Grade the Crochet Trade

[Lose Remerswaal]

No need to rehash the complaints or plaudits. The NEWS thread about the acquisition has some great pro and con analysis. But let's hear what everyone thinks. Hate it? Like it? Love it? Not giving a Wait and See option, as that's too easy

The board doesn't allow unlimited choices, so rank the trade from 1 to 10, with 1 being HATE IT and 10 being LOVE IT

 

[Devizier]

10 in terms of addressing a need, 6-7 in terms of value (paid the freight).

9 overall, since the former is more important.

 

[nayrbrey]

I’m at a 9 as well. It’s a lot to give up, but worth it for a top of the rotation starter.

 

[billy ashley]

Wrote this on social media:


Steep price for Boston to pay. A good haul for the White Sox. A ton of upside and a ton of risk for both teams.

Crochet is maybe the best pitcher in baseball on a pitch per pitch bases, but his health history and pitching style are terrifying. You could tell me he wins 3 Cy Youngs over the next 5 seasons and I would not be surprised. You could also tell me he never pitches 100 IP in a season again, and I would not be surprised.

For the White Sox, they're getting 2 top 100 prospects, an interesting bat and a change of scenary talented arm.

-Kyle Teel is first name in the headlines, but he's actually pretty low ceiling. He looks like a solid average defensive catcher, and a solid average offensive player. He's a guy that should have a long career in the majors, but probably won't stand out. Reports are he needs to work on some of the finer points of catching (framing, blocking, etc.) but he's an excellent athlete and a hard worker. Offensively, it's a good hit skill but not much power projection.

-Braden Montgomery is the lottory ticket, here. Switch hitter, would have been a top 5 pick in last years draft had he not had a leg injury late in the NCAA season. Corner outfielder so the bat has to carry, but he profiles to not be a liability out there, good athlete. Really high upside. Tons of raw power. Decent amount of swing and miss, though.

-Chase Meidroth is a guy who is a fabulous hitter but has no power to speak of. Good fielder at 3b/2b, stretch at SS. HAs done nothing but hit in the minors. Question is whether the hit skill can carry enough with very little ability to impact the ball. We've seen a number of guys like that flame out in the majors recently. Amazing approach, knows the strike zone incredibly well.

-Winkleman Gonzalez has filthy stuff and zero command. He's out of option years and has failed to stick in the rotaiton in the upper minors two seasons in a row. He did well when converted to a long relief role. 2 years ago he got some top 100 consideration. An intereting reclamation project. Someone who the Red Sox really didn't have space for, but another team might be able to fix.

 

[pokey_reese]

I gave it an 8 for now, as the team is hopefully much better for the next two years no matter what (and the potential specific value that comes from having a 'must watch' pitcher each time through the lineup), balanced against the steep cost in my presumed future value of Teel. If we get a fully healthy 2025 out of Crochet, or sign him to even a modestly team friendly extension, this becomes a 9 for me.

 

[normstalls]

I went 9 as well, but that is with the assumption he is extended beyond the next 2 years.

 

[johnnyfromspain]

I gave it a 10.
Sure, good prospects had to be sacrificed, but this is to be expected. You have to give quality players in exchange for quality players.
This is a great trade because it automatically makes the Red Sox a much better team for 2025, and beyond. Not only that, if offers the FO leverage for future negotiations in the rest of this offseason, as they are no longer desperate for starting pitching. They can choose to shop for more starting pitchers, or not. They can also concentrate on acquiring a C and perhaps a RH power hitter. But the team as is today, can surely compete for the American League East top spot.

 

[3_games_down]

9. The Red Sox can afford to overpay in prospect capital. The Dodgers, Mets and Yankees are seemingly unconcerned with the CBT. The Red Sox did an exciting thing today!

 

[shaggydog2000]

8. They gave up good prospects, but got a shot at having the most desirable thing in Baseball: an ace in his prime.

 

[The Filthy One]

I gave it an 8, but I'm feeling better and better about it the more I sit with it. This is exactly the sort of deal they've been hesitant to make the last few years. And I would much rather have starters who strike people out (while avoiding walks) than those who don't. So I think Crochet is a good bet to outperform Burnes and Fried starting immediately. Admittedly, those pitchers have a longer track record of success, but pitcher durability is too volatile to hang much on that.

 

[DavidTai]

9.

Free agency had its own risk, didn't think the risk of the extra years was worth it on an over 30 pitcher, and no guarantee that even if the Sox outbid everyone that the player wouldn't just go somewhere else anyway because he wanted to be closer to home.

Getting a potential ace at age 25 is amazing.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

9. I have concerns about Crochet’s ability to throw 150+ innings, and losing Teel and Montgomery hurt.

But maybe we just traded Swihart and Margot for 25 year old Chris Sale.

 

[Mantush]

I gave it a 5. I’m ambivalent. I know the models show the team barely overpaid, but I have concerns regarding Crochet’s ability to pitch effectively for an entire season. I’m also worried about his character. I recall reports that he would refuse to pitch for a contender last year if he was traded without an extension. I don’t think that’s the right attitude to have as an MLB player.

 

[BaseballJones]

10 in terms of addressing a need, 6-7 in terms of value (paid the freight).

9 overall, since the former is more important.

Exactly my feelings on the matter, right down to the actual overall grade.

 

[Brianish]

I gave it a six, but if we extend Crochet for a reasonable price, my grade will skyrocket. I'll raise it again if we get Burnes as well because then it looks like part of a precise, aggressive plan.

 

[Auger34]

I gave it a six, but if we extend Crochet for a reasonable price, my grade will skyrocket. I'll raise it again if we get Burnes as well because then it looks like part of a precise, aggressive plan.

Came to post this exact same thing.

I am at a 6 but if they can extend Crochet for something reasonable (IE not FA prices) then I go up to a 7. If he's not extended or he's extended at a ludicrous rate, I am down to a 5

 

[chrisfont9]

I gave it an 8 for now, as the team is hopefully much better for the next two years no matter what (and the potential specific value that comes from having a 'must watch' pitcher each time through the lineup), balanced against the steep cost in my presumed future value of Teel. If we get a fully healthy 2025 out of Crochet, or sign him to even a modestly team friendly extension, this becomes a 9 for me.

Exactly my take, get the extension and it's an easy 9. It's OK if the guys we shipped out end up being good. Until the White Sox eliminate us from the playoffs, it's not our problem.

 

[tims4wins]

I gave it a 5. I’m ambivalent. I know the models show the team barely overpaid, but I have concerns regarding Crochet’s ability to pitch effectively for an entire season. I’m also worried about his character. I recall reports that he would refuse to pitch for a contender last year if he was traded without an extension. I don’t think that’s the right attitude to have as an MLB player.

That was all because of his return from injury and innings limit.

I wrote this in the other thread, but I haven't been this excited to watch a Sox starter pitch since they traded for Sale.

I gave it an 8. The reality is it will be 10 if he pitches like an ace, regardless of how the prospects turn out.

 

[Fishercat]

INC.

If I'm grading it as it presently stands, it's a 5-6 purely because he's only got two years locked in and the Sox dealt four legit (two very good to great) prospects for him. If the Sox have him pitch for two years and let him go to free agency and get a comp pick back where maybe they take a new Chase Meidroth, that's only going to be worth it if he's among the best pitchers in baseball for those two years in the rotation for 25+ starts a year. It's a souped up version of the Burnes trade.

However, if the Sox do extend him to a non-insane deal, I'd probably creep this one up to an 8-9 or so. The price is fair from a deal perspective and as much as the Sox would love to have a cornerstone catcher, the Sox need that true ace caliber SP to really be in the running as a regular title contender. Crochet is one of the handful of arms who can do that, with risk of course. I'm just going to be more excited if he's doing this for Boston in 2029 than if he has two nice years in Boston and then cashes in for 10/400 in LA.

 

[Sin Duda]

I gave it a 5. I’m ambivalent. I know the models show the team barely overpaid, but I have concerns regarding Crochet’s ability to pitch effectively for an entire season. I’m also worried about his character. I recall reports that he would refuse to pitch for a contender last year if he was traded without an extension. I don’t think that’s the right attitude to have as an MLB player.

Don't equate unwillingness to pitch well beyond his previous innings high with a poor attitude. He, in essence, was saying, if you want me to endanget my arm health, then you have to give me assurance that I'll get paid long term. And I'm sure his agent put him up to it (as I would too if I was his agent). I have no idea what Crochet's attitude is like, but I read his position on getting an extension if traded as smart. Can you see it that way?

 

[AlNipper49]

A 10 would be for a fleecing which this was not, so a 9. Subtract one more for Teel instead of a prospect at a glut position.

8

Love the logic and strategy getting a younger pitching with elite skills. That part gets a 10 from me.

 

[WilhelmScream]

9

We got the best available starter. He's young and he wants an extension. Can't give it a 10 until the prospects flame out like Moncada and Kopech.

 

[ookami7m]

8: Right strategy to assess the biggest need the org has. Teel hurts but you have to pay big prices to get big ticket items. And we needed this ticket.

 

[scottyno]

JFC at the 5 people so far voting this a 1 or a 2. I'm sure they're the same people who have been screaming they need to improve the major league roster and they just got one of the better projected pitchers in baseball without touching the major league roster

 

[Ed Hillel]

This is an 8 for me, which becomes a 10 if/when they get a really nice long-term extension by leveraging his cheap next two seasons and prior injury history. And it's a 3 if they don't.

 

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

I gave it an 8, mostly because Connor Wong is now the only catcher on the 40-man.

 

[Traut]

It can only get so hard. While catching matters, it is hardly a position that causes teams to win championships. Pitching does win championships. They got a top of the line, young, starter. This is way better than dumping money on Burnes or Fried.

 

[Mantush]

Don't equate unwillingness to pitch well beyond his previous innings high with a poor attitude. He, in essence, was saying, if you want me to endanget my arm health, then you have to give me assurance that I'll get paid long term. And I'm sure his agent put him up to it (as I would too if I was his agent). I have no idea what Crochet's attitude is like, but I read his position on getting an extension if traded as smart. Can you see it that way?

Don't equate unwillingness to pitch well beyond his previous innings high with a poor attitude. He, in essence, was saying, if you want me to endanget my arm health, then you have to give me assurance that I'll get paid long term. And I'm sure his agent put him up to it (as I would too if I was his agent). I have no idea what Crochet's attitude is like, but I read his position on getting an extension if traded as smart. Can you see it that way?

That makes much more sense. I can understand his position then. I’m still not 100% sure it’s the correct attitude to have in a team sport, but it’s more tenable when put that way. That’s very different than how I recall the articles I read presenting it.

I’ll bump the grade up by 1 or 2. I think we gave up a lot, but he’s an incredible pitcher when healthy.

 

[Yaz4Ever]

9. Addresses a YUGE need for us without moving the top 3 prospects, Abreu, or Casas. Would’ve preferred moving Mayer and didn’t realize Teel was being shopped. Signing him to an extension now could make this a 10.

 

[shepard50]

I gave it an "I'm thrilled" 8. Yes, Crochet has injury history and a scary delivery, and the Ks could mean he will have high pitch counts. But he is a good bet to be an ace for years to come. And we need that...like, a lot.

Good haul for the White Sox, but that's what aces cost and odds are longer on prospects for a reason. I like that this signals GFIN, and what will really make this trade worthwhile for me, is getting a righty bat somewhere that can really hit for power.

 

[nvalvo]

I gave it an 8, mostly because Connor Wong is now the only catcher on the 40-man.

Mickey Gasper would like a word.

 

[pk1627]

Seems like an awful lot. I was there when the Sox paid great prospects for Pedro, Schilling, Beckett and Sale. Of all of these trades, I think Teel was a keeper.

However, it makes the team immediately better and tells me the contention window is wide open. 6

 

[Merkle's Boner]

9. I wanted either Burnes, Fried, or Crochet and so I’m happy we got one. Mayer is my binky so I’m cool with losing Teel.

 

[LogansDad]

Went with 8 for now. An extension makes it a 9.5/10. Glad Meidroth is going to get a chance to see an MLB roster.

 

[xc world cup]

Absolutely the right deal, for a reasonable price. And he's been seen wearing 45! And, CB needed to do something real that took courage and said, "we're in business". And, Crochet may be extendable. And, what if CB, et al, really can improve pitchers around the margins? Crochet looks devastating already. For me, the Sox have gotten much better on and off the field, by making this big move.

 

[24Dewey@Cooperstown]

That was all because of his return from injury and innings limit.

I wrote this in the other thread, but I haven't been this excited to watch a Sox starter pitch since they traded for Sale.

I gave it an 8. The reality is it will be 10 if he pitches like an ace, regardless of how the prospects turn out.

Of course the reality WILL BE a 10 if he pitches like an ace. BUT you cannot just toss out the “regardless” of how the prospects turn out. Short sightedness and nearsightedness will cripple a franchise. Just sayin’ for a friend….

 

[LogansDad]

Absolutely the right deal, for a reasonable price. And he's been seen wearing 45! And, CB needed to do something real that took courage and said, "we're in business". And, Crochet may be extendable. And, what if CB, et al, really can improve pitchers around the margins? Crochet looks devastating already. For me, the Sox have gotten much better on and off the field, by making this big move.

To be fair, I'm not sure I want Bailey fucking with Crochet, after he broke Giolito last year.

Let Crochet work, he's already one of the best in the game.

 

[20Ks]

They just got a cost controlled Ace. Without giving up anyone on their roster, or any of their top 3 prospects. To sweeten the pot his arb years until 2027 are dampened because of the CWS using him as a reliever, and then shutting him down last year. I only voted 10 because 11 wasn't an option. He will be extended because its in everybodys best interest.

For everyone concerned about getting a catcher. Those are available. 25 yr old aces not so much.

Anyone care how well Carl Pavano and Tony Armas jr's careers panned out?

 

[The_Powa_of_Seiji_Ozawa]

I'm at an 8 right now. I hate losing Teel at C, would have preferred to trade Mayer from that group given the infield depth in the system, even if Mayer's ceiling is higher. Teel has 1 full season of minor league ball under his belt, and I think his hitting is being underrated by some. But with that said, the team needs high end starting pitching and Crochet is as good a bet as anyone to become a potential long term ace if he remains healthy. My rating would go up to a 10 if Boston can ink him to a long term extension while adding another quality starting pitcher and an upgrade/complement at catcher, positioning them to contend in 2025 and beyond.

 

[pciprotti]

I went with 6. My prediction, for him with Sox, is that it looks like Clay Bucholtz' career from 2013-2017. One amazing injury-prone year, and then pretty washed after that. Not sayin that these two pitchers are anything alike, just in terms of overall impact on winning. It's a 6 because there's a shot it turns out far better.

 

[8slim]

9. A 10 would be when we acquired Sale and Beckett, because those guys had a longer track record. Aside from that, it's a killer deal.

 

[PrometheusWakefield]

10/10.

Garrett Crochet last year was the best pitcher in baseball on a per-inning basis and has every potential to be the kind of elite performer that this team has lacked for years. This team is now in prime position to have a pitcher of that level of ability for all of his prime years.

Kyle Teel is a high floor prospect who is likely to be an average major league regular. His best case scenario is an above-average bat who doesn't hurt you defensively at cheap money for his years of team control. It's wildly optimistic to expect anything more than that out of him. A catcher of his upside is available every offseason.

Branden Montgomery is the opposite kind of prospect, a promising athlete with a questionable hit tool who could be anything. Every year there are a dozen guys like that and two out of every three you never hear about again, because they hit a wall when it comes to making contact against elite pitching. Show me the guy can hit at AA before I care about trading him in a deal like this.

Chase Meredroith and Wilkelman Gonzalez are both guys nearing the point where the team either needed to commit to them at the major league level or not, and in both cases the answer is not.

People who are negative about this trade are exaggerating the value of the guys we gave up. They are also missing the many flaws on the free agent alternatives.

Blake Snell is a terrible bet to stay healthy and effective through his 30s and was always going to stay on the West Coast anyway. Corbin Burnes has serious red flags in his declining peripherals and performance in measurements like Stuff+, which shows reduced break and poorer outcomes on the cutter that is his signature pitch. Max Fried is fine and I wanted him but he's only had one season with 4+ WAR, and I don't think you can count on him 1.55 BB/9 rate again.

I bet by this time next year two of those three contracts look bad. The problem isn't just that they are huge money it's that they are huge money for guys who just aren't that great.

This was the best way to improve the biggest two weaknesses on our team, which are starting pitching and the absence of elite talent and we didn't give away anything that isn't replaceable.

 

[P'tucket rhymes with...]

Nine for me, and I say that as someone who probably wouldn't have made the trade during my GM-for-a-day fantasy. High risk, but with a potentially very high reward. Dinged a point for Teel rather than Mayer, although CB probably had little control over that. ChiSox actually did well to wait until Fried was off the market, as it probably raised the pressure and price for more than one GM out there.

Edit--or, what @The_Powa said above, including the assumption that he'll be extended.

 

[NextBigThing8184]

They just got a cost controlled Ace. Without giving up anyone on their roster, or any of their top 3 prospects. To sweeten the pot his arb years until 2027 are dampened because of the CWS using him as a reliever, and then shutting him down last year. I only voted 10 because 11 wasn't an option. He will be extended because its in everybodys best interest.

For everyone concerned about getting a catcher. Those are available. 25 yr old aces not so much.

Anyone care how well Carl Pavano and Tony Armas jr's careers panned out?

You can’t possibly be comparing the Pedro deal to this one

this is a good trade. But Crochet has thrown 219 innings in his career. Pedro had almost 800 of incredible production before being acquired

nobody cares about Pavano and Armas for the same reason nobody cares about Margot or Hanley Ramirez or Moncada/Kopech. Those deals worked out

trading good/great prospects isn’t a bad thing but let’s not pretend Crochet is anywhere near the established presence that Pedro (or Sale, or even Kimbrel or Beckett) were

 

[loneredseat]

I think I know less than most people on this board, so I was really, really glad to see that so many of you disagreed with me (I gave it a 2). But I also did not make the assumption that we'd extend him.
And sorry scottyno. My thought that was we traded 4 of our top 10 (ish) prospects for two years of control. And that's from a good farm system. 24 years for 2. That was my thinking.

 

[TheWave]

I love the trade. Top of the rotation starter is not a dime a dozen, and you're going to give up something to get something. You can project talent all you want, but this big market team can't be in rebuild mode forever. This team has the economics to acquire any established MLB free agent talent to replace any of those four prospect IF they were to pan out in the future. Do you really want to be saddled with Fried and his eight year deal at his age?

 

[8slim]

I think I know less than most people on this board, so I was really, really glad to see that so many of you disagreed with me (I gave it a 2). But I also did not make the assumption that we'd extend him.
And sorry scottyno. My thought that was we traded 4 of our top 10 (ish) prospects for two years of control. And that's from a good farm system. 24 years for 2. That was my thinking.

I think it's more reasonable to assume that we will extend him. Why do this if we're not committed to extending him? It'd make no sense. I don't think Breslow is a dummy. And we literally know that Crochet wants an extension. He demanded it of potential acquiring teams just 5 months ago.

Also not sure I follow the logic that each of the 4 guys we shipped out would definitely spend 6 years on the Sox major league roster. If one of them did we'd probably consider that a win.

 

[Beomoose]

I'm knocking it to 7 mainly on the Catcher question, Teel wasn't just a Big 4 he was the only C in the system who looked like he could be an everyday player in the near future. Its still a trade that we needed to do and I have no issue with people going 8 on it, just remain concerned about our future behind the dish.

 

[pedro1918]

I gave it a seven.

Obviously, if Crochet is extended, and excels, it will go up. I expect both of those things to happen, but it is not guaranteed.

If Teel goes on to be a stud, it will go down. I was looking forward to having a home grown stud catcher for a decade plus. I know, it's a crap shoot but it was nice to think about. I don't really put Henderson in the equation because he has yet to play a game for the organization and we dealt from a position that has numerous good options.

Of course if Crochet turns into a stud, perennial CY candidate, what Teel does won't really matter. Which is kind of the point.

So maybe I just typed myself into an 8?

 

[FlexFlexerson]

I provisionally give this an 8. Great pitcher and the price in prospects was high but neither side fleeced the other and the needs fit each organization pretty well. Watching the Sox got immediately more enjoyable with the signing, which is what we're all here for at the end of the day. I'll bump this up to a 9-10 if we get a few more pieces this off-season that indicate we'll be using Crotchet's two years to compete for a championship and/or if we get an extension done that makes him an anchor for multiple title runs.

I dunno about our FA approach and the constraints ownership may have there, but this feels like it's in Breslow's wheelhouse and I'm quite happy with the process and results. Makes me feel more optimistic for this club than I've felt in a while.