The Red Sox paid a premium for two years of a pitcher whose 146 innings in 2024 not only represent a career-high but represent two-thirds of the innings he has thrown in his major league career. While they were high-quality innings and Crochet can reasonably be expected to approximate that production during his two remaining years of control, Boston continues to build rotations heavily reliant on pitchers more likely to throw 130 innings or fewer than 180 or more. That does not innately inhibit a successful season, but complementing such a rotation with a bullpen lacking multi-inning options would seem to narrow the path. Perhaps a return to health from Garrett Whitlock and Michael Fulmer will provide those relief options, but betting the farm based on the recovery of a 32-year-old that was exposed to the Rule 5 draft seems less than optimal.
Those concerns are compounded by the acquisition cost. Montgomery and Teel are a painful pairing but understandably a necessary one when acquiring high-level talent. Gonzalez and Meidroth, particularly in tandem, seem much less necessary. How many teams could have matched— much less beaten— Montgomery and Teel? The Reds could not have without including Chase Burns nor could the Phillies have without including Andrew Painter, neither of which appears likely. Seattle seems better-positioned to trade a starting pitcher than acquire one, making the Mariners an improbable partner for the White Sox. The Padres reportedly deemed both Leo De Vries and Ethan Salas untouchable and the balance of the San Diego system is more minnows than whales. That leaves the Tigers, Cubs, and Mets. If those teams were willing to build a package around Max Clark, Matt Shaw, or Jett Williams, though, somebody somewhere would have said something sometime. Without such a headliner, even those teams would have been hard-pressed to present a comparable offer that was not predicated on some combination of Harvard-Westlake game film, Myrtle Beach park factors, or David Stearns’ mastery of the dark arts.
Gonzalez, in particular, seems too readily dismissed as inconsequential. He is a 22-year-old that already has succeeded as a starting pitcher in Double-A, making 24 appearances for Portland last season. While Gonzalez frequently struggled in the first dozen of those games (including nine starts), the next dozen (including 10 starts) were downright dirty. From June 28 to the end of the Sea Dogs’ season, he posted a 3.26 FIP and a 30% strikeout rate while reducing his walk rate by nearly 5% and continuing to suppress home runs (0.6 per nine innings). Gonzalez’s age, stuff, and overall track record compare well with recent draft picks Brody Brecht (Rockies) and Ben Hess (Yankees), each of whom received $2.7 million to sign in July— more than all but one remaining member of the Red Sox past three draft classes. The compressed window of two remaining option years to further refine his command diminishes Gonzalez’s value relative to those recent draftees, but he would still rank among the top 10 prospects in many systems and the top 12 in most. Perhaps the likes of Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz, Jedixson Paez, and Conrad Cason (apropos of nothing, happy birthday to Frankie Rodriguez) are better attuned to the developmental strengths of the Breslow-Bailey-Willard regime but, given this organization’s persistent struggles to develop starting pitching, I hesitate to minimize the impact of including such a high ceiling as a throw-in, especially when I question the necessity of that throw-in.
Ultimately, I grade the trade as 5– nothing to shoot your garage about but genuine concerns that I hope to be allayed by subsequent moves that are at least as focused on long-term team construction as short-term talent acquisition.
