Gordon Hayward 2020: I'm standing here in pieces and you're having delusions of grandeur!

Status
Not open for further replies.

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
34,457
What are we rooting for tomorrow? Option pick-up? Extension at sub-max dollars? Opt-out?
Ideally I think it's an opt-out.

The 2 best scenarios are:
#1 Opt out and re-sign at lower money nxt week to duck under the tax.
#2 S&T

Of course it opens up the worst option.... losing him for nothing.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,678
If he's leaving it's for a contender that has a real role for him, so he's going by sign & trade. You'd just like it to be the right contender.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
34,457
I guess. I wont Pretend to get nba cap math. It my clueless mind having one guy decide not to take 33 million should mean you have it to give to someone else, but I know the nba is way more complicated than that
Yeah, basically the Celtics are over the cap, but it's a soft cap so you can go over for your own players. So the situation with Hayward is you want to either sign him, or sign and trade him to a team that also has no cap space. If he walks.... you still have no cap space but can't sign anyone.
 

scottyno

late Bloomer
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2008
11,304
I guess. I wont Pretend to get nba cap math. It my clueless mind having one guy decide not to take 33 million should mean you have it to give to someone else, but I know the nba is way more complicated than that
They could replace him with something like a $15m-$20m player maybe, depending on how many draft picks they make and Kanter and Ojeleye's options
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
34,457
They could replace him with something like a $15m-$20m player maybe, depending on how many draft picks they make and Kanter and Ojeleye's options
No they couldn't. Even without any of the options, renouncing all the cap holds and getting rid of all the picks, they'd only be 11.5M under the cap.

There is no scenario where the Celtics will be signing a major FA this offseason (except something insane like trading Kemba into the Knicks' cap space, and getting basically no players back.)
 

scottyno

late Bloomer
SoSH Member
Dec 7, 2008
11,304
No they couldn't. Even without any of the options, renouncing all the cap holds and getting rid of all the picks, they'd only be 11.5M under the cap.

There is no scenario where the Celtics will be signing a major FA this offseason (except something insane like trading Kemba into the Knicks' cap space, and getting basically no players back.)
Yeah I think you're right, hoopshype doesn't include team options, which confused me, I was going off the 123m+ number. Regardless, there's no free agent they could sign for any amount of space they can realistically get that matches what Hayward gives them anyway.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,678
There is no scenario where the Celtics will be signing a major FA this offseason (except something insane like trading Kemba into the Knicks' cap space, and getting basically no players back.)
I think at this point everyone knows that Westbrook is going to the Knicks for #8 and a bunch of draft picks. And Harden is going to end up in Philly for a haul. The east is going to be loaded next year. Boston’s going with the hand they have plus whatever they get for Hayward.

The Pacers have to be groaning about these deals, since their offer of “We’ll give you our bad deals in exchange for Hayward because you have no choice” isn’t going to work. I’m willing to bet that there are teams that are willing to pay up for Hayward at this point,
 

Pablo's TB Lover

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 10, 2017
5,959
Yeah if Jrue Holiday is worth a stockpile of picks then the Celtics must have Gordo's trade price sky high right now. Jrue Holiday career = 16.9 PER / 43.0 Win Shares, Gordon Hayward career = 17.5 PER / 53.Win Shares (both 30 y.o.). It could be yet another situation where Ainge's reputation of fleecing other GMs combines with the high actual cost, and no one wants to be on the other side of his phone call.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
34,457
Yeah if Jrue Holiday is worth a stockpile of picks then the Celtics must have Gordo's trade price sky high right now. Jrue Holiday career = 16.9 PER / 43.0 Win Shares, Gordon Hayward career = 17.5 PER / 53.Win Shares (both 30 y.o.). It could be yet another situation where Ainge's reputation of fleecing other GMs combines with the high actual cost, and no one wants to be on the other side of his phone call.
Yeah, they aren't comparable in any way. Hayward can become an UFA today if he chooses, the Celtics have far less leverage.

Of last night's trades, the Bogdanovic trade is the closer one. Now Hayward is better, but he's also not restricted.
 

NomarsFool

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 21, 2001
8,156
The wrinkle is that Hayward can only go a few places as an UFA. So, if he wants to go to a specific place (likely), the C's do have leverage.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
34,457
The wrinkle is that Hayward can only go a few places as an UFA. So, if he wants to go to a specific place (likely), the C's do have leverage.
Sure, but not much. We aren't getting a Jrue like deal, we're getting something a bit better than what Bogdanovic brought in. Sac had MORE leverage in that situation since they could keep him as an RFA.

The idea that we're going to get anywhere near value for Hayward in a trade is a pipe dream. If he goes it is going to be for far less than what he's worth, that's how S&T work.

Let's look at recent S&T deals:
Bogdanovic (RFA)- Donte and filer
Kemba- the right to overpay Terry Rozier
Brogdon (RFA)- a 1st and 2nd
Durant (traded WITH a 1st)- D'Angelo Russel on a max and filler
Satoransky (RFA)- two 2nds
Butler- wild 4 teamer, PHI got Richardson out of it.
 

PedroKsBambino

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 17, 2003
31,185
I think you have to separate out two scenarios:

1. He opts in. In this scenario, you're just trading him as a rental and you'll get whatever the rental is worth.
2. He does a sign-and-trade whether as part of opt-in/extension or separate after opting-out. In this scenario, I agree with Cellar Door that the return is going to be a lot less than 100 cents on the dollar because the market is highly constrained. The one place you may get more than expected is if the team he wants to go to is capped out and can only do the deal if it's a swap of iffy contracts...which for lux tax reasons is not the most likely for Celts to participate in
 

Pablo's TB Lover

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 10, 2017
5,959
Yeah, they aren't comparable in any way. Hayward can become an UFA today if he chooses, the Celtics have far less leverage.

Of last night's trades, the Bogdanovic trade is the closer one. Now Hayward is better, but he's also not restricted.
I'm not saying *I* think Hayward is worth that, just that the C's probably are pricing him higher even though the Jrue overpay by the Bucks was clearly done to make their team better now AND to improve their chances of keeping Giannis (and did I mention it was a crazy overpay!). It would be an upset to me if, for example, the C's took the rumored Indiana offer of Myles Turner and flotsam/jetsam in return. But if they have other moving parts such as a Gallinari S&T ready maybe they decide the overall calculus works in their favor.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,678
Indiana is the team that wants him, their We’ll give you bad contracts for Gordo or he’s going to the Hawks offer just died. Especially if Hayward picks up the option.
 

NomarsFool

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 21, 2001
8,156
One thing that is difficult to evaluate is whether the Celtics want him back next year with his opt in contract (due to luxury tax issues). It's certainly not the exact same situation by any means, but the Patriots didn't get anything in return for trading Gronk to TB because they couldn't afford to keep Gronk. I would certainly like Hayward back next year, but I don't know if ownership thinks the financials are worth it. So, how much leverage does Hayward have over the Celtics? If they don't want the return that - for example Indiana is offering - can Hayward threaten to simply opt-in? Is that a problem for Boston?
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,678
Hayward opting in makes it easy for Boston to trade him to the Hawks. But in reality with the draft picks being tossed around Indiana can probably convert Oladipo into the capital necessary for a Hayward deal.
 

128

Member
SoSH Member
May 4, 2019
10,016
Hayward opting in makes it easy for Boston to trade him to the Hawks. But in reality with the draft picks being tossed around Indiana can probably convert Oladipo into the capital necessary for a Hayward deal.
Maybe I'm missing sometime, but why in the world would Hayward want to be a Hawk?
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,678
Maybe I'm missing sometime, but why in the world would Hayward want to be a Hawk?
If Hayward picks up his option today he has no say in where he plays next year.

Why not? Some players take pride in pushing a lottery team into the playoffs. If he can get a near max deal from the Hawks, why wouldn't he?
And even beyond this, this a roleplayer draft. The Hawks might place a higher value on getting Trae Young playoff minutes than on adding another roleplayer. Especially as it looks like there's a real talent migration East that's going to make it tougher on the Hawks otherwise.
 

128

Member
SoSH Member
May 4, 2019
10,016
Why not? Some players take pride in pushing a lottery team into the playoffs. If he can get a near max deal from the Hawks, why wouldn't he?
If it's all about dollars and cents, yes, but ATL is the Trae Young Show, for the foreseeable future, and if Hayward is serious about wanting to win an NBA title, I can think of many more desirable destinations.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,678
I mean the scuttlebutt is that he's headed to Indiana, so he can't be that serious about winning a title.

One other geographic reality to consider, the Haywards apparently spent $3 million on their new home in Fishers, Indiana. So he's only a quick commuter flight from Chicago (or probably a two hour drive since Fishers is northeast of Indianapolis).
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
55,298
deep inside Guido territory
I mean the scuttlebutt is that he's headed to Indiana, so he can't be that serious about winning a title.

One other geographic reality to consider, the Haywards apparently spent $3 million on their new home in Fishers, Indiana. So he's only a quick commuter flight from Chicago (or probably a two hour drive since Fishers is northeast of Indianapolis).
Judging by his wife's social media, I believe they moved the family back to Indiana as well.
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
34,457
Sounds like both sides want to see what happens at the draft.

Makes me think they're looking at.....
1. S&T sending out Hayward
2. trade Kemba, long-term deal for Hayward


Though I guess it could be a... "I don't know if I want to be back, but I'll hold off the decision until I see the roster"
 

Cellar-Door

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
34,457
Yeah, the two sides know where the other stands at this point, so it wouldn't be about getting more time to talk extension.
It might be about clearing cap space before it though. One of the holdups on a Hayward long term deal is the luxury tax implications. If Hayward has a number and the Celtics will match it only if they trade Kemba, makes sense for both sides to push it back to give more time to find a Kemba deal.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
So...working on a long-term deal or working on a trade?
Not necessarily mutually exclusive. Gordon’s people obv have made it known they want long-term security even if it is well short of $34m AAV and Ainge wants to keep all options open....as does Gordon. Makes sense for both sides.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 24, 2002
48,204

PedroKsBambino

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 17, 2003
31,185
I'm with B Robb--feels very likely that Hayward would prefer to opt-in than be a FA given the ask for a delay. Which is good for Celtics, but still leaves open the question of whether that is to facilitate a trade, reach a long-term agreement with Celtics, or what
 

the moops

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 19, 2016
4,700
Saint Paul, MN
I'm liking the ATL angle here. They can take him into cap space so the question is who/what is fair compensation.

Mileage may vary, but desireables from ATL include the #6 pick, Huerter, Collins, future picks. Maybe Capela? Maybe Dedmon?
 

bankshot1

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 12, 2003
24,651
where I was last at
I'm guessing both sides knows his market, whether its 3 x 34 or 4 x 22, so its probaby not haggling over a last $, or but where his options to play are, and what the Celts can get in return for a pretty good great white hope with an injury history. .
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,678
I'm liking the ATL angle here. They can take him into cap space so the question is who/what is fair compensation.

Mileage may vary, but desireables from ATL include the #6 pick, Huerter, Collins, future picks. Maybe Capela? Maybe Dedmon?
I doubt Boston has any interest in Capela's contract. Dedmon as a virtual expiring (only $1 million is guaranteed in '22) they might do as a solid to the Hawks in exchange for extra draft capital.
 

bakahump

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 8, 2001
7,518
Maine
Gordo and the 14 (and 30 if you have to) to ATL for 6 And someone that makes the money work. (Collins?)

I would love to weasel a future pick.....but as has been said Gordons Value isnt that great.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,678
You don't need to take any contracts for the money to work as the Hawks have plenty of cap space in a few days.
 

amarshal2

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 25, 2005
4,913
You don't need to take any contracts for the money to work as the Hawks have plenty of cap space in a few days.
Yeah, but I think you want to. Otherwise the cap space goes poof.

(Edit: you may not want $34M back due to repeater issues but you don't want $0)
 
Status
Not open for further replies.