Right. Thats why if you are not in the top 10 or so you are looking at 2/12 max. Top 20 cost controlled catchers have value because they are cost controlled. If you are not, you need to have relative value (like top 5 hitter at your position) to be paid above that (Realmuto, Contreras. etc..) any less delta, and it makes sense to get a 2/12 guy. Teel might have turned into that, but that relative value is in a different universe than Crochet being cost controlled. Thats why its just inane to even discuss this.
Grade the Crochet Trade
- Thread starter Lose Remerswaal
- Start date
You're missing the point. You either need to develop a starting catcher or pay serious money to have one. You cant get a good starting catcher for $5-$6M. That player does not exist.
No one is signing either Higashioka or D'arnaud for their 36/37 seasons and expecting them to play 100+ games and be good (starting top 15 catcher). They are signing them to be backups or perhaps 1(b) guys (60-70 games rather than 40). For example, D'arnaud was signed by the Angles to back up OHoppe (a top 10 catcher). Higashioka is going to be on the short side of a time share with Jonah Heim.
The fact that catchers have a very difficult time with free agency doesnt mean that they are cheap. It solely means that realistically you need to (i) develop one; (ii) trade for one who is still relatively young; or (iii) pay for a top guy.
If you want to grab journeymen or a bunch of 35+ guys to play the position, that is a strategy as well, but you arent getting a top half of the league production; more like bottom of the league.
Luxury tax implications apply the year the deal begins, so there's no benefit to waiting to announce/sign it unless they wait until next November (to avoid 2025 implications)
There are only two arb years to buy out for Crochet. Estimates for this year have him at around $3M. Presumably next year he'd progress up to $8-10M unless he wins the CY or something. Odds are he won't get a jump beyond say $15M so let's round up to $20M for the next two years just to be safe. Then if we figure $30M a year for the free agent years, that puts five years at about $110M. 7/170 if the options are similar money. That seems like the floor for what he'd sign for. I'd wager it will take more.
Yes, I read somewhere that he is expected to get $3MM this year. He has made total of $2.8M over the last 4 seasons. The thought of never getting his "stuff" back may have crossed his mind during TJ surgery.
GC will be VERY motivated to get an extension done (so are the Sox).
I expect an extension will be less than what Fried got per season (if that's the market rate for an AS pitcher). Except the Sox will get it during Crochet's prime years.
- 1 year/$800,000 (2024)
- 1 year/$733,000 (2023)
- 1 year/$715,000 (2022)
- 1 year/$572,000 (2021)
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/7I14KAbZZxc
My hope would be for Brad/Zarren to run the Sox on a part-time basis. They've already heisted the NBA, let them have fun picking the pockets of MLB GMs
Thanks for the clarification. Guessing it will be announced soon then. Yeah about what I thought. probably something like 7/185 with a 25-30 signing bonus seems likely .
Yes to all the above, Mr. Hooper.I winced a bit at Finn's mentioning Beslow had traded from the prospect surplus given that the club's only catching prospect was included in the trade. but it's a good read. Nice "capable of haunting" reference, @Chad Finn.
Maybe I should explain where I'm coming from. My teams in other sports have in last couple of years made some of the worst moves of recent decades in their respective leagues. I don't have faith in my teams to make smart choices right now.
I haven't seen Crochet pitch so I have only seen his stats. 6+k/BB...is that repeatable? Nothing in his past shows that it is. His college stats don't look dominate. Did his high k/bb even help the team since he had the same win percentage (6-12 33%) as Cannon (5-10 .33%) despite Cannon having only 2k/BB and ERA that was almost a run higher than Crochet's ERA? He trailed Fedde in wins despite Fedde being traded in season. Fedde was 7-4 for Chicago. Crochet isn't like Carlton winning the Cy Young with 27 wins on a team that lost close to 100 games. Crochet put up good stats without the pressure of expectations to win. Can he handle expectations?
He has pitched about 360 innings since leaving high school. Is he able to be healthy and effective for a whole season? Will he have an inning limit or some other limitation that will keep the Red Sox from leaning on him down the stretch if they are in/close to playoffs spot?
I think these are lots of questions for a player people are calling an ace on here. I hope it works out.
Have a good night.
I gave the Crochet trade a 9, but that number will crash if he walks as a free agent. I’m still scarred from how Jon Lester ended up leaving, so I will be paranoid until the press conference announcing the long term extension.
I have heard many reasons to lose faith in a team in my 63 years on Earth. But the failures of other teams in different sports -- linked only by one's fandom -- has never before been one of them.
Is it a common ownership thing?
Perhaps John Henry made a mistake in letting Jurgen Klopp hire Kyle Dubas.
He pitched for one of the worst teams in history. W-L to guage a pitcher is basically meaningless, and in this case possibly as meaningless as ever. His Warp last year was the 4th highest of any pitcher. He is the youngest in Warp of any piitcher in the top 15, and only Skenes is younger in the top 20
https://www.baseballprospectus.com/leaderboards/pitching/
Every pitcher brings some risk. Last year at the trade deadline Chicago tried to trade him to the Yankees, and there was a well reported threat to not pitch in the playoffs if traded unless he was extended. At the time he was 6-6 3.02 ERA in 18 starts (averaging about 6 IP) 139K 20BB and 6 games with double digit K's for a terrible team (this is dominant) This is not by accident this is a young strong pitcher adding a 3rd and 4th + pitch
This type of top of the rotation talent is very hard to come by, and the sox haven't had it in a while.
No common ownership, just years of my rooting interests tending to having similar successes/failures at the same time.
Maybe it's hope more than reality, but this has the potential to be close to the Pedro Martinez trade. Time will tell....
mmm. I’d like to not go too crazy and compare it more to the Josh Beckett/Chris Sale trades. Both worked out enough to bring us a banner, but Pedro was an absolute unicorn and I wouldn’t want to put that pressure on Crochet.
I see an extension of the type we're anticipating to be mutually friendly. Crochet is likely well compensated for his 2 remaining years of control. Add that to whatever else is agreed upon and he, his children and their children will live extremely comfortable lives before he even toes the rubber for Boston. Parcel it out however you like, but I think of it as some of the later years being a bit front loaded with everything being guaranteed from day one. No extention only guarantees whatever is agreed to one season at a time until 2027.
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https://utsports.com/sports/baseball/roster/garrett-crochet/11815
I think it's definitely a question how he will hold up to multiple years of starting, somewhat more than other pitchers who have started consistently for longer.
Johan Santana is another example of a successful pitcher developed this way. But, it is unusual for a pitcher to not have many long outings / starts in college either. And if this page is to be believed he didn't rack up many IP in high school as well.
https://utsports.com/sports/baseball/roster/garrett-crochet/11815
I think it's definitely a question how he will hold up to multiple years of starting, somewhat more than other pitchers who have started consistently for longer.
One way of looking at it is he's got less miles on his arm. We've seen with Giolito and Sale and others that a pitcher is plenty reliable until very suddenly he's not at all, and mileage on their arms seems to be a giant factor.
IMO it's not certain that the fact that Crochet hasn't pitched much isn't in his favor.
I go back and forth on this. It doesn't mean fragility isn't a concern, either, just that I really don't know with him, or with any other pitcher, for that matter.
We'd have to add all of the private travel ball innings into the equation as well. The link mentions that he majored in nuclear engineering... is our boy wicked smart?
8. My favorite thing about this trade is that they were able to secure a top of the rotation arm without drastically increasing the likelihood of trading away the final arb year of a star player to get out from under an albatross Burnes or Fried contract. It also allows them more flexibility to extend any emerging young stars with less money tied up in old, declining pitchers.
That's an interesting topic for more discussion. In addition to wear-and-tear, the proliferation of travel ball *probably* means a proliferation of less-than-optimal coaching & training. OTOH-the coaching/training in pro ball, at all levels, is probably as good as it has ever been.
Bernie Madoff wishes he came up with a scam as effective as for-profit travel baseball. Where should we start the thread? I have hours of complaints that I'd be thrilled to post.
Yeah, that is surprising to me. Hes younger and a better player than both of the other 2/10 to 2/12 guys (albeit with a somewhat limited history). I'd much prefer him over either D'Arnaud or Higashioka.
Guess the market isnt buying him as a full time starting catcher. Thought they would based on the strength of last season.
Or hear me out. That is what he is worth. Like what Teel could be worth in a couple of years. All be it cost controlled. Kind of like the initial argument I made that you called laughable.
Agreed with all of this. Love that we got Crochet. I like the trade more now than I did before (@John Marzano Olympic Hero has a great post about why the original reaction was worse than it should have been).
The guy has crazy stuff and he’s young.
I guess, and this is just my opinion on the scale, a 10 would be if you replaced Teel with Bleis and Montgomery with Hamilton (and yes, this would never happened but that’s an A+ trade)
Not sure if anyone posted this anywhere, but this Heyman article claims the White Sox were looking for "two top-100-type" prospects, and the Yankees had been asked for Jasson Dominguez and George Lombard Jr., while the Mets were asked for Brandon Sproat and Jett Williams. This is where it really served the Red Sox to have a deep farm system — they could surrender two "top-100-type" players and still hold onto their best three prospects.
Obviously that is what he is worth, The market has spoken. That isnt a top 15 starting catcher deal though, which is how this all started.
I will completely own the market eval of Carson Kelly, but this isnt teams thinking this guy is a 3-4 win playerr. Its them saying they think hes a 1 win backup.
What are the luxury tax implications of an extension before the season starts? I believe this was asked upthread but not answered. I know back when the Sox extended Adrian Gonzalez it made sense to do it after the season started but I believe that's no longer a factor?
As best I can tell, it starts counting for luxury tax purposes for the season in which it goes into effect. I'm using this from Devers' deal as a comp where it was agreed to before the start of the 2023 season but didn't go into effect until 2024. Depends on what the player agrees to and how the deal is structured.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/01/rafael-devers-extension-goes-into-effect-in-2024-for-luxury-tax-purposes.html
So if Crochet and the Sox are able to find common ground on an extension (which I believe they will) then it would depend on if it's structured to begin in 2025 (in which case it would count against this upcoming season's tax) or in 2026 (the next upcoming season's tax). At present, per Cots, the Sox have about $64.75m left before LTT1.
In summation, it's for when the extension starts, not when it's agreed to.
The Sox are below the CBT threshold by a decent margin, so pending the addition of any other large contract, they can get Crochet signed this year and use the larger AAV number now when they have space to keep the CBT hit lower in subsequent years (when hopefully payroll increases).
They should have plenty of room for Crochet and another large deal, possibly two depending on the size of said deal.
For what it's worth, Cots updated some stuff, and they've now got the Red Sox at $65m before LTT1. If Crochet comes in around $25m this year, that should still leave them approximately $42.5m left (Crochet is projected to get $3m and is already added in as such on Cots).
I'm not trying to say two large deals will happen, just that they should have the room even if LTT1 is some manner of budget, especially if they get creative with other moves.
Those of you that our not happy with this trade are the same ones that want to go to heaven but don’t want to die!!
Redsoxpayrolls is higher than that, currently $51m under.
View: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zPx_cKCQ7TQjab2kPM4zIhEFSDxrTpLLIEZr2xh5E8g/edit?usp=drivesdk
View: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zPx_cKCQ7TQjab2kPM4zIhEFSDxrTpLLIEZr2xh5E8g/edit?usp=drivesdk
Not sure if that's implying that I don't like the trade or not @buttons, but for what it's worth, I gave it a 9 (and it will be a 10 once there is an extension).
It's the most impactful and interesting addition (and I'd personally call it the best) that the Red Sox have made during the off-season since signing JD Martinez prior to the 2018 season. I'm thrilled they did it.
(Thanks @simplicio, I can't access RSPayroll, so use Cots, but agree that RSPayroll is the best option).
It's the most impactful and interesting addition (and I'd personally call it the best) that the Red Sox have made during the off-season since signing JD Martinez prior to the 2018 season. I'm thrilled they did it.
(Thanks @simplicio, I can't access RSPayroll, so use Cots, but agree that RSPayroll is the best option).
Crochet is slotted to earn around 8-10 millionish over the next two years (assuming he stays healthy).
The 5/100 with 2 25M team options I suggested upthread would guarantee him 100M dollars (life-changing)
It would be essentially 30M a year for three years. - which is excellent money even on today's market.
It would allow the Sox to spread the luxury tax AAV over 5 years (20 mill a year now - while they are way below threshhold)
And we would be paying for the prime of his career - no wasted late 30yo seasons...
And even then - if he's successful - he'll still be able to go out and get another deal that would comprise a huge payday (ala what Fried just got)
It really is win/win and I'll be very surprised it doesn't happen later in the off-season once the Sox are finished making trades/signings.
The 5/100 with 2 25M team options I suggested upthread would guarantee him 100M dollars (life-changing)
It would be essentially 30M a year for three years. - which is excellent money even on today's market.
It would allow the Sox to spread the luxury tax AAV over 5 years (20 mill a year now - while they are way below threshhold)
And we would be paying for the prime of his career - no wasted late 30yo seasons...
And even then - if he's successful - he'll still be able to go out and get another deal that would comprise a huge payday (ala what Fried just got)
It really is win/win and I'll be very surprised it doesn't happen later in the off-season once the Sox are finished making trades/signings.
It would take more than that, and they'll give it to him. Silly not to. Think 7/200 with those 2 options being his.
Why would it take a ton more than that? He has plenty of injury risk. He's been an injured a lot in his career.
100 million dollars is life-altering money.
Your contract adds 5/190 - 37.5 million a year
There's injury risk on both sides. Offering 100 million means the Sox are taking a lot of that risk - and he knows that as well.
I think 150M ish for 6 years is in the neighborhood of what we'll see. AAV of 25M per.
Because if you let him become a FA in '27 he is looking at 10yrs +/ $400M + If you make him an offer now that highlights his "risks" you are pretty much guaranteeing that happens. You are in a position to lock him up for 5 years instead of 2 his ages 26-30 seasons with something like 5/140 plus 2 $30M player options. Those are to entice him to sign, and if all goes well will never be used.
He is a 26 year old ace you can lock up until he's 30 without paying for decline. That is why.
I do think that something people aren't taking into account, relative to Crochet and an extension, is how his career up to this point as a relief pitcher has really kept his earnings down.
Assuming Spotrac can be believed (and I have no reason to think otherwise) it's not like he's been Fried going from year to year with huge success as a starting pitcher early on in his career to prop up his earnings. He got a nice signing bonus, for sure, but has "only" made about $8m in his career up to this point, and will probably "only" be around $11m after his arbitration award this year, if it went to arbitration (which I don't think it would).
$11m is a lot of money in the real world, but in terms of baseball players, Fried surpassed that total alone with his contract in his 4th year (which brought him up to a career earnings of around $28m (factoring in his bonus). If the Red Sox offered him something along the lines of 5/$125m/$25m (options or not) he'd be kind of crazy not to take it. Fried got about $27.25m AAV, so $25m AAV might need to be bumped up a little, but at $25m you're talking very close to market value.
As mentioned, that would put him as a free agent at the same age as Fried is now, but with multi-generational wealth in the bank. This is a scenario where the idea of an extension at AAV market value (ish) and 5 years makes a ton of sense for both parties.
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/_/id/48366/garrett-crochet
Or, put another way, I'm right in line with about what @YTF is saying. Something with an AAV of around $25m and maybe there is a player option for the 6th year or some such. Again, Crochet has "only" made about $8m to this point, and going year to year would probably "only" be around $20m all in, assuming he continues to dominate.
Assuming Spotrac can be believed (and I have no reason to think otherwise) it's not like he's been Fried going from year to year with huge success as a starting pitcher early on in his career to prop up his earnings. He got a nice signing bonus, for sure, but has "only" made about $8m in his career up to this point, and will probably "only" be around $11m after his arbitration award this year, if it went to arbitration (which I don't think it would).
$11m is a lot of money in the real world, but in terms of baseball players, Fried surpassed that total alone with his contract in his 4th year (which brought him up to a career earnings of around $28m (factoring in his bonus). If the Red Sox offered him something along the lines of 5/$125m/$25m (options or not) he'd be kind of crazy not to take it. Fried got about $27.25m AAV, so $25m AAV might need to be bumped up a little, but at $25m you're talking very close to market value.
As mentioned, that would put him as a free agent at the same age as Fried is now, but with multi-generational wealth in the bank. This is a scenario where the idea of an extension at AAV market value (ish) and 5 years makes a ton of sense for both parties.
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/_/id/48366/garrett-crochet
Or, put another way, I'm right in line with about what @YTF is saying. Something with an AAV of around $25m and maybe there is a player option for the 6th year or some such. Again, Crochet has "only" made about $8m to this point, and going year to year would probably "only" be around $20m all in, assuming he continues to dominate.
Yep, sounds about right. I expect something like that for an extension also.
They have 2 years of control. I wouldn't expect the Sox to pay Max Fried market rate today, nor should they
He has already stated that he wants an extension to MLB last summer, no need to entice him by writing 5/140 (7yrs/200M)
We're probably headed towards a "Crochet Extension Expectation" Poll
Just to make sure that we're all on the same page, when you 3-4 are you including the 2 years of control that he has left?