Grant “Corner Office” Williams

Jimbodandy

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Minutes played is not a great measure of quality. Our rotation, by quality and without including Gallinari, is roughly in the following order:

Tatum
Jaylen
Smart/Timelord
Brogdon/White/Horford
Grant
Pritchard
Kornet/Hauser

Grant is our 8th best player, not 5th.
We should be judging by value not quality. In baseball, your catcher might be your 15th best player, but you can't start 9 without one.

If Grant is fifth on the team in minutes, that means that his role is really important. That probably drops a bit this year if everyone is healthy and Ime plays a tad smaller, but I don't think that it's particularly material that we now have four guards that are better players than Grant.
 

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Forgive me if this is a dumb question as I know little of player evaluation, but is there consideration of situational value whereby Grant might be worth more to the Celtics because of their specific view of the Patriots. Like, after the Finals, a major theme here was making sure the team isn’t gassed next year.

In that vein, while Grant may be a role player, it seemed that a specific part of that role was taking a lot of punishment from the likes of Giannis and Embiid. I’m wondering if that ability alone, which saves someone else from the exertion and wear and tear, might offer some extra value to Grant beyond what his skill set would normally be evaluated at. Sorta like the “secret sauce” discussions there used to be on the main board; they need someone that does that, so does that make him less fungible?
 

chilidawg

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I get the queasiness with the $$$. Agree with the unexciting stuff and he's a bit annoying/brash (the youngest guy on the roster last season?) BUT I'd push back on "just another role player", and "replaceable" narrative.

Grant finished 5th in regular season minutes played. He also finished 5th in playoff minutes played last season. He is young enough (under the magical 25) to still see improvement.

With Gallinari out, TL's fragility and Al's age/load mgmt I wouldn't be shocked to see Grant end up in the top 5 in minutes played again this season.

It's a coin toss whether we see Horford on the roster beyond this season and Grant would be the best option to replace him.

After 10 years of being under the tax (& collecting that annuity) the team has skillfully set themselves to be over, but saving every million counts 3X.

11% of the cap for Grant is something Brad will probably go up to.
I know we've talked about this before, but I just don't see Granite as a replacement for Al.
 

Jimbodandy

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Forgive me if this is a dumb question as I know little of player evaluation, but is there consideration of situational value whereby Grant might be worth more to the Celtics because of their specific view of the Patriots. Like, after the Finals, a major theme here was making sure the team isn’t gassed next year.

In that vein, while Grant may be a role player, it seemed that a specific part of that role was taking a lot of punishment from the likes of Giannis and Embiid. I’m wondering if that ability alone, which saves someone else from the exertion and wear and tear, might offer some extra value to Grant beyond what his skill set would normally be evaluated at. Sorta like the “secret sauce” discussions there used to be on the main board; they need someone that does that, so does that make him less fungible?
I'm a Grantophile, but there's definitely something to that. Absent Grant, there would be a bit more damage wear and tear on some of the guys in his position group. And his position group more or less covers everyone who's not a ballhandler type. The good news is that it's easier to live without him for a bit, because the others can pick up the slack and cover his skill set quite nicely. But the bad news is that you would rather not wear down Al or Jayson bodying up bigger guys (not so much Embiid, but power forward types). Over the course of 100 games, that beating adds up. Marcus provides similar meat shield coverage. Those guys help spare marquee guys.
 

benhogan

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I know we've talked about this before, but I just don't see Granite as a replacement for Al.
We all love Horford. In order to get the best version of Al, at the most important moments (playoffs) Gallinari Grant will probably need to play TOP5 minutes again, this season.

SSS aside, the team was very effective when Grant played in his place (2nd most used line-up last season).

https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/advanced/?Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular Season&TeamID=1610612738

serious question: any other players we should keep an eye on to eventually replace Al Horford, when he retires or doesn't want to take a pay cut? Kyle Anderson is Horford-lite, but he went to the T-Wolves. Vanderbilt? PJ Washington? Collins? O'Neal?

Forgive me if this is a dumb question as I know little of player evaluation, but is there consideration of situational value whereby Grant might be worth more to the Celtics because of their specific view of the Patriots. Like, after the Finals, a major theme here was making sure the team isn’t gassed next year.

In that vein, while Grant may be a role player, it seemed that a specific part of that role was taking a lot of punishment from the likes of Giannis and Embiid. I’m wondering if that ability alone, which saves someone else from the exertion and wear and tear, might offer some extra value to Grant beyond what his skill set would normally be evaluated at. Sorta like the “secret sauce” discussions there used to be on the main board; they need someone that does that, so does that make him less fungible?
playoff Giannis punishment was brutal. Grant also guarded Durant, Bam, Jokic, etc this past season.

It not only allows our most skilled offensive players, JAYs, to avoid wear & tear BUT lets TimeLord roam free on D. While spreading the floor with Corner3 daggers.

^^^ or what @Jimbodandy said above ^^^
 

Imbricus

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playoff Giannis punishment was brutal.
Truth. In the playoffs, Giannis just likes to go through guys. And too often, the refs let him. That was hard to watch. I was so relieved to move on to the Heat just because I knew the level of physicality would come down a notch, and there was less chance of seeing half our bigs on crutches come the finals.

But is Grant worth $60m over 4 years? I'd pass. He strikes me as more of a 4/$40m guy right now, maybe 4/$44m. But I'm guessing those offers have been made, and rejected.
 

ugmo33

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serious question: any other players we should keep an eye on to eventually replace Al Horford, when he retires or doesn't want to take a pay cut? Kyle Anderson is Horford-lite, but he went to the T-Wolves. Vanderbilt? PJ Washington? Collins? O'Neal?

I know this has been discussed in other threads but this is the question I've been thinking about most this offseason. It really seems like Al is the rug that ties the room together. He basically allows the Cs to play Timelord since he can space the floor on O (can't play 2 non-shooters anymore) and he can defend the bulky guys allowing TL to roam. A big with +defense and +shooting is really hard to find.

I don't see anyone in the league who might be available who can do both of those things. It seems like the options are Grant, or a big wing like him that could credibly guard Embiid or else force TL to play like a true center sometimes.
 

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Minutes played is not a great measure of quality. Our rotation, by quality and without including Gallinari, is roughly in the following order:

Tatum
Jaylen
Smart/Timelord
Brogdon/White/Horford
Grant
Pritchard
Kornet/Hauser

Grant is our 8th best player, not 5th.
He may be our 8th best player, but those minutes are important. To me, it's like Tim Wakefield or some other reliable innings eater at 4.50 ERA -- volume play at league average quality has real value to most teams over the course of a season.
 

Cesar Crespo

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He may be our 8th best player, but those minutes are important. To me, it's like Tim Wakefield or some other reliable innings eater at 4.50 ERA -- volume play at league average quality has real value to most teams over the course of a season.
Right, but how much can you afford to pay your 8th best player in the NBA? It's a luxury.
 

Jimbodandy

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Right, but how much can you afford to pay your 8th best player in the NBA? It's a luxury.
It's not about 8th best player. It's about who does the job. It's about do you want Al and Tatum eating someone's back possession after possession.

We're in agreement that there's a limit. I just don't think that we pay guys based on RAPTOR.
 

sezwho

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It's not about 8th best player. It's about who does the job. It's about do you want Al and Tatum eating someone's back possession after possession.

We're in agreement that there's a limit. I just don't think that we pay guys based on RAPTOR.
Over the cap also means you don’t just get to spend that money on someone else.

In this case, isn’t 4x13 vs 4x15 just a matter of some tax $ anyway?

I don’t know what value Grant has in a sign and trade, but replacing him might be harder than it sounds.
 

Saints Rest

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It's not about 8th best player. It's about who does the job. It's about do you want Al and Tatum eating someone's back possession after possession.

We're in agreement that there's a limit. I just don't think that we pay guys based on RAPTOR.
I completely agree.

Putting it another way (and in response to Cesar Crespo), it's not about the value/cost of your 8th best player, but about the value/cost of all those minutes.
 

tbb345

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We all love Horford. In order to get the best version of Al, at the most important moments (playoffs) Gallinari Grant will probably need to play TOP5 minutes again, this season.

SSS aside, the team was very effective when Grant played in his place (2nd most used line-up last season).

https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/advanced/?Season=2021-22&SeasonType=Regular Season&TeamID=1610612738

serious question: any other players we should keep an eye on to eventually replace Al Horford, when he retires or doesn't want to take a pay cut? Kyle Anderson is Horford-lite, but he went to the T-Wolves. Vanderbilt? PJ Washington? Collins? O'Neal?
I’d add Wendell Carter to that list. Horford’s an incredibly unique and valuable player, it’s really tough to find guys like him that aren’t really important to their team or locked up to massive contracts
 

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View: https://twitter.com/SeanDeveney/status/1572017559502983170?s=20&t=Kfw407s2XV_HJR2LRJAb2w


But Boston can head off any issues going forward by giving Grant Williams an extension now. The consensus around the leaghad been than Grant Williams would get what Robert Williams got, something in the range of four years and $48 million, and maybe around $55 million with incentives.

Grant Williams will likely ask for more, though—four years and $55-60 million or so, according to rival team executives.

The Celtics are likely to pay that for Grant Williams, even if it knocks him a bit out of line with the rest of the team’s roster. The team and Williams might not be talking now, but sources say they soon will, and there will be a fascinating Grant Williams contract at the end of it.
 

Jimbodandy

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If that reporting is at all accurate, I'd bet they end up something like 52-54 on the base contract, with "you're happy if you end up paying them because it means he's a solid starter" incentives on top.
Yeah good-sized incentives would be awesome. Grant seems highly confident in his abilities and might be more concerned about the ceiling of his deal than the floor.
 

jezza1918

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This may be a dumb question - but per the 22/23 celts thread Im seeing ESPN ranked Grant #99 on their top 100 list going into this season. Obviously these lists are kind of absurd in the first place, but do you think they play any role whatsoever in contract negotiations? Obviously not in a "pay me like a top 100 guy" sort of way, but maybe a more broad "this is how Im viewed around the league" kind of way?
 

PedroKsBambino

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Not really, in part because on that list are all sorts of guys who are on rookie deals or other non-free market kinds of contracts.

I do think it speaks to the perception of him being "up" greatly over the past year, and that matters some. But Celtics and Grant's agent are (I believe) going to focus on specific player and contract comps, not really on any list anywhere. So (illustratively) Celtics will say "PJ Tucker got 3/$32 mil" and TL's contract and Bobby Portis ($12 mil/per) and Chris Boucher ($11 per)..and Grant's agent will cite deals like MItchell Robinson $15 mil per and possibly Lu Dort $16.5 per. or Lauri Markkenen at $16.8 per....and also note the rising salary cap.
 

Jimbodandy

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Not really, in part because on that list are all sorts of guys who are on rookie deals or other non-free market kinds of contracts.

I do think it speaks to the perception of him being "up" greatly over the past year, and that matters some. But Celtics and Grant's agent are (I believe) going to focus on specific player and contract comps, not really on any list anywhere. So (illustratively) Celtics will say "PJ Tucker got 3/$32 mil" and TL's contract and Bobby Portis ($12 mil/per) and Chris Boucher ($11 per)..and Grant's agent will cite deals like MItchell Robinson $15 mil per and possibly Lu Dort $16.5 per. or Lauri Markkenen at $16.8 per....and also note the rising salary cap.
It's like you're in the room!
 

PedroKsBambino

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I have not done a deep cap dive, but the other thing about Grant's extension is that as a practical matter there's no opportunity cost for Celtics to give him a bit more money, I suspect.

His salary will go up $8-$10 mil next year. But Horford's $26mil will go down a lot or fully disappear, so they are likely in ok spending shape even allowing for the impact of the repeater tax, high-level. They have a few smaller cap moves (PP?) which may happen but super high-level this doesn't seem like a case where giving Grant a little more is going to keep them from doing something else, or materially increase the tax bill.
 

chilidawg

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Horford with some nice things to say about Grant as well:

Horford also addressed Grant Williams’ offseason improvement and said his hesitation move against the Raptors “got us all in awe.” (No, Horford didn’t help him with that one.)
Williams has showed his versatility through three preseason games and appears ready to take another leap. With Robert Williams and Danilo Gallinari out, Horford and Williams will be even more critical for the Celtics.
“Grant’s a very smart player,” Horford said. “He continues to grow and learn. It’s pretty cool to see. You can tell he’s been working and he wants to show it.”


https://www.celticsblog.com/2022/10/10/23397410/al-horford-boston-celtics-chemistry-carried-over-practice-press-conference-blake-griffin
 

Imbricus

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Twitter saying:
"Grant Williams is believed to be seeking a four-year deal with an average annual salary of around $14 to 16 million, but the Celtics’ offers have fallen short," according to
@AdamHimmelsbach
So pretty much what people were speculating upthread, confirmed. That seems a bit rich. If he doesn't bend on that range, I don't think a deal is getting done by Oct. 17.
 

BigSoxFan

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Twitter saying:


So pretty much what people were speculating upthread, confirmed. That seems a bit rich. If he doesn't bend on that range, I don't think a deal is getting done by Oct. 17.
Yeah, TL got 4/48 with some incentives on top of and he’s far more valuable player than GW but obviously has more injury volatility, which impacted his deal. If the Celtics think 2021-2022 GW is what they’re getting for next 4-5 years, I think they’ll come close to meeting his price. It’s not an unreasonable ask.
 

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Yeah, TL got 4/48 with some incentives on top of and he’s far more valuable player than GW but obviously has more injury volatility, which impacted his deal. If the Celtics think 2021-2022 GW is what they’re getting for next 4-5 years, I think they’ll come close to meeting his price. It’s not an unreasonable ask.
But the RW who signed that extension had HUGE question marks around him, most notably his durability. At that point, he had played only 113 games over three seasons. I also recall that people wondered if he would ever be worth more on D that a guy who sold out to block every single shot (and faked shot).

GW has a MUCH higher floor than RW ever did in his first three years, and arguably just as high a ceiling. Read John Karalis’ take on GW’s upside if you don’t believe me.
 

BigSoxFan

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But the RW who signed that extension had HUGE question marks around him, most notably his durability. At that point, he had played only 113 games over three seasons. I also recall that people wondered if he would ever be worth more on D that a guy who sold out to block every single shot (and faked shot).

GW has a MUCH higher floor than RW ever did in his first three years, and arguably just as high a ceiling. Read John Karalis’ take on GW’s upside if you don’t believe me.
I read that piece but I don’t really agree that GW’s ceiling is as high as a healthy TL. Clearly, a “healthy TL” is likely never going to be a reality at this point but in the moments when he is mobile and quasi pain free, he is a DPOY talent. He literally changes how teams try to attack the Celtics. I like Grant but he can’t touch that kind of impact, IMO. I also think it would be foolish to not lock him down if the gap is a couple million / year.
 

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I read that piece but I don’t really agree that GW’s ceiling is as high as a healthy TL. Clearly, a “healthy TL” is likely never going to be a reality at this point but in the moments when he is mobile and quasi pain free, he is a DPOY talent. He literally changes how teams try to attack the Celtics. I like Grant but he can’t touch that kind of impact, IMO. I also think it would be foolish to not lock him down if the gap is a couple million / year.
I agree with you. NOW. But pre-extension signing, the idea that TL could be a DPOY candidate was wishful thinking at best.
 

BigSoxFan

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I agree with you. NOW. But pre-extension signing, the idea that TL could be a DPOY candidate was wishful thinking at best.
Certainly, but his athletic profile always teased serious upside if the lightbulb ever turned on, which it thankfully did (but damn that knee). But it makes sense that Grant wants more than what TL was willing to accept and, quite frankly, I’ll be kind of surprised if the Celtics don’t lock him in at $14-16M / year, if that’s what it takes.
 

tbb345

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Theres never been a single minute of their NBA careers where Grant’s ceiling was even close to Time Lords. That’s completely ridiculous
 

PRabbit

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Has anyone seen anything regarding how much the cap is going up in the next few years, or is it just conjecture at this point? GW at 4/55 to 60 would be more than worth it NOW, nevermind operating with 15-25% more space to work with.
 

lovegtm

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Has anyone seen anything regarding how much the cap is going up in the next few years, or is it just conjecture at this point? GW at 4/55 to 60 would be more than worth it NOW, nevermind operating with 15-25% more space to work with.
It's been discussed extremely extensively in this thread.
 

Imbricus

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Last night was a good example of why I wouldn't want to pay Grant Williams $14-$16 million a year. He looked stubby and ground bound against a long and athletic team. A couple of those Raptor shots, Grant held his position well, but his man just extended long arms around him for a layup.

Plus, he looks like he came into the season out of shape. I think anyone signing him has to deal with the real possibility that his weight becomes a persistent issue. I don't think he'd get huge, like Zion, but he looks bigger than he should be right now.
 

Light-Tower-Power

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Last night was a good example of why I wouldn't want to pay Grant Williams $14-$16 million a year. He looked stubby and ground bound against a long and athletic team. A couple of those Raptor shots, Grant held his position well, but his man just extended long arms around him for a layup.

Plus, he looks like he came into the season out of shape. I think anyone signing him has to deal with the real possibility that his weight becomes a persistent issue. I don't think he'd get huge, like Zion, but he looks bigger than he should be right now.
Yeah, I noticed the same thing. Actually thought to myself “uh oh, Grant looks a little big” when I was watching some of the media day interviews and it showed last night. That miss at the rim when he couldn’t jump more than two inches was tough to watch.
 

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Last night was a good example of why I wouldn't want to pay Grant Williams $14-$16 million a year. He looked stubby and ground bound against a long and athletic team. A couple of those Raptor shots, Grant held his position well, but his man just extended long arms around him for a layup.

Plus, he looks like he came into the season out of shape. I think anyone signing him has to deal with the real possibility that his weight becomes a persistent issue. I don't think he'd get huge, like Zion, but he looks bigger than he should be right now.
Yeah, I noticed the same thing. Actually thought to myself “uh oh, Grant looks a little big” when I was watching some of the media day interviews and it showed last night. That miss at the rim when he couldn’t jump more than two inches was tough to watch.
Line of the night from the game thread:

Grant was a 10-pack of Munchkins short on that layup.
 

Imbricus

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Yeah, for a supposedly smart guy, who I would assume has a smart agent, that was pretty dumb. He should come into camp in fighting trim, not 5-10 lbs. overweight.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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So Brandon Clarke just signed for 4 years and 52 million. How do you guys think he compares to Grant and does this set a price for a Grant extension?
Hopefully it sets a comp. HoopsHype had an article that there's an "impasse" - https://hoopshype.com/2022/10/15/sources-celtics-grant-williams-impasse-extension-talks/ - but to me, with the numbers discussed in the article (Cs not going above 12M-13M and GW wanting 14M-15M), seems like a deal should be made.

But it's really up to Grant.
 

mcpickl

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So Brandon Clarke just signed for 4 years and 52 million. How do you guys think he compares to Grant and does this set a price for a Grant extension?
In my opinion, that contract sets the absolute ceiling on a Grant Williams deal.

I still wouldn't even approach that offer if I'm Boston, never mind exceeding it.
 

The Mort Report

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I get that these guys get to where they are by being supremely confident in themselves, but if Grant is asking for 14/year and the C's are offering 13/year, he's crazy not to take it. He obviously has an idea what his actual value is with what he's asking, so I think it'd be crazy to turn down a guaranteed 52 million over 4 years because you think you are worth 56. Lock in life altering money, and he's still young enough to get another decent contract. I'd get going to RFA for a guy like Ayton(even though he's miserable) because he was in a position to play into a big, almost max contract. But Grant isn't that level of a player, and I don't know how much he can really expand his value with how this team is constructed(besides a Jay injury). He could also regress shooting and is already looking at a slight minutes reduction due to the additions of Brogdon and to a much lesser extent Blake. I'm by no means trying to defend the C's/corporations, but dude, you can get paid right now, take it and, as long as you're smart with it, be set for life
 

benhogan

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Last day to sign an extension. I expect he'll come to his senses and take his $50MM.

Maybe he's taking his NBAPA job too seriously and wants to get every last $$$?