Grade the Crochet Trade

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Teel is the only guy that will really hurt. Montgomery feels like a guy who could be replaced easily in the next draft- college kid who could be up to the ML club in 2 years.... or hopefully Bleis gets it together and unleashes his potential. The Sox have Abreu, Campbell and Rafaella locked in for a long time. Duran for another 3 seasons. That's an incredible predicament.... you've got a GG corner RF'er. A guy that some could argue was better than Soto last season (by some stats that are questionable, but they're there). The top ranked prospect in the game and a backup CF'er that would be an improvement on defense over that Duran guy.
But Teel hurts. But trades like this always do. I can't imagine giving it less than a 7 but even less than 8 seems weird to me.

 

[mwonow]

I gave it a 9. Only Pedro gets a 10, but this is a huge W in today's market. I don't care much about cost, you only get one guy on the mound in a big game, and I'd rather be competitive in big games than maybe someday have better depth in the field.

 

[Devizier]

Amazing binomial with mean at 8. Good work everyone.

 

[cantor44]

I gave it a 7. I mean, they need someone like Crochet. I'm glad he's on the team. Thing is, he has really one all-star caliber year in his career. He could become Chris Sale, but he ain't Chris Sale. With the very sizable prospect haul the White Sox got, you'd think Crochet DID have a record of a several all-star seasons. He does not. And he's had TJS. Teel was on a clear path to become the next starting catcher. And Montgomery - well, here is where it might get really painful. His college stats are dominant. He is extremely athletic, with a very high ceiling.

I think, if the team was already over the tax threshold, and/or this was a GFIN deadline deal in a season they were leading the division at the break, with a real shot to win it all, I'd get it. But there were/are quality arms to be had just for money, and the Red Sox have money. Just feel like they could have improved the team without having to give up any of their top 5 prospects. Ah well.

 

[Zupcic]

2018-2023 Crochet made a total (NCAA,milb,mlb) of 13 starts, if baseball reference is correct, so I don't expect him to stay healthy or be successful. The Sox gave up a lot for essentially a lottery ticket at SP.

 

[Diamond Don Aase]

What did you grade the Chapman signing?

Somewhere between 0.357 and 0.44.

 

[joe dokes]

2018-2023 Crochet made a total (NCAA,milb,mlb) of 13 starts, if baseball reference is correct, so I don't expect him to stay healthy or be successful. The Sox gave up a lot for essentially a lottery ticket at SP.

It's not predictive of anything going forward, but in those years he was mostly a relief pitcher. Until last year, when he made 32 starts.

 

[RG33]

I gave it a 7. I mean, they need someone like Crochet. I'm glad he's on the team. Thing is, he has really one all-star caliber year in his career. He could become Chris Sale, but he ain't Chris Sale. With the very sizable prospect haul the White Sox got, you'd think Crochet DID have a record of a several all-star seasons. He does not. And he's had TJS. Teel was on a clear path to become the next starting catcher. And Montgomery - well, here is where it might get really painful. His college stats are dominant. He is extremely athletic, with a very high ceiling.

I think, if the team was already over the tax threshold, and/or this was a GFIN deadline deal in a season they were leading the division at the break, with a real shot to win it all, I'd get it. But there were/are quality arms to be had just for money, and the Red Sox have money. Just feel like they could have improved the team without having to give up any of their top 5 prospects. Ah well.

So, you are comfortable projecting Teel as a starting C and Montgomery as a perennial all-star type, but not a 25-year old All-Star ace SP with the best xFIP in MLB as an All-Star ace #1 SP?

One of these 3 have actually done it.

 

[mikeford]

6 unless they extend Crochet before Opening Day.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

So, you are comfortable projecting Teel as a starting C and Montgomery as a perennial all-star type, but not a 25-year old All-Star ace SP with the best xFIP in MLB as an All-Star ace #1 SP?

One of these 3 have actually done it.

Past Performance isn't . . . . you know, you guys say that all the time.

btw, I'll be using your argument because it's better than anything I had

 

[Sam Ray Not]

I mean 90% of voters in the poll are rating it a 7 or better, that's not very crotchety.

I was talking more about the general vibe than the stats. And I couldn’t very well pass up an opportunity to say, “crotchety”! Crochet aside, that’s like the defining characteristic of SoSH.

 

[cantor44]

So, you are comfortable projecting Teel as a starting C and Montgomery as a perennial all-star type, but not a 25-year old All-Star ace SP with the best xFIP in MLB as an All-Star ace #1 SP?

One of these 3 have actually done it.

No, I'm not certain about any of these players. My point is they traded high ceiling prospects to get a high ceiling quality starting pitcher (with only a single season record of success) when they could have added all-star pitching simply by spending money. I do get dealing prospects sometimes, though especially if the team is right at the payroll threshold, or you need that key piece in a pennant run. So, my preference is to keep blue chips if there are viable alternatives out there. BUT - the trade could work out well - hope it does!

 

[Yo La Tengo]

No, I'm not certain about any of these players. My point is they traded high ceiling prospects to get a high ceiling quality starting pitcher (with only a single season record of success) when they could have added all-star pitching simply by spending money. I do get dealing prospects sometimes, though especially if the team is right at the payroll threshold, or you need that key piece in a pennant run. So, my preference is to keep blue chips if there are viable alternatives out there. BUT - the trade could work out well - hope it does!

If the Sox competitive window was the next two or three years, signing a big free agent like Fried might be a good move if it puts the team over the top. While the Sox could have added all-star pitching simply by spending money, none of the free agents line up with the team's timeline since the Sox look to be moving into a competitive window over the next 7 years, and that Fried contract would quickly become an albatross. Crochet's age and dominance fit the Sox timeline and he has the potential to be the best pitcher in baseball next year (I don't think any of the free agent options have that kind of upside).

 

[Cassvt2023]

I gave it a 9 all day long. LHP w/ top of rotation stuff, two years of control, open to an extension, 25 years old. Kind of a unicorn to be available in trade.

Kept Anthony, Campbell, Mayer and all of our ML roster.

Showed that Breslow is willing to be bold and aggressive to acquire high end talent at the expense of good, yet unproven prospects.

What's not to love about this?

 

[RG33]

No, I'm not certain about any of these players. My point is they traded high ceiling prospects to get a high ceiling quality starting pitcher (with only a single season record of success) when they could have added all-star pitching simply by spending money. I do get dealing prospects sometimes, though especially if the team is right at the payroll threshold, or you need that key piece in a pennant run. So, my preference is to keep blue chips if there are viable alternatives out there. BUT - the trade could work out well - hope it does!

Well, I think the difference is that Crochet represented something that was not available “simply by spending money”. A 25-year old #1 SP ace (and, yes, he only has 1 year under his belt, but he was arguably the most dominant pitcher in baseball last year) with two controllable years is wildly more valuable than giving out 8-year deals to 31-year old SPs with 800+ IPs of tread already on their tires. We know how those last 3-4 years likely end…….

The Red Sox will get the best of Crochet’s career likely — what that may be, we have to wait and see. But, based on his first 219 IPs in MLB, his floor seems really, really, really high.

 

[Nixon Now!!]

9 - I agree with everything Chad Finn said about this trade on Boston . com today. I also agree with Lose R that there's no need to rehash what's been said elsewhere. Now go sign Burnes & Teoscar.

 

[20Ks]

2018-2023 Crochet made a total (NCAA,milb,mlb) of 13 starts, if baseball reference is correct, so I don't expect him to stay healthy or be successful. The Sox gave up a lot for essentially a lottery ticket at SP.

Lottery ticket? Do you understand what throwing 150 innings of (actually 146 but he was shutdown) 6+ K/BB means? It means elite. Sale's was 5.77 last year
Also do you think evaluating a relief pitcher on games started is relevant?

He is a 25 year old cost controlled Ace who just had a dominant season for a historically awful team. What happened to this site?

 

[Harry Hooper]

9 - I agree with everything Chad Finn said about this trade on Boston . com today.

I winced a bit at Finn's mentioning Beslow had traded from the prospect surplus given that the club's only catching prospect was included in the trade. but it's a good read. Nice "capable of haunting" reference, @Chad Finn.

 

[nvalvo]

Sale also spent basically no time in the minors and started as a relief pitcher. The White Sox are weird.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

I went 9 as well, but that is with the assumption he is extended beyond the next 2 years.

I assumed as much and also have this as a 9. My only caution is not knowing exactly what the White Sox know about his physicals to not be the team that extends him.

 

[ten27oh4]

For those who gave a 9 or 10 what would you grade the deal if Teel were not included and Crochet signed a team friendly extension?

 

[joe dokes]

Sale also spent basically no time in the minors and started as a relief pitcher. The White Sox are weird.

Not the skipping the minors part, but the Orioles were big on that for awhile in the 70s. Doyle Alexander, Mike Flanagan, Scott Mcgregor, Dennis Martinez all di pretty significant pen time before joining the rotation.,

 

[simplicio]

For those who gave a 9 or 10 what would you grade the deal if Teel were not included and Crochet signed a team friendly extension?

It's okay for people to be happy, really. It is.

 

[Harry Hooper]

Not the skipping the minors part, but the Orioles were big on that for awhile in the 70s. Doyle Alexander, Mike Flanagan, Scott Mcgregor, Dennis Martinez all di pretty significant pen time before joining the rotation.,

Jim Palmer as a rookie was also mainly a reliever with the O's.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

For those who gave a 9 or 10 what would you grade the deal if Teel were not included and Crochet signed a team friendly extension?

Sounds like a 12.

 

[BaseballJones]

Lottery ticket? Do you understand what throwing 150 innings of (actually 146 but he was shutdown) 6+ K/BB means? It means elite. Sale's was 5.77 last year
Also do you think evaluating a relief pitcher on games started is relevant?

He is a 25 year old cost controlled Ace who just had a dominant season for a historically awful team. What happened to this site?

I agree with you, and yet there's nothing wrong with having concerns about depending on a guy to be your stud ace #1 starter who's never thrown more than 146 innings, and whose last 12 starts last year came with a 5.12 era and 1.40 whip.

 

[Yo La Tengo]

For those who gave a 9 or 10 what would you grade the deal if Teel were not included and Crochet signed a team friendly extension?

I don't think the deal would have happened if Teel was not included and I don't see any reason that Crochet will sign a team friendly extension. But if both of those things happened, I'd grade it a 15+.

 

[Cassvt2023]

For those who gave a 9 or 10 what would you grade the deal if Teel were not included and Crochet signed a team friendly extension?

I guess I don't understand the question. 9 and 10 are already the best scores. I guess in your bizarre and unrealistic scenario, i'd give it a 20?

 

[ten27oh4]

It's okay for people to be happy, really. It is.

Don't get me wrong, I am happy. A 7 or 8 is really happy in my opinion. 9 or 10 though? Seems like over the moon with delight.

 

[ten27oh4]

I guess I don't understand the question. 9 and 10 are already the best scores. I guess in your bizarre and unrealistic scenario, i'd give it a 20?

No, I just think those giving 9 and 10 are overvaluing the move.

 

[simplicio]

It's okay for people to be delighted too. That sounds even better.

 

[KillerBs]

Ultimately it doesn't really make sense to assess this deal without consideration of what happens with the extension.

If it is a a deal for just two years of Crochet, I think it is under water, mainly because I think the odds are better than even that Teel's first 6 years in the MLB will be worth more the next two years of Crochet.

However, if the trade also buys them a unique opportunity to tie Crochet up for another 4-6 years after 2025-26, and they take advantage of that opportunity, then it makes sense to me.

On a separate topic, I would have preferred to sign Burnes and keep Teel and Montgomery.

 

[Devizier]

For those who gave a 9 or 10 what would you grade the deal if Teel were not included and Crochet signed a team friendly extension?

This feels like a statistics question, like “What if {really improbable thing} happens?” It would be an outlier. And great, but not realistically going to happen.

 

[20Ks]

It's okay for people to be happy, really. It is.

I am having a lot of trouble understanding these people.

If you wanted to replace what the Red Sox gave up. :

Sign a top 15 free agent catcher for about 6M per
A high side OF prospect (probably your 3 or 4th best ----) Draft one this year in the 1st round
Good contact/little pop 23yr old middle infielder--- Umm rule 5, but do you really want to waste a roster spot since you have so many?
22yr old who had a decent season in double A with live stuff, but needs work.... ---- again draft .



Now for what the CWS gave up

25 year old pitcher that just put up a top 10 season----- You would be looking at something like 10/300+ If there was one that became available.

 

[RG33]

For those who gave a 9 or 10 what would you grade the deal if Teel were not included and Crochet signed a team friendly extension?

 

[ten27oh4]

View attachment 93145

Haha!

 

[mikcou]

I am having a lot of trouble understanding these people.

If you wanted to replace what the Red Sox gave up. :

Sign a top 15 free agent catcher for about 6M per
A high side OF prospect (probably your 3 or 4th best ----) Draft one this year in the 1st round
Good contact/little pop 23yr old middle infielder--- Umm rule 5, but do you really want to waste a roster spot since you have so many?
22yr old who had a decent season in double A with live stuff, but needs work.... ---- again draft .



Now for what the CWS gave up

25 year old pitcher that just put up a top 10 season----- You would be looking at something like 10/300+ If there was one that became available.

Its a very reasonable price to pay, but the top two rows are pretty laughably simplified. Top 15 catchers rarely are on the FA market and they certainly go for way more than $6M

Montgomery types are rarely available with a typical first round pick. For context hes a roughly top 50 prospect in baseball. Generally 5 or so guys a draft are quickly in the top 60 or so. Very unlikely that we can keep banking on them falling outside the top 10 (e.g. Teel and Montgomery); a unique combination of factors came together for those to occur.

 

[Don Buddin's GS]

My hope is that this trade is the Red Sox equivalent of the Celtics' Derrick White deal. When that transaction was announced there was much wailing and gnashing of teeth over the inclusion of a 2028 1st round pick swap as part of the package.

Who gives a fuck about that pick swap now?

 

[Big Papi's Mango Salsa]

9.

I strongly assume they have the parameters in place for an extension, and when that is announced, if the poll is still open, I'll be changing my vote to a 10 then.

 

[20Ks]

Its a very reasonable price to pay, but the top two rows are pretty laughably simplified. Top 15 catchers rarely are on the FA market and they certainly go for way more than $6M

Montgomery types are rarely available with a typical first round pick. For context hes a roughly top 50 prospect in baseball. Generally 5 or so guys a draft are quickly in the top 60 or so. Very unlikely that we can keep banking on them falling outside the top 10 (e.g. Teel and Montgomery); a unique combination of factors came together for those to occur.

LOL on nitpicking. It was simple because the ability to replace has such disparity

But on your points is there some catcher alternate reality I'm missing? Since less than15 catchers make $6m a year and thats including the 3 free agents that signed for around or over that this year.
I didn't understand the second nitpick so consider it a win for you.

 

[mwonow]

For those who gave a 9 or 10 what would you grade the deal if Teel were not included and Crochet signed a team friendly extension?

Same, it's all about Crochet. Return doesn't bother me, having one/more aces in the rotation is a prerequisite to winning (as the Sox have shown multiple times in the past 20 years).

I wish Teel and Montgomery great careers - Meidroth too, he's always been a binky of mine. But you can't out-prospect your way to a banner.

Re: the extension, I think that needs to be judged separately from the deal, The Sox just acquired the available guy most likely to top a rotation. Keeping him is literally another story. Post-Mookie, though, I think ownership will want to keep high-end talent in the house.

 

[jezza1918]

My hope is that this trade is the Red Sox equivalent of the Celtics' Derrick White deal. When that transaction was announced there was much wailing and gnashing of teeth over the inclusion of a 2028 1st round pick swap as part of the package.

Who gives a fuck about that pick swap now?

I should bookmark this post. Cut to spring 2028: Brown is on the downturn of career, Tatum is injured, Holiday/KP gone...someone in the Port Cellar will make an argument along lines of "actually we could've gotten someone not quite as good as white, still won a title (**hopefully more than one), and still have our first round pick this year. What was Brad thinking!!"

But yeah this trade is an 8 for me.

 

[LogansDad]

For those who gave a 9 or 10 what would you grade the deal if Teel were not included and Crochet signed a team friendly extension?

A fireable offense for the White Sox GM?

 

[mikcou]

LOL on nitpicking. It was simple because the ability to replace has such disparity

But on your points is there some catcher alternate reality I'm missing? Since less than15 catchers make $6m a year and thats including the 3 free agents that signed for around or over that this year.
I didn't understand the second nitpick so consider it a win for you.

I am not sure what you are looking at, but Danny Jansen (yes the backup that the Red Sox traded for) just signed a deal for $9M. Thats about the going rate for solid backups (i.e., guys who are probably more like 30% playtime guys rather than 15-20% playtime guys). Legitimate starting catchers get paid substantially more.

If you are basing it off Higashioka, then yes I guess you can sign a very old catcher for 2/12. I do not think he is a good bet to be a top 15 catcher over that contract. Hes never been more than a part-time player. D'arnaud is at a similar place; hell be 36 years old on opening day (and will play the entire year of the second year of the deal at 37). These are not guys who are starting catchers and are borderline to be able to be on a roster in the so called second year of the deals.

Hedges who just signed for like $5M literally cant hit and makes Kevin Cash look like a silver slugger.

Carson Kelly is a decent sense of the market (although it may be a stretch to say that he is a top 15 guy; hes at least close and is not ancient). We can see what he gets, but ill be shocked if its not $12-15M+ a year.

I think youre biggest mistake is assuming that because most of the good catchers are on pre-arb or arb deals that you can somehow get a good one at the 10th or even 15th largest deal. That's just not an accurate view of the market.

 

[20Ks]

9.

I strongly assume they have the parameters in place for an extension, and when that is announced, if the poll is still open, I'll be changing my vote to a 10 then.

I think you are right. CAA made it difficult to trade him at the deadline so my guess is it is all been hammered out, buying out some arb years at say 5/100 with a couple of player options say 7/160 (spitballing)

I am not a salary/luxury tax expert (I'm barely an understander) but when would they announce it so not to take a tax hit in '25, and how would a signing bonus/deferrals be calculated?

 

[axx]

IMO, the medicals must be really awful for the White Sox not want to pay him themselves.

 

[Diamond Don Aase]

LOL on nitpicking. It was simple because the ability to replace has such disparity

But on your points is there some catcher alternate reality I'm missing? Since less than15 catchers make $6m a year and thats including the 3 free agents that signed for around or over that this year.
I didn't understand the second nitpick so consider it a win for you.

The last top-15 catcher to reach free agency was Wilson Contreras, who signed for almost $18M annually through his age-35 season. Will Smith and Sean Murphy signed long-term extensions during their arbitration years for $14M and more than $12M, respectively, salaries depressed by the early years of the contracts covering arbitration rather than free agency. Many of the best catchers— Raleigh, Wm. Contreras, Rutschman— are just entering arbitration and will likely be paid less than $6M despite being worth much more in an open market. Many other top 10 catchers— Bailey, Moreno, Alvarez— are not even eligible for arbitration yet and will likely be paid less than $1M despite being worth at least ten times that total in an open market. Catchers are like NFL running backs— a disproportionate amount of their value is produced in their early years, when the league salary structure grossly depresses their compensation relative to their value.

 

[20Ks]

I am not sure what you are looking at, but Danny Jansen (yes the backup that the Red Sox traded for) just signed a deal for $9M. Thats about the going rate for solid backups (i.e., guys who are probably more like 30% playtime guys rather than 15-20% playtime guys). Legitimate starting catchers get paid substantially more.

If you are basing it off Higashioka, then yes I guess you can sign a very old catcher for 2/12. I do not think he is a good bet to be a top 15 catcher over that contract. Hes never been more than a part-time player. D'arnaud is at a similar place; hell be 36 years old on opening day (and will play the entire year of the second year of the deal at 37). These are not guys who are starting catchers and are borderline to be able to be on a roster in the so called second year of the deals.

Hedges who just signed for like $5M literally cant hit and makes Kevin Cash look like a silver slugger.

Carson Kelly is a decent sense of the market (although it may be a stretch to say that he is a top 15 guy; hes at least close and is not ancient). We can see what he gets, but ill be shocked if its not $12-15M+ a year.

I think youre biggest mistake is assuming that because most of the good catchers are on pre-arb or arb deals that you can somehow get a good one at the 10th or even 15th largest deal. That's just not an accurate view of the market.

You win. Fantastic study you got there. You totally blew my original argument out of the water . Just don't know how there are only 13 guys making over $6m if they are so valuable.

Whoa you think Carson Kelly is going to get over 12-15M ? Is that M for Millions?

 

[mikcou]

The last top-15 catcher to reach free agency was Wilson Contreras, who signed for almost $18M annually through his age-35 season. Will Smith and Sean Murphy signed long-term extensions during their arbitration years for $14M and more than $12M, respectively, salaries depressed by the early years of the contracts covering arbitration rather than free agency. Many of the best catchers— Raleigh, Wm. Contreras, Rutschman— are just entering arbitration and will likely be paid less than $6M despite being worth much more in an open market. Many other top 10 catchers— Bailey, Moreno, Alvarez— are not even eligible for arbitration yet and will likely be paid less than $1M despite being worth at least ten times that total in an open market. Catchers are like NFL running backs— a disproportionate amount of their value is produced in their early years, when the league salary structure grossly depresses their compensation relative to their value.

Exactly, its really hard to get a good catcher in free agency and if you do, you are absolutely paying for it.

You can also look to JT Realmulto who signed for 5/115M. Generally, catchers get to MLB late due to the complexities of the position and their bodies break down quickly. For the few that are still good and project to be good for a few years at free agency, they get paid well (although perhaps on short deals due to the aging realities).

The rest of the free agents are predominantly second catchers who are expecting to play 50-60 games a year and yes will often go for $6-$8M a year.

 

[mikcou]

You win. Fantastic study you got there. You totally blew my original argument out of the water . Just don't know how there are only 13 guys making over $6m if they are so valuable.

Whoa you think Carson Kelly is going to get over 12-15M ? Is that M for Millions?

Because they are all pre-arb or arb players. Take a look at the post above yours. Catchers dont last long and its predominantly (as a starter) a young mans position. There are all of 3-4 or so guys in the top 20 catcher who have even reached FA. One is Kelly and then you can look to Realmuto and wilson Contreras - they both got paid $20M+ a year.