge believed in him enough to draft him, then as long as he's putting in the effort and showing progress, the organization will give him sufficient time to learn how to play this new game.

My only really quibble with anything Radsox has said is that I would be very surprised if PJ Tucker didn't have an 80 minute stretch where he looked overwhelmed guarding wings, even when he was older than Grant is now and playing for BC Donetsk, or Aris BC, or Bnai Herzliya Basket, or Brose Bamberg. If you take, what's essentially a 3 game sample of any player's career, you can find some really bad tape. Especially when they're playing with new teammates, and especially after a very weird year.

The conditioning issue is definitely a yellow flag for me. I agree with Cesar above. If Grant wants to look to Tucker as a role model, he should understand that at this stage, his career is on a knife's edge and if he isn't putting everything into it, he could end up spending the next 5 years bouncing around Europe too, and he might make it back. I get the sense that in the NBA there's a pretty strong ethos of "bust your ass, because there's always someone coming up to take your job", and if he doesn't internalize that, the draft and free agency can make us forget about him pretty quickly.

I'm officially a DD stan. This post says it all perfectly.

 

[benhogan]

It may be a good time to revisit an independent assessment of Grant pre-draft.

https://theathletic.com/996385/2019/06/14/grant-williams-and-the-challenge-of-scouting-a-player-whose-role-will-be-different-in-the-nba/

 

[radsoxfan]

Good post DD. To clarify...my feelings about Grant aren’t primarily related to his play this year. Perhaps there is an unconscious recency bias from watching him bumble around out there, but my feelings generally are unchanged from the end of last season.

I just think his pedigree, draft position, and what he’s shown to this point makes him a likely fringe rotation/end of bunch guy. Like most non lottery picks.

Rozier is a pretty good recent Celtics example. I’d put him at a good bench player on a good team or starter on a bad team. Considering his draft position, I think he’s done better than expectations. Maybe an 80th percentile outcome? I think the most likely scenario for Grant is worse than that.

Just to rough ballpark some outcomes (of course usage depends on team so it’s not perfect). I guess this puts me “low on Grant” as others here seem to think a 50th percentile projection is a Rozier level career. I won’t be shocked.... but I will be pleasantly surprised by that.

90th percentile NBA starter
75th percentile valuable NBA bench player (6-8th man)
50th percentile fringe minutes (9-11th man)
25th percentile end of bench/fringe roster spot
10th percentile looking for passport

 

[slamminsammya]

I don't even think he has looked that slow? Lets remember we are talking about 5 games, and he played meaningful minutes in 4 of those.

I thought he looked good at least in the Milwaukee game and against the Pacers as I recall he had some blow bys by Oladipo who looks quick as ever. I scoured youtube for some clips of his from the past few games, all I could find were his box score highlights against the Nyets and at least in that game his personal fouls were a blocking foul on Harris where he looked like he was in great position, a reach in against Kyrie, and an intentional foul to stop a clear drive on I think Jeff Green who had beaten Carsen Edwards. He also did a good job getting a steal staying with a Jeff Green drive. Can people think of particular situations where he has looked slow this year?

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Good post DD. To clarify...my feelings about Grant aren’t primarily related to his play this year. Perhaps there is an unconscious recency bias from watching him bumble around out there, but my feelings generally are unchanged from the end of last season.

I just think his pedigree, draft position, and what he’s shown to this point makes him a likely fringe rotation/end of bunch guy. Like most non lottery picks.

Rozier is a pretty good recent Celtics example. I’d put him at a good bench player on a good team or starter on a bad team. Considering his draft position, I think he’s done better than expectations. Maybe an 80th percentile outcome? I think the most likely scenario for Grant is worse than that.

Just to rough ballpark some outcomes (of course usage depends on team so it’s not perfect). I guess this puts me “low on Grant” as others here seem to think a 50th percentile projection is a Rozier level career. I won’t be shocked.... but I will be pleasantly surprised by that.

90th percentile NBA starter
75th percentile valuable NBA bench player (6-8th man)
50th percentile fringe minutes (9-11th man)
25th percentile end of bench/fringe roster spot
10th percentile looking for passport

You aren't totally alone and I think people are piling up on you a little. I wouldn't be shocked if Grant Williams doesn't get a 2nd NBA contract. I think it's far more likely he gets a 2nd NBA contract from some team other than the C's and goes on to have a pretty unforgettable career, while giving the C's maybe one productive year. I think people vastly overrate his rookie season and how much he really contributed. I never got the love or the Draymond comparisons.

I didn't really have a strong opinion either way last year because rookies are gonna rookie, I'm not a huge college guy, and when he was on the court, he didn't look out of place. He also didn't look like a vet. He looked like a rookie getting a feel for the NBA who showed some potential and glimpses of what he could offer if everything goes right. He also looked like a guy who needs to be in tip top condition to hang in the NBA.

When I watched Carsen Edwards, I knew within like 2-3 minutes of real NBA action he was not going to be a productive NBA player and I took a lot of slack for it. To me, he just looked really out of place and even if his skill translated, he would still be a net negative. When I saw Waters, I saw a guy who had a path to the NBA but is far away and not very likely to get there. Langford I saw tons of potential in and a guy worth being patient with.

Nesmith has really only seen glorified summer league action this year so I have no opinion yet.

PP looks like a baller and the one rookie since Jayson Tatum to actually get excited about. He's playing 20+ minutes, looks the part, and is actually contributing in tangible ways.

I agree with your stance that basically anyone drafted outside of the lottery is most likely going to end up a fringe guy or a guy who doesn't end up contributing that much to the team that drafted them. That's why I never really understood getting emotionally invested in any of them. By they time they are decent, they are gone.

PP is the guy you get emotionally invested in. He's going to be giving us value for the next 4 years and it's not based on potential or squinting your eyes the right way. Yes, other rookies have had potential and plenty of upside to get excited about, but none of it has translated on the court for more than a short stretch or two.

 

[PedroKsBambino]

Good post DD. To clarify...my feelings about Grant aren’t primarily related to his play this year. Perhaps there is an unconscious recency bias from watching him bumble around out there, but my feelings generally are unchanged from the end of last season.

I just think his pedigree, draft position, and what he’s shown to this point makes him a likely fringe rotation/end of bunch guy. Like most non lottery picks.

Rozier is a pretty good recent Celtics example. I’d put him at a good bench player on a good team or starter on a bad team. Considering his draft position, I think he’s done better than expectations. Maybe an 80th percentile outcome? I think the most likely scenario for Grant is worse than that.

Just to rough ballpark some outcomes (of course usage depends on team so it’s not perfect). I guess this puts me “low on Grant” as others here seem to think a 50th percentile projection is a Rozier level career. I won’t be shocked.... but I will be pleasantly surprised by that.

90th percentile NBA starter
75th percentile valuable NBA bench player (6-8th man)
50th percentile fringe minutes (9-11th man)
25th percentile end of bench/fringe roster spot
10th percentile looking for passport

I agree and think is a helpful way to think about what he is and might be. People sometimes struggle to think probabilistically and that is challenging when talking about young players where a wide range of outcomes is quite viable---but also not equally likely.

Rozier is somewhere between 75-90% on your scale. He's a legit NBA starter, but probably only a 6th man-ish role on a really good team. I think it's very unlikely Grant is ever either of those. The PJ Tucker scenario puts him in this range, and while I agree it is possible he's a very unique case. Thrilled if it happens, but I think it's unlikely (so, to use your numbers, 10-ish% chance)

On the other hand, I think quite realistic to envision Grant as somewhere between 50-75% on your scale, an impactful reserve. That to me might make him a better version of Glenn Davis---more diverse skills and better longevity. I'd be thrilled if he plays the next four-ish years like that.

One of the challenges in assessing him is that in the playoffs and early this year they have tried to deploy him as a player at the 50-75% level already, primarily due to depth issues (Hayward/Romeo hurt in playoffs and gone/hurt this year). As I've said I would have brought in a vet wing to allow him time to develop and they chose to let him play to develop, jury is out both on whether can do so and whether it will help or hurt his development

The current version, to me, is somewhere between 25-50%. He is playable but only useful in very specific situations and when he's shooting well.

I think if he loses half a step and/or the jumper declines at all he drops to that 10% mark and will be out of the league. I am not predicting that, but think it's a fair assessment of his game.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Can people think of particular situations where he has looked slow this year?

My memory isn't what it used to be but he got beat by Kyle Anderson as mentioned upthread. He got abused by Sabonis (different kind of defense) in the first game. IIRC, Harris beat him off the dribble cleanly on Xmas Day. Then there was the last defensive play v. IND G1 where he and/or RWill had a breakdown in coverage.

I look way more at defense than offense when I watch and my impressions have been that he was more impactful defensively last year. Has he taken any charges (if I had to guess, I think he's taken one)?

 

[Eddie Jurak]

When it does happen, it's because they ate themselves out of the league or injuries. We watched a player struggle with weight and conditioning not that long ago in Sully.

OK. I think it is reasonable to identify that as a risk, but you seem to be going a lot further than that and calling it all but certain.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

OK. I think it is reasonable to identify that as a risk, but you seem to be going a lot further than that and calling it all but certain.

Not at all. I think people are going the other way and assuming he'll just play the weight off. He knows how to get into shape, he's done it before. I think it's more likely he plays himself into better shape this season than not. Just the risk is real.

 

[RetractableRoof]

In my haste to get on the bandwagon of underdog players, I've jumped on Grant's back a time or two. That might be where the extra weight has come from - or maybe he is a step slower due a back injury with regard to said jumping. That said...

As I recall, not too long ago there were stories of him attaching himself to Walker's hip (even living with/close by Walker?), and working on his game with him. That to me balances out any concern that he might not be willing to put in whatever effort or work is required to get over the top. It certainly indicates to me that he's not going to eat his way out of the league.

We don't know what training schedule or training recommendations the teams were left with as they exited the bubble or shortly thereafter. These are high end athletes, that were in absurd situations in the bubble and were given little down time before being asked to gear it back up. I'll say this - I wouldn't be surprised if the Celtics told the players to take an extended rest in order to let their bodies recover, after the bubble. They played a lot of games, in a short period of time - recovery is necessary. Maybe a young player took something like that too literal and had an extra meal or two. Who knows if he had an injury that didn't require surgery, but cost him workout time in the 8 second off season? The way the NBA has done the scheduling, they are shoehorning 2 partial seasons into essentially 1+ calendar years. That's a lot of wear and tear on bodies (young and old), and it would not surprise me to see players (and some teams) break down at the end of this years slog. Teams that didn't make the original bubble might have a weird advantage in this way later in the season. The equivalent of back to backs even though it's not. I think the teams that load manage their players the best are the smart ones, and this year more than most.

Smart is also being talked about as being thicker in the middle this year as well, and to me he's playing like someone with a back issue. He's been wearing a supportive (looking) piece around his mid-section at times. His minutes are a bit choppy for him. I think he is playing hurt to an extent - at least not 100% physically. These are humans out there, not robots. Speculating about floors and ceilings of young players is fun and the conversation is often enjoyable. Where it loses the fun or I just check out is the over analysis of whether someone got beat how many times in 5 games because they are carrying an extra x pounds - when it's most likely it was because of 35 other reasons related to one of: experience, mental fatigue, poor technique, or the fact that it's hard being a professional athlete in a sport with direct physical competition. YMMV.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

In my haste to get on the bandwagon of underdog players, I've jumped on Grant's back a time or two. That might be where the extra weight has come from - or maybe he is a step slower due a back injury with regard to said jumping. That said...

As I recall, not too long ago there were stories of him attaching himself to Walker's hip (even living with/close by Walker?), and working on his game with him. That to me balances out any concern that he might not be willing to put in whatever effort or work is required to get over the top. It certainly indicates to me that he's not going to eat his way out of the league.

We don't know what training schedule or training recommendations the teams were left with as they exited the bubble or shortly thereafter. These are high end athletes, that were in absurd situations in the bubble and were given little down time before being asked to gear it back up. I'll say this - I wouldn't be surprised if the Celtics told the players to take an extended rest in order to let their bodies recover, after the bubble. They played a lot of games, in a short period of time - recovery is necessary. Maybe a young player took something like that too literal and had an extra meal or two. Who knows if he had an injury that didn't require surgery, but cost him workout time in the 8 second off season? The way the NBA has done the scheduling, they are shoehorning 2 partial seasons into essentially 1+ calendar years. That's a lot of wear and tear on bodies (young and old), and it would not surprise me to see players (and some teams) break down at the end of this years slog. Teams that didn't make the original bubble might have a weird advantage in this way later in the season. The equivalent of back to backs even though it's not. I think the teams that load manage their players the best are the smart ones, and this year more than most.

Smart is also being talked about as being thicker in the middle this year as well, and to me he's playing like someone with a back issue. He's been wearing a supportive (looking) piece around his mid-section at times. His minutes are a bit choppy for him. I think he is playing hurt to an extent - at least not 100% physically. These are humans out there, not robots. Speculating about floors and ceilings of young players is fun and the conversation is often enjoyable. Where it loses the fun or I just check out is the over analysis of whether someone got beat how many times in 5 games because they are carrying an extra x pounds - when it's most likely it was because of 35 other reasons related to one of: experience, mental fatigue, poor technique, or the fact that it's hard being a professional athlete in a sport with direct physical competition. YMMV.

Yeah, all that weight didn't affect Pablo Sandoval either.

Sorry, but the NBA has the best athletes in the world so yes, being overweight is one of the huge reasons he is getting beat on the court. Why he is overweight is none of my concern nor do I care. He is getting paid millions, poor guy.

edit: Grant Williams can also be overweight and a workout warrior. Being overweight doesn't mean he has a bad work ethic. It could just as easily be diet.

 

[128]

It's easy to see that Grant Williams is struggling on the court, but physically he doesn't look much different to me now than he did last season. Do we know for a fact that he's carrying extra weight?

I'm pretty sure Tristan is a little heavy, though. At least I hope that's why he's struggling to finish around the basket.

 

[lovegtm]

It's easy to see that Grant Williams is struggling on the court, but physically he doesn't look much different to me now than he did last season. Do we know for a fact that he's carrying extra weight?

I'm pretty sure Tristan is a little heavy, though. At least I hope that's why he's struggling to finish around the basket.

Also worth noting that a lot of the league is having conditioning and consistency issues. I should probably give everyone involved more of a pass, given how shittily short the offseason was, and how physically/mentally demanding competitive basketball is...

...but then I see Bae Jaylen killing everyone out there, and I want no more excuses!

 

[Cellar-Door]

I don't know if Grant is overweight, I will say that he looks slow, and guys like him who are on the bottom end of the explosive athleticism scale for their position have a lot less margin for error.

The more concerning thing to me though is he's not making good reads or decisions, so it isn't just a case of maybe the quick turnaround hurting his conditioning, he's also just looking less locked in mentally, the whole team is, but he's been particularly bad.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Marcus Smart was also the 6th pick in the NBA draft and has way more talent than Grant ever will.

I get why people make the comparison but it's like comparing a Ferrari to a Fiero.

Smart can get away being at 90% effectiveness, Grant doesn't have much margin for error.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

The more concerning thing to me though is he's not making good reads or decisions, so it isn't just a case of maybe the quick turnaround hurting his conditioning, he's also just looking less locked in mentally, the whole team is, but he's been particularly bad.

It's interesting because according to his BRef advanced numbers, his per 36 stats are similar to last year and while his USG% is moderately up (11.6 to 12.6) his TO% is down (17.6 to 10.1).

That being said, I think we've all noticed a regression on the defensive end. As the most common 5 man units have him playing with TT, maybe there's a disconnect between the two of them.

 

[Cellar-Door]

It's interesting because according to his BRef advanced numbers, his per 36 stats are similar to last year and while his USG% is moderately up (11.6 to 12.6) his TO% is down (17.6 to 10.1).

That being said, I think we've all noticed a regression on the defensive end. As the most common 5 man units have him playing with TT, maybe there's a disconnect between the two of them.

Well I think the thing on that is.... his offense was terrible last year outside the playoff run and has returned to his regular season form. I do think this year also, teams have realized that he's not a threat and are essentially not defending him at all, and that's hurting the overall offense (-20 pp100 for his on/off). Nobody respects his shot or his ability to drive, they just sit off and choke the space out of the offense.

His regular season value last year came from being a pretty good defender and that's where the slippage is this year. I don't think it's TT, I think it's probably as simple as he's a bit off the pace and teams are hunting him. I mean the most obvious failure game for him was when Doug McDermott was just roasting him off the dribble. That's not a team issue, that's glacial feet.

 

[HowBoutDemSox]

It's interesting because according to his BRef advanced numbers, his per 36 stats are similar to last year and while his USG% is moderately up (11.6 to 12.6) his TO% is down (17.6 to 10.1).

That being said, I think we've all noticed a regression on the defensive end. As the most common 5 man units have him playing with TT, maybe there's a disconnect between the two of them.

I wonder if he'd be better paired with Timelord, so that he has a better shot blocker protecting the paint behind him if his man blows by him, as seems to be happening.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

I wonder if he'd be better paired with Timelord, so that he has a better shot blocker protecting the paint behind him if his man blows by him, as seems to be happening.

Not really.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/willigr01/lineups/2021
Some of the worst Robert Williams lineups are with Grant Williams though. Of course, that's the case with everyone.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/williro04/lineups/2021

 

[slamminsammya]

Not really.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/willigr01/lineups/2021
Some of the worst Robert Williams lineups are with Grant Williams though. Of course, that's the case with everyone.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/williro04/lineups/2021

Its hard to have an NBA offense in 2020 where you have two guys who are total non threats to shoot or create their own offense.

 

[RetractableRoof]

Granite had a solid game tonight. 14 points in 24 minutes, 3 of 4 on 3s, took a couple (I think) of charges against a very athletic Raptors lineup. He turned the ball over a bit, and there were a couple of sequences where he seemed to think he was a point guard, but all in all a good showing. I'm sure he'll have other bad games this year, but I was encouraged by his play tonight. Must have been all that weight he lost between the end of the last game and the beginning of this one. Really made a huge difference in his performance tonight

 

[lovegtm]

Granite had a solid game tonight. 14 points in 24 minutes, 3 of 4 on 3s, took a couple (I think) of charges against a very athletic Raptors lineup. He turned the ball over a bit, and there were a couple of sequences where he seemed to think he was a point guard, but all in all a good showing. I'm sure he'll have other bad games this year, but I was encouraged by his play tonight. Must have been all that weight he lost between the end of the last game and the beginning of this one. Really made a huge difference in his performance tonight

He definitely looked like himself defensively again, which makes the past 2 weeks even weirder. One thing that has always impressed me about good Grant: he contests so well at the rim for his size. That was on display a couple times tonight.

He also is looking more competent offensively this year, even when he's been awful on D.

 

[benhogan]

Not really.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/willigr01/lineups/2021
Some of the worst Robert Williams lineups are with Grant Williams though. Of course, that's the case with everyone.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/w/williro04/lineups/2021

Great, we're looking at 5 minutes of adv analytics of 5 man combos to assign individual blame.

No one was saying Grant has looked good 5 games into his season. BUT let's check back after we get 50-60 mins of floor time data before casting aspersions.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Great, we're looking at 5 minutes of adv analytics of 5 man combos to assign individual blame.

No one was saying Grant has looked good 5 games into his season. BUT let's check back after we get 50-60 mins of floor time data before casting aspersions.

Literally all the Grant Williams combos were the worst on the court. That is not 5 minutes of basketball.

 

[benhogan]

Literally all the Grant Williams combos were the worst on the court. That is not 5 minutes of basketball.

Yes again, Grant played poorly his first 5 games this year hence ALL his combos would look bad.

5 minutes of data with Grant/TL proves nothing going forward. Talk about a "small sample size". I'd like to see them teamed together on the 2nd unit to see how they do going forward

 

[lovegtm]

If Grant plays like he did to open the year, he's bad, and will have a bad plus/minus. If he plays like he did last night, he's good, and will have a good plus/minus.

Don't think there's much to suss out of the data here that the eye test isn't giving 50x more clearly.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Yes again, Grant played poorly his first 5 games this year hence ALL his combos would look bad.

5 minutes of data with Grant/TL proves nothing going forward. Talk about a "small sample size". I'd like to see them teamed together on the 2nd unit to see how they do going forward

No but he asked for the data, and then you criticize me for giving it to him.

Like, no shit it isn't a sample size.

 

[benhogan]

No but he asked for the data, and then you criticize me for giving it to him.

Like, no shit it isn't a sample size.

Great let's cherry-pick his 5 bad games to open this season, with barely any practice or pre-season. AND let's ignore the 18 playoff games and entire rookie year of data.

Then compare him to Pablo Sandoval and Sullinger, because he has a few extra pounds after a screwed up pandemic off-season.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Great let's cherry-pick his 5 bad games to open this season, with barely any practice or pre-season. AND let's ignore the 18 playoff games and entire rookie year of data.

Then compare him to Pablo Sandoval and Sullinger, because he has a few extra pounds after a screwed up pandemic off-season.

I'm sorry the data doesn't say what you want it to. It's almost as if data is unbiased, but it's my fault it says Grant Williams has sucked over the first 5 games. That's all it says. That he sucked for the first 5 games. You are the one extrapolating it into more. I also didn't compare him to Pablo Sandoval. I used Pablo Sandoval as an example for saying "Being overweight isn't the reason for..."

I know though. Saying people have to actually be in good shape to play in the NBA is a crazy statement and weight definitely doesn't affect athletic ability at all.

I guess it's also not fair to call out people for coming into camp out of shape.

It's not hard to stay in shape and exercise. You are making excuses.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

I'm sorry the data doesn't say what you want it to. It's almost as if data is unbiased, but it's my fault it says Grant Williams has sucked over the first 5 games. That's all it says. That he sucked for the first 5 games. You are the one extrapolating it into more. I also didn't compare him to Pablo Sandoval. I used Pablo Sandoval as an example for saying "Being overweight isn't the reason for..."

I know though. Saying people have to actually be in good shape to play in the NBA is a crazy statement and weight definitely doesn't affect athletic ability at all.

I guess it's also not fair to call out people for coming into camp out of shape.

It's not hard to stay in shape and exercise. You are making excuses.

It's fair to call him out for 5 bad games and for coming to camp out of shape. You seem to be setting the rest of his career aside and judging him solely on those things, while not recognizing any mitigating factors. If that is how you want to roll, that's fine, but I doubt you will find a lot of agreement here.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

It's fair to call him out for 5 bad games and for coming to camp out of shape. You seem to be setting the rest of his career aside and judging him solely on those things, while not recognizing any mitigating factors. If that is how you want to roll, that's fine, but I doubt you will find a lot of agreement here.

Not really. I don't think the rest of his career is all that good either. I think he'll be fine physically, fwiw. He's already shown the ability to get in shape and the dude is unbelievably strong. In my experience, people with elite physical skills like to show off those elite physical skills. He'll be hitting the weights hard again.

He's like pretty much every other fringe NBA guy, his career depends on him becoming an acceptable 3 point shooter.

I've always hated Semi too. I like him right now. Why? He's hitting his 3 pointers. If that stops, he's the guy we were all fine with cutting.

 

[benhogan]

I'm sorry the data doesn't say what you want it to. It's almost as if data is unbiased, but it's my fault it says Grant Williams has sucked over the first 5 games. That's all it says. That he sucked for the first 5 games. You are the one extrapolating it into more. I also didn't compare him to Pablo Sandoval. I used Pablo Sandoval as an example for saying "Being overweight isn't the reason for..."

I know though. Saying people have to actually be in good shape to play in the NBA is a crazy statement and weight definitely doesn't affect athletic ability at all.

I guess it's also not fair to call out people for coming into camp out of shape.

It's not hard to stay in shape and exercise. You are making excuses.

Very good. I'll check back in after another 5-game sample size, because that will tell us a whole lot

Better yet lets have Grant and TL play together for a few months and use the data then to see how that combo is faring

 

[Cellar-Door]

A 5 game sample is very small.

Of course a bigger sample doesn't help much since outside an 18 game sample in the bubble, Grant hasn't been very good.

Grant may turn out great (well not really, but NBA player solid), but he was awful the first 5 games, and he was an awful offensive player as a rookie but vaguely competent defensively.

I see nothing wrong with looking at his first 5 games and saying... "hey this matches how bad he was much of last year, but with worse defense" as a comparison to the eye test, which also indicated that he was awful the first 5 games.....

I really don't see why people are worked up. Grant was bad, Grant may continue to be bad, or he may become less bad, but the idea that either the stats or eyetest commentary for his start to the season are unfair or biased is silly.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Very good. I'll check back in after another 5-game sample size, because that will tell us a whole lot

Better yet lets have Grant and TL play together for a few months and use the data then to see how that combo is faring

A season's worth of "lineup" data isn't going to tell you a whole lot either, especially when it is 2 back ups getting 15-20 minutes a game and one of the backups isn't exactly Cal Ripken. The data isn't really all that useful to begin with.

And again, he asked "How has he looked with" not "how is he going to look with."

I'm also fine with Grant Williams getting minutes because he's 22. I want Semi to play more and I want him to do so at the expensive of 1 of or both of TT and Theis. I'm not sure who I prefer over the 2. TT loves his 3-10 ft shots that never go in but he's an elite rebounder and I think rebounding is underrated. Theis without a 3 point shot doesn't really do anything TT can't.

Until Kemba is back, I'd like Semi and TL to get bumped up to 25-30 minutes and Grant to continue getting 15-20. That could all be accomplished by simply cutting Theis down to 5 minutes or playing TT/Theis a combined 28 minutes instead of 44.


I don't like him but he's not Carsen Edwards or Tremont Waters. If Grant's shot develops, he goes from a guy who plays 15 minutes to a guy who contributes for 25-30. i don't think he get's there but I see the path to him offering positive value and it's as simple as hitting his 3 point shots. Whereas if everything goes right with Edwards and Waters, they'd be match up dependent and maybe on offense/subbed out for defense at the end of games.

 

[benhogan]

A season's worth of "lineup" data isn't going to tell you a whole lot either, especially when it is 2 back ups getting 15-20 minutes a game and one of the backups isn't exactly Cal Ripken. The data isn't really all that useful to begin with.

And again, he asked "How has he looked with" not "how is he going to look with."

I'm also fine with Grant Williams getting minutes because he's 22. I want Semi to play more and I want him to do so at the expensive of 1 of or both of TT and Theis. I'm not sure who I prefer over the 2. TT loves his 3-10 ft shots that never go in but he's an elite rebounder and I think rebounding is underrated. Theis without a 3 point shot doesn't really do anything TT can't.

Until Kemba is back, I'd like Semi and TL to get bumped up to 25-30 minutes and Grant to continue getting 15-20. That could all be accomplished by simply cutting Theis down to 5 minutes or playing TT/Theis a combined 28 minutes instead of 44.


I don't like him but he's not Carsen Edwards or Tremont Waters. If Grant's shot develops, he goes from a guy who plays 25 minutes to a guy who contributes for 25-30. i don't think he get's there but I see the path to him offering positive value and it's as simple as hitting his 3 point shots. Whereas if everything goes right with Edwards and Waters, they'd be match up dependent and maybe on offense/subbed out for defense at the end of games.

OK, I can get behind all that. We agree a lot more than we disagree.

I've got Grant developing that corner 3 by season's end, probably why I'm much higher on him than yourself. If he (or Semi) hit 38% on corner 3s that opens up the floor for JayCrew.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

It's fair to call him out for 5 bad games and for coming to camp out of shape.

I agree that it's fair to say that Grant had five bad games - whether eye test or statistics - but I disagree that it's fair to call him out for being out of shape. Simply because we don't know. I think - and didn't either Scal or Gorman say something about this - that GW physically looked a lot better last night. I doubt it's that he suddently got into shape so it's certainly possible what people think they see is just a camera angle or how the jersey fit.

BTW, I've not listened to this yet, but there's a website called "Mental Buckets" that had a podcast with GW back in July. From the blurb, I think part of it touches on his work routine. Here's the website that has a link to the podcast: https://www.upbtraining.com/blogs/news/mental-buckets-recap-grant-williams.

Thought someone might be interested.

 

[SoxJox]

Sorry, but the NBA has the best athletes in the world

Depending on how you're defining that, there's a world full of hockey, soccer, track and field athletes, and triathletes who might argue with you.

Now, back to our regularly scheduled program.